Setting a Trap: Why the U.S. Telegraphed its Attack on Iranian Proxies

On January 28, a drone attack struck a U.S. base in Jordan, killing three. Five days later, the United States conducted retaliatory strikes in Iraq and Syria. Much has been made of why the delay occurred, but the basic analysis misses the deeper tricks into gathering intelligence. This video dives into the different cleavages that exist with militant groups, and how careful planning can elicit the information a government seeks.
0:00 The Delayed Attack in Iraq and Syria
2:20 There Actually Wasn't Much Delay
2:53 The Poor Logic of Criticism
4:26 The Poor Logic of the Basic Praise
7:26 How to Gather Intel Using Leader-Follower Problems
10:06 How to Gather Intel Using Civilians
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Tasnim News Agency:
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By Kremlin.ru:
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Media licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Nemo5576:
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[@edanarator7716]

The US is actually legally required to act like a Dark Souls boss (including telegraphing their attacks) by the UN charter

[@gideonmele1556]

“Why won’t they dodge?!”

[@timesathousand]

Unfortunately, militant Islam seems to have plenty bonfires to keep respawning at :/

[@zydrate5098]

Foreign supported insurgency groups. The US knows a thing or two about that.​@@timesathousand

[@mandarinandthetenrings2201]

During World War II, America would drop "leaflets" on cities warning them that they would be bombed. This what America has always done. This guy who made this video doesn't know basic American history and is making shit up as goes along.

[@101jir]

"But, but I thought US was evil rogue state that only ever does warcrimes! My feews!!!!" 😥😥

[@T33K3SS3LCH3N]

I saw those "the targets had 5 days to evacuate, obviously the US won't hit anything" comments myself and damn are they stupid. 1. If a very vague threat is sufficient to make every Iranian-supported militia group in the middle east relocate EVERYTHING, then this would be an absurd cost based on pure guesswork. 2. Obviously the US will begin observing their prime candidate sites the moment they make such an announcement. They will know which ones (if any) actually got evacuated. 3. Many of those comments were still made when there was already footage of those strikes hitting targets with massive secondary explosions, so they clearly did hit something.

[@genericscout5408]

Yeeee if the police one day say they'll do more to catch criminals. that doesn't suddenly mean every robber in the city stops... robbing. I'd even bet most of these militia groups never knew about the USA's announcement because they're merely foot soldier/conscript level soldiers who might get paid for their efforts. These type of soldiers rarely get told anything.

[@mandarinandthetenrings2201]

You don't know what the hell you talking about. During World War II America would drop "leaflets" on German cities to warn them to get of the bombing area around their factories. When President Biden gave then 5 days over 40,000 Iranian militants abandoned over 500 bases in Syria and crossed into Iraq. So yea, would say the warning had the desired affect.

[@mattpotter8725]

@@genericscout5408 And these groups will do what they're told by those higher up in the militant chain of command, probably because they will have seen what happens to colleagues that take initiative and do things on their own, which would deter anyone but the most stupid from relocating. Whether those higher up have such commands to any of their cells who knows, it's possible they might have plans to move some supplies to better protected sites harder to destroy via drone or missile attack, but as said in the video this comes with risks as well so I tend to believe it works, mainly because these kind of operations aren't dreamt up by the president or even his team on the back of an envelope over drinks at the White Horse in the Oval Office but by intelligence officials who have decades of experience to back then up.

[@Gubers]

You’re generalizing and simplifying the criticism to make it easier to argue. Theres a whole slew of reasons why we shouldn’t wait days to respond beyond “they will just move”. That is a valid criticism still, as they can relocate the most important stuff ,commanders, leaders. But the bigger issue is telegraphing our entire strategy and intent in the conflict in general. Iran and its proxies know it can get away with continued aggression because we just sit around and plan out strikes for days. There should be IMMEDIATE retaliation for every single attack. THAT is how deterrence works… It’s not working because that’s not how we’re doing it. Iran is effectively in control. Its proxies are designed for this. Imagine a bee hive that doesn’t respond to you sitting there hitting it with a stick. You damage it more and more and then finally a few bees come out to attack. But that’s it. Not a very good deterrence. In reality you do not sit there and hit the bee hive with a stick because you know the army of bees with immediately attack. That is deterrence. That’s how it works. And it would be working in this conflict if that’s how we responded. There should be immediate retaliation for every single attack on US forces of any kind. And after it continues then instead of telegraphing we don’t want escalation. We should be escalating and sending a message that we will not tolerate it. Not basically telling them we’re just going to tit-for-tat with our immensely more expensive assets. They WANT that. Because it’s trivial for them. And they get to sit there attacking American forces and doing damn near anything they want…

[@dairebulson7122]

It's just a Republican talking point. Of course, that said, as an American (and a staunch non-interventionist), I am personally firmly opposed to any strikes whatsoever, whether on paramilitary groups in Syria and Iraq, or on the "Houthi" forces in Yemen.

