Speedrunning in 2033

[@MrEstarion]

The meta is expose cheaters or get exposed as one

[@MrJWTH]

Number 6, Billy Mitchell will still be suing people to get his Donkey Kong score reinstated.

[@Rainbow-Dash]

Less runs being performed on actual hardware as a nes is like 50 years old at that point

[@lb3613]

something i wonder is how older/younger the playerbase is gonna be

[@vwo4life706]

All the old timers are just waiting for the youngsters to top out. Then we start dropping PBS till the human limit son!

[@HonkeyKongLive]

Older players will always fall off. Reaction time slows, and high level speed running is murder on your hands. Kosmic has mentioned having to do a ton of stretches and rehab.

[@PowerfulMint]

I was halfway expecting this to be a joke topic, but then left with a genuinely thought-provoking video. Storster delivers the goods once again.

[@HonkeyKongLive]

AI feels like the future of TASing, but I don't know if it's feasible. It would have to essentially do every single input possible on every frame to find paths and for modern games that seems insane.

[@paulhudalla9527]

AI can run through simple games for sure. 3D games seem too hard for now, there are just too many variables to solve unless its a super computer. ThaRixer has a good video on AI in speedrunning, right here. kzbin.info/www/bejne/iqiog5ubqLeprK8

[@SpeedrunningSimplified]

I am extremely dyslexic apparently and thought I was watching a video on Speedrunning in 2023, haha.

[@Storster]

I almost titled this video "Speedrunning in 2023" lmao

[@SpeedrunningSimplified]

@@Storster I almost typed my comment wrong so I feel you.

[@themightyripples6582]

Also, collecting physical hardware is a fun hobby on it's own, but I always disagree with gatekeeping a leaderboard by saying emu isnt allowed unless there is a very good reason

[@IAmGpro]

To add onto the emulation thing, I think homebrewed consoles (as in load from HDD) is going to appear more than emulation. The two biggest problems we'll be seeing in this form in the near future are console deterioration (including scarcity) and disc rot. But consoles themselves can be salvaged to circumvent these issues. However, I think this would move into making emulation more accepted as certain factors we believed back around the time you started are still taken into account (emulation not having significant advantages over official hardware). Note: This is mostly talking about 6th gen consoles I've been seeing this happen now in some games, especially OG XBOX games. I've seen preservation of these things being more desired than just buying the most optimal hardware this year, and in something that started only a few years ago. Also, I've spent more time thinking about all of these things more than I'd like to admit. Seeing a lot of the development like SRCom's infancy (believe it or not, there were several sites that attempted to do the same thing and failed miserably and were seen as memes since we all had either google docs or our own community websites prior to its introduction) and speedrun's niche origins to becoming a semi-unified and at least rise in being known about (I think that was 2013-2015), yeah, it's very likely we'll find either another unified site as SRCom's gone to shit, or we will go back to each community hosting its own form of moderated leaderboards, but ones that can be easily found unlike before. And, finally, which is partially unrelated, a friend of mine had made an observation of something like the "5 year rule", stating that the vast majority of speedrunners never make it past 5 years in this hobby. As such, radical community changes tend to happen in the span of around 5 years. I've seen the trend, myself, and find it oddly sad. And, in addition, those that do tend to still be too busy to keep up. Hence why old boys have a tendency to stay behind. I think this is ultimately why SMB1 has had at least one change in runner generations that are now close to (and have hit) lightning 4-2.

[@ronin4902]

7:15 unexpected Polish moment

[@nutsi3]

5:50 they used to say that about chess… we all know how that turned out

[@a-bombmori7393]

The traveling salesman problem is NP hard. Obviously, not every speedrun has a traveling salesman problem in it, but I think it's a good example of how optimizing routing for time efficiency is a very difficult task. I personally don't think A.I. will even be a tool in many people's tool kits.

[@smmbod]

So happy to see that you uploaded! Thanks for another great video.

