Russia's Grand Strategy and Ukraine - Is Putin's war already a strategic failure?

After a year of hard fighting there are a rush of observers trying to make sense of the current balance of power in Ukraine. The focus in often on (often small) movements in the frontlines, casualties, or the performance of particular platforms and systems.
Those things matter, but wars are not generally fought to take individual trenches or solely to inflict casualties. They are fought for strategic objectives.
In this episode I dig into Russia's history of Empire, its modern strategic objectives, and try to assess whether or not the war in Ukraine represents a success or failure by Russia's own chosen metrics (as far as they can be determined). My suggestion is that in repeating a number of the mistakes previously made by leaders of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, it can be argued that Putin has already condemned the Russian federation to a strategic reverse.
What remains to be seen, is whether Ukraine can win a victory from Russia's defeat, or if it will be left to lose as well.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Corrections/Caveats:
This content represents an attempt to divine Russian Strategic intent in Ukraine on the basis of public statements, official media and published Western research - but it is impossible to definitively prove what Putin's goals were in invading Ukraine. Many of the presented opinions have a relatively low confidence level.
At one point I refer to this invasion as an event which has done more to galvanize Ukrainian nationalism than any of the past 100 years - that was unjustified hyperbole - the statement should instead be "of the post Soviet era" or words to that effect for reasons that I hope are obvious.
Sources & Reading:
Russian State Media highlighting the role of the Primakov Doctrine:
tass.com/russia/756973
Russian State Media on the annexation of Kherson and other regions:
tass.com/politics/1517899
Carnegie Endowment on the Doctrine:
carnegieendowment.org/files/R...
William C. Wohlforth - The Perception of Power: Russia in the Pre-1914 Balance
www.jstor.org/stable/2010224
UN Statistics on Donbas civilian casualties:
reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/...
DNR figures on losses as a result of military activity (civilian and military)
eng.ombudsman-dnr.ru/the-over...
References to visually confirmed losses are references to Oryx Data
Pew Research on opinions of Russia among selected European political party voters:
www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...
Pew Research on opinions on Russia by selected national populations
www.pewresearch.org/global/20...
New Czech president on NATO expansion:
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...
EGF Poling on opinions on the US as leading global power:
www.axios.com/2022/06/16/coun...
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Russian Grand Strategy
00:01:56 - WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT
00:03:03 - A NATURAL SUPERPOWER
00:04:04 - A Strong Hand
00:06:10 - The Same Old Errors
00:06:46 - LOSING THE EMPIRE
00:07:26 - A Power On The Rise
00:10:41 - BROKEN SICKLE
00:11:48 - History Rhymes
00:13:57 - What Held It Together?
00:15:09 - THE LOST 90s
00:15:16 - Russia's Potential
00:15:50 - Oligarchisation & Decay
00:17:04 - RUSSIAN GRAND STRAT & EURASIANISM
00:18:16 - From Dugin To Primakov
00:20:39 - The Primakov Doctrine
00:25:41 - THE ROAD TO CRIMEA
00:26:18 - It Was A Different Time
00:28:33 - The Cost Of Crimea
00:29:56 - THE LAST CHANCE
00:30:08 - The State Of Play 2022
00:32:10 - Throwing The Dice
00:32:29 - UKRAINE & STRATEGIC DISASTER
00:36:25 - Defining The Goals
00:37:36 - RUSSIAN VICTORY AS DEFEAT
00:39:05 - Halting NATO Expansion & Weakening The Alliance
00:41:04 - A Statement Of Intent
00:45:11 - How's That Influence In The Post Soviet Space
00:45:50 - "protecting The Donbas"
00:48:21 - Demilitarising Ukraine & Repressing "nationalism"
00:50:49 - A "neutral" Ukraine?
00:51:53 - Value Of The Annexed Regions
00:53:11 - Russia's Economic Future
00:54:50 - Russia's Military Potential
00:58:02 - THE RISK OF CATASTROPHE
00:58:25 - All Of That Assumed Russia Won
01:00:06 - Destabilisation & Exhaustion
01:00:29 - Russia Diminished
01:01:11 - THE FINAL ROLL OF THE DICE?
01:01:16 - Russia Has Always Bounced Back?
01:03:30 - THE WAR CONTINUES?
01:04:39 - Russia Losing Does Not Mean Ukraine Has Won
01:06:02 - The Fight For The Future Isn't Settled
01:06:52 - CONCLUSIONS
01:07:59 - CHANNEL UPDATE

[@AsiniusNaso]

Insane to think we've gone from "could Russia rival the US again" to "could Russia collapse like the Soviet Union again" in less than year.

[@First-Last_name]

In less then a year? Idk, it look at least 2 years after Afghanistan for the USSR to fall. I could see russia loosing this conflict 2024 or sooner though

[@blackmoonco]

More like less than a week!

[@thomasruckstuhl9980]

Insane to have thought a year ago that Russia could rival the US (or China).

[@whowhy9023]

Russia could never rival anyone since 1917. At their peak Russias GDP was smaller than Italys with 2.5 x the population. Over 50% from hydrocarbons, over 70% from commodities. Industry & tech is negligible. Russia has land & nukes, that is it.

[@dx-ek4vr]

If Russia faces another collapse, I wonder if it will be similar to the Soviet Collapse or if it will be something worse. Either way, if it collapses, everybody gets to worry about loose nukes again

[@xaxas94]

"In Slavic history moments of hope must immediately be followed by crushing dissapointment and despair" so true unfortunately

[@ArghastOfTheAlliance]

As a Pole, it's yet another quote by Perun that's simultaneously offensive and 100% true lmao.

[@jernejpirih6737]

As a Slovenian i must agree. Sad but true

[@ludmilascoles1195]

Ask a Slav if the glass is half full or empty, the answer could be , the glass is dirty, I am so lucky I have a glass, how much is the glass worth?,

[@chrisb9143]

Don't worry, this cycle will be over once all the Slavs unite within one country in a pacific manner, through alliances and treaties which means never

[@patchouliknowledge4455]

@Apsoy Pike What a bunch of heroes...famine is clearly a western invention and thus the enemy, da!

[@benjimlem1284]

"/.../Because if Polish troops found themselves on Red Square right now I have a feeling that'd be going straight for the Kremlin" You're god damn right.

[@toasty8599]

"But in Slavic history moments of hope must be immediately followed by crushing disappointment and despair." Damn, I wish that didn't ring quite as true as it does.

[@marymarlow3646]

A young woman interviewed in the streets of Moscow was asked how she saw the future. Her response was Nothing good. Asked why she said This is Russia.

[@paoloadam]

Keep on investigating things ❤

[@Mynameisnotjoe]

@@marymarlow3646i wouldn’t be surprised if that was real

[@kemarisite]

​@@Mynameisnotjoeone thing that absolutely is real is the line from Ivanova in Babylon-5. When asked if she is a pessimist, she replied: "I'm Russian. We understand these things."

[@hereigoagain5050]

"... withdrawing Wagner troops out of Ukraine would achieve the de-Nazification objective because it would reduce the number of fascist on the territory of Ukraine ..." Pure Gold!

[@fearlesspotato3429]

Fascist and Nazis aren't the same

[@garretttobin7451]

Russia has not been strategically defeated despite what PR specialists in the Pentagon forced General Mark Milley to state in his speech, nor it is global pariah as he stated, 87% of the world's population as well as most of its countries and governments have sanctioned Russia, and are happy to trade with Russia, it's economy is set to return to positive growth this year as predicted by the IMF despite the unprecedented sanctions designed to destroy the country and send it back to the 90s when Western business interests and corrupt Russian Oligarch's raped and pillaged he country selling many highly valuable state asset's from the USSR force peanuts at the cost of the Russian population. Russia was then led by a weak drunk American puppet president in power named Boris Yelstin that allowed the western capitalist system to completely exploited Russia to massive detriment of its people, society and infrastructure. In fact most of things Milly stated are wholly untrue when the facts are analyzed. While it is true that Russia flailed in its initial operational objectives due to underestimating the degree to which Ukraine's army had been armed and trained by NATO since 2014, it is also necessary to consider the 120 billions that have been pumped into Ukraine since the war started, this sis roughly equivalent to Ukraine's entire pre-war GDP given them over the course of a single year, that means the US and NATO doubled Ukraine's GDP to allow them to fight Russia, Ukraine might not have been an affluent country prior to the war, but considering it's size its GDP was still substantial compared to most the world's small to middle sized countries, so doubling this in one year allowed the Ukrainian to fight on without the danger of any kind of collapse taking place which would have undoubtedly happened after 2 - 3 months were it not for the financial and military aid. Then there are the supposedly successful Kharkiv and Kherson counter offensives. Yes, these were ostensibly successfully, in the case of Kharkiv Ukraine forced a woefully undermanned frontline into a hasty retreat and took back massive swath of territory. In the case of Kherson city Ukraine forced Russia into an orderly withdrawal from the city where well over 150k of its ethnic Russian and Russian speaking inhabitant's were also withdrawn, it was funny to watch the westerns propaganda mainstream media trying to create false narratives showing all the happy Kherson city residents welcoming the Ukrainian troops when in reality there were only a few thousands left in the city when they arrived given that a large chunk of the cities residents fled when war broke, and the remaining majority of its residents were evacuated by Russian army before they withdrew. Ukraine had used HMARS missile to effectively knock out most of the bridges across the Dnieper making re-supply of Russian troops in Kherson city very difficult to near impossible, this prompting the decision to enact an orderly withdrawal from the city. Following these two psychological blows Russia decide to call a partial mobilization, people need to realize they had only 190k troops in the country, and Ukraine had fully mobilized its population as soon as Russia entered the country and was fielding close to million man army, it was this numerical disadvantage that NATO military's planner and strategists successfully exploited in Kharkiv, and also later forced a withdrawal in Kherson city. What is never mentioned about these counter offensives is their cost to Ukraine armed forces, Ukraine lost thousands of men and machines in re-taking these places, most of Ukraine Soviet era arsenal had already been destroyed in the summer, but they had been gifted hundreds of tanks, IFV's and APC's by the former Soviet bloc countries, and these were being used in these vaunted counter offensive, it is reported that in re-taking the area in Kharkiv at least 6,000 Ukrainian died, as well as many many tanks, and IRV's and APC's. The same is true of Kherson city, the reality is Russian troops could have held onto Kherson city they had successfully repelled Ukrainian advances on the city multiple times inflicted horrendous losses on the incoming Ukrainian troops, the Russian forces in the city numbered 20,000 to 30,000, and were deeply dug for months, ultimately the Russian high command decide to pull them out because of the difficulty involved with keeping them re-supplied as well the possibility of Ukraine encircling them and Russia suffering very high casualties. Ukraine lost many brigades worth of men and machines/equipment in attempting to re-take Kherson city which was defined excellently by the elite Russian troops stationed there, the exact number is not known but it is estimated that most of Ukraine's 'second army' as it is called by many military analyst's was either destroyed, damaged, or otherwise attrited during the Kherson and Kharkiv counter offensives, so although they made some reasonably impressive territorial gains, especially in the case in of Kharkiv, it came at a huge cost to their military, this has even prompted many to call these offensives 'pyrrhic victories' despite how they were portrayed in western media. Contrary to western propaganda, the Russian army has not been willing to tolerate heavy casualties in order to retina a piece pf territory at any stage during this war, whenever the odds turned against them they simply retreated in order to suffer high losses, thereby retaining their combat capacity. This is not true of the Ukrainian side at all, they have been willing to sacrifice huge numbers of troops to hold every meter of ground regardless of the cost to their men, or the equipment and machines in their possession. In fact, as Col. Douglas Mac Gregor has correctly pointed out, most of the western propaganda being levelled against Russia during this conflict can be far more appropriately applied to the Ukrainian army, i.e. poor leadership, corruption, poorly trained, morale problems, execution of deserters, sacrificing men as cannon fodder to hold indefensible ground, etc. It is even accurate to state that when western media slander's the Russian armed forces, just apply what they are saying to Ukrainian armed forces and you are likely much closer to actual truth.

