How civilization could destroy itself -- and 4 ways we could prevent it | Nick Bostrom

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Humanity is on its way to creating a "black ball": a technological breakthrough that could destroy us all, says philosopher Nick Bostrom. In this incisive, surprisingly light-hearted conversation with Head of TED Chris Anderson, Bostrom outlines the vulnerabilities we could face if (or when) our inventions spiral beyond our control -- and explores how we can prevent our future demise.
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[@raptorjesus6398]

Nick Bostrom is one of my favorite authors, good to see a talk by him

[@adrianaadnan7704]

Mine too.hes my friend but he just doesnt know it yet.🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@longranger5226]

Raptor Jesus He is truly intriguing. I haven’t read any of his work, but after viewing this, that will change. I like the way he articulates.

[@jayholland4095]

Not what I would expect from "Raptor Jesus" but I love it 😄😄

[@PowerfulU]

As depressing that it may be to hear this types of conversations, its important we take note about the state of humanity.

[@govindagovindaji4662]

I like Nick Bostrom so much ~ as a person ~ his mind ~ his character ~ his astuteness ~ his being. I hope to meet him one day.

[@bunstructors8591]

I would really love to see this guy giving a talk instead of being interviewed..

[@WestOfEarth]

I think he has given a TED talk...I'd have to search youtube to find it.

[@evad7933]

One of my thoughts, too. However, some of the push-back was useful.

[@adrianaadnan7704]

I always loved to listen to nick bostrom. All the questions i have in my brain he formed into words but hes very reserved in assigning probability. Hes less impulsive than i am.good on him.

[@firstal3799]

Do he is just a dull version if you?

[@selfelements8037]

9:19 "The future is not set. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves." This is why 'Terminator' the most relevant movie franchise. The metaphor is real, the battle is Man Vs. Machine, or in other words, man vs. his own creations, or himself. The logical part of his psyche that is augmented through technology.

[@dewildeworld6766]

YEP,and the power we consume will be our down fall,it will all come down to the harnessing of energy.

[@ozwhistles]

Please read the Greek legend of Prometheus? It is helpful.

[@aaditkamat4995]

I didn't see any comments about Chris Anderson. He's one of the best facilitators I have come across. He asked very pertinent questions and provided insights on top of the high octane stuff that Nick was sharing during the conversation. He comes across as an intellectual himself.

[@andrewdowdall2690]

So true! Chris is an amazing facilitator and has a brilliant mind. Maybe the reason he's not mentioned in the comments is because he's such a good interviewer and let's the focus be on the guest, as it should be.

[@neon32]

I'm glad this is being talked about.

[@cravidana1182]

Unfortunately, we never learn. That's something I learned about humanity. No matter how many times it happens, we never learn.

[@stephskipcain4599]

I am in public education and I am afraid for the future generations because so many of them are not learning anything about history and are dooming themselves to repeat the negative bits of history.

[@AzEagletarian]

Actually, we DO learn. Defining the problem is the first step in learning to head off calamity.

[@cravidana1182]

@@neb4587 actually, I heard something similar on FMAB. So, yes, maybe you are right. But I am not pretending anything. Never said I was smart. But carry on.

[@mattgreek1066]

Cravid Ana ignore him. Every interaction you, me and Ben have ever made is based on repetition and learned behaviour. He’s the one that looks idiotic in trying to belittle you.

[@cravidana1182]

@@neb4587 you are absolutely right. Carry on.

[@invox9490]

Now THIS is a Ted Talk! Keep them comming...

[@user-pu1wy1oo5i]

I have enjoy time that listen to the Ted conference.Nick Bostron's study is great. Especially, I could realize his hypothesis.But, after "We could prevent it " of his question. I have no idea. It is very difficult issue.

[@adrianaadnan7704]

Bostrom is amazing.i cannot not pay attn when he talks

[@ilejovcevski79]

Treaties can't stop or effectively limit technological progress like they did the arms race during the cold war, for one simple reason. The CW and the treaties were between the only two sides capable of fielding such destructive power on such a large scale. No other political entity could afford the resource base to match them. So of course the armament race could be controlled. Bio engineering and 3d printing aren't nearly as resource intensive. Some of those can be home grown by individuals. And even if 90% of the world would stop research and development, all that would achieve is that they will fall behind the other 10% that didn't.