[@themightyripples6582]

I'm sorry for posting so many comments in a row, but this is interesting to me lol... So as far as AI goes, some games can be simulated without even being rendered - so the simulations can run much faster then if they were to be rendered. This has recently been used to have an AI do simulations of a stage in Doom to figure out how to recreate a rare glitch known as the all-ghost glitch. The runner who did this used the set up found by the AI to save 2 second on an IL run in doom and has used it to get a few other records as well, including a full game record. I personally think its possible to have an AI perform speedruns and also discover new routes, but it'll be in the distant future and we would likely have to tell it not to try certain things which could lead to more undiscovered tech. More likely we will use AI's to focus on short segments of games to try and understand or discover an exploit or glitch

[@wolilo]

1:53 Top G

[@turtles10]

my hope is that the community as a whole will be more willing to bring in accessibility features, especially for runs that are way outside the range of world record. like, the fact that there are 4 hour categories where you cant take breaks on some pretty popular games is insane. or the fact that taking a break in an SMO speedrun that lasts 7-9 hours means you get put on a separate leaderboard. also ridiculous. i hope that, like emulation, options like breaks, turbo, IGT, etc. are accepted as accessibility options rather than some sort of cheat.

[@RedRattheGod]

This Guy Is Underrated, Props To this legend.

[@cwtrain]

So you're telling me the majority thinks this guy sucks? Disagree. Hardly underrated.

[@RedRattheGod]

@@cwtrain Yeah but he only has 27K

[@gravitywaves2796]

As far as AI goes, I'm not sure it'll be within 10 years, but I'd bet my left nut within 25-30 years especially depending where we are on quantum computing it will be able to out perform any human in speed-running, especially any 1990's or earlier console run as it simply will be able to consider all viable options.

[@DoctorSwellman]

Welcome back! Can’t wait to see what you’ve got cooking 👀

[@axlthunder]

a quite thought provoking video. my thoughts on the points: emulation is the norm: while i think there will be an increase in emulated runs as time goes on, i also think there will be a demand for those people who can keep consoles running by fixing them. as there will still be those people who want to keep playing on the original hardware, and i think that number of people will be more than it may seem. it very likely wouldn't become a business of sorts, but i think it'd turn into a nice side hustle for some people. also, for disc based systems, optical drive emulators/hard drives will also see an increase. as the disc drive is often the first thing to start giving issues, ontop of the rising concerns around disc rot reaching the human limit: i can definitely see this happening. not much i can really add here the future of ai: i agree that the furthest ai will likely go is being another tool in our arsenal. there's just something about human creativity that i don't believe ai will ever truly match. not for an extremely long time, anyway community shift: yeah, i think the overall scene will continue becoming more connected. the individual communities can see radical shifts in a short time period though, as i have observed during my tenure in this hobby(11 years, as of writing this comment) that most speedrunners don't make it to the 5 year mark. it sounds to me this may be somewhat related to that new generation in smb1 you mentioned, however i have not closely watched that community, so i will not say definitively. i have, however, observed a similar effect to what i'm describing in other games a shift in platforms: i definitely think youtube will stay the primary video hosting site for the foreseeable future. twitch i think is a bit more vulnerable to a new platform overtaking as a streaming hub, but i still see it as not very likely. as much as these two platforms get wrong, others just don't have the chops to pull it off. src, however, i can see eventually being superseded by something else. the game i moderate for example, as small as it is, already has it's own leaderboards site for tracking things that would be an absolute pain in the behind to implement in the src ones. speedrunners are definitely a different breed overall to the average video/stream watcher/creator. and if there's a better option(whenever that comes to be), there's definitely a chance of a mass exodus. src is already not sitting well with a number of people currently, myself included. a big reason my community still uses it is for visibility due to it being the current main leaderboard hub for this hobby this is all merely my opinion however. i could be wrong about everything i just typed out lol, but that's fine

[@themightyripples6582]

"A lot of this is hypothetical and is..." as soon as you started saying this I was like "man it's kinda sad people feel the need to put an explanation so obvious in their videos" - buuuut then I got to the part that made it a joke, lmao!

[@slpn2314]

i predict a universal console for og games that can play and download the original disc to the console

[@Akuretaki_Nikolay]

yo storster, was waiting for it, ill watch that after verifying 7 runs gimme 10min :)

[@Schicksal1988]

This zelda 1 footage seems oddly familiar. 🤔 Good video!👍

[@relo999]

having been a console collector and modder for some 15 years now, console cost (and game cost) is mainly due to what I would call the "investors". People that buy to resell, and the last decade prices skyrocketed due to both increased popularity and (mainly) youtubers using popularizing flipping games. However in a lot of older generations cost is going down, Atari, NES, SNES, Megadrive, etc. all are slowly going down. And like any economist will tell you, prices always go up quickly but down slowly. In 10 years I reckon the trend of game flipping is dead and prices have plummeted as even at this point it's little different from NTF and crypto BS, a bunch of people buying specifically to resell for profit. Also the breakdown of consoles is pretty rare unless extremely poorly handled, with some exceptions that are functional timebombs (like the Sega CD, especially model 1's). Granted the state I see some recent consoles in is just abysmal. So I don't think access to real hardware would be a real issue in most cases. I'd reckon the real issue for most would simply be using the console as already most new TV's already don't support SCART, composite, component, RF, etc. only HDMI especially for speedrunners. And of course recording that gameplay which is arguably already an issue with handhelds.

