Ten Ways the Ukraine-Russia War Could End

[@Gametheory101]

Correction: at 9:44 it should be *eastward* (as the map illustrates), not westward.

[@mikeventer8243]

⁰

[@larisamikhaylova6782]

Your whole video is baseless incoherent conjecture filled with half thruths and uneducated ill-informed opinions.

[@Madmaxxxx1984]

Chaundria ??

[@ninianstorm6494]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/f3PIg3Vtp7yelZo current ukraine gov not so innocent since they bomb 7 years donbass they came in to power by cia shoot at protestors and guards to hide behind protestors shoot at guards plus obama did red line, all so hunter biden get even cheaper oil invest by deplete some of overall population kzbin.info/www/bejne/jGrVn6KbZp2kadU wesley clark reveal 2000 to 2012 all rig for kill iraq to syria kzbin.info/www/bejne/lZ7Ve4V-rMeJfZo dnc kill 50 in vegas/portland, thugs attack with stand down cops san jose/charlotte, burn loot several months, sabotage afgan withdraw using russia bounty smear to give taliban equip kzbin.info/www/bejne/i6nSfWuqfbiUbck everyone remember nbc threaten follow jury with later to use thought police thugs? they gave protest t- shirts to san quan mayor puerto rico to lie about never receive hurricane maria aid kzbin.info/www/bejne/p4rQdKePgapsoZI kzbin.info/www/bejne/p2aZZ6Ofm8mhi5Y

[@jeremiahvanderhoff6432]

Ty so much for your input sir 🙏 but all else fails any American im in Ohio and my friends and family are 900k 5.56 deep

[@SoApost]

11. Alien invasion 12. Asteroid 13. Rapture 14. Supervolcano 15. Simian Flu 16. Supernova 17. Black hole gamma ray burst 18. Donald Trump 19. Canadian Truckers 20. Skynet

[@Gametheory101]

Now this is the content I was hoping to read.

[@machintelligence]

@@Gametheory101 Possibly add: Putin does not long survive surgery to remove cancer and his successor has no stomach for inheriting Putin's war. Russians retreat and Putin is blamed.

[@jenniferclark9842]

Asteroid on Putin’s bunker?

[@senatorstevenarmstrong6703]

21: Aquaman

[@retire14pattaya9]

Trump 2024

[@jan-seli]

"NATO has drifted westward over time" I think you either mean Ukraine has drifted westward or NATO has drifted eastward

[@AMD64EVER]

haha, I caught that as well :)

[@romualdop.regondola6697]

L ?

[@jan-seli]

@@romualdop.regondola6697 + ratio

[@buddy1155]

NATO drifted westward, just very very far westward.

[@ericvandet8517]

@@buddy1155 Except that is is the nations in the East that ASKED to become part of NATO, not NATO asking them to - in fact much of NATO was reluctant - I wonder why they asked - could it be they were next to RUSSIA?

[@uweengelmann3]

What you haven't covered are economic scenarios.They may lead to one of the other endings , but can be of importance of their own. A fullscale economic war between Europe and Russia has many consequences. Europe depends much on the Russian ressources.

[@alfredotacus8233]

I think a better way of saying it is that a US led economic war on Russia will have massive consequences for Europe

[@ratatatuff]

Once the sanctions really kick in (which might take some time, though) Russia will be done. Europe is already trying to find strategies to get independent from Russian oil and gas. Once that is solved, it's game over for Putin.

[@uweengelmann3]

@@ratatatuff Europe was on its way to not need fossile fuels after 2050. But that is not in a few month that are many years. To get gas from other sources is really tough. It is so much easier to transport it in pipes than with ships.

[@ratatatuff]

@@uweengelmann3 But they are making more of an effort now. It will still take years but not three decades.

[@volta1337]

When the bulls fight, the grass will suffer. If USA and Russia went on an economic war, it would like to draw many Russian-resource-dependence countries' economy to collapse with barely any effect on USA and Russia themselves. Ukraine already cut 1/3 Russian oil route to Europe, meaning that they're shooting themselves and are shooting Europe, too. Many countries, NATO or EU or not, relies on Russian oil in Europe, now the trade has been cut down to 2/3, a lot of nations will suffer. Yet this is not even considering the hard response of countries such as Bulgaria and Poland who are very anti Russian, it will cause their economy and oil reserve going downhill because they did not accept to pay Russian oil with Gruppe so Putin will certainly cut all trade to the actively hostile countries.

[@AndrD1406]

If Zelensky is eliminated nothing changes. Ukraine doesn't fight for him.

[@a_doma]

I dont think so. Zelensky says that Ukraine should fight till Russia give up. ( I think)

[@user-bw5lt5ln6n]

@@a_doma so? We are not fighting for Zelensky, and our government does not rely only on him. Even if he is eliminated, our govt will keep fighting till victory

[@BuranStrannik]

@@a_doma it is likely that he says that to comply with nation, not other way around. After all that happened in these months, nothing less than victory AND full compensation from russian side can be accepted by people, and them there in high chairs understand this.

[@kennethsizer6217]

Imagine if the British had captured or killed George Washington. Would American forces collapse? No, but it would have had a massive effect on the morale of both the British and the American combatants. The British would have been energized and the Americans would have -- at least briefly -- been in disarray. There are big differences, of course: Washington was a direct, hands-on military leader. Zelensky is not. Zelensky is extremely effective at rallying his people and the world on a daily basis. That simply wasn't possible in the 18th century. Still, I think we should not underestimate the importance of key individuals like Washington, Napoleon, Castro, and Zelensky.

[@AndrD1406]

@@kennethsizer6217 We fight for country, not some "strong leaders"

[@Rocketsong]

The invasion started in 2014, it just kicked off into a higher tempo in 2022. This is going to end up as a multi year attritional war much like WWI. Russia has well dug in and fortified positions from their initial invasion in 2014, so while Ukraine will likely be able to push back most Russian gains since February, they will have a very difficult time dislodging them from Crimea, and the parts of Donbass they already occupied.

[@akhsdenlew1861]

Ukraine can just keep shelling donbass and crimea till there's nothing left but dust.

[@TravisJones812]

Yeah they aren't getting Crimea back, although they may manage to sink most of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. They've been nice enough not to destroy the Kerch Strait Bridge

[@AronAroniteOnlineTV]

Civil war started in 2014.Maudsn revolution ! Orchestrated by Western agencies.Subversion of ukraine to proxy of western powers.You think Russia must watch ethnic cleansing by nazi Battalions in east ukraine which is Russian ethnic region.Looks like Russians don't have any rights at all in your world.

[@justinklinck6575]

NATO's support will probably hold the Russians at a stand still, and if UK and/or U.S. get involved, I don't think Russia is going to have a very good time. However, I wouldn't be Surprised if putin attempts to take as much of the world with him as possible, using nucl*ar power, as a last ditch effort, once his joke of an army is getting f*cked too hard.

[@justinklinck6575]

In the 40's they were about to be Germany's b*tch if the winter and Hitler's dumb commands didn't save their a**es

[@FredrikHaugen]

The major problem with these ways is that it's completely gives Ukraine no action or motivation. Putin might have started the war, but he's not the one that ends the war. The war only ends when both sides agrees on it. As we seen so far the Ukrainian side, strengthen by it's ability to throw the Russian from northern Ukraine, has made it abundantly clear that they see no other possibility(as for now) that the war only ends when the pre-2014 borders are restored. Far from agreeing on any concessions of giving up any Ukrainian territory. The terror that Russians has unleashed on the civilian populace and with the bombing of civilian infrastructure only strengthen their resolve. If you follow the information and discussions on the Ukraine side they have shifted their mindset from fighting to survive, to fighting to win. P.S. Ukraine has never been in a civil war. They have had parts of their country annexed or infiltrated by Russian forces. If those forces would leave the Donbass regions those will fall like a house of cards. The only reason that they are still fighting is that Russia is pumping in massive amount of money into the hands of people, best described as mafia.

[@Geordiicus]

Ukraine is being manipulated as a kind of proxy war for the US. Noticeable by the raising of the USA rhetoric, why isn't the USA interested in peace?

[@kerchtrucking]

@@Geordiicus what are you saying? they're motivated because their country is being invaded and their fellow citizens are being slaughtered

[@nero91]

@@Geordiicus I'd say its because russia invaded them. Destruction of your home and death of friends and loved ones is a pretty good motivator to fight. And USA is not interested in peace because this can fuel the MIC while brutally weakening russia at the same time. And they get to be good guys again. Win Win Win.

[@FredrikHaugen]

@@Geordiicus Yet again giving Ukraine no own motivation to throw out the invader. Having your loved ones raped and pillaged usually is a good motivator to throw out those perpetrating in such actions. The US AND the EU helps Ukraine at their best ability to be able to withstand the onslaught of those who attacked them. Or do you feel that Ukraine has no right of existence and deserves whats been done to them?

[@MustafaBaabad]

Thank you for your view. It is very logical.

[@ADobbin1]

Ukraine has apparently stated that the only peace treaty they will accept is complete return of all illegally taken territory. This is now a total victory or nothing situation for both.

[@richard-gn3es]

Wouldn't they have to say that. You don't start negotiations under what you want. You don't negotiate to sell a $100 dollar watch and start at $20 dollars. You ask for $150 and go from there?

[@liamr194]

Nobody in a negotiation shows their hand do they. Ukraine has no capacity to take back the territory and if it became even slightly likely, Putin would act. A brokered ceasefire whilst both sides (Russia and NATO) rearm is far more likely

[@thereita1052]

Not quite. From last time I heard the unaccettabile territory Is the per 2022 borders whic are not so far from what the front line look today. Total victory would mean go into Crimea or the pre 2022 occupied dombass.

[@janestones323]

😂

[@janestones323]

@@Spearca They were not! Don’t disinform audience! There had been intensely getting prepared for exactly this for near 10 years!

[@yakubiv]

The analysis is good, thank you. However, remember, you just **cannot** call the annexation of Crimea and dropping russian military forces onto eastern parts of Ukraine 'a civil war'! It is not a civil war, it is a hybrid war between russia and Ukraine, taking place since 2014

[@pavlobirch]

I was just about to say that. After hearing that, this channel lost all credibility to me. That's what happens when westerners analyse Ukraine without knowing anything about the country.

