Tesla Q1 Battery Report // The Death of the 4680 Has Been Greatly Exaggerated

[@rodolfoyoshii8345]

I’m starting to feel that Jordan is the new Rob Mauer. He’s ultra fact based, neutral, awesome voice projection and presence. With a plus of technical background in battery tech🎉!!

[@thelimitingfactor]

Thanks man! 😊

[@markumbers5362]

And quite an important person. This transition is the biggest economic and geopolitical disruption in history. Having someone like Jordan comprehensively explaining break throughs, and supply chain and scaling challenges is critically important. A lot of people are going to lose jobs and have to be retrained. The more people that know what is coming and why the easier it will be to adjust.

[@addanay]

Yes. Detailed. Fact based. I just wish iterations were a lil faster. Maybe weekly. I know it's tougher when true analysis is being made, but I look forward to more content.

[@thomasoneill7365]

Jordan Please accept my apologies....., It is impossible for me to adequately articulate and to express my appreciation to the level of research and unbiased evaluation that you have demonstrated in this video..Phew 👍👍👍 This is really very special 🙂

[@thelimitingfactor]

🤜🤛🤠

[@whlphil]

👏 as usual! I highly suspect that part of the reason 4680 hasn’t gone into other vehicles is availability of 3rd party cell supply, particularly US based production of them, this limits what models they would go into. If Tesla were to supply themselves with 4680 for say model 3 they would essentially be single source supplying in the US and creating a multi vehicle dependency on that supply. I think once the LG or Panasonic additional factories are on line we could well see 4680 spread to other models

[@thelimitingfactor]

Fair points!

[@w0ttheh3ll]

good point. traditional auto makers usually make sure they have at least two suppliers for any critical component

[@MichaelDo_Arthouse]

My only regret is that i have only one like to give!

[@thelimitingfactor]

😊

[@TheKjelan]

Using this great comment to place my second "like" for this video!

[@georgepelton5645]

I like that!😀

[@chrisdsouza8685]

Your own Limiting Factor ? 😂

[@TheVorst]

Thanks for the nice analysis, as always.🔋💰

[@thelimitingfactor]

Sure thing! Thanks for the support ✊🏼

[@louisvisagie283]

I wonder if Tesla would start building their own grid scale transformers to go with the megapacks. If supply is a problem they may want to do that, and they should have the engineering talent to build top quality transformers specifically tailored to their needs.

[@thelimitingfactor]

I wonder that too! Makes sense to me

[@Joe44944]

Jordan is very honest and knowledgeable, a rare jewel in the EV and battery information network. Thank you.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Sure thing buddy!

[@MooseOnEarth]

I see Jordan as an influencer like everybody else. Reasons: earnings call statements are considered facts. He then makes assumptions. His projections are not adjusted in time: like here: he further assumed 50% year-on-year growth (like from some earlier earnings call or Elon Musk twitter statement), when 2023 had only resulted in 38% growth and Q1 2024 had resulted in no growth. It takes him until June 2024 (almost 6 quarters in total) to step back from a former projection. From this video: four cell assembly lines that are planned with 100 GWh/a, with one feeding line out of four, now in total only produce 7 GWh/a due to scrap rated? Wait a minute, what about those 100 GWh/a having been exaggerated by far? That makes more sense. Battery day on 4680 cell was in 2020, four years ago. A good review would have looked into all statements from back then. Like +16% more range with 4680 => I did not see that anywhere. Cybertruck with 4680 (320 miles EPA) is way below its former promises on range (500 miles EPA). Also foward-looking statements like "Tesla will eat everybody's lunch." are not particarly fact-based. I consider that as a hype sentence appealing to long-term investors trying to convince them to keep their stocks no matter how the stock price develops. YMMV.

