Safety, Risk Management and Decision Making.

[@maritvansanten]

Hi Brett, I'm following you for quite a while now. Not because I'm an outdoor type (I'm not), not even because I seakayak (I don't). But I do love to kayak (up until now in a very basic 3 meter short recreational kayak) from early spring till late fall at the many lakes and streams around Sneek (Netherlands). Your video's are very clear and logical and you really show every subject that I might sooner or later want to know, or encounter (wanted or not), and you already radically changed my view of safety, strokes and the different (ways to use) paddles. But the most important thing in this particular video, the thing that really set me thinking, is the difference between knowledge and experience. Of course I knew the literal difference, but this video made me understand how to look at my own kayaking skills. More importantly, it made me rethink my so wanted (solo!) camping/kayakingtrip. I'll for sure make that trip some time, but probably not yet this summer. Even though I've been planning this trip for some time now. Because I do think after watching this video, that my experience (and health) won't live up to my knowledge, and that could truly make that trip turn into a horror in stead of fun and enjoyable. I need to get into my (just arrived new 4 meter long tour) kayak way more often and even make some 1 or 2 overnight kayakingtrips, before I make my desired week long solo trip. I also need to do some backup planning in case the weather turns too bad to paddle at one ore more days. Since camping in the wild is prohibited in the Netherlands, and campingplaces in the sommer are scarce. Even for small trekking tents. So, thank you!!

[@AdventureOtaku]

Thank you so much for watching, and for your kind words. I am glad I could be of help even from a distance. It sounds like you are making some solid decisions. If I can help in the future dont hesitate to email me. BrettATadventureotaku.com.

[@maritvansanten]

@@AdventureOtaku Thank you, I will

[@snowleopard1918]

Hi Brett, I’m a retired industrial electrician. I’ve always been highly safety oriented, you have to be. In oil and gas we always talk about LPSA, and FLRA. That’s Loss Prevention Self Assessment. That’s what is my current task and what are the hazards and what am I doing to mitigate the risks. FLRA, that’s Field Level Risk Assessment. That’s what’s going on around you, what are others doing that could be hazardous to you and them and equipment. You are ultimately responsible for your own safety. If you don’t understand the risks, you need to ask. That’s the big problem though because some people just can’t think safety or surmise possible risks. So in oil and gas we have a mentorship period. This all can be transposed to outdoor activities. Experience is key to a safe day in anything. A failure to plan is a plan to fail. Here on the west coast of Canada, there are always people being rescued from the mountains, who didn’t have the right gear, the right knowledge or the right plan. Fortunately marine mishaps are much rarer. I see people all the time in cold weather paddling in blue jeans. One guy told me he just wears his down jacket in winter. Anyway that’s my little public service announcement . Great videos keep it up. Happy paddling.

[@AdventureOtaku]

thanks for the comment and you are exactly right. I am a big proponent of Safety third - which is essentially "you are responsible for your safety" I see people all the time doing stupid things, but I also don't want to be the safety police.... thanks for watching!

[@dannyroberts5056]

