The 2021 Housing Crash Theory Explained

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

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[@Martin-Young]

Malcolm, the only point where I disagree with you in this video is, that there will not be that many buyers. 1.) The real unemployment is approx. 40%. 2.) Anticipated buyers will have trouble coming down with a decent down payment. 3.) Banks are already tightening up on their lending standards, which they learned from the 2008 Housing Crash. Therefore, there will be a shortage of "qualified buyers" and a large inventory of houses in about 4-5 years from now. It took 4 years for the last housing crash to recover. This crash will most likely take 5-7 years to recover. Let's see you in 5 years...

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

Yeah, that is an interesting argument about the high unemployment rate. But, as of right now, there are a high number of buyers despite that high unemployment number and the number of unemployed is only going down as states open back up.

[@moderntime4523]

I think the market houses is at the top right now

[@0529mpb]

@@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR What you are missing is that unemployment has mostly affected renters and that is changing. It will be changing really fast after October 1 when the Fed assistance to airlines, ect. stops. High earners in the airline, hotel and related travel industries will start losing their jobs. This will definitely ripple into other industries as overall spending decreases. You are also going to see companies that took a big hit in earnings laying off workers to help fourth quarter numbers. It takes months for a big corporations to plan and execute big white collar layoffs. We won't really know where we stand until next April. You are too focused on the supply side instead of looking at the FOMO side of a demand spike. A big percentage of people buying now are going to be sending the keys back after about 18 to 24 months.

[@HooliTV]

im in las Vegas. I'm going to be patient its coming. 🌊

[@springer-qb4dv]

Yes LV housing market without a doubt will be hit hard

[@lawofattractionc61]

low interest rate higher price of home .. higher property tax ... smh .. .people are so dumb

[@TuansReef]

Yeah its all a wash. People are actually spending more money vs when interest rates were higher.

[@lawofattractionc61]

@@TuansReef yup also higher house insurance and mortgage insurance

[@hurleywilson7246]

As far as a primary residence if you remain employed, not a bad idea to buy rather than rent. Best middle ground. You are OK in the long term. As far as purely investment/not live in, a lot more variables.

[@Chadisms]

This is what caused the 08 highs. You better love the home cause you’re stuck.

[@Morbidzero]

@@Chadisms No, 08 caused because of sub prime mortgages, banks gave out loans to people with no jobs, no money, bad credit..now banks have tightened their policies and only people who have good jobs and 700+ credit scores plus 20% down are able to get loans.

[@ChristianC-gy1ym]

Well if 2008 taught us anything, it's to not panic. The market will recover and come back even stronger. It's almost easy to believe that these housing market or stock market and other markets crashing are by design. Whether that's true or not, it won't change the fact that if you're prepared you can survive another crash. In fact if you're really prepared you might even benefit from the crash. As for me, I'm not going to worry about the value of my house tanking because I don't plan on selling anytime soon. I don't have an ARM and I live below my means. And if the market does crash I'll be prowling for an investment property. Preferably some sort of cash flow rental.

[@markanderson77]

THe market isn't getting stronger. The government is destroying the dollar.

[@ChristianC-gy1ym]

@@markanderson77 everything was brilliantly engineered. Since Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. The Fiat currency system, with the dollar as the reserve, made many generations of elites rich. The system is designed to fail. It was never meant to last forever. It's a get rich quick scheme. Except in this case "quick" indicates a few generations but in the grand scheme of things that is not a long time. The next phase of this project is to globalize the world's economy and unify it. Total control and oversight.

[@Chadisms]

The real estate cycle always happens. My friends house in South Florida is finally back to 500,000 again after 14 years.

[@troyelam8978]

In your video you say when interest rates were at 4% you could only afford to buy a $420,000 home, if you wanted your payment to be $2000 a month. Now that interest rates are 3%, you can afford to buy a $470,000 home for the same $2000 a month. That’s great, but what you’re leaving out is that $420,000 home has now risen to $470,000. So nothing changed. The lower interest rates only help if the housing prices stay the same, which they don’t. At least not here in California.

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

So I actually don't think they have risen by $50,000 in value YET. Because probably 90% of home sales have to pass an appraisal based on past home sales, it puts a cap on quickly home values can go up and in my opinion, at least here in Maryland, home values have not stopped climbing yet. They will reach an equilibrium eventually, but not yet.