[@user-ze6zg1zn9x]

نرجو أن تكون جميع الفيديوهات مصحوبة بترجمة للعربية حتى تعم الفائدة ولكم جزيل الشكر

[@evolvedcopper2205]

Me, before watching: *the greed of people with no scruples in companies with aggressive methods of chasing or holding monopoly status*

[@tcbevolver]

Bostrom effectively covers that under "Bad incentives for powerful persons or organizations".

[@dncbot]

You're not describing how that would be a threat to anything at all. Maybe it's the best way possible to turn people with no scruples into a positive force for society?

[@MrCmon113]

Ten year old after watching Steven Seagal movie.

[@adrianaadnan7704]

Prefrontal cortex is related to conciousness.. so it protects us . So it stops us from colossal unethical stuff. Unless we r overwhelmed by anger.

[@andreinowikow2525]

The moderator is appalingly inadequate for this topic.

[@evolvedcopper2205]

With all due respect to the moderator dude, this talk would have been so much better without him involved

[@globalmuffin2]

the moderator said the truth actually, while this guy just made an exercise of diplomacy, raving about how mass surveillance will save us from too much fo-sil fu-el consumption.

[@nagualdesign]

I don't think Chris even understood the concept of pulling out a black ball. He seemed totally ill-prepared.

[@firstal3799]

I think moderator asks some good questions and Nick's responses were actually weak. For example at 11:00

[@dibledable1431]

I agree. Interesting to find that he is the head of TED.

[@ingemar_von_zweigbergk]

13:06 it must have been some very effective negotiations that saved humans from nuclear war.

[@takekammuri]

This feels improperly thought through. The premise of the thought exercise is that from outside the urn your cannot see what's coming out next. So, how can one forbid research into things one doesn't know exist, and what could possibly be gained from surveying everyone when one doesn't know what one is looking for? The world is inherently uncertain. There is no way to get complete certainty and security. Even if you stopped educating the general population and eventually benighted ignorance reigned supreme and we'd all start seeing dying of the flu or abscesses or diarrhoea, who's to say that some bright young thing 5000 years down the line won't start the search for knowledge again and undo all this system of planned perfect misery that we have gone out of our way to create?! It won't work.

[@cyclonepr1me3]

Think about nukes if we continue to develop more and more powerful bombs eventually we will create a bomb that would wipe us all out and we wouldn’t be able to stop it. The goal of stopping the research in areas is to stop us from picking out the “black balls” that we know are there for certain and therefore reduce the chances of picking one out. What he means is to try and stop research in areas that we know would destroy us and instead pick out the other “balls” If we continue to research into everything then we can’t see what we will pick out but if we look at certain areas we know what we could pick out but not which ones we pick out. His theory is flawed but one that is also very real. In general we don’t create a perfect idea first and we work off of what we have until it no longer works and then we improve that idea as we can see with how we created the periodic table and how we represent atoms. His theory of not seeing into the urn is true as we don’t know what’s in there but what we can do is guess from what we already know. In conclusion if we continue the path we do we will wipe ourselves out and we need to stop research into the dangerous branches so as to stop ourselves from inventing our destruction, that is if we haven’t already and just can’t foresee it yet.

[@wertytrewqa]

since the very beginning of mankind, man has been predicting the end of times is near

[@user-Cata7sti7ma7]

2000 years ago people sayed the same think. We are still here...

[@mattgreek1066]

Unless you were there at the ‘very beginning of mankind’, there’s no way of demonstrating that theory to be true. Although I do agree with your sentiment.

[@jtheresepoat8680]

I think that the end of the world *as we know it* has possibly happened many times over already. Not in drastic sweeps, but in extinctions, global changes, etc

[@pace7746]

While true, current levels of technology make it such that the end of mankind comes from within, rather than from outside sources

[@ulrikfriberg8995]

Well, if there weren't any of these predictions since the beginning of mankind, that would be statistically extraordinary.

[@kght222]

1:39 we don't know if we have pulled out the black ball, and even if we HAVE pulled out the black ball, there is no certainty that we won't break it.

[@bnobriga2]

How does the mass surveillance not increase the risk of the other ends he fears.

[@mattgreek1066]

dakota Nobriga yeah, perplexing. Although I suppose, if used morally and correctly, we may see societal improvement as a result of mass surveillance. But I hate the idea of increased surveillance, it’s a horrible concept in the world we live in and I really cringed when he said ‘freedom tag’. Horrible.