[@aaronleverton4221]

@@fearlesspotato3429 Wanna tell us how the Nazis were actually socialist because of their name?

[@fearlesspotato3429]

@@aaronleverton4221 their name? No. They were socialist because they nationalized all industries and putt it in control of the German labor front (a nation wide workers union) had progressive taxation, abolishes private property, subsidized food and health, had price controls, forced company leaders to "donate" large amounts of their wealth to the labor front, set salaries and had the decision on hires. But hey I guess Nazis aren't socialist because... Ehhh... 'Causeeeee..... Eeeehhhhh... Eeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhhh.

[@0816M3RC]

@@fearlesspotato3429 Yes they are.

[@grognard23]

I had to chuckle at the "Congratulations America, you are the least worst option." Thank you for that. I have many complaints about American foreign policy but do agree with your sentiment.

[@guydreamr]

This American agrees, on both points 🤣🤣

[@scratchy996]

America's policy was always : "I'm the top dog, bow to me !" Now China becomes the top dog , and their soft power projection works a lot better. Unless the US rethinks its diplomatic efforts, the West is screwed.

[@chuckbuck5002]

As an American I couldn’t agree more 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸

[@jpnewman1688]

@@guydreamr of course for well-trained American 🐑🐑, they 💕💕 the trickle down crap from their masters.. 💯💯😂😂

[@chickenmonger123]

That’s very American. Keeps happening. I don’t know if it gets better than that. For anyone.

[@xYarbx]

As someone who was born as 3rd generation after Soviet-Finnish winterwar into Finnish family. Ukrainians only having 1 generation of trauma is seriously short selling it. It's still till this day that you can see the scars that the war left on the people, nature & countries relations. I never got to meet 1 of my grandparents because he was lost to a grenade. My dad did not have father as he was born after the death of his father, he was raised by the older siblings while their mom worked. Depriving my aunt and uncle of normal childhood, while at the same time struggling with the lose of their father at the age of 8 & 10 and from the stories I've heard told we could be considered lucky on the scale of effected. These and many much more horrific things in light of places like Bucha leave scars to victim and their families that they will take to their graves and cultural ones that will last even centuries.

[@iche9373]

And that’s why it’s time that Finnland gets its NATO membership.

[@JM-mh1pp]

in fifty years Ukrainian walls will have their own walls and their tanks will shoot tiny tanks. After such a trauma it takes a long time for a nation to take a chill pill.

[@omppusolttu5799]

Huh, as a 4th gen Finn I can personally say it's really not been a factor in my life. All of my family who fought in the winter war either died there or by old age before I was even a teenager and I interact rarely enough with my grandparents who were born after it, that I don't really see how it's affected them.

[@xYarbx]

@@omppusolttu5799 well there is about 20 years between our experience also my family home is now part of Russia.

[@omppusolttu5799]

@@xYarbx Yep, I wanted to compare the difference that 20 years or so makes and admittedly the second point does not apply to me.

[@c.j.1089]

"If you ever need someone to get off the sideline and hit someone with a chair - it's Uncle Sam." This line is solid gold.

[@Peter-xz5dl]

I would agree with this line, except I still find the idea the the US will actually fight itself to defend others questionable in the current times. I feel they still suffer war fatigue from the middle east. But wont stop them from doing what they're doing now: mass delivery of arms.

[@Ben.....]

​@@Peter-xz5dl US has troops forward deployed in NATO countries. US would not tolerate American casualties

[@Peter-xz5dl]

@@Ben..... For now they are there. I could see the US pull back.

[@blackknight8560]

❤😂🎉😢😢😢😮😮😮😅😅😊😊😊😊😊😊😊

[@rogirek3362]

@@Peter-xz5dl The moment the US pulls back from a NATO ally because of _nearby_ Russian aggression, NATO no longer exists. Rather, in that moment, everyone suddenly learns that it never existed at all. This proposal is laughable. Look up Red February if you want to know what happens when Russian forces try to intimidate stationed US forces into pulling back.

[@J_Stronsky]

"...the idea of demilitarising your opponent by face-tanking their ammunition reserves with your infantry and armoured vehicles, isn't exactly a 4D chess move." - Perun, 2023 Pure poetry mate.

[@jpnewman1688]

The Ukraine WAR ain't about Ukraine.. 💯💯😂😂

[@nickcharles1284]

It may be poetry, but it doesn't reflect reality. Russia is destroying assets with artillery. Infantry is for mop up. And Ukraine has no reserves left. Everything they have left is in play. This is why they are begging the west for more of everything. And the West doesn't have it. Game over.

[@markonw6661]

“facetanking” The only relevant pub test verdict on Russia’s strategy. Perun satisfies my brain in ways I never thought an analyst could.

[@rafis117]

A year ago idea that we’d hear “face tanking”, never mind in such a serious and sophisticated context, but just outside a gaming context … would have sounded very silly.

[@krzysztofsaa2997]

I lauged as well....

[@PeterA650]

"Do you want to build an oil refinery in occupied territory when every third Ukrainian knows how to drop a grenade from a drone?". I hope history preserves these gems.

[@alastairchurch4038]

Perhaps we should be compiling a book of Perun’s little gems and once this horror show is finally over (and presumably his supply of ammunition for said witticisms has diminished) we could flog it to raise funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine?

[@fibber2u]

Valid though that is it applies both ways. Do you want to build an Ukrainian refinery when a devastating war could recommence? Either way a proper peace is needed for reconstruction.

[@rodwallace6237]

Or a tank maintenance facility because Russians use drones too. If the Abrams ever shows up they will probably spend most of the time in Poland being repaired.

[@deztag3964]

@@rodwallace6237 Abrams being repaired in Poland would *actually* be operational parity with Russian tanks being repaired out of Ukraine in Russia. Given Britain just promised long ranged weapon on Friday, that ongoing parity is not guaranteed. Ukraine hitting a plant in Kursk is an infrastructure target of the nation it is at war with. Russia hitting an Abrams repair facility in Poland is Article 5 😼

[@fibber2u]

@@rodwallace6237 Granade dropping drones can't kill main battle tanks🤫Also what will easily kill a little T72 often can't kill a big Abrams.🤫 But don't tell the Russian Fan Boys it will only upset them, let them find out for themselves. 🤫Saddly they never notice what happend when Abrams came up against T72s. 🤔 Heck come to think of it the Bradly IFV outfought the Russian made tanks in both those wars also.😉

[@austrb]

This is a super cool analysis!! The only correction is that Zelenskiy's government was not hated that much before the war as you mentioned. Surely many people disliked him, but in general the government was "normal" or "fine" for most Ukrainians and even had significant chances for winning next parliamentary and presidential elections (especially considering that there were no real rivals).

[@kemarisite]

My understanding (from the US) is that Zelensky was elected as the anti-corruption candidate and this platform was fairly popular in general, even if specific corrupt people and their family and friends would resent the crackdown.

[@francois487]

"NATO expansion is a threat to Russian influence, not its survival." This has to be the quote of the century.

[@sempressfi]

💯 agree

[@piushalg8175]

But Nato expansion could be a threat to the current russian regime in the long run.

[@ttcc5273]

A good peace deal will include all of Zelenskyy’s multi-point peace plan, especially full punishment of the terrorists and criminals in the kremlin. A _great_ peace plan will include a roadmap for some organization to oversee the demilitarization and decolonization of the independent states of the former russian federation. I nominate Zelenskyy to preside over the pacification and integration of all the Eastern Slavs, he is the true leader of the rus.

[@francois487]

@@piushalg8175 Agreed, but I feel like this was a situation brought on by the Putin regime. Relations with the West were fixable until the decision to annex Crimea in 2014.

[@Angry-Lynx]

First of all there is no such thing as nato expansion that term alone is created by soviet propaganda

[@CZEFrank]

Since you brought up the new Czech president, I think it'd also be fitting to point out his predecessor Miloš Zeman. Zeman has been in office for 10 years, has always held a staunchly pro-Russian position and was arguably the face of pro-Russian politics. Well since the invasion he's done a complete 180 on those views, called for harsh sanctions on Russia, called Putin a madman and awarded Zelenskyy the Order of the White Lion, the highest order in this country. Just a good example of how much the invasion has eroded Russia's support.

[@cabletelcontar5440]

Ouch

[@Cancun771]

On the other hand, a loooong list of German leftists, feminists and "intellectuals" have just published another open letter to chancelor Scholz, opining that *Putin deserves a large chunk of Ukraine for his troubles* and we, the West, should stop the support for Ukraine already in order to *give peace a chance.* They call it "manifesto for peace" and claim, among a boatload of other complete nonsense, that Ukraine has no chance anyway _since Russia has nukes(!)_ and painting Selenksiy as the aggressor because he "wants to vanquish Russia"(!) And like the Nazis and plenty other shifty demagogues all throughout history, they of course claim to "speak for the silent majority". How anybody can rise to their positions in Germany of all countries while being this completely clueless about history is beyond me. Signed by some people who made clear a long time ago they are utter nut jobs, such as Oskar Lafontaine, Alice Schwarzer, Peter Gauweiler and Putin's main German squeeze Sahra Wagenknecht, but also by people I used to take very seriously, namely psychologist Rainer Mausfeld and satirist-turned-politician Martin Sonneborn. _O si tacuisses._

[@Curling12341]

Zeman is a politician with survival instincts. By the way, does the new one give off a Chris Pine/Santa Clause vibe?

[@itsblitz4437]

​@@Curling12341 really?

[@itsblitz4437]

I guess war from neighbors isn't popular.

[@Quarezz]

Listening through slide at 48:27 - 50:50 got me teared up from anger. That whole thesis is very deep and strikes right through the heart. I witnessed Crimea's annexation in the first row (I'm from Simferopol) and moved to Kyiv in 2016. During that period of my life, I tried to contemplate what happened and why. I hated that some assholes in Moscow decided that they can take away my home, tell me what language to speak, what to criticize, and how to live. But that perception died on 24 Feb 2022. Starting from that date - the only thing that lives is anger, fury, and absolute 0 tolerance for any kind of russian symbols or ideas. This is the cemented view of Ukrainian people for decades to come and there is absolutely nothing that can be done about it. Your friends, your family, your classmates, your neighbors, and your colleagues. Absolutely everyone has at least someone who died or got hurt in this war. It's hard to describe the feeling with words, so I'll just say that it's disrespect mixed with stone-cold anger. I disrespect every miserable human being that took arms and went to kill Ukrainians in their homes. And I wish that every single one of them dies or gets out so I can help rebuild my home after this war is finished.

[@harryrosenthal4818]

Res ipsa loquitur

[@occamraiser]

And you are 100% right.

[@arighteousname5882]

As you should. Your anger is justified. Russia open their own pandoras box and it's repercussions will last for a long time. No matter how Russia fairs in this conflict win, lise, or draw, Ukrainians will never forget and forgive and never let it go.

