Why Putin Fragmented His Military: A Tale of Internal Rivalries and Intentional Mismanagement

[@Gametheory101]

All of the Zelda references: 6:12 "given the Link to the Past war of 2008" 6:49 "Let's turn back our Phantom Hourglasses" 8:03 "Its Spirit Tracks with a bygone era" 8:23 "The Oracle of Ages determined" 11:26 I intentionally mispronounced "cannon" as "Ganon" 13:19 "With the obvious Links Awakening an identical anger" 15:32 "The military acts as a Link between Worlds" 15:59 "they will soon find out that it is dangerous to go alone" 16:58 #wheresputin captures the Triforce. 18:00 "in this Age of Calamity" 22:26 Legend of Zelensky title card 22:31 "Hey, listen!" 23:28 "if you have the power, wisdom, and courage" 22:56 "the game where I Try Forcing the Russian leader"

[@NightSkyNyx]

A commenter by the name of "Additional Points" seems to have gotten all of the Zelda references. They even managed to catch the Spirit Tracks and Cannon/Ganon pronunciation! It seems they might have missed the #wheresputin Triforce and also guessed 2 extra references near the beginning at 3:14 and 6:08 as Triforces (though I'm not sure if those 2 were intentional or not lol).

[@sebuls]

Honestly didn't catch any of those. Impressive interweaving, or maybe I'm just an absolute numpty.

[@jeffstaples347]

I heard the Ganon one

[@gazzamildog6732]

Not gonna lie I thought something was up when you said phantom hourglass 😂

[@rashkavar]

I'm amused that I missed "Phantom Hourglass, Spirit Tracks, Oracle of Ages, and Ganon, but caught Link to the Past, Link's Awakening and Link Between Worlds, given those are all titles that actually weave semi-organically into their sentences. (Link Between Worlds less so, as it was the one that caused me to pause and check the comments for Zelda references, but it was also the third title drop I'd caught, at which point one starts to suspect a pattern.)

[@PapaOscarNovember]

Russian military reminds me a lot of feudal kingdom military - an army built by aggregating armies of feudal lords who owe their allegiance to the king. Progozhin, Shoigu, Kardyrov, Medvedev, etc. are nobles with titles such as duke, marquis, count, earl, etc. Some of the nobles seem to harbor royal ambition since the king (Putin) does not have an heir. They are jockeying for favorable positions in the court, in case the king falls from position of power. Putin has had to put them in their places (not giving them ammo and supplies).

[@rjfaber1991]

Exactly what I thought as well.

[@Muaddibize]

That is how politics works everywhere, sure the stakes are not as bloody as in the case of this war. But how do you think party's, or companies, work ?

[@icosthop9998]

Nice

[@cytrynowy_melon6604]

​​@@Muaddibizeot to the extent in Russia. Better democracy usually means that government is controlling the army pretty well, as it has is authority as being elected by most of people. In authoritarianism, no one really has true privilege of being the winner of fair election, oligarchs and factions play a bigger role, replacing the general public role in democracy.

[@adenoidhinkel34]

Your warriors in Ukraine are sitting in the bushes and pits smiling. They did not participate in a single attack for a drug addict clown.

[@chrisjackson1215]

"Regional leaders are expected to recruit, supply, and train soldiers for battles." That sounds an awful lot like Feudalism to me.

[@razorburn645]

Oh God.. does Putain think he's a 21st century Shogun or something?

[@rokkraljkolesa9317]

@@razorburn645 no, he thinks he's a tsar

[@planningahea8505]

Thats exactly what currently Chechnya is.

[@whoisme678]

​@@rokkraljkolesa9317 I know what he is, but I can't repeat it on here. 😮

[@robertduluth8994]

The reactionaries won in 1991, what dis you expect?

[@Ashinle]

All Zelda references: 3:14 Maybe triforce 6:08 Another triforce 6:12 Link to the past 6:49 Phantom hourglass 8:03 Spirit Tracks (wow that was hard to notice) 8:23 Oracle of ages 11:26 Cannon maybe Ganon? 13:19 Link's Awakening 15:32 Link between worlds 15:59 It's dangerous to go alone 18:00 Age of calamity 22:26 Legend of Zelenskyy 22:31 Hey listen 23:28 Power wisdom courage 22:56 Tri-force(ing) Love that ending message. Also thanks for finding the other references everyone

[@JatSingh]

There was a "links awakening" somewhere too

[@Ashinle]

​@@JatSinghAdding in with edits

[@commandertaco1762]

I didn't get it at first why all the zelda references

[@commandertaco1762]

15:58 it's dangerous to go alone

[@scaper12123]

God damn i didn’t realize he took the metaphore so far xD

[@Astronetics]

I only recently found this channel but I had no idea this guy is an actual professor and has a PhD in this. Much respect!

[@gorethegreat]

He is superb

[@bearok89]

@@noneshere Damn bro you got the whole squad laughing

[@agentorange9867]

@@noneshere go back to the woodwork you climbed out from, and cope a little. Maybe this will silence your tankie crying🤣🤣🤣

[@Itsmyface]

@@noneshereGo to the frontline troll.

