The Truth about Oil Wars and the Venezuela-Guyana Crisis

[@p00bix]

"[Insert War Here] is all about oil" might be the most tired and cynical trope in all geopolitics discussion. Really appreciate this nuanced analysis into the actual relationship between oil and warfare.

[@p00bix]

It's especially amusing to me when people cite 'oil' as the cause of conflicts that objectively don't involve oil. Afghanistan doesn't have known oil deposits. Neither does Lebanon (though it is strongly suspected of having undiscovered deposits), and Israeli oil deposits weren't discovered until 2015. But not only were all three of those countries were sites of some of the largest and best known conflicts of the late 20th and early 21st centuries, "oil" comes up in discussion of them constantly.

[@zhcultivator]

very true

[@ryanelliott71698]

Let’s not forget the Iraq war where even though the US at the time wasn’t reliant on Iraqi oil, we still hear talking points about it… even though Iraq post war sold said oil to china. Funny how people forget that part

[@jackthorton10]

Yeah… China… would ring a lot of bells these days and make many people face palm at their belief in such a idea

[@Zz_Mike-Hawk_zZ]

Ww2 was the first war based on oil.

[@andreironcea8088]

I have been watching Mr. Spaniel’s videos for a while now and I must say: He is my favourite geo-politics commentator. His takes always offer useful insight that I am not able to find anywhere else, and moreover the way he delivers his message also improved considerably with time, with his witty addition of good quality humour every now and then. Whenever he uploads I get an instant dopamine rush. I truly hope he will continue making this sort of videos for a long time to come! Cheers William! :)

[@GetFochD]

Hahahahahahahahagagaga

[@GetFochD]

This channel is the shallowest geopolitics channel. It's country ball level. But he repeats propaganda you agree with. Also why did William change his pf? 😂

[@tocreatee5736]

😂😂😂😂😂

[@TheHavnmonkey]

Venezuela is currently exporting less than 1/3 of the petroleum products of it's historical high. When I first heard this news, I questioned the motivation.... Venezuela's petroleum industry is operating well under its capacity and it's infrastructure has declined so much that it could not handle any more oil or gas production. So my assumption is: this revived conflict has got to be more about disruption of Guyana's petroleum production potential and/or some sort of way to boost Maduro's internal popularity. Just like one of Putin's motivations for the Ukrainian invasion was to prevent them from developing recently discovered natural gas deposits that could cut into Russia's marketshare.

[@QuadZillaGodZillasbrother]

I guess their logic is, you can never have too much of a good thing

[@M.Mae.M]

Venezula's oil is heavily sanctioned which is why production has slowed.

[@eldestramoyero8883]

I sincerely believe that if you increase your intelligence by one millimeter, you become a Mongolian. Before giving your opinion about Venezuela and its political regime, the first thing you have to do is research its history and where the claim for the Essequibo comes from and stop saying stupid things. Stop acting ridiculous with your out-of-context and unrealistic opinions and start selling toilet paper, which I think would be better for you.

[@uku4171]

You are using "its" and "it's" seemingly interchangeably. "It's" is short for "It is". "Its" is possessive.

[@davidbarts6144]

Another issue is how much authoritarianism is interfering with honesty in Venezuela. Authoritarian leaders tend to become surrounded by yes-men, because there can be consequences for saying inconvenient truths. Maduro may, in other words, incorrectly perceive the cost of war to be unrealistically cheap.

[@oso1165]

So true. Prob why putin thought he could take Ukraine in a weekend

[@MrJdsenior]

That is an extremely good point. Either Putin is the dumbest SOB that ever walked the planet, or he is receiving horribly inaccurate info, because little happens in Russia without his go/no go that he has information about, as the Russian military responses in the war in Ukraine have often been almost laughable in their incompetence. Russia should have obliterated Ukraine, in single digit weeks, yet here we are, almost two years later, with Russia losing FAR more land than they have gained since partway into the first year, and it sure as hell isn't because the world has been supporting Ukraine at the level it should be. On paper, Russia is, or was, just about 10X as powerful, though that fraction has been slowly tending toward, but not yet still remotely near, 1:1. My guess is more like three or four to one, now, with Russian losses, and offset Ukrainian losses, resulting in actual gains in some weapons classes. As a bit of an aside, but still relevant, I found it interesting that POOTie just nixed the anti war stance proposed candidate the ability to run, because it tells me that he is afraid of allowing an opponent with even a 20-30% anti-war support base in. I give that spec judging from what I've seen in current polling interviews conducted by channels like YT's '1420' (interesting if you want to see what the Russian on the street currently thinks). In every video they conduct, you see about that level of support, 70-80%, but the interviewees have also stated, several times, that there were and are never any viable alternative (save the one puppet after the previous term limit barrier a ways back, no longer an issue), so they are aware of what is happening in that respect. He does the interviews in Moscow, some rural areas, some other major cities, like St Petersburg, and even a couple of videos of them from Belarus, previously. His responses, facial expressions or follow on questions to some of the more Russian PropTV sorts of responses are classics, too. It is so difficult to dig down to any real grasp of anything, anymore, there is so much nonsensical BS flying around. This guy did a pretty good job in this video.

