SwiftAir DHL Boeing B737-400 Crash near Vilnius Airport

[@VASAviation]

This comment will be continuously updated as more information releases. Please leave your condolences here.

[@ChannelJanis]

As far as I read from local media, the plane crashed right next to a house, 12 people were evacuated from the house. The house was barely touched by the debris. My condolences to all involved. I wish quick recovery for the injured ones.

[@Mr.Laidukas]

13:30 did the pilot replied saying 2500 ft instead of 2700 that was commanded by approach? ?

[@VASAviation]

@@Mr.Laidukas I hear him say 2700'.

[@most-average-athelete]

@@VASAviation I've listened it 200 times at least only after your comment :) I think he says 2500

[@VASAviation]

@@most-average-athelete I hear 2700' pretty clear but still that's no factor for the crash. There are no obstacles that affect to establish the glideslope at 2500' or even 2300' as others have mentioned. You descend below the glidepath, yes, but that's ot likely the cause of the crash. 2300' is altitude check on 5 miles. They crashed 1 mile short.

[@Alex-ws9lr]

I knew the person who passed away, hes the one communicating from the plane. It is haunting to hear his voice. He was a great person. Fly high king ❤

[@NicolaW72]

My condolences.🙏 I can imagine that. I readed that the Captain passed away, so that would mean that the First Officer was Pilot Flying.

[@kristinasulikiene4364]

Spanish pilot has died, true

[@braveworld2707]

My condolences for your loss. Please convey the same to his family if it is possible. Thank you.

[@Big-zk3jv]

I call bullshit

[@sonnigundbelanglos]

I’m sorry for your loss!

[@andyq752]

Incredible that anybody survived at all given the size of the fireball. My thoughts go out to the deceased person's family, and I hope for a speedy recovery of the three injured participants. Exellent work, Victor! Thank you!

[@Linyzas]

According to local news, crew cabin during the crash, got separated from the burning fuselage. Person who was not in the cockpit has relatively minor injuries, however cockpit crew was not as lucky, with 1 dead, 1 unconscious whole time and 1 who was initially conscious but ... Not at the moment.

[@miguelangelfernandez1996]

What a tragedy...😭

[@PapaG603]

Wait the other 3 people actually survived this? There was 4 on board from what I read. I saw the accident didn't think there was anyway someone survived that after seeing the fireball on impact

[@roterhugo57]

@@Linyzas The plane did not burn on approach, only went up in flames on impact.

[@LTULithuania]

1 pilot die :(

[@gardenguy357]

that is insane that anyone survived a crash like that

[@deltafox757]

Cute sergal

[@LuKas_146]

the cockpit was separated from the burning part of the aircraft

[@Arcadiez]

probably 2 factors that helped, 1 they're a cargo flight. So whole crew in the front(4 ppl if the info is correct), nobody in the back. So the after part can take most of the impact, 2nd, they configured for landing( with gear out/flaps) and had a low approach speed, so the impact will be less. But yeah, fly blue sky.

[@yankis.]

Cockpit separation. On-site paramedics said the cockpit was far enough from the main crash site and fire, which helped to safely and quickly evacuate the survivors. That crew won the best lottery of their lives (at least for now, because two are in critical condition)

[@hannobaali_makendali]

@@gardenguy357 Quit misusing the term insane.

[@AmbiguousOne-l6g]

I work in ATC myself and also worked on occurrence investigations, here are some thoughts: 1) There are a couple of readback/hearback errors. A wrong QNH, a wrong altitude (2500 instead of 2700), and most importantly the wrong readback of the tower frequency "118 05" instead of "118 205", which most likely was the reason for no more communication at the end. The first two are not essentially important to the crash, but are signs of fatigue on both sides. 2) It especially bothers me, that the aircraft was sent to tower freq even though they never reported established on the ILS and it was obviously visible that they were still left of the LOC. 3) At the end, they were left with 4NM to go until touchdown, not established on the ILS, still being sent to tower and after reading back the wrong tower frequency they had no radio contact with ATC, still going too fast, not configured for landing... with so many things at once, there must have been enormous workload in the cockpit, while 4 miles from touch down equals 1,5 - 2 minutes remaining. That leaves much room for errors. Possible Icing issue leading to stall, possible mechanical issue, possible medical issue, possible issue with the ILS GS... Could legit be anything at this time, so no need for speculations. Wait for the investigations.

[@VASAviation]

QNH readback was correct the second time. Altitude assigned readback was correct

[@Rinnmeister]

@@VASAviation Victor, I really appreciate your videos and love how @blancolirio (big thanks for awesome channel to you too Juan!!) reference you a lot. So big thanks!! Gotta say regarding the altitude readback I also hear the pilot saying 2500 feet, listened to it with Bose-headphones...might not have mattered, but just wanted to chime in.

[@andij605]

there was not a single readback where everything was correct. it seems like they were really tired.

[@Whyyouthis]

It was 5.30 am in Vilnius and 4.30 in Leipzig. The plane must have departed around 3 in the morning (germany time), which is a really sensitive time for ones awareness. I wonder wether the crew of the plane was ending their day or starting. When I wrote my master thesis I switched to living nightime. After 5 am my brain would just shut down even if i woke up at midnight.

[@AmbiguousOne-l6g]

@@VASAviation Yes the 2nd QNH was correct, but 1st was not and was not corrected, which is a sign of fatigue or lack of awareness, same for the 2700/2500 feet readback/hearback. Both of these were not relevant later on, but for the overall picture.

[@bartcubman]

I was based at Vilnius for over 1,5 year and there is something particular to that ILS approach to runway 19. In my opinion there is an issue with the fly up glide slope signal and localiser side lobes. More than once we had false localiser captures or erratic fly up movement just prior to reaching the final approach point whilst intercepting the ILS. Not saying it had anything to do with it now but the pilot stating “we are still left” is giving me a worrying feeling. Sorry to hear it ended like this. Flying cargo at night is also not the most relaxing experience either. Let’s see what comes next in the reports.

[@jochen_schueller]

please tell the authorities, maybe it can be helpful

[@wilkas222]

Definetly report it

[@nZym1]

Im not aviator myself, can you clarify what you mean by "flying cargo at night is not the most relaxing experience"? Does carrying cargo pose extra risks?

[@oliverlauhamo757]

@@nZym1 Their duty time usually starts very early

[@oliverlauhamo757]

localiser won't put you below the glide slope but even having to deal with being in a sidelobe at the most crucial and demanding part of the flight can degrade your performance. Not saying that this was a human error but these things have a tendency to pile up.

