Russia's Impatience Problem: Why the Gaza War Has Not Spiked Oil Prices

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Wars in the Middle East often cause oil prices to spike, but we have not yet seen that with the Gaza Crisis. Why? Part of this is a change to regional dynamics and U.S. energy independence. However, the hidden story is Russia's need for money to fuel its invasion of Ukraine. This is making it hard for opposing states to believe that Russia will enforce cartel pricing, which in turn has led to substantial declines in oil prices over the last couple of months.
0:00 Crisis in the Middle East .... and Low Oil Prices?
1:55 Summary Explanation
2:47 Changing Geopolitical Alignments
4:51 U.S. Energy Independence
8:00 Russia's Cartel Problem
10:31 How Cartels Normally Work
12:12 Why Impatience Dooms Cooperation
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[@hamzamahmood9565]

The fact that U.S. is now the no:1 producer of oil and is actually a net exporter of oil blows my mind. I thought we were constantly dependent on foreign oil

[@stefanoraffo5096]

We kinda still do

[@208flatheads3]

Not the same type of oil...

[@Edax_Royeaux]

It's cause Republicans keeps preaching about the need for the US becoming oil independent when that already happened many years ago. Even a few days ago, Trump declared he would become a Dictator day one of his Presidency to drill drill drill for more oil based on this false premise they've presented the American public.

[@RobinTheBot]

Change can happen. Everyone demanded change, and it happened. It's a trick not a truth to make you feel democracy is doomed. It's only doomed if you think that, and stay home when it matters 👍

[@HKim0072]

One of the oil CEOs thinks they can get to 15.5mn bpd vs the current 13.3mn bpd in the next 5 years.

[@pax6833]

Something you didn't mention, other OPEC nations are also involved in the dilemma. The UAE was accused/suspected of not cutting production while the Sauds did, which is why oil prices didn't shoot up. Also, sanctions were lifted by the US on Iran and Venezuela, adding new production capacity from them in addition to the US. So basically, all of the 'cuts' were negated by new production from non-OPEC nations.

[@MrMakabar]

It is also the US producing more and not being bound by these deals. At the same time EV sales go up with higher oil prices as China and the EU, which are massive importers want to import less. Even the US Inflation Reduction Act aims for more EVs and hence lower oil consumption, which means more export.

[@MotoNomad350]

Minor correction: Venezuela is a founding member of OPEC.

[@edc1569]

Win-win

[@MrJdsenior]

Where does he say that Valenzuela isn't/wasn't? A clarification, maybe. @@MotoNomad350

[@aaronbaker2186]

​@@MrMakabareven better, US gasoline prices are high not because of oil prices, but because of refinery capacity. US refiners expect demand to decline (because of EVs), and don't want to make investments in increasing capacity that take 50 years to pay off. So the current gasoline price is basically the floor now, it will only go up, regardless of oil supplies or prices. It only goes down if there is a major increase in EVs, say 10% of all cars on the road. Or a major decrease in US driving.

[@stischer47]

Guyana has some of the largest untapped oil reserves in the Western Hemisphere, and the Guyana oil industry is in its infancy. Venezuela's Madero has declared Venezuela's intention of invading the oil-rich Essequibo region of Guyana, which the US has said it will not allow. It should be an interesting December.

[@jimandskittum]

Meanwhile in Syria- "Pack up boys! We're moving to Guyana"

[@darylglover7037]

The USA will not allow that Venezuela knows that its all part of Russia trying to distract the west of Ukraine and Africa

[@Emanon...]

Yeah, because nothing goes wrong when the US chooses to meddle. I swear, their strategists don't even read their own history books.

[@justinbourgeois4685]

Venezuela is simply barking for attention. They can't run their own country harldy

[@armintargaryen9216]

*Maduro

[@carlosmiguelteixeiraott3643]

"Let's start with the straightforward part, 'Geopolitical Alignments'" Now there's a phrase no one's ever said before.

[@benbookworm]

The alliteration amount is astounding. Audience aspires to achieve the same.

[@sergeykish]

$12 in 1972 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $88.33 today

[@lexpox329]

I was wondering that.

[@peterma594]

There’s another reason why the oil prices were lower than expected is because China’s economy growth speed is slow down very quickly in recent 2years .

