BOSTON MARATHON PACING STRATEGY

[@RunningOtaku]

Ok, so as per John Nagel's request, I ran the numbers taking a look at how pacing in the first 10K effected the final 7.7K. It turns out that for those who ran the first 10K very fast (greater than 5% faster than their overall pace) and those that ran it moderately fast (between 1% to 5% faster than overall pace) there was virtually no correlation on their pace in the final 7.7K. The r2 was less than 0.1. For those that ran the first 10K slower than the overall pace, there is some evidence to suggest that they ran the last 7.7K relatively faster. Now, of course, what really matters is the finishing time, not the pace on the last 7.7K. Guess what? It turned out that there was virtually zero correlation (r2 = 0.0015) between the 1st 10K pace and the overall finish time. Some people blew up, some ran negative splits, some ran fairly even paced. The strongest correlation I found was comparing the 1st half marathon to the 2nd half. The r2 was 0.495 indicating that there's evidence that those who ran the 1st half relatively slower ran the 2nd half relatively faster...but that's not really an earth shattering discovery, is it? :-) My guess is that model needs to take into account something on which I didn't have the data-- how good of a downhill runner the subject was. I understand that many people blow up their quads in that first 5K, but there are some highly efficient downhill runners that probably descended very smoothly with relatively minimal impact to their quads. I'm a bad downhill runner, so I'll revise my strategy just a bit- take the first 10K only slightly faster than my 6:50 (4:15) goal pace. In other words, I'll probably run just 5-10 seconds per mile (3-6 seconds per km) faster in the first 10K and hope I don't lose too much time on the Newton hills.

[@xanderschelfhout354]

I like your data driven approach very much. I prefer to look at the paces of people who didn't blew up but still ran a relatively fast time for their AG. Seems that taking a cautious approach the first 10k and pushing to keep the pace up around Newton hills leads to good results

[@RunningOtaku]

@@xanderschelfhout354 Good luck and write back to share how your race went!

[@pilarwhitworth7137]

It sounds you are very fit, and love data, which I do too. Having run Boston 5 times, and experienced every time a different result, I would suggest to use effort (RPE) and maybe HR, to manage your race. It’s going to be warmer than ideal racing conditions on Monday, so your pacing might not work. All the best, enjoy it too.

[@lopscratch]

I just ran Boston following your video and it worked perfectly. Thank you very much for sharing.

[@dunc0029]

Thought I had perhaps already commented this, but, for the sake of the audience, the leap in logic he has made here is that "This is the AVERAGE way people break 3 hours at Boston, therefore this is the OPTIMAL way to run Boston." What he apparently failed to consider is that some of those who just broke 3 may well have been targeting 2:30/40/50 and massively bonked. A good rule of thumb is - if your pre-race plan involves a massive positive split, um think again, maybe even ESPECIALLY in the case of a large downhill followed by uphills. (You'll destroy your quads and be done before the hills.) Another good rule of thumb - don't try to go for a sub-3 until you have a 1:25-or-so half under your belt. Planning to break 3 (AT BOSTON, of all places) with a 3:09 marathon PR and a 1:30 half PR is a plan to be disappointed.

[@JamesHill-n4z]

I came to make the comment about the flawed logic. I was waiting for some correction for how well they ran based on their qualifying time or something. Not sure I will follow this strategy on race day. I will also comment that running a 1:25 half and having potential to run a 1:25 are are not the same thing. My HM PB is 1:28 high and I ran sub 3. This was because my HM PB was from the previous season and I didnt race a HM during the marathon block. I did do some 25 km + workouts though to indicated to me sub 3 was possible.

[@greatleapforwards]

i just watched this in preparation for Boston this year and my half PB is 1:25 with a 3:09 Marathon PB and there is not a hope in hell i would be going for sub 3 at boston. My plan is flat 7:00s and i am going to try keep the first 5 miles to 6:55 max and then then next 10 at 7s with 7:05's though the newton hills and hopefully have enough to maintain an average 7 to the finish. I see he blew up spectacularly and finished 3:18

[@jackwright3098]

@@greatleapforwardsyou don’t think you could go sun 3 with that half PB time? My half PB is 1:27 and I’m targeting 3:08.

