The END of Russian Aviation!? | Mentour NOW!

[@MentourNow]

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[@JohnDoe-bd5sz]

If the russian companies are essentially not going to need planes because they are banned from entering and landing planes in airspace and countries, would mean that they would have to give them back anyway would it not ? If Russia in the forseeable future will only be able to do domestic routes and routes to a few other destinations would suggest they are going to need a lot less planes overall, so maybe this is a "cheap" way for them to actually get out of those leases "cheap"

[@robainscough]

Not the end of Russian aviation if Putin is disposed ... there are signs that will likely happen as Russian military personnel and Russian citizens are in significant hardship right now that is only going to get worse. The Russian economy is falling apart ... civil war or disposition will happen within the next 3 weeks. Russian oligarch have even issued $1,000,000 contracts out on Putin to "arrest" him. I'd be surprised if Putin can stay in power more than 3 weeks. If you look at Military budgets over the years, Russia has a relatively small budget, especially compared to US and China. Now that China appears to be in talks with helping the Ukraine this war will end quickly ... and one hopes soon enough to see Russian aviation back in the skies again. One trigger for this event is Putin's failure to keep his US agent Trump in power ... Trump would have allowed Putin's invasion and has even praised Putin's invasion as "genius" and "smart" (I kid you not, in public). Fortunately Trump is no longer President and is in deep legal battles.

[@andrewtaylor940]

@@robainscough I’m not that optimistic regarding Putin’s fall. Or what would come after him should it happen.

[@6yjjk]

Sucks to be Finnair right now. Pretty much all of their long-haul network goes east.

[@andrewtaylor940]

@@6yjjk More worrying to Finnair is Putin threatened to Nuke Finland, day one of this, out of the blue with no prompting.

[@BEAMChannel]

One other issue, Russian Airspace is closed so If you want to fly between Europe and Asia I expect that things will go back to what they were in the '80's and there will suddenly be a LOT Of traffic into Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport (PALH). It is already a very busy cargo hub.

[@MentourNow]

That’s coming up on my next NOW! Video

[@tomriley5790]

Yep buying Alaska is looking like an even better idea than it already did!

[@TheNixie1972]

Even if the Russian airspace is not closed I don't expect airlines to fly through it. Just imagine an on board emergency, forcing the plane to land in Russia and then have a plane with passengers and crew stuck there, because you cannot send support, maintenance staff or spare parts for repair.

[@friendlypiranha774]

@@SomeRandomUserName960- that's why the Boeing 747 SP was originally developed. South African Airways was prohibited from flying over most of Africa, so had to fly around the bulge of Africa.

[@BEAMChannel]

@@SomeRandomUserName960 is enough to go from London to Tokyo without overflying Russia? I have no idea

[@PleegWat]

According to local news, Dutch airline KLM stopped flying into Russia even before the airspace was closed because in case of problems there would not be spare parts available, and they would not even be able to fly in spare parts for their own use.

[@MentourNow]

Yep, there are also huge issues with insurance companies in times like this. That’s normally the first that stops airlines from flying close to a conflict zone.

[@PleegWat]

@@MentourNow I think they also got more careful since the MH17 disaster.

[@seraphina985]

@@MentourNow Yeah that doesn't exactly surprise me our insurance company that provides coverage for our servers in Kyiv took all of about 2 hours to email us with a reminder that the policy does not cover acts of war. That said I'm more concerned for our employees in the area as we really have to try our best to keep the systems up as long as we can, we host customers essential to communication and survival on our infrastructure. It's really scary even from a distance for me (I'm living in Amsterdam) knowing that doing so means having employees work in a building just 100 metres form a building that has been hit by a rocket. I just hope this somehow ends soon too many have died already and for what none of this makes sense to me then war just doesn't make sense in my head period.

[@davidanderson4091]

Not to mention, why would any airline want to fly into a war zone? Remember MH17?

[@thilomanten8701]

@@PleegWat Which carried mostly Dutch Citizens. Until this days Russia is spitting in the faces of their relatives.

[@murraystewartj]

Petter, have been a follower of Mentour Pilot for a while but this is my first time visiting this channel (subbed now) and I just wanted to let you know how much I appreciate your content. Despite your obvious enthusiasm for aviation you have that rare talent for discussing topics in the field you love in a logical and dispassionate manner that sheds more light than heat. You are one of those rare people whose combination of knowledge and analysis equals total trust. Have fun, brother - your joy in doing what you do is a true public service. Thank you.

[@EinfachLuap]

On a different note: i am about to finish my pilot training, within the next few days and i wanted to say thank you, from the bottom of my heart. The amount of times i fell back to your videos when i absolutely thought i couldn't go on anymore is unfathomable and without you, i don't think i would have made it. Thank you.

[@The_ZeroLine]

Congrats.

[@sirfer6969]

Yeah agreed, congrats, well done.

[@stuartmcconnachie]

Something you didn’t mention is I imagine the Russian airlines might not need of a lot of these planes at the moment. Since they’re banned from flying just about anywhere, the only use for them will be internal flights. Sure, it’s a big country, but it won’t require their entire fleet. So more than happy to hand them back (if they can) and stop paying for the leasing.

[@lookup49]

A lot of surplus aircraft for airlines should translate into better leasing deals for our airlines...and maybe lower airfares. However, airlines are greedy and fuel costs are skyrocketing...so please delete this post.

[@RandyFortier]

@@lookup49 Why would they delete their post, when your point certainly doesn't negate their point?

[@daveroche6522]

But are they actually going to continue paying? If so, how? The ruble is essentially useless as currency. On behalf of all decent Russians - "Well done, Comrade Putin - enjoy your millions".

[@grizzlygrizzle]

@@daveroche6522 -- Russia has been buying gold like mad over the past couple of years, so they have assets that are likely to rise in value.

[@enemixius]

@@grizzlygrizzle Even gold is pretty worthless if nobody wants to buy it from you.

[@Misteribel]

A lot of European airlines ceased operations before the aerospace was blocked. Famously, two KLM planes returned mid air. Reason was that if servicing were needed, they weren’t allowed to buy the parts in Russia, or unable to get the parts otherwise. That’d mean they’d had to leave the plane behind in Russia.