[@donalddavis303]

Another interesting fact is that there are other players in the game. The "buyers" of the oil. If opec+ reduces supply too much, market forces kick in and then Americans and other consumers look to limit their expenses. It's a well known phenomenon that when gas prices get to equal or more the unit price of transit tickets you see a significant mode shift to public transit, thus causing more demand for better public transit in a cycle. That's one of the reasons why Europe, which in general has higher gas prices then America, also has much high public transit useage.

[@nvelsen1975]

The price hike came right at the time when I had to get a different car. I was already leaning electric, but the choice between a whopping € 2,20 per liter of petrol or a few cents per kilowatt, became a very easy one.

[@macmcleod1188]

They have already reduced their production and prices continue to fall. The US is now producing oil for export at a cost of $60 per barrel. 5% of the new cars sold are electric vehicles which reduces the demand for gasoline by about 5% and Diesel by about 2%. My gasoline is down to $2.39 a gallon.

[@edilee5909]

I haven't seen any data but it's hard to believe Americans actually cut gas demand when prices go up. I've observed a constant increase in big SUVs and pickups on the road here in Texas even when the prices peaked

[@donalddavis303]

@edilee5909 that's because Texas consistently has low gas prices due to having heavy refinery and oil production in the state. So there is a lack of transportation costs included in the cost of gas which keeps it so that the unit price of gas never really tips over the cost of public transit. And without people riding public transit there is less demand for coverage / access But what happens instead is those big suv get driven less. So instead of each kid taking a car they only have one kid drive/ parents pick up after work. Instead of driving to the grocery store multiple times a month it become a once a month thing. People push harder for wfh. Lawmakers cut gas taxes to keep unit price low.

[@donalddavis303]

@macmcleod1188 they haven't really reduced production. Not significantly. Russia is in a war and military costs have greatly expanded, with something like 6-9 thousand dollar enlistment bonuses for new soldiers, which is sometimes multiple times the average annual salary for those new recruits. That money has to come from some where, which is typically the sale of oil

[@Gamer-zq5eb]

You should make a video on Russia-Israel relations, considering there has been some tensions between them lately

[@kingace6186]

Yeah. Russia's foreign ministry have been put in an awkward position after the October 7 attacks. Some of the hostages were Russian; Russia noted that it is anti-Hamas but pro-Palestinian; Russia is allied with Iran; Russia is still calling for a ceasefire in the UN while blocking any resolution on Ukraine; Russia is decrying the IDF's collective punishment while doing the same in Ukraine; there was that anti-Israeli mob in the Dagestan Airport, too.

[@SchrodingersPussyCat]

Oh, B.S!, There has never NOT been Tensions! Russia Armed Egypt & Syria, along with Lebanon & Jordan w/ arms into Palestine several times, Beyond the 6-Day War that Arabs lost! And recently in past 8 years, the IDF Air Force flies Freely over Syrian Civil War, & Russians have no competent Air Power to stop them!

[@crowleythedemoncat]

@@kingace6186 Lavrov has been getting laughs from the audience everywhere he speaks. Once even stating that Ukraine is the aggressor, attacking Russia. They are just defending themselves.

[@AriraleLover]

​@@kingace6186учитывая, что Израиль, устраивая беспорядочные бомбардировки, едва ли убивает хотя бы 1 террориста на 20 гражданских, Россия едва ли убивает хотя бы 1 гражданского на 20-40 убитых солдат. То, насколько мало было убито гражданского населения среди украинцев, должны были заставить думать хоть кого-то, учитывая, что РФ вторая страна по армии и она вполне может просто устраивать беспорядочные бомбардировки

[@johnbeaulieu2404]

Not mentioned is that Saudi Arabia is complaining to Russia that they are no longer publishing oil production figures.

[@Chuck_Hooks]

Russia and Saudi Arabia used to laugh at US shale extraction. They don't laugh any more

[@jackthorton10]

Yeah, whose laughing now

[@tigerlancer]

What was the joke about shale extraction? Hard to get out of the ground?

[@benghiskahn3673]

Whats really mind blowing is just how gigantic US shale reserves are. I read somewhere that US shale reserves are estimated to be greater than the total global reserves of crude.

[@twitter.comelomhycy]

Really?