[@Degarth]

​@Noneshere well, you can tell the joke writers are on strike, too.

[@Special_K_42069]

Very interesting to learn all this - especially considering how Ukraine 🇺🇦 v Russland’s military’s used their time between 2014-2022. 🇺🇦 trained with the West and centralized it’s structure, whereas 🇷🇺 seemingly took no new action and carried on with old ways

[@leerzeichn93]

To be honest they also had a whole war in Syria. And attacking a country is always bad for morale.

[@flipw3605]

Attacking a military that is well below its skill level gave it a sense of complacency. Going up against a well-trained army is another matter entirely, as they are discovering.

[@LaGrandeBayou]

You mean going up against 42 countries don't you? 🇷🇺 Has literally exhausted the surplus munitions tanks weapons systems and artillery of a dozen or more countries. But you won't hear Spaniel talk about that.

[@flipw3605]

@@LaGrandeBayou If one country invades another of its own volition then that invading army has to deal with whatever comes their way regardless of whether the invaded country has allies or not. If Russia does not like having to deal with the invaded country and their allies it can leave. Consider this. If Russia's invasion is in 'defence' of Russians how come they do not have allies willing to wade in on their behalf. While you wish to spread propaganda the facts are the facts. Look at the history of many countries and it is clear that the invading army has to deal with whatever is chucked their way. But as history is a convenient thing to be dismissed it will be again dismissed by you.

[@xXRealXx]

​​@@LaGrandeBayou sending supplies ≠ actually entering a war

[@SRFriso94]

Reminded of something LazerPig said in his video about the T-14 (yes, there are reasons to question certain aspects of that video, but not so much this quote): "[Putin] knew that no matter how many knives glinted in the darkness behind him, no one would dare strike first if there was nobody powerful enough to replace him."

[@casbot71]

What parts of the T-14 video are questionable?

[@BurnBird1]

^

[@oldmandoinghighkicksonlyin1368]

Whomever it is, they'll have to have the allegiance of the FSB/GRU. They can defenestrate any politician with impunity. And like all dictators, they have to pay cash money in exchange for the loyalty of their grubby little lackeys. Putin has both wealth and suction within the thuggish intel community of Russia. My bet is that someone with a media background replaces him. I bet there are a cabal of pissed-off journalists who can shine a light on all the obscene wealth and corruption of the would-be dictators to the point that a pitchfork-wielding mob can take care of them. That is, if average Russian citizens rethink the social model and become engaged in their future. That is a big ask outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg.

[@jamesmilton6529]

The origins of the T14 engine

[@Destroyer_V0]

@@casbot71 The part where he has issues translating Russian engine power units to the more commonly accepted... imperial based metrics of horsepower and torque. And ends up with a figure that ain't right. The whole, russian tank engine is about as powerful as a small coupe from the west.

[@aaronbaker2186]

A big problem with the fragmentation is that coordination is essential for military efforts. You don't want to have the right flank wonder off in the middle of a battle so your foe can roll you up. You want artillery or aircraft to provide supporting fire, etc. War is chaos, but adding another layer of confusion by having multiple chains of command will make things much worse.

[@michael-m]

I cannot get enough of your work, my friend. Keep it up, it keeps us informed in a much more in-depth way

[@dinozulic1624]

At 11:26 he says Gannon PMC :)

[@deirdrickrayner6198]

Outstanding channel. Watch every video. Gives information and objective insight not available in media. Thank you so much William and keep them coming. The occasional interjection of dry humor is appreciated too!

[@w0rmblood323]

This channel and Perun are becoming my favorite channels. A collaboration would be epic

[@alexanderchenf1]

Perun is establishment garbage, with no independent thinking at all

[@shrike06]

There is also the fact that Russia has two Armed Forces: the Rosgvardia and related Interior Ministry units (and agencies like the FSB), and the Armed Forces under the Ministry of Defense. The Russian State places much greater priority on crushing internal disorder and rebellion than on defeating external enemies. Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Armed Forces have spent a lot of time getting the shit end of the stick compared to other "power ministries" (parts of the government who get to have people carrying guns). Part of this may be due to bad memories of the Soviet Era, when 25% of GDP went to the Red Army.

[@kerdart351]

And now Wagner, and numerous other independant milicia (even Gazprom has its own milicia now)

[@hilestoby2628]

A theory I have heard is that Russia got the idea for private military groups from the United States during the 2001 and 2003 campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. Contractors were used to make defense assets and private security companies like Blackwater were used for protection and in some cases combat. Some of the operations led to some abuses of humans rights.

[@Yora21]

To nobody's surprise. Mercenaries had a very bad reputation historically because shit like that happens all the time.

[@gabig3794]

Wagner started as a neo nazi organisation, hence the name Wagner (Hitler s fave)

[@5552-d8b]

Yes PMCs are not a efficient way to win hearts and minds. In didn’t work in iraq and didn’t work in Afghanistan, it’s not working with Russia in Ukraine right now. Because pmcs tend to not have to go by Geneva convention standards It didn’t work in cod mw2 and advanced warfare with shadow company lmao if you want to go fiction 🤣🤣

[@chaosXP3RT]

Blackwater went bankrupt and became defunct because of its war crimes. Wagner seems to be doing fine though

[@hilestoby2628]

@@chaosXP3RT Wager is backed by the Kremlin and is used as Putin's mercenary force in Africa and Urkaine.

