Sir John Curtice on 2024 election: Tories could get between 50 and 150 seats

[@NPC-st7zv]

Zero Seats, Anything more is too many.

[@marksimons8861]

I don't think I have ever enjoyed an election so much as this one. I do hope the results tomorrow will be as much fun as Mr Curtice predicts.

[@derekmab7734]

150 seats????? We don't want them with that number. Tories out!!!!!

[@jungleboy1]

150 constituencies still suffering from dementia.

[@catherinemartin6258]

I hope they don’t get any seats

[@colineastwood7005]

They could have 1 seat , that’s the 1 in the W / C !

[@ant7936]

We need a change or referendum, on the voting system ASAP

[@jimthompson9370]

To what though? AV? Not popular. PR? Have you seen European Parliaments? (What winning party would do that anyway?) DD? Maybe with only a few per parliament, but again - which party in power would agree to it? We can’t even amend the House of Lords. 🤷🏿

[@32446]

We had one and turnout was appalling.

[@ant7936]

@@jimthompson9370 We have PR in Scotland. I'm not sure how effective it is. But it seems to produce coalitions in Denmark, which appear to benefit the people.

[@WestysGate]

​@@jimthompson9370 We should be deciding that. There should never be one party. It should be one house of commons with an equal number of seats for all parties. So if there's 100 seats and 5 parties they get 20 seats each. If a party can't get 20 seats they are not allowed in

[@jimthompson9370]

@@ant7936 - it also seems to mean governments fall much faster with a lot more instability. I don’t like the look of that. Scotland’s dominance by the SNP isn’t a great advert either.

[@rsmickeymooproductions4877]

Tories treated the nation like shit for years. Now the tables have turned. Reset button required for them.

[@curiosity230]

Tory is no longer conservative after Bojo's betrayal.

[@susanpettitt713]

Take ID get out to vote out ta ..x

[@tonycooper4141]

Plus an ink pen.

[@peter.marshall]

Looks like a record breaking failure for the tories. That's similar to their record breaking failure over the past 14 years.

[@Jack-fs2im]

Labour will be much much worse than any tory govt.Starmer is just saying anything asked

[@peter.marshall]

@@Jack-fs2im Both parties say what they think you want to hear. But let's face it the Conservatives have had long enough to achieve their goals.

[@Jack-fs2im]

@@peter.marshall yeah yeah blah blah We have bill then ben then back to bill and start again.Starmer has dumped net zero.trans in womens spaces etc etc mr flip flop

[@davestevenson9080]

@@Jack-fs2im they are both awful yes, anyone voting tory or labour should be banned from voting

[@keeshond8]

⁠​⁠​⁠​⁠​⁠@@Jack-fs2imIt’s the Ming vase strategy which Michael Heseltine was saying recently was working for Labour (although I personally think it has put the party in a straight jacket) because, as he said, “the Mail and the Telegraph would otherwise be at their throats.” To that I’d add the Sun and Express titles, although I understand it was the other two, in particular, which launched a campaign against him after Thatcher was dethroned in 1990, so he is reflecting his own experience of press attacks.

[@Rick-xp5sy]

🤣 they won’t get over 50, Boris has seen to that now.

[@privatechannel8462]

I've got my popcorn and champagne... im all set

[@oojimmyflip]

your voting Labour then chamnpne isnt exactly an aquired taste is it? its just very expensive cider, drunk by socialists.😂

[@paulherlihy9290]

John Curtis is the David Attenborough of politics. Everyone loves Sir David and everyone loves Sir John. Gems of British broadcasting❤️🇬🇧

[@paulherlihy9290]

@@skipmole612 well let's hope you are wrong about that.

[@jancaulfield3549]

Didn’t here him mention Reform - or was I mistaken

[@K_j_M]

Why should they? Reform get loads of air time. More than their tiny numbers warrant

[@tonyjeevar6565]

They're expected to win 12% of the vote nationally, leading to 3 seats.

[@okokokjack]

*hear

[@jancaulfield3549]

@@tonyjeevar6565 hope you’re wrong tony

[@jancaulfield3549]

@@okokokjack 🤣🤣 sorry, fat fingers !!

[@lynjago6022]

Get off your ass and vote! (you can't complain if you don't)

[@jaybee4288]

We’re in Britain love, it’s arse.

[@onenote6619]

Only one poll matters and that is in the election booth. Assuming anything else is a mistake.