[@thomasdalton1508]

There was a plane a few years back that had to make an emergency landing in Iran and it took months to get an exemption to the sanctions Iran was under in order to take the parts needed to fix it there. The plane just had to sit in the ground. Airlines around the world learnt a lot from that experience and have tried very hard to avoid anything like that happening to them. I'm not surprised KLM decided to turn around rather than risk it.

[@USATukker]

Not entirely.... From what I read it wasn't about buying, or being unable to buy, parts in russia. Rather, they carried their own spares for certain systems, should they need them. That was covered by the 'transporting aviation parts', under the sanctions.

[@Misteribel]

@@USATukker honestly, I don’t know, it’s my interpretation. I’m Dutch and heard it on the news here. When I check sources, I find that the Financial Times wrote on the KL903 and KL1395 flights: “EU sanctions prohibit sending any spare aircraft parts to Russia, even if they are intended for the airline’s own use.”. KLM itself is quoted to say (and it’s on their site as well) “This decision was prompted by sanctions agreed upon by EU states, stipulating that no spare aircraft parts may be sent to Russia, even if they are intended for the airline in question. This means KLM can no longer guarantee that flights to Russia or passing over Russian territory can return safely.”

[@tomdavis3038]

@@USATukker either way, why risk it? At the end of the day it’s not enough of a profit on a flight to send into hostile territory

[@tomdavis3038]

Who THE HELL would be flying into Russia right now anyway? Cheers

[@PauperJ]

I was one of your first 200 subscribers here on Mentour Now! Let's keep Denys, his family, and his country in our prayers. Great video Petter.

[@NicolaW72]

Yes, indeed, I do. And also Dmitryo Antonov, the Captain of the now gone AN-225.

[@StonyRC]

Let's all hope that this disastrous situation is resolved as soon as possible with no further bloodshed and that the good people of Russia, Ukraine and the rest of the world can get on with their lives without politicians and world leaders screwing it all up! Excellent video, Sir. Many Thanks from the UK.

[@covidhoax7646]

You’re going to have to change your government over there in UK for that to happen.

[@PavelVolodkov]

I'm a Russian flight institute student, and I, as well as all my fellow students, are absolutely terrified by the actions of our government. Putin not only started the war that nobody wanted, but also put our future in a serious danger of unemployment and poverty. Now I'm not even sure if I'll be able to finish my training, because all our trainer aircraft are european Diamonds DA40 and DA42. Nevertheless, I want to say thank you for shedding light on the situation around my country, and I really hope that in the nearest future our nations will live in peace and cooperation with each other❤

[@Anno_Nymouse]

Are you still in Russia? If so, how does this work that most of you guys are not interested in what happens in world? It's like majority of you trust 100% in Putin's actions. In the rest of the world there would be more resistance when hearing someone starting an "military operation" but in real it's an invasion and also the treatment of their soldiers and giving informations of this war. Seems like your military is a failure in all aspects. Intelligence, logistics, technology. How can parents be that silent while their kids are send without preparation and knowledge to a WAR? It also like the whole country is isolated. Is there still noone who get the point that it's more complicated than ever before since 1990? I just don't get it. Sure we've seen that back in 30s where Nazigermany was the same but I thought your history would keep you awake of such dangerous situations. The fact that Russian culture is deleting themself, especially in western countries is astonishing. $ 20 billions daily in military expenses for invading Ukraine. Stock market erased Thousands of dead russian soldier bodys (still lying on the ground) Russians around the world dissociate themself from Russian culture (I'm one of them) Isolation till Putin's administration is gone (that's up to Russians how long it will take) For me it's like watching inside a lunatic asylum. Are Russians really that depended on someone who tells them what to do or has your media done their job that good? A day after invasion my mom didn't believe me, that all this will happen. She didn't believe that in modern times so much shitstorm will lead to isolation. Sometimes it looks like they (especially the elder) want to live in isolation because they miss former soviet times when they were kids ("as usual it was everything better when we were young - ignoring all problems around us - parents will face them"). She is so into Putin (brainwashed by Russian media and her sister).

[@PavelVolodkov]

@@Anno_Nymouse Yes, I still live in Russia, and, concerning other questions, could you please tell me where did you draw this information from? At this point very few people support Putin's regime, none of my friends or relatives for sure. However, you should keep in mind that while living in modern Russia, you cannot publicly protest against your government without the risk of going to jail or at the very least losing your job. That's what currently holding me and most of my friends from publicly protesting. However, every day more and more people are going to the streets to criticize current government's actions and the war. Please keep in mind, that if people behave differently in other countries, it doesn't mean that they're dumb, or "lunatics", as you said. The reason is that their living conditions are probably not the same as yours.

[@Anno_Nymouse]

@@PavelVolodkov The question is, why do you vote for this? Last election (2018) 77% voted for Putin. There wasn't much changes to nowadays. And please don't tell me it doesn't matter beacause your election process is rigged. If this is the point, then it's even more delusional. That would mean you guys gave up. You accept your slavery. Sorry mate, but I cannot accept, that Russians are so scared of their government that they do nothing. It's the opposite what should be. That's why governments need military forces. Not to defend themself from abroad but to defend themself from domestic revolution. Ukraine people show the world how they fight against tyranny, while Russians sitting on their couch believe they can't change this. Sorry mate. I'm Russian and I do not believe that Russians are that scared.

[@Anno_Nymouse]

@@PavelVolodkov kzbin.info/www/bejne/oXavpZRvgrGCsMk That's how many of Russians react: The younger ones are scared. The older ones don't believe or are 100% (blindly) with Putin and his actions. Like a sect. Just watch the history books. It's usually the students who fight for their future in their countries. That's also what Putin's administration fears. But seems so, he found a way to break all of you. Good luck mate. You will need it.

[@johnstone7697]

@@PavelVolodkov Thank you for your perspective. You should know that Americans do not hate the Russian people. Many emigrated here after the fall of the Soviet Union, and have become citizens. I have many Russian friends. This is all about your government, especially your dictator. We see his actions as those of a madman. We fear he will do something really crazy and start a major war...a war neither of us can win. Then we will all be finished.

