The Conservatives are headed for a "superdefeat" | Election 2024 | The New Statesman

[@nickinthefield4202]

The harder the tories are hammered the better. Their party has become a disgrace..

[@julianshepherd2038]

Question is, who comes second and gets to hold the hammer.

[@randomstuff9005]

You mean hammered-like in lockdown with the parties?

[@Boghopper9999]

​@@Viper91157which freedoms have you lost buddy? Curious to know which bit of legislation it is that you have the most concerns about?

[@WIlfredWibbles]

@@Boghopper9999 Oh well, as you're asking. Let's see. There's the fact that if you want to protest now you have to ask the police if they'll allow you to protest beforehand. There's the fact that in court you are not allowed to choose your own defence. You are explicitly forbidden by the courts to even mention certain things as a defence for something you did - and if you even mention it, then it's contempt of court and prison. There's the fact that the government now legislates to force the courts to believe the world is different to how the world actually is. The courts are forced to treat Rwanda as though it is a safe country even though, by any reasonable standard, it is not. There is the fact that the government routinely tries to conceal and bury facts that don't suit them and couples this with deliberately lying, knowing full well that it won't be reported on by their mates in the right wing press and that they can simply get away with it. That's just a sample, there's lots more. Are those the sort of freedoms you're talking about ?

[@keithdonnelly8636]

​@@Boghopper9999freedom of Movement

[@RH1812]

All we can say is, if the Conservative Party loses a vast number of seats, they brought it on themselves.

[@kennethhodges3187]

Right on! The Conservatives are the architects of their own downfall!

[@Fredric_Cedrich]

My only concern is after the election, if the Conservatives are in third place with less than 50 seats they’ll still be treated as the official opposition by the media. They’ll still be on Question Time 100% of the time. They’ll still have their shitty columns in the rags & they’ll still have their low viewership shows on dead channels.

[@olivercuenca4109]

I very much doubt it. If they're no longer the leading party of the opposition, nobody will give a damn.

[@Fredric_Cedrich]

@@olivercuenca4109 that’s what I mean. I don’t think The Sun, Telegraph or Mail can just adapt to a political landscape like that.

[@nathangriffiths6218]

@@olivercuenca4109 I draw your attention to the amount of time media give to Nigel Farage despite up until very recently not even being involved.

[@therealrobertbirchall]

And you can be sure Fartage will be all over the media giving his nasty unwanted opinion. No matter who wins the election.

[@Steviebond2]

That's why media reform is desperately needed.

[@MrGavinBoyd]

Worst government of my lifetime.

[@JeffDavies-i8q]

Don't know your age (too much of a gentleman(!) to ask) I am 71 so my political awareness starts with Harold Wilson - I did know about Harold McMillan and Alec Douglas Home but vaguely. So I have seen some changes but I completely agree even allowing for the national disaster of Thatcher these people have done an immense amount of damage to this country nationally and on the international stage. We have sidelined ourselves in the last 14 years.

[@maccagrabme]

Maybe yours but we've experienced even worse, both Tory and Labour, do you not remember New Labour left the country in such a mess that the Tories had to come in and clean up and enforce a decade of austerity?

[@bigmeltie1]

Thatcher was the worst and I remember Harold McMillan and on. Thatcher destroyed our industrial base and sold our public concerns off just for profit - no benefit - look at trains and buses now and heavy engineering barely exists.

[@chrisc448]

​@@maccagrabmeIn fairness there was a global economic meltdown. Blaming Labour for that is like blaming the Tories for COVID. Iraq was what did for Blair, Brown was a poor successor.

[@MrShikaga]

@@maccagrabme Things were nowhere near as bad in 2010 as they are now. And the real difference is that in 2010, there was massive hope for the future. After Brexit we know things are going to keep getting a lot worse before they get better, and all the next government can do is to try and limit the damage. On the plus side, at least the Tories never took us into an illegal war based on lies that made me ashamed to be British.

[@Magnasword2]

No Tory seats should remain.

[@WIlfredWibbles]

Oh no. I'd like Rish ! to be the ONLY Tory seat...