[@Eiswueste]

I'm from Europe and still closely follow America's political quarrel. It hurts but I can't stop.

[@idiotgaming6376]

It hurts more when you live in it

[@enricogattone432]

Me too, know much too much about it than what would be good for my own health 😂

[@theo1216]

Here in scotland we were taught way more about American politics than our own, always struck me as a bit odd but I guess it's just a byproduct of British & American geopolitics being so closely intertwined.

[@OnTheThirdDay]

I feel your pain.

[@sol_in.victus]

As a non american, it feels better than our own internal politics since it affects me way less. Kind of like watching a sport where the outcome affects you a negligible amount

[@khaledadams4329]

I liked the analogy of the United States' reaction being "already priced in".

[@ggaggagga4]

That's also how miscalculations occur that cause HUGE consequences that no one expected. Once Iran has nukes, the world will be on the brink, EVERY DAY...

[@sagitarriulus9773]

Hold on the b-1s came all the way from texas? Holy that’s horrifying

[@tsunderella5826]

US MIC go brtttt

[@DerekIcelord]

You can argue what country has the best infantry/tank/special forces/whatever all you like, but America is the undisputed king of logistics.

[@Cin0so]

⁠@@DerekIcelordwell, you can always argue who’s second

[@the11382]

I don't understand the point, the US has bases all over the world and aircraft carriers in the area. Given the distance, there is likely some aerial refueling involved as well.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

​@@the11382 having countries consent to an attack mission refueling in their country and the ability to do aerial refueling halfway across the world is a feat in itself.

[@m4yd1e86]

The geopolitical reminder card with the B1B's from Texas was pretty nicely played.

[@bobgehrls8538]

Them: Yeah, Were in the middle of nowhere, they can't reach us. US. Texas is close enough to reach this (or any) target.

[@wishusknight3009]

@@bobgehrls8538 To coin the old phrase, "Anywhere is walking distance when you have the time."

[@pseudonym745]

​@@wishusknight3009Or the speed as it's a part of the same equation 😄

[@Warszawski_Modernizm]

additional thought I had- what makes US a military superpower? not only, as Spaniel said, ability to surprise attack yo ass, but also I might add- to reach your a** a n y w h e r e around the globe, be it a deepest darkest hole in the desert or bush

[@American_Made]

Didn't even require us to bring out the B2's.

[@user-dj3ov4oi9j]

I'm in Canada. So I can follow US Politics to whatever degree I wish. This indeed makes my life happier than perhaps those who must experince these politics as a daily part of their lives. I do have to worry about our strategic maple syrup reserves

[@armandomercado2248]

As an American, I would be much happier not having to follow US politics. Come November we have a choice of a scatter brain 81 year old who has been in government too long, or a 77 year old wannabe dictator with 91 felony indictments.

[@drksideofthewal]

US politics today is often Canadian politics tomorrow

[@thomasburke7995]

Just stay away from the Vermont stuff..

[@dirkbester9050]

More like "I live in a frozen hellscape and US politics is my only entertainment". Eh.

[@user-dj3ov4oi9j]

You are correct about the cold as it can get slightly on the chilly side up here. one gets used to it easily enough. the Eh thing btw is more like a punctuation mark rather than word. Also its a regional thing, eh

[@hascrack3783]

More like a sign in Florida "caution Florida man"

[@enricogattone432]

Guess that's the signs on the alligator side of the ponds 😂

[@OnTheThirdDay]

Lol

[@orionred2489]

there's a bit of history to those signs. a lot of them say alligators after dark. this is a legal way to do an illegal thing...tell black folks to be out of town before sundown. just more racist history from the USA.

[@IrohthePyr0]

Gerasimov sighting at 5:12

[@Gametheory101]

Winner!