[@_CJ_]

Thank you for being professional. In aviation news I'm sad that An-225 was almost certainly lost. Huge beautiful aircraft. :( I'm glad that vast majority of world is united in that this conflict is bad and should end asap. And I've never seen so many private companies using sanctions before states order them. I'm looking forward to next video 💖

[@vitaly6312]

It was. There’s Video now

[@BlueSky-ub4fx]

Thanks, Petter! Thanks, for handeling this sensitive matter so good! 1 thing I'd like to mention is: I really LOVE, that you don't use background music or plop and pop sounds, when inserts appear. That makes it very pleasant to listen to your videos. 👍👍

[@bokusimondesu]

Thank you for explaining this to me! It certainly proves to me that the sanctions, not only will effect the public, but more so the people nesting at the top.

[@ilovecops5499]

Birds also net at the top.

[@crand20033]

The Russians are gonna steal the airplanes and refuse to pay for them.

[@JacobDlougach]

When you mentioned EU airspace closures in the beginning of the video you made a small mistake. You said that the airspace is closed to certain people in the sphere around Putin. In reality it’s closed to all Russian citizens, including those who permanently live in the EU. This has a catastrophic effect on private pilots, pilot training and potentially also on commercial operations where a PIC is a Russian citizen.

[@RideWithRoy]

He actually said aircraft owned by people in the sphere of Putin. These aircraft will be banned from EU airspace regardless of the nationality of the passengers

[@JacobDlougach]

@@RideWithRoy I am saying that sanctions are currently phrased in such a way that they affect all Russian citizens, not just Putin’s friends. I don’t think that leisure flying was the area that was meant to be affected.

[@cleoxo2566]

Exactly! Wonder if Putin considered any of this. If course, he's got his own plane, and he clearly doesn't care about the suffering of his own people.

[@markblanch2905]

Just thank 💩tin, that's all. If not for him we'd all be flying freely and peacefully. He set the world back 80 years. Shame

[@Dan-fo9dk]

@@cleoxo2566 .... I guess also his air plane needs maintenance...

[@TiptronicSS]

This video passed to quickly. A lot of essential info I had no idea about. Next level content, keep up the good work!

[@Hebdomad7]

I fear this conflict may go on for longer than anyone wants. It will take the total collapse of Putins Government to end the war.

[@carlapatrick1867]

Thank You Petter for another EXCELLENT video as usual💖

[@MentourNow]

Glad you liked it!

[@82attilatoth]

1. The Russian airlines will not fight to keep those planes, because most of their destinations must be cancelled too, so they would end up with those planes grounded anyway. 2. The termination of the lease agreement is actually not too bad for the Russian airlines because the planes would be grounded anyway due to short of destinations. This way they do not have to keep paying the lease fee. The question is how painful it is going to be for the lease companies. Couple of hundred income generating planes suddenly become a costly asset.

[@MentourNow]

Correct, the lease companies have lost a lot of stock value lately, because of this.

[@NicolaW72]

Indeed good arguments.

[@МихаилВолков-л2я]

If return postponed, even with leased aircrafts grounded, airlines could use parts from them on planes they own. Though illegal, it is doable to keep fleet flying. I guess, a number of planes will be returned on nearly blown tires with many malfunctioning equipment. My guess it will take a whole year to ground all the Russian aviation. Consumation of planes to a spare parts, contraband and third-party supply and restoration of soviet planes from conservation will slow the process.

[@dantheman3022]

Yes people don't realize that sanctions are political only. They actually hurt both parties just as bad but are a political stunt to make it look like the government is doing something ! Santions are actually bad for the long term. It is preferable for russia to buy and rely on EU aircraft rather than producing their own which inevitably will be competition for the market !

[@gasgas2689]

@@МихаилВолков-л2я I worked in Nigeria in 2001. Shell oil commissioned a survey of internal airlines to research routine maintenance. The report said "We can only find one internal airline with any discernable form of routine maintenance". The Lagos airport had wreckages of burned out planes alongside the runway - not exactly what you want to see when looking out of the window as you land.

[@williamjames4543]

Sabre, the largest provider of airline information technology to Aeroflot, said on Thursday morning it would stop providing distribution services to the Russian flag carrier, essentially preventing it from selling tickets.

[@gobnagob9729]

Sabre was afraid to go the full mile tho...they are still operating the aeroflot ticketing for its website so I assume russians can still buy tickets

[@ilovecops5499]

@@gobnagob9729 LOL! SABER IS A SAVER TOOTHE TIGERS, IT IS NOTT AIRPLANES...SABRELOL!!!

[@gobnagob9729]

@@ilovecops5499 Put down the glue its time to rest.

[@ilovecops5499]

@@gobnagob9729 HELLO MINE GOODE FRIEND SMISTAH NABOB. I BEE PLEESED TO MEET YOUE...nabob nā′bŏb″ noun A governor in India under the Mughal Empire.A person of wealth and prominence.A viceroy or governor of a province in India under the Mogul empire: as, the nabob of Oudh; the nabob of Surat. The nabob was, properly speaking, a subordinate provincial governor, who acted under a soubah or viceroy.

[@michaelsmith7425]

Excellent dive into the leasing conundrum.

[@robynw6307]

A clear and well presented explanation of this situation. Thank you Petter. Part of me thinks "Well, Russia deserves this chaos to fall on it", but then, the Russian people do not. They haven't had any choice in any of this. I pray that this conflict ends soon, and doesn't become WWIII, and/or a nuclear war. My heart goes out to the Ukrainean people.

[@SeekingTheLoveThatGodMeans7648]

This trouble may be the current chance for the average Russian to stand up against evil. That's always a higher priority.

[@widnyj5561]

It's not that easy. While there are quite a few anti-war protests ongoing in russia, Putin still has enormous support in the society (if the reports are correct, from start of the war it jumped to ca 70%). And I have 0 compassion towards people supporting murderer, which even ordered bombing of civilians using forbidden weapons (thermobaric and cluster munition)

[@hepphepps8356]

The russian people deserve this. They gave Putin this power against better judgement.