[@JG-fv9bv]

Tories less than 60

[@jaybee4288]

Polls are way too generous. 30-50 tops

[@1697djh]

Yawn! You where wrong about the Brexit referendum, so shut up!

[@daithomas9859]

You've got to be sick to vote, Tory, after what they've done to the country.

[@marksimons8861]

To be fair, Nigel Farage played his role in destroying Britain too.

[@stumac869]

​@@marksimons8861don't talk nonsense. Labour and the Conservatives have created the mess we're in.

[@daithomas9859]

@@marksimons8861 he was never the Prime Minister.

[@Moneymaster-op8fl]

And Labour for what they will do.

[@Moneymaster-op8fl]

@@marksimons8861Nigel will be the saviour of Britain

[@jbconno]

The big news here is that Sir John has had a hair cut for the big occasion

[@truckerfromreno]

It has to be Reform.

[@johngorton-qu9xn]

Tories out

[@sam.p12345]

How original and profound. Do you honestly expect your lot to change significantly with a change of government? I don't reckon you do genuinely think it'll affect you, but you must have a strong political opinion that you publicly state to demonstrate how intelligent you think you are.

[@eightiesmusic1984]

Red Tories in. RIP Labour Party 1900-1924.

[@dewistaplesjones6338]

@@sam.p12345 I don’t care if his lot don’t change anything, watching your lots demise at the hands of the electorate tomorrow will make so many people happy we might get some faith back in democracy 🎉

[@naradaian]

@@dewistaplesjones6338there is only one uniparty so getting the tories out also means in this vote getting new labour tories in. As Galloway says ‘2 cheeks of the same arse’ - so its a utterly pointless remark

[@leecudmore-ray6697]

@@sam.p12345 wind your neck in mate

[@martinvairy5587]

Lib Lab Cons out.

[@robertgavin980]

I think there should be a prize for the first journalist to mention Michael Portillo tomorrow 😅

[@victorgrasscourt3382]

No one is mentioning turnout. If there is a high turnout, Reform will benefit.

[@Nemothewonderfish]

Nope, the other way round. The racists and gammons tend to vote more. Low turnout favours the.

[@bobtahoma]

And they did mention turn out. John specifically asked a question about turnout and the Prof answered it comprehensively.

[@denniswinters3096]

Far from exaggerating Labour's lead, there is reliable evidence that the pollsters, if anything, are underestimating just how devastating this election is going to be for the Tories. " Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, But to be young was very heaven! " Oh to be young again !

[@petersmith9470]

Why is it that Mr Curtice always reminds of an old scotch tape advert skeleton?

[@over-engineered]

what a pointless interview, he doesn’t really have any idea what’s going to happen. Vote Reform

[@JonDingle]

I intend to vote for common sense, Britishness, patriotism, small business, the taxpayer, sanity, the future of British children (born and unborn), law and order and for the chance to derail, disrupt and deal a blow to communism, eco-fascism, medical fascism, wokeism and globalism by voting Reform UK. It is your choice who you vote for, more of the same or more of a chance in life!

[@GS44691]

Interesting, you stated you're against 'eco-fascism' etc but didn't mention Fascism itself.

[@basicconcepts1d]

Globalism is Nigels wet dream ffs.

[@aspman8965]

The definition of fascism is big business controlling governments, which is exactly what we have with lab/con who answer to the WEF. Reform.

[@johnbrereton5229]

​@@aspman8965 The definition of Fascism is actually unionism or collectivism, it literally means a bundle of sticks. Mussolini was a well known Marxist and editor of Avanti a Socialist news papers .

[@oojimmyflip]

Ive got crippling leg ulcers and my legs in bandages and its certainly worth my shoe leather Im voting Reform.

[@okokokjack]

Being mobile helps circulation and improves healing outcomes for leg ulcers.

[@basicconcepts1d]

Your wasting your time and effort. Better going to the pub and having a few beers. Good for your circulation and its therapy telling others about your attempted political suicide.

[@aspman8965]

My gf mother has same with her legs, the doctors haven't got a clue what is causing it. Good on you for voting for the party that suits you best. We may not win this election but we're a heck of a lot stronger than these stupid polls suggest. Reform.

[@oojimmyflip]

@@basicconcepts1d if everyone had that attitude no-one would bother voting, our ancestors gave their lives for our right to vote at least have the decceny to turn out and do it.