[@Guevara1015]

Rest in peace, I hope for a speedy recovery for all those injured

[@flo4401]

Working at Brussels Airport , I saw this plane coming in and out multiple times. It's really heartbreaking. I hope the survivors get well soon and all my sincere condolences to the family.

[@CarlitoBre]

That's a really fast upload. Thanks for all your effort!

[@grahammonk8013]

@CarlitoBre Very quick, this is the first I heard of the crash.

[@TheEDFLegacy]

​​@@grahammonk8013 Same!

[@jimmygadd]

Yeah very good to, hats of to uploader, more info here then from all the papers around the glode

[@gee3883]

I was checking in at Vilnius airport when this crashed and didn't hear anything, I was very surprised to only hear about it once I'd landed in Luton. Our flight was delayed but the pilot just said due to an incident with the fire brigade.😳 crazy times. R.I.P to the pilot.

[@Ig86]

Why should he put into unnecessary stress all the passengers in his airplane? You never know how people can react including unmanaged panic attacks.

[@gee3883]

@@Ig86 I'm not suggesting he told us🙄doh ., I'm just surprised that at the airport it was all very quiet and business as normal.

[@thomasdalton1508]

I guess with the crash happening outside the airport boundary, the only direct impact on the airport is that they don't have their fire engines because they have left the airport to respond to the crash. They can't operate without fire engines. So technically your pilot was accurate - it was the absence of the fire brigade rather than the crash itself that delayed you.

[@NicolaW72]

@@thomasdalton1508 Indeed.

[@viliukas15]

@@thomasdalton1508 that is exactly what happened. Spot on. ICAO requirements

[@captainsalty9579]

Should be noted that approach gave the wrong ATC frequency (Vilnius tower is 118.205, the given frequency was 118.5 and the read back was 118.05). That's possibly a distraction factor and that's most likely why after the transfer we didn't hear from postman again. That's also why both frequencies gave a landing clearance, in hopes that postman was on one of them

[@VASAviation]

Nice point. After watching again I realize that Approach indeed says ONE ONE EIGHT TWO ZERO FIVE. Quite fast, difficult to hear. Then for Postman I clearly hear ONE ONE EIGHT ZERO FIVE. Definitely read back the wrong frequency. Shouldn't be much of a factor since frequencies are listed in charts. You call a couple times without reply, either you come back to previous frequency for confirmation or you switch to the correct frequency yourself.

[@samiraperi467]

Should also be noted that at 1:31 18D doesn't read back the correct altitude.

[@captainsalty9579]

@@VASAviation the issue with that is it might not be a factor at 10 miles or more, but you don't have much time at 4 miles, could be quite a distracting factor taking into account they were overspeeding (judging by the localiser overshoot which only happens when people don't follow speed restrictions) and also considering they were in full IFR weather up until 800-900 FT. You won't be looking at charts for the frequencies at this stage of flight

[@VASAviation]

@@samiraperi467 he, he did read it back correctly.

[@tadass.2675]

​@@VASAviationour lithuanian atc rules demand that you say "decimal" when mentioning comma. She didnt and that added to the mistake list.

[@mezlay2]

Sheeshhh how anyone inside that plane survived is beyond crazy

[@LuKas_146]

the cockpit was separated from the burning part of the aircraft

[@aor3200]

@@LuKas_146 another 2 crew members were behind pilots ? Front part of the plane.. ?

[@OOpSjm]

@@aor3200 Where else would they be? Strapped to the cargo pallets?

[@aor3200]

@@OOpSjm 🙄

[@LTULithuania]

1 pilot die

[@piparalegal2019]

Wow. This was a quick grab and upload. Thanks for this information, Victor. My sincerest condolences to the family of the deceased, and well wishes for swift recovery to those injured in this incident.

[@surimi7283]

I'm sorry to hear that, and thanksfor the quick upload. My condolences to the victim's family. I hope the others make a full recovery, and the cause of the accident is found quickly.

[@paulpaulsen7777]

3:05 You can see the angle of landing lights suddenly changes and go down about 4 seconds later, like the descending flightpath changed abruptly to steeper. Many possibilities: sudden loss of elevator control, unintended deactivation of ILS approach on autopilot, intended deactivation for manual final and trim settings wrong, sudden stalling due to deactivated speed/ thrust control, flaps not extended enough...

[@hannobaali_makendali]

PILOT ERROR

[@paulpaulsen7777]

@@hannobaali_makendaliWe cannot tell yet anything. If elevator control is lost due to fire in aft section, this also could happen.

[@hannobaali_makendali]

@@paulpaulsen7777 ii call PILOT ERROR. They simply fcuked up. (ii’m a retired Aviation Engineer)

[@over9000andback]

Armchair pilot reporting for duty! I know with 100% certainty what happened, trust me.

[@Megaddd07]

forward cargo shift would explain it (they were slowing down in a slight nose down attitude)

[@Noledad77]

Wow, RIP to the member who perished, and well-wishes for a full and speedy recovery to the ones who survived.

[@TheShowblox]

Prayers for the two pilots who are in critical condition🕊️

[@6etallr]

Flown into Vilnius countless times. The approach is a straightforward one. The behavior of the plane looks like it dropped suddenly the last few hundred feet- be that wind sheer, control input error or mechanical, its a sad day for those involed.

[@g1344304]

Pure speculation but more likely autopilot/autothrottle related failure or misuse/misunderstanding by the pilots, could be similar to the AMS crash - ILS capture without autothrottle (for various reasons), attempting to capture the glide from above with incorrect modes etc. Source - pilot with over 10,000hrs on Boeings

[@tomit-nl]

@@g1344304 something like that seems plausible yes, it looks like the plane goes in a lineair way all the way down to the crash site.

[@LionBlu2000]

Seems like sudden loss of power maybe?

[@thegoalie5233]

@@g1344304 Like you said pure speculation but from the CCTV footage the aircraft appears to be on a fairly stable glide, looks right for a 3 degrees glide and the V/S increases rapidly a few feet from the ground. Could be something with the A/T like you said with the AMS crash but I don't think it was related to capturing the glide from above as it looks stable for a few seconds there.

[@gruselhaus]

looks like a CG shift to me. Maybe a sudden cargo move

[@chrisbysize]

Looks like an unstable approach compared to 18.11.2024 data. At 840m 263 km/h on 18.11.2024 vs. 391 km/h on 25.11.2024 At 450m 252 km/h on 18.11.2024 vs. 322 km/h on 25.11.2024 The question for authorization of ILS marker is also a bit odd.

[@rudySTi]

The lower speed is consistent with what looks like a stall from the video. Can any pilots in the comments confirm whether you can stall at that speed, the angle of attack didn't look that steep

[@kefirtruskawkowy]

@@rudySTi what lower speed, today had higher speed.