[@joansparky4439]

_"I hated that some assholes in Moscow decided that they can take away my home, tell me what language to speak, what to criticize, and how to live."_ Most people can relate to that bit on a gut-level, just not put their finger on it or exactly tell you what it is in how their society works that makes THEIR lives miserable and lets some assholes in some business tower / parliament building have a life in luxury. It's the very same thing, just on a much smaller and much less painful scale. _"I tried to contemplate what happened and why."_ The why is relatively simple.. You Ukrainians wanted to have more influence over your own life which is the absolute opposite of what the Oligarchs in Moscow want, esp when they want to keep ruling over Russia and the Russians. Your moves to make your lives better is what makes it harder for Putin to stay in power in Russia and after all the political/diplomatic/etc. avenues had been traveled he took the only option left on the table - trying to destroy Ukraine, trying to destroy you, because you represent their greatest fear - a people wanting and creating a better live for themselves and thus being an example for Russians to do the same. I'm sorry that you have to go through this, but apparently there is no other way and the only thing that could have prevented this would have been if the Russians themselves would have followed your example and revolted against the oligarchs that rule over them.

[@jpnewman1688]

The Ukrainians are just the latest cheap pawns in the game of power and wealth controlled by Western BANKERS and corporations..💯💯

[@sirko1994]

Absolute like from Ukraine! This is extremely important for our morale here. We are keep fighting, but it's important to know that the Free World is with us and we will win together! Thank you ❤️

[@McNubbys]

Stay as safe as you can, Slava Ukrayini!🇺🇦🇺🇸

[@sirko1994]

@@McNubbys Героям Слава!🇺🇦

[@fex144]

From Denmark with a closed fist salute: Slava Ukraini

[@anabaird3835]

💙💜🤎💜💙 USA😘

[@peternewman7940]

Our hearts go out to you guys. Your people are so brave!

[@fratercontenduntocculta8161]

In memory of this first year of senseless death, my thoughts and prayers go out to the brave and resourceful people of Ukraine. You will win!

[@AncientIrishCelt]

What are the range and lethality of your "thoughts and prayers"?

[@beeftec5862]

@@AncientIrishCelt the range and lethality are up to the Ukrainian people, and them alone . If they wanted to forgo sovereignty for peace, they would have let Russia take over. They didnt, any requests for military help show the country is being oppressed

[@hlim431]

@@beeftec5862 Ukraine is not even a functioning country anymore... just a basket case soon to be land-locked

[@rogirek3362]

@@AncientIrishCelt The range and lethality of the wrapping paper isn't important. It's the tax dollars inside that's doing the killing.

[@nacho8070]

​@@AncientIrishCelt depends on the calibre of the thoughts and the platform from which the prayers are launched

[@keizervanenerc5180]

"Argueably simply withdrawing Wagner groups out of Ukraine would achieve the goal of de-nazification because it would reduce the number of fascists on the territory of Ukraine." True, and yet hilarious at the same time! One of my favorite quotes of your videos so far!

[@zomfgroflmao1337]

This and the face tanking quotes were the best Perun produced so far.

[@boobah5643]

Other than the detail that the Nazis are socialists focused on ethnicity and Fascists were Marxists who replaced 'class' with 'nationality.' It's not clear to me that the Wagner Group is any sort of socialist, much less what kind of socialists they might be.

[@peterwebb8732]

A senior Wagner Officer was on television not long ago… he has the SS “lightning bolt” runes tattooed on his neck where the Nazis had their collar-patches.

[@riebenzahl-524]

​@@peterwebb8732 That is Dimitri Utkin, actual founder of the Wagner group. Prigoschin is financing it and has all the important contacts to the higher echelons, including Putin, who knows also Utkin. Utkin does not only have his SS tattoos, but als an eagle with swastica on his chest. Utkin is former soldier an participated in the actions in 2014 in Donbas.

[@CMY187]

@@riebenzahl-524 To qualify as a Nazi, it is not enough to be evil and racist. You also have to be incredibly stupid. Nazis do not understand history or economics. If they did, they wouldn’t be Nazis. In my opinion, Nazi Germany lost World War Two before it even started (Sep 1939).

[@RebekaTarn]

As an Estonian and Eastern European, I must say that it is bittersweet hearing someone from a country so far away retelling the (hi)story that we have learned both in schools and at home. It still amazes me how westerners have in many ways fallen victim to Russian propaganda. Only now they are beginning to see what Russia has been like for centuries: invading neighbors, importing Russians, promoting Russian language and culture by force, genocide and oppression. A few generations later and those oppressed people have been brainwashed into thinking they are also Russians and the amoeba that is the russian state keeps on growing. At the same time, their governance is horrible and they keep failing and breaking down. But then they come back claiming that your home country is somehow their “historical land”. There is a reason why Poland and the Baltics are supporting Ukraine so feverishly. It is because we know exactly what Russia is and how it operates. We have known for centuries.

[@clarkjanes3094]

We're falling asleep here in the US. Autocrats and fascism are on the rise here too and too few see the danger. Our rich elite are no longer satisfied in skimming wealth they now want absolute power.

[@michaelhurlbut4830]

And probably why Sweden and Finland want to join NATO.

[@tudosiealexandru6831]

I'm a Romanian leftist. It honestly came as a shock to me to see all these supposedly leftist parties from western Europe condemn the sanctions and make up excuses for Russia. All of us in Eastern Europe are well-informed on the centuries of Russian imperialism. The mass rapes that happen whenever they "liberate" a country, the mass deportations to Siberia and Central Asia, the forced russification, but the western leftists fetishize the Soviet aesthetic that they simply don't care, or call it all a lie and propaganda, despite never having set foot in either Russia or Eastern Europe. It made me realize that these supposed "anti-imperialist" people don't care about imperialism at all, they only care about American imperialism. I hate American imperialism too. But America's aid to Ukraine has been the first time since WW2 in which they are unequivoically "the good guys", and most western leftists are so stuck in their "America bad, Soviet good" mentality that they are unable to grasp it, and it can be seen in their attitudes towards Eastern Europe as a whole. They think that we easterners are children who were manipulated into joining NATO by the Americans, when it was centuries of Russian imperialism that made us do that. They don't realize that telling a eastern European or central Asian that "Russia is good, actually" is the same as telling a South American or Middle Easterner that "the US is good, actually"

[@mikeriley3556]

So you genuinely believe NATO didn’t provoke Russia into this invasion? And ukraine and its allies are totally innocent? It’s people like you that give the western weapon manufacturers free reign to wreck havoc on the world, from Iraq to Afghanistan to Vietnam, it’s all in the name of imperialism and money, same shit different toilet

[@user-nx4qn8ip6k]

Great, I can't think what I am a Russian, because some Estonian dude said what really I am not.

[@minervajones1232]

As an Aussie I'm delighted that a fellow countryman provides one of, if not the best, analyses of the current war in Europe and it's attendant consequences. Bravo!

[@Factory_Edge]

I also listen to Douglas Macgregor who is 180° out from Perun. MacGregor claims to have inside info from US military officials vs. Perun's open source info.......but Perun does have a smart sounding accent. I believe Perun and fear that MacGregor is right.

[@pretty7545]

@@Factory_Edge Who's Douglas MacGregor? "A senior adviser at the Pentagon with a history of disparaging refugees and immigrants, spreading conspiracies, and other controversial rhetoric was nominated by President Donald Trump on Tuesday for a spot on West Point’s advisory board." Oh yeah sounds like a great source. Right up there with Pierre Sprey, designer of the F-35. Even if he is wrong, the average of two sides is always the truth. /s

[@viktoriyaserebryakov2755]

When this war ends, people will still argue about the outcome. We still believe much of the WW2 propaganda.

[@Werrf1]

@@Factory_Edge As far as I can tell, Macgregor consistently makes predictions that fail to be born out, while Perun's predictions have been pretty bang on. Try Ben Hodges instead.

[@zahimiibrahim3602]

Agreed, I see Perun as an highly intelligent commentator. From the subject of computor gaming (which I have no interest in) to doing this kind of detailed analysis is an enormous shift.

[@dunnowy123]

It's crazy to think that Russia achieved so many of its geopolitical objectives BEFORE the war. They were widely considered a great power and treated as such. They drove wedges in Europe. They expanded their influence. Kept Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova out of NATO. Competed with the US, allied with China, but maintained its own independent foreign policy. And then. The war.

[@kazekamiha]

Yeeeeep... I said it at the start if this war; Putin's best move was to do *nothing.*

[@kkpenney444]

Competed with the US in what, exactly?

[@quoccuongtran724]

@@kkpenney444 right-wing fanatic influences; we all well know its not gonna be economic for sure while militarily comparing russia against the USA its like apple vs orange, russia was still generally considered the weaker one (without nukes) in conventional wars (as it is just 50% of the soviet union)

[@AbcDino843]

And it would have stayed that way had there not been a consistent push of Ukraine towards NATO. Saying that the best option was to do nothing is the level of superficial understanding, equal to saying that Hitler should not have attacked the Soviet Union in 1941. The Soviet Union was going to attack anyway, and it was a forced move by the Germans, in hope to at least have a fighting chance by starting the conflict on their own terms. Putin had to do what he had to do and pray that he's able to hold it together. It is clear by now that as much as he miscalculated the amount of Western support for Ukraine after the invasion, the West has miscalculated Russia's resolve to see it through even more. Looking at the outcome of the latest counteroffensive and the NATO summit in Latvia, the things are not looking good for Ukraine, and they're starting to look much brighter for Russia.

[@tomsaltner3011]

I’m afraid that you really believe what you are typing and I’m sorry for you, buddy…

[@pondacres]

This was a great assessment. I'm from Soviet era Ukraine, with family still there, native Russian speaker. Honestly before this war I had nothing against Russia, quite the opposite. I was one of those who thought the initial predictions of an invasion were western media hysterics. My grandfathers/granduncles fought in the red army in the great war, it was a point of pride for my family. So celebrating banderites was obviously not something we did. And, when Putin took Crimea along with the Donbas rebellion he was feeding, I blamed Ukrainian nationalists for instigating this by overthrowing Yanukovych. BUT, when the invasion did start, and reports came back about them invading Russian orks and what they were doing, along with the zombified Russian civilians ("I'm not very political")...I must admit all of this has really rocked my world, my entire identity, definitely my allegiance. I'm hardly alone in this. My family in Ukraine is now cheering on the azov regiment, I mean wow! This vid touched on this briefly, but I think it's a big point how Putin's plan to bring the Russian world to Russian-Speaking Ukrainians had a polar opposite effect. He may be wrecking Ukraine, but he's also building a whole new Ukraine, a unified one.

[@Edax_Royeaux]

Putin asks often, "What's best for Putin?", he does not ask often, "What's best for the Russians?". You can see this through the constant neglect to the standard of living for the average person.

[@DancerVeiled]

The strongest and most beautiful friendships are forged when people are forced to work together to survive.

[@thekinginyellow1744]

"Cheering the Azov Regiment" I guess that's a classic example of "The enemy of my enemy is my friend".

[@Concord003]

Thank you for sharing this. I felt the same in 2014. I am a native Russian speaker living in Lviv part of Ukraine. And for years I've been proud of my Russian heritage. In 2014, after Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, I felt betrayed, like my own people struck me in the back. Before 2014 I was always bewildered to hear cruel anti-russian jokes from locals... But now, after 2022, I understand that they came from generations of Soviet and Russian oppression of Ukrainians.