[@user-py7hh5vo3l]

A long history exists that should be better understood. Thanks Viktor

[@yakubiv]

@@user-py7hh5vo3l No, it doesn't; and it's Kyiv by the way. Moscow was first mentioned 6 centuries after Kyiv was founded.

[@user-py7hh5vo3l]

@@yakubiv yes thanks for both corrections

[@theludakuproject4170]

Well the donbas was always a pretty problematic area considering the fact that they wannted to join russia and all.

[@BenRusk11]

what disgusts me the most about a WW3 situation is it's always a case of "you hit me, so now i *have* to hit you back *even harder* " in other words, destruction of everything on this planet as we know it would be done through *voluntary actions* of just a small handful of people.

[@Lordoftheflamesissketchy]

i agree

[@mdev69]

If more of you people would have just rolled over and died of Covid like Oligarchs had planned then it would not have come down to WW3. The only people who will die in war are the poor.

[@SajjadAli-vj5nf]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/gmjYiXR-erhghMk

[@apelsinuke]

yeah. i wish usa had some sort of interception thingie to take a ru nuke and turn it around, sending it right back where it came from, like a ball in a game of tennis. or, perhaps, have ru nu-clear weap0ns facilities under some space laser all the time, and if a nuke is launched - strike it right at the site before it has even left the hatch. i mean, they must have some opening with some sort of door which will start opening if it's being launched, so then a laser takes a standby position, and as soon as missile shows up - immediate strike. best way to avoid casualties on the defending side - expl0de it in where it came from.

[@cortster12]

I don't believe WWIII is synonymous with a nuclear exchange. It CAN be, but not necessarily.

[@rogerclarke7407]

You missing one big detail about WWIII, if there is a Nuclear exchange between US and Russia, Its not just the targeted cities that will be destroyed, the resulting nuclear winter will mean the whole word will suffer severe famine. Billions would die.

[@1999bishop]

he just said that, were you even listening?

[@vadimromansky8235]

not necessarly. modern studies shows that nuclear winter can be an overestimation

[@Hwje1111]

That’s just 1980s era fear-mongering of all things nuclear. There is capability to not only survive a nuclear war, but win a nuclear war. The nukes of today are too few in number, and even today it’s not going to be as destructive as say; a supervolcano in southeast asia changing the seasons themselves. You have to know where to hit however and it would still admittedly be very destructive.

[@magnagamer8256]

@@vadimromansky8235 ah yes a nuclear winter from 5-10 gigatons of tnt is totally overestimated

[@Matthew_Murray]

Nuclear winter is overhyped fear mongering from the 1980s based on limited data of the time and bad analysis. A full out nuclear exchange would still destroy a lot of modern civilization and would cause untold death in the millions, but it wouldn’t cause a world ending post apocalypse situation

[@deblxdee]

The "overwhelm" security and brute forces in Russia won't happen, as it has a lot of police, a national guard - rosgvardia, OMON, SOBR, FSB and many more layers of security that are still under direct control of the government. Potentially it isn't possible for other reasons too, as such rather big support of this regime, or at least some kind of defense to it, it always goes like "Better this, that US" or it comes down to whataboutism with "US attacked Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya and got away with it, no one sanctioned them", or something else, then there's just not enough of potential revolt, those who are against this regime are already left the country or thinking about doing so in the future, rather than fighting for a dead cause. It'll likely be a palace coup, than revolt around the whole country

[@МаксВолк-р3д]

You downplay the importance of Serbia, for many of us it is not another country torn apart by NATO, but our own tragedy

[@UtDanik]

Классно ты конечно пишешь про Ливию Ирак Сербию как будто тебе насрать на сотни тысяч погибших МИРНЫХ жителей 🤡🤡🤡

[@deblxdee]

@@UtDanik пожалуйста, научитесь читать, прежде чем писать ваши гневные ответы

[@UtDanik]

@@deblxdee ты же не кремлебот с промытими мозгами чтобы использовать войны гнилого изначально запада из-за денег как отмазку или причину поддержки спецоперации и Путинского режима в таком ключе??? Спецоперация хотя бы более благородные цели имеет - спасение русских на донбассе от укрофашистов готовых бомбить свой же народ лишь бы русских в чем-то обвинить. Никто из руководства да и из просто населения россии не мог предположить что в украине есть нелюди похуже нациков во 2 мировой войне там они хотя бы свой же народ не ранили и не убивали лишь бы русским их оставить на совесть советских медиков чтобы те помогли и потратили свои лекарства и продовольствие на раненых мирных. Даже сравнивать войну за деньги со спецоперацией противно.

[@UtDanik]

@@deblxdee сравнивать спецоперацию и эти войны которые являются трагедиями для многих людей надо например рассуждая про последствия (санкции) говоря тот факт что Америку никто даже и не пытался остановить или осудить зато как Россия пальцем пошевельнет так надо сразу всем "цивилизованным" миром накинуться (так называемый цивилизованный мир которым правят деньги и США). Всем насрать что на русских что на каких-нибудь арабов.

[@TravisJones812]

2021 levels of intensity: not intense at all. In 2019-2021, the Donbass saw only 25-27 civilian fatalities per year, with over half due to landmines, according to the UN.

[@SajjadAli-vj5nf]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/gmjYiXR-erhghMk

[@AwesomeRepix]

"Only 25-27" Like that's not high at all.. Jesus, this is humans.

[@aapomaatta9211]

@@AwesomeRepix 100 people die every second on avarage

[@Bambim8]

@@AwesomeRepix For a war zone? I hope you live in the real world, bud.

[@AwesomeRepix]

@@aapomaatta9211 And? This is civilians getting killed for no reason, just because 100 die every second doesn't mean it needs to be 125

[@HsingSun]

During the Vietnam war, there were many Anti Vietnam war groups in US; Therefore, US had to withdraw the military. Russia and Ukraine war is totally different, there are more than 40 countries supported Ukraine to fight off invaders, Russian military.

[@giuseppecappelluti3626]

I don't understand the difference. The only difference I see is that Ukraine is way more important for Russia than Vietnam for the US, also symbolically. This is also why you don't see much opposition against war in Russia.

[@DAndyLord]

The Soviet government, at least in part, funded the antiwar movement to weaken the USA.

[@NuncNuncNuncNunc]

@@giuseppecappelluti3626 From listening to Russians my view of why you don't see opposition from the public is that there is a belief opposition is pointless. I will qualify this by adding that there is in fact opposition, and opposition has been met with arrests. Displaying even a blank sheet of paper can lead to arrest. Keep in mind these are not all 15 years in Siberia offenses, but enough of a disruption to ones life to make many think hard about the risk.

[@yuridzhigurdayev2000]

USSR supported Vietnam so they can kill US dogs. (and the killed a lot of them)

[@giuseppecappelluti3626]

@@DAndyLord I don’t know how relevant it is. The war was unpopular among Americans themselves. America - and the West as a whole - was undergoing epochal social changes: after the primary needs of the population were fulfilled, the secondary ones gained prominence (“vogliamo anche le rose”). It was the time of the Beat Generation, the hippies, the flower power and so on. On the other hand, many people were sent to war against their will, the war was not going well for the US at all, and this further bolstered the popularity of the anti-war movement.

[@petersmythe6462]

"A history of near misses does not guarantee future success." Yup. Also worth mentioning there is a good amount of survivorship bias that could be going on. If worldlines where nuclear conflicts happen stifle population growth in favor of dispersed populations and bunkerized construction, and kill off a few billion people in the initial exchange plus any fallout or nuclear winter effects, we're significantly less likely to look back and see that history because there would be fewer people in those worldlines actually doing so. By default, history their has a bias in favor of unreasonable, statistically unsound optimistic population growth. The future need not have such a bias.

[@urbancyber3603]

In fucking un confusing English ffs

[@Lusa_Iceheart]

"statistically unsound population growth" umm yeah that's bullcrap. The Earth is NO WHERE NEAR capacity. Overpopulation is a myth, easily disproved by physics. The real cap on the planets capacity is heat, not food production or space or anything like that. Population growth has always meant increased standards of living as more bodies are available to preform more jobs and we get more and more hyper specialized tasks done. More people means more scientists solving problems, more Einstein's born every year. As long as productive outlets can be found for expanding populations, they are nothing but a boon. At no point in human history has a country or region going thro a population collapse ever been better off than a country going thro a population boom. There is not a single example of this. The myth of overpopulation is perpetuated by eugenicists and alarmist activists infecting academia, it's simply untrue by historical patterns and just basic physics. Even when growing populations engage in wars the net benefits to the human condition are obvious. The Italian wars raged while the Renaissance and early modern era population boom swept out from northern Italy. The Industrial Revolution saw the most evil wars in human history but ushered in Pax Americana, a bizarre period of world history with very few wars of low intensity by every metric. Rather than dozens of wars occurring globally, only a handful have been ongoing at any time, this is a stark decrease to normal patterns in world history. Meanwhile the global standards of living have increased. And population doubled twice.

[@TheFinalChapters]

While survivorship bias is real, what you're proposing there relies heavily on an unfounded assumption: that if you have an equal likelihood of being born as any sentient individual in any universe. For example, imagine that the "equal likelihood" applies not to sentient individuals, but any individual lifeform. The microbial sterilization that has occurred as a result of human civilization means there are far less bacteria than on a planet lacking a civilization. And whether it does or doesn't is moot, since the odds of being a human out of all the lifeforms on the planet is astronomically small.

[@merrymachiavelli2041]

I don't really see how population growth comes into it. We might have a systematic bias is favour of 'events not wiping out humanity', but proportion of people killed doesn't tend to impact whether an event is remembered in history (might be complicated historically by whether there was anyone to write stuff down, but regardless, we still tend to know the thing happened, even if we have to rely on secondary sources). Afterall, the Black Death killed up to 50% of the European population in less than a year, and we definitely know it happened.