[@taylorkitchens578]

This sounds very familiar 🤔

[@ctg4818]

Like how Putin was going to conquer Ukraine in "two weeks"

[@kingace6186]

Like Putin was at the start of his invasion.

[@thornshar]

As an alternative explanation: Venezuela is causing trouble, in a way which gives the West something else besides Ukraine to worry about, for the same reason Hamas/Iran are: Russia asked them to. Presumably, Russia is giving them some cash for doing so, or something they like as well as cash. They may also be worried about what a Russian collapse (and the resultant spike in American relative power, and thus freedom of action) would do to their own position. But more likely, Putin asked Iran, Maduro, and everyone else who is a friend at all, to cause trouble (or threaten to) in a way which will distract the West.

[@arkvsi8142]

Are you a brain-dead no Healthcare war-profitter? (A "person" from united states?)

[@jackthorton10]

Let’s see how that’s gonna work out for him come next year

[@badluck5647]

Or maybe not everything is about the US or Russia?

[@horstnietzsche1923]

Seems like an unnecessary stretch but who knows.

[@occamraiser]

Lol, while Iran will do whatever it can to undermine Saudi Arabia - which is the reason for the Hamas attack - your quaint little idea that russia will lose and America will be strengthened is rather cute. Imagine someone thinking that leaving your allies to die while your fascist MAGA congress supports the Kremlin and hopes for another round of FSB help in the next election will make America magically stronger :) America's allies are currently looking for different solutions to their problems as America is showing itself to be the least reliable ally since Italy in WW II.

[@jorgecaballerocastillo2435]

I am satisfied with the amount of lines, maps, and lines on map; as well, the presence of the outro this time. What I missed was the games from before.

[@GuerillaGearGames]

Dont forget Venezuala has like over 300 million oil barrels that could be potentially used, it just is really crude, so its hard to process. Real life lore did a video particularly explaining this, and how the US/UK would get involved since majority of 80+% of the investments come from American Oil, and European Oil conpanies.

[@lovinsubs]

Aren't a large portion or even a majority of Venezuela's oil reserves in the form of bitumen? Removing the earth matter from the crude is a difficult and costly procedure in and of itself, so its been boggling to me that they would risk foreign investment, machinery, and knowledge on how to extract the oil from the chaff since having huge reserves of oil seems fairly pointless if you don't have a good way of pulling it out of the ground, making it into a state ready to be refined, and then having a shipping infrastructure to get it where it needs to go (domestically or internationally) all of which seem to be ailing in Venezuela.

[@GuerillaGearGames]

@lovinsubs Well thats why they purchased Chevron, because its one of the only companies that heabily invest in large crude-oil filtration refineries. Also, the reason they want the oil in Guyana, cause its nearly PURE (87.9% Pure) oil. That way, they can instead of send their crude to the American (sanctioned by the US government until recently) Chevron companies, can use the off coast reserves (They would get the two largest) in Guyana and make way more that way. So war is in fact likely, but it could be a rouse. But Argentina did it with land, particularly the Falklands, which is why this is so worrisome. Its worrisome because 90% of investments in this oil comes from the US/UK. Meaning, he could be tryna pull a fast resource grab, and this could be a Gulf war in our own backyard.

[@Gwanzan3325]

Yeah, Venezuela already has vast oil reserves and a petrochemical industry the Chavezes have let go to pot, so people saying this dispute is about oil has never made any sense to me. Clearly, this mess is about regime preservation, just like Ukraine.

[@lovinsubs]

@@GuerillaGearGames was it chevron or Citgo? Or is there a difference, I admittedly get a bit lost in the wide world of petrochemical players haha

[@Tinil0]

@@GuerillaGearGames Did you not even watch the video?

[@mattbowdenuh]

It's not even practical for Venezuela to undertake any military operations in the area. It's the rainforest/jungle with almost no infrastructure. Even the infrastructure on the Venezuelan side is pretty sparse. Speaking of lines on maps, roads are lines on maps, and the only one goes through Brazil, which has sent a clear message by stationing their troops near the border at said road crossing. This is your typical "rally round the flag" before the upcoming election for domestic concerns. Even if Venezuela only harasses the offshore oil rigs with their navy, those offshore commercial oil interests are both American and Chinese. If the Venezuelan Navy starts to do that, they'll be respectfully asked to cease and desist. And if it's one thing Americans take seriously, it's our boats. Don't touch em. Really, don't touch American boats. In other words, there's no logical reason for this to turn into a conflict.

[@Jartran72]

Yeah true you americans have no chill about your boats.

[@boarfaceswinejaw4516]

the problem with the "its illogical" approach to the topic is that it assumes Maduro and his administration percieves reality the same way we do.

[@casbot71]

The US Navy could just park a carrier fleet offshore for a while as a _"subtle"_ warning..