[@nosuchthingasshould4175]

@@WIlfredWibblesthis would be wonderful. Then he buggers off to California.

[@fightthepowerman]

No Tory should remain. Political parties aren't banks or restaurants. It's bad to have the second oldest political party in the world.

[@aryansharma7824]

So while the whole of Europe is moving Right, the voters in the UK are moving Left, voting for a party that was against Brexit. So what was the point of Brexit? Hope you will be ready to welcome those people coming in on boats in even larger numbers. Its like cutting your nose to spite your face.

[@snowyowel7961]

​@@userfile007Boris had the whole of the biased remainer media against him who spent months and months and months trying to stir the public against him.

[@andymellor9056]

The time for change isn't now, it's well overdue...

[@realitywins9020]

ZERO SEATS ZERO SEATS ZERO SEATS ZERO SEATS ZERO SEATS ZERO SEATS

[@jackrainbow560]

I don't think its very likely, but if its ever going to be zero, this is the election for it. NET ZERO seats.

[@Jessjoe1956]

Sunak is a proven liar, the last thing our country needs is a proven liar, we all saw how that worked out with Johnson.

[@chriswatson3464]

Starmer is a proven liar. "Jeremy Corbyn is a friend, 10 pledges, unite the Labour party" all lies.

[@jaisriram295]

Yet you are voting for a serial liar like Starmer 😂😂😂

[@flabbybum9562]

The wages of betrayal, paid in full.

[@SplitFinn]

That’s a really cold way of putting it. I like it.

[@loftythesoftie8857]

Also there’s a big push for tactical voting this time to get the tories out

[@tonyb9735]

Indeed. I fully anticipate voting "Not Tory" for the foreseeable future.

[@TheWonderingEnglishman]

Screw Labour and Screw the Conservatives.

[@oitoitoi1]

what did labour do?

[@decoyfox]

I don't want to live under one party rule, but the Tories deserve 3rd place, hope it's the lib Dems in opposition rather than reform

[@happyChappy96621]

Reform won’t win more than 2-3 seats. They’ll get a lot of votes for sure but it won’t equate to them being the opposition. Lib Dem’s are the most realistic opposition

[@puoesseremostrato1584]

Please 🙏 please 🙏 please 🙏 (let it be let it be let it be)

[@nosuchthingasshould4175]

It occurred to me that in order to ensure that the Tories are reduced to third place, not only do the Lib Dem’s in Tory v Labour marginals need to vote tactically for Labour , but Labour voters in Labour v Lib Dem marginals need to vote Lib Dem. There aren’t many of those, and Labour victory is going to be massive anyway. They can afford to be generous if it ensures pushing Tories into third place.

[@jaybo8136]

The reform party,the Liberal party want to rejoin the EU

[@BJWT1047]

Reform will be lucky to get 2 seats.

[@MarkInOxford]

That scale of defeat really is super.

[@adamsimmons631]

Rishi Soon-Sacked...... 🤞

[@happyChappy96621]

I’m honestly so tired of hearing Snuak talk about how he doesn’t want to talk about the past but brings up furlough every opportunity he gets You did the right thing Snuak, you shouldn’t be applauded for doing the right thing.

[@annepoitrineau5650]

I also strongly suspect that he did it because "comparable countries" were doing it, and he understood he could not be the odd one out, but I will not forget eat out to help out, and we must all remember that, although the UK started to vaccinate earlier, they still had higher death ratio than "comparable countries".

[@jaisriram295]

​@@annepoitrineau5650and that has nothing to do with the fact that millions in this country just ignored the mask mandates and social distancing mandates including my own sister who still had a birthday party for her 1 year old with about 20 guests 😂 the lack of personal responsibility in this country is frightening

[@GeoffWoad]

He does that because he thinks everyone else is stupid and can't think critically.

[@annepoitrineau5650]

Moreover, he talks as if he had been the only one to come up with that plan: most European countries had furlough too. They spent less money though because they were not conned by Dido Harding oder Mrs Mone. In my opinion, he agred to furlough solely because "comparable countries" were already doing it.