[@tenzingngodub641]

If you are playing Chess you need to kill the king not the soldiers to make the game over.

[@tauraginis1132]

Well said.

[@fluffyzava978]

Well said, but completly wrong for Ukraine. Maybe if Putin died, stuff would tone down. Kill Zelensky? Ukranians will just fight harder.

[@sirdavidoftor3413]

True, but this is life/ politics not chess. While in chess the game is over, in life another person becomes the king, with a totally different game and strategy. Sometimes in politics it is better to have the devil you know ( and have all that intelligence on him) then the devil you don’t! Stay safe, stay sane, stay Strong Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@JL-ro6xg]

This doesn’t work in real world , in reality you need to get rid of the soldiers first. Whether you agreed or not, This is reality

[@akhsdenlew1861]

Not gonna work.. if the king dies, he just gets replaced by a possibly worse king.

[@JohnS-ki2zf]

I believe Putin made his descision to go through with the invasion after seeing Afghanistan. The Kiev attack in the north was Putin seeing how Afghanistan let the Taliban walk right into Kabul and he expected the same for Ukraine.

[@MichalKaczorowski]

And now he have Russian Afghanistan 2.0.

[@alejandrolizarraga3924]

Yep, Russia understimated 2 times a country who acted weak and was more powerful than a Powerful Military Country

[@drunkisaac5152]

@@alejandrolizarraga3924 Ukraine is being heavily supplied with weapons from abroad and for Russia being the invader it has less troops here, because some military force must stay in the country. Also ukrainians fight on their land, therefore have a strategic advantage (for example, they blew up some of their reservoirs to slow down russian army). Even with all these factors summarized Ukraine still manages to slowly succumb to the russian forces on the battlefield. So I wouldn't call Ukraine "more powerful", but it's not weak, nonetheless.

[@ludimilojko546]

@@drunkisaac5152 Ukraine fights on their land? Russia fight on land that was Russia for more than 1000 years.. not 100.. 1000 years..

[@drunkisaac5152]

@@ludimilojko546 by calling it "their land" I meant to say that current generation of ukrainian government and military is more accustomed to this territory than russian one. Believe me, as russian myself I know about Kiyevskaya Rus, Zaporozhskaya Sech, Polish - Lithuanian Commonwealth, etc. But through the flow of history this land was reshaped by infrastructure, wich makes an advantage for ukrainian army and disadvantage for russian army.

[@metal_pipe9764]

There's also the very cursed ending where Ukraine annexes all of Russia

[@Djm95454]

You mean very best ending

[@metal_pipe9764]

@@Djm95454 yeah but it's also pretty cursed tbh

[@georgejpg]

The 'Civil War starting in 2014' was just the first phase of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Though there were was some local support for independence/unification with Russia in Donbass and Crimea, the strength of the separatists came entirely from unmarked Russian Soldiers. The political and military leadership of the breakaway puppet states remains dominated by Russian officials that weren't born in Luhansk/Donetsk and never lived there prior to the war. I think calling it a Civil War de-emphasises the fact that the Russo-Ukrainian War started with the 'little green men' entering Crimea on 23/2/14, and the Donbass front began on 12/4/14 with the 'little green men' attacking Donetsk.

[@realaurorien]

Leonid Pasechnik - Leader of the Luhansk People's Republic, nationality, Ukrainian, education, Donetsk High Military Political school. Alexander Zakcharenko was also a Ukrainian seperatist, leader of Donetsk, up untill his assasination in 2018, after which Denis Pushilin, also a Ukrainian, was appointed leader, graduated from Donbas National academy of civil engineering of architecture The irony of people such as you speaking about Russian trolls and propoganda, yet here you are speaking with little research Both Luhansk and Donetsk leaders are educated men, with Ukraine as their birthplace, resisting against a regime that decided to choose being a western puppet instead of a Russian ally back in 2013, they accepted a government that was put in power through a coup waving flags with SS symbols. Crimea is a large minority Ukrainian, but majority Russian, and the region was ceded to Ukraine by Khrushchev, who was a Ukrainian Soviet dictator, who never even graduated from 4th grade, his little proud spirit gave his home country a land dominated by Russians, and Russia took it back.

[@cinnamonstar808]

NO ONE HAS DECLARED THIS A WAR. this is not war

[@ericvandet8517]

@@cinnamonstar808 Don't have to "declare" a war to have one - just have to invade another country. Only a Spy would call it a "special Military Operation" - if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is still a duck, no matter what you call it.

[@tesodjukic4377]

There are russians living in ukraine 10milions of them and they not like curent ukrainian government

[@fabrizioart1928]

@@cinnamonstar808 no murder trial is officially happening, therefore the dead guy with a dagger in their chest has not been murdered.

[@wlbichay]

Hello William, I truly enjoyed your detailed analysis of 10 ways to end the war between Russia and Ukraine! Good job! 🥳

[@fether666]

My favorite ending is the one where “Right Back Where We Started From” by Maxine Nightingale kicks on and everyone starts dancing, hugging, and rebuilding.

[@sorennilsson9742]

We do know that the attack on Kiev was an enormus failure. Leaving close to 60 working tanks and close to 100 working combat vehicles behind you thus giving the enemy more than they have lost throwing you out is a total faliur.

[@paulyoung4422]

You didn't mention Ukraine totally defeating Russia on the battlefield.

[@sinoroman]

because that's not a real scenario that can happen

[@paulyoung4422]

Have you included US inginuity , in this assesment.

[@littlebig3720]

@@sinoroman I mean ukraine is kinda winning rn

[@raptorsprod6957]

@@littlebig3720 no ukraine is not winning

[@littlebig3720]

@@raptorsprod6957 they kinda are. I wouldn't say either side is winning though.

[@gregdvorkin]

Gorbachev's "raise to power" has remote relation to Afghanistan. He was elected as Communist Party General Secretary in 1985 and USSR withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989. Certainly his attempts of political and economical reforms has something to do with Afghanistan, but not his election as a leader.

[@Perririri]

Gorbachev has the triple six mark of the beast!

[@faradayfilms3176]

@@Perririri based

[@alexanderfretheim5720]

I agree, although I would also say that the economic collapse that prevented the USSR from making a transition similar to China's under 邓小平 probably had everything to do with the economic cost of Afghanistan. The USSR actually was trying to do what Beijing did successfully from 1979 onwards, and Afghanistan + the Reagan-era arms race was most of what prevented a free market Soviet Union.

[@gregdvorkin]

@@alexanderfretheim5720 No. There are several layers of the issue, hard to list it all in the short comment. The primary reason Gorbachev started reforms is the fact that he realized that soviet style centrally planned economy is ineffective, not flexible and does not allow to keep up with growing consumer and military technology in the West. The primary concern was that industry as the whole is reluctant to pick up and implement innovations. He did not have intention to go to reforms Chinese style and he did not have support among his highest soviet officials. That is why he decided to start from political reforms because democracy did not contradict with Marxist theory. Market economy did contradict with it, he could not declare publicly that market is better than centralized planning until he would have new elected officials and kick out the "oldies". This is the primary reason for collapse because elections brought lots of people with lots of different views including separatists, nationalists, liberals, etc. When Gorbachev and his partners realized they would be probably better off if they would start reforms Chinese style from the beginning it was too late (I am not sure it was possible at all but it is another story). Afghanistan contributed to political failure showing that poor people abroad are not just do not want to implement soviet style socialism but also willing to fiercely fight against it. Internally it was embarrassment too. USSR lost about 13,000 people in Afghanistan (during 10 years of war), for 250 million population it was nothing. But the fact that government brought a war home while declaring to be peaceful, treating war veterans as annoying beggars, bringing home drug dealing, etc. - that was the blow in their face which they did not survive.

[@alexanderfretheim5720]

@@gregdvorkin The decision to reform had already been made in 1979 before Gorbachev came to power.

[@Samsteppedonnail]

may 16, NOTHING ENDED

[@gfrank8058]

You had mentioned a coux. However you missed, what would happen if Putiin died from health reasons. Or logistically if Russia depletes it's military equipment, and has no helicopters or aircraft, or tanks. And what will the surrounding countries do, with there sanctions against Russia. There are more scenarios.

[@feliciagaffney1998]

And if Russia runs out of soldiers... which I think it sounds like Russia is close to this depletion of equipment and manpower. And generals... Russia is losing what allies it thought it had. Ukraine is getting more military supplies from many countries. This is unsustainable for Russia.

[@warriorhudson2594]

Coup de tat

[@nanhinting7447]

Oh yes that's what the US had intended. They will fly in all their oil companies and start pumping out the oil and gas like no body business. From Russia, they hope to encircle China from the north. After conquering China, they will move westward and try to conquer India. There us no end to US hegemony. They don't know how to live in peace. All they care is their own interests and their Anglo Saxon Supremacy.

[@feliciagaffney1998]

@@nanhinting7447 the US doesn't need or want Russian oil, and we aren't randomly attacking the rest of the world.

[@sinoroman]

this is not "Putin's war", the war will still go on after Putin. Russia has too many military hardware assets, they'll be fine

[@judefrancois716]

"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it themselves."George Santayana

[@zenithdawn9646]

I think that since the scary Slavic bear has now proven to be a koala bear, some 10 year old girl will take it as a pet.

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

Victory day was not a major holiday until Pucin took power. In the USSR it was just a regular holiday not the flamboyant celebration it is now.

[@eduardpoliakov3738]

Also it was not celebrated with parades and stuff for 20 years after the war

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

@@eduardpoliakov3738 Jap.