[@FoundingYouTuber-2005]

Once again Mr. Spaniel's scholarship and insights do not disappoint. My measure of such things is that this 25-minute presentation seemed about 10 minutes in length. Time flies when listening to his pearls of wisdom.

[@davidellett9316]

> The oft-forgotten Coast Guard This is the truth. Lee Greenwood (the guy who sings "Proud to be an American") performed at the Sun Bowl in 2010. He sang a song where there was a part that was like "Let's hear it for the ARMY! (the crowd goes wild) Let's hear it for the NAVY! (crowd cheers again) and the AIR FORCE! (crowd roars once again) and our boys in the COAST GUARD! (crowd audibly says "Huh?" in unison)

[@Ifraneljadida]

I bought your book. I've watched all your videos so I don't think it'll be life changing, but I'm just glad we have people such as yourself educating American students on war. I mean, how many classes are in one credit hour of your lesson? I've watched at least 15, thirty minute videos of yours and gained a ton of knowledge. Is that somewhat like completing a geopolitical course on the Ukraine war? Of course, there is no test, but it's still interesting to think

[@rogerbrownreacts8528]

Putin reads too many Warhammer 40k novels.

[@krysu7777]

That's really creative way to put it

[@greywolf7422]

​@@krysu7777What's the guy referring to, I haven't interacted with the War hammer universe outside of pop culture memetics?

[@gagaplex]

@@greywolf7422 The main human army in that setting is basically a giant, incomprehensible juggernaut of competing interest groups (military branches, troops from different planets, loyalties towards various feudal lords or governors etc.) and it's a bit of a meme that they will either abandon each other or outright sabotage, bombard, kill each other or declare them heretics and traitors for even minor political gain or petty revenge. Oh, and the incompetence, disregard for human lives and materiel and a massive bureaucracy makes them even more inefficient.

[@foxbutt7410]

I swear to god, you stole the thought out of my brain.

[@spark5580]

You think Putin plays chaos?

[@JCtheMusicMan_]

A downside of using a PMC is that outsiders can destroy them with impunity.

[@ParagonFury]

We should ask Wagner group in Syria their thoughts about......oh riiiiiiight.

[@doomedwit1010]

Upside and downside. In TW3 this trait is called Meat Shield. The loss of the unit does not affect morale of other units. It's a valuable trait for units you expect to see destroyed!

[@ParagonFury]

@@doomedwit1010 The thing is how they get destroyed. If it seems like a somewhat fair/winnable fight or that the opponent was wounded by it then it MIGHT be worth it. If they're destroyed the way the Wagner group was in Syria, then not only have you lost that unit but the morale of any of your units who see it or hear of it is going to be absolutely gone.

[@mcbrite]

@@doomedwit1010 The also have "Strider", but very low Leadership, Melee Attack and Defence, and only 30 Armor... ^^ Basically panicked Orc Laborers... ^^

[@ev.c6]

What has been staggering for me is how inefficient the Russian army is. I really thought Ukraine was going to fall within a couple of weeks, but I was proved wrong by their commitment to fight back and how incapable the russians were. Just bad.

[@tomwithey711]

​@@davidcox9674 😂😂 nice try, comrade.

[@khijir2]

​@@davidcox9674 provide links comrade cox

[@mrcaboosevg6089]

@@davidcox9674 Russia just lost 2 miles of land in a city they have been fight for for months. If they had a defensive line it has been shattered and they currently getting shafted

[@wealthelife]