This risk assessment was interesting to me. I say that because over the last thirty plus years of paddling, I chose to call off a six day paddling trip in my kayak. I live in the Ozarks in MO. and I have paddled thousands of miles on many lakes. The highest winds I have paddled in were twenty mph with gust up to 24. I have paddled in all seasons and have even paddled in sleet, freezing rain and snow. I dress for both water and weather conditions. Most of my trips have been alone. I am always looking for my next escape plan if something were to go south. I do this everytime I get on the water. Those plans are changing with every mile. I called off my first trip ever do to my overall mental state at that moment. I pulled over for lunch at about noon and just assesed what I needed to accomplish that day only. I camped the night before at a public campground that did not turn out well. Loud music until 1am and 89degrees that night. I was up by 5 am packed and started the two mile portage to the put in spot at day brake. I didnt even get on the water until 8 a.m. The first six miles were great no issues at all. The last two miles I just couldnt seem to keep my boat in motion. I cant explain it . I literally had to talk myself into paddling. I have never experienced this before. It was in the 90s but I was on a trout lake that has a current so I was not hot. The water temps were in the fifties. I pulled over for lunch and realized I still had forteen miles to go to make camp that night. That would put me in after dark at the speed I was traveling. I also had another portage around a 30 ft tall dam. That portage was about a quarter mile long. I had never paddled that lake before below that dam. I also new that they would start releasing water from the dam upstream at dusk. I also took into account that the next three days would be in the tripple digits. Three days prior the temps were going to be in the low ninties. The second lake I was on was an 89 miles stretch to the take out at the dam. That lake has allot of shore line were no houses or roads are at. Large open water and only three mph wind speeds for the next four days. I prefer to deal with cold conditions than extreme heat when Im paddling that many miles. At first I tried to talk myself out of quitting but I didn't. I told myself , No I do this for fun not to torture myself. The lake isnt going anywhere I can do this another time. Things just kept compounding and I feel like I made the right choice. Last spring we lost two experienced paddlers on one of our lakes. It was still early spring and water temps were in the low fifties with 15 to 18 mph winds. A father and son lost their lives. Neither men were dressed for submersion and neither were wearing a PFD. Both sank in over a hundred foot of water and If memory serves me correct it was over two or three weeks before they found them. Imo this situation was 100 percent avoidable. Like you said there is a difference in experience and skill. Bad choices can eventually lead to a bad consequence. I feel for the family and let this remind me to make wise choices. This is why I get so frustrated at people who toss their PFDs in the bottom of their conoes or kayaks. They do you no good if you dont wear them. It may not save your life in the most extreme conditions but it does help in recovery if the worst were to happen. Sorry for rampling so long but I just wanted to share this. Thanks for these great videos

[@AdventureOtaku]

Great comment, no apology necessary. A couple of thoughts, I am wondering if the heat exhaustion as going on when you had to “talk yourself into paddling.” Several times I have had to do recovery of paddlers who died on lakes and invariably they aren’t wearing a PFD, or the boat is found first and there is a PFD in it. I am planning a video of putting on a PFD in the water. Thanks for stopping by and taking the time to comment.

[@tehbieber]

I think as a general principle, any worthwhile safety tool will result in *some* people taking risks they wouldn't have otherwise and getting into trouble, but the aggregate effect for the population as a whole is better outcomes. People argue about this a lot with flesh detection technology in woodworking, and I suspect you'll find the same kind of discussion in a bunch of other fields

[@AdventureOtaku]

I suspect you are right. I didn’t know there were debates about flesh detection. That’s fascinating

[@tehbieber]

@@AdventureOtaku ohhhh yeah, some guys will swear up and down that buying a saw stop makes you less safe because you'll take more risks at the table saw. Some people seem to think the same way about seat belts and airbags too

[@AdventureOtaku]

@tehbieber so being a former medic I can say that for about 5 years after airbags were released we saw drops in fatalities….and then they creeped back up. Go figure

[@gadgetman_nz4092]

Nailed. Way down under, in New Zealand, I live on the edge of the large Canterbury Plains. We get the wind forecasts in km/h average and we often watch the live weather and most of the time the gusts are at least twice the average speed. Being flat on a fairly small island nation the wind is usually howling through from one direction or another, the three dominant winds are the coastal North Easterly (blowing onto the land) typically 30-35 average. The North Westerly (blowing over the Tasman Sea from Australia, which blows over our mountains, dropping rain on the West side of the Island and hurtling back down as it crosses to the east gaining speed and temperature) which will often be around 30 average but can be up and over 100 average. The last major wind is the Southerly, blowing cold air up from penguin land which often hits with an average of 60. I've paddled all of these winds and chose a location suitable for the conditions. I've surfed a kayak on a 300m long lake in a Southerly. Been smacked sideways by 100km/h Northwest gusts on the little river running through the city. Paddled into the North Westerly averaging 60. Tackled the 1-2m swells in the harbour with the Easterly blowing straight up it. Choosing a location where you can mitigate the risk by working out where you will end up safely if things go pear shaped is the way to get experience.