[@mr.nemesis6442]

I honestly thought the same when the media was talking about a Russian invasion. I thought that surely, they’re not stupid enough to invade because the potential risks are not worth the potential benefits for them. Turns out that I was wrong and stupidity is the cause of the most significant event in the 21st century so far.

[@daniell1483]

From the US, the line at 45:09 killed me. "Congratulations Americans, you are the least worst option." I was IMMEDIATELY reminded of the famous quote by Churchill: "Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…" So hey, there is a lot to be said for being the least worst option! On a more serous note, while the war in Ukraine has been horrible, I am genuinely glad that it has helped bring the West and NATO back together. We can bicker with one another, but ultimately, I think Europe and America has far more in common than we have in difference. Rule of law, personal freedoms, our shared cultural heritage, we are a family of nations.

[@Mahrac126]

I actually went to a different Churchill quote."You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else." Thankfully in this scenario the government seem to have skipped most of the everything else and started sending aid right away. Even if the heavier stuff, tanks ect. was slower.

[@daniell1483]

@@Mahrac126 I think it is probably just part of democracy to be frustrated with your own government, as a nation can never be as nimble and responsive as an individual could be. In a way, a government is a necessary evil. At least until we get some kind of nation-wide neural link or something. Though as you bring up tanks and equipment shipments to Ukraine, I honestly think your quote is more appropriate for Germany this last year. Maybe that is just Shultz's government but man, it seems like Germany really didn't know what the hell it wanted to do with itself.

[@richarddietzen3137]

@@Mahrac126There was that “perfect phone call”.

[@Typexviiib]

@@richarddietzen3137 the one where Germany was called out for not helping ukraine enough and not enforcing eu sanctions on russia?

[@Marinealver]

Which means we are living in the least worst era, so things can ALWAYS get worse.

[@owensvil6606]

This is by far the best analysis of the war/situation I have found

[@nandesu]

Buried a dear family friend today. He was lost in Bakhmut. May world relations with Russia will never again be "business as usual" in our life times. Slava Ukraine!

[@NickanM]

....😢 ❤

[@user-qq5cx5ry6f]

Just to give you an idea of military development at the cost of civil goods production in USSR: 1957 - launched first sateline to space 1969 - started producing toilet paper And that is not a joke

[@DogeickBateman]

The saddest part is that the satellites didn't save their country

[@laststand6420]

I still laughed

[@BoraHorzaGobuchul]

Same thing today. Went to a shop, now 70% of the shelf space previously allocated for butter holds margarine (and what butter is left is twice as expensive as year ago). Indeed, cannons vs butter.

[@lukeneill1568]

@@BoraHorzaGobuchul it’s cheaper to produce. Butter was expensive much more expensive then than what it is now.

[@vgcatzero]

Hey, we've had newspapers for that! You need to clump the paper and rough it up a bit, but I guess wiping your ass with propoganda feels about right =D How do I know? My gramma still used newspaper instead of toilet paper in 90s when I was a kid.

[@Malidictus]

I'm reminded of the old proverb "It's better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt." Russia could have exercised a tremendous amount of influence under the threat of invasion. Now that Russia has invaded and removed all doubt, what leverage do they even have left?

[@Edax_Royeaux]

They still have that propaganda that has convinced a significant portion of the Russian public into accepting a nuclear holocaust and they've spent a fortune refurbishing their nuclear shelters.

[@Princip666]

Do they need any leverage? Why would they?

[@Malidictus]

@@Princip666 You can get politicians to concede under threat of invasion. Those same politicians are lot less likely to concede once you actually invade - especially when you start losing.

[@hamboharambe9982]

Nukes, they have nukes

[@boobah5643]

@@hamboharambe9982 Nukes that few believe they will actually use while the armies are still in the Ukraine.

[@TheSteelbarracuda]

This is outstanding content, hard to believe it is available for free. All relevants matters touched on and brilliantly sintesized with the right amount of historical context. 10/10

[@xanmontes8715]

My mother was 16 when Chernobyl popped. She had never, until a few days ago when I explained it to her, known the details behind Reactor 4 cosplaying as my anxiety and stress when my belt loop gets caught in the door handle after a bad day. She was raised fearing the Soviet Union. When a very visionary friend told her that she was sure the Iron Curtain would fall she thought it was ridiculous. Then the USSR collapsed and the Cold War (as she knew it) was over. Imaginr, if you will, the shadow of a monster. On the shadow you can see that the monster is massive, has great fangs that could chop you to bits, large claws, etc. You see the shadow invade a country. You fear for what this means. Are the Russians playing conqueror? Will it stop at Ukraine? Then the lights come on and the shadow is actually an old beast. It's fangs are yellowing and fragile. It's claws are blunt from years of wear. It's not even as big as it seemed to be. Was my mother foolish? Not at all. She feared a very real monster that once ruled over her life with terrifying certainty. I'm just glad she feels safer now.

[@thryce82]

Another thing that should be emphasised is that the only reason many of these areas are "naturally" part of Russia is because the Russians forcefully depopulated those areas and sent in their own people. I personally dont think that counts and Im assuming a lot of Polish, Ukranians, Estonians, Latvians and on and on and on , would agree.

[@Adv-vr1uh]

This! I cannot agree more. And yes, I am a Ukrainian.

[@kyle-ld2gh]

Just look at The Holodomor. Thst is only a fraction of the abuse Ukraine has suffered under Russian occupation. And Russian culture was literally stolen from The Kieven-Rus Empire.

[@dariuszrutkowski420]

A lot of cities were built by Poles that got forcefully migrated to Siberia and built them from ground up. In winter, without shelter with little food.

[@christianweibrecht6555]

Stalin era enthic replacement programs where effective

[@thevoxdeus]

To this day, there are ethnic Russian people living in the home built by my Latvian great uncle, who was sent to Siberia by the Soviets for the crime of owning a successful business, and who never returned. Hundreds of thousands of Latvians were "liquidated" in this way in 1939 and 1940, and at least an equal number of Russians were brought to replace them. It's a direct consequence of these types of actions in the Baltics and Ukraine that resistance to Russian domination became associated with Nazism, and why there still exist so many people in these places with nostalgic views of the Nazis. "The enemy of my enemy is my friend," etc.

[@bixbysnyder-00]

"361 days into my 3 day war, I am still master strategist" -Vladimir Putin

[@extremumadventura]

Hah

[@extremumadventura]

Utter blindness and deafness to one's own particular failings. The empty eastern promises

[@pushslice]

OK, I laughed!

[@RJT80]

Plenty of very smart people have commented over history that it is foolish to count your eggs before they hatch. Russia isn't done. In fact several people on the ground working with the UA have said in recent interviews that Ukraine is slowly losing and time is very much not on their side. Making this video is just bizarre considering the war is far from over and Russia hasn't gone to tactical nukes that play such a large role in their doctrine in a war this size and this consequential. Even if this war does end without a disaster scenario unfolding nobody knows what other significant fallout there will be. Unfortunately I think Perun now considers himself the smartest guy in the room.

[@deanwoodward8026]

As published by the Ministry of Truth. Next up the Ministry of Plenty, followed by closing remarks from the Ministry of Peace.

[@paulhaynes8045]

You should never have worried about making this video - it's one of your best and most interesting. There's so much in it and so much to think about, that I have now watched it three times - and will probably watch it again! Your videos, and especially this one should be far more widely watched. Understanding the reasons for, and consequences of, wars is probably one of the most important things any society needs to do. Otherwise, how are we ever going to move on from 'solving' problems with violence and destruction? These videos should be part of the curriculum of all schools and colleges, and, especially, all military, history and political courses.

[@stuarthenderson6582]

I keep repeating, but your channel contains some of the best content on KZbin. I try to constrain myself, but when one like this comes out, I just can't help it. I've sent a link to three friends who have been riding the fence, and been somewhat apathetic about the Ukraine invasion. Two have contacted me that after viewing this video they have changed their minds, both making "long overdue" (in their words), contributions to humanitarian relief efforts. So I can accurately say that not only does your content inform those who already wanted to be abreast, but also that your content has changed minds. That is no small feat! Excellent work! Then you mention next week's more "lighthearted" video topic, that I can't wait to learn from. I have been thinking quite a bit about what even a small country with a determined, well-armed, well-trained military can do to (especially with good ties with loyal neighbor states) to forestall the ambitions of even large and brutish countries. Sure, there's the polar bear, the great white, and other fearsome, immense creatures, but then there are those like the wolverine that makes even top predators pause, and sometimes even make a wide berth.

[@aleonard8272]

"If you wanna make friends with your neighbors, don't knock down the fence and say you're annexing their back yard" - Perun's ability to synthesize complex issues into easily digestible one-liners is epic.

[@KenMathis1]

"If you're ever in trouble and you need someone to come off the sideline and hit him with the chair, it's Uncle Sam" _(I chortled)_

[@engliterra355]

well we don't want to make friends with Ukraine. I mean how do you make friends with somebody who yells everyday how he wants to kill you?

[@aleonard8272]

@@engliterra355 source for that bs?

[@engliterra355]

@@aleonard8272 OMG the Internet is full of videos with torch rallies where they scream -death to every Russian. Leading Ukranian politicians talking about that. All long before 2014. Where have you been all that time? It used to be in your western media as well some time ago, info about nationalists rallies and Azov and so on.

[@Eatmydbzballs]

@aleonard 82 What BS? It appears to have disappeared.

[@wallacechow3276]

Perun has produced some of the best and most thorough analysis and commentary I have seen anywhere, whether on KZbin or on any other media. Hats off to your talent and time commitment. I hope you will continue this endeavour after this war finishes.

[@jpnewman1688]

Who's the puppets master?? 😂😂

[@Lungomono]

Indeed. As he won't advertise for it himself, I will. If you can and want to support him and his work, you can also join his patreon. Personally I do, as I think he deserves it. I am looking forward to each Sunday for his presentations.

[@lordofbats3601]

Yeah he is good

[@jpnewman1688]

@@Lungomono don't forget to 🙏🙏 to the almighty Federal Reserve GODS and the almighty Federal Reserve 💵💵.. 💯💯😂😂

[@wgerling8052]

Peruns level of presentation makes me wonder if these could be at the military war college level graduate level, if he were in the military. Sounds like he has had prior higher level military training and / or experience, that he is applying and doing additional research for these presentations.

[@fideferal]

Perun it blows my mind that you are able to put out so much content every week. I discovered your channel from these Ukraine analyses and I look forward to every one of them. I love these kind of very contextualised deep dives you do, please keep using your powers for good!

[@errorcrj110]

"Don't get high off your own supply" A lesson that Putin should have learnt regarding the Russian information war.

[@alainbelanger9852]

Just a brief aside, I was working in Ukraine from 2017 to 2021. I was there during the first two years of Zelenski’s presidency, including during his election. I wouldn’t say that he or his government were “extremely unpopular” during that time. Enthusiasm had faded over those two years, but most Ukrainians are by nature fairly cynical when it comes to their government’s actions. Despite that perennial cynicism, I wouldn’t say that his government was very unpopular, it was quite possibly more popular than most of the previous governments. Those are my impressions anyways.

[@fakeplaystore7991]

I remember being mentioned somewhere that his approval rate was around 25% right before the war started. If those are true figures, then Putin blundered Russia into a completely avoidable situation which could have been solved with dirty politics - but of course that assume his goals weren't "annex everything east of the Dnipro" from the beginning.