@@davidcox9674 Such delusions will see Russia continue to self-immolate until it has insufficient conventional military capability left to 'protect' parts of RF that 'historically' were parts of other sovereign nations eg. Konigsberg (previously part of Germany or Poland for hundreds of years), Crimean Khanate (previously part of Ottoman Empire/Turkyi for hundreds of years), Finnish Kaleria and Salie, Outer Manchuria (previously part of Chinese Empire for hundreds of years), and, of course, the Kuril Islands. The risk faced by a military power seeking to increase territory via military means is that it can (and often does) lead to the exact opposite outcome, despite initial belief that 'victory is inevitable'. Examples such as Roman Empire, Austro-hungarian Empire, Mongol Empire, Ottoman Empire, Japanese and German expansion in the first two years of WWII, etc.abound. The longer (and more unrealistic) a belief in 'ultimate victory' is maintained, the worse the final result -- just look at how Germany and Japan ended up after WWII, and what their propaganda machines (and large parts of the population and leadership still, apparently, believed well after the 'tide of war' had turned) were still pushing in the latter phases of the war. Keep up your 'think positive' fantasy -- it is doing Russia irreparable harm (as is Putin). ps. If Ukraine had lost 7-1 KIA vs Russian forces (by which one means all forces on the Russia side -- Wagner, DPR, LPR etc. not just Russian army controlled by MOD and reported as 'official casualty' fantasy numbers by the MOD) then the war would have ended last year, given the relative populations of Ukraine vs Russia. The fact that Russia has already been forced out of a large fraction of the Ukrainian territory it had initially captured in early 2022, and has now (as you say) 'adopted defensive positions' indicates that Russia MUST have suffered considerably more losses than Ukraine in absolute terms (i have no idea if it is actually 1:1. 2:1. 3:1 or 7:1, reliable data just isn't available), just so that the level of losses (relative to the population) could be roughly comparable. pps. If you think about the 'war of attrition' pros and cons, perhaps you should briefly consider the resources (population, GDP etc) of each 'side' in terms of equipment supply and future production (not just manpower). NATO isn't directly involved (despite what Russian state media likes to claim for the benefit of internal Russian consumption), but it is definitely involved regarding supply of equipment when talking about a 'war of attrition'. Given that 'the West' is supporting Ukraine, and Iran is supporting Russia, you might want to think about GDP of Russia vs 'the West' and how this might affect the outcome of a 'war of attrition'. Sure 'the West' may lose interest and reduce (rather the continue to increase) supplies to Ukraine (although that seems unlikely given the US lend-lease agreement -- think about how WWII went with lend-lease for UK and US supplying vast amounts of equipment to Russia) in 2024 and beyond - which would make eventual Ukraine 'victory' highly unlikely (but an indefinite insurgency would probably still make a 'Russian victory' pyrrhic in such an event). But you have to make some rampant speculation to come to the conclusion that a 'war of attrition' would actually work out well for Russia.

[@scisher3294]

Thank you for that explanation of military efforts as “sports wagering”. That was very apt.

[@iitim2152]

So basically he has created for himself the same challenges as early medieval armies where powerful nobles often controlled large sections of the military and king's we're beholden to their whims. Often was the case where one noble unexpected quit a flank to expose a rival to the enemy.

[@camelofsiberia962]

This literally happened now lol

[@iitim2152]

@@camelofsiberia962 lol yep.. It's almost like it was predictable 😕

[@rhea7756]

Zelensky is the guy in the middle in that picture. I don't believe the myth that he doesn't hide or sit in bunker. Everyone loves their own life you know. But he isn't delusional like Putin, he is realistic and hence understands that he has to appear before public to boost morale . And he does this despite almost daily threats to take him out. Massive respect to the guy!

[@rutgerb]

Which myth? He slept in a bunker for months, he gave a mtv cribs like show of the bunker and his bed

[@rutgerb]

Search: "Zelensky bunker" you will see a walktrough from 2 months ago

[@rhea7756]

@@rutgerb that's not his bunker. It's part of his office. It's there right from the time the palace was built

[@wperfect]

​@@rutgerbHe still travels overseas

[@lukaslee7380]

@@rutgerb which side are you on? also give me a *direct* source to this whole "Zelenskyy bunker tour thing"

[@Heatevjfv]

Thank you for the end comments. It must be difficult for you to constantly think and talk about such things about the world. Thank you for just the information and keep up the good work. It is good to throw a little silliness in every once in a while. We appreciate you.🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@dmoney_pimpslap]

I didn't think it'd be possible to slide that many Legend of Zelda references into a video about RUS/Ukraine.

[@canuckbucks]

@William Spaniel, your contribution is immense. Every terrible crisis is simultaneously an awe-inspiring opportunity. This is merely the way of things and not a megalomaniacal personality's perspective. An informed public has a much greater capacity to ensure that promising opportunities are taken, and the evil dreams and wishes of the dark forces within us do not prevail... I'm just about having a nervous breakdown over here, now I know how slow the time must have crept by on D-Day -1. Intelligence departments alone carry the baton now, until the shooting really starts. As such their task is critical to success. I wish them every success, a success I know they are capable of. Glory to the heroes.

[@richardcory5024]

Hitler took a similar, but more limited approach with the German Army. The SS were an elite corps, more of a Praetorian guard than anything else, independent of Wehrmacht control. Hitler also interfered, and often overruled or supplanted, as does Putin, his Army generals. Moreover the Nazi administrative and governmental system was full of overlapping authorities competing for power. Hitler's view was that that his devotees in the Party should fight each other for power in these confused hierarchies and that the best would come out on top, Darwin style, through natural selection. It led to a lot more disorganisation than we have been lead to expect from authoritarian regimes, contrary to the myth that Nazi Germany was an efficient well oiled machine. Putin's regime is likewise hopelessly inefficient and corrupt. It has to be that way for him to retain power within it. Likewise Xi in China relies on a corrupt regime to keep him in power. As Prof. Kotkin said, authoritarian regimes fail at everything. All they need to do to remain in power is repress their own populations sufficiently well to survive. Russia and China do this remarkably well but the world leaders are without question North Korea.

[@TheRezro]

And it was cluster duck...

[@RCorvinus]

You forgot the Luftwaffe having 22 field infantry divisions and the Herman Goring Panzer Korps……..all a total waste of manpower.

[@richardcory5024]

@@RCorvinus Fair point. There were numerous Romanian, Hungarian and other motley Wehrmacht and SS divisions from conquered territories which did not necessarily prove to be very combat worthy. These represented some sort of dilution of military effectiveness.