[@elibrod9981]

We the sane Ukrainians and Russians stand behind president Putin’s decision to rid Ukraine of neo nazi slime that is headed by a cokehead clown. Ukraine is diseased with ideology of hate towards all things Russian including millions of their own people. People, they have been exterminating for the past 8 years. Your BBC, CNN, and so on forgot to mention that fact to you, didn’t they..? I thought of the viewers of this channel better then 🐏

[@frigzy3748]

The real tragedy is that Russian people in general support Putin's course. Yes - there is a lot of propaganda. But that propaganda falls on very fertile ground.

[@C.Fecteau-AU-MJ13]

You'd have to imagine that this will significantly reduce the already shaky safety of the Russian aviation operations... It's always the people who get screwed in war. "One class of men makes war and leaves another to fight it out." William Tecumseh Sherman.

[@BuriBuster]

This. Now that they are banned from flying into EU/USA, they dont need to follow the safety regulations, so they will just fly those planes until they fall from the sky.

[@samsmythe937]

@@BuriBuster And hopefully fall straight onto the Kremlin. Empty plane of course. I would not wish harm on any civilian, Russian or otherwise. Stay safe Ukraine!

[@NicolaW72]

Yes. Always.

[@sasjadevries]

It's a pity that all the shame is put on one country/one person. Look deeper into it before drawing any conclusions. Whenever the USA starts a military conflict in Iraq, Libia, Syria, Afghanistan, Serbia, or any other country far away form its borders, people think it's nothing special. Whevever Russia takes on one military conflict right near its borders, people suddenly react differently; meanwhile it's mostly the Russian side that has been urging to make agreements to prevent such an escalation. And don't forget that Ukraine had a democratically elected president in 2014, that had to flee his country because pro-western nationalist gangs overthrew the government; this is what caused the separatism movements in eastern Ukraine. Since then, the Ukranian government has been adopting nationalist laws: people like Bandera and Shukhevych (who were collaborating with Germany in 1941-1945) were officially declared national heros and streets got named after them. A law acknowledging the Ukrainian regional languages (like polish, russian, bulgarian etc.) got ceased, instead they pushed out new laws making the Ukrainian language mandatory. Go check for yourself on the Ukrainian govt site: zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/ru/2704-19?lang=en Section 57 of that law says store owners can even be fined for personell speaking with customers in a language other than Ukrainian. ----- You'd know better if you did your research yourself, and didn't just blindly believe the western narrative.

[@seafodder6129]

@@sasjadevries Yup, that certainly justifies an invasion...

[@shuaibrasheed7906]

Will appreciate if you can please find out and let us know about Saudi Airlines flight no. SV710 a 747 departed from Jeddah King Abdulaziz International airport for Karachi, Pakistan Jinnah International airport on September 10, 2003 at 13:30 local Saudi time at night. After one and a half hours two engines failed. There were 450 passengers on board including myself and my family. The flight was returned to Jeddah and it did an emergency landing. The one and a half return journey is still a nightmare for me. The worst part was that we were not allowed to leave the plane. They brought another 747 and forced us to board it and took us to Karachi in spite that a lot of people in shock and did not want to travel again the same day. The strange part is that the Saudi Airlines never reported this incident to any news or media. Only news was reported by Karachi newspaper based on passengers account. Thanks

[@claudest-gelais8456]

Quite interesting Peter. This self inflicted damage could be hurting them for years to come. Thanks for sharing this perspective.

[@alcoholfree6381]

You do a brilliant job! Keep it up 👍! I subscribed and look forward to your great analysis 🧐. Thanks

[@sholodenko]

It's all great and stuff. How about you look at these points in reverse? What about the revenue lost due to the loss of all these leases and spares? What about jobs around the manufacturing and supply chain that supported that? All these engineers that were paid for by the Russian airlines?

[@robertjpayne]

We must accept that leveling sanctions at Russia can not come without a price for us, maybe even a big price. But if the end result is the end of Putin and avoidance of a world war it will be worth every financial sacrifice we pay.

[@naturallyherb]

All of this definitely feels like aviation is back to what it was in the Cold War. Closed airspaces, lots of diversions and cancellations. Also I got to see the An-225 Mriya back in May 2020. That was my biggest bucket list item back then.

[@TheMateriaalkunde]

An-225 is said to be destroyed, since it was stored in Ukraïne and the hangar was bombed.

[@lumpty22]

@@TheMateriaalkunde it is indeed destroyed. There are pictures of its smoldering wreckage still in the hanger.

[@crand20033]

Russia is going to be like it was back in the USSR but worse because now the people are not fed and clothed by the government.

[@laras678]

I can't see the fact that Russian-made engines are 2 years away from being certified stopping Russia from just using them anway. Russia hasn't been great about maintenance and safety as it is. If it's a choice between no flights, or breaking rules on checks, lifespan of parts, using uncertified parts, and similar unsafe acts, they'll choose the unsafe choice rather than ground the planes. Also, the US has now also blocked Russia from its airspace.

[@MentourNow]

Yes, but if they play that game, they will never be allowed outside Russia. Safety is paramount and all rules must be followed for an aircraft to be allowed over other countries airspace’s

[@NicolaW72]

@@MentourNow There´re only a few countries remaining outside Russia and its "allies" as destinations for Russian airlines if we´re looking e.g. on FR24: China (of course), Egypt, Turkey, Dubai and Cuba. Basically that´s it. The Russian Airline industry will be dominated by domestic flights in future. So they probably will not care much about this.

[@JelMain]

@@NicolaW72 It couldn't reach Cuba without incursion into an interdicted airspace.

[@sethrosenblum2878]

@@MentourNow I was thinking the same thing about ignoring standards. Thank you for this observation.

[@maxxiong]

@@JelMain My understanding is that overflight restrictions apply only to just beyond the coastlines and not the FIR boundary so a flight can just go over the oceans.

[@graemeroberts2935]

Incredibly knowledgeable, crystal clear, and competent! Bravo!

