Stephanie Pomboy: Count On A LOT Of Pain Before The Fed Pivots

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKETS? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at www.wealthion.com
There's a lot of disagreement right now about where the markets are headed.
Much of Wall Street is hoping the rally from the first half of the year will re-ignite, and there's a fair amount of technical analysis suggesting it very well may.
But more investors are starting to worry about the impact of today's bond yields. Suddenly, talk is everywhere about how high they are and fear is growing that they may still rise materially higher.
And of course, fundamental analysts have been warning for quarters now that the lag effect from central banks' historically aggressive rate hikes and balance sheet reduction will be arriving in force soon -- sure to drag economic growth AND financial asset prices downwards.
So what's most likely to happen from here?
We're fortunate to be joined by analyst Stephanie Pomboy today. She's CEO of MacroMavens and at the top of the list of most popular experts with the Wealthion's audience.
Follow Stephanie at macromavens.com/
Or on Twitter at @spomboy
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 The lag effect of rate hikes.
3:45 Recession on the way.
10:00 The state of the consumer.
16:30 How the fed could pivot to quantitative easing.
20:39 How financial assets underperform once the fed pivots.
24:57 How the deficit will compromise economic growth going forward.
32:05 Why was it so hard to hire people during the pandemic?
38:20 Corporate bankruptcies and employment.
44:13 Default rates for speculative grade debt.
49:28 The fed forced people to go further out on the risk curve.
57:34 Zoltan Posner and resource producers.
______________________
At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world’s top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance.
We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you.
There’s no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis.
Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion’s endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth.
SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: www.wealthion.com/
Subscribe to our KZbin channel / @wealthion
Follow us on Twitter / wealthion
#inflationdeflation #recession2023 #lageffect
_________________
IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields.
While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as official investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor.
We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so.
The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust.

[@Wealthion]

LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT PRICE for Wealthion's online conference on Oct 21 at wealthion.com/conference

[@scottbonata5145]

You know the bond King and the money GPS believe we are in the global recession what do you? Plus deflation is going to hit us because of China's us being America.

[@wakcackle3555]

Why was it so hard to hire back personnel? Because the Corporations had stupid requirements for untested-'emergency'-intravenous injections. Governments required, Large Corporations forced by "Insurance" policies, and the medical system. What percentage of the job market became JAB-oriented Adam?

[@jayboegs6268]

A burrito at Chipolte is $15. Cascade at Costco - same price - 12 fewer tablets. This boat is going down and going down fast.

[@stevensmiddlemass2072]

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the central bank may hike interest rates further and will likely need to keep rates elevated for a "substantial" period of time. I’m thinking of investing $400k into my stock portfolio but unsure about the market.

[@colleen.odegaard]

Amazing! Could shed more light or info on how you came along such world class expertise and how to possibly get across to this aforementioned individual?

[@colleen.odegaard]

I just came across her web page, I went through her resume and I must say it was quite impressive. I reached out to her and I have scheduled a call with her.

[@mikerudd4943]

Stephanie is always a lucid voice in the craziness

[@user-kb3wh9xo1s]

She just keeps running her mouth with fillers

[@innercore1131]

The Pain Before the Pivot...consumer spending is the new "pushing on a string"! Thank you W and Steph!! Finally someone understands the math....but do they understand the consequence$?

[@555frontier]

Can't wait... we all love Stephanie

[@quixomega]

Nice to hear Stephanie's view on the current situation, it was so clearly right there ready to spill out of every seam in that interview she did for Adam a few weeks ago and it's nice to have a clear account of it here.

[@themarkandmelteam]

"There is nothing worse than leverage in reverse" is a great quote from Stephanie! From 2006 to 2010 Mark was helping instruct home sellers with short sales and I was reviewing 10 to 12 real estate appraisals a day, with the majority not even mentioning an unstable market, even while foreclosures were picking up to the point that I had to tell the Appraisers to recognize and note those foreclosures on the report! Thanks for this great interview to try and analyze everything realistically and not being too optimistic to the point of getting over leveraged.

[@bernie57]

I"m a commercial RE appraiser licensed in NYS. good comments thanks!

[@supersteve8305]

Stephanie is awesome. I always enjoy and appreciate her insight.

[@keimo2007]

In what way, she's been watching this bull from the sidelines.

