Why Russia's Offensive Could Be Self-Defeating

  Рет қаралды 599,375

William Spaniel

William Spaniel

Күн бұрын

Check out my book "How Ukraine Survived": amzn.to/47gnlEf. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)
For the past few months, Russia has dictated the war's pace on the ground. Although things are currently going well for Moscow, there remains the possibility that further offensive action could be self-defeating---it may only trigger a large-scale backlash from the West. If that seems implausible, we have already experienced it once in the war going the other way. Back in September 2022, Ukraine's advances induced Russia to mobilize, which is how we arrived at the current situation. Will we see another Catch-22 in action?
0:00 A No-Win Situation for Russia?
1:17 The War's Current Position
2:36 What Is Russia's Endgame?
6:06 Flashback: Ukraine's Catch-22
8:39 Russia's Current Catch-22
15:41 Will We See the Catch-22?
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
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By mrs.gov.ua:
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By Army Inform
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By Duma.ru:
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By Kremlin.ru:
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Пікірлер: 2 100
@philupson4561
@philupson4561 2 ай бұрын
Before I went on submarines they put us through rigorous psychological scrutiny to make sure we were really f-n crazy before we went to sea to sink.
@Mark5mith
@Mark5mith 2 ай бұрын
Aye, submariners are definitely a breed to themselves, it's all shits n giggles till somebody giggles n shits.
@saparotrob7888
@saparotrob7888 2 ай бұрын
I appreciate and thank you for putting it on the line for us. I have no problem with paying for a pay raise for our folks in service.
@froghermit9852
@froghermit9852 2 ай бұрын
Did u mean to say they put you through psychological scrutiny to make sure you "weren't crazy" or am I missing the joke?
@Mark5mith
@Mark5mith 2 ай бұрын
@@froghermit9852 yes, and yes.
@13lueBomber
@13lueBomber 2 ай бұрын
Lmao, that made me laugh, thank you. *(edited)* KZbin deleted *THIS* comment for whatever reason.
@ssesf
@ssesf 2 ай бұрын
I came across a real catch-22, when I was in Sao Tome helping a Japanese couple, who didn't speak Portuguese. They wanted to buy airplane tickets for their next destination, Angola, but had to get visas first. They couldn't get visas before they'd bought tickets.
@GojiMet86
@GojiMet86 2 ай бұрын
Was it ever resolved? I also wonder if they were allowed to obtain visas in Japan first, but if they couldn't......
@AP-qs2zf
@AP-qs2zf 2 ай бұрын
Who gives a shit about your flight 😂
@andrewallen9993
@andrewallen9993 2 ай бұрын
That sounds like something organised by a competent African government.
@flaviomongiovi8105
@flaviomongiovi8105 2 ай бұрын
France's Kafkaesque bureaucracy: To get a house you need a job To get a job you need a bank account To get a bank account you need a house
@Psiros
@Psiros 2 ай бұрын
Sad when countries do this, especially to Japanese citizens. Japanese tend to widely share their vacation experiences. Bad experiences will highly discourage many to bother to travel to those destinations.
@wppz7691
@wppz7691 2 ай бұрын
It’s astonishing that just the entire time 1,500 Russian soldiers are just sitting right in their Barracks in Transnistria the entire time
@heyho4770
@heyho4770 2 ай бұрын
Safest Job in the Russian Army right now
@geoffgill5334
@geoffgill5334 2 ай бұрын
Guessing that those are some happy troops
@kalinmir
@kalinmir 2 ай бұрын
MENACINGLY!
@savvasgamingchannel5062
@savvasgamingchannel5062 2 ай бұрын
Transnistria is too small to be worth bothering about nor worth worrying about.@@kalinmir
@bogard36
@bogard36 2 ай бұрын
Their time will come.
@user-vh1qp1uz2d
@user-vh1qp1uz2d 2 ай бұрын
Saw a sketch today of a large red triangle drawn around Crimea and surrounding sea with the label, "the Budanov triangle" where lots of planes and ships are lost.
@lemerdtool
@lemerdtool 2 ай бұрын
First rule of the Budanov triangle is you don't talk about the Budanov triangle
@protorhinocerator142
@protorhinocerator142 2 ай бұрын
@@lemerdtool There are three rules of the Budanov triangle. The other two rules are secret.
@user-vh1qp1uz2d
@user-vh1qp1uz2d 2 ай бұрын
@@lemerdtool In other words, don't tell the Germans.
@meteorknight999
@meteorknight999 2 ай бұрын
Is that what you call failure to take back land of ukr ? Simping for an old ass dude that kill journalists
@Nauda999
@Nauda999 2 ай бұрын
It's all fun and games, but the drones are built by US and UK, operated by their out of uniform personnel, using Starlink, and information from MQ-9 Reaper drones and spy satellites, without all of that there is no Budanov triangle, and on top of that Russia will use this drone threat to justify taking Odessa, or demand it in any negotiations.
@craigmenke7187
@craigmenke7187 2 ай бұрын
Just tossing this out there, part of the production mismatch is that the war being fought in Ukraine is being fought by two Soviet style militaries. For a variety of reasons, the Ukrainians (like the Russians) are overwhelimingly reliant on artillery fires to achieve victory on the battlefield. The US and other NATO countries are not well suited to provision this kind of fighting because so much of the firepower that NATO style militaries bring to bear on their enemies is delivered by aircraft and not by heavy guns. If you compare the Russian and NATO defense industrial bases, you can clearly see this disparity. Estimates do vary but as a conservative guess the Russians can probably manufacture at least 2 million main caliber artillery shells per year. That's a lot more shells than NATO is producing. Inversely, the US by itself built 147 F-35 aircraft in 2022. For comparison, that's about the same number of Su-34's Russia has built since serial production began a decade ago. I could point to similar examples with things like cruise missiles. It's not wrong to point out that "just in time" manufacturing deliberately economized by prioritizing efficiency and cut costs by cutting back on excess capacity. However it is also very important to acknowledge that a concurrent challenge is that NATO countries are trying to resource a country whose military doctrine, structure, and operational requirements are very different from the kind of war that NATO defense manufacturing is designed to sustain. Disclaimer: I am not saying that NATO countries do not use artillery or that Soviet style militaries do not use aircraft, obviously they do. Of course I am also not saying that artillery fires and air strikes are always interchangeable, some targets are meant for artillery and others are meant for air strikes. My point is simply that the Ukrainians (by doctrine and by force of necessity) do not rely on air power in the way that NATO countries do, and indirect fires from artillery is one of the things they use to pick up the slack. So they need a lot more artillery than a NATO country would, hence the mismatch in Ukraine's requirements relative to NATO's defense industrial base.
@DJ1573
@DJ1573 2 ай бұрын
Good analysis 👌
@user-bf7ix7fq3d
@user-bf7ix7fq3d 2 ай бұрын
And you didn't think that the United States focuses on aviation because a) they are on another continent, b) their doctrine has developed since the Second World War. They perfectly demonstrated the capabilities of strategic aviation against Japan, but at the same time they sucked against Vietnam, armed with Soviet air defense systems and Soviet interceptors. It seems to me that it's like with tanks. Anti-tank and air defense systems are now much cheaper and very advanced, which makes the use of tanks and aircraft on the battlefield economically impractical. Although tanks and planes are needed, there is no way without them. We must also remember that all world wars were won not by aviation, but on the ground.