[@alex_zetsu]

Don't worry Venezuela won't harass oil rigs because that would start a fight they can't win. I mean no one ever starts wars they will lose right? How can anyone be that stupid?

[@soupycask]

I would normally agree, but America is under pretty weak leadership. This whole gambit on easing sanctions in exchange for free and fair elections is laughable, does anyone really think Mr. Maduro is just going to let go of power so easily? I sure don’t, and he clearly has indicated by disqualifying his most threatening opponent that he in fact won’t. My point is that, the current administration is too naive and idealistic on the Venezuelan issue, and will likely refrain from intervening out of fear that doing so will tarnish their “deal” or whatever. If Venezuela wanted to, it could harass Guyanese oil operations all it wants, even invade (however unlikely) if they wanted to, and nothing would really happen, besides soft condemnations from the UN and the free world. This is my understanding anyway, i’m not a geopolitical expert at all, so if i am missing something, feel free to correct me.

[@markaxworthy2508]

Oil is often sold multiple times to higher bidders by brokers while still at sea. I know of one case where a cargo changed ownership six times. As a result, for example, the US had no need to attack Iraq for oil because it could just buy it at sea after it had reached international waters.

[@EdT.-xt6yv]

A video about this is a must, ☮️

[@youtoobfarmer]

It wasn't about access to oil, but about control, and ensuring that the profits of oil flowed into the right pockets (namely, US energy corporations).

[@JayneCobbsBunk]

​@@youtoobfarmer Except no US oil companies have ever won a bid to run Iraqi oil fields.

[@Bleilock1]

​@@JayneCobbsBunkthats why they lobbied for the war

[@Tinil0]

@@Bleilock1 He's talking about after the Iraq war. People still claiming the Iraq war was about oil are just profoundly ignorant on geopolitics.

[@OneOfThePetes]

Sounds like you got / recently had the lurgy too! Wishing you a speedy recovery! Love your content, thank you so much!

[@davidknapp5403]

The only pod cast to intelligently include the resources motive to invasion. Refreshing, brilliant, to the point.

[@apuntes8883]

People also say that it is the British who want an actual material territory on their own in South America. Both potential conflicts Guyana and the Falkland/Malvinas are directly related to the British interest in the region.

[@TheCleric42]

The Times On Maps at 7:25 is truly insightful

[@ToxicNets]

Another great video. I think Russia is baiting the hook behind this controversy as well. Probably not a stretch to assume he needs to stretch us thin on cash now, followed by thinning us more militarily as this southern conflict progresses... I enjoyed the new article you wrote. Thanks again. 😎

[@EdT.-xt6yv]

A video about this is a must ☮️

[@jackthorton10]

I have a similar notion to this as well, it seems suspicious

[@marvinegreen]

3rd and most objectively rational video I've seen on this subject.

[@NSA-admin]

KZbin autoplayed a bunch of your videos for me at work and i found it very informative. Really like your coverage of events. No matter how depressing the subject matter is, its good to be informed.

[@Special_K_42069]

Our favorite academic / content creator is back at it! I look forward to your no nonsense analyses of modern conflicts. The world is a strange place. EDIT: Shout out lines on maps and 9:48 Hugo Chavez the Board Game 😂

[@jeff_thailand]

I stopped to read the “TIMES ON MAPS” articles (at 7:23 mark) and I laughed so hard! Thank you! (I will now pause every video you make to read these little Easter eggs Of humour!)

[@jhrtelem]

Where are those numbers coming from? Corina Machado is hated in Venezuela, she has even lower numbers than Maduro. That's the main reason the oposition doesn't win, because Maduro sure has near 30% only, but Guaido o Corina doesn't reach 20. The reason they are being proactive now, is because now is when Guyana is starting to sploit those oil and mineral reserves. But they have always said Esequibo is theirs.

[@quasinfinity]

Guyana should hold a similar referendum on annexing the Guayanan Highlands (about half of Venezuela). Turn about seems fair play.

[@pooransingh1882]

A very interesting and exceptional analysis of situations involving international disputes and conflicts.

[@v0kk3r12]