[@kleinweichkleinweich]

phuck too late @@Gametheory101

[@kingace6186]

Wait? Is he still missing?

[@alfastur6833]

It seems that he is still alive... although it seems that he is falling down from a window, so the enigma continues.

[@MultiCappie]

@@kingace6186 Yes, and so is the Black Sea Fleet commander.

[@ricinro]

I appreciate the professionalism of our military and leaders who respect the advice of our military. Worse case scenario would be a leader who thinks he/she is smarter than "the Generals".

[@uss-dh7909]

When the leaders are the vegtables in the garden, of course a general would be smarter.

[@frankgrabasse4642]

I agree, the cheeto colored ones was an idiot and grifter. Remember when he ewas disrespectful to McCain, like heroes who didn't get captured. Or when he attacked gold star families?

[@robr177]

Or the "losers" who died for their country.

[@cameronspence4977]

You literally just mentioned biden and trump

[@frast9201]

I love how you pivoted a full 720° from ai generated images to wargaming models

[@tylerphuoc2653]

This decision is almost guaranteed to make nerds feel better instead of getting half the nerds angry

[@martinarijsbergen4270]

I do love this clearheaded analysis,thanks for the work William Spaniel !

[@Wallyworld30]

Sure we have been striking them over the months with Tomahawk Missiles and Carrier Strike aircraft. What made this so much different that it required a Presidential Speech are the B-1 Lancers being flown from Texas to drop some massive ordinance. The B-1 can carry 75k lbs of ordinance. The max payload of a Tomahawk is 1K lbs. So each B-1 Lancer represents 75 Cruise Missile's in firepower. If they sent 6 B-1's from Texas that is like launching 450 Tomahawk Missiles.

[@SBCBears]

The payload is not the weight of the missile.

[@Warszawski_Modernizm]

Was thinking about the same- one mission, 85 targets across the region, so- how many rockets/lg bombs/else did they actually drop during one "night to remember"...?

[@robertwoodroffe123]

@@SBCBearsglide bombs have high warhead to overall weight, ratio

[@johannjohann6523]

Good comment and observation. We're definitely holding back. By the way, Vacation is my number 1 fav movie too!

[@whirving]

Doesn't the US have a couple hundred B-1s? Maybe we sent 12?

[@PleegWat]

As a European, my knowledge of US presidential election politics mainly concerns worry about how Russia will respond to the outcome.

[@Not_that_Brian_Jones]

Given that Russia invaded Ukraine when Biden was president, I'm not sure if it makes any difference. That is, I think that what determines what Russia does has more to do with what is happening in Russia rather than what is happening in the U.S.. It may make a difference in terms of how _successful_ Russia ultimately will be, but I'm not sure that it makes a difference in terms of what they may do.

[@the11382]

@@Not_that_Brian_Jones Europeans are concerned about the US's commitment to NATO. Trump has made a comment on pulling out of NATO. Trump's political wing on has the same or even stronger sentiments.

[@OnTheThirdDay]

@the11382 It is partly a negotiating strategy, I think. He likes to do the "big ask" then compromises. He wants Nato members to pay more and saying he quits if he doesn't get his way is a negotiating strategy.

[@karldubhe8619]

Yah, I'm betting Putin regrets that choice now. All the Muscovites did was demonstrate to the world that they're not a near-peer of the USA, or China, perhaps not even India. Well done. @@Not_that_Brian_Jones

[@genericscout5408]

Biden will ask the USA to give money to Ukraine, Trump says he wants to cut all aid immediately and republicans agree. Trump might win the election cause he's for the USA having borders which is a strong thing people even in New York agree with.

[@brey6394]

As always, great content and superb humor. I appreciate the explanation about what happened and why.

[@dproduzioni]

I began following your channel because of your lucid and comprehensive style in discussing these subjects, with such a pragmatism and an informed point of view. I'm from Italy and the press coverage on international politics here is very superficial. During the last months I appreciated even more your work: you cover fundamental aspects of important conflicts that shape the future lives of everyone on this planet, by rendering them accessible to people who don't are necessarily expert in the field. I love your style and your sincere tone, and even became convinced to buy your books. Keep up the good work! Best regards.

[@noyopacific]

Thanks for the video Dr. Spaniel !!!