[@annepoitrineau5650]

@@GeoffWoad Moreover, he talks as if he had been the only one to come up with that plan: most European countries had furlough too. They spent less money though because they were not conned by Dido Harding oder Mrs Mone. In my opinion, he agred to furlough solely because "comparable countries" were already doing it.

[@mikesully110]

They need to go the way of the Whigs. A party only history buffs will have heard of

[@GeoffWoad]

Well, they're the Liberal Party, who have been the LibDems for thirty-something years.

[@paulyneskipsey]

We need a good turn out it’s not in the bag until it’s in the bag. Make sure you’re registered to vote and turn up. Speak up 👌

[@zoegenevieveperry8663]

John Curtice’s crown under threat. A brilliant, assured analysis.

[@julianshepherd2038]

How many elections does he remember?

[@TheIdlesurfer]

John Curtice is hugely overrated.

[@lindacurrie8817]

Can't be overrated when John is always correct with his analysis.

[@adrianthoroughgood1191]

You said that the 20mph limt applies to the vast majority of roads, but that isn't correct. It only applies to the roads in built up areas that used to be 30. The rural roads are still 60, or whatever they were before. Large roads in urban areas that had a 40 limit are also excluded. People opposing making seat belts compulsory, but it was still the right thing to do.

[@johngalvin3124]

It's also a ploy to stop Labour voters bothering to vote

[@MrDisasterboy]

Thise Green promises sound great and achievable. :-)

[@KD-wm5po]

Tactical voting is the way to go. The Lib Dems would be the Party in Opposition. This would mean they would get media coverage and presence, and the Conservatives would just be in the background.

[@andymellor9056]

If this were true how come Farage gets so much media attention and the greens don't? 🤔

[@Clare0116]

The Lib Dems haven't got a credible manifesto, they want to rejoin the EU, they have a lot of loony woke policies and no charismatic, trustworthy Leader!

[@matt_cummins28]

Very useful and helpful analysis. Thank you both.

[@pip1723]

Good they've made a terrible mess of the country the level of incompetence is staggering.

[@hypsyzygy506]

Not just incompetence Criminality.

[@jaisriram295]

​@@hypsyzygy506 stop being so over dramatic FFS get a grip you are still living in pure luxury in comparison to the majority of the world

[@TerryLerris]

A vote for Tory or labour is a dangerous future

[@nicks4934]

Eh?😂

[@oitoitoi1]

lol why? the only genuinely dangerous party is reform.

[@reuben8140]

4:10 I want to sit down with these people for a chat, are they accelerationists? lol

[@JoelCornah]

A couple of polls have put the Lib Dems getting more seats than the Tories (according to Electoral Calculus, other models are available). Unlikely as it is, if the Lib Dems come second in seats, but third or fourth in popular vote, would that make the First Past the Post system look a bit silly?

[@pastyman001]

LibDems normally do far worse under FPTP, but the Tory voter broad spread makes their seat numbers collapse when they get to low 20 percents.

[@nugstendo]

even with the seats they are projected to win, they would still be underrepresented compared to their vote share, I believe the highest had them winning 11% of the seats with 15% of the vote

[@zeddeka]

I think FPTP has looked silly for an awfully long time. If we go back to the 1951 election, labour got more votes than the Conservatives and yet the Conservatives won. Fast forward to February 1974 and the position was reversed - The Conservatives got more votes but ended up with fewer seats than Labour.

[@Philsmahsmchjsb]

FPTP isn 't meant to be representative in that way. It's meant to produce strong majorities. I'm not voting Lab but i'm pleased there will be a gov with a strong majority.

[@gerardmackay8909]

When we had two main parties and the Liberals a very distant third in the 1950s you could kind of justify FPTP but the Liberal resurgence in the 60s, yet getting no extra seats, was a travesty. I was a child in 1974 but my earliest political memory is of Jeremy Thorpe furious that with 6 million votes they got 12 seats. Fifty years later with several parties with millions of supporters but no seats, it’s even worse. However for the first time ever it looks like the Tories could be hung out to dry by FPTP. Perhaps finally they will change their tune and stop stonewalling PR.