Hello. I am a Venezuelan and would like to share some additional information + some personal views on this issue. The Esequibo issue has been going on for more than a century, and like you said, is not only oil at play here, there is the 2024 elections, the historical land claim and the natives who share ties with the Caribe heritage. I woudl like to add to this, in Venezuelan schools for the past 20 years at least, we are taught from an early age that the Esequibo belongs to Venezuela and the map has always shown the Esequibo as a "Zone in reclamation" So the issue was not dropped under president Hugo Chavez. As for Machado, it is unlikely she'll win, I myself am an Opposition supporter, but Machado feels just like another Juan Guaido (Who as of two days ago is under investigation by the FBI for alledged money laundering) Most opposition supporting people I know share the same feeling too, after all, 2017 and 2019 happened thanks to the opposition's failures. Suriname, a country East of Guyana has been historically claiming the part of Guyana not claimed by Venezuela, an unlikely alliance could come from this. Now, about the referendum gathering 10 million votes is completely manipulated information from the Venezuelan gov, the actual numbers are expected to be ~2 million according to political analysts. Of this 2 million most are coherced votes from people working goverment jobs under threat of being fired, others are enchufados and the rest are lilkely the people who depend on the CLAP food bags and goverment bonuses for their continued survival. No one I know even showed up to the referendum even if they supported taking the Esequibo as they disliked Maduro or thought that the issue shouldn't be asked in a referendum. It is also unlikely Venezuela would go to actual war, while we have a decent ground forces we have shit tier navy and air forces, making our troops arrival only plausible thru the ground, this can only be done thru a thick jungle as the only road (or anything not jungle) is currently fortified by Brazil to not allow us passage, the US has also been conducting air force exercises over Guyana and Britain recently sent a few patrol boats to the Guyanese waters. The only way we could realisitcally wage war would be by using the Bolivarian militias and paramilitary forces, which are huge in numbers and experience against actual military forces way better equipped than our own, however we would need the support of Iran or Russia (or Wagner) to actually carry out operations. The most likley scenario is that Maduro will soon announce martial law instead of going to war.

[@jackthorton10]

Thank you for the information and update, have a pleasant day and a happy new year, courtesy from United States 🇺🇸

[@TheHavnmonkey]

As a Venezuelan maybe you could comment on my assumption about the situation. Maduro is using longstanding territorial identity to drum up support for himself AND to possibly disrupt Guyana from developing the oil and gas. If Guyana was able to sell it on the world market it would limit Maduro's ability to sell Venezuela's oil and gas.

[@v0kk3r12]

@@TheHavnmonkey Maduro stirring support for himself is highly unlikely, and if that was the case the additional support it could pull up would be minimal as non-chavista venezuelans really dislike him because of the whole unlivable conditions part. Only way he could use it to gather support in any significant ammount would be to actually follow throught and declare war on Guyana instead of only throwing threats which could net votes from the more reactionary and nationalist individuals. As for him trying to disrup Guyana's oil industry I have no idea to be honest, but it doesn't sound too crazy considering we only got sanctions lifted due to the US seeking to lower global oil prices to fuck the financing of Russia's conflict with Ukraine. Someone else offering lighter and cheaper oil could allow the US to raise the sanctions once again on us.

[@v0kk3r12]

@@jackthorton10 Cheers hermano, happy new years an merry christmas

[@kingace6186]

Thanks for adding this to the discussion. Happy holidays.

[@stischer47]

Having lived in Essequibo 2013-2016 as the oil discoveries were being made, most people outside Guyana don't realize that 90 percent of its approximately 800,000 inhabitants live on the narrow coastal plain, representing only 10 percent of the country's area. In Essequibo (Region 2) there is ONE two-lane paved road running along the coast leading from Charity in the west closest to Venezuela to Supenaam in the east. There is NO road running through Region 1 that is next to Venezuela from Charity to Venezuela, it is jungle. The area is reached only by boat or plane. Guyana, especially Essequibo is almost impenetrable jungle. As mentioned by others, the only road leading from Venezuela to Guyana is in the far south and runs through Brazil...which is not about to allow the Venezuelan Army to use the road to attack Guyana. ExxonMobil Guyana is the first and largest oil producer in Guyana. Does anyone think that they are going to sit by and let anything happen? The "Negotiation" or "Bargain" in this situation is for Venezuela to stay on its side of the border.

[@ajaxlupis]

William--I love your videos. They are a great analysis of current events.

[@ChairmanMeow1]

Stuff like this is gonna happen more and more as countries view the US as distracted/weak.

[@Adam-326]

That’s why we needed a global police…

[@IronWarrior86]

US don't need to fight other peoples' wars. Bring home the troops and invest in Americans, infrastructure, education, and create free healthcare.

[@Adam-326]

@@IronWarrior86 LMAO, dude, they could easily do both. They just don’t want to spend money on that other stuff.

[@IronWarrior86]

@@Adam-326 No we can't easily do both. I don't know what utopia you're living in. Jeez.

[@mrxmry957]

@@Adam-326 A foreigner telling us what we should and shouldn't do. Nice joke! We need to secure our border and a whole laundry list to go through before thinking about waging war

[@awesomehpt8938]

Well in Mad Max and fallout oil explains wars very well apparently.

[@zer0her058]

Not even fallout. No reason to fight over oil when you have access to fusion reactor in your hand. The Sino-American war from fallout was triggered by america gate keeping advanced technology(like the brotherhood)and initiating a global nuclear and biological arms race. Tim Caine the creator of the franchise said in an interview earlier this year that china launched first because they thought the reports of americas power armor soldiers in the counter invasion were chinese exposed to FEV.

[@lightfeather9953]

Not really. It's easy to tell a story, especially when the details of the past are lost to a simple narrative.

[@sirsplintfastthepungent1373]

Whenever you quote Jim Henson's Dinosaurs, the theme song reflexively plays in my head while you continue speaking.