[@greatleapforwards]

@@jackwright3098 too much of a big leap on a hilly course. I will wait for Amsterdam later in the year

[@jackwright3098]

@@greatleapforwardsgood luck out there tmmw. Hopefully not too hot for us.

[@AdrianSegovia]

Thanks for the comment. My concern is after breakheart keep the pace in 4,20… if in this moment you go to 4,30 you don’t reach the goal. I guess is smart to do Boston in Positive because the hill at the end. I think that is brilliant. And risky :)

[@AndrewBPaterson]

I'm running my first Boston in a bit over 7 weeks. I've watched lots of "pacing Boston" videos, and this one is by far the best! Maybe it's because I'm so data-driven, but your analysis is *exactly* what I've been looking for! Thanks!!

[@RunningOtaku]

Fantastic! Take the first 10K nice and easy- Enjoy the experience while saving your legs on the downhill. The Newton hills were much smaller than I thought, so you won’t lose that much time going up them. Good luck!

[@AndrewBPaterson]

@@RunningOtaku Thanks so much! That's the plan - I'll let you know how it goes 🙏

[@mdgeorge4993]

@@RunningOtaku did you manage to get your sub3? Did the strategy work? Thanks

[@RunningOtaku]

@@mdgeorge4993 I was on pace at the top of the Newton hills but fell apart with pretty sever leg pain and had to walk-jog in for a 3:18. My legs were getting sore at the 3 mile mark, so I think it had something to do with a minor injury going into the race. Good luck to you!

[@mdgeorge4993]

@@RunningOtaku sorry to hear that. What are we... Just over 4 weeks from race day and I'm trying not to do anything silly from here on in. I get the sense Boston is a course that takes no prisoners if you have any sort of injury. Thanks again for the video. Your insights have been really helpful.

[@scottbrown576]

I just completed the 2022 Marathon (126th Boston) and this was AMAZINGLY helpful. It both set my course expectations for what was ahead and gave me a mental goal for each of the 4 sections. I was nearly spot on for all four. Great analysis.

[@RunningOtaku]

Fantastic, congratulations!🎉🎈🍾

[@shannonsides6017]

I wish I had seen this before 2022’s running! My mentality was, just run moderately easy and then there’s no way you won’t neg split. Wellllll I still didn’t negative split and now I actually understand when people say that neg splitting at Boston might not be a good strategy. To adjust my paces to 3:30 I’m going to use the percentage ahead and behind pace you used and hope I don’t mess up the math 🤣 Awesome video, how’d you do?

[@kabejota1]

Thank you for the video and thank you that you also used metric system too.

[@HughCulver]

I'm running Boston this year (in 2 weeks) and this was fascinating! I really like the breakdown into 4 zones.

[@MrMarkbad]

Very useful, I am going to run the numbers on my 2:53 GP and 42 yr old. This gave me a very interesting perspective.

[@boazsachs]

I will definitely be rooting for you to make that sub 3 mark. Those are some monster predicted times and I love the level of analysis. I only started running seriously in the last few years (following a football/soccer injury) and it's inspiring to know that despite being well past my 20s there are still many PBs to strive for.

[@RunningOtaku]

Boaz Sachs For sure. The data shows that we are at peak condition between 20-35 years old and then lose 0.5% to 1.0% per year thereafter. There’s lots of opportunity to set PRs well into our 40s if we train harder than we did when we were young.

[@peterknowles1170]

Just found this, and I don't know if you're still active on these posts, but I found this extremely interesting. It even prompted me to go find my 5K splits from the 2019 Boston (my first) as I prepare for 2022 (my second). I'd never analyzed my splits before; I was so disappointed in my time (collapse/bonk) that I've never really looked back at them. But along with your course description and analysis of paces and course breakdown, it was worth looking at them and finding out what I DON"T want to do in 2 weeks. Hope you're still active and maybe even headed to Boston (or Eugene) this year. I live right down the river from you, east of Portland, though I doubt I've seen you at any of the local races. You're much faster than I am. Anyway, thanks for the analysis and thoughts as I get ready for 4/18/22,

[@RunningOtaku]

That’s great. Bonking is never fun, but we can learn a ton from our mistakes! Good luck in Boston. I moved from Portland a year ago an am living in a small mountain town in Colorado…learning how to live And train at 9000’.