[@alanzimmerman1674]

Great analysis! Glad to know the effects of the sanctions on aviation--which is of course an important part of the Russian economy!

[@Footy_Fan]

I am truly blessed to have happened upon your channel. I love your content and, as an aviation enthusiast, your channel is highly enlightening. Please keep up the fantastic work.

[@Tiisiphone]

Another consequences of this conflict we don't necessarily think about. Thank you.

[@AFoxGuy]

Budget Airlines looking at buying planes: *My time has come*

[@paulmorgan8254]

I used to work for a gas turbine manufacturer and I know most of the gas from Russia is pumped by these gas turbines so even though Germany wants the gas to continue there will be a problem eventually for maintenance of these. I have seen the results of not having spare parts when I was contracting later and a certain country not able to buy spares or get machines serviced had some severe machine failures, they had also swapped control cards from other machines when every gas turbine is individually commissioned for thermal limits etc.for safety and efficiency. The Russian service personnel are of a very high standard and I would guess if even a core change was required they might be able to get a serviceable core from some 3rd parties outside of Europe if money was thrown at the problem. I love the Russian people and their ability to accept things like this happening again and I absolutely love Russian winter food as it's so full of fat!. My wife has a small business renting holiday bungalows and we used to get Russian families booking up to 4 at a time and they're best the customers you could want, they clean the rooms themselves, children so well behaved, always invite you to eat with them, I could list so many good things about the Russian people. I feel so sorry that their government has shit on their savings again.

[@Winda25]

Thank you for taking courage to comment something good about us during these times. I feel that now everybody in this world is hating us just by the fact that we are Russians, just by nation, although we as a people haven't started that war and have no support of what is happening(

[@paulmorgan8254]

@@Winda25 my wife gets emails (before Ukraine problem) from our Russian customers saying how much they missed staying at our resort because of covid. before covid we had Ukranian & Russian customers mixing freely and making barbecues together and a few families would come twice maybe 3 times a year. The Russian people have to be amongst the worst treated by their own government in the world down to not being able to travel freely in their own country without an internal passport, I don't know if it exists anymore. The things I hated about Russia was the officialdom at the airports and having things stolen from my luggage.

[@paulmorgan8254]

@@Winda25 it's not courage it's telling the truth but I have seen the other side of Russian tourism same as the other side of British tourism, drunk people not behaving themselves.

[@rrrseajay]

This should be a loud alarm bell for USA and others who have outsourced so much to China.

[@NicolaW72]

Yes, indeed.

[@snoopythebulldog7803]

Thanks Petter for your excellent report, straigt to the point, factual and informative. Keep up the good job. What is your opinion on the impact of the ban of all IL-76 and AN-124 cargo aircraft from the outsized cargo business ? It is well known that these two types of aircraft in particular have played a key role in certain European armed forces since the fall of the Berlin Wall, particularly within the logistics of the French army for its overseas operations. The oversized civilian cargo sector (transport of rocket parts, wind turbine blades, electrical transformers, etc.) is also likely to be strongly impacted, not to mention humanitarian transport for NGOs.

[@richardthomson4693]

only russian AN-124 have been banned from what I have seen. There was still a ukrainian one doing the rounds 12 hours ago, It was doing a flight from poland to france if my memory is correct. Antonov airlines registered in ukraine has 7 AN-124

[@GearHeadBoris]

I'm guessing there will be a significant period of adjustment for the Russian side but they have good capability with aviation and will build their own. Hopefully this whole situation will be resolved quickly and in a good way. This is also a big blow to the international space station project.

[@wwhb4780]

Whole situation will be resolved? The dead will remain dead, and the countries (first Ukraine, then Russia) will be ruined like Syria or Iran.

[@truesimplicity]

Yes, stay on point... Your input on the effects on aviation is truly interesring. There's plenty of Global coverage for the unjustified war between the Ukraine and russia.

[@isigo483]

Very interesting video. Its a perspective you wouldn't otherwise be able to get. Keep up the awesome work

[@MentourNow]

Yes, it’s a sad perspective but true nonetheless

[@NicolaW72]

@@MentourNow Indeed.

[@farmerjohn8726]

Do you have an update on the effect of sanctions on Russian aviation and certifications?

[@brucestein988]

As to the maintenance and parts problem, Russia may have a loop-hole available: China. It might be possible for China to do the maintenance and get spare parts for"their own" fleet of Boeing aircraft, and "grey market" the maintenance and parts to Aeroflot and other Russian airlines.

[@georgew2014]

That might happen. But China is distancing herself from various Russian deals at the moment. Servicing Aeroflot might trigger a move against COMAC. I don't think Xi wants to jeopardize development of the C919, which is a high-profile project he has promoted.

[@emilschw8924]

Subbed. I feel for the people in Russia who do not have part of this war, or want to be part of that, and who are against the invasion of Ukraine, they will also be affected by this. Sad.

[@siberian_slave]

Absolutely. People like my family and millions of others.

[@zekew2418]

I also feel for all humans. There have been signs in Russia for decades that things were going the wrong way since Yeltson was "elected" out of office. The Russian people had the chance to fight the changes then and could have got their country back. As the saying goes "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing"

[@davidjohn64]

The people of Russia , have supported Putin .. Sad .

[@Mr_Fahrenheit]

You would be better off feeling for the Ukrainians,

[@stapelchips6559]

2:09 Most Germans probably smiled at this point, because there is a wordplay with U. von der Leyens name. It sounds like the sentence: "Von der leihen", and that means "lent/lease from her".

[@renerpho]

Greetings from Germany. I had never noticed the word play potential in her name. But, while you are right that "von der leihen" can be translated like this, "lent from her" would most commonly be "von ihr leihen" in German.

[@stapelchips6559]

@@renerpho That's true, but concider this: "Willst du das wirklich von DER leihen?" ;-)

[@joesinakandid528]

Well thought out points, Petter, Thank you for sharing them with us. Of course we are all thinking about "The Elephant in the Room" but this are curiously relative and unmentioned consequences.