[@jamescole1786]

6/18/22..much enjoy yur videos; no fluff, just right to main points with numerical priorities. Great research, maps, animated graphics..just a 1st rate presentation! Thx & carry on Sir!👍👍👍😊

[@johnbirk843]

The dictator's dilemma, or why dictators fear democracy? To explain what's going on in the Ukraine, there are proximate causes and there are ultimate causes and most of the news today is only covering proximate causes, hopefully the should elucidate what the underlying ultimate causes which are driving this conflict. The dictator's dilemma describes a conundrum for dictators. They they usually have to do unconscionable and illegal things to get into power, and once they're in power they must escalate the level of repression, jailing and outright murder or genocide to retain their power and wealth. If they ever lose power they will face trial resulting in jail or even execution. They even have to worry about neighboring countries becoming democratic, because if this occurs their own people will start desiring democracy, which presents a threat to the dictator, like for some served after the Arab spring and the uprising of the people's desires was met with a brutal response.p So the decision of a dictator can be viewed in the actions of a sociopath/psychopath, which often is "I will obfuscate, attempt, lie and attemt everything to delay, however once this fails it's 'if I'm going down I'm taking everybody with me". I believe the above dictator's dilemma describes what's going on with Putin in Russia and in other dictatorial and authoritarian ruled countries and represents a great danger peace in our world. Scientia Non Domus, (Knowledge has No Home) antiguajohn [e-mail]

[@SajjadAli-vj5nf]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/gmjYiXR-erhghMk

[@enriktigasna]

Good explanation, thank you

[@fjfj544]

The dictator's dilemma, or why do dictators fear democracy and inject the masses with poison, gene therapy?

[@MasterBot98]

And in that way Ukraine fights for the future of the world, however childishly it sounds. Plus there is a side that even if dictator is exceptionally competent at governing(which Putin is clearly not) finding a successor is no easy task,and if propaganda wasnt preparing citizens for it we can assume there is none for Putin.

[@wahyuindrasto]

On May 9th Putin WILL NOT declare an all out war on Ukraine but he WILL announce that use of tactical nuclear weapons a.k.a. as "mini nukes" (payload less than 100 kilo tons) will shortly commence in the military operations areas.

[@vadimromansky8235]

"celebration were muted under yeltsin administration" - it's wrong. It's yeltsin who started parades every year, not every 5 years like in soviet era. The more far from war - the more tremendous celebration is

[@skit_inventor]

I think they meant to say that Putin is the one who started those tremendous celebrations, with all the military bragging and flexing, who ultimately changed the narrative from condemnation of the concept of war to its glorification

[@imsomewhatcertain1024]

Now that it’s May 20, the Victory Day “Victory” is out of the question. It would be a miracle if Putin was removed from power.

[@antyspi4466]

The analysis is very much flawed: 1) Ukraine has officially stated that the war goal is to drive Russia out of Ukraine, including crimea, and the US and the UK have committed themselves to help Ukraine achieve exactly that. Russia can´t ced that, as little as it can allow Ukraine to join NATO. So there can´t be any frozen conflict, settlement or Russia calling it quits. 2) World War III doesn´t necessarily involve strategic nukes. NATO intervening in Ukraine already constitutes WW III without the need for the use of strategic nuclear weapons, though it might involve tactical nukes or chemical agents. The fear of MAD might even let this war get stuck at a conventional level. This combined with two big powers committed to opposite goals without an option to back away, makes WW III sadly the most likely option - not to say inevitable.

[@swerve9857]

More like your analysis is very flawed, the chronological order you put the events in are significantly circumstantial and the most pessimistic alternative. Based on how little the US intends to assist Ukraine, the likeliness we go to world war is minimal

[@badboje6040]

Officially stated war goals don't matter all that much in the end. Just because Ukraine says it intends to restore pre-2013 borders doesn't rule out a negotiated settlement. Of course it's going to strive for total victory, but that doesn't mean it won't eventually settle for less.

[@lovepeace9727]

Don't forget that Biden is in charge of USA's "red button" right now, and unlike Putin, this old man has some real problems with his mental health...

[@wallingnaga6563]

Iam sure this KZbin has no idea about Ukraine post 24th February 2022

[@a_r_t1217]

the goals of both countries may change, and Russia, like Ukraine, may be satisfied with the existing option, where the borders were before the war

[@namehidden8854]

I don't know why I thought this video would be any good. Listing 10 possibilities without giving any weight to favor one or the other is just vapid.

[@ouwle6618]

This feels like if Nile Red did videos about war

[@madeleineforster7746]

I was a teenager during the Cuban crisis in 1962 and there was a threat of world war 3 at the time. It seems as if we are at that same level again

[@dr.danielk.heinied.s.758]

I really do not see it, NATO is not the equal of Russia, America alone is more than Russia's Equal, and NATO without the US is more than the equal of Russia.

[@BleedingSnow]

The difference is, both the Soviets and the US were willing to make compromise to establish a deal to de-escelate back them, the Soviets pulled out of Cuba and US out of Turkey. Today, the US makes no such compromise, and as you can see in their NATO summits, military intervention globally & lack of diplomatic attempts with Russia, have set on a very different path. Russia, as of 2008, also doing so.

[@MisterBrausepulver]

No it's worse because no side is ready to make compromises this time. From russias point of view they are not fighting Ukraine. They are fighting the US and NATO.

[@BleedingSnow]

@TAWOG The Cold War technically never ended, the US still views Russia as the enemy, when the USSR collapsed in 1991, it was rather obvious the US still viewed and clearly treated Russia as a political opponent, so, COld War maybe ended, but the geopolitical war not, the game changed, no more conventional A vs B with tanks & aircraft. Now, you see proxy wars, like in Ukraine. WW3 started the moment WW2 ended, the only fools, are people who do not udnerstand all WWII ended, was conventional warfare as we approached a new era.

[@BleedingSnow]

@TAWOG Please explain then. What is illogical about history? I make those claims based on historical facts. It is a fact the USSR is no longer since 1991. It is a fact the US dropped the deals made aimed at global peace and instead increased nuclear amrs,expanded NATO & to Russias border at that. It is a fact that Russia has been attempting to find diplomatic solutions to this military alliance expandign since 1990's as seen almost every year at UN council, famously in Munich 2008when Putin even attended a NATO summit. It is a fact that the US and Russia view each other as political enemies looking at the blatant economical war they're engaged in. It is a fact the US has acted provocatively towards Russia such as their assistance in the coup in Ukraine in 2014. And it is a fact that Russia see's NATO on their border as a national security threat, as they invaded Georgia to prevent such and now Ukraine.

[@hockeyhacker97]

Honestly the most likely way it ends is simply economically, putting many if not all major countries into a depression. I mean honestly when was the last time a war was been ended via fighting then compare that to how many wars have ended via one side or the other ending the war due to it being no longer profitable to continue.

[@MasterBot98]

EU and USA have effectively infinite money...in a sense that they cannot run out not in a sense here have infinity of money ofc.

[@hockeyhacker97]

@@MasterBot98 Just because you can print "infinite" money doesn't mean anything, doing so just helps inflation raise at a quicker rate putting said locations into a depression, same reason why simply raising minimum wage doesn't help as much as people like to think because the money's numerical value doesn't mean all that much. Now what do I mean by that? Lets give two hypothetical situations where the average family income is let's just say double or triple that of minimum wage, doesn't really mater, heck we can say the average income is exactly minimum wage it makes zero difference and you will see why in a second. Lets now give two situations.. A) minimum/average income per hour is $10/hour and the cost of milk is $2.50 OR 15 minutes worth of average income work. B) minimum/average income per hour gets changed to $10,000,000,000,000/hour what does that do to the cost of milk, well the milk's value has not changed at all milk is still worth 15 minutes worth of average income work and as such said milk now costs $2,5000,000,000,000 for that same milk. In both A and B the milk costs exactly the same amount 15 minutes of average income work. The main issue with inflation is not the cost of the items themselves that for the most part except in very rare occasions tends to stay pretty neutral, the issue with inflation like that is how much it effects your savings if said savings isn't saved in a non monetary asset such as owning a home because those will increase in value roughly equal to the inflation even if a little bit behind, but your money savings losses value thus costing you money without you spending a dime. As such, while printing money can be part of a solution to getting the economy rebooted there are a LOT of other things that also have to happen to get properly rebooted because people who saved enough money the first 60 years of their life to be able to afford a comfortable retirement, all that money saved up now buys a lot less no longer allowing them to live a comfortable retirement because their money has been devalued. merely

[@MasterBot98]

@@hockeyhacker97 what I meant that it's not like they will hit a ceiling in a budget sooner then ceiling a production capacity or a political will or anything else

[@Markfr0mCanada]

It's interesting to see how this one has aged. So far it seems we went option four, the "Gamble for resurrection", and it's leading to an option 11 which really should have been here: A complete military defeat for Russia. Last time an expansionist tyrant wanted to conquer territory in Europe it took 6 years to bring him down, I don't think this one will last nearly as long.

[@LetsPlayArcanium]

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to ww3 I mean you would think world leaders don’t want to lose their country

[@SnailBeast]

Are you prepeared to catch nuclear missle with your mouth?

[@xbirds9187]

It would take forever for any of this to lead anywhere, so long that the results are completely unpredictable. The manpower required to push the russian army out of crimea, donetsk and lugansk would be gargantuan, just like the manpower required to take on the entire country for russians. Putin says that the goal is "complete denationalization" of ukraine, ukraine says that it will not accept any peace treaty until russians fully withdraw from the entire ukraine. This is a war of attrition

[@welldoneman]

Kinda funny to say, but dude, do you even understand what a civil war is? I have watched this video only to hear that a Russian-backed proxy war is in your opinion "civil", but let me explain, it is not. Fun fact, there would be nothing bigger than public protest ( yes, possible brutal as Maidan was) if there were no Russian insurgency, weapons, money in 2014 Donbas not to mention whole Russian army units "being lost during exercises". So my advice to all who haven't watched this video yet, don't, go read an article from a respected newspaper rather than this surficial video. The statement about the civil war is only one, but very important example of why you should listen to author of this video at least on this particular topic

[@tsugumorihoney2288]

У меня друг брал отпуск от армии в 2014 ездил на донбасс дикарем, так вот, единственное что он встретил это еще кучу таких же дикарей которые поехали в отпуск срубить бабла, официальной армии там не было, а друг себе за пару месяцев заработал на 911 порш и хату, и нарезал шоколадных ушей пару десятков

[@alexnosal2277]

I like the fact that you recognized that the U.S. negotiating a peace, is not an option.