[@PeaceForBacons]

Great video. Thank you. I am going to run Boston this year - same age, same target and I love the approach so big big thank you!

[@DrewMartig]

Great video! Analytical and practical! Love it

[@russmcinnis9360]

This is a good analysis. I have ran Boston 13 times. My largest negative split (~2 minutes) was my fastest time (3:12 49 year old male). My slowest times were large positive splits. I set my pacing for lots slower than average pace for opening miles and then go super slow up hills and faster downhills. I always use mymarathonpace and set it for slow start and no fade and no back off downhills.

[@RunningOtaku]

Fantastic! Are you running it this weekend?

[@russmcinnis9360]

@@RunningOtaku yes. I had a big running break. I had a calf injury and started running 1/2 mile long run in July. I am plugging my splits into pacepro. never used it, but if something happens I can go with the pace band.

[@SethJamesDeMoor]

Woot woot!

[@gregbaker7572]

love your vlogs!

[@SpaolanseSaulo]

Really good and useful video. I will be running my first Boston and your video help me a lot.

[@ksteege]

I will add more to this but wanted to make a few comments from someone who has run the race (and trained on parts of the course) multiple times, I believe that your analysis shows well what does happen on the course but not necessarily how or why... I think there is certainly some validity in doing the analysis of times, but the reason fo rthe times maay be quite varied... I have run a lot of places - Boston is the greatest race - you are in for a real treat - people all up and down the course - no real dead areas at all which helps. For the start I will quote the famous Boston runner Bill Rodgers, if you feel comfortable at the start - you are going too fast... its very easy to get caught up with the excitement at the start, because it will certainly be there, I am going to go through more of your older vids specifically to get a little better idea of you and your running. The Newton Hills are not horrible taken in and of themselves - what makes them tougher is the fact that they come after beating your quads up a lot over the 16 miles leading up to them.... When you make that right turn onto Commonwealth Ave., the uphill looks a little daunting but I would say the hardest parts are there at the start of them and again towards the end right before BC - My best strategy there is to take them as 3 sets of two hills (or 6) you can just see it pausing your video at 2:07. The first one isnt bad but its a kicker after the big downhill right before mile 16, but you are on your way its a nice up really short pause and then another, once you get up there is a nice general plateau that allows some good recovery before the next hill at mile 17, again it comes basically in two parts up and up again then a mile and a half recovery before you get to the big one which gives you a nice bump in the middle of it, dig in hard here because you are almost through one you hit the top there and see all the BC students and the campus you will be clear sailing there is nice downhill there to recover and get back up to speed. SO my own analysis would be more related to that 8K in the hills I dont know all of your marathoning experience here but My own perspective would be ease off a little more early be in the 6:40-45 range for most of the first 25-26K then plan on the 8K in the newton hills to be 7:05 or so - I think you will not be slower that final 8k from about 34 - 42k you can drop that back down under 7 minute pace and be on or better than your time goal...

[@RunningOtaku]

Kurt Steege Thanks, that is really helpful. Sometimes experience trumps data, huh? 😀. Just out of curiosity, if you look back at your past Bostons, how much did your pace fall off in the 25k-35k segment and we’re you able to get back to goal pace in that final 7.2K?

[@ksteege]

Running Otaku I ran it 4 times I will try to compile the times and get them back to you ASAP

[@ksteege]