[@rudySTi]

@@kefirtruskawkowyyou are correct. My bad

[@jemand8462]

@@rudySTi you can stall at any speed. you can even stall while flight straight downwards. It's all about the angle of attack. If you pull too hard, you're gonna stall and as the flight controls react much more sensitive in higher speeds, an overreaction can lead to a stall easily. Looking at the video though, the reason wasn't a stall, the aircraft was very fast and had a normal angle of attack. The stall only seemed to happen right before the impact.

[@xiami8693]

agree on unstable approach. Noticed high vertical speed Something strange before crash, increased the angle down as if plane stalled the last second and then hard pull up and after that wing dropped and crashed

[@ericwiklund4168]

How did 3 out of 4 people on that plane survive that?!

[@tadass.2675]

Airplane was very slow, very low, quite safe and airport and emergency services were nearby. And probably everybody was sitting at the front so didnt get into the "mincer".

[@DanielsPolitics1]

@@tadass.2675Do we know if the three evacuated, or did they have to be extracted?

[@Magyar9Andras]

@@tadass.2675 Well 150kts is not slow :D

[@Kislo7nik]

@@DanielsPolitics1 At least some of them had to be extracted according to local news.

[@DanielsPolitics1]

@ Oh, that’s not good. Do we know how quickly the airport fire service got to the scene?

[@legit.peasant]

It's a horrible day for aviation... my condolences to everyone's families affected by this. R.I.P

[@tombley5760]

What else happened?

[@ChasingMyTravelDreams]

@@tombley5760Russian Sukhoi superjet 100 had a bad landing and caught fire in Antalya, Turkey.

[@ChasingMyTravelDreams]

@VASAaviation would you be able to look into that one? A45051 Sochi to Antalya. Thank you!!!

[@bond_andrew]

Based on the given data, pilots were flying IRKAL 2B arrival with ILS Z RWY 19 approach. MIZOP point minimums are 5000 feet and max 230 kt. After that, take the right turn heading 104 to VI412 (to intercept the ILS beacon), which you need to intercept at 3000 feet (max 210 kt). Next, fly the runway heading at 194 to D6.2 at 2700 feet, which is 6.2 miles from the runway threshold. This is the point where G/S must be alive, and the 3-degree descent must be maintained. It must have a stabilized approach (the aeroplane must be fully prepared for landing). From 3:04 to 3:07, you can observe a good 3-degree descent. However, at 3:08, you might notice the "dive" manoeuvre. I'm not sure about the pilot flying, but at least the pilot monitoring felt distracted. Several mode videos are available from the Lithuanian mass media. One shows an airplane pitching its nose up just moments before the crash. This could have been an instinctive attempt to recover from the rapid altitude loss. For me, it seems like the crew made some fatal mistakes during the arrival/approach phases. The wrong altimeter setting can be a potential reason for that. The airplane was missing some 200 feet of altitude. When pilots noticed that, they pitched nose up, but it was too late. However, that won't explain the dive moment. Lithuanian authorities have little to no experience in air crash investigations. As it was a US plane, NTSB will provide all the help needed. I would bet on a pilot error or technical failure as two major factors, with minor mistakes from ATC.

[@roxair1]

First it is always a bad habit and disrespectful to the victims to speculate on reasons without the data. Second it is kinda arrogant to dis on the Lithuanian authorities, who will first and foremost be supported by European investigators. US is only in because it is a Boeing. Again.

[@christopherrobinson7541]

The limited communication with the aircraft did not confirm that they were established on the glideslope.

[@bond_andrew]

@@roxair1@roxair1 I do not act disrespectfully to the victims. Or would you say NTSB or EASA are acting disrespectfully? I'm a forensic investigator myself. You must draw assumptions from your initial data. My data came from VASAviation, ATC, and Flightradar24 data. I draw my initial assumptions based on that data. Investigation will reveal evidence and will either prove or deny assumptions made. I was born in Lithuania and lived there until 2010. Today, Lithuanian authorities officially state that they have almost zero experience in such accidents. And finally, I said, "As it was a US plane, NTSB will provide all the help needed". Did I say something wrong? Of course, the EASA (European Union Aviation Safety Agency) will play an equally crucial part in this investigation. I'm sorry, but I would very much disagree with you blaming me for being disrespectful.

[@chrisbradley1192]

I noticed the nose-down attitude change at 3:08 also.

[@pjhaebe]

​@@bond_andrewSome people don't appreciate facts, not your fault. They revel in creating drama where there is none.

[@commonsense31]

RIP. And that’s insane how 3 of the crew survived with minor injuries!

[@Domas666]

1 with minor injuries and 2 in critical condition, unfortunately

[@stscc01]

As always, you're the best source of information on an incident or accident. Thanks for your invaluable work!

[@andregentil6602]

1:29 did the pilot reply “2300” feet and not 2700 ?

[@slyfoxyandalifesaver]

It was so lucky that there wasn't more deaths from people inside their homes, my thoughts are with the family of the deceased. Lets hope this isn't anything narfarious.

[@DanielsPolitics1]

I think anything nefarious is very unlikely. We will all be aware of the DHL fire, but there is nothing here to suggest an explosion or fire.

[@donmoore7785]

Something "nefarious"? Like a member of the crew intentionally crashed it? What evidence is there to suggest that???

[@MJ-uk6lu]

@@donmoore7785 People suspect Putin, but there's no evidence for that

[@redmanish]

@@donmoore7785 People are understandably somewhat jumpy because there had been concerns over the last few weeks regarding Russians seeding planes with explosive cargo (this actually happened on DHL flights in Germany and the UK) but this certainly doesn’t seem to case here. At first glance it seems to be either a configuration issue or getting behind the plane to close to the ground to recover, but it’ll be interesting to see what the report says and find out the true cause.

[@aldra744]

this is insane as it is in a city with high populated multistory buildings and other houses I live near by, sometimes it looks like pilot in last seconds did everything to avoid houses and more deaths, you can not find better place to crash on approach to Vilnius airport then that one how macabre it could sound... god bless pilot

[@consortiumxf]

While the incorrect altitude read-back may not be a factor as far as terrain obstacles, it does potentially point to an overall problem of fatigue, task saturation, other factors, etc. Also approach giving the incorrect ATC frequency just adds to the swiss cheese model. RIP to the pilot and healing energy to the survivors, friends, and families affected by this horrible event.

[@VASAviation]

I hear the pilot reading back the correct altitude. However he got wrong the QNH first, then his own callsign, then the frequency (although bad spoken by ATC)... Cargo pilots are more prone to fatigue. That's a fact.