[@jeffreyestrada5935]

The best financial channel. No doubt IMO.

[@benzun9600]

😂wealthion has been bears since SPY as 365 last year. His advisors sat out last 12 months rally. Wealthion is for educational purposes only not real world trading

[@douglash.8862]

Yup,. you are RIGHT, Ben And, pretty much ONLY, Tom Lee has called,.. MOST of that, rally ! @@benzun9600 Finally, Inflation is,.. "On a Glide path, DOWNWARD" per Tom Lee recently and,.. Ms Pomboy, IS,.. WRONG ! FED PAUSE,.. coming !!! I'm guessing, SPY 500 around,.. 5,300 to 5,500 at, Christmas ! Michael Burry, will have, his Head handed to him by,.. being "Short" ! Ugly Recession,.. NEXT year,.. maybe ?? NO One, can predict,..

[@rjdebruyn]

Stimulating by printing money first is the height of stupidity.

[@abcdjhffkuggf]

But it may allow them to save face on the higher for longer promises. I can’t rule it out, unfortunately.

[@bretgreen5314]

Both smart and very easy on the eyes to boot. Thank you for bringing her on again Adam.

[@CL1337A]

Great show. Always love to hear Stephanie. Never sugar coats the data and facts.

[@SwissMovement]

She is great. Please invite her back as often as she is willing to come. Thank you.

[@johnminichielli8957]

I agree with Stephanie, we will have recession and deflation. I just hope I live long enough to see it and my long bond portfolio recover😢

[@a.s.r.3661]

What a fantastic discussion! Thank you to both of you for educating us!

[@txphi17]

She’s awesome!!!

[@juancpt]

Stephanie is great. Thanks Adam for bringing her back (and the cute dog of course)😀

[@billmitchell205]

Favorite guest - by a long shot.

[@UtahUPman]

I'm about as excited about the market as Stephanie's dog in the background :) Great video, Stephanie is wise - it's only logical that 'rolling-the-paper' in an environment with higher interest rates, has become a ground-swelling event.

[@heidihelo5773]

You've been knocking it out of the park. I've really enjoyed all the interviews this week. Very eye-opening.

[@Florida_Woman]

This really is a great channel. I appreciate the insight.

[@bigby6023]

But you missed out on 30% gain this year if you listened to their advice

[@gofish8181]

Love Steph!!

[@nigeljones9479]

Great interview. Steph is brilliant at putting the facts together and making an argument.

[@bla505]

Awesome insight, great interview. So glad to hear her again. Thanks Adam!

[@objectivethinker3225]

Here's the bottom line... The federal government's budget for 2023 is 6.4 trillion. In 2019 it was 4.4 trillion. That two trillion dollars is working its way into the economy somehow and propping up what would otherwise be a recession in light of the tightened monetary policy.

[@krismaitland7885]

You are in a recession,all the data you see from the governments world wide are lies.......

[@eugenefirebird8938]

Budget should be less than $2 trillion. $4.4 trillion is pure waste.

[@objectivethinker3225]

@@eugenefirebird8938 Good luck convincing the current group of modern monetary theorists in the federal government of that! Of course you and I are just too ignorant to understand that debt doesn't matter!

[@fastpistonx]

Agreed. But the national debt is the end game, no matter the fiddling around.

[@briandbeaudin9166]

​@eugenefirebird8938 what!? How could you possibly know the details of the budget enough to make such a ridiculous assertion!

[@jmer9126]

Stephanie Pomboy is an excellent guest. Thank you both

[@jerrybuckley2049]

"The markets don't seem to be anticipating the pain before the pivot. They just seem to be anticipating the pivot."

[@richardpeterson6911]

Fabulous invaluable interview with many insightful comments. Hats off to Steph and Adam!

[@Csharpflat5]

Great show and guest thanks Adam

[@metaljam7197]

You can't jump from one mountain top to another, you have to go down through the valley. The markets ignoring this principle is an awesome opportunity for those that have a patient, logical approach to investing, i.e., the waiting room pays 5.5% that is going higher, and dry powder at the right time will enable the real wealth to be realized....

[@alohastateofmind3565]

The question is how many people are on the side lines waiting to jump in which then causes an aggregate effect.