[@steverennie5787]

Your scenario where you said "russia expects this" and "ukraine expects this".... The Ukraine has said over and over it will not even consider a settlement if Russia holds onto the Donbas AND the Crimea. Ukraine wants the Crimea back - and although it might take a long time, I think they can achieve it.

[@thekingofpayments]

Yes although it will be long difficult and cost them so many more lives this is their chance to finish it now or be doomed to have a war every couple of years...

[@yvandelessencelf5993]

Not Ukraine want Crimea back but USA want Crimea back. Ukraine is US puppet state.

[@subhankarbaral9236]

Crimea will never ever go back to Ukraine. First, majority of Crimeans are Russian speakers with fierce loyalty to Russia. Second, after Crimea was annexed, Ukraine cut off the canal supplies which caused severe water shortage until Russia invested millions to solve the problem by setting desalination plants at Crimean region of Black Sea, surely Moscow is not fool to let Crimea go. The moment Ukraine attacks Crimea, Russia will consider it as the invasion of its territory and I am surely telling that will definitely lead to WWIII with Putin dropping nukes over Kiev. Even Zelensky knows this, so he might push to capture Donbass but definitely will not set foot in Crimea.

[@steverennie5787]

@@subhankarbaral9236 America has begun to very recently supplying Ukraine with ADVANCED weaponry (not the usual Javelins and such) - high tech stuff. Russia is about to suffer huge set backs. And no, the demographics actually say Crimea is about 50-50 Russian supporters and Ukrainians. Zelensky has been on the record as saying that he will not stop until the entire Crimea AND Donbas are cleansed of Russian invaders. He also said that they will remove (think he meant deport) any Russian supporters that refuse to accept Ukrainian rule. And he is well within his rights to do so.

[@subhankarbaral9236]

@@steverennie5787 Well, that just will bring destruction to Kiev. That I can assure.

[@jimgraham6722]

The way things are, with russkies reliance on contract soldiers from central Asia, a slow bleed out seems likely. It will be painful for all concerned.

[@NinjaKiller1022]

Say, come Victory Day, Russia were to claim victory over Eastern and South Eastern Ukraine and start pulling their troops back… I‘m sure Ukraine won‘t stop fighting, and continue to do so to reclaim what is rightfully theirs. Either way, Russia will continue to suffer, and hopefully Ukraine can successfully shut off and trap the tens of thousands of Russian troops in and around Izyum.

[@langoyapamasimobanya4337]

I don't think if Russia can pull back his soldiers instated Russia will add more military to support those break away from Ukraine

[@lovepeace9727]

In reality, It's Ukraine's troops that are getting encircled right now in Donbass. At the start of this conflict, Ukraine had ~110 000 soldiers in Donbass and now, from estimates of USA's intelligence service, they have only ~50 000 there. It means that ~60 000 ukrainian soldiers were either killed, became POW's, deserted or retreated (unlikely).

[@bushnineleven375]

@@lovepeace9727 cope warriors I see. You see Vladimir, I really love BMP BBQ videos recorded from Bayraktars. Keep them orcs coming

[@brandulak]

@@lovepeace9727 lol. 110 000 soldiers estimated by who? By Russia? Just shows that you have no clue about how military works, if you believe this bullshit. 110k people is more than 150 Batallion Tactical groups. It's more than double(almost triple) of what's necessary to start an offensive on a whole Donbass line of contact. Gathering so much troops becomes counterproductive. Not to mention that Ukraine surely did not focus 2/3s of their pre-mobilization army on one direction in the light of Russia gathering almost 300k troops around Ukrainian borders.🤦🏻 The war would be over in a few days if this 110k bullshit was true. I guess Russia could've claimed that Ukraine gathered 100 million troops on Donbass and some dumbasses would still believe.

[@yuridzhigurdayev2000]

1. Блокада портов. 2. Голодомор 2.0. Вот и все. Зачем танки, когда можно перекрыть порты и уничтожить голодом ?

[@khada6226]

i think there will be a ceasefire agreement just like what happened in 2014 but Russia will be able to keep the lands they took on the south not recognized by most nations

[@TheIvasyl]

and russia will keep violating ceasefire like they always did after Minsk. Ukraine won't step on the same rake again

[@vigicraft_omc_9585]

At this point, making a deal with Russia, is like making a deal with the devil. The only deal they should make is for Russia to return all territories of Ukraine and the removal of Putin.

[@alexanderfretheim5720]

I think Zelensky is too smart for that.

[@adarshramanujadasan]

The Russia I once loved is no more. Rest In Peace Glorious Russia. (26th December 1991 - 24th February 2022) 💔

[@markwiering]

Russia had terrible leadership in the 1990's, resulting in crime, mafia, massive corruption and poverty. In 1999, however, Russia started to slowly become a great nation again. The Russian special forces taking a military base in Serbia's province Kosovo marked the beginning of a new era. Ever since then, Russia's leadership started honouring the Soviet past instead of ridiculing it, which in term resulted in a chain of positive changes, like industrialisation, patriotic projects, the restoration of Soyuzmultfilm etcetera. 🙂

[@МаксВолк-р3д]

@@markwiering My poor country, if we had been stronger in 1999💔

[@howardlandman6121]

You left out "utter annihilation of Russian miltary capability". This happens if Russia keeps losing but keeps fighting anyway.

[@MeanderingMikesManCave]

^ this. Russia will bleed itself dry if the West can keep feeding Ukraine an increasingly sophisticated stream of weapon systems. Russia must withdraw and make concessions, or it will collapse within a year or two.

[@alexanderfretheim5720]

Which would then be followed, inevitably, by a Ukrainian invasion of Russia, including taking from Russia all their Black Sea coast and the strategic Don-Volga ship canal.

[@thecoolone777]

“Gambling for resurrection” sounds a lot like the sunk cost fallacy

[@vandarkholme7558]

I find it kinda funny that he's calling the 2014 invasion a "civil war"

[@thekaizer666]

this war started since 2014. Ukraine has murdered over 14,000+ babies, children, women, elderly, and civilians. THEIR OWN civilians. ukrainian civilians. . 40+ children, women, civilians, were BURNED ALIVE in odessa, Ukraine repeatedly defies the Minsk Peace Agreements which they coauthored, agreed to, and signed. . Amerikkkan and Britshit Special Forces Command(s) had sent thousands of their military trainers (majors, colonels, brigadier generals) to train Nazi Azov (A3OB) Battalion (part of Ukr official army) since 2013, and have sent them funds upwards of $5 Billion, excluding masses of weapons and ammunition since 2013. Victoria Nuland, US under-secretary of state, headed these operations, rigged the elections, and orchestrated and financed the 2014 EuroMaidan coup to install corrupt US-financed puppets and overthrow Pres. Yanukovych, whom (although was also corrupt) was at least somewhat level-headed and kept playing both sides (tried to gain favours from both West and Russia). . the literal Nazis (Azov, tornado, c14, Svoboda, AIDAR, right sector, all part of the Ukraine army) literally bombs and shoots rockets, grenades, missiles, cluster bombs (war crime), artillery shelled, RANDOM HOUSES day and night. on the warheads they write "BEST WISHES TO THE KIDS". . they RAPE AND TORTURE CHILDREN, and nail dead and alive children to random house doors. . they are Nazis. they wear purely Nazi tattoos, patches, logos, sigils, flags, slogans,and regular held Nazi Marches and torchlight ceremonies throughout the cities, and recruit children into Nazi training camps. . Pres. Poroshenko and Zeclownsky gloated in televized speeches "those cockroaches can't even go to school because they're hiding in basements (due to our bombs)!". . all these facts are VERY WIDELY DOCUMENTED, even by western mainstream media such as CNN, CNBC, Fox, AFP, Reuters, etc. google "tornado Ukraine court case". . where was your outrage then? . I REPEAT: all these facts are VERY WIDELY DOCUMENTED, even by western mainstream media such as CNN, CNBC, Fox, AFP, Reuters, etc. google "tornado Ukraine court case". . where was your outrage then?

[@freemindrebel]

What wrong? Yeah, Russia take Criema. But then was hybrid civil war

[@ericvandet8517]

@@freemindrebel Not really - the number of people in the Dombass that wanted separation was minuscule - but with lots of russian support and "little green men" they were able to get enough of a start that Putin could use the russian army to keep the Ukrainians from taking it all back - artillery used from Russia, russian army troops with geotags on their phone deep in Ukraine proved it. It wasn't a real civil war, just a camouflaged russian take over.

[@sinoroman]

funny that ppl call the 2014 coup in ukraine a "protest"

[@GotoHere]

Covering for foreign policy failures Biden and Obama.

[@JustinCase-ey4ok]

There is a factor regarding Russia alot of people forget I think. When the USSR collapsed Russia's economy collapsed as well. Russia was forced to sell off a huge percentage of Thier arms stockpile to basically keep the lights on. The liquidation included Thier nuclear weapons as well, it was so well known it became something of a trope. The idea they have somehow managed to rebuild Thier stock of nukes to pre collapse levels would be nearly impossible. If you factor in the performance of Thier military and the abysmal upkeep of equipment the possibility that Russia no longer has a functional nuclear weapon at it's disposal is atleast a possibility.

[@estiar1956]

It only takes one to kill a hundred thousand though.Could there really be zero nukes operational? Probably not. Some of their cruise missiles work, so it's not a stretch to say the weapons in Kaliningrad still work

[@JustinCase-ey4ok]

@@estiar1956 Yes, they had a test month before last. It was more a question of warheads. That being said it's nothing that could be gambled on of course. It has to be assumed they have all the weapons they claimed to the IAEA.

[@МаксВолк-р3д]

Russia ranks 5th in terms of spending on armaments, and do you believe that we have missiles that were lying somewhere 40-50 years ago, and that's all there is?

[@JustinCase-ey4ok]

@@МаксВолк-р3д Russia did rank 5th on spending that is true. The only problem is that's outdated information. That's information based on a study compiled by the UN and the IAEA between 90 and 95. Beyond that study countries basically have to take each other's word for it. We also know that when the Soviet Union collapsed, they liquidated over 95% of Thier military stockpile. This was the most heavily scrutinized sale in history due to a concern some terrorist group could end up with a high yield nuke. Nobody, including Russia wanted to see some doomsday cult or hyper extremest terrorist end up with a weapon of mass destruction. So, if you want to trust that Russia was 5th in military spending, than you have to trust the rest of the information as it all came from the same source.