[@consortiumxf]

@@VASAviation Indeed. The video of the plane appearing to be stable on final, then suddenly *not* stable is interesting. Not familiar with whatever Lithuanian investigative branch that handles plane crashes but hope to see a thorough report in the future.

They selected 2700 ft on their MCP (autopilot), as evident by the Mode S data received by adsb fi.

[@timschmitt7550]

It reminds me of the Turkish Airlines Flight 1951 crash (was also a Boing 737), which was due to an incorrect altimeter reading impacting the thrust autocontrol, in combination with ILS landing and at night. Pretty much the same situation.

[@zeynepaydin9856]

​@@timschmitt7550hey tim it was a different situation it was at daylight plus many years later it got confirmed the radioaltimeter was not funcioning correctly after everything that happened with boeing im not suprised

[@QuaplesYT]

I literally almost burst into tears reading the title… so sad. I hope they’re ok and recover from something like this. My prayers go out to them.

[@Armuotas]

At 2:16 She said "...contact Tower 118.205." Readback was "118.05, Postman 18Delta" No comms after that. It's at least second incorrect readback. At 1:38 He said "Postman 18Zero, eh, 18Delta". Could this somehow contribute to the accident? Was the pilot too tired?

[@JJM2222]

Just ESL

[@MyGreeed]

1. 00:24, the pilot read QNH back 1019 instead of 1020, controller does not correct back! 2. 01:05, Descending 2700fr instructed, the pilot clearly read back something else (seems to me 2300 or 2500) 3. 01:23, the pic read back wrong frequency for tower. Maybe the reason why we have 0 communication on last seconds. He was on the wrong freq perhaps? Why does the approach control leave it without correcting? It's a shared responsibility. They had wrong QNH, wrong altitude, wrong freq ...

[@NicolaW72]

@@MyGreeed This repeating mistakes on readbacks are indeed irritating. We don´t know it at the moment but it reads as if the Pilot Monitoring was distracted by something.

[@Flightbudy2channel]

Even if he was a frequency, the result probably would’ve been the same. Being on a different frequency doesn’t cause like this. It just means we don’t have audio.

[@andij605]

yeah, sounds tired

[@jontom-o1r]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/g4nciZqJqpp2eKc kzbin.info/www/bejne/a36rl5inq8Z1hpI apparently few cctv footage from nearby

[@monikamackonyte]

Am I seeing it wrong in the first video, or one of the planes' wings (right) goes down and touches the ground? So the plane flipped on the side?

[@cola98765]

first clip looks like bank angle and wingstrike, while second looks like massive pitch up. Stall as they tried to recover too late?

[@dvim]

Better quality of the first clip: kzbin.info/www/bejne/g4nciZqJqpp2eKc

[@dvim]

Some scenes after the first responders have secured the site: kzbin.info/www/bejne/hJK4gol8Z7KLZ6c

[@janinsweden8559]

@@cola98765 speed too low

[@unbekannt4637]

Got goosebumps hearing the twr controller after the crash :(

[@NicolaW72]

Yes - his shaken voice and obvious attempt to stay calm.

[@marcfair3d]

Did they really read back 2700 feat? It's not clearly understandable. I hear twothousandtwelvehundred what makes no sense. Perhaps they understood 2200 and were way below the glidepath while flying manually.

[@VASAviation]

two thousand svn hundred feet. Too fast. But definitely 2700'.

[@petereef4001]

1.31, he readback 2500 feet.

[@VASAviation]

@@petereef4001 I hear 2700' pretty clear.

[@PaulKGriffin]

He's flying an ILS so doesn't really matter if he got the altitude wrong by a couple hundred feet. He can see the Glideslope/altitude he should be at.

[@jflo4073]

They are below the cloud cover. PAPI should be plainly in sight. Also, they 100% have a radioaltimeter.

[@carolinelvsewe]

Condolences to the family of deceased and 🙏 for those injured. Amazing quick footage, Victor.

[@-Tango_Actual-]

Judging by the flight data just before the crash, they appear to have been on a wildly unstabilized approach, likely coming in both too fast and too high. Descent rates of over 2,000 fpm at 3,700 ft, and over 1,100 fpm at 1,000 ft. At one point they began to climb before rapidly sinking again. Very unfortunate event, I'm curious to see what the cause turns out to be.

[@asandras6769]

it culd be a cargo not fixed coretly

[@hannobaali_makendali]

PILOT ERROR

[@-Tango_Actual-]

@@hannobaali_makendali Maybe, maybe not. It is a Boeing after all.

[@hannobaali_makendali]

@ It’s an old Boeing, a well built one.

[@ptsteinbach]

The big question is whether or not it had an incendiary device on it. According to the Wall Street Journal, Russia was in the planning stages of an attack on US-bound DHL planes using incendiary devices. This plane was a contractor for DHL. If there was a dress rehearsal for such an event, it would look a lot like this. Based on the approach, it doesn’t look like it to me.

[@jonahfinademz8646]

Victor, my condolences to the crew and their families. The Boeing 737 has to capture the localizer before the glideslope will capture on an ILS approach. It appeared they went through the localizer initially and turned back to recapture it. At that point they were above the glideslope and I believe they must have dialed the altitude selector to field elevation and continued to descend in Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC) and eventually into VMC. They were descending at a higher rate and for some reason and they flew below minimums which is 200 feet above ground level (AGL). This accident will be investigated but I would guess that pilot error is the cause. They seemed surprised when checking in with approach that the ILS Z was in use due the cloud ceiling. The landing checklist on the Boeing 737 confirms gear down, speed-brakes armed, flaps set. The pilots have to fly the approach glideslope guidance on the ILS approach in order to stay above terrain when in IMC. The many surveillance footage appears they were lower in visual conditions which makes this controlled flight into terrain. Easily mitigated by going around and doing another approach. Getting behind on landing while distracted inside the cockpit with checklist and guidance mismanagement can result in CFIT which may be what happened here.

[@griffin5184]

I’d leave the technical information and investigation to the experts.

[@jonahfinademz8646]

@@griffin5184 I agree

[@braveworld2707]

@jonahfinademz8646 You have just agreed with @griffin5184 about leaving the tech info and investigation to the experts but then you post the below crap. I sincerely hope they are extremely acute angled pickets that make up the fence you are sitting on. 🙄 _This accident will be investigated but _*_I would guess that pilot error is the cause._* 🤡

[@seosahm]

Anyone else getting stall vibes from that rate of descent? I'm seeing the comments about missing the glideslope, but surely they would realise that degree of drop.