[@carelgoodheir692]

Voting for a man who wants to abolish the NHS and have us all make the best individual deals we can with private health insurance? And you, with pre-existing health problems, would get either a very expensive deal or no deal at all? Talk about turkeys voting for Christmas!!!!!

[@JelMain]

Here's to zero.

[@nikkihamilton4374]

Tories have had their day…or 14 yrs …thrown away for nothing! We’re fed up with holding our nose to vote for them! Vote Reform for a new opposition while we build a new political future after Starmer!

[@elguapo1507]

Come on Reform! Make this country a far better place! 👍

[@stephenfarthing3819]

I can't say that surprises me! It may prove to be that what I was expecting may come to pass. I believe that it's hovering around 80 seats kept but split between Centralists and Neo Conservatives - this is belatedly welcome and is the first time I have heard this. I believe that the Conservatives are about to lose not just once but twice!

[@iaf010]

So anywhere between 5 and 650 seats ? Now thats veey helpful!

[@EmilyWorker]

Tories out. Vote Reform.

[@user-jg2nq6ll4c]

They won't get anywhere NEAR 50 seats😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@queenie1949]

Upstart parties, who does John Pieraar think he is, so rude. Can tell what side his political bread is buttered, isn’t he supposed to be impartial.

[@colinsmith7576]

Even the professor doesn't know

[@aspman8965]

If you don't want labour then vote reform not conservative. Simples.

[@carelgoodheir692]

You do indeed have to be a bit simple to think that🙂

[@sbrown314]

There's still time for one more Tory scandal.

[@garethjohn9340]

This is the guy who failed to predict Galloway winning Rochdale. I haven't heard him admit that mistake.

[@userfile007]

MSM are censoring most Galloway activity, they’re terrified of him

[@K_j_M]

That's the nature of predictions. It's neither a fail or a win. It's just a best guess ye helmet

[@itequipment8251]

The bookies did. And their lowest odds are for 50 to 100 seats.

[@tomasemitchell]

Galloway was a white whale. Labour safe seat, has strong opinions on Gaza. Labours Gaza policy was opposed and then the labour candidate was pulled. The Greens, which is are the more natural protest vote, pulled their candidate so it was essentially a Galloway vs Tory race which pretty naturally favours Galloway. Not predictable due to unique circumstances, but very understandable with hindsight

[@danielsellers8538]

I think your prediction stinks

[@doug8515]

The whole interview was to scare Tories to not vote Reform, it won't work

[@joemitchell7499]

Embarrassing Britain football army potholes boats crossing we can’t do anything anymore the prime minister has to resign

[@EdMcF1]

Dear Turkeys: You have the choice of voting for Christmas, Thanksgiving or New Year's Day tomorrow.

[@brendandonnelly1853]

I have never understood this political saying. Nobody ever invites turkeys to vote and if they did their vote would make no difference to the end result. They will end up on 😅the dining-plate anyway.

[@jaybee4288]

If you vote Tory there’s a chance they’ll cancel Christmas.

[@shemminho]

@@brendandonnelly1853 It's a simile. We are likening voting - Tory or Labour in this particular election - to a turkey voting for Christmas (in a world where turkeys have a political voice). That they will end up on the dinner plate is the entire point

[@nathanSWP]

Wes Streeting will lose his seat to a tory- squeezed out by strong independent - watch out

[@matt49125]

good

[@scottbuckingham5626]

I would say 80 seats

[@julianshepherd2038]

It's SNP V Liberals where I live. Tories came 4th last time. Probably come 5th this time. Indyref2 please

[@Jack-fs2im]

poor fellow

[@kerryblue4160]

vote Euan

[@tonymaries1652]

The SNP is the largest progressive left-leaning party in the last parliament. Labour are Red Tories. If I lived in Scotland I would have no hesitation in voting SNP.

[@Jack-fs2im]

@@tonymaries1652 they are not left leaning,they support abirtion and end of life policies like the germans and Dr Mengele would.They want to destoy the family by sending mothers to work while the state brings up the children and many more far right ideals

[@basicconcepts1d]

​@@tonymaries1652You stay where you are Tony. We have enough nutters here as it is.

[@jancaulfield3549]

Seems like the boundary commission needs to get a grip - there is a massive difference between number of constituents being represented by each MP

[@EdMcF1]

It has all been carefully worked out.

[@MOSJ-wz4hg]

Vote Reform.

[@stewartsmith6182]

50 to 150 seats ? Or in other words i don't have a clue. Thanks for nothing.