[@Concord003]

You are correct in general. I would still add that it was unclear Zelenskyy would win reelection...

[@neolexiousneolexian6079]

@@Concord003 I looked up his polls the other day. Iirc he was a bit meh, basically tied with every other serious contender. Obviously that's shot right up since then, and presumably he'll be remembered as an (inter)national hero for centuries.

[@JosephKano]

So it's on a spectrum 🐱. Honestly I think Putin thought Zelensky would run. The moment he didn't, he stayed, and made it obvious that he was going to risk being killed if Kyiv was overrun, was the moment Zelensky broke Putins whole plan.

[@gunterthekaiser6190]

Yeah from what I understood based on Ukrainians friends, it's more of a distrust in the entire governmental structure rather than the current president.

[@alexheady7887]

“When you need someone to come off the sideline and hit ‘em’ with the chair, it’s Uncle Sam.” 😂 As an American I completely support doing everything we can to help Ukraine and I get upset when people don’t care. My only request would be for us to build better relationships with the countries in central and South America. China has a huge foothold down there.

[@MostlyPennyCat]

I'd say you have a bit of responsibility to invest in South America, sure. Both for prior damage done and also _why the hell would you not?!?!_ Never understood that about the US. Imagine if you'd built an AU equivalent to the EU. But it would require a fundamental shift in American thinking, away from the 'me first' ideals. Imagine if you just redirected half your military budget into foreign investment in South America. Sadly I think they're more likely to form a SATO to counter you.

[@PeterMuskrat6968]

Maybe it’s time to finally change NATO. Rebrand it. GTO? Something that expands the scope infinitely outward. Stretching across multiple continents and across different oceans. Japan and SK, Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines. Hell, maybe some South American countries and African countries could join. Need to make baby steps to get there, but imagine the banner of Democratic nations and Collective Defense spread out across the globe. African countries not needing to worry about getting invaded by their neighbors, with GTO membership also comes economic benefits, technological benefits and the reform of the Farming practices so that they can produce food at a rate that is more than they consume. But hey, who am I to come up with plans.

[@fuzzlemacfuzz]

given America's history with the countries to the South (Coups, Assassinations, slavery to name a few) America would need to do some serious bridge building for them to even begin to trust the US.

[@MrInuhanyou123]

It's impossible for us to get good resolution for lower American continent when we have millions of people trying to actually apply for asylum or basic immigration physically blocked at the checkpoints down there. Historically we have helped destroy central and south America for our own ends and now far right nationalists in America get mad that people come here to escape the instability of what was created. It's a joke. The first thing we need to fix is understanding that.

[@velvetmagnetta3074]

@Mostly Penny Cat - Do you know what 1/2 of our annual military budget is? We already do invest quite a bit into our Central and South American neighbors. Of course, it could always be more, our policies (immigration, trade, financial, investment, and social) could always be better, but...we don't even invest $500 billion into anything for ourselves! 🤯

[@przemeks4984]

This is the most brilliant analysis on the Ukraine war I've ever seen. I'm in awe. Thank you!

[@KrnelPanc]

- USA has more influence in the world - NATO has expanded further toward Russia - NATO is more united than ever - NATO nations investing more in defense spending - Russia's influence in the world is down - Russian economy went from projected growth to predicted stagnation - Ukrainian sense of identity strengthened - Ukraine to join EU - Ukraine to join NATO

[@fabienherry6690]

-A lot of monopole USA had over international economy are broken trade in other money are now taking place insurrance shiping company aren't only based in london -NATO has SPOKEN of expanding still waiting on that actually -NATO is indeed more united than ever ... In the competition of sending thing without having to send important stuff like how the US played germany to give leopard without having to send abrams -NATO is indeed spending more in defense -Russia influence in the world has taken a hit that is true especially in the west but it's position of economic support to china and india even if not dominating is strengthned -Russia did take an economic hit but europe just sunk they have 2% GDP to deficit when having 3% in europe is a miracle and force the most brutal austerity that 70% of the population refuse -Ukraine sense of indentity is indeed strengthened now the question is will it survive the economic wave that corrupt organisation such as blackrock and the loss of population -Ukraine to join EU i mean if he want France place i'm all for it. Europe is on the verge of political collapse with the internal strife confidence in the monetary system is at it's lowest -Ukraine to join NATO i mean when it can't have sweden or finland how would they get Ukraine ? It need unanimity and i don't think it will happen !

[@zombieoverlord5173]

@@fabienherry6690 I don't think you realize it can take actual years to join NATO. And Europe is on the verge of political collapse? Hello? Are we in fantasy land now?

[@fabienherry6690]

@@zombieoverlord5173 Look at target debt! Look at what happened during covid! Look at how it reacted to the energy crisis! Look how European demand for retiree reform is going in France! Look how it was refused in the last referendum they did! Yeah even heavily pro European people that spewed the "its for peace, it make us powerful" are now saying that we should destroy this abomination! Politics are whipping the people with a "we would need to pay 14 billions for this essential public service so guess we have to close it... Yeah send 80 billions to Europe no probleme and if we are nice we might get 40 billions back to buy what daddy want us to buy..." As for nato yeah it take years so does the "military operation" it look like so you can't says it's a "fait accompli" PS : no comment on the rest of the bullet points?

[@pekkamustonen6654]

No. NATO is a house of cards. And Ukraine... don't belive It's not going to happen, sorry. Have a nice summer.

[@Xenofer1]

Putin best CIA agent confirmed!

[@cheezy1969]

"For hundreds of millions of people, the fall of the Berlin Wall was a great triumph: The moment marked the end of hated dictatorships and the beginning of a better era. But for the KGB officers stationed in Dresden, the political revolutions of 1989 marked the end of their empire and the beginning of an era of humiliation." Anne Applebaum

[@quanganhvu6791]

Not sure how genuinely those KGB officers were humiliated but their pockets certainly got a lot deeper in the decade after that

[@AsbestosMuffins]

​​@@quanganhvu6791 as well the KGB agents were probably more aware of the hypocrisy and hollowness of their empire than anyone else. Like how most of the far right in the US don't privately believe in the crazy shit they say, they might have welcomed the change because they all seemingly ended up better off and in power over the quasi elected buerocracy

[@larzkruber822]

@@quanganhvu6791 Pretty much the reason why they feel humiliated .

[@DauthEldrvaria]

​@@quanganhvu6791 no one cares

[@davidelliott5843]

The lesser KGB became watermelon “green” activists. They are why much of Europe scrapped its nuclear power industry. The USSR collapsed but EUSSR is gradually filling the space.

[@jamielondon6436]

If Perun's strategic goal was to provide top level quality content on this general topic, he has succeeded completely.

[@peterni2234]

Glorious Success

[@harrycee656]

Russian political goals reminds me of the people popular in highschool constantly reliving the glory days.

[@IThinkAndIWonder]

From my perspective, having found you through your Ukraine/Russian conflict analysis, you are by far the best source of genuine objective war analysis on KZbin. I enjoy each of your offerings that inform and enhance my opinions and knowledge, so while I am not giving you fists full of money I will recognize that your depth of research and work on these topics definitely warrant a pay day. I will most definitely continue to hit that 'like' button and continue to patronize your channel. THANK YOU!

[@fabienherry6690]

He is logical and search for fact , objective he is not !

[@garyconnors2104]

This is one of Perun's best videos. That's saying a lot given his amazing string of excellent content. He provides a conceptual framework for evaluating Russian grand strategy and demonstrates its failure in an organized and logical fashion. This video steps back from the trees and gives and overview of the forest like we rarely see in media (print, television, and internet).

[@neoliberal6758]

It's all nonsense, would you like to buy some land on the moon?

[@U.H8]

💙💛👍🏻🇸🇪

[@oldsarj]

It is! It did.

[@thestraightroad305]

Agreed!!

[@XXx-mk8dk]

Up to now the best perun work. Really very good.

[@reaperking2121]

" If you are ever in trouble and need someone to come off the sideline and hit them with the chair its uncle sam". What a quote. You had me rolling on the floor with laughter at that one. Also, as the one-year anniversary of this war is coming up, I wanted to thank you for your commentary over the last year. Its been insightful, humorous, entertaining and deeply enriching and left me far better informed about the state of current geopolitical situations.

[@williamyoung9401]

Same! LOL! (43:20)

[@Nothingseen]

This channel has given me the strangest moments of patriotic pride. From an hour explaining why our Military Industrial Complex is utterly unmatched in its output to being described as the best guy to have on your side in a bar fight, it's been a strange journey. Especially since the guys who used to yell at me for thinking we should spend ungodly amounts of money on, like, infrastructure are now all convinced our gay tanks will blow up and Russia is winning.

[@reaperking2121]

@@Nothingseen I always understood that it was a privelge to live in the USA. But this youtube channel really put into context just how absolutely absurd the US is in terms of sheer economic and military power.

[@everettputerbaugh3996]

And just for spite, the U.S. has several museums to use as chairs (if a few years are available to refit them) in the form of Battleships. We have some of the Iowa class as well as older ones open for tours. LOL

[@michaelhurlbut4830]

@@everettputerbaugh3996 USS Texas is in drydock now. Imagine a 100 year old battleship driving up and battering the Russian Black Sea fleet with 14 inch shells.

[@kazeryu4834]

I don’t remember where I heard it but one quote that stuck with me was “nobody wins a war, somebody just losses less badly”

[@michaelparker8657]

You have once again outdone anyone on the net in terms of in-depth analysis, (often subtle, sometimes not) humor, and your ability to see through the political smoke screens. I applaud you.

[@tietokanta6341]

There is an old quote in Finland: "Swedes we are not, Russians we do not want to become, let us be finns" I think the meaning of this quote is shared between all sovereign countries of eastern Europe.

[@jpnewman1688]

Those European countries are just puppets of Great Satan and the almighty Federal Reserve GODS.. 💵 💵 💯💯

[@user-mt4bh5sm5o]

Including russian speaking areas of do called "Ukraine". Or not? Double standards.

[@klegdixal3529]

@@user-mt4bh5sm5o tell me - if Canadians, Irish or Australian speak English does this means they must be subjects of Charles III?

[@Radonatorr]

@@user-mt4bh5sm5o Thanks to Russia, all those areas of Ukraine no longer speak Russian. No one in the entire Central-Eastern Europe wants to speak Russian ever again. And you have only yourselves to blame for that.

[@johnridout6540]

@@user-mt4bh5sm5o Those Russian speaking areas are where Russia has killed the most civilians.

[@LeeBrown92038]

Dear Perun, greetings from Moscow and thank you for this video. The misguided politics of our county and terrible priority choices are going to be the reason for its demise. My only hope is that in the future our politicians will focus on the well-being of the citizens instead of world conquest. P.S. I would absolutely vote for you as a mayor of Moscow.

[@Wulfie219]

I vote you to be his secretary !

[@whogivesaflyingfock5401]

And i vote for russians to be held to account in an international court.

[@megadick6000]

@@whogivesaflyingfock5401 mate it was the political elite in Moscow that launched the invasion, not the population. I know polls suggest that a large proportion of Russians support the war, this one clearly doesn't. Why be a dick?

[@waynebernitt2806]

Cheers from Australia comrade. I think we can separate the people from the government. Good luck my friend.

[@TheDavidlloydjones]

@@whogivesaflyingfock5401 "Putin to The Hague" is a fine idea -- but knowing that forces us to see that the fight is not in Ukraine, it's in the minds of the Russian public. Until they're willing to put the handcuffs on him and put him on the plane, it's an idle dream. Listen carefully and speak thoughtfully to any Russian friends and acquaintances you may make.