[@budalanemac3115]

What is your aim? Park your money in to the money markets for now, and shoot when ready and loaded in to something else?

[@oozieligus]

"A forecast tells you a fair bit about the forecaster. It tells you nothing about the future."

[@rdaxthedog]

I love the way you say the interest rates are high. I remember 18% mortgages

[@rockytop6077]

💯 percent on the money... shows just how far these bastards can go to crush debt borrowing idiots

[@royhooper8080]

Stephanie is a wonderful guest to have on your show.

[@MonetteRobinson]

Absolutely loving it. Putting all the jigsaw together

[@ciarancoyne9104]

Thanks a mill my financial friends🙏🏻

[@europeantechie]

I've been loving it, good conversation and thanks for sharing

[@delhume2691]

Great program

[@brianfitzsimons8737]

Great discussion..two incredibly intelligent observers. Thanks for the insights.

[@BB-sf7jv]

Stephanie and Lance are the Best!!!

[@llamamama1003]

Ty Stephanie🎉

[@Willfully_Ignorant]

I don’t think a divided government slows spending anymore. We have a Republican Congress who ram on “fiscal responsibility” in this last election that turned around after being elected and cut the biggest blank check that’s ever been cut in a non-emergency time. As he said we’re still spending like it war-time and the Republicans are responsible for that. They hold the majority so they are responsible and they were supposed to be the only party left that cared about out of control spending. I’m so furious about it I seriously don’t think I cal pull the trigger for any of them this next election unless they were one of the few that voted no on this last budget bill.

[@tomdonovan4842]

Again thank you / excellent insightful and timely review

[@toddb6576]

It must be metaphor week. "Bodies floating to the surface". Keeps us entertained while getting amazing information. Thank you both.

[@kevinobrien9271]

Not to mention “circles of hell” 😅

[@biden-putin-stalin]

Stephanie is the best! Luke Gromen made the point, that is so true, that the Fed will never get inflation under control unless the fiscal authorities in Washington cut back on deficit financed spending. The Fed's job is to preseve the value of the currency. Deficit spending is running wild from Washington. If the Fed is serious about controlling inflation they will allow interest rates to rise with excessive government borrowing and spending. The Fed is after the irresponsible spending aurthorities is Washington. Everyone focuses on the private sector going into recession. A recession makes the Fed's job harder as that means even higher deficits due to less revenue to the government. Reduced goods and services makes shortages and higher prices even more likely. So, expect higher inflation and higher interest rates until the Federal government realizes that they must curtail deficit spending and implement growth in the economy, more goods and services, policies.The Fed cannot implement those policies. We are in for very hard times. Stagflation!!

[@88peyote]

Thank you for your work Adam!

[@RadicalRocks]

Great discussion, looking forward to part 2

[@Calmly-replied111]

Firstly Willamina is just so adorable 😍 secondly Stephanie does a wonderful job is her summation of the USA economy. She use words that are friendly to newcomers in the language of financial markets

[@georgelien]

We love you, Stephanie !

[@antoinecappelleri185]

Great interview!

[@peterchung7151]

Steph is Fantastic & so humble :) Love her 2 points on liquidity & gasoline (& I would food) prices! The 1st hitting the big wigs & the 2nd hitting the everyday people on our streets.

[@commissarcarr2463]

Bank of Japan Slowly being dragged into Raising its Rate. Inflation eating the Japanese people to point they cannot afford food. 😢😢

[@caroledoerr6872]

Great interview, Stephanie.

[@jmcmob608]

Thank you very much...

[@FuzzyLogic890]

Great interview! Thank you

[@crouchhill]

Wow Stephanie makes so much sense ❤

[@carisalex]

Great interview. Please please please keep doing those timestamps!

[@asafgr]

thanks! enjoyed this interview very much!

[@larrypettie3022]

We love you Stephanie.

[@popsmcgee9775]

exceptional interview!

[@KarlJonsson-dn7iw]

Stephanie Pomboy, what a wonderful professionnel in these matters.

[@Dowell318]

Love the doggie in the background. He's like "wake me up when something happens".

[@karlad8628]

Great guest!

[@slowridefpv9668]

Can’t wait!

[@lundyhill3012]

Stephanie is great - more!

[@barryshaw5660]

Thanks for the real world discussion, great channel to get different opinions.

[@m3_melody]

Excellent show!