[@Ar1AnX1x]

I personally think this was more like a warning retaliation rather than just for doing real damage

[@MNTrader2012]

Yes we can see that is really working. Both Houthis and Iran have stopped their acts. LOL

[@qefewfwdcwdc]

nobody expected them to stop 😂 you probably some underaged basementdweller. the whole video was pointless and ALREADY CONFIRMED that biden already struck the proxies MONTHS AHEAD OF TIME. they US just recently told the press about retaliation BECAUSE YOU wouldnt have KNOWN OTHERWISE. meaning you peasants are so unimportant not even sleepy joe takes his time to tell you about it 😂 @@MNTrader2012

[@HibHab69]

The 'Goku takes half an hour to charge up the spiritbomb' vs. frame-one kamehameha. One looks more badass, the other looks desperate and aggressive.

[@msimon6808]

Huh?

[@EvIlaGaiN16]

I love that this makes Freiza the irl equivalent of Iranian backed militant groups.

[@tylerphuoc2653]

@@EvIlaGaiN16 Frieza is just the Ayatollah

[@markb8468]

Love the analysis. Thanks as always.

[@dennisschwartzentruber3204]

I always treasure your analysis !

[@pseudonym745]

Every time something valuable to learn! Thank you for sharing!

[@GregBrownsWorldORacing]

Always enjoy your content Wm. Spaniel

[@williamlloyd3769]

Great synopsis, would only add a retrospective look back of satellite reconnaissance photography to see where land has been disturbed over the past five years and see if any excavation or other construction sites come to light for further assessment

[@enricogattone432]

I definitely don't think the US intelligence waited for Biden to announce a retaliation before having a look at that kind of stuff. There's quite a lot of analysts doing just that in their day-to-day jobs

[@KapitainZino]

Great content, great humour, thank you William! 👌

[@mikelittle5250]

Dude....your insightful views , even if one thing doesn't happen, you can see the future, and give us alternate realities like a crystal ball....Rock on!

[@jimschiltz5343]

Although speculative in presentation, it is always delightful to hear the unspoken parts aloud. Kudos. Great video.

[@Ununpentium]

Thanks for this - as always - great analysis! Learned a lot!

[@_gamma.]

Love all the little notes you add to the background

[@RonLWilson]

Excellent analysis!

[@fairgolfer]

Thanks for this perspective.

[@Behemoth138]

Geeat stuff as always

[@TheDevintomb]

I will say that I didn’t expect these counter points, and I am glad to have had myself corrected. 5 days is impressive

[@mark8664]

Wonderful presentation of the attack on American soldiers and our response. Thank you for the clear and not rushed presentation.

[@khanhnguyen-wc2wf]

Your info is so good!

[@AdeptAnalytic]

Thanks William, you made my weekend

[@JoeRogansForehead]

Must be a shitty weekend lol

[@bkinstler]

Your best video yet.

[@nevermindmeijustinjectedaw9988]

good point. no lines on maps needed

[@TheCleric42]

This time I learned something. Thanks.

[@hyper_lightning]

Great vid!

[@Elvis_Pond5]

I was alone with Arnold during a business trip and learned he has a bigger heart than most are aware of.

[@stateradio115]

It was interesting how the response from the U.S. happened right after the stock market closed to an all time high on Friday, exactly at 4pm. I'm sure it's just a coincidence but can't help but point it out.

[@enricogattone432]

Personal opinion? It wasn't. Don't think they'd cancel a strike to wait for the right stock market phase, but sure, all things equal, they'll pick the least disruptive moment for the stock market they can find.

[@Doomer_Optimist]

It's a coincidence

[@steve470]

Probably not the stock market, but it's a well-known trick in Washington to take anything that's likely to be unpopular, and make it known on a Friday afternoon. With the start of the weekend, there will be less media coverage, and fewer eyeballs on that media coverage. They do it all the time with releasing information - it's not absurd to think that that might have been one consideration (of many) when timing an attack like this.

[@Warszawski_Modernizm]

It is coincidence, yet still coincidentially kinda symbolic of USA, top off a good day with a great night xD

[@williamwchuang]

Also when the remains were returned.

[@marko11kram]

12 minutes I'll never get back; thanks

[@dawgwiddaglasses]

So you spent some more of your finite time to type up a comment?