[@obstreperous1113]

Perun, I don't always catch your stuff immediately, but when I get the time to get back here, your reports are always what I look for first (if I have time). Your analysis skills are legend. Thanks for taking the time to make these.

[@tdb7992]

Whenever I read through the comment section on a Perun video, I'm astounded at just how smart and nice everyone is. I feel like I could have a pint and a laugh at the local pub with these blokes. It's like all the soft spoken, smarter-than-average, Gov employed data analysts who look at defence industry releases from Canberra instead of actually working have finally found our people (note: that's an exact description of myself). Perun, well done mate. To find commercial success is nice, but to find a dedicated fanbase of intelligent, rational and humourous people who return week after week to support you really illustrates how appreciated you are. Keep making Australia proud mate.

[@tomasg4623]

Most people in the comments are 105iq NPCs having no clue about anything, just going with the well-articulated popular narrative.

[@remakeit2628]

I try to multi-task by listening and reading the comments. Then a pearler comes up and you just have to laugh.... and start reading again.

[@johnsmith-ir1ne]

No u!!!!😡 .... 😘

[@remakeit2628]

@@johnsmith-ir1ne Humour Us! Or should I say humerus to the funny bone?

[@halebopp_a_cometh]

I actually love that part the most. As one guy said of Perun : "Comments section, these days, is a place where humanity goes to die - well not on this chanell!" Not only the people are so polite & smart, I have not seen this in a looong time - but on top of that, I think he has some of the most amazing individuals ever, when I read this comment on hisVideo called "Infantry Fighting Vehicles in Ukraine - losses, lessons & will Western IFVs matter?" Here it goes : "Honestly, thank you Perun. Today, I've been in surgery for 4 hours and I was awake the whole time. It was a very unpleasant and painful experience. I usually watch your videos right away, but I saved this one for my surgery date to help keep my mind occupied. Through the 4 hours, I listened to your videos back-to-back and as unpleasant as the surgery was, you got me through it. So I wholeheartedly wanted to thank you." The guy is having surgery where he needed to stay awake, and he saved his video to listen to - about Infantry Figthing Vehicles. Amazing 😂

[@sixstringedthing]

It wasn't my personal pick in the Patreon poll, but this topic had a clear lead. Perun gives his audience what they ask for, unless there's reason not to. And dropping early this week too, bravo!

[@PerunAU]

I've always felt that if people are so invested that they chose to support the channel financially, it's only right that I let them weigh in on the direction it takes. Sometimes if information isn't available or there's some other compelling reason, I have to change release plans, but I want to try to listen to the Patrons and wider audience where I can.

[@msytdc1577]

@@PerunAU IMO you've been spot on with what topics you choose to cover week by week so I'd say it's been a good strategy and that those smaller groups of people are likely pretty representative of the wider audience, which is very much not a given, many projects, shows, games, political parties, etc., get misdirected from consensus of the whole when they cater to the most active, loudest, and often most extreme members of their communities, so cheers to the Perunians for being normal. 👍

[@irgendwieanders2121]

@@PerunAU 🥰💝🥰💝🥰💝🥰

[@christineshotton824]

@@PerunAU And that, sir, is why your videos routinely outperform "the media" in both quality and viewership.

[@johanmetreus1268]

@@PerunAU Just to add nuance, Your first videos didn't gain popularity because people were demanding hour long power points, but because they were needed to fill a knowledge gap. Hence my advice is that if you see something missing in the general information flow, do feel free to once in a while give what you feel is needed rather than what is wanted. Also, at some time you should make yourself a fortune by creating the Ultimate Guide to Powerpoint Presentations (or How to keep the Audience Awake discussing accounting, and have them ask for more).

[@crystallee9481]

Love your program.. I’m Taiwanese living in Australia. Will you do “Taiwan” next please? I’m very interested to hear your honest opinions & analysis. All my relatives in Taiwan are worry..living on edge regards to China Xi Jinping’s plan invasion by force..Is Taiwan similar situation with Ukraine?

[@lynleygilchrist7703]

Ohhhhhh I want a video on this too!! I’m on Perun’s Patreon so I’ll start badgering for it for both of us ❤

[@thomaslove6494]

I just want you to know that as an American... I will urge my government to help Taiwan in every way possible if that horrible decision to invade ever takes place. Americans view Taiwanese people as some of the best and brightest people on the planet.... As well as a great ally!

[@tdb7992]

I'm glad you are here in Australia - I hope you feel at home here.

[@DavidVT23]

@@lynleygilchrist7703 On a previous video, he said he would not be covering cross-strait tensions. That doesn't necessarily preclude an analysis of Taiwan's capabilities, but it doesn't seem likely to me. On the other hand, he may have changed his mind.

[@setlerking]

I will say, because Taiwan is an island, and the nature of the China v Taiwan conflict spanning a far longer time. It’s unlikely China will ever invade Taiwan, not impossible, but it would not be successful. Taiwan is a defensible island far (enough) from the Chinese mainland. To invade French Normandy in 1944 the largest invasion force in history was needed. That was required before the vast array of high precision missile systems and anti air defence. The current Taiwanese defence forces strength would require the Chinese military to invade with more ships, more manpower and equipment than would probably fit in the Taiwanese strait. The sheer size required would be so immense that it would become a massive “fish in a barrel” targets to any Taiwanese cruise missile system

[@jnh2174]

Excellent job, as usual. Although light on visuals, this is the best analysis channel I've found. You sir, set the bar very high. Great job!

[@homeworksdone2378]

Putin: increases civilan death toll by 15500% We did it Patrick! We saved the city!

[@Steyr32]

Those people would have died either way in a 100 years.

[@Wolf-Spirit_Alpha-Sigma]

@@Steyr32 "Comrade! Bring more vodka. We're all going to die in 100 years, so why wait? Let's drink ourselves to death this weekend. Cheers!"

[@rabbi120348]

"We had to destroy the village to save it." US Major in Vietnam.

[@waltershearls]

@rabbi120348 lmao that's all you guys say when you don't actually have anything to say. "Whataboutism" about a War 50+ years ago...

[@jimgraham6722]

Thanks Perun Most countries fail abysmally at grand strategy because they either don't have one, or if they do, it is either inappropriate, ignored or totally unrealistic.

[@BiggestCorvid]

It's hard to get everyone whipped up for the status quo, and convincing people to ignore reality is a great way to do it. But then reality come knocking and your achievable goals under a realistic government become unattainable. Russia need not be having any of these problems right now but they do.

[@krissteel4074]

Now just imagine you're in a silo doing the decision making with 10 other blokes, who are only there because one of them can kill the other 9 with nothing more than a phone call. It would be amazing how blinkered, laser focused and unrealistic some of those goals could get As funny as that would make for a movie, it sadly really sucks for everyone else in reality and that's sort of how we ended up here with Russia doing Russian things

[@bla5102]

Well, we have to realise that initially everyone expected the war to be finished in a few days. If that happened then it would have been a tactical victory. Still not a strategic one tho. Tho arguably it might have allowed Russia to project strength and the US to look weak.

[@eesti1234]

Perun just started his campaign to be a moyor of Moscow afther the war.🤭

[@Goulmy86]

To OP I'd add this: Or changes every election....

[@joeasher2876]

@Perun I know you started as a gaming channel but I hope you continue with these military industrial/analysis videos for the foreseable future. I have no way to judge if your gaming videos were good because they aren't aimed at me, but the ones on the newer subject are absolutely top tier and I appreciate them.

[@heretic-668]

They're also very, very good. 🙂 He applies a very similar approach to both; deep strategic thinking, goal-focused mentality, and I am guessing a whole lot of spreadsheets.

[@nicholasheidrich1875]

He was a gaming channel?

[@togamid]

@@nicholasheidrich1875 This channel started out as a gaming channel with a once-off explainer about the war. Now his gaming content has moved to www.youtube.com/@PerunGamingAU

[@mariusiulian86]

Great job Perun! It was good to zoom out and hear about the strategic implications. Thanks for the hard work put in your videos!

[@hiss9989]

As one of the Greeks that had a positive opinion of Russia and wanted Europe to become more friendly and integrated with them, I attest to my opinion doing a complete 180

[@hiss9989]

@@johnniemac173 I'm an atheist, and I think one can be right for all the wrong reasons.

[@danielkol477]

Putin tried to be friendly with EU and US during early 00's dummy, not his fault US chose confrontation

[@karinfroller7403]

As a German I can tell you we or at least many of us really believed in being friendly with Russia, integrate them in a common European peace order, just be good neighbors. But with a Russian leader like Putin this is just not possible. He proved it over and over. And with his propaganda and militarism he infected the mainstream of Russian population. So now it becomes more and more questionable if this would be even possible after Putin.

[@jacob_massengale]

I mean I support Ukraine independence and also peaceful relations with Europe and Russia long term...

[@karinfroller7403]

@@jacob_massengale I support a strong European defense just in case Russia doesn't stop. With the goal to live in peace.

[@treebush]

Damn It is wild its been a year of fighting yet at the same time feels longer and shorter at the same time

[@alantaylor353]

And that's just how we feel watching it from the safety of our own homes..... Imagine how it must feel for the bloody Ukrainian's.!! Even the Russian conscripts who've been deceived, tricked, threatened & used by their own government. All thanks to that fishy lipped, dead eyed little man in the Kremlin & his greedy friends.!!

[@PerunAU]

I really hope we're not making that same reflection on 24 February 2024

[@Blakearmin]

@@PerunAU Added that to my calendar! You are legitimately in my top-favorite channels. Right up there with Isaac Arthur, Explosions & Fire, and Internet Comment Etiquette.

[@nobodyherepal3292]

"there a decades when nothing happens, and their are weeks when decades happen"

[@jloiben12]

@@PerunAU Unfortunately, I wouldn’t put money on that

[@havefaith3213]

Amazing, how you put in order this presentation and the work you've done to explain so clearly. My hats off to you young man. Knowing history, and the back stories about history. And everything you said is true.

[@Feralzen]

It's been my view since the beginning of the conflict that giving a better economic alternative than the EU to former satellites would have been a much better way of achieving stability and security for Russia. Unfortunately, the unwillingness of the Russian political apparatus to change its ways doomed that potential road. Good analysis 👍

[@martavdz4972]

We wouldn´t have accepted it. It wasn´t just the economy. It was going back to our normal situation. Many of the satellite states had more ties with Southern, Northern and Western Europe than with Russia throughout their 1.200 years of history. My country (Czechia) had kings from Luxembourg and Austria building infrastructure and a university when Russia was barely starting to exist. My tiny country has thousands of medieval castles, just like France or Italy. Russia has none. In the 1990´s, many people were eager to learn English, French, Italian, Greek, Swedish, and to travel to those countries, to do business with them. Russia would never have been able to provide an attractive alternative. Also, may I remind you that Russia nowadays has some 145 million inhabitants, while the former USSR satellites in Europe have around 190 million. Russia is basically the young and arrogant cousin who has recently somehow managed to put together a business company and now yells that everyone should work for him.