[@Bodie-Boy]

"When France sneezes, the rest of Europe catches cold." ~Metternich

[@ian38018a]

No longer true

[@gartut200]

200 year old quote that no longer has any basis in reality. At the moment if the colonies sneeze France goes into seizure

[@therealrobertbirchall]

Things can only get better. Once these public schoolboys are consigned to the dustbin of history.

[@MorningtonCrescent]

Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor here (formerly Sedgefield). Labour's Strickland will comfortably trounce Howell in this seat, so I can indulge myself with the LDs. Labour don't need my vote, despite the typical late narrowing and the risk of taking the Labour momentum for granted.

[@annepoitrineau5650]

It could not happen to nicer people. Tories out. I just hope they find the door quickly, they have form failing to find their way out of a paperbag.

[@timsimmons5953]

Jolly good too.

[@danremenyi1179]

We are making a big deal of a politician telling the truth. This is something to be noted.

[@PxThucydides]

In the 1993 Canadian Federal election the ruling Conservative party in Canada won two seats. Looking like a similar outcome for Britain this year.

[@nickinthefield4202]

🤞

[@maccagrabme]

Ever recovered?

[@charlesbruggmann7909]

@@maccagrabme The 🇨🇦 Tories merged with (were taken over by) a right-wing protest party called “Reform”. Nigel F knows the story.

[@ianhines2302]

@@maccagrabmeCanadian Tories are predicted to win the next election in a landslide so yes they’ve recovered

[@davidtaylor747]

@@maccagrabme Nope, it was never a force in Canadian politics again. A different party used a similar name after absorbing the broken rump, though. Is that what you mean? Can you guess which party gave birth to the party which absorbed it? Give you a clue. Begins with R.

[@Visherex]

Love the realistic analysis in a real shitstorm of an election

[@OrangeUtan1]

80? That many?

[@rserserserse]

Really good analysis!

[@JackGladstoneHolroyde]

I opted to subscribe to the new statesman due to the quality of this journalism over the last few months. However I'm baffled that this is available on youtube and as a podcast with ads and it's not yet published on the paid new statesman app?

[@HskyHardcan]

Because it's gleeful Tory bashing that should be free for everyone to see?

[@JackGladstoneHolroyde]

@@HskyHardcan yeah it should be free for all but I'd appreciate getting the HD/ad free versions that I'd paid for at least *at the same time* as the KZbin version. Otherwise what's the point in the app at all?

[@KD-wm5po]

If you subscribe to KZbin you won’t see any ads.

[@gorwelroberts7012]

There is no 20mph on the ‘massive majority of Wales’s roads’, neither is there a ‘massive majority’ against 20mph’.

[@jayjayaseelan7441]

Wait until the eggs are hatched.

[@mattspintosmith5285]

Thank you for confirming that rural Suffolk is the back of beyond. You do know Ed Sheeran lives here right? :) (MS. Framlingham, Suffolk)

[@FranzBieberkopf]

The pincer movement? Both left and right are acknowledging Labour will win.

[@calumbishop7082]

I think the pincer movement more refers to the Tories losing seats to the Lib Dems and Reform UK. The remaining centre-centre right Tory voters are off to vote Lib Dem, and the more hard right-far right Tory voters are off to vote Reform. Leaving the actual Tories with nothing. At least that's the theory.

[@johngalvin3124]

Dangerous for Labour. Its designed to stop Labour voters bothering to turn out.

[@senanur1983]

80 seats? Should be zero.

[@snowyowel7961]

❤R❤E❤F❤O❤R❤M❤ 🌟🌟NIGEL🌟 FARAGE 🌟🌟 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@josephhoward3558]

Rishi is trying his absolute hardest not to become re-elected.

[@PricelessJesus]

Hmm good point

[@josephhilditch8792]

Zero seats

[@tonyharpur8383]

Hopefully the full flush of 000 Tory seats!

[@lepetitchat123]

Tories, then labour... the meaningless cycle continues. Why I have never voted in my life.

[@running4fun863]

I just want a Party/Government that will improve the situation of GB/UK. I love the GB/UK, I have lived in Canada, Australia , France and always return home because we have everything and there is there is so much potential of us being great nation again. We just need the right Party that is concerned for the country not themselves and their Wealth. We need to be great again.