[@mikereinhardt1244]

One thing I didn't hear you talk about was the charging curve of the 4680 cells. If I missed it, sorry I was working while listening to the video. I love your videos and feel like they are some of the most detailed and trustworthy on the subject I have been able to find. I am wondering if you have any insight into the charging curve issue(s). Those being that though the 4680 vehicles are able to hit a high charge rate, they fall off more quickly than any other Tesla's and are even slower than most other EV's. The gen 1 in the Base Model Y AWD (now discontinued) was really bad, one of the worst charging curves in any long range EV. The Cybertruck is better, but it still suffers the same rapid drop off, and currently the 10-80% charging time is very bad for the AWD base version of the Model Y and still very bad for the Cybertruck (even considering 800V charging which Out of Spec actually tried with a custom adapter). I don't know why the charging curve is so bad, not even sure if it is not just a software issue. However, if it is being software limited, why? I am a Tesla shareholder and this worries me about as much as anything in the company. If the 4680 can't charge fast it is doomed regardless of how much money it saves on cars, and that would be a lot of wasted money. For the Cybertruck right now it is ok because there is nothing else in that market that charges fast anyway except the GM Silverado and Hummer, but those are still really low in production numbers. This won't be the case forever though, and if they try to use these on other cars that will compare to cars with fast charging speeds (Kia, Hyundai, Porsche, etc...) it will become a serious issue. Do you think this is something they can address?

[@ahhmm5381]

Is the 4680 the first battery that Tesla is making themselves?

[@thelimitingfactor]

Gen 1 - Hardware Limited Gen 2 - Software Limited (update coming)

[@mikereinhardt1244]

@@ahhmm5381 Ah, I am not sure what qualifies as making by themselves, nor am I an expert on that. My understanding is that the other cells they manufacture are in conjunction with Panasonic, what that exactly means I don't know and haven't researched. I think that misses the point though, the question is why is the 4680 having such a bad charging curve, could be a lot of things, including the size of the cell. But Jordan answered and I trust his sources/insight.

[@ahhmm5381]

​@@mikereinhardt1244 Sure, but if in fact these are the first cells the Tesla designed and manufactured themselves, they very likely don't know what they are doing. This would answer your initial question, and may be a better answer than handwaving away any issues with software updates, as the other commenter suggests.

[@mikereinhardt1244]

@@ahhmm5381 The other commenter is Jordan, the author of this channel and more knowledgeable than both of us put together. Tesla doesn't have the deep experience in battery development that a Panasonic or CATL does, but they are not newbies, they have been doing it for over a decade. Jordan is not hand waving, either, he is saying that he is making a video on that subject and already has done research probably. You are the one hand waving, and I know you are anti Tesla, so I really put everything you say in the suspicious category.

[@SimonClaringbold]

Excellent fact-based, grounded and holistic piece of analysis, especially relevant in the current noise-riddled media environment. Many thanks Jordan!

[@thelimitingfactor]

You're most welcome!

[@AuralioCabal]

Thanks Jordan, we need more people like you to clarify reports and news about Tesla and put down rumorr mills and Trolls!😂

[@elainebradley8213]

I love it! Anxiety inducing clickbait reporting! Excellent intro!

[@thelimitingfactor]

🤠Thanks man!

[@vtdave73]

While there may not be as huge of a shortage of lithium, it was interesting that Elon called out the boom and bust cycle on the call. Given the recent project delays from Arcadium/Albemarle/Piedmont/etc., I wouldn't at all be surprised if there are periods of under supply. Lots of projects that made sense a year or two ago do not make sense in today's market environment.

[@thelimitingfactor]

🎯

[@hotrodandrube9119]

The model y structural battery pack was using 4680s. I wonder if they're pushing all production to cybertruck lines because model Y's production would already outstrip cell production.

[@thelimitingfactor]

The Model Y pack was kind of a beta from my perspective They don't need the 4680 in the Y, but they do need it in the Cybertruck, and it can support the low margins

[@JRP3]

My big question is what factor is holding back Semi production which seems to be at a standstill until next year. Is it the 4680 production rate?

[@bradstewart7007]

The construction of the factory is part of it.

[@seancollins9745]

4680s and factory capacity

[@thelimitingfactor]

I know for a while it was due to cell supply, but I don't know if that's still the case given the 'glut' At the earnings call they indicated they were doing more testing and making further improvements. So, it may have been more than one reason or the reason evolved over time.

[@famnaff5136]

Jordan, how do you think about the Lithium processing and cathode plants?

[@andrewbuck5016]

Very clear, thank you!