[@martavdz4972]

You see, that´s why so many people in some of the former satellite states hate Russia so much. Russia has managed to delete the 1.000 years, I mean ONE THOUSAND YEARS for people around the world like you, and to make you think that we somehow belong to the same region as Russia. To begin with, most of the former satellite states use the Latin alphabet, not the Cyrillic one, which would be a problem in itself as many people here can´t read the Cyrillic alphabet. And in the case of my country Czechia, there´s the simple fact that Russia is 1.500 kilometres away. That was a lot in a world without trains, planes and the internet. The first records of Prague come from the 9th century. Then, there were contacts with Greece, the Balkans, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Italy, Germany, Poland and Lithuania, Luxembourg, Sweden, Turkey. The first direct contact with Russia came in the 19th century during the Napoleonic wars. That´s one thousand years of contact with other countries than Russia. ONE THOUSAND YEARS.

I just want to point out that you've been doing these hour-long analyses weekly for the last 10 months. Like, for real, that's an achievement! Thank you for all the great content

[@nn123654]

After saying in the first few videos "I have nothing to add and this will be a short series." It's a pleasant surprise Perun didn't stop. He may not have gotten everything 100% right, but he did an amazing job at trying and caring about accuracy, as well as covering the war in a way that goes past a fleeting headline.

[@ahernandez50]

Indeed his content is amazing. I just regret that I rarely have the time to listen to the whole analyses.

[@jinkky]

​@@ahernandez50 These make my 1.5 hr long commute bearable.

[@aegisfate117]

​@@jinkky live closer

[@razor1uk610]

Along with *_Perun_* another KZbinr channel has been covering Ukraine, usually 6 days per week, ...since the invasion's start, for 2 to 3 half hours per night, and has raised over $800,000 ! ($0.8Million !) for Ukrainian charities alone !! They're called... *_The Enforcer_*

[@mercs7849]

Deep, thoughtful analysis, as always. It's an honor to be able to study this conflict with you, sir. As a 30+ y/o russian, I was taught the points you talked about at school and university. And my conclusions about the situation are also the same at this time. Even if I were a russian supremacist, which I am not (if anything, I hated the country I was born into ever since my own military service in the days past), it takes too many logical leaps to presume anything can be achieved by russia in the course of this conflict. Vatniks are simply delusional. I've witnessed every narrative they push falling flat on it's face, some of them personally (like "freezing in europe"). See, when you live among vatniks, you always doubt yourself. What if those people are right and I'm wrong? But thanks to this conflict, I have no doubts anymore.

[@barrybolton1396]

Growing up in the cold war and serving on the border...I was hoping America and Russia could unite to counter China...and I wanted to visit Russia and meet Russians...sadly, this will not be possible in my lifetime. I feel foolish for "letting my guard down" in respect to my hope for peace with Russia.

[@angelikaskoroszyn8495]

@barrybolton When I was growing up I hoped that Russia could be a counterbalance for EU. As much as I love European Union and don't really want my country to leave it I also recognize the danger of one block completly dominating the whole continent. Without a healthy competition EU could slip and lose its progressive (by progressive I mean extreamly new idea that cooperation > war) goals and ideas. Sadly Russia don't know how to do wield its soft-power - something EU is incredibly great at Aaand nowadays China is becoming an alternative to American influence in Europe

[@floydlooney6837]

Russia was able to take parts of Georgia and Transnistria and keep them (defacto), now they could have kept parts of Ukraine taken in 2014 but they invaded instead. The west didn't care about what they took in 2014. Did Russia get dumber since 2008?

[@barrybolton1396]

@@angelikaskoroszyn8495 since 1776 we've had one block dominating the continent. It has worked well for the US. Now I realize the world would be a better place without the Russian/ Soviet governments.

[@peka2478]

I was born in Russia as well, but live in the West, and still find logical leaps in my thinking, for example - when did wwii start, and who did it? And when did the Soviet Union join wwii? (Если твой ответ на второй вопрос начинается с "великая отечественная..." Или "22. Июня 1941, ..." - то сработало и с тобой...)

[@hermanator2]

Thank you for pulling the various threads of this theme together. I really enjoyed your thought experiment/exploration on this one.

[@acesw6124]

Thank you for your clear Intros, they put things in a perspective and prevent misconceptions about the overall picture that some news outlets like to portray.

[@avpguy11]

As an American I genuinely took being called "the least-worst option" as a compliment. Thank you Perun. Edit: Also I hope my country is always willing to step off the sideline with the proverbial chair.

[@warbrain1053]

Most african/middle east/etc nations just pray no super power invades them

[@tri4cejawn365]

We have a very big chair

[@aaroncabatingan5238]

Nah, why bring a chair when the US can bring an AR 15?

[@avpguy11]

@@warbrain1053 So do I and I pray we never invade another country again either. I just hope that any sovereign & free nation can count on the US to help if a dictator gets imperial ideas again (looking at you China and Iran).

[@warbrain1053]

@@avpguy11 there are many more wars brewing. North africa has a risk of one of the most brutals wars since the irak iran war, Morocco-Algiers. Both investing billions of dollars into military, over a thousand tanks each, quite big airforces... And high risk of european intervention

[@Chauzuvoy]

I remember in high school in the US having to be taught that Ukraine was a sovereign nation and not "the Ukraine" a region of Russia. That's the level of my cold war thinking that still happened in the late '00s. This invasion has done more to guarantee that the world will talk about Ukraine as a nation than literally anything else anyone could have done.

[@Momusinterra]

Whatever is left of it, if anything.

[@peternewman7940]

It was always "the" Ukraine to us in the English language. Not good. There is no article. And Ukraine is a country not a region! The war is both a crime and a tragedy.

[@jplayzow]

Intruigingly over the last decade this too has changed I graudated a few years ago and wasn't ever really taught about this

[@thkarape]

I never saw the use of the article as implying non sovereignity but maybe that's just me.

[@CB6028]

Another superb video that delves into so many interesting aspects of the conundrum that is Russia. I spent many happy days visiting friends and family in Russia from 1999 to 2015. It’s very sad that I can’t go back and they can’t visit me here in the US. I pray every day for the end of this horrible war in the victory that Ukraine so vastly deserves.

[@i-etranger]

Care to explain why Russia is a conundrum? Otherwise our whole world is a conundrum, no need to single out Russia. What is happening is ua is very unfortunate, of course .

[@binbows2258]

@@i-etranger Did you watch the video? Their entire history is a combination of tragedy, missed opportunity, collapse, death, war, and oppression.

[@TheReubenShow]

I am watching these lectures because you make them. KZbin shows me more because I watch them. CNN sells one story, Yaroslav from Ukraine sells another. DW News is trying, but has to keep content brief and compelling. I am emotionally pro-Ukraine, these videos help ground the conversation in data to where I can see the other side more rationally.

[@KevinMitchell1963]

There are many unlikely things that have happened, in the world, since Russia invaded The Ukraine. For me personally (just a regular guy from Canada) the most unlikely thing is this: the notion that I , a tradesman, would voluntarily be awake every Sunday morning at 5 am and eagerly opening my phone to watch a …. Power Point Presentation….. well, that’s just preposterous…. Or, at least, that’s what I would have thought a year ago…. Yet… here we are…. Thank You. That’s how compelling I find your content. On that scale, this week’s episode was, in my humble opinion, the best one yet. (And that’s saying something). I really really enjoyed it. Thank You. You don’t need to worry about being “too dry.” That’s the quality I love!

[@Jazzisa311]

Psst, please stop saying 'The Ukraine'. It's a lingual way of shaping Ukraine into an area instead of a sovereign country. It's just Ukraine^^

[@jessehachey2732]

It’s Ukraine, not “the Ukraine”! I’m sure it wasn’t intentional but you’re just perpetuating the Ruzzian attempt at delegitimizing Ukraine as a country (which is the intent behind the diminutive “the” Ukraine). Just sayin’, language matters! 🇺🇦🌻🇨🇦

[@doxun7823]

I am consistently amazed that this level of insightful and clearheaded analysis is available for free. Perun you are an absolute Legend!

[@tomasg4623]

What exactly is insightful about misrepresenting history?

[@doxun7823]

@@tomasg4623 Lol. Your welcome to try and "correct" his "misrepresentations" but I think we both know it will just be a bunch of Russian talking points.

[@sleezerbarb9670]

​@@tomasg4623this guy is very bias. I've seen him comment under propagandist like Dennys & operator starski.& Giving them props. I never looked at his videos the same after that.

[@enriqueperezarce5485]

@@sleezerbarb9670 He’s not so what if Russia gets the best case scenario, they’ve lost more then they could gain lmao

[@sleezerbarb9670]

@@enriqueperezarce5485 yeah I've seen him agree with propagandist Starski & Dennys in the comments section. Perun is in line with mainstream narrative and in their minds Russia cannot be allowed to win so they are already stocking up on copium in case of a Russian victory they can still tell themselves that Russia lost.

[@pl2877]

Thank you for taking the time to share your informed insight into the war.

[@ryanreedgibson]

Finally found your calling! I am astounded at the growth of your detailed content.

[@MTerrance]

In 1994 my son was playing on a very good Pony Baseball team(he was 14). His team was approached to host a touring Russian baseball team of the same (or near same) age from Sportek Moskva (now they only seem to have a European football team, but my impression was it was a broader sports organization at that time). It was some part of a sports exchange program. When they showed up for an exhibition game in Pittsburgh the kids were big, but not adults, so far so good. They were well coached and gave as good as they got. None of them spoke English. Their coach/chaperon was in his late 30's. By the 4th inning, he was seated in the stands, with a very large duffel bag from which he produced various items for sale, including a huge (15-inch) perestroika doll I regret not buying to this day. It must have had at least 10 nested images starting with Lenin (the biggest doll) and ending with Gorbachev (about 1 inch) (the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991). They needed to raise money for their tour and we obliged. The coach, who spoke pretty good English, had a bottle of Stolichnya which he proceeded to down - while selling several unopened bottles to the parents. By the end of the game, he was pretty hammered. (They had a driver, fortunately.) I wish we (the USA) had been able to help Russia make a better transition to a democratic government, but that just wasn't in the cards. It was such a lost opportunity - and we and Ukraine are paying the price now. Then again, it may have been impossible regardless of what the West did. A kid on that team in 1994 would be 43 today - I just hope none of those kids (now adults) have ended up fighting in Ukraine.

[@bbirda1287]

I wish we could have done some sort of Operation Paperclip and grabbed all the ex-Soviet aerospace and space, hell, just scientists in general. Soyuz rockets are the equivalent of old VW bugs, tiny and beat up as hell, but damn do those things purr and last forever. Except, y'know, when they start leaking coolant.

[@tezzy5584]

It was absolutely on the cards - but America decided on a policy called the Wolfowitz Doctrine.

[@shigekax]

​@@bbirda1287 this is an unethical and amoral thing to do You can't just take people if they don't want to move But if the then-new russia was more open minded the same and more could have been achieved

[@fandzejka9540]

Spartak (Spartacus). European sport clubs tend to have multiple sport sections (Barcelona also plays handball, basketball, hockey etc).

[@fdllicks]

Wow, i LOVED your story! thanks for writing it up!!!!

[@GeoScorpion]

You're one of the few KZbinrs I listen to with a notebook and pen in hand. It takes me hours to get through your videos because I keep stopping and rewinding. Thank you for all the hard work you do on the research and presentations on this and all of your other videos.

[@mchozen2958]

I agree. Each Perun video is akin to the best university lecture ever!

[@jamesduda6017]

I really like the approach in this episode. The overall point of view is a great change of pace over the more focused approach every now and then.