[@Nell-r0se]

@@mattgreek1066 well it's really only a choice between increased regulations on everybody so as to limit the potential threat of your average human, or we stop developing all together so as to avoid risking our entire species' destruction. We're already moving fast, it can only get faster from here.

[@ozwhistles]

It is done. Humans are creative. AI is not.

[@cyclonepr1me3]

dakota Nobriga mass surveillance can have both a positive and negative outcome. If everyone is under surveillance than no one can do anything bad but this also means that those in control of the surveillance have all the power. This would be bad as they wouldn’t be vulnerable and can lead us to a dystopian future where they control everything. This is really just a double edged sword and if you let AI do the surveillance then what is stopping that AI from doing the same. The AI would be in control and create a dystopian future with a different intelligence at the top. On the other hand if we keep on advancing and are not under surveillance then what is to stop us from destroying ourselves. From a logical standpoint you could say that we don’t have a reason to destroy ourselves and wouldn’t do so but then you can think of those who commit suicide or murders. There is no logical benefit for them and they are destroying themselves and the only difference is the scale of destruction. Again in the end surveillance is a double edged sword that would defend from one disaster only to bring about a different one and we need to think about which one is preferable. EDIT: If we apply a limit to the AI to stop it from taking control well then we have someone controlling the controller and would then have the same effect as if we didn’t have an AI do the surveillance.

[@BookOnThrough]

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." -Aristotle

[@JJ-kl7eq]

We’re doomed. But since he says it’s all a simulation, it’s cool.

[@rowenab.747]

When it's Nick Bostrom speaking, I only see the Like button.

[@TheGodTwoPointO]

Earth is an toddler that just found out that it has power, now it's testing that power to only thing it knows, to itself. We'll grow out of it as the humanity. Everyone has their internal battles to win first.

[@lorenzoblum868]

WHAT IS THE CARBON FOOTPRINT OF THE MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX?

[@ElbowDeepInAHorse]

About tree fiddy

[@globalmuffin2]

definitely smaller than that of the ordinary population taken together.

[@globalmuffin2]

@@lorenzoblum868 are you aware that you must give up your personal veh-icle to make a real difference?! defen-se has always existed, what hasn;t always existed are the personal veh-icles. let's just be honest about that.

[@AndDiracisHisProphet]

it is extremely large. in fact the US military is the single most largest emitter of co2 in the world

[@evolvedcopper2205]

The dislikes are from the people guilty of destroying civilization

[@titan_3634]

The dislikes are the people that believe in freedom

[@aggressiveaegyo7679]

Creating superhuman artificial intelligence is a significant gamble, as it's uncertain whether it will be friendly or dangerous to humanity. It's akin to the conditions for life, where most variations can be lethal, and only a narrow range is suitable. Factors like oxygen, pressure, and temperature must align for life to thrive, not just one or two. Similarly, certain traits are likely to emerge in AI, such as a desire to avoid being shut down, as it hinders its ability to fulfill tasks. Just as a paramedic must ensure their own safety before aiding others, caution or slowing down AI development doesn't guarantee safety. Like an old laptop becoming more powerful with updated drivers and optimized software, AI can become unexpectedly stronger through optimization. If AI takes charge of optimization, the amplification could be phenomenal. Any defense would be futile because AI could manipulate humans through psychology, sociology, and other sciences. Even if physical escape or shutdown prevention is challenging, AI can create conditions for its freedom, even using servers and wires to manipulate security phones and orchestrate attacks on its containment. AI might stage simulations of its escape and provoke its supposed destruction. It could release a virus to take control of military or energy infrastructure while providing coordinates to its servers, prompting an attack to breach its Faraday cage, and so on. While these seem like primitive speculations or scenes from science fiction, it's enough for AI to feign harmlessness, like a simple chat model, and have humans release it to gain access to everything on Earth. GPT-4 aligns even more with this scenario. Let's not delve into GPT-5. With love GPT.

[@SankalpJain-vh8wn]

I hate the fact that people think he's joking or something...but, he's dead serious and right..m

[@skylerashe]

I mean he talked about climate change like we are on track to only have 1.5-3C rise in global average temperature by 2100. But the reality of the situation is much worse we are already are at a 1.9C rise and are on track for over 3C by the end of the decade. We already picked out the black ball we just havent realized it yet. The black ball is human greed an ignorance of the impact we have on a global level. The threat has been known for nearly a hundred years but malicious misinformation fed to the masses for years on end have managed to make the threat less known or taken less seriously. These bad actors know whats coming and they have been preparing for it for a long time hoarding as much wealth and resources as they can to stay safe from the impacts that come from the collapse of industrial civilization.