[@tigerlancer]

@@liberty9404 is that why usa is putting out record amounts of oil, without a care in the world? They really are trying to bankrupt opec and russia?

[@mattbowdenuh]

The other difference between today and pre-2005 is that as the price of oil rises, US shale producers increase production. The Saudis found that out a few years ago whenever they tried to make the US shale producers go bankrupt by flooding the market. The smaller ones did, but all that ultimately did was cause consolidation within the US shale producers as well as technological advancements to be even more efficient to lower the break-even cost to produce a barrel. In short, if the price gets too high, then both Russia and the Saudis lose marketshare to US producers.

[@sybrandwoudstra9236]

This might be the most American thing I gave ever heared. Bankrupcies resulting in consolidation and lower prices

[@philognosis6409]

You are forgetting that shale is high decline and capital intensive. That means that the cost of production is dependent on interest rates and their isn't a longer lock period so to speak.

[@millevenon5853]

​@@philognosis6409decline? Lol. America is at record shale production

[@justinbourgeois4685]

​@@millevenon5853he means frac wells decline right away. They rip for about 6 months then die off real quick.

[@virginiatyree6705]

You're the best William! Thanks for posting. Also, do what's best for yourself and keep doing your research & post videos when you're able. I'll be here to watch. Because, I like to watch...

[@louisquatorze9280]

As I recall, wage and price controls instituted by the Nixon administration played a large part in gasoline shortages at any price.

[@jeffbenton6183]

I didn't even know Nixon was in favor of price controls. Could you tell me more, please?

[@MikeLadnun-un4cs]

Morons with little knowledge how oil drives our economy. We need Trump back to fix current economy.

[@dontsupportrats4089]

Nixon removing the gold standard caused the inflation to start with, he wanted to print money unhindered to make the economy boom for re-election. Trump caused the inflation now, printing 80 billion a month and handing it to the stock market his last 18 months in office. (yeah, he was doing it before CVD hit and then threw in all the PPP money too).

[@SchrodingersPussyCat]

WRONG! U do not recall much. Iran took the U.S. embassy in Tehran, under Carter, who attempted an Embassy Rescue that Burnt itself. Arabs (OPEC) cut Oil sales to U.S., then America relied on Mexico & Venezuela, with Plans to (Reagan) become Energy Independent. Now U.S. is Flooding World to match OPEC cuts & Prices are To the Horror of Saudis & Russia, they are still coming down. Saudis lose Millions daily, unless they increase their Production. Putin will soon be selling to CCP & India, at 22 Dollars/Barrel, at a Loss - Just to keep the Flow going, so that their machinery does not come to a Frozen Halt, that would take 5 years to re-Start!

[@zdenekkindl2778]

TV networks should show the movie “Three days of Condor” with Robert Redford again!

[@Toothnut_Hamsterfolder]

This was a fantastic look at the intersection between geopolitics and game theory. Well done! I am looking forward to your video regarding the side note.

[@joethebassplayer]

Have you addressed Russia's "Shadow Fleet"? Thank you for your videos and time committed to these topics!

[@RagsAIN-14]

Your narrative is one but holds merit. I do share this with my son, my youngest son, cuz he's been falling down the rabbit hole lately and not looking at the overall picture. I do share these with my son so he can understand the issues and why. He asked me so many questions as an old navy rotor head in that 55 years old. He is 35. I keep trying to pull his head out of the rabbit hole with your tutorials and narratives and others that are on point. I just would like to thank you very much. Please keep them coming. I wish you and yours a Merry Christmas and a happy New Year. God bless you all 🕊️🕊️🕊️

[@rogerwilco2]

Have you checked out Beau of the Fifth Column as well?

[@RagsAIN-14]

@@rogerwilco2 No, I have not. Did not even know it was available? Would be too much for you to forward that to me? Anything to keep my son's head out of the rabbit hole is priceless

[@SamHeesen]

@@RagsAIN-14 This is Beau. www.youtube.com/@BeauoftheFifthColumn He's great because conservative audiences can identify with him because of his accent and the way he looks. He has lots of short videos on lots of topics, I'm sure there are some that you feel your son may be able to identify with. The most important antitdote to the 'rabbit hole' is community. The more time spent doing activities with good friends the less time spent on the internet worrying about things we can't change or watching TV sensationalizing events for ratings and political clout.