[@LaGrandeBayou]

PUPPETSKYYS Ukrainian SBU are the modern equivalent of the NAZI SS.

[@cynicat74]

What's funny is that during WWII, the Chief of the Heer would have to report to the Chief of the Wehrmacht. After the Battle of Moscow, Hitler appointed himself as Chief of the Heer. So, in 1944, Adolf Hitler would report to Generalfeldmarschall Wilhelm Keitel, who had to report to... Adolf Hitler

[@mikedeveau3200]

You can tell that you put a lot of work in this story bravo brilliant work you are a great JOURNALIST!!!!!

[@jevinliu4658]

Seeing Richard Wagner looking at us when talking about the Battle of Bakhmut gets me every time, even though I know why he got on those pixels on my screen

[@joelsmith5938]

Is there some veiled irony considering Wagner’s own thinly veiled German nationalism and not-so thinly-veiled anti-semitism?

[@Marlboroman500]

Very interesting video, and great job on it and on the willingness to understand and stay up to date and share the latest news, even though sometimes it is frustrating, and maddening and makes you forget the laughter, humor, and happiness in life. War is maddening, politics is sometimes maddening, but knowing you’re not alone is important! Thnx for the vid!💯

[@loekbergenvan5410]

Great how you make the game of international relations understandable for everyone! 👍😉

[@TheDMG45]

Is it just me or is this video full of Zelda terms? Phantom Hourglass, Oracle of Ages? Pronouncing 'Cannon PMC' as 'Ganon PMC' at 11:27? The "obvious links awakening" at 13:24! A "link between worlds" 15:35. Age of Calamity.

[@Poki3]

There are way more then just those. It's dangerous to go alone searching for all of them.

[@b33lze6u6]

i heard oracle of ages and was like what ?

[@dplocksmith91]

It's deliberate.

[@wythewinchester3236]

Since William Spaniel has stated that he is an "AI"; what do you expect?

[@joelsmith5938]

You forgot *The Legend of Zelenskiy*

[@daviddenny4092]

Hitler favoured the same fragmentation in the 3rd Reich - for very much the same reasons, I think. An excellent analysis, as always. Thanks

[@14MCDLXXXVIII88]

reference? your bottom...

[@cynicat74]

@@14MCDLXXXVIII88 The Waffen--SS vs the Wehrmacht, as well as a separation of command. For example: Hitler was Chief of the Heer, which meant he had to report to his "superior", the Chief of the Wehrmacht, who served under Hitler as Fuhrer. In 1944, Hitler would report to Generalfeldmarschall Wilhelm Keitel, who had to report to Hitler. Are you seeing the problem yet?

[@14MCDLXXXVIII88]

@@cynicat74 When Russia has a strong army but not that strong leader; army commits coup d'etat (just like Nikita Kruschev or Nikolai II). This is not a problem for Germans in history. (of course there were traitors like Claus von Stauffenberg, but they never got the whole army) The Wehrmacht was a cohesive and centralized military force under Austrian Painter's direct control. It was a state-run entity with a clear chain of command and an ideological alignment with the party. Every soldier had the same motivation to fight. On the other hand, modern Russia has a more decentralized military structure. Alongside the state-run military, there are numerous PMCs that operate semi-independently, often in international conflicts and in Ukriane. These groups have different motivations and loyalties, leading to divisions. German army fought with a sense of unity and coordination, as if they functioned as a single body with each soldier as a vital cell. However, despite this collective effort, it was ultimately insufficient for them to achieve victory. They look nothing like today's Russia.

[@cynicat74]

@@14MCDLXXXVIII88 The centralisation of the Wehrmacht has absolutely nothing to do with my comment. It wasn't a rivalry within the Wehrmacht, it was a rivalry between the Wehrmacht, the Waffen-SS, and the Luftwaffe ground forces. You can like your own comments all you want, you still completely missed the point.

[@Gamer8585]

Thank you for having the courage to share your wisdom on the Russo-Ukrainian war on this powerful social media platform.

[@Gametheory101]

I see what you did there.

[@libertyauto]

And to think that Seagall would be so gracious as to share the screen with Zelenskyy.

[@hungrymusicwolf]

"The Legend of Zelensky" - I absolutely love it.

[@billotto602]

Another fantastic lesson. You do such an amazing job of explaining things that get so twisted in any MSM from any country. Thank-you.

[@muadhib001]

Let's cancel all free medias like putin!😉

[@rogerwilco2]

ALL dictatorships can only function because of lots of internal rivalries and duplication and inefficiencies. It helps the dictator stay in power as those that could replace him are too busy fighting each other and nobody has enough power to topple the leader.

[@hydroaegis6658]

So a dictator is effectively no more powerful than an elected official in a democracy.

[@haxney]

​@@hydroaegis6658 I wouldn't say "no more powerful," but they don't have the unrestricted ability to dictate policy that we commonly imagine. If Putin tells Shoigu to take Bakhmut and Shoigu refuses, then what can Putin do? He could tell someone to shoot Shoigu, but would that person listen to Putin? Putin could do it himself, but if Shoigu convinces a few loyal supporters to defend him, then Putin is out of luck. So Putin has to convince Shoigu that Shoigu is better off with Putin than against him.

