TESLA STOCK ANALYSIS - A "Zero-Growth" Company? Undervalued Now?

In this in-depth Tesla (TSLA) stock analysis video, I will discuss whether I believe Tesla is a zero-growth company or Tesla stock is undervalued now. I will explain whether Tesla will eventually recover. You will learn about Tesla's biggest headwinds and risks, Tesla's long-term growth prospects, Tesla's biggest competitive advantages and how to calculate Tesla stock's intrinsic value, so you will know when Tesla stock is undervalued, fairly valued or overvalued.
0:00 Intro
3:13 Growth Stock Portfolio Update
4:45 Tesla's Biggest Risks and Headwinds
11:30 Is Tesla a "Zero-Growth" Company? (Tesla's long-term prospects)
22:09 Tesla Stock Valuation
24:55 Will I Buy Tesla Stock?
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Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and entertainment purposes only. They should not be construed as professional financial advice. If you need such advice, please consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. You will also need to do your research. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of the information on this channel.

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

👏👏👏👏👏If you like my channel and want to support it, here is how you can help: www.patreon.com/IntelligentInvestorChannel

[@AJ-ww1ef]

this is such an excellent channel ! no hype no BS, keep it up !!! May I please ask - can you do London stocks too?

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

Thanks AJ! I only cover US stocks (mostly tech). But occasionally, I do look for the best oversea companies (eg ASML from Netherland and TSMC from Taiwan).

[@victorlim1561]

Thank you Victor! Understand your English perfectly.

[@Legola87]

I'd never thought the day will come when Victor is more bullish than me on Tesla! My intrinsic value is $220.92, $165.69 with 25% margin of safety. Though that includes a free call option on Robotaxis and Optimus. Primary assumption: Compact ramp will be delayed to 2029/30 because Elon was waiting for FSD to become robotaxi - no point selling Compact before Robotaxi. Then Elon backtracks and starts putting pedals and steering wheels in Compact, because FSD still cannot pass the Robotaxi test, circa 2029/30. And with no Robotaxi-capable FSD, no Optimus either. Basically the absolute worst-case scenario.

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

Here’s another thing we have to consider: Elon Musk might have changed Tesla’s strategy based on recent news. Initially, Tesla’s planning to start producing its $25K EV by the end of 2025. Now, Tesla may backtrack its next-gen platform, delay its $25K EV, and focus all its resources on the Robotaxi service. Hence several top executives left the company recently. And Elon will talk about Tesla’s Robotaxi on Aug 8th. He’s essentially betting entirely on Robotaxi (which is level 4 or level 5 full autonomy). This is a risky bet. The current FSD V12.3.4 is a level 2 Plus system. So I’m bearish on Tesla’s grow in the short term (this year and 2025) because Tesla will likely have zero or even negative growth. But I’m betting Tesla will eventually recover over the next several years because of lower interests rates, FSD reaching level 4 autonomy, FSD increasing Tesla’s margins, and EV demand recovering. Realistically, I don’t expect Robotaxi service and Optimus to be large revenue contributor to Tesla anytime soon.

[@barryaherne215]

Thank you for the video. Very informative! I've been very tempted by Tesla at the moment and will wait for it to drop down in value a little more. It's in a very interesting position because I think as a pure car company it is trading too high, but as a tech/AI company it's something to certainly keep an eye on, and it's tricky to balance the valuation of both and find the right entrance price. I noticed you were quite bullish on Tesla AI in your last video - are you buying Tesla now as a car company, as a tech stock, or both? Aside, I live in China, and while this is only anecdotal evidence, there are a good number of Tesla cars in big cities. It's probably the car from the West that I've seen the most, along with Mercedes and Volkswagen. It certainly has a good holding, and seems like a good brand, despite the extra tax.

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

Good question. I'm still very bullish on Tesla's long-term prospects, but I do agree that Tesla is facing many issues in the short term (e.g. lower EV demand, competition with BYD and Chinese competitors selling very cheap EVs, cutting price which will continue to hurt margins). One thing I forgot to mention is that the automobile industry is very cyclical. Right now, the EV market is going through a correction like a business cycle, but I expect EV demand will pick up again once rates are lower. I see Tesla as an AI robotics company that's mass manufacturing EVs and developing FSD autonomous driving tech now, so it's not a traditional car company. I don't we think we can compare it with the traditional car makers (e.g. GM, Ford, Toyota, or even Volkswagen, Porsche).

[@boratsmagadijev940]

Not intrested in Tesla but great video as always.

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

Thanks for watching though!

[@kevinlove3496]

Does that mean we should wait till the price to drop more before end of the year then load up ?