[@nelsonmacy1010]

Jordan, is there any similarities between aluminum foil manufacturing that would be useful or similar in 4680 jelly roll winding. Superficially they seem similar. Aluminum foil has good scale and speed metrics wrt manufacturing

[@thelimitingfactor]

Pretty much the same stuff, even the thickness. However, I think they put a thin coating of carbon on electrode material and it might have tighter tolerances in terms of pinholes, etc

[@Top12Boardsport]

High interest rates and inflation is still the biggest factors to keep sales lowering for all high cost items. Tesla needs the lower cost cars now. Using the 3 /Y platform is the only option and let’s hope that price gets low enough to reach mass market. Tax credit is a dealbreaker. Tax credits are a dealbreaker in many markets.

[@jamesengland7461]

Expertly pairing the dry, undiluted cathode of drawbacks with the intricate anode of benefits, Jordan's Limiting Factor is an integrated structure, powering the movement of understanding of the industry with cell-level detail, efficient packaging, anxiety shielding, and accurate data management into a wisely integrated pack of enduring value and reliability. You serve the community well, sir.

[@thelimitingfactor]

😂✊

[@hotrodandrube9119]

And he currently releases videos in series, really amping up the voltage, while insulating the shock value.

[@CC-iq2pe]

Thanks for clarifying what’s going on recently.

[@JorgeVizioli]

Hi Jordan! Tesla cannot use the 4680 cells for the M3. The platform on which it's built is not compatible with the structural pack. They could use them on the MY since it has rear and front castings. Love your work

[@thelimitingfactor]

Thanks! Incorrect though. The Model Y accepts both structural and non-structural packs. No reason they couldn't do the same with the 3.

[@budgetaudiophilelife-long5461]

👋 JORDAN ,THANK YOU AND YOUR SUPPORTERS FOR SHARING THIS 🤗🧐💚💚💚

[@thelimitingfactor]

You're always welcome!

[@jfbaro2]

Can you make a video on the advances in solid state batteries?

[@AuralioCabal]

One Tesla Exec actually said that they intend to be LESS RELIANT on outside battery suppliers, not sure how they can accomplish that as Tesla needs Batteries for everything from LFP for PowerWalls to Megapacks and cheaper versions of BEVs..

[@varbingoda]

Very disappointing to not hear any update on dry cathode from Tesla.

[@castortoutnu]

Isn't Tesla putting 4680 cells in Model Y? What happened to that?

[@thelimitingfactor]

That production line was cut over to the Cybertruck

[@castortoutnu]

@@thelimitingfactor Ooooh I see. Thanks!

[@geirtorstensrud7774]

Tesla are building a new large LFP plant south end at Giga Texas (glass house) right innfront your nose (model 2) 😂 The first cathode plant with (nca/lmno)4 lines are now under test production.🎉

[@zachlafond2652]

They could get the tax credit on LFP packs then.

[@TacoAnus]

Not one thing you said was accurate.

[@ws6002]

What about the Tesla Semi? Can Tesla produce, or buy, the batteries to support the kind of scale of production in the Semi necessary to achieve economies of scale? Or is Tesla going to withdraw these plans?

[@thelimitingfactor]

Semi factory is being built. Currently it uses the 2170

[@ws6002]

@@thelimitingfactor Thank you.

[@thosoz3431]

If that 12:08 is like the low cost Tesla it WILL wipe the floor with the other auto makers.

[@OffgridApartment]

Unrelated, but have you looked into the possibility of combining analogue computers with the AI systems in order to cut down on energy consumption? There seems to be a lot of potential here to speed up the calculations and save energy in vehicle.

[@thelimitingfactor]

I'm not sure what you mean. Compute is cheap and efficient, and getting more so each year

[@CiaranMcHale]

I am under the impression that the current FSD hardware is already fast enough for its intended purpose. In addition, my understanding is that the FSD hardware (cameras and the AI chips) are always running when the car is being driven: when the car is not being driven via FSD, FSD is running in shadow mode so it can collect data for training purposes. So if Tesla cars can already get "good enough" range with the current FSD chips and those chips are fast enough for their intended purpose, I don't see a compelling need for Tesla to switch to a completely different architecture (analogue instead of digital) for its FSD chips. Am I missing something?

[@tommckinney1489]

Thanks, Jordan. Concise and to the point as usual.

[@thelimitingfactor]

✊

[@drury2d8]

I'm surprised Tesla ignored class 2 and 3 utility vehicles based on the Model 3/Y architecture.