[@vaevak418]

@@hydroaegis6658 i think you took away the wrong message. Getting voted out as opposed to staying in until you die, would be the difference. 🤷🏼‍♂️

[@Sladen70]

4:45 a friendly reminder that we have 1 even more forgotten branch. The Merchant Marines. While not considered military, they have been our logistical backbone since the revolutionary war.

[@HeisenbergFam]

I hope the war ends soon, its sad to hear TV constantly talking about casualties and horrors of it

[@turkeydoctor5546]

I totally agree. Ukraine is natos proxy war

[@rogerwilco2]

I think it will last at least another year. We need to give Ukraine all we can as the war will only end if they win. Russia is not going to end this war until they are in Berlin.

[@LoneWolf-wp9dn]

it wont... the more russia loses the more iran and china will get involved

[@WuTangChopstick]

Turn off the TV. Why are you watching fear mongering box ? Live your life free from fear.

[@ReySchultz121]

I see this man everywhere.

[@sovereignukraine]

And your closing comments from 22:50 where very powerful. A strong message. You are a 'tinker' Mr Spaniel.

[@dalidaz72]

Great channel very informative and a very clever guy gooood job 👌

[@studiosnch]

On casualty sensitivity: in the former Soviet Union the numbers "200" and "300" are feared, because in Soviet military code "200" meant as casualties and "300" injuries. This was first practiced in the Soviet-Afghan War in a bid to hide real statisticsand standardize reporting. This was prompted because the Soviets decided to not centralize the burial of all war dead, instesd sending the soldier's body to their home town. To an extent this catalyzed the dehumanization of war deaths as the human loss was presented as "special cargo", hence you'll see and hear "200 cargo" often in pro-rus Telegram groups. Of course a new dimension evolved as well, with morbid jokes of dead russian men transforming into Ladas, refrigerators, or toilets for the benefit of their surviving relatives. Ukraine, on the other hand, moved away from this concept and adopted the Western casuality sensibility of "human lives lost", calling their war dead "those who bore the shield", publicizing their funerals so as to maintain the gravitas of human loss, and practicing actions that permit group commemoration such as the simple act of kneeling on one feet as the funeral cortege passes by in front of them as a sign of respect.

[@-yeme-]

can you imagine if the secretary of defence of the UK or US also happened to run a mercenary company...

[@overbeb]

Or a certain Vice President owning a contracting firm (Halliburton) which profited immensely during his time in office from wars of aggression.

[@_PatrickO]

@@overbeb He screwed us all with the invasion in iraq. Sadam was keeping religious extremists at bay.

[@nihluxler1890]

No. In the US, mercenary companies own them, not the other way around.

[@floydlooney6837]

or a state-owned entity - Postal service? - owning a PMC?

[@TonyM540]

Sounds like a recipe for corruption.

[@x7xshark]

Highly recommended! Vlad’s expertise, attention to detail, and professionalism exceeded my expectations. My bathroom looks amazing. Thank you!

[@garyknight8616]

Superb analysis. Very thought provoking. Thank you.

[@rogerwilliams1556]

William, very impresive.. thank you for cutting through the fog and explaining clearly to your viewers what is actually going on behind the scenes in the Rus/UA war. The quality of your work is second to none.

[@w.callens1629]

'... they both have boats....' the department of boat people: ' we have ships'

[@seanwalker9904]

Thanks, love your content. Critical reasoning and a broad point of view. The humor is appreciated, and welcome from my point of view. It helps ease the feelings of negativity and despair, while not taking so much away from the situation to trivialize what is happening to to Ukraine and others involved. Not every hero shoulders a gun. Slava Ukraine.

[@samyfay7786]

😯Wow. This capsule broaden my scope of view toward this war like no other. I am so glad you published it. I now understand a lot more about some details that where escaping my general point of view. Thanks again.

[@markdowse3572]

Another excellent piece, Mr Spaniel. 👍 It will be fascinating to see what happens to all these fragmented Ruzzian 'armies' when the Ukrainians smash through them! We stand with Ukraine! 💪💪 M 🦘🏏😎

[@martinvasquez818]

Many times before, it has been said, "a team will ALWAYS beat a group of specialists"

[@lastonestanding1641]

yeah right, "specialists"

[@altide8784]

You mean a bunch of lions will lose to a hoard of sheep? Guess this happend in the movie 300 :o

[@martinvasquez818]

@@altide8784 I would've agreed, but the battlefield has proven Russia has no lions, only hollow paper tigers

[@Connstein]

@@altide8784 in the movie 300 they mow down a shit load of different types of soldiers/armys

[@nanorider426]

The outro really got me. Yep. We have to stay sane and a little silliness is always good. Take care Mr. Spaniel. ^^

[@kieranelliott5607]

Final comments on the importance of staying sane, even with a bit of silliness when discussing serious things, was very poignant.

[@jerelull9629]

If you didn't laugh, you would have to cry.