[@squarewheel142]

Very fond of Steph's opinion!

[@walterkuzniarjr3880]

keep bringing us more Pomboy!

[@henrypadilla7571]

If our economy is a race horse, our government is very fat jockey. How is that for an analogy Adam?

[@trailguy]

fat and convinced that the solution to too much weight is to eat more, and desserts only.

[@Wealthion]

Good one, but be sure to add that the horse is starving

[@trailguy]

@@Wealthion the horse is complaining that its starving, but it's grandfather would call it a pu$$y.

[@nauy]

Not a race horse. A tired, malnourished work horse dying from an infestation of parasites.

[@shawnkristoferu8303]

Fat, lazy, & corrupt. You forgot the other two.

[@DanKohan]

It shows how the Fed, which is like the 'money boss,' can affect our money and investments. As a real estate investor, I've definitely been keeping a close eye on these trends. The idea that we might have some tough times before things get better is a good reminder to be ready for different money situations. Thanks for explaining this! 👍

[@adamarakelian5666]

Thank You, Adam. Stephanie is one of the short list of speakers I follow. Macro mavens is something on my subscription list for this coming yearly budget!

[@jdel2151]

Excellent. Would love to see you interview Weston Nakamura.

[@sunzeneise]

Not that question her pov, I feel IT’S to very very very bad. And, worse yet,because of the World of Lies we inhabit. The corruption is unfathomable, but it’s DEEP.

[@austinsmith1816]

Very much agree with her. Great guest

[@christinastaryarsky8670]

So excellent, your guests are more in tune than the fed on their best day. Thank you Adam and Stephanie.

[@mittstewart5089]

Thanks

[@ddprepper5227]

Excellent report 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍

[@DarrenSmith-zz6fk]

I agree with her thesis we are wrong until we are eventually right

[@Hotel_Chuck]

Great interview!!!

[@celestialfix]

Spot on.

[@mattanderson6672]

Thank you to Stephanie for her analysis I really enjoy listening to her Love the dog too Brilliant interview!

[@adamspekasspekassa5391]

Thanks...😊

[@AK3289]

In Stephanie we trust!

[@bindiuradu]

Great interview.

[@jerrysteffy7900]

As always a super guest and discussion. I agree at the first sign of real pain the Fed back peddles and starts the easing and the money printing to try to bail out the downturn or financial accident. But think what happens in real terms for investors : treasury yields drop , the money market fund interest rates drops and you are forced into buying equities that will be even more over valued and priced due to Fed increased liquidity. It will be like 2022 again where it will be difficult to have a choice of where to turn to make any money. For me it points to having gold and oil and gas funds in your account for when these events unfold.

[@thomashuang8401]

As soon as rates drop down money will flow out of money markets and high yield savings except for designated emergency funds

[@ChrisGenXer]

So happy you had Stephanie on! She has one of the most brilliant minds out there, coupled with class and the fact she’s just so easy on the eyes lol.

[@frankdattilo1836]

Stephanie is an amazingly engaging and lovely lady. A real pleasure listening to such a knowledgeable femme

[@speedracer609]

Love this woman

[@Peter-MH]

She’s always a great listen - very analytical.

[@Atlas5-jk8fy]

This was a great podcast everything covered in detail. She's smart

[@audiophileman7047]

Coolio, Adam! Loved the cliff hanger at the end. 👍👍👍

[@lazerblades9501]

Just saw this interview recap story on MSN splash page! Congrats Adam!

[@Wealthion]

Thanks for flagging. Can you provide the link? (looked on MSN but couldn't find it)

[@lucretiz]

This one really hit home I think job shedding is underway

[@cacaoperesoso732]

She is awesome

[@SteveKlare-iq7zx]

Stephanie and Danielle are the 2 I consider the most astute when it comes to the impending financial crisis/ collapse

[@andrewsema359]

You end up learning so much from these interview sessions. Thanks Wealthion and Stephanie

[@georgemcelroy1472]

Thank you. Your Both Clear. Pombomb. Macro Mavin

[@junal27]

Excellent as usual, thanks. And I love your one finger salute!😅

[@Landofsmiles999]

Stephanie's voice in my mind regarding 'keep your eyes on this space' keeps me grounded and patient

[@davidmcdevitt9071]

A favorite guest