@craigmenke7187
@craigmenke7187 2 ай бұрын
@@user-bf7ix7fq3d So a couple of things, to unpack here. As the disclaimer, I think you're completely wrong but I intend no disrespect. Intelligent people can disagree. 1) US emphasis on aviation is not really attributable to the fact that the US is on another continent. Pretty much with the exception of strategic bombers like the B-1 and B-2, the US operates the vast majority of its aircraft (fixed and rotary wing) from in-theater bases or ships. When a Marine Expeditionary Unit heads into the Arabian Sea, its air cover is not flying from Texas. US emphasis on air power has historically been driven by casualty aversion and not by geography. Geography plays a much more prominent role in the US emphasis on sea power, but at this time I am talking about air power. The US projects extensive air power far beyond its own territory, but it usually does this by either using in-theater airfields or by bringing its own airfields in the form of aircraft carriers. 2) The US did not "suck" against Vietnam. What actually happened was that US forces flying against North Vietnam were subjected to a mind bogglingly vast array of asinine restrictions. For example, US forces were prohibited from bombing North Vietnamese SAM sites that were still under construction and spent years waiting for permission to bomb the principal airbase of the NVAF. US air power was greatly hamstrung by moronic politicians in Washington DC micromanaging the conduct of air operations and imposing idiotic restrictions on what targets could be attacked and under what circumstances as well as which routes could be used for ingress/egress and pre-announced "bombing pauses" where the US would bomb North Vietnam and then state exactly when it would stop and when it would resume after it had stopped. The US inflicted significant damage on the North Vietnamese even in spite of the utterly stupid politicians. So while it is true that the US did not defeat North Vietnam with strategic air power, it is hardly a good faith example of what can and cannot be achieved with air power because of the political context. 3) Saying that WWII "was won on the ground" is a true statement but it is also obtuse to the point of meaninglessness. Humans live on land, so yes obviously the war was won on land. However such a statement risks forgetting that achieving victory at sea and in the sky were unavoidable precursors to winning the war on land. With the exception of the Soviet Union, every major belligerent power in WWII prioritized the majority of their industrial production on air and sea weaponry. As for the USSR, they managed to remain in the war largely because of what they received from the Western Allies... by sea. The Soviet war economy was heavily dependent on raw materials and finished goods from the West to compensate for the loss of Ukraine (the most heavily industrialized part of the USSR in 1941 which fell to the Axis and was not retaken until well into 1944). So yes, the war was won on the ground. However winning at sea and in the sky needed to happen before the war on land could be won. Events on land are dictated by events at sea and in the sky in most modern conflicts. Obvious example of this is Desert Storm in 1991: yes, the US and Coalition forces achieved a massive victory on the ground. However those ground operations were preceded by a months long buildup of forces in Saudi Arabia that could only happen thanks to sealift, and a weeks long aviation campaign to cripple Iraqi logistics and attrit combat units. This of course doesn't downplay the significance of events on the ground, it is simply a recognition that the western way of war is about winning very quickly because western countries are very averse to casualties. In order to win quickly, you need to win at sea and in the sky before you commit the bulk of your forces to the fight on the ground. 4) To paraphrase Mark Twain, the death of the tank is greatly exaggerated. The idea that relatively cheap anti tank weaponry has rendered the tank obsolete is an idea that has literally been cropping up since the 1950's. In recent times, it is really the Russian experience in Ukraine that has led many to dust of the time honored assertion that the tank is dead. In reality, many of Russia's tank losses are due to Russia being dumb and not using their tanks correctly. Yes, in wartime losses are inevitable but Russian mistakes are a huge factor in dictating why Russia has lost so many tanks. Some people make similar statements about how the proliferation of SAMs and MANPADS means the death of the Helicopter and/or the fighter jet. Such pronouncements are at least as wrong as the claims about the death of the tank. The US has demonstrated on several occasions how to quickly and effectively suppress and destroy an enemy air defense system. Severe Russian aviation losses in Ukraine are more indicative of ineptitude and inadequacy on the part of Russian leadership than of the inherent limitations of Russian aircraft (or aircraft more broadly).
@user-bf7ix7fq3d
@user-bf7ix7fq3d 2 ай бұрын
@@craigmenke7187 1. One might think that any other state wants more combat losses. It just happened historically that the United States could afford such an expensive and numerous air force, while other countries could not. 2. Can you refer to the sources of such information? Because it all looks like nonsense. It is known how Vietnamese peaceful villages were bombed, but for some reason it was forbidden to bomb military facilities under construction. About the dementia of politicians and the military from any side - this is your personal subjective opinion. 3. And here you are treading on dangerous ground. First of all, I do not belittle American aid to the Soviet Union, nor the valor and sacrifice of all Allied soldiers during World War II. But! The Wehrmacht suffered major defeats in 1941-1942, even before significant arms shipments from the United States. The Battle of Moscow and Stalingrad were defeated by the force of Soviet weapons. You can easily check what, in what quantities and when was sent from outside to the Soviet Union. And you can also discover for yourself that the Union also supplied rare resources to the allies. Soviet industry before the war (!!!) was prepared for evacuation to the rear. The famous UralVagonZavod is also the old Kharkov Plant. And there were hundreds and thousands of such evacuations. The Soviet industry demanded for itself mainly not equipment, but resources. You can easily verify by checking how much each major participating country has produced in the second world war. In terms of industrial production for the army and the Air Force, the USSR was inferior only to the United States, and even then not on all counts. And in general, 80% of the Wehrmacht was destroyed on the Eastern Front. And Germany, despite the fact that it was subjected to monstrous bombardments, lost the growth rate of its industry only when the ground forces occupied significant of its territories and resource bases. 4. I did not say that tanks with airplanes are not needed. I said that they have become less profitable for the economy on the battlefield. The military still needs them. About incompetence and inadequacy - ok. But the States in Korea and Vietnam were also inept and inadequate, where their modern aviation at that time was opposed by modern air defense and Soviet aviation. The losses on both sides were comparable. Who was not able and incompetent here? The big question. Do not underestimate your potential opponent. Such arrogance can hide an incorrect assessment of the situation, and behind this lies a bitter reckoning and defeat. This lesson has been for us since time immemorial, and its embodiment is cyclically repeated. Russia in the middle of the XIX century, France and Germany in the XX, etc. The USA also made a similar mistake. And you make the same mistake again, believing that everyone is stupid, and the United States is the best and most advanced of all. This has not been the case for a long time.
@dimas3829
@dimas3829 2 ай бұрын
Great point. I'd also add that it plays it's role in the training of troops too. Many Ukrainian brigades were formed in NATO countries and went through the western training only to find out on the battlefield itself that the training tthey went through is absolutely useless and doesnt cover nor their own military doctrine, not the opposite side's. Like the infamous line "Germans taught us that if there is a minefield - we must go around it". Long story short, the best training Ukrainians could get is from veteran Ukrainians themselves, but there is a two-fold problem there. Firstly, the injured veterans are mostly discarded as useless trash (they even have troubles finding a civilian job since the ongoing rumor that they all have PTSD and could go insane at any moment) instead of being actively used as instructors. Secondly, Ukraine is extremely corrupt and money sent towards the goal of training and equipment mysteriously fade into pockets of local elites. Finally, I'd add up that Russia's reserves are not alone on their side of the conflict - they are heavily supplied by Iran and North Korea who hoarded their own warehouses in preparation to conflict with the west. (And while China isn't directly supplying Russia itself - it sends it's own artillery rounds to North Korea so such could replace the ammo they sent to Russia)
@dison1172
@dison1172 2 ай бұрын
I think Covid showed us that Just in Time has major drawbacks
@dillonhillier
@dillonhillier 2 ай бұрын
And that people will believe just about anything, no matter what the data says.
@cwastoinand
@cwastoinand 2 ай бұрын
I remember talking about the weakness in school 18 years ago and they said i was a fool it would always work..
@dx-ek4vr
@dx-ek4vr 2 ай бұрын
Just in Time was always great for short-term profits where the world never changes. Not so much in the long term in a world that has the tendency to change
@-morrow
@-morrow 2 ай бұрын
​@@dillonhillier "people" will believe well delievered anecdotes. it is up to the communicators to transform the data into well delivered anecdotes.
@hamjudo
@hamjudo 2 ай бұрын
Toyota has since dropped the phrase entirely. Back in the day, American companies "optimized" out key features while they were copying Toyota. Toyota had already suffered some painful supply chain failures. They added back in inventory requirements for parts. Particularly those parts that had long lead times and sole sources. They audited their suppliers supply chain to look for potential failures.
@hoolio5659
@hoolio5659 2 ай бұрын
Can i just mention how much i appreciate the moment William said "Time" the moment Putin looked at his watch at 17:41? I love subtle moments like this and how much they add to the vibe around your videos.
@meteorknight999
@meteorknight999 2 ай бұрын
With so much losing for ukr you only have moments like these to love must be hard
@Homer-OJ-Simpson
@Homer-OJ-Simpson 2 ай бұрын
@@meteorknight999yeah, Russia has casualties of over 300,000..more than 50% more than Ukraine and possible 100% more. That’s “winning”, I guess
@meteorknight999
@meteorknight999 2 ай бұрын
@@Homer-OJ-Simpson 300000 was the ukrn number used by us arpund 1 year ago. The one getting jet bombed is ukrn, ukrn has himars but only one region. Its 500k to 600k for ukrn
@Homer-OJ-Simpson
@Homer-OJ-Simpson 2 ай бұрын
@@meteorknight999 I'ts 500k-600k for ukm says the Russian Moscow worker. LOL, what's your source? Almost all non Russian estimates have Russia with far more casualities because they are sending troops to out to a meat grinder with no care for their lives. What's your source on your stats? GO ahead, dare you.
@adamndirtyape
@adamndirtyape 2 ай бұрын
I was in the Canadian infantry in the early 80s and even then we were told we had maybe 30 days worth of ammunition stockpiled on the theory that a modern war would be so fast and so destructive that any conceivable conflict with near-peer powers like The Warsaw Pact vs NATO wouldn't last much longer than that. You had to fight with what you had because it would be over before any significant supply chain could be established to feed more resources into the conflict. You would rely on prepositioned depots of equipment and supplies in anticipated conflict zones and there would be an airbridge and seabridge from the USA (and Canada) to get more troops, equipment, and supplies to Europe but these too were only for what was at hand. It seemed incredibly short-sighted then, especially when we knew Russia was stockpiling years and years' worth of guns, tanks, artillery, and shells to sustain a war (stocks that they are still using now in Ukraine). But the Russians weren't in the grip of supply-side management mania and just-in-time business theories that had infected Western militaries (partly because many generals thought more like business executives than soldiers, and in fact would become executives when they left the army). Oh, and we outsourced key industries like ironmaking and other core industries needed to make arms to countries that would probably be our enemies at some point. The idea of keeping those at home even if they weren't profitable by subsidizing them because of their key strategic role wasn't even on the table. And so we have arrived at the point where we are reaping the bitter fruit of all the poison seeds planted by poor defense decision-making. But all is not lost, as long as Western countries do in fact wake up and change course.