[@no27design]

Ha, painting Bolt Action minis and seeing WS showing some here. Nice.

[@SRFriso94]

5:12 Hello Gerasimov, I see you there in the bottom left corner. Would prefer to see confirmation that he did eat that Storm Shadow in Crimea though.

[@thinkitthru2754]

great annalysis

[@reticenti6365]

Thanks!

[@Gametheory101]

Thank you!

[@jasonruzicka7954]

I love your videos the most

[@allegropiano2000]

A possible added benefit to using the B-1's is to learn what air defense networks and countermeasures are activated.

[@RyanLynch1]

brilliant explanation. i now want to read your paper about terrorists and money

[@lafeeshmeister]

Upon first viewing, it has taken me 3 minutes and 55 seconds to subscribe to this channel.

[@raymondbenedict]

5:12 random Valery Gerasimov sighting on lowerleft corner

[@skcocemag]

I wish I had no idea who Ron was.

[@pbinnj3250]

Same here.

[@pbinnj3250]

I’m thinking Ron’s wife also wishes she didn’t know him. Her White House wardrobe can no longer be returned. Amazon rules.

[@larrywest42]

The worst part is realizing there are thousands of adults who think he's a great guy. And, anticipating a response: they're not _all_ KKK members.

[@Hargrovius]

Many people can feel better now knowing that even IR professors misspell "ordnance" as "ordinance"

[@benjaminbaumgart3935]

the bottom line is... the B-1B is rad as hell

[@Juraj_H.]

What's up with Gerasimov at 5:11? :D

[@24587jack]

Ok that drop a comment part made me chuckle, how lovely that life must be haha.

[@davidbeare730]

Interesting. Thanks.

[@noahway13]

00:08 He slipped up and didn't nail the T sound at the end of -- ....righT now

[@makinginternetcontent]

I appreciate your level headed analysis, "element of surprise" is overhyped and treated like the only factor at play by a lot of people it seems. Ironically, the only surprise to the militants was which locations were targeted, not that a reprisal was coming.

[@chrispbacon3084]

That Gerasimov at the 5:12 mark?? LOL

[@jruedew]

Never heard of Ron DiSantos but Australia is great in the summer time

[@Alex-mp5xe]

So all the time?

[@jruedew]

Mostly yeah

[@nytrol2720]

My life is pretty alright thank you for asking

[@Fish-ub3wn]

William, there were 6 lancers, as counted from no of tgts and ordnance delivered.

[@AngusAbbott-qf8xm]

Interesting how the civilians can give away the hiding places almost by accident trying to escape from what is coming

[@oldmandoinghighkicksonlyin1368]

You mentioned the DoD archives... Is that where you source your public domain images? If so, very cool.

[@Gametheory101]

Yes, basically every photo of the US military in my videos comes from the DoD archives.

[@allo-other]

Related to this topic: Beginning with the (accurate) warnings that Ruscia intended to invade Ukraine, I have noticed an uptick in the willingness of intelligence agencies to interact directly with the media (eg "Inside the secret world of defence intelligence | Sitrep podcast"). I assume that there is method behind this apparently tactical reduction in secrecy. ........ ????

[@bigayysfromspace2804]

5:12 is that Shoigu or Gerasimov?

[@vladgaraba4022]

@Gametheory101 please make a video about Desantis and American elections. I think it would be very interesting to see your calculations on that topic.

[@1967MLP]

very good

[@OldSloGuy]

A thoughtful video, well presented. A simple technique is to monitor the location of cell phones in a village or compound. Many remote areas are tribal or even familiar in nature, so it is possible that the village is going to cousin Abdul's wedding. In larger villages, not everyone is a relative and there is a question of who gets sent to "safety' and who stays behind. This separation is likely to increase phone usage as family members check on each other. The pattern here is what gets analyzed. It is unlikely that the conversations are monitored, it is the phones frequency of use and location that is of statistical interest.

[@adwaitnaravane5285]

Dark lord brandon and his ways are beyond our mortal minds.

[@homebrandrules]

v.insightful.

[@RobFeldkamp]

I have heard of MR de Santis. But i am very glad i do not have to choose between those ''canditates''.

[@kenslattery4466]

Feel for you brother, Oz watcher

[@boufns8]

From Texas with love.