[@chrisoneill3999]

Both figures mean that the Conservatives will effectively have no power in the new Parliament. Sir John understands politics, you could learn a lot from him.

[@margaretpepper3550]

Vote Reform.....the ONLY party that puts British people first....PR needed as never before!!

[@johnmichaelson9173]

😂 How about no fing way, smh.

[@debbiebedford]

@@johnmichaelson9173showing your true colours mate

[@johnmichaelson9173]

@@debbiebedford They're a bunch of second rate pricks. Come on let's be honest, they can't run the country. It's all dog whistle bullshit.

[@carelgoodheir692]

PR is needed as never before - to make sure that if Reform's leader takes over the Tories we don't get a Refotm/Tory government on a minority vote at a future GE. Geert got 31% in NL. Here that could have given him full power. But in NL the 69% who didn't vote for him got full representation too, and a not too far right of Centre government has been agreed, with policies that leave out most of his nuttier stuff. A government that reflects NL opinion sat this time, in other words, not some ultra-nationalist nightmare - thanks to PR.

[@englishweather9763]

we need an #ImmigrationReferendum , vote Reform to break the lib/lab con.

[@K_j_M]

Silence ye gammon

[@NPC-st7zv]

No ya remoaner ​@@K_j_M. Get ready to cry harder Starmer will be hated within months, especially by remoaners when he doesn't rejoin the EU.

[@doug8515]

@@K_j_M You'll be silent tomorrow girl

[@alfching2499]

Another old fart sir telling us nothingvwe dont know

[@EmilyWorker]

Vote Reform.

[@phillipc3286]

Putin supporters are out on here

[@silondon9010]

Or channel 4 Actors 😂😂😂😂

[@mcorco516]

I'm from County Durham. That "Russian interference" theory is establishment bullshit. If we were saying that about Labour [or even the tories], it would deemed a " far right conspiracy theory"...."fake news" or whatever.

[@aspman8965]

Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeee form

[@carelgoodheir692]

@@silondon9010 That "actor" must have been playing his part for a very long time. Farage has had to admit that he's known him as a Reform activist for yonks. It'll get looked into later. Maybe He was a plant - but it's very much more likely that the 'actor' story was a quick lie from the wily dishonest operator who owns Reform.

[@doug8515]

Reform or more of the same

[@aileenjohnson1508]

Vote Reform

[@basicconcepts1d]

An awful lot of women have a wide on for Nigel. Disgusting.....

[@stanby2712]

All the so called patriots wanting to vote fascist; cognitive dissonance.

[@leegould5306]

🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧 VOTE FOR REFORM UK THURSDAY 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧

[@stanby2712]

We fought the war against fascism ; why would you vote for it now

[@DanielEarlester]

Vote Reform

[@realitywins9020]

ZERO SEATS ZERO SEATS ZERO SEATS

[@catherinehanner284]

Talk about hedging your bets. This guy so over egged by media.

[@bobtahoma]

He is predicting the worse vote for the Tories since the 1830s. Yes. EIGHTEEN-thirties. And you think that is hedging your bets? Lmfao.

[@catherinehanner284]

@@bobtahoma between 50 and 150 seats? Then depending on which poll. Then they could be between 5 and 10% inaccurate. Then, then, then. In other words you don't know any more than the rest of us.

[@dannyjonze]

ridiculous, if you didnt know this you must be living in a cave.50 to 150 seats do me a favour.

[@AndyKing1963]

121 :)

[@joangordon3376]

50 to 150 seats? Talk about hedging your bets!

[@carelgoodheir692]

Given the uncertainties these wide parameters are the best guess that he can make. I've thought all along that there would be a slight Tory rally at the last moment, which seems to be happening. That suggests Tory representation nearer 150 than 50. But Labour will still get a big majority🙂

[@troglodytestroglodytes220]

Polling guru my arse. Let’s see how wrong he is tomorrow.

[@OwDoRegularDave]

This comment will age badly.

[@TooDarnSoulful]

Turnout for reform !

[@christopherbentley7289]

Your musical tastes look rather more savoury than your political ones.

[@TooDarnSoulful]

@@christopherbentley7289 I will say the same to, why can you not accept that not everyone shares your political opinon ? I want our borders controlled and numbers kept sensible to protect our public services .whati is wrong with that? Please tell me?

[@Carol-dt6bu]

I’ll be turning out for Reform and so will my family and extended family all 39 of us are voting Reform, had enough of the lies from Liblabcon.