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

I think it depends on how much you understand Tesla’s business, whether you’re comfortable buying it, and your risk tolerance/investment time frame. I think just stick with what you know (not speculate), do enough research, and always buy with a good margin of safety to reduce risks. No one can really predict stock prices, but we can estimate the stock’s intrinsic value so we will know when to buy the dip when it’s undervalued, and when to sell when it’s overvalued.

[@eddiegill]

Byd makes $1000 on most of its EVs. Tesla will benefit from cheaper batteries and lithium prices crashing

[@alexwong8851]

I don’t foresee BYD overtaking Tesla. Tesla's primary advantage lies in its strong brand name and high-quality products. There have been reports of BYD cars catching fire and exploding. Also, I can see more countries imposing tariffs and restrictions on BYD due to concerns about dumping and deteriorating relations with the CCP. As more countries pull out of China, they're likely to have less money to support Chinese companies, which could further impede BYD's growth.

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

Yeah, it’s very hard to know right now. The biggest reason BYD’s EV sales growth is higher than Tesla is that BYD sells very cheap EVs and many more EV models and still make a profit selling them at much lower prices than Model 3 and Y. BYD’s car qualities are likely not as good. The Chinese market is saturated with too many EVs + the Chinese economy is not doing well, so these Chinese EV companies have to expand oversea and flood other countries with their cheap EVs. Only high tariffs & trade barriers can stop Chinese EV makers like BYD from flooding the European market and the US market with very cheap EVs. I think CCP’s subsidies are giving a huge advantage to the Chinese EV makers. How can they continue selling cheap EVs below their costs? Over the long run, I do expect the EV market will recover once the Chinese economy gets better, interest rates are lower, and cheaper costs to produce EVs. Chinese EV makers are extremely good in mass manufacturing cars (much better than the Western automakers).

[@alexwong8851]

@@TheIntelligentInvestor I agree, you bring up a lot of good points. I guess we will have a better idea once rates start to go down. Other risks I see for tesla is that they heavily rely on the Chinese market to buy their cars and also have a factory in Shanghai. The Chinese economy is not doing well and the government can make it more difficult for Tesla to do business in China at any time they choose.

[@markwhite8332]

Do you anticipate Tesla making substantial profits from their charging stations

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

Nope, it's a very small business for Tesla.

[@c-loversbeat2453]

Usa never let Chinese company to get USA data car et vice versa

[@RamJamSky]

operating margin is NOT comparable to other electric vehicle manufacturers! Only Tesla is making a profit on them and at the same time, is driving the market lower making it nearly impossible to sustainably compete. Even BYD would not compete if it wasn’t for the Chinese government. Note that BYD margin includes plugin vehicles.

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

We have to compare Tesla’s operating margin with the legacy car makers too (not just the pure EV makers where most of them loss a lot of money for every EV they sell). BYD is the only company that can make profits consistently selling EVs like Tesla. But I think BYD and the other Chinese EV makers get a lot of subsidies from the government; otherwise how do they sustain their EV business selling EVs below their costs?

[@RamJamSky]

@@TheIntelligentInvestormaybe in the short term, I think we are likely in a transition period where nearly all vehicles sold in 10 years will be BEV

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

Yeah we have to be patient. The legacy car makers are going backward. They know they can’t compete with the Chinese EV makers and Tesla in BEV, so they’re pushing for hybrid plugin vehicles instead of BEV because they can make a lot more money from hybrid vehicles. In the long run, I think it’ll be BEV vs plugin vehicles. I don’t think BEV can take 100% of the auto market. But autonomous vehicles (level 4 or 5 autonomy) will eventually be the norm.

[@jongsheen7606]

Everyone knows about the past, talk about the future.

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

Bruh you didn’t even watch the video (eg expected vehicle delivery number this year, FSD V12, level 4/5 full autonomy, next-gen platform, expected growth rates).

[@u.w.sunitedwestand2117]

Do not give these ev companies your freedom and this type of control people don't do it you don't see what they are planning? Neuro link chips in the palms robotics flipping burgers this isn't cute! THINK 🤔 HUMANS WILL GROW TO OBSOLETE!

[@AF-xt6xk]

No offence your English …. Very hard to understand

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

Sorry my friend, but there is subtitle.

[@sitarang07]

It’s actually pretty easy to follow and understand

[@singed8853]

Your English is generally good for me. Most of it is clear and easy to listen to. You seem to mush together a couple words here and there speaking fast. Overall you maybe speak a little too fast too consistently is my only real critique. I know you aren’t asking for this kind of feedback. My main point is you don’t need to change anything in my view. Thanks for the video.

[@TheIntelligentInvestor]

Thx I’ll slow slow down more in my future videos.

[@graigfaison9568]

English is a second language for me. I perfectly understand what you say. Yes, you have an accent but the words are understandable. Keep doing what you’re doing