[@echo_9835]

The Times on Maps newspaper seems to be somewhere between the Onion, Weekly World News, and AP.

[@ares106]

I think most wars are a failure to negotiate but not all wars. For example in ideological total wars where one or both parties want to virtually annihilate the other, there is not much room for negotiation. You can’t really negotiate away your existence.

[@urgaynknowit]

These videos are so good, keep up the great work bud

[@General12th]

Hi William! I consider watching this channel as an opportunity to plunder the petrowealth that is geopolitical analysis.

[@kingace6186]

Thanks for this video. I was curious about this conflict and how it may unfold. Yet, it would only be mentioned in passing by traditional media houses.

[@FurrySpatula]

First! And Merry Christmas William, thank you for the great content

[@broughttofruition7377]

Damn you! You beat me to it lol!

[@Gametheory101]

Certified first, and thank you!

[@ohishwaddup]

Damn bro he certified you as first. I don't think I have seen that before in yt comments, he should put you as an Easter egg in his next video like he was doing for Putin.

[@gabrielrodriguez821]

Rig elections, spend all the country's oil money on your friends and family, try to avoid getting cancer: Hugo Chavez the board game.

[@martinhartecfc]

I had a chuckle at your newspaper and absolutely buckled at "Hugo Chavez, the board game!" 😂

[@klyanadkmorr]

You didn't bring the fact BRAZIL is a power in S. Am and a next door neighbor to both conflicting nations. They have brought troops into their region right south of Guyana as a means to help if asked and Ven. tried rolling into the jungles of west Guyana and also try transgressing in Brazilian lands too. maybe you brought that up in another vid?

[@Klaudiuszeg]

Venezuela already has largest deposits of oil, are they co incompetent that they need infrastructure and industry of other country to actually produce it? I think so

[@oso1165]

Yup 100%

[@offchance789]

A company is great because they are profit motivated: more product, more dollars. State owned companies, on the other hand, are missing that profit incentive: if they pump less oil, the state is still going to be there, nothing changes. So now you're basically only working to keep the machinery turned on and looking good for inspections. Efficiency for more profit is the last thing you care about because no one else cares, and if the scary government guys with guns come down to bother you to work harder, you'll work just hard enough to make the guys with guns go away for one more day.

[@Hrafnskald]

They are. Real Life Lore put out an indepth video on all the economic mismanagement. Short version: they replaced skilled oil engineers with party loyalists, and their production numbers tanked. Putting politics over sound business practices always leads to lower production. See: Zimbabwe, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Russia, etc.

[@lovinsubs]

It's hard to boil it down to sheer ignorance or incompetence, although that plays a role. A large part of Venezuela's oil reserves are in a form called bitumen, where it is mixed in with the sediment and other earth matter around where it is pulled from. Bitumen requires costly and more complicated processes to separate the oil from the earth content to make it viable as crude, and the outflow of foreign investment in their industry and the flight of foreign industry knowledge has arguably had the greatest effects on Venezuela's oil export industry. Creating new processes and machinery to run those processes to replace everything lost in the exodus of foreign investment can be a slow and painful process in the best of conditions, but with the severe state of Venezuelan budget deficit matched with the unholy inflationary rates, it would seem to be miraculous if the industry could homegrow its own replacements anytime soon.

[@arnold3768]

Guyana's oil is of higher quality and much easier to process than the one at Ven...

[@FF-le3ps]

6:10 you also forgot the Saudi and Iraq neutral zone that existed until the 1980s. This technically made the Saudi, Iraqi, Kuwait and Neutral Zone border into a quadpoint

[@brianhillier7052]

soo cool you used a 100 star note!!! anyone else catch this?

[@NotDrDre]

“Bars on doll-ars” made me laugh out loud

[@SwordQuake2]

6:45 second KZbinr to mention that border today.

[@Hrafnskald]

The parallel that is closest is the Falklands War, when an unpopular dictatorship picked a fight over a British territory in South America, and tried to seize an English speaking area where they had a treaty dispute. Just like this. Oh look, the UK just sent a warship to hang out in Guyana. I wonder what kind of exercises they will engage in. Given the only major road from Venezuela into the Essequibo runs through Brazil, which is increasing its border defenses to block any land invasion, this could get interesting.

[@BagoasAnushParsaRad]

La diferiencia es que las Islas Malvinas son colonias habitadas por colonos británicos blancos, mientras que Guyana ya no es una colonia británica, su población mayormente es afrodescendiente, e india, son musulmanes en una gran medida, U.K en 1982 pasaba una crisis económica, pero no se compara a las crisis que ahora U.K se anda enfrentando, U.K se está desintegrando, cada vez es más débil, desde el Brexit salió por la culata, Escocia, Gales quieren independencia, Irlanda reunificarse con una Irlanda del Norte menos protestante, ahora anda polarizados políticamente internamente, están aislados comercialmente de europa, si tiene esperanza que la commonwealth haga algo no pasará, no es una alianza militar obligada como la OTAN, ahora la máxima prioridad es Ucrania e Israel, no Guyana que es independiente desde 1966, Guyana perdió.