[@foobarf8766]

ADS-B suggests 149 knots so not getting stall vibes here, but if the glide slope antenna was bent maybe (i think there was a storm?)

[@IslandSimPilot]

Icing.

[@rehepeks]

@@IslandSimPilot Nope.

[@corywoodrow3802]

@@foobarf8766😂

[@Megaddd07]

Instant pitch down looks like foward cargo shift, given they were slightly nose down and slowing down.

[@igclapp]

Apparently there was a 30 knot loss of headwind between 1,600 feet and the ground. So wind shear may have been a factor here.

[@gogovideo10]

When they said there was survivors, I thought they meant on the ground. It's an absolute miracle anyone made it out of that alive.

[@Shit_I_Missed.]

People survive final approach crashes all the time. It's not the work of a divine agent, it's literally physics of not so speedy thing doing what its supposed to be doing. Asiana Airlines Flight 214 struck the seawall at SFO, broke apart, flung passengers and crew onto the runway, caught fire and burned to the shell, and out of 300+ people only 3 died.

[@timis200]

There were 2 pilots and 2 crew members. 1 pilot dead, 1 in critical condition. 2 with non critical injuries.

[@SuperMarkizas]

100% pilot said 2300, on 0.25 playback clear as day it's not 2700

[@firstielasty1162]

I heard that also, 2300, but the terrain looks pretty flat around EYVI, field elevation is just under 650". Minimum sector altitudes around there are 2000 or less, so that mistake probably not a factor.

[@bigheadbig5910]

@@firstielasty1162 No. Airport is on the hill.

[@Caperhere]

Try using close captions.

[@Flinno-k8w]

Heard that too. 1:28 2300. at 0,5x speed it's very obvious.

[@infatum9]

Captions state 2700. Also, listening up close to a speaker multiple times or in headphones would still make it 2700. English teacher here. I believe the pilots need to work on their clear-cut distinct pronunciation. Not only the mic and radio transfer worsen the audio quality per se as it gets transferred, their English needs improvement too. This is why they use these "Foxtrot, Alfa" abbreviations so there is no ambiguity. Still other minor pronunciation things count. As mentioned by others, observing all these cockpit dials, checking the visual field through the windshield while communicating at the same time all add up to task saturation... God forbid if there were any distractions present at that moment, like checking something on the phone or talking off topic to crew members. Pardon my critique and condolescences to deceased. Hope the others make a recovery and we get to hear their testimony.

[@limitbreaker_2132]

Approach controller didn't correct the tower frequency when the pilot read back as 118.05 instead of 118.5... That's why the pilot was not able to communicate with tower.

[@AmbiguousOne-l6g]

She said „118 205“, as that is the tower frequency. But you‘re right, the wrong read back was was not corrected.

[@davidlawrence3230]

Look at that established approach and then sudden change right before terrain.. man, RIP.

[@davidblurton7158]

looked ok then seemed to nose in,, weather looked ok,,, its a strange one

[@Vpmatt]

@@davidblurton7158 They pulled up sharply right before impact.

[@davidblurton7158]

@@Vpmatt yeah the other vid shows it better,, too low maby and stalled it,,, guess we will find out soon enough very sad

[@edanalytics9336]

Anyone else notice controller gave QNH 1020 and Swiftair 5960 read back incorrectly QNH 1019?

[@VASAviation]

Correct readback later

[@johnhopkins4920]

Thank you Victor, for the speedy upload. Much appreciated.

[@YesYes81812]

My good friend works for swiftair and has even worked on this exact plane. She is deciding wether to quit her job or not, as she is really shaken up by this. She knew the crew and everything. Condolences to everyone affected.

[@tubemember21]

I heard of this crash jusd 5 minutes ago, yet Victor's upload is 2 hours old. Nice work. RIP to rhe FO.

[@Noledad77]

I listened back twice and clearly heard "two thousand, three hundred feet". I also see a few comments where the CG may have shifted, but I think that the pilot may have realized they were going down and tried to avoid some houses or larger buildings perhaps? CG is definitely a real possibility, but he could have also been trying to mitigate ground casualties.

[@pkteamfilms8262]

Perhaps pilot fatigue? It has caused accidents before like UPS 1354. + I heard just right now that vilnius tower is supposed to be 118.2, not 118.05 if im correct here

[@joboatthecrossroads]

Three people survived the disaster, let's hope they will still be alive. Condolences to the victim’s family. 💜💜💜

[@UhOhUmm]

The Lithuanian that was not in front of the plane apparently was conscious and just a little banged up, first responders already said he was able to explain the situation on the scene.

[@FlightLevel380]

In the video you can see they were mostly stable coming in and then suddenly the descent rate increased rapidly.

[@PapaG603]

May their memories be eternal 🙏🏼✝️. Thank you Victor for having this up so fast. Im reading that people may have survived this tragedy. That would be a true miracle.

[@FreshTillDeath56]

Thanks, Vic. Your updates are the best. We need to hear Juan Browne's thoughts on it next.

[@NicolaW72]

Indeed.

[@THISISBEAR]

My sincere condolences go out to the family and friends of the deceased at this tragic time. May their memory be a Blessing to you all. I am so very sorry for your loss. For the survivors, wishing each of you a speedy and complete recovery. 🇨🇦

[@JohnSeifert-if8pl]

The aircraft seems stable in the video up until it suddenly plummets from the sky. Based on the lights remaining pretty much in the same position the whole time this looks like a loss of airspeed close to the ground and likely not caused by weather or anything like that. Very sad for all involved.

[@vw72713]

Same thoughts... At 3:07 the angle of the landing lights suddenly tilt down. With this the sinkrate increased as well as well.

[@EstorilEm]

The landing lights seem too high in my opinion, like they either didn’t have flaps out and were too slow, or did have flaps out - but were also too slow. Sounds like an unstable approach and they were behind the plane (asking for ILS clearance repeatedly so close to the ground.)

[@xeels2708]

Yeah, angle of the landing lights seem to indicate a big nose-up attitude until stall and then the nose was dropped to recover from the stall, I don't remember if there is a stick pusher in the 737

[@rehepeks]

@@EstorilEm So close to the ground? They were asking for approach clearance confirmation well before mizop which is ~16NM before runway and minimum 5000ft .

[@vw72713]

A lot of speculation going on here… 737 only has a stick shaker. Stall recovery is like in every other conventional plane: nose down, wings level, thrust increase smoothly, flight path recover smoothly

[@NicolaW72]

That´s a disturbing start into the new week.😯 Thank you very much for publishing the relevant radio communication so quickly. My condolences to the family and friends of the deceased pilot.