[@AdventureOtaku]

Totally agree. Thanks for watching from far away

[@kevincasey2947]

People who are fun to be with are fun to be with. I start there. 😄

[@AdventureOtaku]

well, that IS true.... but lets hope there is a little more going on in terms of risk management.

[@maryhenry3257]

Love your jacket! Also really appreciate your risk management themed videos: I am at the point where I want to challenge myself more, and realize the importance of a conscientious approach. I’m 64, 6 years paddling/camping in a Delta 14, about a thousand hours paddling mostly on smaller lakes. In Ontario where I am, if I did not paddle on near frozen lakes, I’d lose a big chunk of the paddling season, so probably 200 of my hours are in calm conditions but freezing temps, snow and ice but mostly open water. Where I have little experience, and real caution, is on big water (Georgian Bay in my case) where I only have maybe 50 hours in. I’m always solo. Constantly working to find a group. I only solo paddle big water in summer temps, light breezes, 3 foot waves or less, and I (mostly) stay within 2 km of land. But I learn so much more on big water, I want to do more. There have been a few times when I knew for certain that I can handle the conditions given my experience, but I decided to scrub because I was not in a confident place. Good hearing your process on making the decision to go/no go…thanks.

[@AdventureOtaku]

Thanks for watching. Glad I can be helpful. Which jacket?

[@maryhenry3257]

The jacket you wear in the first minute (and later)…it’s great 👍

[@AdventureOtaku]

Ah, vintage fleece. Thanks.

[@wendelbordelon660]

I really appreciate Your review of the wind speeds, which turns out to be very similar to mine. we recently canceled and overnight camp out on a barrier island because the wind was going to be a headwind of 20 going out very windy, very cold over the weekend and then a headwind of 25 plus coming back. We didn't have quite as tough a choice because this is a yearly trip. Regards inreach etc I don't think it really encouraged people to be less safe any more than having cell phone have. I think the people that get the emergency comm devices have thought some a out risk and hopefully will learn more as they go.

[@AdventureOtaku]

Dont you love the headwind both ways? We had that too. Can’t catch a break

[@davidkrueger3152]

Thx for providing this timely info. Enjoy your videos. I winter kayak using a dry suit. I was under the impression, with the correct under layers, that a person would have more time in freezing waters than 10 + minutes. Could you clarify? Looking forward to the hypothermia video. Hope that’s next. Thx.

[@AdventureOtaku]

It’s not next, but it’s soon….ish… You are right. Depending on what you are wearing underneath. The thing is you cant wear a million layers or you will sweat and that will lead to hypothermia too… so its a balance. In general the rule is 1/10/1. 1 minute to control breathing. 10 minutes (or less) to self rescue. 1 hour until unconscious. This is probably based on no dry suit, so that adds a little….but then we slide into the world of variables.

[@davidkrueger3152]

Thx!

[@CharlieEchoDelta]

Risk = Probability X Consequence. There are other factors to consider, such as: Experience in like situations, Practised knowledge, Group size and experience level of members, Skill set of members, Equipment and gear, Weather conditions - prevailing & anticipated, Remoteness and accessibility, Mindset, Overall health of the group/individual members, Etc... But the formula remains: RISK = PROBABILITY of an event X CONSEQUENCES of said event.

[@AdventureOtaku]

As I said, this is very basic, I go deeper in my book. And show the grid that most people use to determine risk vs consequence. But literally everything you mention in your list I either mentioned in the video or is on the card.