[@lovinsubs]

​@@BagoasAnushParsaRadI wish I could reply in your language, but unfortunately I am not that skilled in languages. While Guyana is no longer an official british colony, it joined the commonwealth of nations 4 years after in 1970, giving it a similar status to Australia, Canada, or New Zealand. That does not by any means guarantee military intervention, but is more significant than the total break in international relations between Guyana and Britain in 66' that it seemed your comment was indicating. Beyond this, the US, China, and France, among other nations, already have vested interests in the Guyanan off-shore fields as they secure leases through Guyana to extract and have had half a decade already to flow money into guyana to beef up its infrastructure to meet extraction and export demands. It is one of the only places in the world where Chinese and American interests align enough to play nicely and not rock the boat, and I find there to be little to no guarantee that they would let a different nation rock that boat for them. Especially when that nation has a track record of more heavy handed nationalization policies that rob foreign national firms of their assets and investments, while micromanaging that nationalized industry into ever greater extraction deficits. Guyana has lost if every world power involved decides to abandon their claims, which I can't recall happening before in the long roll of human history.

[@BagoasAnushParsaRad]

@@lovinsubs Para eso está google translate, digo youtube permite traducir comentarios, pensaba que esta función igual la tenían aquí, es comprensible. A China y Rusia le beneficia que Venezuela tenga el Esequibo porque solo les vendería a ellos, y no a todos como lo hace Guyana, esto disminuye la disponibilidad de petroleo para U.S y U.K, y beneficia a Rusia-China y más cuando Venezuela quiere ingresar a las BRICS.

[@BagoasAnushParsaRad]

@@lovinsubs El reclamo del Esequibo sigue vigente desde 1966.

[@dekkeroid2962]

it was a very informative video. Thanks a lot

[@Tinil0]

Man, people's ignorant (And yet simultaneously deeply held) beliefs about the primacy of oil in the motivations of conflicts in recent history has been a HUGE frustration of mine. It's like people's minds NEED there to be a simple answer with easy bad guys and good guys so they can handle the world. I'm glad you said something. Geopolitics, like history, just suffers so heavily from reductivist explanations because people take completely wrong lessons and cling to them like drowning rats. You will still see certain people who somehow still think the Iraq war was about oil and also react extremely strongly to all evidence otherwise. Baffling.

[@felipequaresma4215]

i liked the video however i feel its important to say the thing with venezuela and guyana isnt something new made up by maduro, is actually a old dispute that involves more about venezuelan nationalism than just something of the goverment and opposition, i mean even machado the opposition leader defended at one point that essequibo was venezuela's

[@jermainesingh]

Thats correct even before we found oil i say if we do we will have to first develop our military

[@guyanasun4361]

Taking the territory not "retaking" as Venezuela never occupied the Essequibo. They're making claims based on preexisting nations Spain and Grand Columbia which don't exist anymore. None of those nations occupied the territory of Essequibo since the 1700's. It was land controlled by the Dutch and English.

[@cyberfutur5000]

Isn't it fascinating (and a bit scary) that you can explain the basics of global politics with a three word quote from a thirty year old sitcom starring dinosaur puppets? Also if it was all about oil, we wouldn't have to deal with Putin right now. Russia would be known as west Alaska and all'd be good.

[@M.Mae.M]

I was under the aasumption that Venezula has a ton of untapped oil, however due to sanctions it can't be sold. I think this war is about showing strength and power which will get their population behind Maduro.

[@Danzo1212]

Only thing that will happen is a reality check We rits just sent a Ship Guyana is a commonwealth country so wont end well for Venezuela

[@SaintZ42]

The one thing I don't understand about these oil disputes between VERY close neighbouring countries is how small are these oil fields size wise? If the oil field is one great mass and covers both countries what is to stop one Venezuela from literally "drinking their milkshake"

[@ansoncall6497]

William Spaniel > Peter Zeihan. Seriously, though, very interesting and informative.

[@chronus4421]

Thanks for covering this topic!

[@ankilon3]

Would you be willing to do a video on why you thought the Iraq war happened, if not for oil access? Would be most interested to hear your thoughts

[@TheAserghui]

I am happy to have my memories vindicated that "Operation OIL" existed.

[@DisFantasy]

Even if a country doesn't need oil, denying access to others might be desired. Consider how many countries on the planet are energy independent with room to grow. What countries could be energy independent, but choose not to be so as to grant good faith leverage to a trading partner?

[@RedKytten]

Someone else who remembers the old Dinosaurs show, apparently. That W.A.R. joke sticks in my head eternally because of that show.

[@michaeldeyo9353]

Hey Billy! Keep the lines coming. QUIck note: essequibo, is not "esay-kwibo" like queso isn't "kway-sow". Thank you for your time.

