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Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine revealed significant issues with Russian planning, force structure and military culture. On this channel I've spent the better part of a year exploring some of those issues and helping to explain why, as suggested back in March 2022, this was (and is) a much closer war many analysts expected.
But it is equally important not to underestimate Russian strengths and capabilities. From information warfare to ammunition production and mobilisation potential, Russia has a suite of resources and capabilities that it can leverage.
Following a popular vote, in this episode I look at Russian military performance and capabilities in Ukraine, and why I believe it remains a major threat for Ukraine in 2023.
As you might expect, there won't be quite as many punchlines in this one.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats:
Many, many, many caveats - some of which I capture in this video.
My big ask is that this presentation not be taken out of context. A sober assessment of Russian capabilities is not the same as an assessment that Russia is likely win. Instead it represents a set of challenges that Ukraine will have to overcome - something I will look at further next week.
Sources:
RUSI - Preliminary Lessons in conventional warfighting...
rusi.org/explore-our-research...
RUSI - The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence
rusi.org/explore-our-research...
"I live, I fight, I win" - a guide by the Russian Union of Veterans of Afghanistan and Special Military Operations (machine translation)
www.docdroid.net/5avzOQK/i-li...
Work of Covert Cabal counting Russian tanks in depots:
• How Many Tanks Does Ru...
• How Many Tanks Does Ru...
FMSO - The Russian way of War
www.armyupress.army.mil/porta...
Paper figures for RU military equipment are per MB2021 as always for consistency (though the omission of T-62 from paper reserve list is yet another point that causes me to raise a questionmark with that source)
TC 7-100.2 OPFOR tactics
armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pu...
Variety of public statements and interviews given by officers and troops involved in the fighting in Ukraine. Examples include:
Interview with Ukrainian artillery officer at Bakhmut
• Top Ukrainian artiller...
Interview with Ukrainian pilot by thedrive
www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...
I would also like to extend a personal thanks to those who consulted directly on the preparation of this presentation, including those Ukrainians who agreed to provide input on the challenges they still face.
I hope to receive permission to credit at least some of these in the future.
Credit to social media and OSINT based sources as normal, in particular Julia Davis of Russia Media Monitor for her work monitoring and translating Russian media, and, of course, loss aggregators and geolocators.
Timestamps
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:01:57 - What Am I Talking About?
00:02:47 - A Note on Sources
00:03:39 - RUSSIAN INFORMATION WARFARE
00:03:53 - Contradictions
00:06:52 - What Does This Achieve?
00:08:58 - Leveraging Legacy?
00:10:14 - BELARUS
00:11:23 - COMBAT PERFORMANCE
00:11:53 - The Poor Mobik Trope
00:13:53 - Russia's Hard Edge
00:18:26 - Let's Not Get Ahead of Ourselves
00:19:29 - FIRE SUPERIORITY
00:19:44 - Russian Artillery Retains the Advantage
00:26:24 - STRATEGIC LOGISTICS
00:26:35 - Wait What? Russia & Logistics?
00:27:27 - Logistics at the Strategic Level
00:34:23 - Adaptation
00:35:35 - Enabling Strategic Manoeuvre & Sustainment
00:36:40 - TECHNOLOGICAL EDGE
00:36:48 - The Product of Modernisation
00:38:10 - Ukraine Is Not All Bling
00:39:02 - THE EDGE IN THE AIR
00:39:24 - An Asymmetric Fight
00:42:08 - BVR
00:43:57 - A Realised Advantage
00:45:01 - NAVAL EDGE
00:45:09 - The Black Sea Situation
00:46:09 - A Strategic Handicap
00:46:45 - AN ASYMMETRY OF REACH
00:46:50 - Russia's Long Reach
00:48:22 - From Lancet to Iskander
00:50:10 - A One-Way Tax
00:50:56 - RUSSIA CAN LEARN
00:51:12 - Evidence of Adaptation
00:53:29 - ENDURANCE
00:53:40 - Regeneration & Reconstitution
00:53:58 - Casualty Tolerance
00:55:43 - The Manpower Pool
00:57:21 - Equipment Reserves
01:00:53 - Industrial Mobilisation
01:01:58 - Adaptation
01:02:53 - Regression and Output
01:04:50 - CONCLUSIONS: The Threats to Ukraine
01:05:55 - CONCLUSIONS: Russia is Not a Broken Force
01:06:31 - CONCLUSIONS: Overcoming Russian Advantages
01:08:03 - CONCLUSIONS: An Enduring Threat
01:08:17 - Channel Update