[@thelimitingfactor]

They're going after the largest market segments first

[@calibaba2739]

Chinese has habbit of excess production and the dumping products so Tesla is taking advantage of that。 but make sure no dumping EVs in the US. 😅

[@johntheux9238]

What's your bet for how strong the cybertruck stainless steel is? I'm betting on 1'690 MPa of tensile strength and 25% elongation at break.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Hmmm, I'll have to look into it

[@MrFoxRobert]

Thank you!

[@thelimitingfactor]

Sure thing 🤠

[@tripzero0]

How long until 3rd party mfgs can start producing 4680? CT can't ramp any more than 1k/week until 4680 ramp accelerates.

[@thelimitingfactor]

This year, but they'll be different on the inside Currently, the 4680 isn't holding up production of the C/T - I covered this in the video

[@tripzero0]

@@thelimitingfactor right. I think they are at < 1k CTs/wk with possible burts up to 1k. But CT can't get any higher without 4680. There may be other bottle necks before that, but 4680 could easily become one if something slips in the 4680 supply chain. Having a few weeks buffer is a good idea.

[@TheEvilmooseofdoom]

@@tripzero0 You missed the point. The 4680 is NOT holding up the CT ramp.

[@tripzero0]

@@TheEvilmooseofdoom you missed what I actually said. I said it easily could become the bottle neck. At 1k trucks and 1k 4680 packs per week, the ramps are now tethered. Production of trucks appears to be accelerating faster than cell production.

[@christianedelmann6880]

lol don’t hear a lot of DBE anymore haha plus that LG order for electrode sounds like the death call for DBE

[@thelimitingfactor]

Could be! That's why I need to teardown one of the cells

[@edwardr8826]

@@thelimitingfactor I doubt they're importing electrodes from korea/LG. I bet they're importing CAM from LG and then doing their DBE. Besides the pain of importing electrodes themselves they might actually be disqualified from getting battery production subsidies if they just import. Those battery production subsidies are lowkey a huge deal

[@SCIFIaction]

This is so good, thanks for that talk!

[@sanMyung]

It's dumb, Panasonic should have access to experiment with Tesla's DBE info

[@MS-gu9fy]

Great video. I am not that knowledgeable about the 4680, but your conclusions based on profitability of Tesla are really an oversimplification in my mind. Many reasons why Tesla is profitable that are not really competitive advantages. Including scale, utilization, regulatory benefits all of which are just not really durable types of advantages in this industry. EV penetration is not high enough to really see the relative competitiveness. Really hard to tell how brand loyalty will transfer onto EV, how the old carmakers will look like when fully focused on EVs. Also one thing that I don’t understand but would be curious to learn more about, if CATL makes competitive batteries how much differentiation can any OEM get when they can use CATL as supplier.

[@ahhmm5381]

What about giga casting? Thoughts?

[@thelimitingfactor]

This sounds like a corporate powerpoint presentation. What are you actually trying to say.

[@MS-gu9fy]

@@ahhmm5381 Giga casting is one example of what I don’t think is a sustainable advantage. Tesla does not manufacture the presses nor does Tesla have strong IP within that as far as I know (correct me if I am wrong). They purchase them from Idra. Now anyone can purchase from Idra like anyone can purchase from CATL. Others intend to utilize Giga casting, so while Tesla may be advantaged now and this contributes to higher profits, I don’t understand why that would be an advantage 5+ years from now.

[@MS-gu9fy]

@@thelimitingfactor Okay I will do my best to elaborate, but like I said I don’t pretend to know it is just my current understand. If Tesla has higher utilization in its factories than for example Volkswagen it will have better fixed cost absorption. But utilization can change quickly that is not a sustainable first mover advantage, unless there is a reason why that would be sustained, and utilization causes big swings in profitability. Similar for scale where there is some critical mass needed, so difficult to compare an under scaled competitor with a scaled one. But I don’t consider these things first mover advantage that creates something lasting. So, a lot of questions that impact conclusions from a profitability comparison. Are the regulatory credits similar part of profit contribution for manufacturers? If others have goodwill impairments in their numbers that makes comparability of GAAP net income not meaningful. About loyalty. Among the early adopters Tesla has a really good standing. But it is unclear to my how the brand value of the old OEMs carry over to EVs. Does the large share of consumers that are not yet in the EV market and prefer ICE think of Tesla that highly as well or do they value the old OEM brands more. Basically, I was most surprised by all these statements like “it might be too late to compete with Tesla”; “(if…) they will sweep the table” because I don’t understand what the sustainable competitive advantage of Tesla is. One advantage that could be sustainable like it has been for Apple is all the free press. But current efficiency advantages or currently higher profitability - I don’t understand why they should be extrapolated. I do like Tesla. I do like your videos. Really just about understanding where that is coming from.