[@adamcuneo7189]

What should be concerning for us Americans, is the close relationship between Venezuela and Iran, according to Israeli intelligence in 2022, Iran is currently planning on building a naval base in Venezuela. In 2023, the Iranian Navy has established a presence in the Panama Canal for the first time ever, which is in our own hemisphere. It's very odd how that's not widely discussed.

[@danielhale1]

Maybe the media should watch your videos. It's past time they learned the nuances they've been ignoring all this time. :D Or they could switch to Chat-GPT-written headlines and articles, since that's about the level of quality many of them have been approaching for a decade now.

[@scottgleeson4905]

It is nice to hear someone make the case against the facile trope that this or that war was motivated by oil. Half of the time, the people saying have no idea how exactly a military power in a war would seek to "steal the oil." I'm reminded of when my granny had dementia and she started to think that everyone who came into her room was, as she elegantly put "steal my shit!" We always had to explain to explain to her, "No. So-and-so is there for a different reason."

[@occamraiser]

Venezuela is doing a 'Gaultieri' and trying to whip up a problem to create a conflict behind which they can rally their currently disaffected people.

[@PeruvianPotato]

*Galtieri, not the Sopranos character

[@isaacteo4063]

The USA is a big country but then they decided, "what if I use my own oil?"

[@BuddhaJube]

Imagine removing the opposition front runner from the ballot. What a threat to democracy a government like that would be.

[@MsElViktor]

9:57 - The face you make when you discover your Christmas gitf is not the toy you wanted

[@phx4closureman]

4:12 *O.I.L. ... GOOD ONE!!!!! I never caught that in March 2003!!!*

[@verySharkey]

Oil does not explain wars. It incentivizes them.

[@TheCrazyCapMaster]

An important thing to consider is both the circumstances of the country, and the mentality of a mid-sized authoritarian state like what Maduro has been running; I’m not talking about insanity or anything, but simply the fact that having so many “yes-men” around the leader (a problem that’s been mentioned on here before in relation to Putin, and has also been brought up in someone else’s comment here), would tend to lead to a situation where the leader expects to get what they want. They’re not fools, obviously Maduro would never try to take Venezuela to war against the US or whatnot; but in his own neighborhood, dealing with countries smaller than his own, especially when his nation desperately needs resources? There’s a very strong motivation for him to take everything he can, and a lack of inhibitions and/or resistance from his advisors. In a sense, Venezuela NEEDS that oil, and so it’s quite possible that Maduro doesn’t really care too much about the cost of getting it because of the potential cost of NOT getting it.

[@TheHavnmonkey]

Well, Venezuela doesn't NEED Guyana's oil/gas.... what Venezuela (Maduro's regeime) needs is for Guyana not to be able to develop, produce, and export their own oil/gas. IMO this is mostly a tactic to prevent Guyana from becoming a petro competitor.

[@BagoasAnushParsaRad]

Es para prevenir bases militares de U.S y U.K que se establezcan en el Esequibo, a parte que no es por recursos sino por nacionalismo.

[@MileeSimmon-db8ub]

Great video

[@curiouscreation55]

I came for the lines on maps AND THE BARS ON DOL-LARS

[@ctg4818]

Be really cool to see what happens when the oil runs dry.

[@roldanduarteholguin7102]

Export the Q*, Chat GPT, Revit, Plant 3D, Civil 3D, Inventor, ENGI file of the Building or Refinery to Excel, prepare Budget 1 and export it to COBRA. Prepare Budget 2 and export it to Microsoft Project. Solve the problems of Overallocated Resources, Planning Problems, prepare the Budget 3 with which the construction of the Building or the Refinery is going to be quoted.

[@Flight_of_Icarus]

I would note we're not at the war part yet. There's still time to see if there's any way to ease the bargaining friction.

[@Hession0Drasha]

The lines on dollars are acceptable, if the dollars themselves are on maps. But we're watching you.

[@MrSplodez]

Some day I hope we will live in a world where William Spaniel wont have a new source of KZbin content every month

[@nebojsag.5871]

Oil alone doesn't explain wars. It helps to explain a lot.

[@Goulmy86]

What if Madoro was "removed" from the equation?

[@rafaelgomezestevez4217]

The dream of every venezuelan

[@fuzzyhair321]

When the british sent a coastal patrol boat as a sign of goodwill. It can be viewed as a slap in the face to Venezuela. Your entire navy is worth our patrol boat

[@CharliMorganMusic]

New thumbnail style and channel icon? Nice!

[@trueriver1950]

It's also worth remembering that Venezuela was one of the original members of OPEC -- and possibly the only non-Arab state in the original cartel

[@1steyeblind]

Im telling you this book of yours would sell so many more copies if you made an audio book with you narrating it. “Lines on maps” doesn’t sound right unless it’s in your voice.