[@DC9848]

The less we western consumers use oil in our daily lives, the faster & better the outcome for global peace and end of OPEC mafia. I have already reduced our household's annual oil consumption by 3500 litres a year by changing to geothermal heating and further 2500 litres by changing to fully electric car. I travel long distance by train if possible and have used electric car sharing services when visiting European capital cities. Electric taxis are also easy to choose from apps like Uber when traveling. Also for many European countries with no domestic oil production, reducing oil consumption means more of your money stays in your home country and helps the local economy to survive.

[@FurrySpatula]

Thanks for the vids!

[@williamjohnson4188]

You forgot a huge problem Russia has, they don't possess the ability to shut off their oil wells. If they do shut them off, they cannot start them back.

[@cravingtuna1561]

​@@johnjackson8899most of their oil is in the East.

[@Tyronejizz]

​@@johnjackson8899because north south is really the dimension to think in when it comes to russia

[@Kodakcompactdisc]

Maybe Ukraine will help them shut them off.

[@Kodakcompactdisc]

Maybe Ukraine will help them shut them off.

[@aaronbaker2186]

​@@cravingtuna1561which is another problem for Russia. Their best customers right now are China and India. They have a pipeline to China but it doesn't have nearly the capacity of their pipelines to Europe (which have greatly reduced purchases). The oil is close to Europe but far from India and China, and Russian oil has to go past the gulf to get to them by sea.

[@chucksingh9339]

Excellent video! Loved the information, stayed for the alliteration

[@koendejongh9059]

Good luck with the books, you tell very sensible things. Sometimes a bit hard for my not so economicly inclined brain to understand but it helps me to train that side. Thanks for that.

[@totallynotthebio-lizard7631]

You are the only economic KZbinr I’ve seen acknowledge that the price hasn’t skyrocketed.

[@MusicIsLegal]

Hes not an economic KZbinr

[@totallynotthebio-lizard7631]

@@MusicIsLegal is he political?

[@thli8472]

I saw a KZbinr (Oracle Eyes) who's saying that there's trouble at the Kaliningrad border, and that the people want to break away from Russia. Is that true? How would that happen? A coup? Invite the poles?

[@melodymaker135]

Right, and broadening out from there…. Experts are always writing about the terrifyingly narrow gap (it has a name I can’t remember) between Kaliningrad and Belarus, and how it suggests huge problems supplying aid from Poland/NATO to the Baltics. But it looks to me on the map that it’s Kalingrad that would be squashed like a bug in case (God forbid) of war. I know there are a bunch of nukes there, but if Russia started something direct with the Baltics, seems like the good guys could symmetrically threaten Kaliningrad very convincingly, no?

[@melodymaker135]

Thanks for that insight Heitors. I’m sure you’re right that Russia wouldn’t let K go if they could help it. But seems like they’d at least be wary of starting something in the vicinity.

[@melodymaker135]

Funny how there’s no universal standard/statute of limitations on how long a people has to be on some territory before it’s viewed as “their” land. Examples too numerous and obvious to need naming

[@crowleythedemoncat]

@@melodymaker135 I believe the nukes in Kaliningrad were moved to Belarus

[@martindice5424]

Your presentations are always interesting and thought provoking sir.

[@keepmoving1185]

Your way with words! It keeps me laughing and watching! Keep rhyming and writing!!🎉🎉❤

[@benlamprecht6414]

Thanks for yet another excellent video

[@asan1050]

William Spaniel Thank you for posting.

[@Maffuman1]

14:03 looking forward to that video when it drops. Always enjoy your content- even or especially the granular geopolitical charts and graphs.

[@Doe174]

Awesome alliteration amigo!

[@FF-le3ps]

Venezuala: Allow me to introduce myself Edit: nvm

[@KARTAVYAPANDEY-ez8ri]

Some context please?

[@stephanweiskorn6760]

Excellent video 😊!

[@Khal_Rheg0]

Thank you!

[@Sophocles13]

@ 3:22 great alliteration my man!

[@michaelhenault1444]

Very useful and timely. I'd love to hear your take on what the impack of Big Oil absorbing fracking technology will be.