[@CharlieEchoDelta]

Agreed. I was an outdoor guide for 11 years, and now I only head out with a close-knit, well vetted group of friends. I enjoy your videos immensely and appreciate your skills based approach to educating people rather than the other channels that exist to promote and sell the latest, shiny piece of kit; shiny gear is not a substitute for experience earned knowledge. If you are in want of something decent to read: Deep Survival by Laurence Gonzales. Cheers,

[@AdventureOtaku]

oh Ive read it brother! And I always recommend it to new outdoor educators. thanks for watching and your kind words.

[@dm208060]

Wondering which of the plethora of wind models you rely on? Using Windy I tend to rely on GFS, NAM, and ECMWF models (with NAM being more preferred for local wind predictions closer to paddle day). How do you approach risk management when wind models offer conflicting forecasts for the same location on the same date(s). Thanks! BTW, a great primer on risk mgmt and setting go / no-go criteria to guide planning,

[@AdventureOtaku]

So here is the thing, the only I app I use that separates the models is WIndy, and I don’t pay for windy, which means I don’t get that feature. So in windy I rely on the whichever the default model is. The other apps I use don’t have that option. But which model to use is always the big question and so you do sort of what meteorologists do (yes, they have the same problem) A meteorologist when running a storm will run all the models hundreds of times each (its automated) to get a predicted likelihood. But it is a serious guess. Which is why they are frequently wrong. With experience in your area you will learn which model is more accurate (but that doesn’t mean that model is always right) All of this is why Johnny and I made that go/no go call as close to departure as possible. We made the final call 48 hours before we would be paddling. At 48 hours it should settle down enough to know what’s really going to happen. Should being the operative word.

[@tommycheshire5508]

I know very clearly what my limits in the ocean are. I know my limits on a lake even more clearly . I am at the point in life where I tend to error on the side of caution. I am not going to trust my life to something that might in the end cost me a lot of money, and perhaps take a long time to arrive. I am getting a little long in the tooth to mount much of a self rescue, so I pick cautiously at risk assessment. Don’t get me wrong, a three foot wave is going to get me into the ocean. My biggest concerns are cold water and sudden high winds.😅

[@AdventureOtaku]

Im not far behind you Tommy.

[@tommycheshire5508]

@@AdventureOtaku Today was an awesome topic. Once again you made me think about several things . I guess I never thought about the two items of rescue. I would carry a radio but I figured the other two were more expensive than any benefit that I would get from owning them. Thanks again for the interesting topic today. Anyone who cares about his or her life either pondered about or has a false sense of risk. It only takes one harrowing experience to put things into perspective. Thanks again for thinking in advance for us. A noble man.

[@AdventureOtaku]

Ah, you’re too kind brother. Paddle safe.

[@tommycheshire5508]

@@AdventureOtaku You, my friend, have been well worth my time. Such a blessing you have been. A friend on the sidelines.

[@kevinharding2099]

Trips are supposed to be fun and not a series of risks. When the weather and other factors make a trip a continual challenge then go another time. I believe that cell phones and spot devices may well enable people to take more risks. I worked in a visitor’s center for 6 years and saw many people who were unprepared (both lack of knowledge and lack of experience), but were often reluctant to take advice. Friends who worked in search and rescue were most often contacted via cell phone. Would those unprepared people have gone out if they had no back up? Everyone should be prepared for self rescue as much as possible. A great deal of time and money was spent rescuing people who failed to take advice and used their cell phone instead of their brains.

[@AdventureOtaku]

I agree with you in terms of people using cell phones instead of good judgement. But I have some things to say about your first two sentence. First, EVERYTHING is a series of risks. Going to the supermarket you are facing a series of risks. So certainly kayaking or backpacking has added risks. RM is about mitigating those risks. Being aware of changes and adjusting accordingly. And to your second sentence have, you never heard of type 2 fun?

[@lenjanssen9600]

What Wind app were you using in the video? Thanks

[@Simon_W74]

I use an App called Windy. there is a free version of it available. I started with the free version then my curiosity got the better of me and paid for the full app on one of their offers. There are features that I will not use, but there is plenty of information you can added via custom settings.