[@MS-gu9fy]

​@@thelimitingfactor It sounds like (also with the 50% growth assumption and the sweep the table comments) you would think they will dominate the market in 5 years or maybe even 10 when EV penetration will be really high. And to me that would mean some really high global EV market share so significantly higher than 10 %/15%. And I just don't understand where that is coming from.

[@nftsasha]

great as always, ty

[@williampmcd8548]

Hi Jordan, off topic: please can you comment on how/when hydrogen or nuclear dovetail with TSLA? Thank you.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Good question, something I'm thinking about

[@w0ttheh3ll]

The proposed value chain for green hydrogen doesn't really overlap with any of Tesla's current or planned activities. Tesla engineers appear to have their hands full, I doubt they want to enter a completely different industry.

[@edwardr8826]

So many OEMs and battery companies are doing large cylindrical now and everybody is moving over to large format prismatic and or cylindrical. The amount of hate tesla has received for being a first mover is ridiculous

[@Alarix246]

Why don't people get it that if there is a consolidation in the Chinese EV industry underway, some factories must close, leaving a surplus of manufacturing capacity idle, and the battery makers will have a hard time to sell, hence their prices will be dumping prices, "just pay us anything so that we can survive" mode? Doesn't this feel like "the winner takes it all"? What Elon suggested in one sentence is just a minuscule hint of much bigger dramas behind the scenes. Behind the competition scenes I mean. While the silly IRA act caused striving for impossible (= building the cell factories in the USA within few months), there will be plenty of good deals for those who are ready.

[@GoCoyote]

Even if Tesla just matches supplier costs on the 4680 cells, they are coming out ahead by maintaining control over supply and gaining experience and knowledge that will help Tesla support its suppliers.

[@Cross-xm2fr]

They are making the best of a project that's way behind schedule.

[@martinbeaumier7172]

4680 is also critical to the semi truck

[@thelimitingfactor]

Currently it's using the 2170, so who knows

[@hkmp5kpdw]

Losing the tax credit on the M3 is a shame. C’mon man...

[@scanspeak00]

The success of the 480 has be MASSIVELY exaggerated.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Not sure what a 480 is

[@royh6526]

I don't agree with your assessment of Tesla's 4680 production targets. From past Tesla statements, it appears that each line at Texas is targeted to produce 5GWhr/yr not your astounding 25GWh/yr. Yes current production is 7GWhr/yr but I do not agree that this is from a single line. Tesla has at least 2 fully functional lines running at Texas and 2 more ramping up.

[@thelimitingfactor]

They said 20 GWh/yr at battery day and then increased it to 25 GWh/yr Fact, not assessment

[@royh6526]

@@thelimitingfactor Are you talking about 3 years ago? Back then Elon wanted a target of 10GWh/yr/line but that was later reduced to 5GWh/yr/line for Texas. The also talked about higher goals for multiple lines. You are applying multiple line forecasts to a single line. They also projected 100GWh/yr at Nevada but did not specify how many lines they expected to install there. There are about 20 lines at Nevada for 2170 production. Not unreasonable they would plan for 20 lines for 4680 production.

[@AuralioCabal]

Teslas GigaAustin Texas is actually producing more 4680 batteries than ever, more than CYBERTRK requirements as reported in Frst Qtr reports....more 4680 cells availability .Trolls and ANALysts dont know that Tesla is improving production rates.😊

[@dalehair2400]

Mark Twain anyone?

[@Krunch2020]

Tesla growth rate is constrained by the political ambitions of their dear leader, the slow introduction of new vehicles, and the limited exterior and interior colors and textures.

[@TheEvilmooseofdoom]

Political ambitions? What ambitions are those?

[@UpsidePotential]

Tesla next generation battery strategies are clearly struggling and we shouldnt be giving them a pass on it.

[@thelimitingfactor]

I'm not here to give a pass or not, but try to provide accurate insights and information

[@rwhirsch]

Oh God 4680 dead superchargers dead Compact Car dead. Sell sell sell¡!!!

[@thelimitingfactor]

😂