[@applejuice7847]

On 20:30: I sadly forgot the website but there is a graphic that shows a timeline of russian/soviet wars in the last century and the deaths of high ranking personnel. It shows an interesting trend of purging the experienced military leaders after every conflict. It reinforces the point that modern russia and the soviet union where and are secret service countries. Their focus on internal security makes it very very hard for civilians to overthrow the governent. Thus the biggest threat to the goverment is the military. This is then the reason why experienced and well know military men get purged before they can become a danger to the regime.

[@GreatGatzB]

Eight minutes in and I already know the theme of this episode 😂 this guy isn’t an AI, he’s a gamer!

[@pouglwaw5932]

Yes, stay unprogrammable, stay unpredictable. The UAF is always showing us that it has learned these lessons well.

[@LarryGunshow]

Thanks!

[@supercellodude]

I recently read a book about the Roman Emperor Augustus' rise and solidification of his power after the civil wars and death of Julius Caesar. He had multiple kinds of units besides the 28 legions he allocated after the battle of Actium: Praetorian Guard, urban cohorts, auxilla from client kingdoms and tribes, and being able to recruit and free slaves into military service in emergencies. Perhaps Putin is trying to avoid all of the materiel that can move among the Vory, PMCs and the military from overwhelming his own "praetorians" in the FSB

[@bounce12]

Love these videos. Many people are doing similar videos but not with your touch!! Great job on your work

[@thepolticalone961]

Internal rivalries just like in metal gear. And PMCs

[@tariver1693]

7:26 There is no such a limit for conscripts in the Russian law. It's more of a self-imposed restriction resulting from the experience in Afghan and, especially, Chech Wars. There was a restriction for conscripts to be a part of peacekeeping forces, which was later changed.

[@lordomacron3719]

Have you ever considered comparing and contrasting modern PMCs with one of days past. I wonder how the Wagner group compares to the Dutch East Indies company or the British East India company. Both were vast businesses with their own military. Is there any private entity that can equal what they had?

[@caryccharlson]

This explains GasProm PMC. Very well done. You have open my eyes to a different way of looking at this.

[@alej2297]

Really looking forward to the final battle of this war against Calamity Putin.

[@stateofopportunity1286]

There's not a single American alive who can criticize anyone else's management of a war. We've lost almost every one we've started in the past 50 years.

[@larzkruber822]

You could use the face of Gerhard Schröder for the Gazprom symbol

[@kilianhzh]

Would be epic

[@jeffcool9769]

Silliness is a gift we all need now and then, thanks for that.

[@Edax_Royeaux]

It appears dividing up the military and pitting them against each other was not that productive.

[@_Ocariao]

Your content is gold, William. Realistic, based on reality and make me think everytime. Such a remarkable work you do here, congratulations! Greetings from Brazil!

[@johnvanzoest4532]

Whoever you are, you're clearly not AI. the voice will suffice. The Analysis is very important. Pray continue, persist, good sir.

[@LOBricksAndSecrets]

"The oracle of ages" "It's dangerous to go alone" "Age of Calamity" Legend of Zelda references?

[@LOBricksAndSecrets]

Okay the end of the video made it obvious. Yeah

[@ArktinenPeikko]

I'm totally ok with a little bit of harmless fun even if there is a war going on. I'm sure the guys in trenches joke about some morbid stuff most of the time to keep sane as well. Gallows humor i think is the phrase. Anyway, makes these videos less depressing to have a slightly lighter commentary to go with the theme. Extra points for Zelda references =) Although you didn't repeat "Hey, Listen!" often enough.

[@dereksollows9783]

Excellent work as usual. I save your presentations for my quiet times to avoid distraction. I love the "trash panda" association with that Russian paratroop unit. Definitely an addition to human culture.

[@agnarrenolen1336]

There was a forth option on how to send conscript soldiers into the special military operation: simply annex the four regions into the Russian constitution, and voila…

[@jamesbaker139]

#wheresputin Putin 'Wheres Wally' at 16:58. Great video, well done!

[@becca125]

Video aged like a fine wine 🤌

[@jacobspaniel9568]

Hey cousin! Another great quality video! Glad you told me about your channel that night at dinner. I enjoy your content.

[@Gametheory101]

Hey! Glad you like it.

[@miniaturejayhawk8702]

I love how you put a picture of wagner (the composer) to represent wagner (the militia).

[@artn2950]

I am hooked on your every word re: Russian invasion!! Thank you!

[@drew2276]

I think the most important takeaway here was that the phantom hourglass was a great Zelda game! :)

[@Gametheory101]

I’m in the middle of my first play through of it. I’ve enjoyed the dungeon design. Hoping to finish the game on Wednesday.

[@drew2276]

I've been a life long Zelda fan and wind waker holds a special place in my heart. Cheers!

[@victorhugofranciscon7899]

​@@Gametheory101 that explains all of the Zelda references in the video

[@JoshSweetvale]

You never go full Hitler. With _anything._ Stalin _kinda_ did this. *With security forces.* But he kept the Red Army as an apolitical, outward-facing force, with generals in the same 'shut up and we ignore eachother' setup Putin had with his Oiligarchs. But Hitler let his generals compete. And it certainly kept them passionate. It also sapped Germany's vast-but-limited resources even faster than the mindless drive for cool prototypes. (Something else Russia is doing.)