[@AdventureOtaku]

The App I am using in the video is just the IOS weather app (which used to be dark skies, apple bought it and worked it into their OS) I cut out of the video all the talk that Johnny and I did about Windy, which another commenter mentioned) We used both apps but the video was way too long.

[@AdventureOtaku]

I just mentioned in another comment, that we used windy as well, but I had to remove that part of the conversation from the video for time. Johnny and I actually had a third conversation via FaceTime between the two showed in the video. I love windy…. Great app.

[@Simon_W74]

I think if your buying devices to try to be safer on the water or the trail that is fine, but you should not push yourself too much out of your comfort zone just because you have a means of getting help. It is better to have it and never need it than to push yourself to far then have to rely upon said devices for your survival if things go wrong. I am not known for being risk obverse, I tend to weight things up to see if it is worth pushing my limits a fraction, as that is were we can learn new skills but in a more controlled way. I was never like that as a kid and it is with age and sense of is that going to hurt that stop me form doing anything too silly. I am already looking at the weather for the upcoming Leadership Course I am a volunteer for as it is weather dependent if it goes ahead, as on the open water day we need wind of F3 for the sailing part of the course for the Canoes to use. We in the Kayaks and on SUPs are doing impression of limpets and just hanging on for the ride. I am really looking forward to it, as I haven't been away without my Family for 9 years. Hopefully it will be the first of many trips away.

[@AdventureOtaku]

Totally agree. My question is are people without our level of experience are neglecting good RM… because they have the button to push. But yes I would much rather have it and not need it….

[@Simon_W74]

@@AdventureOtaku I wouldn't put myself in your in level of experience category. Nowhere near. I think it could be down to how we see things going on around us, and how we perceive that will be very different from person to person. Some of will see more then what is immediately in front of them, and other will only see just that. I would think that they would be the ones that would be more inclined to push things because they have a means of calling for help if things do go wrong. This is where a discussing things in a run up to an event like in you show in this video, pays of, as some will possibly just plan the trip, and not take the weather or other environmental issues into consideration that can have an effect on the overall outcome of a trip.

[@AdventureOtaku]

excellent point. and actually that would be a good second video on RM. is just alertness to what is going on around you..... thanks brother.

[@tehbieber]

I bought a SPOT recently but ngl, I kind of feel like I'd rather just die than accept the embarrassment of pushing the SOS button ;)

[@AdventureOtaku]

@tehbieber that made me laugh, but honestly I feel the same way

[@tommyrq180]

There’s a whole admittedly sketchy literature in psychology about this issue. For example, increasingly effective helmets in football have increased the severity of hits and head trauma. Seat belts allegedly increase risk-taking when driving. Automation of flight controls has, allegedly, increased pilot risk-taking. Most of this “research” is not replicable, i.e., it’s suspect. I can say without equivocation that the situation is more complicated because it involved human behavior. Some people probably take fewer risks because of technology. Some take more. What I can claim is that social media has caused a viral emergence of safety zealots who really don’t know anything but are displaying their mental health issues online for virtually everything. Let me be clear-that’s not happening here, but this video will trigger them! Posturing for likes, self-aggrandizement without credibility, commenting without context or even a hint they care about more than their own comment, etc. It’s similar to the rash of “trauma dumping” online (so annoying). Mostly they prey on normal humans who won’t call them on it or don’t know any better and want to appear sympathetic. The key is that the safety zealots are operating from an INFINITE well of “what aboutism” or things that could go wrong. They don’t care about you or the community like the people in this video. I appreciate very much hearing how these kayakers assess risk. But you can’t avoid all of it which is why I personally love getting on the water. Stuff happens in life.

[@AdventureOtaku]

To the research aspect I have seen some of that research... interesting, but as you said, when human nature is involved..... As to the safety zealots.... that is why I am rarely on Social media. A bit on instagram but that is it. And I stay far away from facebook. there is nothing good going on there. nothing at all.