@enriqueperezarce5485
@enriqueperezarce5485 2 ай бұрын
Oh it’s a mistake but not a fatal one, western economies can definitely ramp up military production, they are just super strong and bulky so it may take a while but once it does, in a war attrition it’s basically ggs for the Russians
@adamndirtyape
@adamndirtyape 2 ай бұрын
@@enriqueperezarce5485 Exactly. If the Russian army had been as powerful as people thought they were then there would be no discussion about supplying Ukraine long-term. That 30-day window for war would have in fact played out. But it's clear now that a pivot to war production is worth doing and can be done relatively quickly if it is handled with urgency like it was during WWII. I hope Western countries realize that such a changeover to being able to produce key war supplies will benefit them too in the long run, so perhaps the political will to make the changes will be there and not be side-tracked by partisan bickering. If nothing else, the Ukraine war has laid bare the deficiencies in Western ideas about how to equip, supply, and fight a large-scale modern war and has reminded strategic thinkers that the side that wins is usually the one with the best logistics, a concept that should be deeply rooted any professional military thinking and yet someone almost got forgotten.
@notastone4832
@notastone4832 2 ай бұрын
@@adamndirtyape you clearly dont work in manufacturing.. if you understood how much it would cost to "ramp up" to a wartime economy you wouldnt even suggest such things.. unless you want rioters to go fucking insane when they find out the government is spending whatever future we had left.. over a war in europe.
@craigmenke7187
@craigmenke7187 2 ай бұрын
Just pointing out that the disparity you're talking about is completely inverted if you look at things like ships and aircraft. The US by itself produces about as many fighter aircraft in a year as Russia does in a decade. The F-35 is the biggest item on that list but the F-15 and F-16 production lines never closed, as the US maintains a brisk arms export business. Since WWII the US, UK, and other western powers have as a general rule consciously made the decision to prioritize air and sea power over land power, while the Soviets prioritized land power. As a result we can see how Russia has enormous capacity to produce artillery shells, and because the war in Ukraine is predominantly a land war the disparity is on full display. However I'd say that a lot of the discussion about the "inadequacy" of NATO countries defense production is missing the context that the Ukrainians are fighting this war that is very different from the one that NATO countries are prepared for. Aircraft is an obvious example of one such key difference. Ukraine has a few dozen jets, all of which are soviet vintage older versions of what the Russians are flying. Basically, Ukraine is facing an adversary that enjoys a clear quantitative and qualitative advantage in terms of aircraft (aircrew is perhaps a different story, but this discussion is about production not training). There are a lot of targets on the Russian side which, if they were fighting NATO, would be getting hit by aircraft. I am hardly disparaging the Ukrainians, however it is in my opinion inaccurate to project Ukrainian requirements for war material onto NATO with Ukraine's experience being demonstrative of the scenario NATO would find itself in.
@kingace6186
@kingace6186 2 ай бұрын
This^ is how to NOT run a military.
@toober1066
@toober1066 2 ай бұрын
These days it's great just to hear someone speak with such thoughtful eloquence. It' almost ASMR except for the topic. Thanks.
@christopherl4249
@christopherl4249 2 ай бұрын
Too bad this guy has been dead wrong so many times. Here are some past videos from this channel: “How Ukraine’s Spring Offensive Could end the War” (10 months ago) Ukraine never even came close to its objectives; their offensive was defeated at a huge cost of men and material (that ultimately weakened them). “Ukrainian Breakthrough; the Counter-attack Beginning” (8 months ago) Again, totally failed. “Himars and Storm Shadow; Ukraine’s Once and Future MVP” The lack of news about HIMARs a few months after such a big deal was made about them speaks to their limited effectiveness. Today even the MSM and some US politicians are reluctantly admitting that Ukraine is losing. Want the truth from an impeccable source. Try Col. Daniel Davis. “Ukraine is now a Lost Cause” kzbin.info/www/bejne/ZoLUpqJvnrV0gLs First I want to say that Daniel Davis is definitely NOT sympathetic with Putin or Russia (more sympathetic to Ukraine for sure); however, this does not stop him from reporting the truth. Col. Daniel Davis has been spot on. Last February (2023) Col. Davis wrote an article explaining why western wonder weapons would not be the magic bullet for Ukraine and (before being launched) he predicted that the long awaited Ukrainian offensive would fail. In 2011, Davis was a whistle blower about how badly things were going in Afghanistan when US generals in charge were lying through their teeth. He has experience, success in the field, fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, is accurate, and honest. www.youtube.com/@DanielDavisDeepDive
@halofanjames5424
@halofanjames5424 2 ай бұрын
You and Perun I actively anticipate for the uploads on the conflict adds a lot of context possible perspectives and reasonings
@13thmistral
@13thmistral 2 ай бұрын
Same here. My 2 favorit uploaders on this kind of subjects. I love their rational mindset in combination with their humor.
@dmcg247
@dmcg247 2 ай бұрын
Add some Antony Beevor
@Jason-gq8fo
@Jason-gq8fo 2 ай бұрын
Don’t forget Anders puck!
@Jason-gq8fo
@Jason-gq8fo 2 ай бұрын
Don’t forget Anders puck!
@teaser6089
@teaser6089 2 ай бұрын
Same
@jannekiljunen6784
@jannekiljunen6784 2 ай бұрын
Reserve military equipment and capacity almost directly translates to political power in foreign relations. In case it is you who is not the aggressor then you go to war with the military you have, not the military you want. Just-in-time is a good concept when you can predict the demand and there's plans and resources ready to ramp up when necessary. In practice this never works as intended, there's never enough foresight to start ramping up when it is needed and demand in a major war always surprises (like winter here in Finland always surprises drivers, every year without fail).
@christiandauz3742
@christiandauz3742 2 ай бұрын
Russia doesn't really have reserves anymore of men and material This is Putin's last war
@paulbedichek5177
@paulbedichek5177 2 ай бұрын
Finland is prepared for war with Russia,at any time.
@benjaminfranklin3458
@benjaminfranklin3458 2 ай бұрын
All nations should be able to supply themselves and have some amout of ‘insurance’ on hand I will 100% agree with that for the foreseeable future. But what all nations really should work towards is to have as little ‘insurance’ on hand as possible and being able to talk about our problems. The diplomatic best case scenario is that all of earth eventually unites under one banner and eventually beginning to move beyond earth. Humanities best interest in the long run is honestly to just learn all there is in the universe, and evolve to a stage where we use up as few resources as possible while being indestructible.- but that will for now also be or absolute end stage.
@bjornsvalling1066
@bjornsvalling1066 2 ай бұрын
It's always a pleasure to listen to your well narrated videos, Professor Spaniel!
@User-bruser891
@User-bruser891 2 ай бұрын
It is AI-narrated
@robertolang9684
@robertolang9684 2 ай бұрын
kzbin.info/www/bejne/gIXJn4arYsx2rK8
@LevitatingCups
@LevitatingCups 2 ай бұрын
I always like the plug in for the books. You can see it coming but, its always in a fun way. Not that its a funny subject.
@PH_777
@PH_777 2 ай бұрын
Keep this video up please, will be fun to re watch it in a year or so.
@sexualtyrannosaurus8443
@sexualtyrannosaurus8443 2 ай бұрын
Another great video this is one of my favorite channels thanks keep it up buddy
@Ununpentium
@Ununpentium 2 ай бұрын
So many interesting insights - Thank you! Always enjoy your videos!
@GojiMet86
@GojiMet86 2 ай бұрын
Even when there are only arrow, and no lines on maps, there will always be lines in my heart.......map :) EDIT: 17:21 *GASP* Lines on map!!!
@wooddogg8
@wooddogg8 2 ай бұрын
Good solid content,, just one small complaint... Wish you had replaced some of the Biden pics with Mike Johnson when discussing Americas contribution to the war. Biden isn't indecisive. Johnson is the hold-up. I'm afraid he isn't indecisive either, rather, firmly in Putin's pocket.
@everss02
@everss02 2 ай бұрын
Americans are done laundering our money in Ukraine for the CIA/NATO's war
@tonyruggz4487
@tonyruggz4487 2 ай бұрын
I don't consider myself to be illiterate but somehow your analysis at some point in every post seems to be above my pay grade. To me somehow you are the fuckin man when I can keep up with you. Probably buy one of your books just to support you. You my friend are special.