[@troyelam8978]

Malcolm Lawson - REALTOR I don’t know. You can take one look at Zillow in the Southern California area, even in a place like Riverside California, that is not even consider to be a premier city, and you will see just how fast the home prices are jumping. It’s pretty scary. Just last week I qualified for $460,000 and it’s literally not enough to get anything more than a condo, and even then you won’t be getting the number 3 model! LOL.

[@Tyler-by7zz]

@@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR Yes, in the Chicagoland area I have literally seen house prices rise 10 to 15 percent in just the last 2 to 3 months. I think appraisals are coming in higher and also the wealthy people swoop in and dont mind paying the extra 20k plus for the difference. All decent houses are selling for way above list price and they were already high to begin with.

[@jasonmarch1983]

Um one thing all of you guys forget to mention is we are entering deflation and a solvency crisis the Bond market shows it. Interest rates will keep dropping and deflation spirals. Money tightens and there is less money going around. Look at Japan specifically Tokyo real estate 1989 much of the market has still not reached highs from then. Think buyers and banks not just inventory. Where will the money come from if everything falls apart. Why are bank and financial stocks so depressed if everything is rosey?

[@JM-ol7kb]

You are a smart man, this is what I tell people and they look at me like they are the ones with a mortgage license lol I rather just shhhhh

[@markanderson77]

Umm. Monetary policy isn't being tightened. The Fed has been absolutely promiscuous, and it is all that inflation the Fed has created that has driven down interest rates. I don't why you think artificially low interest rates are a reason to be bullish on the dollar.

[@markanderson77]

And don't confuse rising prices with everything being well. That's just it. The Fed has created so much inflation, it has undermined the loan market (i.e. the financial sector). Yes. All those cheap dollars you think makes you wealthy are undermining you, too. The economy is being undermined with cheap money.

[@JM-ol7kb]

@@markanderson77 the US economy is shooting itself on the foot. If they just help everyone one then what is economy ? Everything thought to us was BS. Shit I should have maxed out my credit cards and bought a mansion 😂 fed would bail me out anyways 🤷🏽‍♂️

[@jasonmarch1983]

@@markanderson77 you are confusing inflation of financial assets from low interest with consumer price inflation. Currently we are in disinflation (our inflation is going down) newest report just showed again this week current 1.2%. All credit lending in the economy is contracting including real estate last I looks it went 8 billion negative for this month. These are not good signs. Also by tightening I mean banks with loan standards (this is why we are seeing deflation in the credit loan sectors). The fed can't make money only reserves (M1) banks make broad money (m2) if there is not enough credit no growth = stagnation / deflation no or slow recovery. Demand will either continue to wither until it is weaker then the constrained supply or the fed will force bond yields down allowing banks to have more profit willing to take on more risk for credit expansion. Remember the majority or dollars are debt not real if credit isn't expanding we are deflating.

[@moneymanfernando1594]

So the title of the video says that there is a coming housing crash in 2021 but in the video you say that there is no crash coming. I think there is a good chance of a housing crash either later this year or next year.

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[@Augydoggie]

Since “everyone” is predicting it, it’s not gonna happen

[@mahdigolkaram5342]

One thing those who want to wait till next year for prices to drop and then buy forget to consider is that in California, rental value of a 800K house is about 45-50K a year (4000/mo for a 4 bedroom) and that is besides the tax write offs you get by owning a house which can be another 10-20K. So waiting for year to buy a house means you automatically lost 6-7% of the value of your house no question asked meaning that even if house prices drop 6-7% in a year, you will still end up breaking even and that is assuming Fed does not increase the rates. More emphasize on that 6-7% is a guaranteed loss on rental value in contrast to 6-7% "predicted" drop.

[@MotoM1234]

The economy was turned off and we are getting a boom in every market.... so confusing.

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

Right? It's all artificial. Once the fed stops printing money and raises interest rates, this mirage will end.

[@springer-qb4dv]

@@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR And when will that happen? Say inflation spikes - will FED keep printing money? No, Paul Volker is not coming back from grave to save US. You might be right that FED will keep printing money and take us right into hyperinflation. In that case, nominal housing price will never drop.