[@asan1050]

Thanks! William Spaniel

[@MrJdsenior]

WAR=We Are Right. To that I say YAR (pirtatese), for you are right. If Sodamn Insane had been asked if he wanted to invade Kuwait, knowing at that moment what he would know the moment that they picked him out of that Styrofoam covered hole, he would likely have said something akin to, "Nope, we're good". ;-P As an American, I totally agree with Iraq I (if you will, the out of Kuwait, toe of the boot treatment), but Iraq II was a disaster from the end of the couple of week sweep on up to the withdrawal. We made a total mess of that country, to everyone's detriment, especially theirs. It's not easy to screw up a country worse than an evil, brutal dictator could, but we managed it, somehow. And the WMD, at least at any appreciable level, or ANY level WRT nukes, was vapor news. The "Mushroom cloud, Mushroom cloud...Mushroom cloud) out of the Bush flunkies got absolutely laughable, especially that idiot, Rice, though Rumsfeld and Cheney weren't much better. His VP couldn't spell pototoeee, either. I wanna tell ya though, I've seen worse.

[@BagoasAnushParsaRad]

Irak estaba mejor sin la invasión del 2003, de qué sirvió derrocar a Saddam Hussein?.

[@eastcorkcheeses6448]

Its likely all about distraction, instead of looking in at your nations problems , you get everyone to look outward , think Argentina invading the falklands , the argentine had trained to attack ships ,the airforce hadnt ,so the airforce got the job of "defending" the islands , argentina had well trained / well equipped troops - they were on the Chilean border, it was mainly conscripts sent to the islands .., The regieme didnt bother extending the airport- runway to operate fighters from the islands , to keep the uk fleet further from the islands ,

[@alexhubble]

Holy Jesus. I think i follow the news fairly carefully. Dull stuff too. But of course, I had heard nothing about Israel Lebanon gas negotiations. What narrative would it fit?! And 'Bars on Dollaarrs' - nice!

[@delaiasdeabreu9509]

Força Venezuela 👍❤

[@independentvoter8710]

That "US-UK TENSIONS" story at 7:23 could actually happen.

[@Nick_SlavaUkraini]

Thank you

[@gangsta8929]

What a time to be a war YTer

[@zorroairbrush2003]

The oil crisis is nothing compared to the upcoming water crisis thanks to oil. 😢

[@ctg4818]

Stop bottling all the water and it will turn back into rain.

[@gtphantum]

Well it's going to be a next thing for Venezuela to *itch about because the name Guyana literally means ( land of many waters) because it has one of the highest abundance of fresh water on earth 🙄

[@madzen112]

Depends on the war. To parallel, opium explains a couple of wars really really well.

[@madzen112]

On the other hand, explaining a war like Vietnam as a scramble for resources is definitely lacking.

[@shorewall]

Opium doesn't explain the wars. UK had a trade deficit with China, from buying tea among other things, and wanted two way trade to balance it out, but China didn't want to buy anything from the UK. Or rather, the Chinese Emperor didn't want his people buying clocks or tools that might make their lives easier. The only thing the Chinese wanted from the UK was Opium, which wasn't illegal and was used by Westerners as well. Except it was like giving Alcohol to Native Americans. They were susceptible to it. Even when the Chinese Emperor outlawed Opium, Chinese smugglers still worked with British traders to bring in Opium. The wars started when China started attacking British Traders. All in all, there was a lot more than opium that caused the conflicts.

[@theprelude296]

Rephrase :people makes war over the need and control over oil,not oil causes war.

[@KRUNWAY1]

I’m standing with my Guyanese peeps on this…❤

[@no.5924]

Really missed the chance to call it Bars on Bolívars (Venezuelan currency)

[@0fficialdregs]

you forgot the fact that Brazil would enter the war to ensure stability in the region.

[@nicolaasstempels8207]

It should be noted that most of the Guyanaian oil is off shore, which makes a jungle run slightly less likely.

[@ssokolow]

Having recently watched a documentary on said river, that mispronunciation of Essequibo is really bugging me... especially since, these being spanish-speaking countries, pronouncing "qui" as key/kee is just about the most standard, mundane thing in existence.

[@gtphantum]

Guyana is English speaking and we pronounce it S- E- QUIB- O ESSEQUBIO

[@ssokolow]

@@gtphantum Huh. TIL and I stand corrected. Somehow, I was under the impression that French Guyana was the only non-Spanish, non-Portugese colony in South America. I guess I'll have to make time to go over the map to make sure I don't have any more of those misconceptions lurking.

[@ameyas7726]

US silence on this is not weakness...Maduro's Venezuela simply is in no position to go to war and the US knows this....Even Russia, China has not reacted much to this because they know this too...and India recently has arranged a huge oil deal with Venezuela to diversify from Middle East due to the recent Israel-Palestine war tensions and red sea shipping attacks...India pulling out will be a huge loss to Venezuela..

[@Khal_Rheg0]

Danke!

[@nastynotch8314]

“Uncle Sam not flying south to give out some good ol fashion freedom.” I was in the Iraq and Afghan war. This made me chuckle like a child.

[@georgethompson913]

Doesn't venezaula struggle to even exteact its own oil?

[@kyh148]

It does.