@velisvideos6208
@velisvideos6208 2 ай бұрын
The biggest problem for the West is lack of strategy. What is the goal? Ukraine has huge problems as well. In spite of their innovative use of drones and special operations. They still aren't able to mobilize sufficient manpower, training of the troops is insufficient, operational planning clearly has much room for improvement etc. Not to mention financial problems. It's about time we get serious about this war...
@pseudomino3
@pseudomino3 2 ай бұрын
Last year we could see much anticipation about the Ukrainian spring offensive, which gave Russians time to prepare because they already knew where Ukraine was going to attack. Is it possible that Ukraine learned from this error and is now hiding better its plans? Something like "pretending to be weaker"?
@sircatangry5864
@sircatangry5864 2 ай бұрын
Ukraine definitely doing this. Like, even state media pushes narrative this depressive narrative of "Everything is lost, it is our last stand" Despite huge success of Ukrainian fleet and airfleet.
@Wraith8s
@Wraith8s 2 ай бұрын
Come on dude😂
@stevealba56
@stevealba56 2 ай бұрын
They are very effective in "pretending" to be weaker so that it really seems to be true.....
@Sphere723
@Sphere723 2 ай бұрын
You can look at open source stuff and see that the Ukrainians were definitely trying to refit a group of elite units over the winter while trying to form up 5 new Mechanized brigades. Non-public reporting says Zelensky wants an offensive this summer, and the assumption is these units would be the ones to do it. But also, Zelensky complained about new units lacking vehicles (presumably the new Mechanized brigades) and the 3AB and 47th (two of Ukraines best units) were deployed to Andiivka to stop the Russian advance. So they are no longer fresh. So makes an offensive seem less likely. My educated guess is Ukraine will mainly be on the defensive this year, but when/if new 155mm shells show up in bulk, and F-16's become operational, they will pick and choose a couple spots to try out mini-offensives. Maybe expand the bridgehead in Kherson, or push a little more towards Tokmak. But there will be nothing on the scale of Summer 2023.
@TheIndianaGeoff
@TheIndianaGeoff 2 ай бұрын
At some point, if Ukraine want's to achieve it's stated goals, it has to stop pretending to be weak.
@neolithictransitrevolution427
@neolithictransitrevolution427 2 ай бұрын
I'd be very interested in a video dedicated to MRAPs. These vehicles were considered basically useless, built for IED attacked in the middle east insurgencies, and donated in huge numbers by militaries who were worried about the cost of scrapping them. But from what I hear, they are perfered over IFVs by the Ukrainians, because they survive mines, and have high road speeds. This, along with limited use of fighter aircraft and drones becoming cheap Rockets, is one of the more interesting take aways from the war imo. Has western military equipment completely forgot about mines, and our useless surplus become the most import asset?
@TheActionBastard
@TheActionBastard 2 ай бұрын
Mines are a bit of a touchy subject and it could be the west simply does not want to be seen providing such things. Consider the human cost after the war ends of mines: they are hidden, they are everywhere, and they may go off decades later on some civilian trying to till a field or walk somewhere. Cluster munitions were hesitantly provided for the same reason. There's a certain percentage of the cluster bomb that just does not go off and then sits somewhere waiting to be found and *then* go off. Unexploded ordinance is bad enough, never mind when it's also hidden unexploded ordinance. Or we could just be stuck yelling at each other over dumb shit in our Congress... sigh. Fucking political parties and their never ending dumbassery...
@neolithictransitrevolution427
@neolithictransitrevolution427 2 ай бұрын
@@TheActionBastard oh I'm not advocating supplying Mines. MRAPs are mine resistant ambush protected vehicles. I'm saying that most western equipment is rendered useless by a mine feild, except for these seemingly useless trucks with next to no frontal armour we have thousands of, which militaries were worried about the embarrassment of scrapping so they gave to Ukraine as aid, but it turns out they are the most useful thing. As for cluster bombs, I support US providing them, but not building more. Seems ideal to get rid of the surplus, and the failure to detonate rate is much lower than Russia (4% vs 20%) and Russia is actively using them. But I understand the discomfort.
@jgw9990
@jgw9990 2 ай бұрын
​@@neolithictransitrevolution427MRAPs are actually well suited for total war because they are really cheap and easy to produce. You can (like America did) knock out ten thousand in 5 years. You just cannot do that with a Bradley or Tank. RE mines. Minefields are at their best when artillery can punish any crossing attempts. The west typically established air superiority first, and so could hit artillery and protect crossings. They did this in desert storm, the minefields were cleared unopposed because rhe Iraqis were being bombed every 10 seconds.
@quinnocent
@quinnocent 2 ай бұрын
Western doctrine regarding Russia predicted far thinner mine density than the Russians have actually used. We also have relatively little modern experience dealing with thick mine fields, and mine-clearing equipment just isn't sexy, so I think it often ends up underprocured. The West really is just badly undersupplied regarding mine-clearing equipment. This is true for both naval and terrestrial mines.
@user-sj6iz8fi2w
@user-sj6iz8fi2w 2 ай бұрын
@@neolithictransitrevolution427 You forgot a little that mine-protected vehicles only GIVE the crew a CHANCE to survive when hitting a mine, nothing more. This is not a magic car that can drive over mines like on a race track, in fact it even handles mines worse than a modern tank.
@MakeYourLifeUnforgettable
@MakeYourLifeUnforgettable 2 ай бұрын
Thank you for your detailed explanations.
@thomasshreve750
@thomasshreve750 2 ай бұрын
William, great video, as always! Keep up the good work.
@kacperzimowski4626
@kacperzimowski4626 2 ай бұрын
Thank you for all your hard work. I love your channel!! :)
@robertolang9684
@robertolang9684 2 ай бұрын
kzbin.info/www/bejne/gIXJn4arYsx2rK8
@Proxymated
@Proxymated 2 ай бұрын
bot
@ronkolek613
@ronkolek613 2 ай бұрын
“Focusing on refurbishing mothballed equipment” while playing a cheeky clip of a T-34.
@Oldsmobility455
@Oldsmobility455 2 ай бұрын
Perfect illustration of why western observers are so deluded as to what is going on.
@BrentWalker999
@BrentWalker999 2 ай бұрын
Ok Ivan ​@@Oldsmobility455
@klin1klinom
@klin1klinom 2 ай бұрын
@@BrentWalker999 You still lose.
@BrentWalker999
@BrentWalker999 2 ай бұрын
@@klin1klinom no...
@FredDan188
@FredDan188 2 ай бұрын
Fantastic work.
@PoloCat
@PoloCat 2 ай бұрын
You, Perun, and Summoning Salt are the only KZbinrs I have notifications on for. Thanks for the great content.
@user-ul9dv2iv9s
@user-ul9dv2iv9s 2 ай бұрын
Really? That's it?
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 2 ай бұрын
Everyone thought that the over-the-top raid had been optimized, and that no time saves were left. Then this happened.
@PoloCat
@PoloCat 2 ай бұрын
@@Gametheory101 RUSSIAN INVASION SPEEDRUN (NATO expansion %, glitchless, Wagner roadtrip skip)
@mustardegg2
@mustardegg2 2 ай бұрын
summoning salt is the video game speed runs guy ?
@TheReferrer72
@TheReferrer72 2 ай бұрын
Caspian Report is the best they actually predicted the war and showed wear Russia would attack from.
@glennchartrand5411
@glennchartrand5411 2 ай бұрын
I think that in modern war if you don't have air superiority , the defenders have such a huge advantage that going on offense against a dug in enemy is just a mistake.
@AP-qs2zf
@AP-qs2zf 2 ай бұрын
We are that now, Russians advancing and crushing the defending army
@Mukation
@Mukation 2 ай бұрын
​@@AP-qs2zfUkraine is falling back to defenseble positions. It's not that Russia is advancing.
@coajdka
@coajdka 2 ай бұрын
​@@Mukation they're strategically moving west 😂
@ironmonkey1512
@ironmonkey1512 2 ай бұрын
@@Mukationyou are kidding, right?
@Mukation
@Mukation 2 ай бұрын
@@ironmonkey1512 Avdivka fell and they are now falling back. It's not rocket science.
@GerardMenvussa
@GerardMenvussa 2 ай бұрын
11:24 From dena2ification to debananification. Putin's strategic genius will never cease to amaze me /j
@carolwilliams8511
@carolwilliams8511 2 ай бұрын
😂👍
@wingedvictory8694
@wingedvictory8694 2 ай бұрын
debananafication😂😂
@guidobolke5618
@guidobolke5618 2 ай бұрын
It's part of the effort to return to soviet values
@redredwine1054
@redredwine1054 2 ай бұрын
Russian occupied Ukraine is shaped like a banana
@newwaveinfantry8362
@newwaveinfantry8362 2 ай бұрын
@@guidobolke5618 Yeah, exactly. There were no bananas here in Bulgaria, too.
@sp00kypumpk1n
@sp00kypumpk1n 2 ай бұрын
great video!
@barts6386
@barts6386 2 ай бұрын
Thank you for the video.