[@kirkworthley378]

I don't exactly disagree that there won't be a "crash" however I think there will be downward pressure on prices for years to come. The FED can still lower rates...but not by much. Banks are already tightening lending standards which will limit new buyers. Similarly, rents are dropping in major cities as ppl look to relocate to the suburbs. This dispraportionally impacts younger people and 1st time home buyers. While it's true you won't see a wave of forclosures due to processing limitations, you will see a ton of short sales.

[@Motivation66667]

*Yes the market is so hot in South Florida , so many offers/buyers , and yes I hope people will be able to work things with banks as you mentioned and there won’t be so many foreclosures 🙏🏻🙏🏻*

[@anitaluevano9643]

Were did you buy a house

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

Maryland of course!

[@gsmith5140]

Great information. I was referred to you by Kristina Smallhorn as I am interested in purchasing a manufactured home but need somewhere to put the home; I live in Washington County Maryland. I would like to purchase land vs. renting it, but am flexible if I can find a NICE area to rent. :) Your help is greatly appreciated. Thank you.

[@gerogep3666]

Congrats on the home purchase. I think real-estate will have a hard time going forward.

[@arrrryyy]

So they’ll will be avalanche of foreclosures but it won’t affect pricing and higher inventory won’t matter and .. more buyers will come into picture even if unemployment and economic hardship? Even if banks will try to make a deal with borrowers many would like to downsize - smaller economy, higher unemployment cannot keep housing prices high.

[@josej-h1471]

I purchased my home back in 2017, purchased points and got my interest 0.063% on a 30 yr mortgage.

[@badactor3440]

I think you meant to type 4.063% unless you purchased 3 points

[@josej-h1471]

Bad Actor I meant 0.063%, I believe interest was 3.25 so yes I purchased down that much in points. I only pay $8 in interest every month .

[@zitawillingham4391]

Can you do a video on low inventory no one can sell cause no one can buy I would sell it I could find a home that I dont have to get into a bidding war over

[@anitaluevano9643]

What do you think of property in oxnard do you think its worth buying a house there

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

I don't know where that is 🤷‍♂️

[@roadrunnerandfriends3108]

The housing market is going to end up for rich people only. The rest will be payment poor, homeless or living with family. It's quite disgraceful... As unemployment grows and another 1.1 million more people lost their jobs last week.. SMH whoever is cheering this on

[@yvettesdavis]

Depends on where people live. Already that way in California.

[@Csdc20]

Crooked lending is back in full force. Just recently, a relative purposely overbid on a property by 40k. Make long story shorty, they went to escrow. Loan officer who works for a big name bank told my relatives no need for an appraisal just sign the waiver. ..unbelievable, I see the mother of all bubble coming.

[@shujayethossain6554]

Hi! I live in Brooklyn,NY. I’m 26 year-old, drive for Uber and makes around $6k monthly and I don’t have any debt. My credit score is 740. I am thinking of buying a $1 million two family house in NY. Do you think I can get a mortgage with that income? Will adding a co-signer who has another $50k income help? Thank you!

[@Radnally]

20% of forebearances are not in financial trouble. But the other 80% will need to be employed in the next 6 months. Inventory will only rise if people panic about prices topping. Or those unemployed forebearnces need money. Both not too likely. After all this gov intervention fades, those still not working will be the ones defaulting. How many? Hard to say, but odds are it will be a normal recession that will be the usual downward pressure on home prices. I doubt a crash will happen.

[@mango4ttwo635]

people don't pay rent, landlords want to get out, supply jumps (That is lagging, but coming), and that will drive prices down. Desperate central banks want int rates extremely low to keep the bubble going. But if the principle is no longer payable because so many are gonna lose incomes, then even ultra low rates will not keep demand high. Supply will rise, demand will fall. Gravity will eventually work. One thing is true, keeping your money in "cash" with a 1% yield is for the birds: Gold, silver, bitcoin will be the long term winners.

[@derekbarcial6358]

The banks not requiring the homeowner to make up 12 months of delinquent payments is not for forgiveness .. it is a deferral...

[@aliabdoli425]

Bank ld nt be a bottleneck mate. ppl will sell if it s getting close to the end of mortgage holiday and high rise in the sales

[@robbycast]

Record high unemployment (higher than the Great Depression). Ridiculously high quantitative easing (leads to higher inflation). Average Salary can not afford average price of house. most ppl do not have savings capability nor the capital for a decent down payment. Again, record high unemployment. what do you have to say to all that?