[@hygri]

Condolences to the crewmember's family and all on the ground who lost their homes. Awful. I wonder if the incorrect QNH readback is the root cause... Damn. Not a good start to the week. Thanks for all your hard work Vas.

[@IslandSimPilot]

Only 0.01 off on the QNH. From the video I would guess icing is a factor.

[@rehepeks]

No it isnt. They were flying an ILS which means the glidepath is independent of altimiter setting. And even if it would have been an approach without vertical guidance then 1hpa difference is 27ft. At 1 mile from rwy they should have been at aroud 300ft.

[@jake_]

I am very curious to see the preliminary report on this. Reaching a conclusion a few a hours after an accident like this based only on a video and the final radio transmissions, is far fetched. Thank you very much for the upload and your hard work.

[@pfsantos007]

Pilot read back 2500' instead of controller's 2700'. Not sure if factor.

[@danbarnard9785]

I'm looking at the METAR data provided and am wondering if icing may be at play. Not necessarily airframe/engine icing, but windshield icing causing PIC to misidentify the runway. 01/M01 is pretty saturated along with a low ceiling at night.

[@D.Argentarius]

They performed a very steep descent and the speed seems to be higher as usual. Is there a 2 degrees slope? And no answer to ATC and TWR radio calls before crash.....

[@tuuchen2990]

Yes, too fast and falling under glide slope, forgot engines on idle and stalling when pulling nose up

[@vlatkomafija]

@@tuuchen2990 but won't they notice on the instrument that they are under the glide slope? because they had time to react I think

[@tuuchen2990]

​@@vlatkomafija Something went wrong in the crucial moment, leaving no room for recovery. The radio silence suggests they knew something with the approach was not correct, but couldn't figure out what was wrong before it was too late to pull up. Maybe it was a bit of slam dunk so they were a bit too high and then went too low

[@NicolaW72]

@@tuuchen2990 Indeed. And the investigation will probably have to look into the CVR recording to figure out what exactly went wrong.

[@boggy8557]

Mr VasAviation, can you tell me what the scale is of the tick marks on the final approach track? Is each tick 1 nm? If the audio and video is correct she says he is at 4 nm and an altitude of 2800 ft or so but in the overlay/graphics he seems to be around 6 nm.

[@chamekas123]

2:17 approach gave 118.205 frequency, pilot read back was 118.05. That's why last transmissions are one sided only, and clearance was given blindly by both, approach and tower.

[@PercyPruneMHDOIFandBars]

My condolences to the family of the victim and I hope the survivors heal well. This is a real puzzle. Thank goodness for those black boxes! Them and the testimony of the (thank heavens) survivors are going to make for a VERY interesting investigation! Thanks for sharing this so quickly!

[@gemberkoekje]

It reminds me of the Turkish Airlines crash near Amsterdam, my first question would be whether they monitored their airspeed close enough. My condoleances to the family, and hoping for recovery for the survivors.

[@vlatkomafija]

they crashed with speed or around 140kt while turkish below 100. speed was not an issue here

[@annaroux6167]

@@vlatkomafija Source of speed 140kts ? With nose down, and uncontroled aircraft, it's look like a stall on short final.

[@vlatkomafija]

@ compare all previous dhl flights on flight radar. He came in extremely fast and low only on the day of the accident.

[@Jadoo800]

What was the temperature, seemed like it was snowing. The more below zero the lower the altimeter thinks you are, so you need to add on cold weather altitude corrections

[@anonanon9591]

They also seemed to have flown through the ILS localizer and had to turn back to capture it from the other side.

[@julianstafford7071]

Looks like they made a large heading change, of course this would be inevitable for an intercept of much more than 30 degrees or so.

[@johnwkindig1613]

This happens a lot honestly, especially if ATC is a little late in giving you a turn. If established on the course before the Final Approach Fix, its usually no big deal.

[@andrejnekliudov750]

Who have premium FR24 - you can check this plane by name EC-MFE.This plane also landend in Vilnius 2024.09.09.I noticed similar situation - they dropped ALT and SPEED from 2550 ft and 181 knots to 1300 ft 126 knots for +-75 sec, before touchdown.What is it?Pilot feature?

[@_dIIJAY]

2:20 last contact to airplane - a readback to 4 mile final announcement from ATC and tower frequency to contact. 2:47 approach calls - no response 2:53-2:54 the aircraft moves slighlty off centerline 2:55 Tower calls the clearance - no response 3:04-3:07 you can see the nose getting pulled up 3:08 the nose goes heavily downside (also a landing cleareace from APP) 3:18 crash

[@NicolaW72]

Thank you, good summary of what can be seen and heard in the video!👍

[@chichomancho1791]

vertical speed was too hi, it seems blackicing , the weather seems foggy and if temperature was less then +4C , conditions are ideal for blackicing.

[@TheRealRoch108]

Read back sounds incorrect...2700 not 2500 feet...

[@VASAviation]

2700

[@cazrl6023]

Tower Freq is 118.205, and was read back as 118.05 and not corrected by app. That would be the reason for not contacting tower.

[@g1344304]

Pure speculation but most likely autopilot/autothrottle related failure or misuse/misunderstanding by the pilots, could be similar to the AMS crash - ILS capture without proper autothrottle (for various reasons), attempting to capture the glide from above with incorrect modes etc. My personal opinion with over 10,000hrs on Boeings

[@joshs5772]

I agree with you here. this was my thought.

[@dronemonkey2038]

Seems to roll left and pitch nose down….stall on Approach?

[@g1344304]

@ when an aircraft stalls (such as trying to maintain a glide slope without thrust) one wing typically stalls and drops first

[@dronemonkey2038]

@@g1344304 not without sideslip β

[@Megaddd07]

it could be forward cargo shift load security failure, given they were slightly pitch down and slowing down. They happen very fast and not recoverable

[@hiscifi2986]

Not too sure, but it sounded like atc said contact Tower 1182 05, with the eight slurred into the two. The airplane then read back 118 05.

[@most-average-athelete]

Holy.. I don't know if it caused the accident or not but.. - wrong QNH readback - wrong ILS altitude readback - wrong tower frequency readback none of them were corrected by the controller?..

[@VASAviation]

He read back the CORRECT QNH, he read back the CORRECT altitude.

[@jm-holm]

@@VASAviation I'd bet my right foot that he's reading back 2500 feet, no doubt whatsoever. He does not say 2700.

[@RicnTay224]

​@@VASAviationMaybe it's the language barrier, but I hear a read back of 2,300 ft. Regardless, a 500ft below intercept alone wouldn't have been a causal factor.