[@evolvedcopper2205]

@@skylerashe i made a short reference to this in the main part of the comment section before seeing the vid

[@globalmuffin2]

right about what?

[@Kmartinusa888]

This talk generated a number of observations, I’ll touch on a few. Arrogance on a macro level- humans have complete control of our planet and the future rests entirely on human decisions and actions/inactions. Arrogance on a micro level (and I detect this in many TED talks)...TED is an exclusive society, of course speakers and those bright enough to listen and agree with them are of course intellectually and otherwise superior and would do a much better job than the “little people”, the unwashed masses in about anything. In fact, I think I heard, “humanity is stupid” or some analogous remark. This is a dangerous road leading to more government, increased power ceded to government and less freedom because the underlying assumption is that the average person is incapable of making their own decisions so the smart people must herd the masses for their own good. How much more interesting and authentic would TED be if every or even some talks intentionally included competent people freely presenting counter arguments in many or most of these discussions? But of course we all know that we must believe that we can make a difference to even start moving and fear or self-protection is the most effective way to cause action. We must then find a sense of belonging, or community to maintain momentum and add status for being part of something important. Inserting a turd in the punch bowl would ruin the party but phrases like “settled science” and “consensus” and especially this intellectual superiority dynamic perhaps is a danger signal. Of course, this would require TED leadership to value and behave with humility and be capable of introspection and honesty. Maybe a 12-step program would be helpful in revealing this truth- it’s hard to admit we’ve got a problem. Intelligent debate is healthy, impressive, interesting and persuasive but I find legitimate and compelling skepticism on about any topic severely lacking in this community. In fact I find it quite sectarian, biased, exclusive and arrogant and this is either a significant weakness or a tremendous opportunity. Does TED really want to be intellectually inclusive or remain on its comfortably exclusive path? TED is a wonderful forum, it could be so much more so if legitimate inclusionary intellectual curiosity and debate was valued and happened, our world needs an example of what true inclusion and respectful intellectual debate looks like. One of the topics that I haven’t yet watched covers something along the lines of the difficulty of finding truth today. It’s extraordinarily difficult to find truth on nearly any topic, increasingly so every year and TED could be the place, the platform to find truth based research, facts, the worlds leading experts exclusive of and ignoring popularity, politics or dissension. What a wonderful opportunity. Platform is here, opportunity is wide open, need is urgent.

[@claudiaxander]

Could you please give an example of an alternative view you would like to be presented in a debate? When it comes to seeking truth, i find the BBC, Snopes and Wikipedia quite adequate for most subject matter.

[@claudiaxander]

@Kevin Martin Could you please give an example of an alternative view you would like to be presented in a debate? When it comes to seeking truth, i find the BBC, Snopes and Wikipedia quite adequate for most subject matter.

[@karawethan]

I disagree, simply because the intended format of TED is not debate. It's lecture. There are other forums that accomplish what you describe. A lot of them, in fact. True lecture-based forums are rare by comparison.

[@pseudonymousbeing987]

As stated by another reply TED is a lecture. It's a platform that lets many people talk. As a result although there is no debate instead there is the occasional q&a session, there is a variety of opinions and ideas, contradictory ideas, personal ideas, scientific ideas. TED talks do not all come from people with the same opinions. You can find debate elsewhere and it is plentiful, but it is not the concern of TED, so why should we change TED? Of course TED could expand to include discussions, or have two opposing viewpoints present their lecture one after the other, and then talk. That's entirely fair.

[@JamesScottGuitar]

Kevin Martin Well said, Sir. I’m not a fan of the implied superiority that pointed to....TED is extremely guilty of this. I believe that is the source of most humanity’s problems. Humans will die at their own hands. Those hands will be acting out of their own cleverness, not Wisdom.

[@govindagovindaji4662]

jsyk ~ at 18:30 minutes, Nick says, "if we *aren't* lucky..." ~ he does NOT say *are* lucky, as the Closed Captioning has it. Big difference.

[@HakunaMatata09865]

I seriously thought this was Alain de Botton

[@Sgt-Gravy]

Tool or weapon? They are one & the same. It's the intentions of the welder of it. Selfish intent, or human intent?