@dennisrydgren
@dennisrydgren 2 ай бұрын
2:16 where are the Russian supply lines supporting the front line. Where do they lead? What finance the sources of supply? New lines. Who or what company owns industry and supply chains? Hon can we make those people and companies really hard?
@ajstyles5704
@ajstyles5704 2 ай бұрын
You can't, this is Russia we are talking about, they can withstand until they use barter system like in ww2, but this time they got BRICS, they can afford to conscript another 40m, they have enough weapons and industries, that provided and supported over 20 countries including, China, India, Indonesia, North Korea, Vietnam, etc etc bla bla, they are the 2nd biggest manufacturer of weapons in the world. The heck has sanctions done? Have they stopped or slow down Russia at all? All I see is Ukrain asking for more and more. Quite almost 10 years since the sanctions begun. If it hasn't slowed them down, doubling it might work, but it seems to me, there is nothing else NATO can do.
@nickmcgookin247
@nickmcgookin247 2 ай бұрын
The best thing about waking up is " lines in your cup."🎵
@aenorist2431
@aenorist2431 2 ай бұрын
Very nice summary of that one Perun slideshow.
@blueguy5588
@blueguy5588 2 ай бұрын
Great analysis, thanks
@thegenesherman
@thegenesherman 2 ай бұрын
excellent as always! and I appreciate the shorter form content.
@jamesdavid311
@jamesdavid311 2 ай бұрын
Armaments get old, too. Keeping massive stocks doesn’t allow for weapons transformations and upgrades.
@TheFrewah
@TheFrewah 2 ай бұрын
True. You don’t want to make too many units of whatever it is. Also expensive to store and maintain. Communists didn’t understand. One company that made coffee making machines had decades worth of parts in store.
@stevemawer848
@stevemawer848 Ай бұрын
But as America has (apparently not) discovered, they can ship their nearly obsolete stocks of weapons to Ukraine where it'll still outperform Russian equipment, while using the money supposedly being sent to Ukraine to replenish America's stocks with modern weaponry. Most, if not all, of the $60b "going to Ukraine" will actually be spent in America's arms industry, creating jobs and taxes. But Trump will try to convince us otherwise - do you really want that for President?
@YiannissB.
@YiannissB. 2 ай бұрын
This chanel alongside Perun are my go to when it comes to information for Ukraine. Bell clicked.
@luminyam6145
@luminyam6145 2 ай бұрын
That was really interesting, thank you.
@walkir2662
@walkir2662 2 ай бұрын
"Why Russia's Offensive Could Be Self-Defeating" What do you mean "could"? Sweden and Finland joined NATO already.
@thejourney6712
@thejourney6712 2 ай бұрын
Sweden and Finland was always in bed with nato all but officially they keep trying to sell this as some kind of achievement
@pgbrown12084
@pgbrown12084 2 ай бұрын
Im concerned that Putin is waiting until after his re-election to call for another mobilization.
@berwynberis
@berwynberis 2 ай бұрын
Lol same. What ya cook? I had Mac n cheese!
@glennchartrand5411
@glennchartrand5411 2 ай бұрын
Ding!
@madkoala2130
@madkoala2130 2 ай бұрын
I think he is looking for one step further, full mobilization.
@sperrfeuer4158
@sperrfeuer4158 2 ай бұрын
does full mobilization even make sense? does russia have the hardware and the infrastructure to actually use all that manpower?
@lacasadelvideojuego3880
@lacasadelvideojuego3880 2 ай бұрын
@@sperrfeuer4158yes it does. It’s foolish to assume they aren’t prepare
@bjkarana
@bjkarana 2 ай бұрын
@10:39 "Animalous" Well played sir. Well played.
@goodroach9984
@goodroach9984 2 ай бұрын
I was just learned propositional logic in descrete math when you put up that proof. Suffice to say, your logic videos videos helped me do my homework afterwards.
@SpicyRamenBunny
@SpicyRamenBunny 2 ай бұрын
This channel, Artur Rehi, and Joe Blogs are my main Ukraine update channels I follow. Love the content keep up the hard work.
@dillonhillier
@dillonhillier 2 ай бұрын
Artur rehi is delusional. You should include military summary or weeb union to get a bit of balance. They're both pro russian, but they're also realistic.
@paul_teske
@paul_teske 2 ай бұрын
yeah ive been following artur for a while, but he is one of the most unreliable, disinformational ressources out there. i unsubscribed after his latest clickbait around the destruction of the kerch bridge@@dillonhillier
@paul_teske
@paul_teske 2 ай бұрын
since its not in the recommendation list, geopolitics daily does solid reporting on ukraine with a healthy bias for ukraine but much more factual than artur
@peterhynes2090
@peterhynes2090 2 ай бұрын
​@dillonhillier Artur Rehi is enthusiastic but hardly 'delusional', and I would rather listen to someone whose heart and head are in the right place
@manserizawa2327
@manserizawa2327 2 ай бұрын
​@@dillonhillierMilitary Summary is my go-to daily update on this war
@FurrySpatula
@FurrySpatula 2 ай бұрын
First Thanks for the great content as always. I always look forward to an alert from William Spaniel for a new video
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 2 ай бұрын
Certified first!
@Cjnw
@Cjnw 2 ай бұрын
Normie
@memirandawong
@memirandawong 2 ай бұрын
The business of war! What a fantastic analysis.
@Khal_Rheg0
@Khal_Rheg0 2 ай бұрын
Thank you!
@Iamwolf134
@Iamwolf134 2 ай бұрын
This just goes to show you that even Russia can only produce so much at this point in time.
@TomTomicMic
@TomTomicMic 2 ай бұрын
Russia is a poor producer, its economy went below that of Italy in 2023, South Korea and Mexico will overall it by 2025!?!
@lacasadelvideojuego3880
@lacasadelvideojuego3880 2 ай бұрын
@@TomTomicMicso sad that a country below México is giving 40 countries aiding Ukraine a run for their money…
@Charles-yq8vv
@Charles-yq8vv 2 ай бұрын
@@lacasadelvideojuego3880 You didn't watch the video, did you?
@niallmartin4098
@niallmartin4098 2 ай бұрын
​@@lacasadelvideojuego3880russia doing all it can, and 40 countries doing barely anything, sadly. The NATO alliance isn't even breaking a sweat. I just wish the allies would throw their full weight into this and put the matter to bed. russia's threats are just bluffs, because that's all they have to work with.
@CedarHunt
@CedarHunt 2 ай бұрын
If anything, the issue is that many people feel that Russia has been effectively defanged, and there is little reason to keep investing at the level we have been. That perspective has some validity, too.
@Kden420
@Kden420 2 ай бұрын
Tons of bots/no brainers in the comments.
@Cjnw
@Cjnw 2 ай бұрын
The Banderaist fascists for Ukraine 🤡🇺🇦🤣
@BLMVDV
@BLMVDV 2 ай бұрын
How did you know that?
@kellychuba
@kellychuba 2 ай бұрын
Says comrade 'EU soldier'
@robkit6681
@robkit6681 2 ай бұрын
Yes......there's a lot of Ukrop supporting NATO-bots....that don't have a clue
@lolasdm6959
@lolasdm6959 2 ай бұрын
Kettle call coal black
@SealFredy5
@SealFredy5 2 ай бұрын
What you described is not "just in time". Toyota absolutely stockpiled, but rather toyota build parts at the rate necessary for the end product simultaneously. In many factories tooling is set up to produce one specific part, then a production run of those parts is done. Then tooling is set up for a different part, then that different part has a long production run. Rinse and repeat until you have a massive stockpile of parts to make a massive amount of finished products, where final assembly can take place. Toyota absolutely still had wearhouses full of parts, they were just manufactured at the rate needed where the wearhouse compensated for shortages, down time, tooling repair, etc. The US implemented "just in time" really in name only. Corporate execs used it as an excuse to sell facilities, cut experienced staff, and ship jobs overseas (at least in non-defense sectors). This didn't work, but it did prevent firms from investing in expensive new factories with the latest machine tools. Which led to short term profit & stock surges. That's really the current US philosophy accross most corporations. Short term business decisions that greatly harm long term success. Jack Welch being the golden example.
@michaelpetras1613
@michaelpetras1613 2 ай бұрын
3:20 lol I wanna see that specific textbook discord quest
@yarpenzirgin1826
@yarpenzirgin1826 2 ай бұрын
So when Ukraine wins, Russia loses, and when Ukraine loses Russia... loses. Perfect logic.
@nerdyali4154
@nerdyali4154 2 ай бұрын
Hardly an honest interpretation.
@yarpenzirgin1826
@yarpenzirgin1826 2 ай бұрын
@@nerdyali4154 Care to present honest one?
@AlwaysBastos
@AlwaysBastos 2 ай бұрын
One more factor to consider; if Europe and US re-tools for military production they will apply modern automation methods to manufacturing. The current process for making shells has not changed much since WW2, it is slow and expensive. A modern production line could turn out shells much cheaper and flood the market. Catch 22 again?
