Will your chances of getting tails on a coin toss (heads/tails) improve if you play more times?

Рет қаралды 8,399

Күн бұрын

A simple probability word problem and the law of large numbers.
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Пікірлер: 36

@MFisher7346 8 ай бұрын

It's true that for any single throw the chances of a Tail are strictly 50%. However, the cumulative chances of throwing at least one tail increase with each throw. For instance, with 2 throws there are 4 possible outcomes of which only one does not include a tail, so our chances have increased from 50% to 75%. 30 years ago, when I knew all about permutations and combinations I could have worked out a nice little formula for n throws, but I've forgotten all that stuff now.

@MathsMadeSimple101 8 ай бұрын

No. Chance of heads is 51% for a lot of coins due to the weighting of the inscriptions on there)

@user-os6fr2mo1l 8 ай бұрын

The Law of Independent Trials - Most games of chance reflect the mathematical concept known as “the law of independent trials.” This states that past events have no relevance on future events. With no bias, if the first 1,000 flips are Heads, the chances of the next flip being Tails is still 50%.

@roger7341 8 ай бұрын

The toss of a coin could be biased with practice and knowledge, and therefore it may be possible to get more tails than heads when a person plays more times. We need to know more details about how the coin is tossed. Is the coin flipped high in the air with many rotations and landed on a hard surface, or is it barely flipped at all to land on a soft and energy absorbing surface that minimizes the chances of flipping on landing? The bottom line is, one must not make oversimplified assumptions when coming to an answer. If there is absolutely no bias toward heads or tails on a series of coin tosses, the observed results should trend toward 50/50.

@bobcarn 8 ай бұрын

It's counter-intuitive in a way. If you got 20 heads in a row, you tend to think that the odds are good you're going to get a tails soon. Well, on the next toss the odds will still be 50/50. The odds may be against you for getting 20 heads in a row, but it still doesn't affect the next toss.

@rustyknott-W.D 8 ай бұрын

This is a constricted form of the theory of random numbers. You'd have the same odds of coming with 20 tails in the ensuing tosses. One toss outcome does not affect the outcome of any other toss. The only way your theory would be applicable is if the number of tosses were of a small finite number.

@geekyphoton5584 8 ай бұрын

Can you explain the binomial distribution and probability of getting a certain number of tails out of a certain number of trials?

@RickGoodner 8 ай бұрын

No, the chance is always 50/50 for H and T.

@Maccattack56 8 ай бұрын

The odds are always 50 / 50 but the probability changes.

@argentum530 8 ай бұрын

Depends if you flip it tails up or not. There is not a 50-50 chance...according to science and a study doing thousands of flips there is a slight advantage to the side that is up when flipped...

@laurendoe168 8 ай бұрын

That depends. It has recently been shown that a coin flip is not perfectly random. For whatever reason, a coin is SLIGHTLY more likely to come up the same side if it's "flipped." If it's currently heads, the odds are about 50.01% chance that it will come up heads again if flipped. Similarly, if it's tails, there's a 50.01% chance it'll come up tails again. Over the long haul, this discrepancy evens out; however, in the short term... if it's heads, the odds are very slightly in your favor that it'll come up heads next time.

@eileenhenryselby-smith9762 8 ай бұрын

Also it could land on the edge. Or get lost!

@laurendoe168 8 ай бұрын

@@eileenhenryselby-smith9762 As was discussed in another comment, the odds of landing on the edge are so remote that it's still extremely unlikely to happen once in 10,000 flips if it's a US penny or nickel. If it's a US dime or quarter, it's even less likely due to the ridges on the edge. If a coin is lost (which is possible), that toss is not recorded.

@CV-uy1jc 8 ай бұрын

No, I remember doing this back in college, in Quality Control class, and the answer then was no also. We had to perform all kinds of different probabilities.

@MrMousley 8 ай бұрын

No .. the odds are 50-50 (heads or tails) every time Even if you get heads 10 times in a row that doesn't make it 'more likely' that you'll get a tail next time .. BUT .. the more you toss the coin the more likely the outcome will be 50-50 overall.

@mrsteveinsandiego 8 ай бұрын

I agree with Rick.

@tomtke7351 8 ай бұрын

If the first tosses majorly were heads then yes, probability of getting tails improves. Obviously the opposite is true where if first tosses were majorly tails then next should be more heads.

@jessemallory741 8 ай бұрын

No--each time the coin is tossed, it's mutually exclusive from any of the other times the coin was tossed.

@alastairgreen2077 8 ай бұрын

No. It will always be 50/50 or thereabout.

@rustyknott-W.D 8 ай бұрын

The more times you play, the MORE the odds even out when there are only two outcomes available. No need for math.

@winnie2379 8 ай бұрын

Nope.

@russelllomando8460 8 ай бұрын

No. it's always 50%

@chetanjoshi2159 8 ай бұрын

50/ 50

@user-ri6rn7ti5h 8 ай бұрын

It will be even chance of getting heads and tails

@Mike-zy8in 8 ай бұрын

I don't disagree with the answer. Believe it or not I flipped a coin 4 or 5 times in a row and got tails each time. I guess my question is what is the odds of getting the same side 4 or 5 times in a row?

@laurendoe168 8 ай бұрын

If a coin flip was perfectly random, the chances of any given specific outcome is two to the power of however many tosses. For 5 tosses, it's two to the fifth power, aka 1 in 32. This is the same for heads, tails, heads, tails, heads.... or tails, heads, tails, heads, tails... or heads, heads, heads, heads, heads... or tails, tails, tails, tails, tails.... or any combination you wish to specify prior to the first flip.

@Vipre- 8 ай бұрын

No, the odds start at 50-50 or 1/2 and the longer you play the more that will bear out to truly 50-50 but the odds themselves never change. Strictly speaking the odds of tails is slightly less than 1/2 because a coin toss has three possible outcomes not two, two is just most likely.

@terry_willis 8 ай бұрын

What's the third possible outcome?

@Vipre- 8 ай бұрын

@@terry_willis The edge

@laurendoe168 8 ай бұрын

@@Vipre-Yeah... that's like one in a million. The surface it lands on has to be perfectly flat and level. Also, there cannot be any irregularities on the edge. If both conditions are not met, it won't land on the edge and stay there.

@Vipre- 8 ай бұрын

@@laurendoe168 Which is why I said "slightly less than 1/2" rather than 1/3.

@laurendoe168 8 ай бұрын

@@Vipre- And I did not disagree with you. I merely explained that the odds of it happening are so remote that when you say the odds are 50/50 heads or tails, you are accurate to at least 5 decimal places.