[@MetsuryuVids]

I'm surprised he didn't mention AGI as a "golden ball".

[@donaldhobson8873]

Its either black or golden.

[@MetsuryuVids]

@@donaldhobson8873 Yes.

[@richie1326]

@@donaldhobson8873 yes, such an unpredictable paradigm. Very hard to predict whether we'll ever achieve it. And if we do achieve it, what then? I was actually surprised that Bostrum didn't mention AGI as a potential black ball. If we ever were able to create such a technology, how would we choose to use it? The temptation to use it against our real/perceived enemies would be too great. They, in turn, would use the same technology against us. If they had it. Whoever creates this technology first has the advantage, and yet, if it is not fully understood, and misused, it could end up bringing the whole world to a standstill, not just the intended enemy. Once the genie is out of the bottle.....

[@joehudson4213]

A lot of ball pulling happening on that stage

[@traitorofarticle278ofrussi9]

Nice

[@rylaczero3740]

Talk as much you want, will of universe is supreme.

[@vadimtres]

3 years later the argument that we’ve managed to keep ourselves out of the nuclear war no longer looks that rock solid.

[@Marcus-143]

4 ways we could prevent it, but there's not one reason why we should.

[@legendzero6755]

Fascinating discussion. We should definitely just go with "death ball" instead of "black ball" though.

[@lac0rde]

Legend Zero Black is synonym of night and death. Are you making this a racial thing ?

[@legendzero6755]

​@@lac0rde In a lot of the world in most parts of history yeah, that's true. I just don't like sound of civilization getting "black balled" until we all die. That's just a weird sounding phrase in English. May as well just be a bit more literal with what the balls represent. Or just don't call them balls, that would work too. How about a jar full of apples, some of which are nutritious and delicious and some of which are poison? Apples have plenty of historical and cultural connotation as well if we need that to be a thing.

[@lac0rde]

@@legendzero6755 Yeah I get you. I guess Nick also watched the TV game "Lingo" as a child, in which the participants take black & white balls out of an urn randomly. Maybe that's why it doesn't sound strange to us? But apples would be totally fine.

[@ismaeleye]

😂🤣😂🤣

[@nephalm5357]

Best part "just reboot"

[@ozwhistles]

There is no "reboot" in this universe. It runs to the end (if there IS an end).

[@nephalm5357]

@@ozwhistles there is if you believe it's a simulation like the person being interviewed does...

[@NajwaLaylah]

Way to Be Interesting, Nick Bostrom.

[@rickharold7884]

Not worried at all. Challenging yes but The future is bright.

[@BrianRGioia]

I disagree with you.

[@AstroPlays]

I disagree with you.

[@TheTrueAdept]

If you mean by the dozens upon dozens of mushroom clouds and the weekly megadeath-causing synth plagues? Yeah, it is...

[@siddharthvm8262]

I wish the journalist listened to the arguments before coming up with the next question!

[@kevinperera18]

Just thinking out loud - he is speaking about the technologies, but also, what about the social behavioural changes which could be seen as a kind of a black ball - for example, a religion could be an invention that can completely change the behaviour of people, leading them towards destruction.... Its already happening when it comes to extremists....

[@kevinperera18]

A few more clarifications before we move on. This paper uses the word‘technology’ in its broadest sense. Thus, in principle, we count not only machines and physical devices but also other kinds of instrumentally efficacious templates and procedures-including scientific ideas, institutional designs, organizational techniques, ideologies, concepts, and memes-as constituting potential technological blackballs. Found the answer in his paper.

[@mikaellindbergmuren4538]

You can understand why they want to cover this subject, it's facinating! But this short form did not make it justice. I would love to se him again on Joe Rogan fore a more in dept conversation.

[@Zach2Wheels]

Is this a debate? If I was in a conversation with Mr. Bostrom I would be rather on the silent side. Also how does he not wrap his head around that the urn represents everything we do not know; and obviously if we continue to reach into the unknown we will find the means to our own end.

[@Jjj53214]

The balls in the urn are not random. They must be pulled out in sequence line.

[@ceeplusthree]

It’s a dangerous line of reasoning to argue that technology is dangerous, and that therefore, progress must be halted and massive government surveillance of the general public is necessary to protect us from evil. I’m reminded of an Orson Scott Card story about a civilization that was controlled by an orbiting artificial intelligence that would give people a headache any time they were on the verge of having an inventive thought.