@johnbancroft5242
@johnbancroft5242 2 ай бұрын
A couple of points, since the US blew up Nord Stream gas pipelines, the EU has struggled to make anything cheaply. (A massive own goal) And as the Western arms makers are capitalist, there will never be any 'cheap arms'.
@jamesthomas4841
@jamesthomas4841 2 ай бұрын
🙄@@johnbancroft5242
@fischersfritz468
@fischersfritz468 2 ай бұрын
​@@johnbancroft5242please provide us any proof
@thecocktailian2091
@thecocktailian2091 2 ай бұрын
@@johnbancroft5242 Always appreciate a good red propagandists. Thanks for that.
@F.R.E.D.D2986
@F.R.E.D.D2986 2 ай бұрын
​@@johnbancroft5242 You realise the first thing most capitalists will do, is make the product as cheaply as possible in order to save money?
@akeleven
@akeleven 2 ай бұрын
My impression of the book catch-22 was the winning the war was losing the war . Now I have to reread it but it was so depressing. And funny. Thoughtful I'm going to have to watch over again
@UncleJoeLITE
@UncleJoeLITE 2 ай бұрын
Outstanding analysis. Well developed arguments, logically presented.. I could happily work for LoM Corp as a junior line drawer.
@Arturus009
@Arturus009 2 ай бұрын
Here's hoping that Trump will never be allowed near the White House ever again...
@everss02
@everss02 2 ай бұрын
yeah zero wars and a great economy sure sucks...........This time he needs someone to hire his staff, freaking John Bolton andother RINO's good god
@Arturus009
@Arturus009 2 ай бұрын
@@everss02 Trump left the US economy with trillions more debt. He was rubbish. Biden didn't start either the war in Ukraine or the conflict in Israel btw
@AustinStarDust
@AustinStarDust 2 ай бұрын
@@everss02 Great economy? Remember 2000? John Bolton a RINO? If being a Republican means being a follower of a single man, then I guess you're right. 🤣 And we were still in a war with Afghanistan.
@everss02
@everss02 2 ай бұрын
@@AustinStarDust yeah leaving them a trillion dollar of gear great move.....fyi that heckler at the state of the union was the gold star father of a marine killed during the pull out by friendly fire. NOT a crazy guy.
@AustinStarDust
@AustinStarDust 2 ай бұрын
@@everss02 First off, it was $7.1 billion, not a trillion. I know you people have a terrible understanding math but com'on. And, over half of that was military vehicles. Now, while I agree the logistics of withdrawing the equipment should have been better, it is important to note that it was done per the Doha Agreement signed by Trump to withdraw by a specific date. The agreement was poorly negotiated yet Trump signed it. Weird how you people were not upset by the 5000 Talibans that Trump let loose, yet you're upset that jeeps got left behind. I'm not going to say anything about the heckler --- we weren't talking about him, and you're just trying to pivot away from your losing argument.
@Bellshazar
@Bellshazar 2 ай бұрын
At some point Russia will no longer be able to put refurbished units on the front line faster than they lose them. It's not clear when that will happen (possibly in 2025) but when it does, I see things moving in Ukraine's favor pretty quickly.
@KarelGut-rs8mq
@KarelGut-rs8mq 2 ай бұрын
That has already happened. Russia lose about 1300 tanks every year and is only capable of supplying 8-900 new and refurbished ones. The number of helicopters in active service in Russia has halved since the war started, no new ships or submarines have been build to replace the losses. Aircraft production is a tiny percentage of what the losses are.The russian armed forces is being degraded in both numeric and qualitative strength when it comes to materiel.
@9DANable
@9DANable 2 ай бұрын
​@@KarelGut-rs8mq Ukraine's losses are several times higher, and Russia's current production is the result of investments in peacetime. Considering that Russia's economic growth in 2023 was higher than that of the USA, and Europe is in recession, and also that this growth was achieved through investments in the military industry, Russia will be increasing its power at an alarming rate.
@demomanchaos
@demomanchaos 2 ай бұрын
​@@9DANable We have nearly 3,000 visually confirmed russian tank losses, while Ukraine started the war with less than 2,000 total tanks. Amazing how easy it is to pimp-slap soviet clanker lies
@KarelGut-rs8mq
@KarelGut-rs8mq 2 ай бұрын
@@9DANable Bullshit!
@Goat5747
@Goat5747 2 ай бұрын
​Imagine thinking that anybody who says something you don't like It is A Soviet clanker.​ Absolutely brain dead.@@demomanchaos
@agileanalyst214
@agileanalyst214 2 ай бұрын
Great episode. Thought provoking material
@laurenjeangreenbean6301
@laurenjeangreenbean6301 27 күн бұрын
Don't forget Will, YOSSARIAN LIVES! Saw it tagged on a railcar, thought of you 😢😂❤
@ZoeySaysTransRights
@ZoeySaysTransRights 2 ай бұрын
Its important that we keep this in context. Russia has a smaller economy the California, a SINGLE US state.
@diegomorata2885
@diegomorata2885 2 ай бұрын
Russia has commodities....n usa has Monopoly money
@demomanchaos
@demomanchaos 2 ай бұрын
​@@diegomorata2885The US produces everything russia does, but also produces things people actually want to buy like F-35.
@Ravi9A
@Ravi9A 2 ай бұрын
and that's how you now GDP is a worthless measurement.
@avalllex
@avalllex Ай бұрын
@@demomanchaos Striped flags and iPhones for the USA are made by China (and almost everything else)
@Tadicuslegion78
@Tadicuslegion78 2 ай бұрын
Just my two bits, Ukraine right now reminds me of reading accounts of Britain's military position 1940/41 in that they're having successful cuts at the edges of the enemy but can't solve the chief nut of how to break the stalemate of the trenches and push the Russians out, with their lack of heavy resources/manpower/air superiority/generals being able to do more with less and find new ways to turn Russian strengths into weaknesses. And further more, as an American, stopping Russian assets who call themselves "Super Patriots" by claiming they care about tax dollars being wasted on Ukraine and spewing the Kremlin talking points about Ukraine, NATO, Democracy, and all that.
@tinnasell4161
@tinnasell4161 2 ай бұрын
Just shows the world learned nothing from past wars.
@Cjnw
@Cjnw 2 ай бұрын
No Nut March 🤣
@ryanweible9090
@ryanweible9090 2 ай бұрын
sadly that will take till November, and unfortunately in a lot of states they woudl literally vote for a full mask and cloak klansman..maybe prefer it. So im hopeful but concerned.
@user-nr8zj5nm4d
@user-nr8zj5nm4d 2 ай бұрын
Thorough analysis again William, thank you. To your points I may add the paralyzed state of Russia's Black Sea fleet and RU's diminished radar coverage from the air, seriously complicating battlefield coordination. Ukraine is now also targeting energy facilities within Russia, hurting a crucial export sector. The catch 22 mechanism may not apply here, but taking away oxygen from the economy seems a fruitful indirect way of ending Putin's obsessed adventure in Ukraine.
@Maratreason
@Maratreason 2 ай бұрын
What reality do you live in? :)
@phester28
@phester28 2 ай бұрын
@@Maratreasonhe seems to live in this one, which one do you live in
@vonries
@vonries 2 ай бұрын
Interesting thanks.
@RobotNine
@RobotNine 2 ай бұрын
It's really amazing how much disinformation is floating around this subject, and how clear the real information is. Excellent analysis Will.
@notastone4832
@notastone4832 2 ай бұрын
you are thanking a propagandist lmfao.. hes literally the one pushing the "disinformation"
@mortvald
@mortvald 2 ай бұрын
The Irony of this statement, please by all means don't delete this comment, i'll see you in a few months
@zezenkop412
@zezenkop412 2 ай бұрын
Everything this guy has Ever said never happened If you consider his analysis as "excellent" then I am really concerned your cognitive abilities
@notastone4832
@notastone4832 2 ай бұрын
@@mortvaldsomeone else deleted mine.. RIP
@robertolang9684
@robertolang9684 2 ай бұрын
kzbin.info/www/bejne/gIXJn4arYsx2rK8
@midimusicforever
@midimusicforever 2 ай бұрын
Russia is really good at scoring own-goals!
@Adonnus100
@Adonnus100 2 ай бұрын
I don't think Ukraine will be able to repeat the Kharkiv-Kherson success from late 2022. What the problem is, is that Russia has plenty of new recruits due to its massive promised financial bonuses and large population, so it can easily take the heavy losses each month and still have enough troops to hold the line. In 2022 their lines were thin. And Ukrainians do not have enough vehicles or artillery ammunition to be comfortable defending now, so they will not be able to attack for some time (probably until the US aid is unblocked, if it ever is).
@genechaas7369
@genechaas7369 2 ай бұрын
Very well done. William, " Tora, Tora, Tora" may be the best American war film ever made! PS the fear of civil strife, or more specifically, relative deprivation, is what drove the fascists to terrorize a neighbor , imho. THANK YOU FOR THE INSIGHTS!