@@RunningOtaku OK I went through my races and somehow I do not seem to have good numbers from the 2008 race - I am guessing they are files away somewhere but I dont have them at this time - I will keep looking but some interesting trends coming out as a review. First of all I am a bit slower than you and was more in the 3:15 range so instead of the just under 7 minute range you are shooting for I was in the just under 7:30 so a bit slower but I think the comparison is still valid. For the Newton Hills I will say that the times there are around where you analyzed (but I am talking just the 5 miles in the hills not the full 10K) pace drops off in the 20 - 30 second per mile range. I do not have the k splits for most just Mile times so I will break them up into 3 and 6 mile chunks. Take a look at this - first 5K pace for 3 races 7:12 pace, 7:17 pace, 7:32 pace - which yielded the best time - the middle one 7:16 (which coincidentally was a 7:40 opening mile) (5K splits 22:21, 22:37, and 23:21) The Next 10K was virtually identical across the board between 7:15 pace and 7:20 - the 2009 race was an aberration only because I did take a 45 second bathroom break downhil mile 4 faste around 7:10 followed by some hilliness in mile 5 which was 7:22 or 7:23 (second 5K avg out to about 7:15, third closer to 7:20) - one thing thats of note in this space - not sure why but it always brought a smile to my face right before Natick in mile 8 or 9 there was always a guy that would post the current Red Sox score and a sign that said shortcut to the finish - dont believehim... haha Miles 10,11,12 - run just under pace 5-7 seconds was best I think the really important thing here is maintaining calm and easy pace through here its relatively flat to rolling but nothing big in anyway save the time here for the hills. This 5k and the next one really sets you up for the rest of the race, in the race I ran well because I had eased off early - I was able to run a bit more consistently though here and while only a few seconds faster around 7:25 pace vs 7:27 the miles were more close in terms of time 2-3 second difference vs 5 second fluctuation in the one that wound up slower The next 3 miles 13,14,15 One thing here that is pretty mind blowing is the girls at Wellesley, the noise that is generated in the scream tunnel is absolutely insane, nothing else like it and when you pass it goes to nothing because they are facing the runners coming behind you. Again its flat to a slight up hill and what I found very interesting here is that I ran the exact same time for mile 15 in all 3 races - 7:42. The difference here then is mile 13 and 14 where I ran 13:59 for my worst race, 14:03 for my best race and 14:12 for my other effort. which leads me to believe this is not where you get over excited and push. Between 15 and 16 you have a big down hill so what ever you can do to save your quads there do it - again slower proved more advantageous for me here worst time overall was the fastest through here by about 5 seconds the three times I had in the mile were 7:32, 7:37, and 7:42, followed up by the beginning of the Newton Hills same races in order - 8:14, 8:02, 8:00, so in the cases listed the "lost" time in mile 16 was immediately made up and more in the 1st uphill. In the 2007 and 2009 years I was able to maintain 8 minute pace or just under through the hills, while in 2006 I kept sliding backwards from 8:14 - through to 10 minutes due to cramping and recovering but remaining at 8:30 pace or slower the rest of the race. In the two other races 2007 and 2009 I got through the toughest climb of the last hill in again 8:15, and then was able to immediately drop down to closer to race pace. in 2007 I got back down to 7:40 immediately after the hills and then back on 7:30ish pace for the rest of the race and felt amazing. in 2009 - my fitness was not as good as in 2006 or 2007 and it showed - but I was able to get through the race and enjoyed it the whole way back running between 7:50 and 8 minutes until I saw my family at 24 miles and slowed to chat a bit there but still ran faster than my 2006 (or 2008 time) Overall times here 2006 - 3:29, 2007 - 3:18, 2009 3:24 It should also be noted that the 2007 race was almost called off because of a NorEaster while not as bad as last year it was pretty windy and rainy in your face the whole way Anyway I hope this helps you Kurt

[@RunningOtaku]

Kurt Steege wow, this is super helpful! There weren’t many runners in the 80 I studied who were able to hit goal pace in that last 7K, so it looks like your 2007 performance was near perfect! It sounds like I can expect to lose a total of 90 seconds on the Newton hills and that I probably won’t be able to make it up in the last 7.2K. So I think I need to be 90 seconds ahead of pace at mile 16. I need to think about this more, but maybe something like 6:40/mile through the 6-mile mark and then 6:47/mile from mile 6 to 16. From 16-21 would be 7:08/mile and then pray that I can hold 6:50/mile from mile 21 to the finish. That would be 6:50/mile average for a 2:59:09. Throw in the bathroom break, and I’d be at around 2:59:50. 😄

[@ksteege]

@@RunningOtaku I think you certainly have a good mind set there - just realize that your first mile will be slow due to people - so my guess is more like 6:47 for the first 5k, then 6:40 for the next 10K then somewhere around 6:44 or so for the next few miles until the hills, 7:08 would be good through the hills would give you a bit more buffer to work with and be OK

[@kofuzi]

These are great charts

[@jackwright3098]

Kofuzi here getting excited for Boston too...