[@robertdeyoung350]

I just found your videos and find that they are clear and easy to understand. Great job

[@MrFlashjet]

Fantastic review of a very difficult topic to discuss. ❤❤

[@Showing_the_car_]

Thanks Petter - that was very interesting and insightful.

[@richardscottmills]

There are many, many things more tragic, but hearing about the An-225 was really disappointing news.

[@MaksymKitsera]

Thanks, great connection!

[@orchidhouse297]

Some very interesting considerations clearly explained. Thank you.

[@andyprocter4680]

P! Fascinating and insightful as always! Thoughts and prayers on Ukraine!

[@Richard_Turner]

Thank you for acknowledgement of bigger things going on, so many just not even mentioning it, and again great insight into the reality of the sanctions on the airlines

[@MattHealey.]

Also Manchester United cancelled their contract for flying the team abroad they had with Aeroflot

[@buckwylde7965]

The Russians will fly the aircraft until they literally fall out of the sky.

[@ronaldbarrett3112]

Great discussions. We in the aviation field need to stay active and included in this.

[@joncepet]

I think Russia will find a way how to get those airplanes maintained. I saw that China is trying to be neutral, but still leans towards Russia and maybe China will help with airplanes maintenance when time comes. Antonov An-225 was something, I would like it to see it being rebuilt.

[@090giver090]

Yes, there is always "a way around" but it involves "smoothing the authorities" and introducing a lot of middlemen into the supply chain. Both factors raise the costs of operations to the Moon.

[@georgew2014]

China will worry that helping Russia might cause problems for the COMAC C919 program, which relies on Western technology.

[@ragingfred]

Aeroflot was just kicked off of Sabre reservation system.

[@robert5008]

Thanks Mentour, for this update.

[@SpeedChecked]

Needles to say that even if they own 50 % of their fleet it's likely that engines don't. It might be leasing contracts too. The more concerning thing for me is safety. Because if there is lack of maintenance it makes a safety issue in the future.

[@hassanalihusseini1717]

Yes, safety was also my concern, even after the sanctions are finished.

[@danielaramburo7648]

Civilian aircraft should be exempt from the sanctions. It creates a serious safety issue.

[@richardthomson4693]

also note they have lost access to all the electronic repair and service manual system as well

[@Markle2k]

@@danielaramburo7648 Oligarchs run the Russian airline industry. The oligarchs are the people that all the countries are trying to put the most pressure on. Aeroflot is the state-owned flag carrier of Russia. The CEO and Chairman of the Board of Aeroflot (which has regional subsidiaries) play musical chairs with the Minister of Transport of Russia.

[@wwhb4780]

Just don't fly with Russian Airlines in all future and you will be safe.

[@jmi5969]

The Russian-speaking part of y-tube is now discussing the mandatory monthly software updates (at least for the Airbuses). Is it possible that missing the next deadline will cause the software to lock down the planes on the ground? I have no clue. Hope that it won't turn off the systems in the air, but it certainly can deny further takeoffs, can it not?

[@dougle03]

Very much doubt a software revision EOL should have any effect in the air. But for sure it might prevent further flights until resolved... I predict a bunch of hacked planes flying in russia for years to come. These sanctions are easily applied, but very difficult to remove with control. The only way they would be removed quickly would be the removal and prosecution of Putin, since he appears to be largely acting alone on his little 30 year personal vendetta.. H's reported to have cried when the Berlin wall came down; he's never got over it... He wants the 'glorious motherland' back, but he's miscalculated just how integrated his country has become with the west, and more importantly, how uncomfortable his billionaire supporters are becoming... They won't let Putin take all their wealth and comfort away. One has already put up a $1m bounty (dead or alive), more will surely follow...!

[@johnny_eth]

Airbus will never implement such a thing as the absolute first thing airplanes need to do is safety. And if the planes somehow shutdown, that will seriously affect the reputation of airbus elsewhere in the world. So no. Not going to happen. At most they can deny that software update while the war is going and that's it

[@johnheaney6383]

Very informative. Thank you for sharing your insight.

[@ianmooney213]

The Russian airlines are also reliant on global IT companies for their sales, ticketing and baggage tracing systems as well which will bring them to a stop really quickly.

[@richardn6588]

@Mark Holtdorf to be honest, he didn't invade another nation and start bombing civilians

[@climatixseuche]

@@richardn6588 you spoon down every shit the newsman on the telly regurgitate for you, or? and btw. the US is bombing civilians since forever with impunity, the Saudis and the US bomb Yemen back into the stone age without any regards for civilians. at least the Russian don't carpet bomb whole cities, Putins idiotic decision to go in light and minimize Civilian casualties costed a lot of troops their live.

[@zeveroarerules]

@@climatixseuche hello russian shill. (tu quoque is not a valid argument)

[@keytron888]

@@climatixseuche lmao, Russia is literally carpet bombing Ukraine cities as we speak. Take you whataboutism and get lost, troll!

[@player1GR]

So did they stop? Nope.

[@petrkubena]

It is quite probable, that they would get some of the parts and planes through third party and China is that party that is most likely willing to trade with Russia. And it is next to impossible to force China not to sell them their passenger aircraft even if significant part of the components for those planes come from countries that ban selling directly to Russia.

[@CreightonDuke84]

True but with the tanking of the Ruble, it’s going to be insanely expensive

[@Fairysnuff91]

China seems quite hesitant to fully support Russia, though. In theory, they won’t condemn Russia but Chinese banks are quietly pulling away from Russia. The impression I get is that China isn’t ready to do anything that might cause sanctions on itself. China isn’t prepared for sanctions the way Russia was.

[@worlddd7777]

@@Fairysnuff91 And keep in mind, majority of countries wont put any sanctions

[@Markle2k]

@@Fairysnuff91 There is a Chinese aircraft lessor that is trying to get its planes back from Russia.

[@georgew2014]

@@Fairysnuff91 To be honest, Russia was ready for the usual wrist-slap sanctions, not the ones that are slamming their economy.

