South Central Pacific To Try Again!

[@karenpeters4457]

Thank you Mark!

[@mxb5346]

Thanks!

[@Stormsurf001]

Thank you so much for your contribution MXB!

[@jakemarlow8998]

Forgot to mention that your new Hi-Def wave models are amazing! Thanks for creating those.

[@Stormsurf001]

Thanks Jake! And Hi-Def hindcasts for the global and the regional models are built and hindcast data is loading. I'll make those public in a week or so.

[@jakemarlow8998]

@@Stormsurf001 How funny ... I was going to ask about those but didn't want to appear too greedy!

[@coachnate1]

Great report as always Mark, back to work so afternoon surf again hoping for some good old nm windswell...

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Coach - Wow, they have you starting back early. Guess you have to get ready and start prep'ing for the kids. Hope you have a great years and some good students.

[@jakemarlow8998]

Thanks Mark! Seems like it's been a few years since we had a normal active SoHemi season. Hopefully we get one next summer!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Jake - Yeah, I'm not even sure what normal is anymore. We had a bunch of good New Zealanders this year, but the windswell really messed all of them up here in the north. Like you said, maybe next year things will be better.

[@carmellobuscemi4725]

Thanks Mark, a few fun grovelers, but the struggle is real down here Dana Point to San Onofre. Pray for surf! 🤙

[@Stormsurf001]

Thanks so much Carmello for your donation! Yeah, I haven't surfed since the last real southern hemi swell maybe 3 weeks ago. I think I'm finally gonna have to just go out and ride the windswell just to get wet. UGH....

[@mxb5346]

⭐The best programming on Sundays. 🤘

[@Stormsurf001]

Thanks MXB! We try to keep it interesting.

[@timkasten343]

Thanks Mark! I like the new global model.

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Tim - Thanks so much for your contribution! Yeah, I'm kinda stoked on it too. And hopefully this week I'll get the hindcast working on it.

[@AngelYZ125]

I just want to say that I really appreciate the timeline breakdowns ... i think thats what they're called haha idk, I just know I appreciate the extra effort it takes to put those in. Thank you

[@Stormsurf001]

HI Angel - Thanks so much. Someone suggested I do that about a year or so ago. At first it was kinda difficult to figure it all out. But now I've gotten pretty fast at just scrolling through the video and building the chapter markers. And with an hour long video, I think it's pretty essential so folks can just go to the places they are most interested in.

[@AngelYZ125]

@@Stormsurf001 All your hardwork is very much appreciated my friend 👍

[@svlonestar7645]

Good stuff. Bro, your info is important to cruisers as well.

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi SV! Thanks so much. I'm glad it's useful to hopefully everyone.

[@evolutionmoto]

The PDO is gonna switch over, man… I can feel it! Winter 25/26 is going to be bitchen

[@Stormsurf001]

Evolution...I'm so hoping your are correct! We need the PDO to switch desperately. Here's to hoping! And thanks so much for your contribution.

[@mxb5346]

🔴SOMEONE Needs to Sacrifice a Lit Surfboard to the Surf Gods like we did in the 70's & 80's ...this is Ridiculous. 👎👎 All my boards are New or I would. 😎

[@gundolarry]

LMAO nice one :)

[@Kcin_48]

All the more reason for your sacrifice

[@Stormsurf001]

Exactly - Or maybe even a group sacrifice, all steamed live on You Tube simultaneously haha !

[@jakemarlow8998]

I just noticed that the altimetry for Thursday's storm was 48-52'! For the first time, I used the swell calculator that you have linked on your website using the larger max swell height. It shows that the forerunners will be 25 seconds. I can't believe that is correct. I'm curious to see what happens with this swell. It looks like Dana Point is about 45 degrees off the GCP. Do you have a link for a chart/table that shows the resulting swell reduction for the various degrees of angular spreading? I vaguely recall you mentioning that there's minimal reduction for under 30 degrees. I'm curious about 40, 50 and 60 degrees. Thanks!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Jake - Yeah, that 52 ft reading is just one measurement, so it could be biased on the high side. But the highest 15 reading average was 47.7 ft, which like you mentioned, is quite high. So yes, that is how one gets a 25 sec period, with very high sea heights which is indicative of alot of wind blowing and transferring energy into the ocean. But it has to be aimed right at your beach. To your question, how much of that will translate into swell pushing north to Southern CA? To me it looks like the Great Circle path up to CA is almost 90 degree off the main swell track. And yeah, like you said, once you're more than 30 degrees off the main track, things get weird and are less predictable, and alot less size arrives than what the calculator will suggest. At 90 degrees I'd say we'll be lucky to get 10% of what coming off the main track, and we won't get the super long period energy either. The storm was almost falling east-southeast, so I'm not hopeful. Energy will show on the buoys, maybe with traces up to 20 secs. So I'd say this is more of an 'educational' storm than a real 'surfing' storm. That is, it's a good storm to practice building a forecast using the calculator, but I wouldn't bet on anything. My guess is maybe there will be some 1.0-1.5 ft sets @ 18-19 secs with luck. So maybe waist to chest high with luck at top spots. It's just really hard to say with such an extreme off-angled storm. Officially, I'm thinking nothing of any real interest is to be expected. That said, if you are following the buoys very close and you're in the water at the peak if it looks decent, you might get the satisfaction of knowing you predicted it while everyone else is flailing. Ha ha. Hope that helps.

[@jakemarlow8998]

@@Stormsurf001 Thanks so much for taking the time to give me such a detailed response!

[@SRFTRD]

When was the last time the East Pacific has had 4 named storms at once?

[@Stormsurf001]

Good question - I suspect it's been a while. Out of all of that maybe Southern CA will see a few days of surf, and maybe one day of decent size. Fingers Crossed!

[@MrWarrenRetro]

Winter 26/27 is going to be bitchen for El Nino, basically 2002-03? After wet November and December 2026, then we have multi-week dry spell in January 2027 was inactive phase, then In February and March 2027 we picked up the rain, was active phase

[@MrWarrenRetro]

La Nina will be fairly for 2029-2032 another triple La Nina year!

[@markhurlock3891]

Thanks!

[@Stormsurf001]

HI Mark - Thanks so much for your generous contribution! It is very much appreciated.

[@petercarpenter-rb1ul]

Thanks!

[@Stormsurf001]

Thank YOU Peter! - I do really appreciate your contribution.

[@SladeFester]

Thanks!

[@Stormsurf001]

Wow! That is s very generous contribution Slade. Thank you so much! I really appreciate it. Let me know if there's anything I can do for you.

[@eslate]

Thanks!

[@Stormsurf001]

Thank you so much ESlate! Hope you're getting some down your way.