The Cost of the American Dream | Animal Spirits 384

[@garyrogers6977]

I'm 73. One year's time is 1/73. That relationship is what causes us to feel that time is speeding up as we age.

[@noveltyrobot]

Wow, when said out loud it's so obvious, yet I've never thought about it like that.

[@Ryan_Tinney]

Wisdom

[@Bonez1999]

This is known as the Proportional Theory

[@jimbojimbo6873]

I was reading about this the older you get your reference of time changes. When i was 12, 6 months felt super long. Now it’s around the corner that I’m 29

[@M43782]

It sound scary. I'm 34.

[@DaveSmith-c3x]

Thank you, Ben. These hedge funds guys have a God complex. Nobody never talks about their loses

[@michael071284]

Michael sitting in front of a peloton saying these zombie companies are gone 😂

[@cerichson]

"A thief believes everyone steals" .... You always perceive the world through your own experiences of it.

[@davidlkleinman]

I cannot describe how loud I laughed alone in my car when Michael yelled Audi still has my wife’s car 😂

[@vaward]

Josh Brown had two excellent guests on recently that talked about BRICS governments loading up on gold to de-risk from the dollar. Best explanation that I've heard so far.

[@toddpolish]

Need a “Credit to Me” T-shirt!!!

[@McCloskeyKyle]

The new home owner talk hit home so hard. We just had a dude come over to service our heater and I legit asked him "What other stuff should I do regularly on a house". I'm 34 and have the internet but somehow that seemed more accessible and trust worthy.

[@fungdark8270]

Similar boat, mid thirties first time owner, bought a year ago and haven’t had any service done yet, saw a video about water heaters and how they are supposed to be flushed yearly 😂

[@HaloTupolev]

Even if inflation was 0% for the rest of the decade, that's a bad case for sequence-of-returns. Given the same pattern of wage changes over time, the person who sees steady inflation across a decade is doing much better than the person who sees a sharp rise in the first half and a flatline in the second half.

[@matt.stevick]

12:02 “just..agree” lol love that

[@doubleclick21]

"I'm right and you're smart, so think on it for a few minutes and you'll agree with me." 🤣 I think if I'd known more about Charlie Munger I might have paid more attention to the Buffet-sphere.

[@NJtek]

When yields were near 0 on feds fund rate peak covid I bought TTT to short treasuries and made a nice return on it

[@warrenbuffet6126]

The one beauty of inflationary squeeze this decade is that it’s been greatly outpaced by asset prices. If you were someone that embraced the volatility you are feeling as rich as ever.

[@EatYourWeetabix]

For private school, it’s the extracurriculars and teaching how to conduct yourself. There’s *typically* a discernible difference

[@EntopicTime]

As a European I'am sick an tiered of these arguments made by Europeans about better healthcare and more free days. We are freeloading on the protection of the US. We never paid enough into the NATO and we still have the arrogance to lecture the world. The US innovate ...the EU regulate. Apparently we need to learn the lessons of the past again: "speak softly ...and carry a big stick..."

[@Marcus_K]

The U.S. is behind many european countries in quality of life studies, including studies made by american researchers. The Ukraine war has been a wake-up call and european defense spending is on the rise.

[@kelleykid1179]

35:09 what is your point Ben? Inflation isn’t a big deal bc it happened in 4 years vs 2010s. That is an insane rationalization

[@jluther1755]

Insane rationalization is Ben's specialty

[@57yota11]

I went to both public and private schools and the advantages are different. Private schools teach academics much better than public schools. However, public schools teach you how to deal with unfair environments and navigate impersonal/imperfect systems/organizations. In my opinion primary education should be private secondary should be public.

[@eh7599]

Central banks have been buying gold and the price has risen. Gold ETFs will continue to rise partly because of this IMHO.

[@Carnitas123]

Specifically the BRICS banks buying.

[@logan_yu]

I gotta go check if my dishwasher needs a filter now

[@tracyforrest2253]

Raw dog the movie, lol. Love watching you guys

[@swimmerwes]

Can you do a discussion on how to use a HELOC loan for home renovations and how to budget this? Kind of like the filter discussion but I think a deeper dive into how to "responsibly" use this line of credit and what it looks like for a monthly budget would be a good topic for future pod. Thanks

[@jsssm]

Gold is going up because world banks are buying it hard due to recent restrictions on dollars (on russia during ukraine war) and fear that others don't want to be stuck holding dollars and are switching to gold.