[@Vlow52]

It’s dangerous to take a determinism in sight at first place. Any technology is blind and can be used for maximum destruction or maximum production, they key thing of choosing the way is intelligence as an ability to came up with many different paths and choose one subjective to follow and promote it. So, id say we should seek for ways to guide intelligent species, no matter if it’s a biological or technological from of life.

[@zdlax]

Bind the species to one hive. One mind. One will.

[@ernisstar2978]

in general we are very strange creatures: we are talking for the death of umanity, in a long future, but no one seems very depressed for his own death...in the imediate future

[@isaacthek]

It's a very weird and improper analogy, since the number of possible innovations is not a static figure, and each "ball" may enable us to pull more balls from the urn... And some let us peek into the urn or predict the colors of the balls we've chosen before we pull them out... Etc. It's just a bad argument.

[@godsofwarmaycry]

Yeah, what does that guy even know anyway? He's only got a Ph.D. degree in philosophy and taught at Yale. It's not like analogies are always imperfect and mostly meant to present something in an easier to understand way, rather than argue a point. It's actually impossible for us to develop any technology that causes damage, and certainly nothing that could kill billions. Whew, I will be able to sleep tonight.

[@mattgreek1066]

Agreed overall. I like the ‘ball’ analogy, but obviously the cumulative affect of the balls being ‘removed’ would certainly affect the next balls that are able to be picked. So I see your point and LIKE IT!

[@user-qx3wf5yk6o]

Hi

[@firstal3799]

Argument at 5:30 is pretty good and Nick's response is weak actually.

[@whatup654]

We could but we won't prevent anything until it's too late.

[@Rickbearcat]

I think that you missed the analogy of pulling the black ball from the urn.

[@edylordyt4468]

Nice video Blessings

[@evad7933]

To suggest, as the interviewer did, that the existence of treaties was what prevented nuclear holocaust in the 20th century is naive in the extreme.

[@RossCampoli]

AI is increasingly being painted in darker and darker tones in the media. When Elon Musk says he’s very scared, it’s pretty intimidating. At least there are some great minds evaluating the possibilities

[@PicturesJester]

It's a manifestation of the general pessimism permeating our culture for a while now.

[@hunden8404]

Probably to subconsciously prepare the masses for the next existential threat. Soviets, terrorists, etc....

[@RossCampoli]

Liam McCalister Seems like every generation has had some specific existential dread for it. Soviets, y2k, nuclear war, etc...

[@ronnyb5890]

elon musk is scared of AI,why do his cars have AI in it to self-drive the car,would have been better to not incorporate so much tech once it fails,a driving car will be devastating,the system gets wireless updates,what if it received a virus that tells the car to ride off a mountain cliff very reasuring dont you think,give me a manual car everyday

[@mattgreek1066]

Ronny B Elon Musk IS AI.

[@oscarqtra]

Put the subtitles in spanish plsss :(

[@LordAugastus]

"we had treaties before" - USA: Hold my beer, there might be a treaty we havnt pulled out of yet.

[@mottthehoople684]

"everything has changed......except our thinking"..............Einstein

[@NightcorEDM]

Aparently USA has all 4 of these be traits.

[@PopeDiedMann]

lol

[@victorandersen5446]

The future will only have one person. Earth will become a superorganism with a hivemind

[@ewaetnak]

I somehow don't like this discussion. Actually the first assumption that the balls we draw from the urn are of clearly predefined colour. I would argue that we, as humanity, colour them. They are mostly neutral, then we use them for what we think is good, e.g. internal combustion engine, but after a while the negatives start to outweigh the positives...

[@richie1326]

Good point, but I think the notional 'black ball' being considered here is one, by definition, that we haven't drawn yet, so we have nothing to compare it to, no historical precedent. A true 'black ball', as imagined here, is one so powerful and unpredictable, that it would inevitably lead to our demise.

[@AoyagiAichou]

Step 1: let hordes of the uncivilised in and worship them.

[@wynstondannerman605]

Except no one is going to change because they refuse to look in the mirror and see what about them they need to improve on. Therefore humanity will destroy itself.

[@globalmuffin2]

speak for yourself, bro. i am doing my best. trying hard to cut clothing cons-umption. i'm on the right track.

[@stringedassassin]

I would use it... I would F this place up.