[@grandmastermario3695]

8 years is not a long time for speedrunning let alone casual gaming, I've been speedrunning for about 12 years playing for over 20, although I've only been able to make my runs official for just less than 2 years.

[@AH-uz3fx]

Do you know who was at the end playing Luigi's mansion with WALL-E on their layout?

[@vwo4life706]

Great concept. Haven’t even watched yet but I’m sure Imma love it. Keep up the great content dude. I just turned 40 and thanks to guys like you, I’m now the old guy who justifies how it’s cool to watch other people play video games on the internet…

[@supizgamerpro101]

I have a feeling this video will get popular quickly.

[@ChrisTheCasual]

For a very long time, I have been trying to create an emulator category, and most of the time I get told not to buy original hardware. We also allow glitches, but not emulators when glitches are exploits and exploits are cheating, just as most communities consider emulation to be cheating.

[@Nightcaat]

Good video :] I was here 2023-02-03

[@Stexen]

I bet quantum computers will play a part in the future of speed running

[@bane2201]

My 2 cents is that for major games, finding glitches is the only viable strat, and AI and brute force will be great there. (See Karl's newest video about Doom for a great example of brute forcing.) The idea that an AI can determine an entire route seems kinda absurd, but it might be possible to throw some fast routes at an AI and see if it can find a faster route by reordering the tasks.

[@suborb_]

great video!

[@VertUnderscore]

babe wake up new storster video

[@grandmastermario3695]

There's already been crap ton of WRS beat in 2023 already.

[@twipplo]

maybe there could be people making their own tas systems for games just to fake a wr with it, what do you guys think?

[@VertUnderscore]

My predictions: More modern games will switch to in game time, as opposed to real time, to allow emulators. Any% will no longer be the most popular category in many older video games. Miscellaneous and meme categories will become the new norm instead. A new wave of speedrunners will come, and the current relevant speedrunners will go. For many, it's a hobby that a lot of people don't have time for anymore. A lot of kids currently in elementary and middle school will be speedrunning their favorite games in 10 years. Carpetless will be done in 120 star runs. Don't at me. 1:19 96 exit will be possible, or within reach. There was a human theory TAS done a few years ago by a runner I'd like to not mention, that ended up with a 1:20. This was before modern strats like boss kills were viable in human RTA, before ARK was discovered, etc. AI will be used to help optimize TASes. I know Sethbling's Mari/O actually "discovered" a glitch (that was already known to the community) in smb1. Who's to say that we won't use it to discover glitches not currently known to humans? Hell, glitches in SMW are still being discovered, as recently as of a few weeks ago. SMB1 is so close to being optimized already, we will have a perfect speedrun within the next decade. Minecraft speedrunning will still be around until Mojang/Microsoft decides not to update the game anymore. Fuck twitch. Honestly. Unfortunately, it's the best option in terms of community, but it is not a good platform. It's chat feature is the best of all platforms, and that's what's going to keep it relevant. But especially with how they handle ad blockers, holy shit it's bad.

[@mariannamennuni8988]

Now tell me about speedrunning in 2074

[@fireyfan25]

I feel like official emulators will be acceptable as “original hardware”.

[@chessOb]

4-2 was perfected ...

[@Akuretaki_Nikolay]

1:00 no and i actually started to play on emulator rather than my consoles !

[@Akuretaki_Nikolay]

4:15 i dont think new Gen will play those old games, but its just my pronostic

[@Akuretaki_Nikolay]

7:45 i am competing agasint a JP right now !! lol

[@Akuretaki_Nikolay]

10:00 now i really want to quit speedrunning, congrats storster. Because all my 11 000 runs are unlisted , if the leaderboard platform changes i m nobody

[@SpitefulAZ]

There will be a great war between gamers and athletes. The gamers will win at first because war is like a video game. Then the athletes will deploy EMPs, turning the war back to a place where athletes have the advantage. And wr have no more electricity. And the speedrunners go extinct.