[@МаксВолк-р3д]

@@thegreatestdane8978 Even half of nuclear is more than the whole world in total, if you exclude the USA, so relax, there's enough for you

[@larsrons7937]

_Currently we are on day 156 of Russia's "7 day special limited military operation" in Ukraine_ (thanks, Jake Broe) Putin did _NOT_ stop the yet Russia's war effort is going _NOWHERE._ Since the 9th may "Victory Day" Russia has captured additionally 0,3 % of Ukraine's territory. That's 70 years to take the rest of country, or decades to achieve just more likely goals. While we can't know how the situation will end, it's obvious that Russia and Putin can't "win" this war.

[@chimpinaneckbrace]

“The system had mistaken a high altitude cloud for a nuclear weapon.” You think maybe we should abolish all nukes so we don’t annihilate our species for some unbelivably stupid reason?

[@lindseythornton3039]

Agree 👍 I think it's in everyone's best interest to abolish nuclear weapons. If not it's inevitable that many lives will be lost if not humanity entirely. We should focus on saving earth and not destroying it.

[@ericfleet9602]

Sounds nice, but can you tell me how you get Russia to abolish nukes? Or do you think the US abolished nukes first and Russia, China and North Korea suddenly go "Gosh, the US is so nice, let's do the same"?

[@lebadboii6804]

Well sadly humans are destructive and petty

[@lovepeace9727]

Nukes - the only thing that is REALLY forcing peace in this world. We'd be in WW3 already if there were no nuclear missiles.

[@seandavies5130]

@@ericfleet9602 well, if our species can't solve this problem in one way or another, then something cataclysmic will always be in the "when, not if" column

[@allanvodicka8352]

This isn’t a civil war. It was war artificially created by Russia in 2014.

[@sinoroman]

because of the 2014 coup in ukraine

[@velvet2520]

6:44 how close this is to the actual front line

[@hunterpayne6167]

Two things: 1) What makes you think the Russian military won't just collapse? They are only a month or two away from that possibility now. It isn't at all clear that Russia can continue this level of intensity for longer than a couple of months. The question is can the Ukrainians. And 2) If Russia has any benefit from this invasion, they will do it again in the near future. This is the flaw in most political scientists thinking on this war. Unless Russia loses, there will be a repeat in 5 years in a different eastern European country. Any political settlement that gives Russia anything positive will lead to this result. It is a great mistake by politicians and diplomats to think otherwise. You aren't dealing with the USSR; you are dealing with a quasi-criminal regime that will lie to your face in ways that make even politicians blush. To act like Russia will honor their agreement is the kind of naivete usually reserved for small children. If you want to know why military folks don't respect diplomats, this is why. Some wars can't end with agreements, this is one of them. PS This isn't a civil war and any attempt to model it as such will fail to yield useful results.

[@MrBassmann15]

I think Afghanization is the collapse of the Russian military.

[@stralegaming2597]

Simply stated Ukraine claimed Russian military dosent have ammo nor MRE for 3 days more of the war One month ago.. I think it's best to judge the war after its over because looking at one side is never gonna result in correct assumptions

[@LutherusPXCs]

Russia haven't mobilized its industry or population behind the war effort.

[@sinoroman]

USSR does not equate to Russia. Russia's military won't collapse, they still have the quantity in all aspects

[@dcbradfo657]

@@sinoroman That military is going to be needed elsewhere, such as the border of Finland when it joins NATO. Not to mention all over the country as internal saboteurs are already at work. They have quantity to be sure, but they have vast lands to protect. So it balances out in some ways.

[@TotalWarTotalMobilization]

Western media tells us to cry for ukarinans but turned a blind eye to laos Syria iraq and cambodia

[@Woodex80085]

watch this at 1.25x speed. It wont take forever anymore

[@williamjameshoffer4405]

I always find political science analysts' take on events so fascinating. The actual people, events, and realities disappear into a fog of categories and theories. My Top Ten: 1) Another Afghanistan, 2) Negotiated settlement - status quo ante bellum Minsk Protocols, 3) Ukraine survives as a client state, 4) Ukraine is incorporated into Russia, 5) Ukraine is partitioned into its pre-World War II boundaries, 6) Russia obliterates Ukraine as an entity, 7) Russian Civil War (with nukes), 8) WWIII, 9) Ukraine is neutral and intact, 10) Putin dies of thyroid/blood cancer and Medvedev negotiates.

[@DeadJDona]

0) russia is disassbled to independent countries

[@n.m.3322]

I think it will end up like this: 1. Russia makes a general mobilization on 9 May 2. many Russians refuse and there are more and more protests in Russia 3. training of reservists will take years 4. nato sends more weapons and breaks all trade relations with Russia as a reaction to the general mobilization 5. Russia continues to advance. Shortly to the front of Kiev. 6. Russia's economy collapses in the fall of 2022 and more and more Russians die. 7. Ukraine and Russia end up agreeing on the independence of the Donbass and Crimea. 8. Russia collapses after a few years and splits up

[@Unhinged_rant_starts_here]

I think the russia collapse scenario can be a realistic scenerio due to it being a federation of multiple republics and maybe an increase in separatism in Russia due to lack of faith.

[@smilinggeneral8870]

Change point 8: Russia is greatly changing its political structure after putin is removed to avoid similar case from happening again.

[@bigbrother7604]

I doubt this... Strongly.

[@mihailos8701]

As Ukrainian I can say that agreeing on Donbass independency is almost impossible to happen

[@rsKayiira]

@@mihailos8701 slava Ukraini

[@srj607able]

Thank you. Also, almost no adds on your vids. This is amazing

[@user-mw1eb7wx2p]

"Civil War" in Ukraine from 2014? What are you talking about if you don't know the topic?

[@thepoet9253]

Pretty sure he's referring to the insurrection that occurred in which an unpopular president was tossed out in Ukraine and Zelenskyy was elected in after.

[@user-mw1eb7wx2p]

@@thepoet9253 That's Maidan, not "civil war".

[@zaishlyidinister473]

@@thepoet9253 also after the maidan zelensky wasn't the president,zelensky was elected in 2019. While the president in 2014-2019 was Petro Poroshenko

[@Husar1980]

Most important and the most possible scenario which have not been present here: Ukrainian complete victory and restoration. Its borders from 2014 ( Crimea Penisula included) . Russia is finished by Chineese/Japaneese actions (Japan is still at war with Russia at the present day) and will dissapear from the map in 10 years. You forgot about most important issue:that Since 24th of February Russia is no longer a chess player on the. chessboard but merely a chessman. So any possible outcome of this war won"t be preffered one by russian federation

[@SajjadAli-vj5nf]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/gmjYiXR-erhghMk

[@ЛарисаАхунова-щ2у]

Вы для начала Крым спросите ,хотят ли они в состав Украины.Крымчане больше всего боятся вернуться в украину.Донбас кстати тоже.

[@somedude0921]

@@ЛарисаАхунова-щ2у west plays chess, Russia plays checkers

[@WorldTravelerCA]

I agree with you 🙏🤞

[@kkrr8894]

Is this on what Ukranians spend those 33 billion $ Biden gave them? On third rate shitty bots?

[@AngryBoozer]

I know how it “could” end. I’m more interested in how likely any of these events would happen.

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

Zaļenskis death would mean nothing. The Ukrainas nation is at war the death of no individual will force them to make peace.

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

In WW2 Germany fought till the bitter end because the Allies wanted to destroy Germany, surrender was not an option.

[@DAndyLord]

Well, yeah, but the Allies had a pretty good reason for wanting to destroy Germany. All the atrocities, and such.

[@redwoodcoast]

Such ignorance. Germany's unconditional surrender is unrelated to fighting "till the bitter end". Don't you know the difference between fighting and surrendering? Or are you a Nazi sympathizer seeking to rewrite history?

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

@@DAndyLord "Well, yeah, but the Allies had a pretty good reason for wanting to destroy Germany." Nop. There was no good side and bad side to that war all where bad sides. "All the atrocities, and such." You mean the 16 million dead civilians by the Eastern Allies before the war even started?

[@silverfletcher2560]

The war can end only with a victory or surrender. No alternative!

[@Kain_V]

Was there an option in the video where Russia falls apart in the same way as the USSR collapsed? There is no chance of a civil war in Ukraine, in 2014 Russia created an artificial "civil" war, and when Ukraine almost liberated its territory from Russian separatists, Russia sent reinforcements and stopped Ukrainian troops. After that, Ukraine agreed to a conditional truce, thinking what to do with the Russian army, which stands behind the artificially created separatists.

[@thomaslacornette1282]

Artificial civil war really? Before war there is 8 millions ethnic Russians citizen of Ukraine, parts of the Ukrainian army have quit to form the separatist. Is that imaginary world to you? you still have some videos of this just here on youtube or the violent fights between pro Russian and Ultra nationalist Ukrainian in Odessa in 2014 (some pro Russian ended burned alive in a building...) just prove even in Odessa there was pro Russian Ukrainians, same thing: video of this just here on youtube.

[@feliciagaffney1998]

I saw another video about China not helping Russia currently and the possibility that China may take advantage of this time to try and annex part of eastern Russia. Then Putin has 2 wars on 2 fronts. When he's already running out of equipment and soldiers in the war he started.

[@LutherusPXCs]

@@feliciagaffney1998 Putin would nuke china before that takes place

[@СережаБурлаку]

Мне лень писать по-английски , переведешь Я с украины и "русская армия" на Донбассе появилась после того как по городам начали вестись украинские обыстрелы. Но кого ебет, вам ж про это не рассказывают

[@dolantho]

@@СережаБурлаку explain more please

[@6222999]

"The system had mistaken a high altitude cloud for a nuclear weapon??" Wow, what an incredible level of sophistication!! What's next? Maybe some poor high-flying duck or goose gets toasted by one of these sophisticated warheads? Seems Russian clumsiness is scarier than it's actual intentions.