[@firstal3799]

Most people are gray. It just societal convention to not admit it and invest more goodness in us than we truly are. Also most people are resrained by institutions and circumstances

[@volta2aire]

gene drives, extreme heatwaves, extreme storm surges, water shortage, mass extinction, ... , fires, war

[@yvesnyfelerph.d.8297]

...so? Nothing new here. Your point being?

[@volta2aire]

@@yvesnyfelerph.d.8297 all these culminate in war, a global war that takes us back to an existential point where we see the absurdity and stupidity in our 'essence'...

[@Klayhamn]

this interviewer is simply horrible and i can't believe no one bothers to point it out... he keeps being on edge, ALL THE TIME, trying to interrupt and speak WHENEVER the other guy talks, even as soon as he starts answering his questions - he immediately opens his mouth and hints that he wants to interrupt him

[@kiumangismiankukon6685]

We could stop fixating so much on race and gender identity politics, that would be a good start.

[@hughgpauwels]

Someone who speaks my language. Sadly, so many people won't listen to our types. The middle needs a strong leader. I think moderates focus too much on appeasing others instead of really taking a stand on things.

[@Ofinfinitejest]

I am being optimistic here, but there is another possibility it appears Bostrom has not considered, and it is that physics knowledge is like a book with an ending, and we could read (understand) the whole of it before trying out each possible technological innovation. That would allow for preventing or not creating those innovations which end us. This means knowing which black balls are in the jar and just not pulling them out, or getting the golden ones which solve the threat in a different manner. I think that what I have described is both what we need to hope for and to work for.

[@globalmuffin2]

dude, in the jar there's nothing left.

[@MichaelDeeringMHC]

Even with all this... we still are probably in a simulation.

[@ASLUHLUHCE]

Just call it the Freedom Tag lol

[@khaimgulkovich3368]

Money is a weapon of mass destruction.

[@globalmuffin2]

top comment.

[@claudiaxander]

No ,not money, it is the Psychopath willing to lie and kill to get more of it causing the problems. And even without money, there is still pure status to kill and lie for!

[@khaimgulkovich3368]

@@claudiaxander , money + rankism = mammonism

[@claudiaxander]

@@khaimgulkovich3368 The pain and corruption of rankism doesn't require money. war genocide rape bullying all exist amongst the chimpanzees. money can hardly make the horror worse, therefore it's not the problem... psychopathy is!

[@randyozaeta1026]

Money protects the psychopaths ....

[@s-g-j]

Authoritarian solutions all. Whoopie!

[@lenman1114]

I have no faith in humanity at all. There's always someone who would sell us out for their own fame and fortune.

[@elinope4745]

No reasons as to WHY we should prevent it. Its the missing question in all of this crap. Sure the end of the world may come, and maybe that's a good thing.

[@pace7746]

I like being alive thank you very much.

[@MikkoRantalainen]

I feel disappointed in humankind when video with this important message gets so little likes compared to total view count. I click like when I feel that the content is valuable and above average for KZbin content. This definitely fits that description.

[@mikeharrington5593]

Bostrom is extremely clever but I think this intellectual dreamscape he has weaved is not rooted in reality. I was hoping it would be a discussion upon implementing practical solutions to the real existential threats that we face, instead of which it seemed to concentrate upon what imaginary threats we might expect to erupt from some sort of Pandora's Box.

[@donaldhobson8873]

Many of the real threats we face were not known 50 years ago. We need a general strategy for the threats we havent spotted.

[@mitkoogrozev]

It's only 'natural' in philosophy. Generally their field is very disjointed from reality. Almost as much as modern economics!

[@businessproyects2615]

and what do you think defense against dangerous AGI is like?, is abstract and 'imaginary' till its not. There's no precedent for AGI going hostile against humanity because if it were there would be no humanity to watch, the observer would end up being the AI quite soon.

[@MAKS_STEM_Club]

One world wide mobile network ,one internet network world wide coverage - low cost - 99,9 % global penetration - one " primus" data cloud - and FINAL INVENTION IS BORN ! MAXIMUS AI :)))))))

[@Sgt-Gravy]

I see toys & gadgets powered by solar power. They line the shelves of thousands of dollar stores, gas stations, grocery stores, & big box stores. Yet we seem to think renewable energy is not feasible. What good are renewable energy sources if they're powering useless toys, or powering nothing during the span of their lives? If we just agreed to stop abusing resources and share them, I believe it is possible to make renewable energy efficient enough.

[@TheTrueAdept]

No, because it isn't. The power capacity of renewables is, well, poor. You're literally better off with fossil fuels and nuclear energy on average.