@fij715
@fij715 2 ай бұрын
Compium hard
@KittyCat-qg4vd
@KittyCat-qg4vd 2 ай бұрын
Why this channel Could Be Self-Defeating
@regcrowder9010
@regcrowder9010 20 күн бұрын
Great analysis 🎉 Keep it up!
@MrHodoAstartes
@MrHodoAstartes 2 ай бұрын
Well, the upscaling of ammunition production is already underway. There are new facilities being built, existing lines expanding. Question is how fast that can impact the frontline in a meaningful way.
@mbe102
@mbe102 2 ай бұрын
Russia sure loves its pyrrhic victories...
@user-si2dr1pn3p
@user-si2dr1pn3p 2 ай бұрын
If you were right, Russia would not be such a great power.
@TheesHenning
@TheesHenning 2 ай бұрын
​@@user-si2dr1pn3pare they ? What makes russia a great power is neither the military or the economy, its their nuclear weapons
@user-si2dr1pn3p
@user-si2dr1pn3p 2 ай бұрын
@@TheesHenning What makes Russia a great power is a powerful army, a strong economy, great culture and history, traditional human values, good education and competent politics.
@danielbecker4365
@danielbecker4365 2 ай бұрын
@@user-si2dr1pn3p But, but, they refuse to push the rights of LGBTs and instruct pre schoolers about transgenderism!
@user-si2dr1pn3p
@user-si2dr1pn3p 2 ай бұрын
@@danielbecker4365 This is because they are decent, mentally healthy people.
@kitcarpo4745
@kitcarpo4745 2 ай бұрын
I watch your videos with interest, and they have some very valid insights. I would like to see a case analysis with the flavour of butterscotch brickel compared to your rocky road with rasberry topping, namely an analysis or series of analyses based on the lines on maps adjust for the national capabilities rather than performance. For example: Should Russia throw every resource, reducing iteself to nothing at the conclusion, what would be the output of the process on the ground in Ukraine. This concept may provide invaluable insight into the war's outcome. It also might be very difficult to do.
@kitcarpo4745
@kitcarpo4745 2 ай бұрын
Perhaps I am missing something you did present, or is a basic undercurrent in your Lines on Maps bit.
@larsrons7937
@larsrons7937 2 ай бұрын
Thank you for a thought provoking analysis. 11:25 - This is when an old song gained new popularity is russia: 🎼🎵 _"Yes! We have no Bananas!"_ 🎶
@tyrelledavenport106
@tyrelledavenport106 2 ай бұрын
Bro the field goal posts have moved like 20 times since the start of the war. Russia losing because of this, no this, no this, no this. Y’all assumptions are dog shit
@FallingPicturesProductions
@FallingPicturesProductions 2 ай бұрын
It's almost as if strategies, tactics, and economics change throughout the course of a long war.
@JuddKramer
@JuddKramer 2 ай бұрын
As has been stated before, even if Russia were to suddenly experience a series of miracles and take over the entirety of Ukraine....that's the easy part. Maintaining control of a large nation with a populace that hates you and the failure to perform counter-insurgencies has killed entire war efforts before.
@spudwesth
@spudwesth 2 ай бұрын
Only 1/3 is Russians
@sirblast6863
@sirblast6863 2 ай бұрын
If the playbook was one similar to the US and the middle east, you would have been correct but they're not using that book. The people who fit that description are long dead or crippled; demographics matter in the situation you describe. There won't be the insurgency that the US experienced because the Ukraine population have been decimated.
@architech02
@architech02 2 ай бұрын
​@@sirblast6863 Not to mention that it's harder to perform insurgency in flat and exposed terrains unlike in Afghanistan which is full of mountains
@ahaha58
@ahaha58 2 ай бұрын
@@sirblast6863 yes. And do not underestimate them - they most likely will put a puppet regime that will by the book be "independent" and speaking Ukrainian etc, just with a far more "friendly" attitude to Russia - Belarus is an example. In a few years there may be no-one left who would be against "them" apart from most hard core western independence adepts and their existence is not going to be known by wide masses and they will be exiled and killed etc - the same that was happening from 20s to 90s in XXth century - it was not an issue in maintaining the USSR. Yes the number of killed will be remembered and even venerated, just that Russia is not going to be blamed for them but someone else and on the contrary, there will be a lot of stories and examples of Russian "benevolence" and attitude as toward "brother nation" that will be circulated and adopted.
@danielbecker4365
@danielbecker4365 2 ай бұрын
Damn, that reminds me of a few unsuccessful wars...
@hoodoo2001
@hoodoo2001 2 ай бұрын
I like it when Spaniel confirms what I already knew, especially as he actually knows what he is talking about and I am just guessing.
@shelonnikgrumantov5061
@shelonnikgrumantov5061 2 ай бұрын
Could be or could be not. In the war of attrition, Russia does not even need to exchange 1:1, anything less than 5:1 would be in Russia’s favor - and the actual exchange rate is very far from that threshold
@expatexpat6531
@expatexpat6531 2 ай бұрын
I find the train of thought in your videos becomes difficult to follow due to the unnatural declamatory style of your narration. The distinct pause between each clause slows down the narrative, unnecessarily lengthens the video, and clouds over the content. Try speaking naturally and less self consciously.
@EggBastion
@EggBastion 2 ай бұрын
Ha! This is the first one I've ever really followed - which, I think only serves to illustrate your point
@Proxymated
@Proxymated 2 ай бұрын
His channel is all propaganda.
@monkey_gamer_001
@monkey_gamer_001 2 ай бұрын
speak for yourself. i like his delivery. gives me time to absorb things compared to fast paced speakers
@myconpodship
@myconpodship 2 ай бұрын
Cope: The video
@engineerconagher9466
@engineerconagher9466 2 ай бұрын
literally
@joedorazio8697
@joedorazio8697 2 ай бұрын
Liked you excellent analysis on the state of the war. I have been following Russia's materiel losses, as stated by Ukrainians, against stated numbers before the war. I appreciate that the numbers on either end may be exaggerated, but they may a good indicator of state of play. On just a few items, it appears that after 2 years, Russia has lost, MBTs > 50%, APVs >45%, artillery 70%. On MBTs alone, the Russians are losing about 8.8 per day, while new and refurbished are averaging 3.3 per day. At this rate they will run out in 2 years. What is not taken into account, are what % of the initial numbers were operational, and given that Russia's political situation would require MBT presence across the country, mostly cities and on their borders.
@utrukkurtu7293
@utrukkurtu7293 2 ай бұрын
We hear this for the whole length of the war. Russia has left for . And then all of these prophets miserably fail.
@enpakeksi765
@enpakeksi765 2 ай бұрын
@@utrukkurtu7293 Russia in 2022 wasn't ancient MT-LBs as APCs, even more ancient T-54s as frontline tanks, and unarmored "loaf" vans as troop transports. Now they do. Did anyone predict that?
@utrukkurtu7293
@utrukkurtu7293 2 ай бұрын
@@enpakeksi765 Are they forbidden or what?
@enpakeksi765
@enpakeksi765 2 ай бұрын
@@utrukkurtu7293What are forbidden?
@utrukkurtu7293
@utrukkurtu7293 2 ай бұрын
@@enpakeksi765 The frontline is a very broad word. You can get an old tank and shell the enemy from a closed position, using a drone for corrective fire. Especially when you have lots of such tanks and lots of ammo for them. Is this a bad thing or something that is forbidden?
@Ssm19494
@Ssm19494 2 ай бұрын
Nafo bots officially in fantasy land 😂
@tundraboi2858
@tundraboi2858 2 ай бұрын
Abouslute irony of you guys talking about the other side being bots when most of you that try to defend Russia literally are KZbin accounts created by the Russian government for the sake of spewing kremlin talking points, but of course you vatniks would not have any self awareness.
@twocentcoop9683
@twocentcoop9683 2 ай бұрын
youtubers when russia doesnt attack : they are losing youtubers when russia attacks : they are going to lose youtubers when russia gains ground : they are actually youtubers when russia wins? : um actually they lost
@Joaquin546
@Joaquin546 2 ай бұрын
20k for a destroyed village? It takes impressive mental Olympics for that to be considered a win.
@Seft2_
@Seft2_ 2 ай бұрын
​@@Joaquin546oh great the "its a tiny insignificant village" with 31,000 (Pre war)
@Joaquin546
@Joaquin546 2 ай бұрын
@@Seft2_ yeah there wasn't a single person left after two years of war
@user-qk3kt7jp6o
@user-qk3kt7jp6o 2 ай бұрын
Where did you get 20k from? @@Joaquin546
@angelikaskoroszyn8495
@angelikaskoroszyn8495 2 ай бұрын
Losing and winning is more than just territorial gains. If you use shittone of your resources to gain control over a small town you might still be in the process of losing. If too many of your best soldiers got killed it will be difficult to deal with the inevitable counter attack. At best your enemy will get the town back. At worst they will be able to push you back further Alternatively you could've kept your position and lost less of your soldiers. This way not only the counter offensive is less likely to be successful but also you can focus on better targets Who is truly losing rn? Who knows. It's difficult to 100% be sure. Maybe the small town was actually important
@christopherstewart1163
@christopherstewart1163 2 ай бұрын
When looking at equipment maintenance and advancement, economic viability, public support of leadership, personnel attrition, insulation of base support, and strategic degradation, does anyone actually believe time is on Russia's side?