[@BuranStrannik]

as in that old anecdote, russian nanotechnology is the largest nanotechnology in the world!

[@МаксВолк-р3д]

@@BuranStrannik "Ah. Humor based on my pain."

[@maphuthibillphahledi9668]

YOU ALWAYS GIVE US THRILLING EXPLANATION. KEEP UP AND BE BLESSED. THE KNOWLEDGE AND THE INSIGHT YOU HAVE MAKE IT EASY FOR MANY TO HAVE A CLOSER GLIMPSE INTO THE CONFLICT PUTIN HAS INITIATED.

[@vladyslavmyrhorod9987]

Author shows complete ignorance in the subject of this war by calling the previous stage of the same war as “civil war” and after author said that Ukraine didn’t fall because of “ Russian poor logistics” a the only reason I quit watching it…

[@blargvlarg1390]

Was already shaking my head at the start. A country with a professional army that is armed and supported by the West and has managed to hold and even regain ground isn't going to fall into some Afghanistan conflict. Skipped forward and nope-d out when the author claimed that Russia could just "declare victory" and pull out, reducing the conflict to "2021 levels of intensity". Bullshit! The separatists are poorly trained and armed with Mosin-Nagants for fuck's sake. Without Russian soldiers around, the Ukrainians are just going to steamroll them and their "republics" will cease to exist.

[@wallingnaga6563]

Agree this video is cringy as Fcuk

[@fjfj544]

Apart from crazy left-wingers Americans are hardcore patriots exactly as Ukrainians or Russians, however the line between Nationalism and Zionism is thin. Thousands of Ukrainians have died in open trenches for Zionism. Similarly Americans have died in many wars exclusively for Jewish interests. ZOG-US is interested in Ukrainian borders but uninterested in its own border with Mexico, sounds paradoxical until the Zio component is taken into account.

[@alexanderfretheim5720]

Yeah someone should mention too how the age of the tank is officially over. The effective use of missiles by Ukrainian infantry to turn tanks in to brazen bulls for poor wee Russian boys is a military transformation equal to the USS Monitor and CSS Merrimack dueling it out in Chesapeake Bay.

[@MichaelSidneyTimpson]

WWIII has at least two (if not more) scenarios: one which involves nukes and one which does not. Also there's a Hot and Cold version as well.

[@Carl-Gauss]

1:02 Afghan war is only a minor reason for Perestroika, there’re only 15k casualties (even less in 1985 cause the worst year was 1986) which is negligible for a giant autocracy SU was. Actual main ones were: ~ structural crisis of Soviet Union: in late Brezhnev years economic growth and innovations seriously slowed down and the life expectancy actually started to decrease despite things looking good on the surface; ~ oil prices had plummeted: this explains huge number of things in Russian history i. e. why 2000s were so much better than the 1990s or why is Russia still retains some small economic hopes; ~ generations have changed and people had generally stopped believing in Soviet project. Andropov anti-corruption investigations such as Cotton case had shattered the belief in communist ideology even further.

[@petersmythe6462]

Nepal's rebels laid down their arms after there was a democratic revolution, in exchange for extensive concessions, and ended up with almost the entire government communist parties or left nationalist parties. Arguably the rebels won. And managed to create a multiparty communist-dominated government through a completely unique process (though one still involving revolution).

[@js46644]

11: Puppy diplomacy I send each Putin and Zelenskyy a puppy with the other's return address on it. So heartened by receiving a puppy from their enemy, the two agree to call the whole thing off. Now, does anyone have their addresses?

[@WOTArtyNoobs]

One of the outcomes you did not consider (at the time) was the likely results of the losses of mobilized men combined with the failure of key industries and a resulting rebellion among the various Oblasts and districts. Putin originally stated that the Mobilization would be not more than 300,000 whilst most ordinary Russians (commenters on YT) took this to mean between 1.1 and 1.2 million with the first 300k within a month and then subsequent batches later on. In fact it is much worse than that. What's happened is that the majority of the oblasts and districts far away from Moscow and St Petersburg have suffered extreme mobilization. Often forced with people being picked up at their household door without any warning. Then there are 'press-gangs' roaming the streets and seizing young men at random. The homeless and the drunk, criminals and even the insane are being picked up because they know that these are just cannon fodder and won't last a week or two. The recruiters are doing this to save the communities money. They don't have to pay benefits to the unemployed and to keep the criminals in prison. The homeless are no longer littering the streets and the insane will only be missed by their family and not the doctors and nurses in hospital. The mobilization staff are enthusiastic and they are also being supported by those that feel it is the patriotic duty of these men to fight. The problem is that they are also turning up at the workplace of some men to take them off the production lines and this cuts production for those companies that are still working. Many of these men are married with children and they depend on these men for support. This could cause massive problems for these families when the men are killed. Those that refuse to fight or leave are treated as traitors and some are even evicted from their homes. Sanctions have reduced the ability of Russia to manufacture some key components that are absolutely necessary for Russia to operate. Ball bearings is one key example. Globalization meant that Russia relied on western workers that were operating western machines manufacturing the bearings used in railway wagons. When these men left Russia on orders from their western companies, they took with them the Russian men with the skills to continue operation of the machines. They also sabotaged the machines with 'updates' which meant that Russia cannot service and repair their railway wagons and this is having a catastrophic effect on the number of railway wagons that can function. More than 30% of Russian rail wagons of all types are now waiting in stockyards to be serviced. They cannot be used without servicing as they would fall apart causing train crashes and ultimately that would be more dangerous by blocking rail lines. Russian is a big country and relies on their railways. Not just to move goods and food, but also their Army. It's a major part of their defense network. A significant amount of the Russian forces are dedicated to moving equipment and logistics. Without the railroads, the troops have no ammo, no food and no water. Without the railways, the Oblasts that are not agricultural would run out of food. Especially the big cities like Moscow and St Petersburg. If the food runs out, you could have rebellion. There's a well known saying which suggests that you are only ever 2 meals away from a Revolution. It's not quite that quick, but within a few weeks, people start leaving cities if there's no food and they shut down or riot. This means that with +30% of his railways out of action and another 30% by Christmas or Spring, it is possible that Putin will get desperate around February or March next year. Some of the Oblasts have been stockpiling food in anticipation of this and it won't be long before the public start to notice industries shutting down. Even if the Russians recruit vast numbers of women to replace the men, they will still find it next to impossible to replace the key sanctioned items and that will mean that Russia is on the brink of economic collapse. Some of the Oblasts may even seek food aid from other states such as China or the former Soviet states and talk about seceding from Russia and joining them instead. If the Russians lose as many as a million men during the winter, to both the weather and surrender, then with the Railways closing down, Putin will have to withdraw troops. He may even have to pull back vast amounts of the troops to Crimea and back to the pre-24th February lines, just to stop a total collapse and I can see him abandoning the Donbas and blaming them for the collapse, as well as NATO for aiding Ukraine. Russia will be on the verge of collapse as a federated state and it will be difficult for Putin to maintain control. The most I can see this war lasting is to summer of next year when Russia has extremely low ammo and either uses a demonstration tactical nuke to make everyone negotiate or stages a nuclear meltdown at one of the power plants to blame the Ukrainians. Putin will be desperate by then and that's when a coup would succeed. I doubt that the war would last longer than 2 years, but Ukraine will continue to get aid from the US, Britain and most of NATO.

[@omprakashmahanta5547]

Guys we will only truly know about the success or loss of Russian war after the war. Same way Iraq war was a success in the beginning but after the war turned out to be a disaster.

[@akhsdenlew1861]

it was not a disaster.. lol also it was not a "real- Clear" war like this one. It was guerila fighting between terrosists hidding under the sand lol. The americans were completly superior in battle. The troops were simply removed from iraq after like what? 20 years? They shouldn't stay there for 20 years anyway. Also, iraq saw the biggest growth under americas occupation.. school was working, women were a thing... As soon as america goes home, iraq returned to the middle ages. So if they want to stay like that.. just let them.. lol

[@Nitro1000]

You missed Total Russian defeat. With Russia losing military equipment that I cannot replace and troops at levels that far exceeded what they lost in Afghanistan over the course of years The likelihood that the Russian military completely collapses is a growing possibility

[@tetraxis3011]

If you stopped listening to propaganda, you would know Russia has lost far less then the West claims, and Russia can easily replace lots equipment.

[@Nitro1000]

@@tetraxis3011 I don’t listen to propaganda that’s why I know Russia can’t replace all of this equipment.

[@ratatatuff]

@@tetraxis3011 Hello dear victim of Russian propaganda. Let me guess, you've read this on Telegram? 😂

[@tetraxis3011]

@@ratatatuff No, I have used common sense to reach this conclusion. But to you people anyone who doesn’t support your narrative is a Russian bot or listes to Russian propaganda.

[@ratatatuff]

@@tetraxis3011 Ah, and your "common sense" is a reliable fact? 🤣 Did you smell the numbers of fallen russian soldiers and their destroyed equipment from afar while sitting on your sofa? You're ridiculous.

[@oke497]

Amazing video

[@jansafar3540]

If Russia withdrew the rebels would be done for, imo they'd leave for Russia with the Russian army, they have neither the arms nor the men to survive an attack by Ukraines new army.

[@zurdochileno3230]

They've been fighting the Ukrainian Army for the past 8 years, held their ground against Azov and other hardline batallions, i thinks its fair to say they'd continue the fight, specially with how much ammo/weapons they've captured in their latest offensives, that includes a lot of NLAWS/Panzerfaust-3/Javelins

[@jansafar3540]

@@zurdochileno3230 the advance in donbas has been the slowest of all russian fronts and all the equipment from the west hasnt even reached the donbas front yet + apart from mariupol there havent been any major surrenders by the ukrainians yet meaning they have not captured any significant amounts of equipment, what's more they've suffered catastrophic losses due to being used as meatshields by the russians as well as having shit training. One of the separatist leaders even admitted THEY WOULDVE LOST IN 2014 without the russian help, they werent defeated because ukraine was afraid of attack by russia and after that there was a hope of a negotiated settlement, zelensky even ran on a neutral stance towards russia. Learn more before you post comments like this.