[@most-average-athelete]

@@VASAviation 0:39 0:40 QNH 1020 and readback was 1019 I am aware, 1 hP of difference does not make a huge change, and I am also aware that it can change by air conditions, still unless there is part cut at 0:39 the readback was not correct.

[@VASAviation]

@@jm-holm I hear him say 2700'.

[@Grodstark]

How did it crash though? Did everyone just pass out? No comms, no nothing?? Didnt they see the runway wasnt even there? I dont get it.

[@MagoLP]

They read back the wrong QNH value (1019 instead of 1020). That's not good. Well, I guess they would be too high, but still not good.

[@VASAviation]

That's no factor. They read it back correctly just before the approach when Approach repeats the QNH 1020.

[@spacejaga]

You know QNH changes due to weather conditions.... So early QNH was 1019 and later was updated...

[@Eyesandears04]

1 millibar error makes just 26 feet difference, not much

[@stefanocozzi8188]

They were on an ILS .. even if their QNH was wrong .. and ILS doesn’t suffer from “QNH blunder error “ so if followed correctly it would guide them all the way to the runway safely. Had they been on an Rnav ( non precision ) in that case yes .. QNH could have played a factor .. however .. it seems apparent they were visual With the runway .. so even if their QNH was incorrect .. they could have clearly corrected visually .. so overall I do t think QNH was a factor.

[@svsduke]

I don't understand, how pilots could not see that they were flying too low? I live nearly and all of the aircrafts at the spot they crashed are flying at least 150 meters above the earth , some even higher.

[@FlyingMaxFr]

Clearly something wrong happened with intercepting that localizer. V/S at -1200 ft when in the glide, no readback from the pilots, they should have done a missed approach if it was even possible

[@cola98765]

Tired cargo pilots trying to finish the night?

[@brylozketrzyn]

​@@cola98765unless we hear CVR the only thing I can think of is the window of circadian low. They could also have locked on false glideslope but that will be clear when investigation finds all conclusions. Rest in peace, FO

[@bigaldo246]

Landing lights appear to be at a higher up angle? Could nose up approach have caused a stall?

[@christopherrobinson7541]

That was only right at the end. The pilot was just reacting to seeing the ground coming up and he wanted to avoid hitting it.

[@talesfromunderthemoon]

atmintis amžina. May that poor pilot's soul rests in peace.

[@_OpdeeMist]

So sad to hear of this tragic event with the loss of life and I’m sure life changing injuries. Thoughts go out to all involved. Maybe I’m hearing things but I’m sure he read back 2500 ft. 1:30. Not knowing the area. Does anyone know if it’s a high wind shear area?

[@Xanthopteryx]

Could there perhaps have been icing as a contributing factor? We have one accident in Sweden (highly recommend reading about it) in "Kälvesta" 1977. They crashed on a parking lot on their way to land. Like a miracle - a parking lot, between residential buildings. No one(!) outside the airplane (Vickers 383 Viscount) was hurt!!!

[@JohanMsWorld]

Looks like he was aiming for the wrong aimpoint short of RWY. The descend rate looked nice or maybe a bit steep but not crazy from the video. Do we know if its any windsheer in the place?

[@MedicWarrior27]

All involved sound quite tired...fatigue???

[@cola98765]

Can already hear certain Swedish guy explain concept of Circadian Low once again.

[@dermann439]

Of course they're tired at 5:30am

[@sanantonio855]

5:30 am the controllers were probably at the end of their night shift and the pilots had to start flying in the middle of the night so everyone's tired

[@NicolaW72]

@@sanantonio855 Indeed - and it was Monday morning, too => the worst workday in the week.

[@unbekannt4637]

The acft was a bit high on the approach, what happened on short final, the rate of descent did not seem harsh (on the video) how they crashed in front the rwy. Interesting what happened in the cockpit on the last 2 miles before the crash

[@mandowarrior123]

Not to discourage speculation, as I do enjoy it but we don't have nearly enough information without the black box. Loose cargo, wind shear, mechanical fault, software fault, icing, radar fault, etc etc etc. First observation shows a large deviation followed by immediate attempted correction in the critical stage before landing. My speculation is we can't rule out most causes at this stage. Even the door falling off, it is a boeing. Even something like a bird strike through the cockpit could kill or incapacitate the cockpit crew, medical incident, and so much more. My point is, if you guys can rule out possible explanations or reason them less likely it'd be more impressive.

[@btudrus]

There were bombs detonating at DHL in Germany in the last time, this may have been a sabotage, given the proximity to the current war, it may have been an issue too. A German spokeperson for the secret services should give a press conference soon today...

[@rehepeks]

Not a birdstrike through a window for sure. Saw a post crash picture with intact cockpit windows.

[@NicolaW72]

Indeed. At the moment the reason for this crash can be everything. We simply don´t know it at the moment.

[@Samir-dy6le]

That's a Boeing 737-400 that has been going strong for decades. Pretty sure if it had a faulty door (btw the MAX9 blowout was a plug not a door), we would have heard of a crash about 40 years ago. As for the rest, the black boxes give clues and even with all the information they have cannot in many instances explain a crash. The point is, once all unfounded theories (like the door on a 737 Classic being blown out without any maintenance trace for it), the explanation would be staring at the investigators in the face.

[@Megaddd07]

With how instant that nosedive was, and immediate pitch up reaction, my best guess is forward cargo shift is most likely. Very deadly in the best of circumstances. Pitch down slowing down for approach are 'ideal' conditions for some load security to fail and domino.

[@aaprods]

Your transcript of the changeover to Tower is wrong. The controller said (mumbled) 118(2)05. Your text on this video says 118.5.

[@Altair150]

Cupple of things i noticed: They ask if they are cleared for the ILS after MIZOP -> tower does not answer to that; tower then cleares them for ILS, normally i would expect a „turn heading XXX cleared ILS 19“ but that did not occur. Then they overshot the centerline of ILS19 and had to come back (which should not be a big deal normally) and when tower cleares them for ILS 19 she says 2700 and the reply sounds to me like 2300 feet.

[@rehepeks]

Cleared via MIZOP. No vectoring required.

[@jbro0013]

Didn’t the DHL reply approach altitude 2500 instead of the directed 2700.

[@VASAviation]

I hear 2700

[@spearofneptune]

Did i mishear it or did the Pilot read back 2300ft? It sounds like it

[@VASAviation]

He said 2700'.

[@sert23769]

I heard the same 2300. They did not say 2700 vas.

[@jinitom]

I hear him say 'two thousand three hundred feet'. That startled me on the first listen, and that is all I hear when I repeat, with good headphones (and old ears!) 1:30 is the timestamp.