[@charliehansen6584]

Every week after a few Perun drops, I'm listening to it as I go to sleep every night. The Aussie accent and actual quality research make your videos such an easy listen.

[@GARDENER42]

An entire video covering the Ukrainian revolution is something I'd be very interested in seeing.

[@Hyperious_in_the_air]

watch "Winter on Fire" to see it as it happened.

[@conserva-chan2735]

It'd be great but that's not really the type of content he makes

[@Error_404-F.cks_Not_Found]

Can we get a lot more thumbs up on this !!!!!

[@micindir4213]

Sometimes it’s though of as permanent revolution. 90-91 - student revolution and miner’s strikes from Donbas which led to independence. 2004 - Orange Revolution. First majority- led 2014 - revolution of dignity aka acab day More or less every event was then reacted by Russia. Also look up Tuzla island 2003. This war was about to start then

[@watdeneuk]

Dude, where the fuck did you even come from. Out of nowhere, giving top-notch quality lectures, hour after hour on in-depth subjects where i will just make time to listen to. Absolute gems of video's on so many levels. Great work man.

[@equarg]

The KZbin Gods saw his first upload, were pleased by an intelligent and attention grabbing hour long PowerPoint, and elevated its status in the search anolog.

[@pan2aja]

And you didn't feel suspicious at all aren't you 😊

[@watdeneuk]

@@pan2aja Of what? Elaborate.

[@pan2aja]

@@watdeneuk how he came out of nowhere with good quality content ?

[@erikrungemadsen2081]

He comes from a land down under!

[@Fazoer]

Again a great insight and great quality video. Even when i feel saturated by the grimnes of the situation, i realize this is a luxery to be gratefull for, as soon i start watching your video it is enveloping and somehow leaves me feel more optimistic. I think its the joy of finding something to agree to and feel enriched by. Thank you again for putting this together and sharing.

[@tigersspeaks5779]

I've been trying to study and understand this subject all year and I think this video finally put it all into perspective for me. Thanks

[@fabienherry6690]

There is a few point he miss like when he says that one of the thing that made the URSS fall was the conflict in afghanistan ... Yeah funny . Also he says that russia can't sell to europe anymore that false it can't sell DIRECTLY to europe . He also miss the fact that russia ressources ARE still there and in a world with global shortage energy and ressources producer will have the upper hand especially when lots of the technology has been exported

[@tigersspeaks5779]

@@fabienherry6690 I get what you mean. I'm not using Perun as a proxy for my own critical analysis and I too have issues with the "Afghanistan caused USSR to collapse" narrative same as the "Reagan beat the Soviet Union" narrative. There's a parallel to what you're saying about Russian not being able to directly sell to Europe in the Chinese-American "trade war". I've known for years it was a mostly contrived trade war because whenever a tariff is enacted, either side can simply utilize the money printer to bypass the tariff in the long term, rendering the tariff unproductive and even counter productive to the domestic populace. Trade is a weird beast in the modern world not so easily explained on its face by the public policies enacted by each nation.

[@tigersspeaks5779]

The major problem I've had for the past couple of years is that I was one of these people who would listen to Russian propaganda and I did for 10 years. I've been relearning everything from the ground up and in a very short time this past two years. I have sort of overcome intellectual shell shock because of it all.

[@jonson856]

I think this video is one of the most important videos you have ever made. Because you are addressing many points pro Russians always bring up and countering them so easily.

[@barrybolton1396]

Agreed. I was thinking the same thing

[@generaldreagonlps6889]

It came as no surprise to read a while back that ukrainian became very popular on language learning apps or regular language courses last year. But it was very interesting to read that by far the largest increase in interest in learning ukrainian came from areas in eastern ukraine.

[@whom382]

I know a woman from Kharkiv who speaks fluent Russian, English and Ukranian. She doesn't want to speak Russian anymore.

[@KaKrassh]

Your language is the foundation of your culture. Keeping it alive or regaining it is key to your cultural identity. Keeping your language and culture alive is a form of passive resistance to being oppressed by invaders.

[@albertdittel8898]

yeah, because they want to be able to speak some Ukrainian when they are brought to a cellar for interrogation by Azov and the likes

[@DonetskiLetsplayshik]

@@albertdittel8898 just shows you have an incredibly warped perception and zero knowledge of how it's actually like on the ground. Why don't you go to Kharkiv and ask if they are afraid of "Azov" and the likes - because Azov was built ground-up in Kharkiv, by Kharkiv. People in Azov speak Russian daily. And Azov is not some sort of a gestapo either - since 2014 it has changed management and been incorporated into official army structures. It is one of hundreds of brigades comprising the Ukrainian army. The focus on Azov is bizzare.

[@Anonie324]

@@albertdittel8898 I wonder how you'll justify yourself to other people in the coming decades, if and when word gets out that you sided with Russia in the 2020s.

[@maxpayne5449]

Thanks for the full deep dive into it! It is also pleasure to see how well you understand the Ukrainain stance. As UA citizen, I confirm that everything you told here about our motivation is true. Your other videos are also on-point w.r.t. that. You well informed into what's happening in our heads, good job :)

[@CultureCrossed64]

"If you're ever in trouble and you need someone to come in from the sidelines and hit 'em with the chair, it's Uncle Sam" Man... Perun with some fire lines in this video

[@Rob_F8F]

15:45 In Slavic history, every moment of hope must be immediately followed by crushing disappointment and despair.... Every Russian novel ever!

[@infantiltinferno]

"- Oh, come, don't we all think ourselves Napoleons now in Russia? Porfiry Petrovitch said with alarming familiarity."

[@baronvonlimbourgh1716]

This definatly was your best video this past year! Really good!

[@thesilkpainter]

After a year if listening to all kinds of talks, experts, professors, politicians, activists etc I can say: in my opinion you nailed it.

[@VladKepes]

This is my favourite presentation after the corruption and lies episodes. A topic well deserved to be examined, and the delivery was 10/10. Bravo!

[@albertdittel8898]

well I guess you are more into russophobia than into good military analysis, looking at your favorites...

[@MrBendylaw]

@@albertdittel8898 Vatnik spotted!

[@VladKepes]

@@albertdittel8898 Actually, I'm into both.

[@militantcapitalist4606]

@@albertdittel8898 lmao, tell us more about russophobia while threatening us with nuclear war; god damn ruske bots, you are getting dumber and dumber; get the smart ones were mobilized or fled, huh?

[@archergirl8543]

Why because he gives you warm feelings about Russia losing!!! Keep on dreaming 😅

[@Biologist19681]

"demilitarizing your opponent by face-tanking their ammunition reserves with your infantry and armored vehicles.." lines like this are one of the reasons I am watching Perun first thing Sunday morning (US east coast time).

[@Billy01113]

Absolutly 😂

[@Uncle_Neil]

I watch these twice, once for pure info, second time before bedtime. Bookends of reality in a time of absolute lunacy.

[@fakeplaystore7991]

On the other hand, that's what people say is what's happening on Bakhmut right now, which I like to call The Falkenhayn Cope. "It's a trap to bleed them dry!" that's exactly what the German commander said about Verdun, and it famously endedbwith the Germans getting 10% MORE casualties than the French.

[@Biologist19681]

@@fakeplaystore7991 it's what they're doing, but is it intentional?

[@tipofthespear7182]

I know you source a lot of your information from Ground News and others but your ability to put it into a well formed well explained format is within my estimation unrivalled and without peers. In other words mate you are unreal ! 🇦🇺

[@kristina7065]

This channel is an absolute gem. I can’t believe that I’m getting the quality of content like this for free. Also, not sure if it’s this video or the one I listened to before, but I appreciate that before telling about a negatively-miracle scenario of russia winning you add a trigger warning for ukrainians such as myself 😅

[@Vyleea]

"Werent't even paid a salary, because it was expected they woukd make their money through bribes." - Bruh, that's some next level corruption fostering :O

[@wilfdarr]

It may or may not be accurate: there's jurisdictions in the states that also don't pay a salary, especially small town mayor's etc: they're expected to be sufficiently independently wealthy to serve without a salary. Chinese politicians also make a paltry sum but then get housing, food, cars, scholarships for their children's university, etc etc provided by the state. Not sure if or how the idea translates to Russia though.

[@whysoserious8666]

In the US we call them the local police department. But rather than taking bribes, they write traffic tickets. In the end it is basically the same scheme.

[@dennisyoung4631]

Sort of like tax collectors (supposedly) in Ancient Rome?

[@davidradtke160]

@@whysoserious8666I’d argue congress is not far off from this. While their salary’s are large for the average person, my salary is not far off from a house rep with a lot less power or influence. Congress is really not paid enough for they to car about their employment relative to what they can get from private industry on retirement. DC is also more expensive then where I’d live. Honestly other become a house member would probably be a net down grade for my lifestyle. Makes they way to open to “bribery AKS lobbying.”

[@dzzope]

This is a common issue in ex soviet states.. Things like military and police, If you don't bribe, you don't rise (or in many cases even get in or stay).. If you don't take bribes, you can't afford to live because your salary is so low and you have to pay bribes to your superior to keep your job. I lived in kyiv for 4 years (2012-16) the only legal way for the company I worked for to get me a residence permit (without marriage or baby) was to bribe an official to get a document, to get a series of other documents, to legitimately get the original document to finally get the residents permit (there are loads of these chicken & egg type, cyclical bureaucratic hoops you have to jump through to do anything. It means everything is systemically corrupt but also the state will always have you for breaking some law somewhere if they ever need to exert control or silence you.)

[@shartnado1347]

What Perun left out was that the biggest L for Putin was that he had to resort to the mobilisation. I think one objective of the invasion was to prove Russia could field an expeditionary force capable of toppling lesser nations with its peacetime force. The goal was to duplicate the US invasion of Iraq and prove that Russia is a big boy with capabilities to project conventional force globally. That's why it took so long for Putin to resort to mobilization because there was no scenario where this would not have worked out.

[@whom382]

And that is strongly tied to a big L Perun did discuss but didn't get into the details. The annexation occurred because Russian Law doesn't let them use conscripts on foreign soil so they annexed so they could do the mobilization. The end result is as he mentioned, it put a goal post in concrete.

[@Steyr32]

Putins biggest L was not nuclear striking Kiev within the first day of the war. He could have won it within 2-3 days if he used the bomb. Hopefully he will resort to it because things are getting desperate. If I was in charge there wouldn't be a "Ukraine" let alone a Ukrainian issue.

[@Steyr32]

Because if he turned Ukraine into a nuclear waste land, no army can move through then he gets he's neutral buffer. But he's to stupid do it. It would only require 100 or so nukes.

[@bandenere7774]

I'd say he wanted to repeat Austria's anschluss by Hitler but ended up with the Vatnik version of Mussolini's "glorious" invasion of Greece.

[@cynthiaarnold1371]

Duplication of US invasion of Iraq is a fools errand. After the initial military overwhelm was years of insurgence and creation of ISIS. I would consider that a massive failure.

[@louislinsley3128]

Another Great job! I wait all Week for your posts!

[@onomastikon7975]

Excellent job again, one of your best! Please keep zooming out!

[@sishoonchow9381]

"Personally, I would like to humbly suggest that argument, is bullshit." - Perun 2023

[@koomaj]

This!

[@williammasselink]

Brilliantly thought out and presented analysis. Perun makes all of us a lot smarter every week. He even outdoes himself on this one. I have a much clearer understanding of the overall situation now as compared to other sources. Perun is the gold standard. Thank you for all your hard work and exhaustive research.