[@nielsbeck7461]

In canada we cannot get a 30 yr mortgage. The longest we can get is a 10 yr mortgage. Then we have to refinance again. More risky then in the usa.

[@JigglyPuffMafia]

There’s also an eviction crisis to worry about.

[@badactor3440]

4 reasons why the real estate market is not going to crash like it did in 2008 and is potentially headed for unprecedented gains; 1) Record low interest rates that continue to fall....interest rates were double in 2008 2) Critically low inventory that continues to fall....market was way over supplied in 2008 3) 12 trillion in home equity that continues to rise.....equity wealth was much lower in 2008 4) Investor capital pouring into the market (REIT's).....investment capital was lower in 2008 As a result of massive capital injection by central banks around the world, values could potentially double again before the decade is over. There has never been a better time to buy (or own) real estate. If you are in a position to purchase, by all means do so. In the current, ultra low interest rate environment, residential real estate is by far the best investment available.

[@erikunixarias]

I do not care about the interest in the long run. I care about the health of the economy.

[@truckersagainsttrafficking7550]

Also we have to take Covid into account. I dont think it is going anywhere for years and that will eventually decimate the market.

[@GhostTraderz]

Multiple offers over asking= disaster

[@jinbillion]

Right on the money. Excellent analysis!

[@Jack-russell103]

I agree no housing crash coming

[@salamander5318]

This guy has no idea what he's talking about. He thinks sticking the missed payments on the end of your loan fixes everything. He doesn't even know about Boomer Homeowners dying off by the tens of millions soon. He doesn't understand that there are other expenses such as property taxes, utilities, repairs, and maintenance, etc. Has he looked at the price of groceries lately? How does he expect tens of millions jobless or underemployed homeowners for pay their mortgage. Does he think they prioritize their mortgage over paying for food? As soon as housing prices start falling, millions of homeowners who can pay their mortgage will abandon ship on top of those that can't. Rents are falling incredibly fast in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, etc. Soon it will make much more sense for homeowners to get out of their expensive mortgage, pay very low rents instead and put their equity in gold, stocks, and other investments

[@davidjewett112]

Banks are not your friend. Keep that in mind!

[@SuperQdaddy]

Not a crash..maybe more realistic...because prices are 30% overpriced in my opinion

[@robinbobin4127]

What else a realtor will tell?

[@ownsilver]

Every real estate agent and car lot salesmen always uses the selling pitch, right now is the best time to buy there has never been a better time to buy then right now agents use these catch phrases lowest interest ever houses values always go up unlike wages, so they lower the interest rates to help the financially illiterate get into a house at 6,7,8 times annual earnings we just throw the old rules out that says that buying a house at 3 to 4 times annual earnings no longer apply's, risk on is the method we now use, foreclosures are becoming the new normal

[@hongmajeska4918]

So many people talked about the housing crash this year or next year, but I didn't think so, especially with President Trump second term. And if it does, I don't think it would be in the level of 2008. I totally agree with you and we are ready for buying our new home at any time we find the right one. Thank you for sharing.

[@marialaurel6440]

Are you for real??? The economy is collapsing and you're pushing home buying. If people fall for this crap they deserve being wiped out. Do the opposite save as much as you can, buy gold and silver, prep with food and all that you'll be needing. This guy is a realtor he has to push home buying.

[@Alex-ui3sx]

USA Look like japan in 1992

[@tattie278]

Wishful thinking from a realtor (as we all know realtors never talk the market up and are absolutely trustworthy) 😆😆😆😆.

[@WanderingWolf365]

You're right, I don't see a housing crash in the next 4-5 years. It's simple: Don't fight the Fed. - WW

[@patrickqb8]

This guys must be a real estate agent. Ignorant or a liar, Im not sure which. You cant assume the he does in the video. No numbers, no data, no historical review. There will be a correction just like always has happened from the begining of time. Buckle up!

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

What do you mean "must be a real estate agent"? My channel name literally says "REALTOR"! So based on your keen detective skills and attention to detail, what do you predict is going to happen to the real estate market?

[@michaelvrbanac6923]

BS.

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

how so?