[@edwardgiugliano4925]

"ls this the fastest year on record..."? Yes. Yes it is. Agree 100%

[@BitsOfInterest]

59:34 "horror is killing it" - Michael Batnick (2024)

[@jimbean8820]

41:30 hilarious seeing how fed up Mike is with Ben's constant 3% mortgage rate humblebrag every episode

[@99CKamp]

Where are you getting this salad with chicken for $24? Mine from Nally Fresh has beets, feta and sweet potatoes and costs around $11. Suburbs of Baltimore

[@daveschmarder-1950]

Happy Halloween everyone!

[@jacquesleriche_]

Love the jacket Ben!

[@re-tire985]

In Phoenix we love taking waymos

[@JamesDell-ni9hp]

Rule in our house, no pajama pants or pajama sweatpants at school.

[@doubleclick21]

49:39 that Waymo issue could be solved by having 20-30%+ of the cars on the road be other Waymos... But thats a looong ways off (sadly).

[@kylebrunson8765]

Yes, the election season is WAY too long. It should be about as long as the NFL or NBA playoffs. Long enough for people to get hyped for their “team” and move on with their lives after the Super Bowl is over

[@davidgrisco1939]

I've always had this proposal...no elected official can spend more than 2X the position's salary to get elected.

[@davidcohen2322]

"Stoned all the time." Why am I not surprised?

[@enemy1134]

the handkerchief... you answered yourself right after bringing it up. for 4 hours this man was suffering from a relentless runny nose. you couldn't keep enough tissues to deal with that

[@crohmer]

no google is weird, you need to click "already watched" to mark that it is

[@Frederick0220]

Ben, why the hell did you spoil Trap?! 😠

[@spenndoolie]

People are clearly worse off than 4 years ago… just because the top got all the gains doesn’t mean everyone’s better off

[@abitler9445]

Yea 130k over 40 years is like 4 million but you have to pull taxes out of that. Then the necessities like food and every one is going to spend something on pleasure in 40 years

[@edorofish]

the two private schools in my area are outrageous in price and I think there is no benefit for a private education vs public education. i think many people in my area attend private schools so they can brag to their neighbors. Pre-K is over $10k/yr and tuition increases up to $24k/yr for 6th grade. That's crazy!

[@shelleygreyrealtor]

People absolutely do it to brag....and there are also benefits to having your kid around other kids that have parents that can also afford it. Similar to how you can buy a house on skid row vs Beverly Hills.

[@edorofish]

@@shelleygreyrealtor ....benefits to having your kid around other kids that have parents that can also afford it? what benefits?

[@ZoffPhx]

Euro taxes are super high. There is no incentive to make more money. Spoke to a banker in Amsterdam his income tax was 60%. Yet he has free Healthcare and a rent stipend if he lost his job. Huge trade off. US system does not have the extra protections for the working class

[@fungdark8270]

Seeing a meaningful return on your tax dollars could incentivize growth, but I won’t wait around for that 😂

[@NJtek]

we're spending more on debt service than military and there's North Korean troops in Ukraine and they just tested a missile that went high enough to hit US

[@JscottMays]

On Gold... There is a chart floating around that has gold rising and "some crucial instrument" diverging upon Sanctioning Russia. Frankly, I'm a Trader and Macro takes could use a benchmark and a betting market. I suppose that is one way to be in the market. Feelz gross.

[@pathflight9803]

Shouldn’t take four years to digest a chicken

[@thebarryman]

Stocks are losing ground to gold. Precursor to losing ground in nominal terms. Real interest rate narrative is a myth. When stocks break in dollar denominated terms, gold will likely sell off sharply as well, but not as heavily.

[@Miloxiaocelao]

I don’t know how you’d measure “living better” quantitatively. All the “standards” people throw out sound more like personal preferences. The ambition part I agree with. Better safety net is worse impetus for ambition. Also, yes, there are lots of European comments on how the US is screwed up. The ones that bother me the most is anything mass shooting. It usually begins by pointing out how bad they are, then makes fun of the US for having that problem. It’s just mean and rude. That said, I love Europe. I want to retire there lol😂

[@jimbojimbo6873]

Syaing sometimes the market is wrong is insane to me, wrong in what sense there’s no barometer here it’s purely demand lmao. Who decided the market must follow valuations?

[@scottiebumich]

The debate between private and public school is awesome misunderstood. It should not focus on academics as there are very good. There are many private schools that have certain focuses other than just Core curriculum. Think of things like religion or other values you may have such as outdoor schools and other types of lifestyle private schools . We will send our kids to an international school because we value getting a world exposure instead of sending them to a school where they are all us Americans dancing to the same music and consuming the same media media

[@indermann9523]

The best part is im not even gay, but Ben is fine with that beard holy shit

[@CyanAblaze]

oh we changed the bucket......