[@lexpox329]

As I understand it fracking is most economically done on basically only the USA shale deposits, others around the world are less productive with the technology, thus many of them are not being developed. So mostly fracking has had the effect of taking the USA out of the picture as a power player vulnerable to manipulation via oil. I could be misunderstanding you comment though.

[@lorax8172]

I really appreciate your sense of humor

[@benjaminhansen5023]

I was just listening to you - then navigated to another video briefly, only to run into this and come right back!

[@benjaminhansen5023]

7:02 The overwhelming P’s - love it!

[@benjaminhansen5023]

I just realized in the second run that this was the second machine-gun-fire of P’s, not the first

[@michaellouise6245]

Excellent alliteration William.

[@ozhaver4027]

One of your good ones 💯

[@nmaddpnmaddp7333]

now there are to many good electric car , bike you can buy , oil demand decreasing every day .

[@KatzeArtemis]

really nice editing. love the facial expressions

[@Dan-uo9fw]

Yes, never forget the 6x5 p's rule. Producers possibly perceiving prodigious petrol prices and preferring to pump peak profit potential.

[@NormanInAustralia]

Thanks!

[@Gametheory101]

Thank you!

[@homerkase]

5:43 love this photo!!!! totally can't recognize cheney and rumsfeld!!!

[@hulagu3068]

Crazy that Israel is the one place in the middle east without oil but is the richest state

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

It is always so that people with no natural recources have to learn fiscal responsiblity and how to add to the economy without raw recource extraction.

[@MrDastardly]

As a French politician recently commented, “that’s what happens when the American regime keeps a failed land on life support.” 🤷‍♂️

[@jakekn7304]

Not the richest Kuwait, Bahrain, uae, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are richer by a long shot

[@MrDastardly]

@@mozesmarcus461 François Hollande holds a different opinion. His opinion may be right or wrong. Nobody will ever know the answer. 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

[@MrDastardly]

@@jakekn7304 Yes but can people vote & choose the Government?

[@rheinhardtgrafvonthiesenha8185]

I love when he says “however”

[@staplez1055]

I completely agree with your prisoner's dilemma concept for the market cuts. My only issue is if you're going to use dollars to represent what Saudi Arabia would get, you should use Yuan for what Russia would get. Ain't nobody using Rubles for international trade. Not even Russians. That's why they keep pushing India to use Yuan or Dinar.

[@stischer47]

And the Indians have said they will not use either, especially the Yuan.

[@kreb7]

I cannot see India using a Chinese money and the Dinar is pegged against the dolar and it will make the sunctions harder to avoid

[@privatepadilla]

That's a sweet Head Rhyme you threw in at 7:00

[@mats8375]

Nice!

[@louisgiokas2206]

Donald Rumsfeld was both the youngest and oldest Secretary of Defense in US history.

[@Gametheory101]

That's a fun fact! Feels like a Final Jeopardy clue.

[@louisgiokas2206]

@@Gametheory101 It does, doesn't it. By the way, I read your first book on the war and have three of your Game Theory 101 books. I have started them but not yet completed them.

[@kellermaharrey9274]

Man was feelin the alliteration

[@krwada]

Professor Spaniel, If I could give this presentation a 10+ thumbs up, I definitely would! Politics, energy and global economies are intricately intertwined no?

[@ambition112]

0:56: 🛢 The 1973 oil embargo following the Yom Kippur War led to a spike in oil prices and global economic measures to reduce consumption. 3:21: 🌍 The video discusses the changing political dynamics in the Middle East and its impact on the global oil market. 6:29: 🛢 The video discusses the impact of OPEC decisions on global oil prices and the implications for the US and Canadian oil industries. 10:22: 🛢 The video discusses the dilemma faced by Russia and Saudi Arabia in deciding whether to cut oil production to maximize profits or to follow market forces. 12:55: 🛢 Russia's fluctuating oil production and its impact on international relations and profit motives. Recapped using Tammy AI

[@MrPoKe007]

It would a great case study to make a video about the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia

[@dylanrearick6227]

Alarming amounts of alliteration always alert my attention.

[@jamielonsdale3018]

Overwhelming oil obstruction of OPEC origin overrides original omninational order, only once. Secretly sourced shale supply solves serious shortage. Giddy global gas-group gains gladly grow gargantuan GDPs. Dumb domestic drivers duly double down daily, diesel driving drops dramatically.