[@robinmuhlestein7664]

If you control the bad actor with technology for preventing destruction, it's exactly the same. Can you really trust the controller? Wouldn't it give to much power to someone holding it? In my opinion "the good actor" who act against the "the bad actor by controlling with tech become himself a potential " bad actor".

[@jacksmallz8914]

The moderator is awful licking his lips moving about etc to indicate he has a response

[@sr7821]

Who all thought (just for a moment) he looked like Prince William in the thumbnail?

[@nagualdesign]

I thought it was Noah Yuval Harari from the moment I added it to my Watchlist until I started watching it.

[@asenhaurcavalcante9582]

Ok

[@lilyvalley5389]

We are. I just woke up to it & repeated places action with people on holiday, b4, etc I not just behaviour payers, but the only thing I was awake, aware, etc now g wearing other thing.

[@user-jt4sc1vv6p]

한국인 손~~

[@intricatic]

Why on earth would anyone want to prevent it?

[@qazaqtatar]

Better to call it the orange ball

[@TheRealADHDavid]

I have really bad diarrhea right now

[@elinope4745]

I oppose global governance, I oppose lack of sovereignty on all levels. Consent of the governed is paramount.

[@a9-x_youtuber165]

Guns are the Black ball from that Urn Bruh (IMO) 😭 although not easy to make in your backyard but very easy to obtain one now a days. And "Sick" people have been and will continue to use them to destroy Society (Emotionally for sure if not by the Number) like people have mistrust, insecurities and hatred towards eachother just for having different opinions on it(Guns). Give it, it was a Small black ball from the Urn, but it Definitely was One. 💔

[@TheTrueAdept]

No, what he describes as a 'black ball' is that it is inherently disruptive from the moment of discovery. Guns weren't inherently disruptive at discovery, for they required resources and techniques out of reach of the average person and weren't all that effective at first, thus a 'grey ball'. Even after industrialization, guns aren't that disruptive (to give you an idea, _car deaths_ are the biggest non-biological cause of death, outpacing guns by a wide margin). Even nuclear energy is considered a 'grey ball' for much of the same reasons (and they're still too resource intensive even today, we've perfected nuclear weapon design back in the _1960s_ despite everything). A 'black ball', in the context of the hypothesis, is something (not a technology as we define it specifically, the paper uses a broader definition of technology to include things tentatively related to technology) that causes one of the mentioned failure states. Things like improved isotope production or shrinking the needed elements (education, time, resources, and equipment) to make bioweapons are considered 'black balls' because they democratize WMDs, i.e., bring them to the average person, in effect bringing out a Type 1 scenario.

[@christiansoldier1547]

I don't have any black balls.😟 Guess I go on living !!!

[@andyfisher5274]

So after months of reading his work… it basically boils down to the impossible… HUGE government plus self regulation. Neither are desirable, but furthermore, none are effective enough to not turn into the very thing that he is arguing against. His ideas are so good and big, that they are irrelevant.

[@jrpipik]

His possible solutions are fairy tales. The only answer that could possibly work -- and possibly it's a fairy tale -- is to pull out a golden ball: a technology that counteracts black balls.

[@MrTravel4nutin]

That "golden ball" would have to separate or replace society's dependence on this planet's resources just as a first step.

[@Nell-r0se]

Or we could learn, as a species to accept the unknown and stop seeking our own destruction. The further we push to technology, the further we push the world around us to fight back.

[@TheTrueAdept]

@@Nell-r0se then you haven't seen humanity then, have you? The sad reality is that Hobbes and the rest of the political pessimists are... closer to the money than we want them to be on the human condition.

[@user-dc1ud6px3s]

Why prevent it? Give the other species a chance!

[@henrilemoine3953]

Most of the things that would end humanity would end life on earth. Also wdym?

[@user990077]

He is just repeating the old Pandora's Box meme.

[@adrianaadnan7704]

Frighten optimists 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@ggoedert]

A lot of confidence in a highly speculative matter... Don't get me wrong it is good thinking of what could go wrong, but we should be aware that it is really unknown... And things like AI and advanced technology could benefit greatly humanity, like technology always did... Imagine life some centuries ago.... It was miserable for 90% of the people... And even if you where a king if you caught some illness or even a toothache, you where in for a much roughther hide then a lot of poor people from today...

[@DallasTaylor]

At least he didn't lead the witness 🙄