[@christopherbentley7289]

@@TooDarnSoulful That is all well and good but I get a sense of rather more disturbing undercurrents with Reform UK of there being an amorphous Globalist cabal 'out there' determined to override the British people, potentially dragging people in very paranoid Q-Anon-like directions. I also would not like to see the UK pulled closer variously to Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, both of whom are worryingly close to Nigel Farage.

[@JohnCooper-m8o]

Vote for Reform!

[@michaelmazowiecki9195]

Reform is led by a Trump and Putin fan/ally. That disqualifies him.

[@johnclegg1923]

Hissing 🐍 Fartage no can do Labour all the way 🎉.

[@seanmcgarrigan3942]

We hope a defeat and we hope for accountability we hope for justice for corruption in high places, but I think the public will still suffer apathy in politics and media misleading and lies for self interest and the public taken for fools, every one needs to vote and vote them out.

[@UtubeRwokeLefties]

I still remember the polls predicting a Labour win last election.

[@ScruffyTubbles]

I did some thinking. It could be 58. Some say 65. I doubt it will be 150. More likely the lower end but max of about 120 I think.

[@philspur1882]

That sound you can hear is the wailing of gen Z as they realise they won’t be giving up their weekends for national service 🙃🙂

[@StoatLoxley]

Between 50 and 150 ? And they call this guy an expert? Just another actor.

[@silondon9010]

Vote ❎ Reform UK

[@giabe8470]

If you want another liar

[@Cashisking464]

​@@giabe8470Like starmer 😂😂

[@martinvairy5587]

Vote reform.

[@royrj5517]

This the bloke that put Corbyn and Johnson at 50-50?

[@narcher91]

No

[@kevinturvey8213]

RISK???? get real...

[@portmanjohn1]

I'm not quite first

[@tonycooper4141]

Good point!

[@bearsbreeches]

Well soon know!

[@anllpp]

0❤❤❤❤❤0000000000

[@kevoreilly6557]

70-110

[@nizviz]

As many as that? What surpried me is how well their red counterparts are doing. The government could be prorogued early next year if Starmer is let loose.

[@johnmichaelson9173]

Oh isn't that scary, smh.

[@EdMcF1]

There is a lot of inertia in politics, 180 seats for the Conservatives. 1 or 2 taxis-worth for Reform.

[@BenJ2020]

Vote Reform!

[@DaleHanson-nw9yc]

Labour X

[@CarolAnnRunham]

In their dreams i don't think so its over for The Tories

[@MIEJ4]

And yet labour of 1997 have lost almost everything they did……. A PR system would make this much less likely. It is critical that it is done asap to prevent the Tories coming back in and selling/destroying everything labour build back up, for their own selfish personal gain at the expense of most people.

[@npcoo337ooo7]

Don’t listen to the polls . We are all voting Reform .

[@patrickenright3874]

vote reform

[@annarichardson7794]

Dont care still voting for Reform

[@PoppiesAndPride]

VOTE REFORM LETS HAVE A CHANGE

[@rayhalls8582]

Here's hoping the Torys get no seats and REFORM GET THEM ALL

[@bonariablackie4047]

Find out who the tactical vote is in your constituency and vote for that party to oust as many Tories as possible. Remember your ID. And DON'T SPLIT THE TACTICAL VOTE ANYWHERE. We want the Tories on 10 seats or less. And no, that doesn't mean voting for Nutter Tories that call themselves Reform.

[@alanjane4605]

Come on REFORM. You are our only hope.

[@leonardjump7629]

Dream on fool........

[@lindavid1975]

Please don't vote. Apathy will send the best message that all and neither political parties can sort a broken system.

[@michaelillingworth6433]

Wrong. Do vote, just don't vote for either Labour or Conservative. I'm voting Reform. Time to end the merry go round of labour and Conservative parties swapping places every 10 to 15 year's

[@EmilyWorker]

People must vote. It is wrong not too. Even if you vote for the candidate who has no chance

[@oojimmyflip]

if you want change you get out and vote for it , its no use abstaining and not voting.

[@bluestream50]

wake up

[@NPC-st7zv]

​@@EmilyWorkerwould agree if none of the above was a choice.

[@photoman3579]

Perhaps the Tories will go back to some core policy and ethos as in the Thatcher era !

[@basicconcepts1d]

@photoman3579 Ding Dong the Witch is Dead.