[@twitter.comelomhycy]

Absolutely

[@uncommonneuron]

pleased by the pp video commentary

[@LewisPulsipher]

Excellent use and illustration of the Prisoners' Dilemma.

[@Alsadius]

Side note about your Rumsfeld comment - he was both the youngest and oldest Secretary of Defense ever, because of those two widely separated terms in the role.

[@xavariusquest4603]

I'm interested that you did not discuss oil as a traded commodity. Tracking commodity prices via futures contracts indicates why certain actions generate few shifts in the price while others have far more impact. I think your average viewer has little or no understanding of this dynamic and its role in the maintenance of the spot market. This interplay was one of the reasons Russia took a hiatus in production. They thought they could force futures contracts to spike looking out several months. It had no effect. Since that did not work...Putin is doubling down on interference by "convincing" the Saudis it's in their best interest to drop production as the West enters into a forecast tough winter. Funny though....a tough winter reduces vehicle use significantly. It increases heating but overall not enough to outpace savings from gasoline use reductions. As a point, oil sep 2024 futures are trading at 14 cents a barrel more than futures due next month. So, users can purchase their future demand now and lock in those contract prices... irrespective of geopolitics. But Putin needs to effect spot price and hope it lingers for long enough to alter those future contracts and then let them run through...it is a mid to long term effort he needs to rebuild his economy.

[@Swidsinski]

Thank you for your dry and at the same time funny delivery. Btw. loved the alteration at 7:03.

[@Mrinsecure]

Would've loved to be a headline writer at the time Richard Nixon tried to ban Christmas lights to save energy. "NAUGHTY NIXON NIXES SAINT NICK," or something like that.

[@RBzee112]

So a Republican is the only politician that actually tried to ban Christmas.

[@twitter.comelomhycy]

hahaha笑笑

[@phantomarbiter176]

Potential proprietary possibilities for prose in this production are positively “pushin’ p”

[@urboi6307]

What are the chances, i just finished your last video 👍🏿

[@kingace6186]

I did not expect to get jumpscared by younger version of Cheney and Rumsfeld.

[@talldude1412]

"Have hair" is also a real stretch of the term in their case

[@rheinhardtgrafvonthiesenha8185]

New William Spaniel video im All over it.

[@johnsullivan6843]

3:24 nice alliteration!! 🤣

[@louisgiokas2206]

Look at the shale cost situation more closely. First, through technology, the costs have come way down. Second, it only takes weeks to get a shale project online. Conventional sources take years.

[@danielcaccavelli5551]

I noted a jump in views average since the start of war related videos. But I prefer the old ones. They were about more controllable stuff.

[@dk6024]

Oh! The alliteration!

[@JinKee]

MBS said of Saudi Arabia "The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stone."

[@spanishSpaniard]

0:57 ¿Could you in future videos make more clear if price figures are inflation adjusted or not?

[@HKim0072]

It's dollar. It's barrel. Nothing has to adjust.

[@Daisy_3011]

Prices fell by about 10% since Gaza invasion in station near me.

[@chuckb8877]

Write a book on this conflict please

[@jackalchasingmoonbeams8483]

The alliterative p sounds kept pulling my attention back to the video.

[@F3udF1st]

@3:25 bringing some Tupac flair into it!

[@advancetotabletop5328]

Note that, in 1973, SA had a king sympathetic towards Palestine. Currently, the king is on his way out, with a prince who doesn’t care about Pal b/c of its lack of economic importance. SA is more concerned about Iran, as SA and Iran are both trying to control the ME. Also, USA did learn its lesson from the 1970’s, by increasing fuel conservation and domestic oil (and energy) production. Despite OPEC’s supply changes, OPEC still has to make sure their price increases are not so high that their buyers permanently switch to other fuels or conservation measures. As much as we hear about China’s EV production and coal consumption, I’d like to see it in context of ME and world oil prices. Thanks for the video!

[@sebastiansandvik825]

Interesting video. When it comes to the game theory aspects, those hold under current conditions, but over time it becomes much more complicated. Expectations of future games are negative, as global oil demand is projected to peak in 5-10 years. With the decline that follows, prices will fall as well, which in turn will make it even more attractive to "cheat". All parties thus have reasons to expect a high risk of cheating both in the long and the short term, making any deals incredibly fragile. Add to that the fact that current global prices, interest rates and industry demand means that a lot of oil exporters are under fairly high budget pressures. Not an easy environment for a cartel.. and the more they push, the worse it will be for them in the long run.