[@karlos543]

Come on Nigel!

[@paulcookies]

"cheesed off!"

[@polarisnorth4875]

I pray this is true

[@pastyman001]

A "Labour Supermajority" is suggestive of Starmer as a robotic but modest super hero who offers minimal solutions to massive problems to the sound of "things can-only-get (slightly) better"

[@Josh2312-v5n]

80 seats for them ist 80 to much

[@tobylynch]

It's Country first and Brexit second. The Tories don't understand this. They are still thinking keep away from Europe.

[@anthonygregory3022]

Tories never left the EU. Labour want to capitulate back into the EU. We the people 17.4 million made LAW voting Brexit. We left the EU without a deal on 29th March 2019.

[@tobylynch]

@@anthonygregory3022 You never made any law. Hahaha

[@ilof8125]

4:44 into this video and feel like your describing me

[@mfs1011]

It is still a political Everest that Labour has to climb. Nobody can truly estimate the scale of victory or defeat when the very first votes are only just being cast.

[@ashroskell]

Why would people NOT want their government to have a super majority? Surely they want to see the policies enacted with as few obstacles and delays?

[@ashroskell]

@@-V-K- : Of course you’re right about that, though I don’t know if 90% is as plausible as it is theoretically possible? Yet, if this Labour party reforms the voting system, “because,” of their supermajority? We know the Tories will do anything to try to stop them and it may be our only chance to see it done. Labour’s manifesto doesn’t promise this, not outright. But I think they may just be trying not to spook the horses here. They do promise a raft of voting reforms regarding devolved UK parliaments, including the mayoralties. We saw how the Tories got away with changing the mayoral races into first-past-the-post and, when criticised, pointing to the obscure wording of a sub-paragraph in their manifesto and calling that their, “mandate.” It’s cheap tricks like that which have alienated so many erstwhile conservative voters recently . . . along with their appalling track record for fraud, incompetence and corruption. But Labour has a whole bunch of clauses in their manifesto that could be carried through to complete reform of the voting system, married to their plans to overhaul the Second Chamber? This is not my idea: I picked it up from a reliable pundit whose KZbin channel is called A Different Bias. But the more I’ve looked into it, the more I see how much Labour (and all of the minority parties) stand to gain, making the Tories and the fringe right movements (perhaps the mainstream soon?) the biggest losers, permanently.

[@snotwurfit]

Checks and balances, that's why.

[@justintcb5189]

So the pollsters got the GE 2019, Trump 2016 and EU Ref 2016 wrong, and yet everyone still takes their word as gospel?

[@WH-hi5ew]

Seems unlike that the Conservatives will win though nevertheless.

[@hintonus]

Greens were so so bad locally in Brighton, still remember the awful bin strike which they failed to resolve and the entire city being covered in garbage. Caroline Lucas was an amazing MP but not sure they will hang on in Brighton without her star power

[@thomasstrudwick94]

80 seats is still 10 times too many.

[@ChicagoDB]

How about Lee in Ashfield?

[@kennethhodges3187]

Here's a question for you:;- Should people vote for what is best for the country or what they think is best for themselves?

[@garethyoung6067]

Just to add, in Africa it’s called the night of the long knives.

[@frank834skinner3]

Hope the Tories go the way of the Liberal Party.

[@mjhmn]

Zero Seats!

[@DaleHanson-nw9yc]

Good.

[@KarlGerrin]

Reform Nigel for PM

[@Rob-uv8bu]

Tories should stand aside let Reform in

[@VA-lo4ul]

“Curb on rip-off degrees”, I love that. Useless degrees such as Modern Languages, Creative Writing and Film Studies should be closed for good.

[@TheIdlesurfer]

Eh? People should speak only English? Degrees in other languages are a waste of time? Seriously?

[@matf5593]

I can see a Labour -UKIP coalition. 😊

[@valerieforbes8096]

Can’t stand Sunak or Starmer so it’s Reform for me. Always voted Conservative in the past.

[@scogginsscoggins]

How about thẻ Independents and the WP?

[@tonysadler5290]

Could the slight shift to the Liberals, be people intending to vote tactically?