[@nortonantho]

"Duuuuudee.....it's a mindset."

[@fungdark8270]

The bucket is big enough that it evaporates faster than it fills, bet

[@usazar]

Michael get heat pumps in every room

[@jessedan5290]

Michael is dying to be Jerry Seinfeld.. he LOVES crowbarring obscure cultural observations into conversations like the water bottle take.

[@milesk3781]

36.07 Ben.. God dammit.. Tats my life.. Won a lottery.. Got into a bad habit.. In 30s now... Studying finance and doing cfa as well.. I wish I had never won lottery..

[@cosmopalmieri7303]

How can you guys not mention Nothing Nick Cola's reason for gold going higher. He said it multiple times on your show. Nations don't trust dollar denomination

[@derelictmusic3218]

Xbox definitely did not exist in the 90s 🤣

[@made4tv495]

We'll find out next week who's still sore about "22%" Inflation. They don't have many assets, but they have a vote.

[@chrisbentsen1]

That won’t help them get any assets though 😊

[@made4tv495]

@@chrisbentsen1 So they'll actually vote for a crash so they can git some. Prob inconceivable to B&M.

[@kosi42]

Penguin was good until episode 5. The 4th one was amazing. The 5th one was a mess of a sped-up plot kinda like the last season of GoT. I quit the show after that.

[@admirall.ackbar]

Here's a theory on why both gold, bitcoin, and stocks are all up like you were wondering in your opening. This is currently a gilded age style economy. Due to the Trump tax cuts, Biden infrastructure spending, there's a lot of money sloshing around in the economy. Think 2004 between the military expenditures of the Iraq War and the Bush tax cuts. This is a very very good time to be rich in the United States. But for the rest of the country, actual purchasing power is down. And while Americans continue to spend at a surprisingly significantly high level, and that's been a sign of a good economy, I think that misunderstands the data. People are spending so much because they feel they need top spend so much to maintain their quality of living from just a few years ago. That's why you can have conflicting surveys on consumer spending where there's like a 2.4% increase in consumer spending but all the signs show purchasers are looking for more affordable options. In past economies, when people had a loss in purchasing power due to recession or economic shocks, they would cut back on non essentials. But in this current post covid economy, it looks like people are instead cutting back on future investment. 25% of people say they're going to reduce 401k contributions. Debt is going back to pre-pandemic levels. That is reducing your future financial prospects for maintaining today's purchasing power. And just to give some statistical evidence, the Primerica Household Budget Income shows that the purchasing power of a American that makes between $30k and $130k a year has just returned to February 2021 levels. In July of 2023 those American's had less buying power than they had in January of 2019! Which shows that Mike is just wrong that most American's are better off or it's a political question, not actual economic fact. So you have all this surplus investment capital, from the richest, and it's sloshing about in the system. So it's going everywhere. AI is the next big thing! Crypto's back and will take over the world! Gold is the greatest store of value in human history! Housing prices will never decline! Okay, that last one was from 2006, but you get my point. And look, I am making light somewhat, I don't believe we're going to have a 2007 style economic crash. But what I am saying is that it's due to distortions in income inequality and taxation structures. I do think the increase in interest rates have tempered things a bit. What the future holds, I don't know. But I think this current business cycle can be explained by the above factors. And maybe as a rich American my view is skewed. I took all my money in from the Trump tax cuts over the last ten years, and I pumped $$20k+ annually into my company's R401K. So I'll never be taxed on it again for the rest of my life. It's a very good time to be rich in America. It just sucks for everyone else.

[@doubleclick21]

Oh man when I finally got a 401k with after tax contributions... Future me is going to be so happy with me.

[@garyrogers6977]

It's insane that I am the third commenter.

[@tirthb]

Because of China selling bonds and buying gold?

[@indermann9523]

Ben is the definition of a daddy

[@matt.stevick]

go nova knicks 🏀🐋🇺🇸

[@oldmsippiguy6545]

I'm far better off "net worth wise" than 4 years ago, but it has nothing to do with the Biden and Harris administration. If not for their failed economic polices, I'd be even better off and would have more take home pay to invest rather than paying more for everything.

[@Nick-fd4nz]

This entire show is becoming so infused with Ben rationalizing his own financial views and decisions.

[@indermann9523]

Ben is a a thirst trap