[@VASAviation]

@@jinitom I hear 2700'.

[@petereef4001]

Sorry, You are wrong. He said 2500 ft. If you reduce the speed to 0,5 times you can hear it loud and clear.

[@Thedutchcountryball]

What do you use to track the planes

[@doomhammer5517]

My condolences to the death and wishing a speedy recovery to the others. Does anyone else feel like at 3:10 the decent angle becomes much more steep? It's hard to tell because the camera isn't stable and zooms out and in, but it sure looks to me like the descent rate suddenly doubles. It certainly seems like fatigue might be a factor for both the PM and the controller and possibly a bit of GetThereItus. We're also dealing with non standard phraseology from both sides as well. 0:36 Controller tells them to expect ILS 19 in a very rushed manner which is likely why she forgot to include the specific approach being 19Z. It's either that or she is giving them the runway and the fact it'll be an ILS but for some reason is waiting to give them the precise approach at a later time (would be a bit unusual, but might potentially be supported by 2:04 where she does the same thing with UTN7022) 0:39 The PM reads back the 1020 QNH as 1019 and the controller doesn't catch the mistake 0:48 Controller confirms approach they're supposed to use is ILS 19Z. While helpful, she clearly did not understand the question the PM asked: "Are they only supposed to expect or are they already cleared for the ILS 19". (Admittedly it was a very badly phrased and unclear question) 1:19 Controller tells them to descend altitude "to" 2700 ft. (standard phraseology is to NEVER use the word "to" as it can be misunderstood as 2. In this case there was a 2 anyway and no one would misunderstand it as 22700 ft. ) 1:30 The PM might readback 2500 instead of 2700, although I can hear both depending on which one i listen for. 2:03 Postman 18D overshoots final, potentially indicating they are behind the aircraft and rushing things a bit. 2:17 The controller mumbles the frequency and doesn't use "decimal", then doesn't catch the readback being incorrect. (PM also does not use "decimal"). All of these are small mistakes that most of us have made before and none of them should cause a crash. They may be one small hole in the swiss cheese model though.

[@joshs5772]

At 03:11 you can see something from the tail of the plane - might be flames or smoke from explosion.?? Just after passing the trees

[@PeterCaptainObvious]

I got woken up by the emergency alert that went out because of that crash, my first thought was "what plane crash?!" not knowing that it has just happened

[@neillstephenson5482]

Read back first QNH wrong 1019 instead of 1020. Later he read back 1020, but had they set it wrong and in the communication missed the error?

[@sanantonio855]

it doesn't matter, they were guided on the glideslope

[@christopherrobinson7541]

@@sanantonio855 There was no communications that confirmed that they were on the glideslope.

[@davidabrahammaicolliersint8625]

At 1:32 the pilot was given 2700 but sounds like the read back was 2300 and the pilot asks tower to confirm. However, the tower’s reply was stepped on. Not sure if that 400 foot difference would cause a crash, but it seems there was definitely some confusion about the ILS.

[@VASAviation]

He said 2700'. Anyway that wouldn't cause a crash.

[@dan44244]

Flown in and out of Vilnius multiple times (not a pilot) but high rise buildings kinda seem to come out of nowhere - at least that’s how I always felt. Was never a gradual oh look at the buildings more a sudden „here we are“

[@PorcelainKilt]

The aircraft was below the bottom of the ceiling (reportedly at 500ft per the METAR) so they had visual with the ground. However, its worrisome that they were travelling at a GS of nearly 380kts passing below 12,700ft (0:51). Unless there were some colossal tailwinds, they were flying at over 300kts IAS (assuming wind components are negligible in the context of the speeds the aircraft was travelling at, and the weather data available in the METAR) when they really should be approaching 250kts IAS preparing to meet that speed restriction at 10,000ft. Nevertheless, per Chart 11-3 ILS Z Rwy 19 (May, 2024) for EYVI, MIZOP is the IAF for the approach with altitude restriction of 5,000ft and speed restriction of 230kts IAS. They crossed MIZOP at about 5,200ft and about 280kts IAS. It also appears they crossed VI412, the IF of the approach, at around 3,900ft and 254kts IAS, when VI412 has restrictions of 3000ft and 210kts IAS. (Data approximated from FR24 data) This approach should have been reported missed to ATC by the flight crew at MIZOP in my unprofessional opinion. My question is to those relevant aviation professionals reading this, why did ATC not command BCS18D to reduce speed when they were above 10,000ft and again how did they not do the same when they should have seen the aircraft was smashing through the speed limits at every point of the approach. Also, for those 737-400 pilots, isnt Flaps 1 max speed 250kts IAS, then suggesting they had no flaps extended passing the VI412 IF and only 10.7 miles to touchdown. RIP lost soul

[@saeldisd7167]

I can't tell you much about why ATC did or didn't do anything, but I can find wind data - my aviation knowledge is limited, but I do know meteorology (at least some days, anyway lol) With regards to the winds around 12-13k ft... the nearest sounding looks like it's Kaunas, about 60 miles WNW of the airport. The 0Z sounding would have been the most recent upper air balloon launch (probably launched around 1 am local time, with the winds that high probably coming in within about half an hour, so rough estimate of 4 hours prior to the crash - speculation based on how balloon launches work in the US). It looks like it was out of around WNW at 40 kts (29541KT at 3879 meters). And it would appear that they only do 0Z soundings (or at least that's all I see for this month), so the next one wasn't until 24 hours later - or about 6 hours ago as I write this, but a quick glance doesn't suggest to me that there would have been a huge shift in the winds (and that sounding from 00Z on the 26th has 21332kt at 4004 meters). A very, *very* rough estimate would be a tail wind of about 30 kts, and almost certainly no greater than around 40 to maybe 45 kts, on the basis of a 45 kt WNW barb on the skew-T at 650 hPa (the 3879 m was 630 hPa)

[@PorcelainKilt]

@@saeldisd7167that’s interesting. But that balloon is very far from the field. And if we were to assume those winds at those altitudes were experienced near the field then there would be a wind shear zone around the airport since the METAR at the field had winds 180/17kts. It would explain how their ground speed was so high if there were 40kt tail winds on the base leg of the ILS approach.

[@marksanders768]

At 3:08-3:09 in the inset video, it looks like the aircraft's attitude changes abruptly, with a distinct crook in its vertical motion, angling suddenly a degree or two more downward.

[@Toxedd]

3:08 instant direction change

[@rudySTi]

Lights pointed down. Did they stall?

[@alexmorris5028]

Was there a fuck up with the ILS system? Either onboard or on the ground?