[@gio-oz8gf]

Come on, one poll shows a 2% slip in support for Labour and you're talking about Labour's leader slipping off somewhere. It's one poll, and it's totally normal for polls to fluctuate. Let's have a bit of professional analysis.

[@williama-d6]

is he welsh?, he pronounced that well

[@chrisbremner8992]

Vote for Reform, don't vote for Labour they are no different.

[@michaelstevens3479]

So what is the point of voting when you do not need a NI number you can vote anonymously or while here on a visa for some ? there is more but I cannot remember the whole article.

[@ian38018a]

Just a little comment - all the Poles I know, took up the option of British citizenship post Brexit, and do have a vote.

[@WhoDaresWinso7]

We call it #ZeroSeats

[@indefatigable8193]

Finally, they invited this guy on to say more than just: someone will win and someone will lose 😂 Some of his past commentaries have been stuff a guru would tell you.

[@JohnShaw-zm2pc]

Vote out to help out vote Labour make your vote count vote Labour 😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅

[@petebooth5121]

If I vote Labour it helps the Tories mate. I’ll have to vote SNP.😉

[@pod10]

I worry about turnout and this Labour have it in the bag attitude. Really worried people just aren't going to bother voting.

[@nicks4934]

Tell them to vote!

[@pod10]

@@nicks4934 will tell as many as I can.

[@SusanScarrott]

I live elsewhere but will vote Green because they have a policy to reduce inequality.

[@ianscott6547]

Don't count your chickens yet smartarse!!

[@PricelessJesus]

❤❤Labour

[@simonwheeler8981]

The sad thing is that Labour will win by occupying the centre ground cleared out by Tory populism and the right’s response will be to merge with Reform and become MAGA-UK. That’s fine for a couple of terms of good sensible Labour government but people have short memories and long term it could mean a shift towards US style politics which would be a terrible thing - particularly without the protection of a written constitution. I’m hoping for electoral reform in the second term to get us out of this ping pong political system.

[@Jamie-666]

Insane lady

[@MattJarvis0]

I think it’s important to be cautious when promulgating the Tories’ prospects in this way… it could encourage voting complacency and polls (on which the predictions are based) have been extremely misleading in the past (think Brexit, and Trump). Would be good to reiterate that caveat in all of these discussions

[@Carroty_Peg]

zero seats!

[@jonathonjubb6626]

We SHOULD be able to afford the Green agenda? We actually cannot afford not to afford most of the Green agenda. Just shows how far the Overton Window has shifted - J.F.C!!!

[@jeromefitzroy]

10 seats would be too good for the Cons

[@nicks4934]

Ben. Do up your shirt

[@krishnavenymuthusamy4481]

Sunak try to save Britain .Labour try to hand over London to Khans

[@djtomoy]

Oh no 🙉

[@roopa4294]

Rishi shoukd come up with more tax cuts maybe inheritance tax , he stands a chance of votes shifting to them.

[@samuelmelton8353]

Voting Green

[@RichardFraser-y9t]

Anything to kick the Tories, if labour is safe where you are then the greens are a sensible vote to push the window back leftwards

[@samuelmelton8353]

@@RichardFraser-y9t Labour are just Tories - I don't mind if a few get through and keep Labour's majority low. Vote for who you want. Labour aren't going to help you.

[@firstlast-tf3fq]

Most of us want to see how few seats we can make the Tories get 😂

[@doncrossan487]

Sunak made his fortune fucking RBS. JUST RIGHT FOR PRIME MINISTER.

[@PtolemyJones]

So, Binhead to #10 confirmed?

[@SunofYork]

Today I have tried to register to vote in the UK. I was born In England, I have a UK Passport and a NI number and a UK State pension. After 15 years overseas in the US, I CAN vote. I have lived overseas for 19 years. I have spent all day trying to register and to get a postal vote. Absolute bloody nightmare. They (Bradford electoral Office), have reused me and want my EU Identity card ! They have a photocopy of my UK Passport and my NI number etc etc etc etc ! I was going to vote labour, but if I ever get authorised I will vote reform.... in the hope that the nazis will sack this lot...

[@Magicspark2366]

Reform ! yes!