[@mjeffn2]

I heard a lot of praise and a lot criticism based on the things you mention. I don’t have any background in any of this stuff, but deeply appreciate the complete lack of beer-can bravado in Biden’s speech and the Biden administration’s response. The response was disciplined, well conceived, and effective.

[@shorewall]

You can argue whether it was even a response. As this video showed, we are already bombing these guys. I think the statement, even if lacking beer can bravado, was still meant for political theater, for domestic audiences who don't know that we are aggressing in the area. Americans don't want to be fighting in the ME, so the US gov is operating in secrecy. So when the report comes out that 3 US soldiers were killed, people think it was unprovoked, not being told that we are basically at war in the area with these non-state actors. Even though I had heard about the attack and the response, this video is the first I'd heard of the ongoing strikes by the US in the area. So Biden lets Americans know that we're gonna respond, in order to appear strong. And then we engage in an arbitrary show of force, in an ongoing conflict. Imagine telling the people you are bombing, "Because you dared to bomb us back, now we are gonna bomb you twice as hard!" It's arbitrary, unless it is to appear strong to domestic audiences.

[@isaacmcmanus3666]

I couldn't recognise who it was as I'm on my mobile, and have poor connection; but there was someone in the corner at 5:11

[@JimRFF]

5:10 apparently Gerasimov also likes "diving into" recent history... or at least the bottom of the frame xD

[@quedtion_marks_kirby_modding]

What is a ron and how does he desantis?

[@pbinnj3250]

1. Great video. 2. Any idea why we used B-1 bombers from Texas? (Two part, why B-1? Why Texas?)

[@dancingferret6654]

Efficiency. Apparently a large number of targets were hit, to the point that it may have depleted a decent chunk of the Navy's cruise missile stock in the area, not to mention that a bomb is vastly cheaper than a missile. Naval VLS (vertical launch systems) can't be reloaded at sea, so once a ship's missiles are depleted they have to return to port. Also, they need to carry a wide variety of missiles for different purposes, so they will only have so many Tomahawks available. Tomahawks are nice because you can get one on target really quickly and without risking a human crew, but they are 10 times the cost of a bomb and have the aforementioned logistics issues. If you aren't pressed for time, a bomber is far better, as they can carry much more ordinance, have faster turnaround times, and are more flexible in what bombs / ordnance they can bring (while ships leave port with whatever they have, and have to return to port to refit if needed). They also can do BDA (battle damage assessment) and even engage targets of opportunity if the airspace is clear enough for them to loiter. Also, if you launch a bomber, and the situation changes and you decide not to engage the target, you just call the bomber back. If you launch a Tomahawk, you can self-destruct it or re-task it to another target, but you won't be able to bring it back to the ship and stuff it back into its VLS cell. The US bomber fleet is why many who know aren't super concerned about the draw Ukraine is making on Western artillery stocks. If the US got directly involved in Ukraine, within a week or two Russian air defenses would be knocked out. Once that happens the Air Force would simply bomb everything that moves. By the time Army artillery got in theater, there would be hardly anything left for them to do. EDIT: Most US Bombers are based in the mainland US or in places like Guam or Diego Garcia for force protection reasons. The same reason why Russia has moved most of its bombers far from Ukraine. The thing is, the Air Force's air refueling capability means this doesn't meaningfully limit where they can hit, however, so running missions from the mainland US isn't actually that difficult. A squadron from Texas was chosen probably because it was simply their turn for a mission, or it may have been they wanted to use specific ordinance that was available there, or maybe it was just to flex on Russia and China to remind them that we could do it.

[@ClemensKatzer]

@@dancingferret6654 Very informative, thank you!

[@PBTexasBoy]

@@dancingferret6654great comment

[@dgurevich1]

3:50 You know what's worse than being stuck in the US and having to follow American politics? Being stuck outside the US and having to follow American politics because the survival of your country depends on said politics.

[@Joaquin546]

Yeah good luck with that

[@PeterMuskrat6968]

Yeah man, shit sucks. You will always have my support, and the support of millions upon millions of Americans.

[@Chiller11]

There are also, I suppose, the local politics that drive the public announcement of a reprisal attack. The leader is required to empathize with the casualties and to promise retribution in order to appear strong and effective.

[@tigertickles6758]

William Spaniel, I see, I like

[@xelaxander]

6:06 Hah, our local newspaper is famous. I'd recognize Süddeutsche Zeitung from a mile away.