[@amadd5641]

Murphy's law states "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong." I don't want to be a pessimist but I can't help thinking that given enough time a full scale nuclear war will eventually happen as long as there are the weapons available.

[@frederick7128]

How does it work if putin fires nukes to uk and usa does reply nukes automatically get triggered back to russia

[@zipperpillow]

Sounds good.

[@GotoHere]

With incompetent foreign policy failure Biden. Nuclear war is inevitable. Biden’s has failed at every thing he’s been involved in for 49 years.

[@lukakrdzic1337]

@@frederick7128 all of NATO would attack so either way its GGs for everyone

[@maya07_11]

idk man why would Putin just start a ww3? it's not even profitable for him to do that

[@TabbycatFiggy]

YES I wish it could end cause my family is in,ukraine but mommy and granny are here grandpa died when I was only 3

[@Dreamlifemotivationofficial]

The Ukrainian soldier who returned from the hospital to fight for his country's future is a true hero.

[@LKL9775]

Rip in advance

[@wedenganey8091]

This dude straight up wants to die for nothing

[@hantms]

Another possibility: Ukraine or even Poland escalates it. Ukraine and Poland are likely not thinking very highly of Belarus right now, and there may come a moment that it's payback time. Or Ukraine gets stronger and stronger and takes back Crimea. Putin's house of cards may well come down at that point, and/or he does something desperate.

[@emilitious7886]

😂😂 all of you are clowns.

[@apollo1337x]

Something desperate = Use of nuclear weapons

[@georgeousthegorgeous]

Try taking back Crimea and you get nuked. No tolerance for it

[@archie2038]

10:35-12:08 I hope he knows better now after one year. This chapter of the video is It was never a civil war, it war Russian invasion from the beginning in 2014...

[@mercedes1254]

How about a Ukranian victory? With the moral and performance of the Russian army being what it has shown itself to be, that is not something to overlook.

[@guitarhausdoesntknowwhatac3285]

This is pretty much the inevitable concluion to all of this; russiaa's military shot it's load trying to take kyiv and simply doesn't have the manpower, economy or logistics to make this work as a long term conflict; like the losses they are suffering are basically unrecoverable in any sort of a real time frame while Ukraine basically has most of europe and NATO supplying them with the equipment to shove russia out, and given how much putin has pissed them off that situation is unlikely to change any time soon.

[@cinnamonstar808]

its not a war

[@artelislt]

@@cinnamonstar808 Yeah, just ,,special military operation" Xddddd

[@mercedes1254]

@@cinnamonstar808 What would you call it then?

[@andarara-c1p]

@@mercedes1254 A hecking war

[@Misserbi]

I am convinced the upper class individuals were part of the plan for invasion of Circassia (or technically Kabarda at that time) in 1763 in order to quell civil strife in the region and Russia's stamp there is as liberators and protectors and not aggressors and occupiers. What is strange is Circassia was sacked, does not exist today, had lost 1.8 million souls in the process, and is now Russified at every level. Was a civil war going to be that devestating?

[@fjfj544]

Apart from crazy left-wingers Americans are hardcore patriots exactly as Ukrainians or Russians, however the line between Nationalism and Zionism is thin. Thousands of Ukrainians have died in open trenches for Zionism. Similarly Americans have died in many wars exclusively for Jewish interests. ZOG-US is interested in Ukrainian borders but uninterested in its own border with Mexico, sounds paradoxical until the Zio component is taken into account.

[@Misserbi]

@@fjfj544 any fanatical organization funded to the hilt will allow the feuds within nations to extend outward. As for Circassia, I think, there is a possibility that outsiders are controlling events inside. The Chechens in Chechnya are an example of the Islamic ironies of killing and making it on time for a prayer in the mosque. It is possible Zionists have some say in the affairs of nations but they rarely get traced directly to the violations because of the history surrounding Jewish meddling. The Caucasus was once a haven for Jews during the Khazarian days but that was a political move only. Maybe this is the lasting backlash?

[@stuartblittley3531]

you just jinxed the world in ten different ways. good going, champ.

[@dr.danielk.heinied.s.758]

I thought your "Options" were inventive but unrealistic. They seem to assume a rational leader in Russia, and there is not. It also assumes that NATO would allow Ukraine to be defeated. It really has been signaling that it cannot. The fact that Finns and Swedes are now clamoring to Join NATO after 70 years of refusing, is telling. Russian failures on the battlefield and the stiffening resolve of NATO countries to supply Ukraine show ONE MORE OPTION, Ironically, you did not mention the possibility the Ukraine defeats Russia. I beta video like this would have predicted the eventual win of the British Empire over the American Colonies, a much longer shot than a Ukrainian win.

[@cromlaughsatyourfourwinds8333]

And Biden IS rational?

[@PrimericanIdol]

The American colonies were nowhere near as important to the UK as Ukraine is to Russia. A closer equivalent would be if Scotland had attempted to break away via war of independence.

[@Draconianoverlord55]

Do you really believe Ukraine can win? Like for real, if Russia is having such a bad time from the beginning why are they still advancing and doing whatever they want?

[@theamazinghippopotomonstro9942]

NATO can only do so much to help ukraine without starting WW3. There is no guarantee ukraine will win

[@ericvandet8517]

@@Draconianoverlord55 because they're not...

[@TheTheshadow32]

No word on the logistical limits of waging such a present day intensive war… How many rounds of cruise missiles and Aie are left after say 3 months? How many operational tanks are still available to gain ground? And what about the clearing of the resistance in each city in such a vast hostile country? What about waging war with a GNP that is smaller than 2 minor western countries like Belgium and the Netherlands combined. In my view mobilisation does not solve the hardware limits for present day wars. Economics are and always were the basics of warfare. With all respect, this excellent video does not look into these limits. I think both sides will agree on a peace treaty to lick their wounds sooner than most analists may think. The economic sanctions will be more and more important and will speed up negotiations… unless Putin is put aside sooner. So my guess : 50% chance of Putin put out of power within the Kremlin, 25% regime change in Moscow, 15% a negociated peace for 5 years, 5% win for Putin and 1% limited nucleair war wich will be the end for the Kremlin and very serious trouble for the European continent. In the end thousands if not a million people will die because of this conflict of an ex KGB guy who simply hang on far too long on power and nostalgic crazy ideas…

[@XOPOIIIO]

The holiday wasn't muted under Yeltsin.

[@saynotowar8418]

Victory 🇺🇦💯

[@IshijimaKairo]

I choose to give war a chance.

[@pedrosura]

Putin: We won in a landslide Trump: I won in a landslide

[@VidarW]

11. Chuck Norris simply says STOP!!

[@genegreear4183]

With the way Russia has killed civilian populations in Ukraine. I don’t see them negotiating with Russia except for Russia to just give up and get out of Ukraine. Or Putin goes into exile. You made ten really good points.

[@nalexks]

#11- on May nine Russia formally declares war to Ukraine with formally giving warning to countries who supply Ukraine with weapons that it will consider them in a state of war with Russia. And then I believe we are very closely looking at number 10 on your list again

[@raishaferreira8099]

Salmo 37 for Russian!

[@joenewmeyer8358]

Get the hotdogs and marshmallows ready, might get pretty warm.

[@janestones323]

@@joenewmeyer8358 Morons! The innocent civilians are dying and it is a game for you!😡 What did YOU do to stop this disaster!?

[@MrBassmann15]

@@joenewmeyer8358 Then cold.

[@fadzanatas6098]

@@MrBassmann15 Don't worry. Most of us wont be around for the cold.

[@grigoriipodoksik2622]

Weird that none of these scenarios include Putin's attack being completely defeated and Ukraine returning to 2021 or even 2013 boundaries

[@xxxxx3626]

Cause Russia can not lose that much unless Nato comes in and if that happens ww3 is coming and every county will have to pick side and that means nuclear war and end of most life on the planet

[@grigoriipodoksik2622]

@@xxxxx3626 Russia has suffered epic defeats so far. Ukraine successfully fought it's way back to the Russian border on the Northeast direction. Ukrainian army has more tanks than when it started (not even including the ones provided by the West), which is mind-blowing. Russia is incapable of producing more equipment, on the other end, and they don't seem to get any support from the outside either. Ukraine is getting more weapons every week. Russian advantage in the number of bodies they can send as cannon fodder is also not as big of a difference because they don't seem to want to announce mobilization. These people will also be untrained, unlike Ukrainians that already had experience in combat. Technically, Ukrainian army is bigger due to mobilization. It is a very likely scenario that Ukraine comes back to 2021 boundaries. And it's not completely impossible they get back to 2013 boundaries either.

[@МаксВолк-р3д]

@@grigoriipodoksik2622 Happy LPR Liberation Day within the borders of the region

[@shiangchen1]

You did cover with enough support it's possible Ukraine completely defeats Russia's army.

[@aliwatson95]

World War 3 does not have to be nucellar. Because of MAD in my opinion they will never be used again. If WW3 did start it was probably be a war in Europe like WW2 but much further east. The Russians might see some success a the start of the war, but NATO is stronger and can last longer then Russia. This is shown right now in the war with Ukraine. Fast progress at the start, ten it slows down completely. I think this would just be on a larger scale.

[@mountainman8775]

This is wishful thinking from you I believe. For someone who lies reflexively, Putin is being darkly ironic in my opinion in that on this one issue of his nuclear threats, he is for once precisely there actually telling the truth.

[@memebaltan]

MAD is based on rationality. Nuclear warheads could be used because of an irrational leader.

[@mountainman8775]

@@memebaltan put very succinctly

[@arguekayes]

Yeah at this point it’s way past due for Ukraine to just give up if Russia does “win” or successfully take control. Too many Civilians/soldiers are willing to do anything to push them out on top of all the countries who are supporting Ukraine probably wouldn’t want Russia to move in.

[@JJ_Khailha]

Number 11: Chuck Norris gets sent in.

[@kennethmorrison7689]

And promptly pisses in his pants.