[@judithcampbell1705]

Thank you 💛 for explaining everything. You have made it make sense. It would be helpful if you did a video delving into the reasons why Putin started the war with Ukraine. And why he is not giving up. Why he started the war? Thank you 💛

[@robertambalong8560]

I believed he explained the issue in his book titled "What caused the Russia-Ukraine war" It's a good read.

[@richardrosecky1574]

Thank you for your cogent comments. Your comments make it easier to understand the chaos in Ukraine.

[@RichB-v1n]

Very helpful analysis, thank you. One further nuance I think that plays into the PMC development is that oligarchs are preparing for a post-Putin Russia, with even the threat of civil war. How better can oligarchs defend their riches and be power brokers than to build their own PMC. These PMCs may be loyal to Putin today, but not after he goes, and that could be anytime.

[@Ebooger]

Extremely well done and informative, clears up and explains a lot of the strange Russian military behavior.

[@michaelw6277]

What’s wild is that the United States has “fragmentation” built into its structure. Operational and administrative chains of command are almost always completely separate from one another and people are shuffled around with enough frequency that no one individual can just rally a small army and declare themselves to be Supreme Leader of the USA or drop nukes on Cuba for funsies. But it all still extremely effective because the system and how people are appointed to certain positions and levels of responsibility and who they answer to is very clearly laid out. An easy example is that all services have weapons that “fly.” But operational command of all of these things is very complicated. The officer in charge of operations within a given area comes from the service which has contributed the most equipment and personnel, so this is usually the Air Force, but that doesn’t mean they’re in control of every aircraft in their theater; the Army and Marines are designated a number of aircraft for MAGTAF and close air support and the Navy is allocated aircraft required for fleet defense. This means that a Fighter Wing commander in Florida can’t order the aircrews they’re in administrative command that are deployed to Korea and order them to bomb something.

[@BuddyLee23]

Can you recommend any sources discussing more about that? Not questioning the idea, just interested to learn more about it.

[@michaelw6277]

@@BuddyLee23 it all has roots in the Goldwaters-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act passed in 1986. The short of it is that it creates a “fractured” system that isolates administrative and operational chains of command and creates a system by which an officer appointed to operational command of any given force may be made up of personnel from any or every other service. So the Navy can’t say “my aviators will not be told what to do by Air Force officer”, because there’s a law that says that yes… Navy aviators can commanded by Air Force officers under certain clearly defined conditions.

[@casteretpollux]

Multiple Intel agencies tripping over each other.

[@vissitorsteve]

SO grateful to have found your channel!

[@thek3317]

16:58 binocular man spotted right side of the screen on the green roof with the tri force of courage

[@Keleneki]

Thanks for the great explanation. I'm glad I found your channel, sir.

[@HexDominator]

Great video

[@MichaelVII_]

it's only been 5 minutes but you already know it's gonna be another banger

[@teashea1]

articulate, intelligent, organized presentation with very fine production values

[@jplabs456]

Damn it he snuck in a line on a map somehow. There's no stopping him

[@Paulicz]

:D:D:D

[@Zero_Contradictions]

This explains why some reports say that Russian soldiers are being sent to the battlefront without any training whatsoever, while other articles say that Russian soldiers are training before being sent to fight in Ukraine.

[@ZZKJ396]

#whereszelensky Hes on the TV behind the crowd at 8:50

[@onikavelka]

Steven Segall Is also in that frame

[@MDCDiGiPiCs]

William, your videos are the best. Love your work.

[@fightingfinn1503]

Small world, I was just browsing you channel wondering when you were gonna upload 3 minutes ago 😅

[@AtilaVasconcelos]

same here :)

[@benlamprecht6414]

Thanks for providing this extremely interesting and insightful analysis

[@ewen666]

How much of this Wagner-MoD conflict is real and how much of it is a show for the public?

[@Zeropointill]

They've been squabbling over rubble for a fucking year now while failing to capture it. Even if it's a show, it's a shitshow. Not sure why you'd want to flaunt how utterly incompetent you are, willingly or not.

[@rgaud8]

Who knows. We won’t know the truth for many years of what is real and what is a psy-op.

[@1akinor]

well done study!

[@Zattilio]

this sounds like how civil wars start

[@armandoventura9043]

It's not possible, the Russians are too drunk and demoralized for that. The only thing that can happen is that Putin dies in the hands of someone and is replaced, but the panorama would not change even with that, only the head and in specific lands like chechnya

[@ryanbyrne2917]

Putin will need to fall before that happens. He is far too powerful to be forcefully removed

[@mr.2083]

If only

[@EarlWallaceNYC]

I appreciate your in-depth analysis. An informed citizenry is the foundation of a functional democracy. Thanks

[@Warmenwer2137]

#whereisputin 16:58 Hidden Putin stealing Triforce. Goes nicely along other Zelda references.

[@Gametheory101]

Nailed it, congrats!