[@starhalv2427]

My biggest fear right now is USA withdrawing from helping Taiwan, South Korea and/or Ukraine. Especially Ukraine, since that's most likely and Ukraine is my neighbor.

[@Joaquin546]

None of that will happen l

[@paranoiaproductions1221]

​@@Joaquin546the US could withdraw from Ukraine. South Korea and Taiwan are a lot less likely due to their strategic importance.

[@Joaquin546]

@@paranoiaproductions1221 Nah those troops are their for an experience and any attack on them would be an instant declaration of war on the aggressor.

[@kuidaorekitchen5850]

Much like when I was in Iraq in the 2000's this is the same thing, where I think it is not so much of an intel problem rather than a show of force with advanced warning to not cause too many casualties. Three American soldiers are worth a lot more, but an agreed upon retaliation is almost always done before these types of strikes.

[@SurGoose]

Nice

[@kleinweichkleinweich]

Where is Gerassimov? 5:12

[@comprehensiblehorrors]

i'm actually really concerned about us presidential election politics but i am, in fact, very glad to be able to live a life where i dont need to think about ronald desantis

[@Grouse2275]

California better?🤣

[@comprehensiblehorrors]

@@Grouse2275 i hear the climate is good but i like my universal healthcare

[@andmos1001]

I’m incredibly happy for not having political discussions on wether or not the candidates is too old for the job, mentally capable, and if the candidates did an insurrection or not

[@gideonmele1556]

Sometimes the message sent is more devastating than a surprise attack. It’s like an altered gunboat diplomacy: everyone knows the power and a deadline sets a clock (and thus heightens stress). It’s not masterful strategy but it does send a message about future statements and reminds of the capability. Imagine a sucker punch vs a guy who says ‘I will give you a 30 second head start.’

[@shorewall]

I think it is more to save face. The US gov and military are trying to keep their ongoing ops in the ME hush hush, since Americans don't want to be involved in any more wars over there. So when a report comes out that 3 US soldiers were killed, people think it was unprovoked. This video was the first I heard that we were bombing targets over there already. So Biden comes out like, "how dare you attack our boys, we are gonna get our just revenge," even though it is tit for tat in a warzone. US is gonna try as much as they can to operate without letting the public know, since both sides of Americans are focused on internal politics and want to be isolationist.

[@gimme4bucks]

Why is there a tiny Gerasimov at the 5:12 mark?

[@steve470]

Why would there not be a tiny Gerasimov at the 5:12 mark?

[@robbadMC]

3:49 The Finnish Pres Election is in its final days, and yesterday I met one of the candidates (Pekka Haavisto) in my city square. People were taking pictures and there was a cop car out of the view. I saw 2-3 Guards and went up to the guy and took a photo with him. Ahh, to not be in ’Murica

[@alikaostermiller]

We did tried this in the GWOT. The militants just threatened and held them hostage if they were to run.

[@stevenjohns-savage7024]

Yeah actions hurts louder than words 😊

[@ivancho5854]

Something that I'd never noticed before: I know that Biden gets a lot of criticism because of his age, but damn, he is an incredibly smartly dressed man. Look at the images in this video, talk about immaculately put together. 👌 (Ok. I made my point, now let the underwear jokes, etc, commence.) Sorry William, great video incidentally. 😉👍

[@shorewall]

I don't think he dresses himself.

[@uss-dh7909]

I won't compare the current resident, but consider this, I have a car sitting in the driveway under a shelter. No accidents, I avoid potholes if able, bird droppings always get treated as soon as they're noticed, and I always park at the far end of the parking lot (but somehow I still get door dings?). Put this car on a lift, the whole underside is rust. This is what you get after years of salty midwest winters.

[@ivancho5854]

@@uss-dh7909 Oh yea, I hear you. If you've looked after yourself and with modern medicine people do very well up to about 80, after that it's a rapid decline for all but a handful. Being president is a very demanding job. I'm glad that I don't have to do it. Both Biden and Trump should let go and hand the reigns on to someone younger, though they have to be wise too. All the best.

[@frog8220]

Who's the guy at 5:12?

[@IGhengisKhanI]

is the "where is gerasimov" thing still going? found him ^^

[@chairde]

Nothing is ever what it appears to be. Superpowers don’t have to win wars but only disrupt their enemies.