@user-sj6iz8fi2w
@user-sj6iz8fi2w 2 ай бұрын
Alas, time is on Russia's side. While the West is lazily tossing in bed, Russia is learning. Do not think that Russia is incapable of developing, they have recently made a breakthrough in the field of planned bombs. Now Ukraine will suffer defeats until the appearance of the F-16.
@rumplstiltztinkerstein
@rumplstiltztinkerstein 2 ай бұрын
There are lots of similarities between Putin and Franz Conrad von Hotzendorf. I definitely recommend reading about him. He was an Austrian general that pushed for the invasion of Serbia to "Protect the ethnic people of the Austro-Hungarian empire". He called for wave after wave of assaults to expand the borders, failing miserable due to Guerilla tactics, drying Germany's resources and eventually losing the First World War.
@KianFloppa
@KianFloppa 2 ай бұрын
Slava Ukraini from Germany
@bloocheese2902
@bloocheese2902 2 ай бұрын
fascist
@gaelank-rs4ot
@gaelank-rs4ot 2 ай бұрын
Should be in Ukraine fighting?
@jiminverness
@jiminverness 2 ай бұрын
It's not Keev. It's Key-iv
@ashkanshekarchi7753
@ashkanshekarchi7753 2 ай бұрын
It’s Kiev. Look at all old and new English docs before this farcical show emerges.
@jiminverness
@jiminverness 2 ай бұрын
@@ashkanshekarchi7753 _"It’s Kiev. Look at all old and new English docs before this farcical show emerges."_ 1. Your comment is irrelevant to my previous comment, becuase he's mispronouncing Kyiv as Keev, when it should be Key-iv. He's not trying to pronounce Kiev, which would be Key-ev. 2. It's not Kiev anyway. Not for awhile now. Just as Calcutta is now Kolkata, or Bombay is now Mumbai, or Peking is now Beijing, Kiev is now Kyiv, and the reason is to reduce perceived ties to Little Ukraine (aka russia) and to have the capital pronounced closer to how it sounds in Ukrainian.
@ReichLife
@ReichLife 2 ай бұрын
@@jiminverness Lot of nonsense you preach. At the end of day name is same as it always was, Kiev.
@jiminverness
@jiminverness 2 ай бұрын
@@ReichLife _"Lot of nonsense you preach. At the end of day name is same as it always was, Kiev."_ You're full of shite, mate.
@danielbecker4365
@danielbecker4365 2 ай бұрын
Kief
@MaxHaydenChiz
@MaxHaydenChiz 2 ай бұрын
I'm curious. Do you think we know enough to put a plausible expectation value on the outcome (probably with a very high variance)? Uncertainties will go away, someone will get elected President of the US, and information asymmetries will erode. Can we rule anything in or out with any degree of confidence at this point? Also, is there some (reachable) limit in terms of damage to Russia where things go "too far"? A complete collapse of the Russian state would probably be bad given the nuclear weapons, but that also seems implausibly unlikely. Is there something more plausible that justifies the level of caution we saw early in the war? Could that concern show up again? All of the things I can think of seem too remote, but perhaps I'm not thinking carefully enough. Like, is there any reason to worry that Putin could be replaced in a coup with someone "worse"? Or that China or some other actor could start benefit if Russia is left too hollowed out to be an effective international actor?
@Cjnw
@Cjnw 2 ай бұрын
@HayleyKiyoko
@mikefallwell1301
@mikefallwell1301 2 ай бұрын
I think that Biden's primary concern is that he needs to keep Russia engaged until it's completely depleted. Failure to do this would result in a frozen conflict🎉🎉🎉
@lt.petemaverickmitchell7113
@lt.petemaverickmitchell7113 2 ай бұрын
Your analysis is both entertaining and hilarious…..
@Historyfan476AD
@Historyfan476AD 2 ай бұрын
Or maybe Russia is just winning, sometimes the bitter truth is real.
@Honking_Goose
@Honking_Goose 2 ай бұрын
Winning 0.2% last month wow yeah really winning there comrade
@everss02
@everss02 2 ай бұрын
@@Honking_Goose all they want is the land they took first month, the land with all Russians anyway.
@Honking_Goose
@Honking_Goose 2 ай бұрын
@everss02 Well, they won't get it
@Historyfan476AD
@Historyfan476AD 2 ай бұрын
@@Honking_Goose They seem to have broke the Ukraine's back for now. They have made major breakthroughs, that ain't been stopped yet.
@ahaha58
@ahaha58 2 ай бұрын
@@everss02 haha the other countries with a lot of Russian immigrants should be worried as well - what if ruzzia wants their land as well
@paulus7137
@paulus7137 2 ай бұрын
cope harder
@wlhjr77
@wlhjr77 2 ай бұрын
what does that even mean?
@bloodgout
@bloodgout 2 ай бұрын
@@wlhjr77it means paulus is drinking industrial strength copium 😂
@92100mark
@92100mark 2 ай бұрын
Interesting analysis regarding the West trip wire shift in policy. But : 1) there is another catch-22 situation regarding China who was happy with some form of status quo and can't accept a Russian defeat 2) Russia is aware of the new arms build up policy in the West and could therefore consider that he is better off going all in now rather than later.
@teaser6089
@teaser6089 2 ай бұрын
4:20 To answer this Will, it's very simple why would Ukraine spend valuable manpower and equipment expanding the bridgehead? What will this achieve? Most likely nothing but dead Ukrainian soldiers, the Bridgehead as is already is a huge pain in the ass for the Russians, there is no tactical nor strategic need to expand it.
@Ravi9A
@Ravi9A 2 ай бұрын
the very definition of Copium
@user-yi1qp1ch7s
@user-yi1qp1ch7s 2 ай бұрын
as always, a Western guy trying to analyze the Russian with his Western mindset 🙂
@juckey2730
@juckey2730 2 ай бұрын
Of course, because otherwise the statistics would be completely made up.
@danielbecker4365
@danielbecker4365 2 ай бұрын
Trust Harvard. They pump out Kremlinologist PhD's.
@user-yi1qp1ch7s
@user-yi1qp1ch7s 2 ай бұрын
@@danielbecker4365 who never been to Russia, i believe 🙂
@danielbecker4365
@danielbecker4365 2 ай бұрын
@@user-yi1qp1ch7s standard 2 weeks cruise St Petersburg -Moscow but discussions with mining colleagues who worked there.
@khorweesiong
@khorweesiong 2 ай бұрын
This video misses one issue. What are Ukrainian losses and are the losses sustainable? In this war of attrition, Ukrainian lines could break if it runs out of troops to sacrifice on the front lines
@toby9999
@toby9999 2 ай бұрын
That would depend on the type of support Ukraine receives going forward. Better weapons and more weapons should reduce losses in personnel.
@khorweesiong
@khorweesiong 2 ай бұрын
@@toby9999 Ukraine may not have the personnel to man the better weapons at the rate things are going, it this goes on for much longer
@nerdyali4154
@nerdyali4154 2 ай бұрын
Ukraine have been agonising over whether to lower the draft age from 27 to 25. They aren't running out anytime soon and most Ukrainians know what Russian occupation looks like, so there's no lack of motivation.
@forestturnings5732
@forestturnings5732 2 ай бұрын
Very well thought out. These are perilous times for all freedom-loving citizens of this planet.
@oki1966
@oki1966 2 ай бұрын
I hope the best for Ukraine. We are broke in the US, and need to worry about our own problems. Peace out
@fflife74
@fflife74 2 ай бұрын
U do realise that "money sent to the drug addict" is actually mostly being spent in US ? It goes to the arms factories, creating jobs which creates more tax income and u send equipment thats supposed to be scrapped most of the time. And the cost of scrapping the obsolete/ out of date arms is a lot higher than giving it to Ukraine for free
@rmdomainer9042
@rmdomainer9042 2 ай бұрын
Classic hacked troll operated account. Always a boomer with old videos.
@everss02
@everss02 2 ай бұрын
@@fflife74 aka money laundering to the military industrial complex
@ahaha58
@ahaha58 2 ай бұрын
hmm. should not have started then. nice words - "piece". after ruzzians taken a huge thank of Ukrainian territory. should it be left to Russia then? For what best you hope? It will be puppet government as in Belorussia - to be fair may be it is the best - who knows...
@stevemawer848
@stevemawer848 Ай бұрын
@@fflife74 Not to mention the free advertising showcasing the superiority of western weaponry over Russia's.
@megatherium100
@megatherium100 2 ай бұрын
"Why winning on the actual battlefield is actually losing"... Galaxy Brain take.... this is going directly into the ukraine war cringe playlist.
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