[@larumpole]

So pleased you decided to cover the impact of the sanctions, there was so much I had not realized. In a future video I wonder if you might discuss the use of counterfeit engine parts in aviation? Your comments about the lack of spare parts ultimately grounding Russian commercial aviation made me think about Russia’s increasingly close relationship with China, and how China has allegedly been the source of high-quality allegedly counterfeit products for quite some time, why not engine parts?

[@sc1338]

China can’t build a reliable jet engine still. That’s why they’re trying to buy engines from Russia

[@jwarmstrong]

In the US we have Air Force One w/ colored foot prints in the carpet for Sleepy Joe - red for toilet diapers , blue bedroom & orange for jello room

[@grandmasterjo1]

Fantastic insight into the soon to be crash land of Russian aviation. Whichever way you look at it, any aircraft in Russia flying leased or made in , has a connect with sanctions. It’s only a lose lose situation for Russia. Super video 👌👌

[@CrispyOkra]

I downloaded the Mentour Aviation app awhile back. It had so many ad pop ups, even when the app wasn't open, I had to uninstall it.

[@dduarmand6972]

It would be nice to have an update on this video. A lot has happened.

[@MichiruEll]

There's currently (or at least two days ago) a Russian plane stuck at Geneva Airport. It landed and by the time they wanted to depart, their clearance was not granted cause in the meantime all the neighboring countries had closed their airspace. So I guess at least that plane could be returned to the Irish company (if it's one of theirs).

[@NicolaW72]

There´re next to this plane in Switzerland more Russian plane´s stucking on EU airports. Due to the reports which I found there´s this A 320 from Aeroflot in Geneva/ Switzerland, another A 320 from Aeroflot in Munich/ Germany and a third A 320 from Aeroflot in Amsterdam/ Netherlands. In Milano/ Italy there´s one 747-8 Freighter of AirBridgeCargo and a 737-400 Freighter of Atran, another 737-400 Freighter from Atran in Cologne/ Germany and three AN-124 Freighter of Volga Dnepr Airlines in Leipzig/ Germany. Together nine planes. This specific plane in Geneva is btw owned by GTLK, a Leasing Company based in Ireland but owned by a Russian Company who itself is owned by the Russian Government. So probably the business of GTLK is just on the way to be shutted down.

[@Markle2k]

I believe that there is an Aeroflot 777 in Mexico that never departed on its scheduled return flight, and a 737 that I don't recall where. But this is a small drop in the bucket. These leasing companies are also going to have to deal with a large idle inventory after having come off of a pandemic-driven lull in their customers' business. You can imagine that some of these aircraft just underwent an expensive refurbishment only to wind up in a probable suboptimal storage again.

[@bobroberts2371]

Last I heard, Russian planes are still able to land in the US.

[@Markle2k]

​@@bobroberts2371 As of Wednesday 9pm EST, Russian planes are banned from US airspace except for in-flight emergencies, diplomatic and humanitarian missions.

[@DoughnutsInspace]

Petter do you know if Russian owned aircraft are were grounded in Europe, America, Canada etc. when the ban came into affect? Love to all Ukrainians around the world and at home, stay strong and keep the faith.

[@MentourNow]

I’m not sure if all the details at this point.

[@Misteribel]

I’ve read they were effectively grounded, because they were not allowed to fly back, or be serviced. However, most flew back through alternative routes, like Istanbul or Chisinau.

[@roichir7699]

More or less they are. The Antonov fleet in Leipzig will stay there as they are not permitted to fly. They have maintenance on the base, but that's about it.

[@azr2d1]

@@Misteribel If they weren't allowed to fly back they also weren't allowed to leave for any other destinations. It's about russian owned airlines being banned, not where they fly.

[@NicolaW72]

I readed reports that all-in-all nine Russian planes are stucking in EU and Switzerland: An A 320 from Aeroflot in Geneva/ Switzerland, another A 320 from Aeroflot in Munich/ Germany, a third A 320 from Aeroflot in Amsterdam/ Netherlands, a 747-8 Freighter of AirBridgeCargo and a 737-400 Freighter of Atran in Milano/ Italy, another 737-400 Freighter of Atran in Cologne/ Germany and three AN-124 Freighter of Volga-Dnepre-Airlines in Leipzig/ Germany. I´ve no informations about Canada and the US.

[@chellybub]

It's always funny when you point to the corner and say check out this video, as I watch picture in picture whilst reading etc 😂 I dunno why it seems so silly lol

[@bkinouye]

Most large companies do "business continuity planning" where they have a plan for each of various disruptive incidents. Hopefully these sanctions did not surprise any of them.

[@robertjpayne]

hopefully it did.

[@dodoubleg2356]

DEFINITELY 1 of your better vids my friend...thought provoking!!! 😉👍👍✌️

[@Dogsnark]

Fascinating! I would never have thought about this.

[@androidemulator6952]

I think this is a great new style of aviation /business hybrid episodes

[@jimsmith5148]

The issue of nationalization of leased aircraft was discussed in the Russian government, but I don't know what decision was made. But even the appropriation of other people's property will not help the Russian fleet, you told in detail why - spare parts. Cannibalization is certainly a way out, but not for long.

[@Ticklestein]

6:36 - RIP Mriya.

[@johndoyle4723]

Thanks, very interesting discussion. I well remember taking an internal Aeroflot flight, we were planning to climb Mt Elbrus in Baksan valley,Mineraldy Vodi, apologies if spelling wrong, the Chechen war had just broken out, very scary flight.We climbed the mountain OK, but it was then closed for many years, we were one of the last UK groups to climb. I hope for peace in Ukraine.

[@maxthelab8457]

I used to work in Russia alot ( back and forth not resident ) and I went down to Mineralne-Vody on one occasion - on an Aeroflot TU-154. The whole internal flight scenario within Russia in those days was very scary to say the least.

[@zorktxandnand3774]

First off, thanks for acknowledging that the war in Ukraine is the most important story here, and lets all support the Ukraine, and boycott Russia! (specially Putin and all his friends) But it is very interesting to see how these measures are an example of how these (and other) sanctions will make life difficult for Putin. Plains are complex machines, and there will always be essential parts produced in other country's. There are very few high tech processes which can be done purely domestically without lots of extra time effort and lots of money. If this war drags on, these sanctions are going to hurt.