[@RunningOtaku]

Thanks, sorry for the delayed reply. My KZbin game isn’t what it used to be ;-)

[@jackbosley454]

I too am running Boston for the first time this year, and this is an interesting breakdown. I don’t know if it’s best to look at the pacing strategies of people of your same ability level, as they might not have the most efficient strategies. It would be interesting to look at people who have run it multiple times, and see the effect of pacing strategies on overall time using people as their own control. However, amongst all runners, the pace profiles tend to look the same. Whether you start off 3% or 5% faster than goal pace, I don’t think the overall time will differ too greatly. It’s hard to go wrong since you adapt to whatever pace you started at. The dilemma that I’m having is that I simultaneously know that banking time is less efficient and that running faster than goal pace on downhills is more efficient. I’m a relatively good downhill runner, so I think I can get away with going as fast as 5:45/mi for the first 5 or so miles (with a goal pace of 6:06/mi). I intend to go out faster than my goal avg pace, but how much faster I will probably leave up to how I feel at the moment. Hopefully my less scientific approach will work out.

[@RunningOtaku]

Jack Bosley For experienced runners, perhaps running by feel is the best approach. On a flat course, pacing for even- or slightly negative- splits is probably optimal. For a hilly course, there are two factors at play: 1.) the cardiovascular & metabolic costs of various paces and 2.) the muscular/skeletal toll of running downhill. I’m sure there is far more precise scientific terminology, but I think you get the point. Basically we need to factor whether or not our race will be foiled solely because we blew out our quads running downhill too fast. Sounds like you are a good runner that can minimize the added stress of running downhill. Unfortunately, I’m a heal striking, back-leaning mess when going downhill. 😟

[@tagathangelou]

Very good analysis!!! Since though you are pacing with your watch its almost sure your watch will write at the end of the marathon more than 42.2 ... probably will be around 42.5-42.6 ... so you should consider those meters as well on your final strategy

[@davidstaal3798]

Using your pacing strategy here at the Boston Marathon tomorrow (4/18/22)! Thanks for the research and calculations I would have never done on my own.

[@RunningOtaku]

Good luck…and let me know how your race goes!

[@MrBrownie77]

Did it work?

[@davidstaal3798]

@@MrBrownie77 No, but I don't think that had anything to do with @runningotaku's pacing strategy being off. The Newton Hills are no joke and I just wasn't able to keep enough pace through those 5-6 late-stage miles to get to my number. Finished at 3:08:26 which checked my secondary goal of qualifying for Boston at Boston. I did run another Boston qualifier marathon 4 months later in August that is a much easier course and I ran that at 2:55:54. Was definitely in a little bit better conditioning as I continued to train hard for the 12 weeks in-between that I wasn't recovering or tapering but I would venture to say that the Boston course is at least 5-8 min slower/harder than a flat or slight downhill course.

[@joshuaecht]

Thank you for the great writeup! I'm a 3:20 runner in Columbus and am hoping to BQ someday (3:10 standard in April 2024), by aging into it, if you will. I'm nowhere near as fast but I can still use these tips to run proper pacing.

[@RunningOtaku]

That’s great! If you can manage a couple of years of consistent training with a one or two quality workouts each week, you will get much faster than you’d dream. Go get ‘em!

[@joshuaecht]

@@RunningOtaku Thank you, I did my 3:20:01 (so close to breaking 3:20, missing it by TWO seconds!) in Columbus because I went out too fast (1:33:45/1:46 backend) but I definitely know pacing now. At least I know if I ran the 13.1 I could have gone under 1:30. If I had done the 26.2 right I would be a 3:14-3:16 runner. At Columbus we had NO pacers due to Columbus COVID protocols. I think that would have helped me immensely. My other marathon was Columbus 2019. I ran 3:24 for my first one that year, went out slow too (8:39 first mile, but a steady 1:40/1:43 split). That race was slower but better-paced! I do 1 speed session, 1 long run, and the rest of the week is EZ running. :)

[@dokutaaguriin]

Cheering you on to a sub 3. Best of Luck!

[@RunningOtaku]

Thank you Dr. Green! I really appreciate it.