[@FlyHec]

Many of my IL times will still be untouched. 😁

[@neekopat]

I hope someone 10 years from now sees this. One thing that I can almost guarantee is that the number of fake runs will increase as AI gets better at running games. We've already seen that it is capable of playing FPS games so to get it to play with human-like movement is not unlikely. Major changes to the review/verification process will have to be made. Games from the PS5/Xbox Series X era will start to gain more popularity as I bet many kids who have been playing new console games will get older and speedrun their favourite games from their childhood. Todd Rogers and Billy Mitchell will continue with their lies, 40-50 years after their world records. Speedrun historians like SummoningSalt will likely continue to make videos, with some refreshes to previous world record history videos. In terms of finding new strategies, the lack of source code being released by companies and the ever-increasing security and complexity will make it much harder to find bugs, but at the same time, programmers are getting smarter and the use of AI can help with these problems, not to mention how sloppily many games are put together these days. As a result, I will not be surprised if game engines like Unity and Unreal are studied deeply to find ways to optimize speedruns. Streaming games will make it harder for speedrunners to have frame-perfect movements, so I don't think that speedrunners will use streaming services, even if the latency improves. TikTok is not the future of speedrunning; in its current state, content is served and not as traditional as KZbin. KZbin will likely dominate. No platform other than Odysee (and TikTok) has even a shot at taking over KZbin. I wonder how many I got right and how many got wrong, i'll be waiting

[@paulhudalla9527]

4:46 In regards to AI, ThaRixer has a good video on it here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/iqiog5ubqLeprK8 Something that has potential for sure, but I agree that it is more likely to be used as a tool, not as something doing fully runs. It could likely run through a simple game as ThaRixer says in his video, something on the NES or Atari 2600. As for emulation, I don't think real console runs will ever completely die out. However, Emulation is going to be a great tool for letting more people into speedruns of older games. I'm not sure if it will become the most popular category, but it sure will increase in the amount of runs. Platform changes are iffy. Twitch and KZbin are MASSIVE platforms, that have lots of problems. KZbin fixes some problem, while at the same time creating more problems soooo. I'm not really a Twitch User (do have an account, but don't watch any streams there), so I can't say much about that. Maybe someone with more experience can explain that. SR.C is a site I used to visit any chance I got. I never go there anymore other than when I'm comparing my Portal Glitchless times, which I have been playing recently, no videos though, so cannot submit or have to for checking some record. The community will hopefully become more diverse with different races/ genders being represented. I already see a bigger interest in speedrunning from compared to a few years ago. Damn, long comment. Anyway, good stuff as always Storster, glad to have you back! Also hope you have a great 2023! To 50k! (hopefully, or higher)

[@amseager]

My wish is that we'll finally get rid of this overpopularity of nintendo consoles/titles and switch more to smth else like sega genesis

[@Patralgan]

Hi me in 2033. You're really old.

[@axilie]

Trans rights

[@incognitiosaystransrights]

Based

[@honeybee9455]

Trans lefts

[@souptime8635]

I hope that AI can generate emulations of games, although this would be illegal due to piracy.

[@VertUnderscore]

with the way emulation currently works, it wouldn't be illegal. AI could potentially help find better ways to emulate the hardware that the games run on. We are not going to have AI generate ROMs, as we already have that.

[@madlad255]

This was a really interesting video, and I can tell a lot of thought went into the predictions! I personally agree with most of what you said, except maybe the fact that KZbin is going to remain a big player for video hosting in ten years. While I think KZbin will definitely still be around then, history has shown that some of the most used mediums or sites can unexpectedly be overshadowed by something new. (TV, radio, etc.) Here's a very British man who can word that way better than I can: kzbin.info/www/bejne/o4apZZScrbKjh80

[@Drusskye]

O kurwa kao 2 XDDDD

[@JeremyMKWii]

stoder

[@kylewatson6252]

I just peed myseld

[@the_meower]

awsome. 👍

[@inoariusu]

pog

[@warsb06]

Whoa I'm early af

[@inverse_of_zero]

First 😊

[@floppa_gamer1111]

hello edit 1st comment still here

[@nat_cat2923]

great video!