[@shurqeh]

Isn't there still a price cap on Russian Oil? Not that they cannot get around it but diminishing returns would kick in hard

[@rwkh10]

Another very informative video and I always watch them. What I don't understand why all the people I follow that might not be acceptable to KZbin keep deleting my subscription. Please tell me people is it just me ?

[@thomasbrown5738]

Excellent analysis, as usual. The United States may muck up the market also. stay tuned. Most people don't realize that the "Price at the pump" is dependent on how the Refineries are doing. If a couple of them go off line for some reason, the wholesale/retail prices will go up. Big oil has been resistant to building New Refineries for a long time. They like the bottle neck.

[@carylhalfwassen8555]

No permission has been given by feds to build refinery capacity since the 1970’s or early 1980’s.

[@rich1051414]

There are typically 2 separate peak profit margins when it comes to regulating supply. A low supply peak profit and a high supply peak profit. Keeping supply low has always been about maximizing political power, not about maximizing profit.

[@matthewhuszarik4173]

If you look at the official EIA numbers the US has been a net oil exporter for a while, over a million barrels a day in 2022.

[@dogcarman]

7:04 The AI has evolved alliteration. Neat.

[@loduke3905]

America's increased output is what's keeping prices down. Which is why he flew to see the Saudi's, Russia is flooding the market and not keeping its agreement with OPEC because it needs the money. IF the saudi's want to try and stabilize and increase prices, they can flood the market for 6 months to a year. It'll hurt us production and then they can continue their oil cartel. It will decimate Russia as it costs them way too much to just extract it. Then they have to offer a discount and then pay for tankers. They're making 5-10 bucks a barrel and they're flooding the market with their cheap oil and gas. So Putin is pretty f'd, the Saudi's are pissed that they're not making 80-100 a barrel and the U.S. is now pumping out in record numbers while stating they can make a profit at $60

[@annehersey9895]

Don’t forget, Russia’s track record when it comes to keeping its word is abysmal at best!

[@danielcortez2499]

7:05 "Producers, possibly perceiving prodigious petrol prices & preferring to pump peak profit potential...: That's some top tier P for Pendetta type shit right there 🤣

[@scorpion19142001]

I find it Funny! Gentlemen agreement with What maybe back stapping?

[@ThomasHaberkorn]

let's imagine that there is a way to avoid oil products for energy and transportation alltogether

[@zacharyrobertson6944]

Astounding alliteration amigo.

[@vhostovich]

How did you not mention the oil embargo of Russia and the dark fleet bypassing that embargo ?

[@TacoSuprize]

Weird though. Gas has gone up are 10 cents where I live.

[@annehersey9895]

In California during the ‘73 oil embargo you were only allowed to buy gas on odd or even days depending on the last digit of your licenses plate with no gas sold on Sundays except at a few independent stations . People who were exempt were Doctors and others needed for work in emergencies! Y😢were so right,the number an😢brands of Japanese and other small foreign dealers sky-rocketed! Gone from America were the gas guzzler V-8, land yachts that got 15 miles t😢the gallon etc!

[@gzoechi]

Might rather be a desperation issue that a patience issue

[@yevgeni10]

Now it's 68$ for barrel.

[@petersouthernboy6327]

I just paid $2.43 per gallon in the Southern US.

[@larsrons7937]

7:03 😂 Producers possibly perceiving prodigious petrol prices and preferring to pump peak profit potential

[@qewqeqeqwew3977]

It most definitely did now. 1.80+ Euro per litter.

[@joescary7847]

Oh! Boy!

[@napoleonibonaparte7198]

And the rest of the world isn't doing enough to ween themselves off of oil, which could stop this cartel dynamic.

[@hitchensghost]

I think that Russia promised to cut back on oil production because it was losing that production capacity anyway as the pipelines froze up . sanctions are reducing the maintenance capacity in russia, and inevitably will take production offline. If they have broken promises, maybe their capacity hasn't failed enough yet. When they do meet opec commitments, expect russia to be very loud about everyone else reducing production.