[@dokutaaguriin]

I am looking forward to your wrap up/post are reflections video in this series@@RunningOtaku

[@RunningOtaku]

@@dokutaaguriin Me too. I don't know how this will end...hopefully happily!

[@jackwright3098]

Problem with this chart is you'd need to know what their target pace was before the race started. We don't know how much their choices deviated from the goal.

[@dcmmegared]

This is great! Thank you Otaku! One question: the 2.9% faster than GMP at the start and 3.1% slower at the end, you wonder, could be the result of having gone out too fast and not having enough gas at the end. Yet you use the same percentages to lay out your plan. Did you consider pulling back the initial segment pace a little, say from 2.9% faster to 2.0% faster, so the final segment can be closer to GMP? Perhaps that shift (2.9% to 2.0% -/+) would be supported (or not) had we magically been able to interview those runners at the finish to know if they met, surpassed or came up short of their goal. Then remove the data from those who came up short of their goal. I’ve run Boston twice and have cramped severely both times at around 18 miles. Chicago (flat and cool) was my PR (3:10:20) and I had a negative split. I feel like there’s something about the Boston course, steep downhill start and Newton hills at wall distance, that I don’t have figured out yet. Your video is great and helps me narrow the strategy. Don’t brake yourself during the downhill but also don’t let it trick you into faster than necessary pace.

[@FuriousFurg]

Really cool video. Interesting content.

[@dwarmour]

Id love to see how you mined this data and analyzed it.

[@carlosparra85]

There is an issue with the calculations (still great job on your explanation and break down): The splits of the people you show are based on how those people performed. It would be much best to look for people who really nailed their planned (target time). I bet a bunch of the runners in your sample size were actually targeting a better time than 3h, but they just bunked. Therefore the date is greatly based on people who did NOT RUN AN IDEAL RACE. Anyways, great job.

[@RunningOtaku]

You’re right! That would be tough data to get though. I suppose you could throw out the data of those who bonked in the last 10K or so. When I did the analysis, I didn’t notice too many who really slowed down at the end, so I believe the results are not totally off base. If you are racing Boston this year…good luck!

[@johnnagel2061]

I would be interested in finding out what happened to the runners you looked at who had the slowest starting 10k or slowest 15k Times on your chart. Did they negative split the course for the first 1/2 versus the 2nd? And how did they do compared with the rest of the runners in this group? I positively split the race where I BQ’d but ran 2 marathons Fall 2018 where I negatively split the runs (Chicago/Detroit). I enjoyed the latter 2 much more, although I was not trying as hard since I already had my Boston ticket punched. My Plan (if I can stick w/ it) is to run 15-20 secs above MP for the 1st 4-5 miles...losing a minute + to the course. But I hope to gain that back in the final 10k if I have anything left in the tank. I am a 52 yr old w/ a 3:23 pr and am shooting for a sub 3:25 in Boston. If I race to the plan and the weather stays temperate I will do 7:40/mile overall for a 3:21pr.

[@RunningOtaku]

Great idea. If I get the time, I’ll run the numbers. Heck, I might even do a regression or a scatter plot looking at the first 10K vs. the last 7.7K! From what I can tell, many ~3hr runners are loosing 15 to 30 seconds per mile on the Newton Hills. Perhaps you just run the first 10K at exactly your overall goal pace and coast down the hill?

[@kevindecoteau3186]

I "ran" Boston 2 years ago, my pace strategy was to just finish, fast,slow or limp, just finish. :)

[@RunningOtaku]

Kevin Decoteau so, did you finish?

[@christianfaesi440]

Thanks for metric figures!!

[@RunningOtaku]

You’re welcome. Are you racing soon?

[@mechadriver5088]

Just found this video as I am hoping (fingers crossed) to get into the fall 2021 race. The newton hills look rough. I am going to have to think this through, though my goal is just to have a fun race with a respectable time. Nice analysis. Did you make you goal time?

[@RunningOtaku]

Only the last of the Newton hills are tough. The rest are much easier than I thought they would be.

[@ashlyn5710]

Hi

[@RunningOtaku]

Ashlyn Elephant 👋

[@partyguinness]

It appears that runners are banking time in a big way and trying to get to 16mile with hopeful enough in the bank to freewheel home from 35k..TBH…that will probably be my strategy in 2 weeks time also…😂😂