[@NicolaW72]

And if Russia destroy´s Ukraine succesfully the boycott will of course stay in place, too. Probably it will stay in place as long as Putin is the ruler of Russia.

[@ariedekker7350]

Thanks a lot for this video. It's going to have a big impact.

[@phoenixexploration3301.1]

Wow, never knew about this channel. Subbed...

[@jamesjacobs8785]

Very interesting, this is one perspective I wasn’t aware of.

[@mikemmikem2758]

Excellent video. Very enlightening.

[@danpatterson8009]

I didn't know Russia was so dependent on the west for maintenance and spares. Makes one wonder what Putin thought was going to happen. Was the An-225 down for maintenance right before the invasion? I would have thought it would have been moved out of harm's way if it had been possible.

[@derekstuart5234]

Apparently so, at least one of the engines was removed from a wing.

[@hassanalihusseini1717]

Very good video, but what will all this mean for the safety of aviation within Russia, or on International flights once the sanctions are lifted? Hope there are some Russian generals that will overthrow Putin.

[@MentourNow]

There is going to be a lot of work needed after this is all over to makes sure everything returns to normal again.

[@gcm747]

The return of those leased aircraft is going to be a logistical nightmare.

[@mrkrsl_]

Is there a follow-up on this, 18 months later? Has Russian aviation diminished? Did they hand all the leased planes back? (I thought I read that they would default on the contracts and keep them.) Have they avoided sanctions on components somehow? Has safety nosedived? Would love to get an update.

[@April_Crawford]

Thank you so much for covering this. My heart breaks for the Ukrainian people 💔🇺🇦🇨🇦

[@aguiladescalzada]

Superb and insightful series. - 30+ year aviation guy.

[@deanrodriguez4132]

Awesome information, thank you.

[@MikkoRantalainen]

Some people have also claimed that all the maintenance documentation is nowadays in the cloud and the sanctions even prevent the Russian engineers to read the documentation for the maintenance procedures. Do you have any information if this is indeed true?

[@mbak7801]

Does Russia hold slots for trans Atlantic and trans Pacific routes? Will they lose them to other carriers? Will such loss be permanent until a carrier decides to relinquish them?

[@petepeterson7230]

My wife and where very much considering using Aeroflot as part of our journey to the Eagle Festival in Mongolia Oct. this year. We have to make commitments with the tour operator in Ulaanbaatar in March. So from the US to Moscow (two nights) then to Ulaanbaatar both legs via Aeroflot. Then after the festival on to Seoul then back to the US. Thus completing a around the world trip we so wanted to accomplish. Besides the war and carnage unleashed on the people of Ukraine what was Putin thinking would happen to economy of say Moscow or St. Petersburg from the tourist like us that want to visit these beautiful cities? I'll be dead and buried before I consider flying to Russia after this insanity Putin has inflicted.

[@amrchhhh]

As a Russian citizen I think "our" government made a biggest fatal mistake. Even if we would be able to massively produce these engines it still means that we are banned from all the electronical components and it's virtually impossible to replace with domestic product. Which means that until sanctions will be cancelled we are going to have an iron curtain 2.0 This video explains it perfectly

[@АН610]

любые санкции можно обойти..мир велик как и аллах.

[@amrchhhh]

@@АН610 при капитализме без проблем всё можно решить, готовь только платить двойную цену за костыли и "посредников"

[@Robert-uo6qi]

Strength to You Brother, but I Hate Your Government… When did it be OK to get away from the Words of Stalin? These in Power now have no interest in the Workers plight.. they step on them worse than Soviets… at least most Soviets cared about Their Working Brothers and Sisters.

[@amrchhhh]

@@Robert-uo6qi well Soviets didn't too... Democracy in Russia was briefly spotted just in the dark age of economic disaster during the 90's... Soviet dictatorship cost us a tremendous cost in progress after all..

[@MrPaukann]

It's definitely possible, just takes time and money. I doubt the avionics and various ECUs use very modern microprocessors. From what I've heard, they all use pretty big process standards (more than 65nm) and Russia has that manufacturing capability. A grant for the development of manufacturing equipment capable of going down to 16nm or less has been awarded this Autumn.

[@kevinrtres]

Very, interesting! thank you so much!

[@Rhinozherous]

Thank you for the insight!

[@nerysghemor5781]

Sadly, I think you underestimate the extent to which a) Putin will allow the airlines to honor their contracts even if they want to, and b) the extent to which Putin will be willing to force his airlines to do unsafe things that endanger Russian passengers on domestic flights. I’m sorry to say, I will not be surprised if, should the war continues into the longer term, we begin to hear leaks of unfortunate accidents and casualties because the airlines were forced to keep flying planes that were not airworthy. The only thing that may prevent that would be pilots and maintenance crews walking off the job rather than be used in that way. If so, they could be at grave personal risk, so let’s pray for them.

[@murphychurch8251]

Absolutely agree. I'm surprised he hasn't declared the aircrafts to be confiscated yet. Probably it's only because they are useless without spare parts- and he probably doesn't want to make such a public announcement which highlights the fact that using these aircrafts without proper maintenance is going to happen.

[@nerysghemor5781]

@@murphychurch8251 Yeah, sounds about right. But whether loudly or quietly I think stuff is going to go down. Literally. 😢

[@georgew2014]

There is a plan to 'nationalize" the planes. And to handle MRO domestically. But there' aren't enough skilled people for that to succeed. And the spare parts are still a problem.

[@stephen_101]

You can bet China will ignore these sanctions and still supply maintenance and parts to Russia. I think this might somewhat cushion the blow on the long haul aircraft.

[@jacobunofficial1146]

China doesn't care about anything but it's money. As long as China is getting money from Russia it will support it and the moment they think it's not worth anymore they will dump Russia.

[@Angelum_Band]

Again. Imagine China, Saudi Arabia, Israel, India, Mexico are siding with Russia. Who's being affected again?

[@TheNixie1972]

Does China produce Boeing or Airbus spare parts? And will Boeing/Airbus certify these parts for use in commercial aircrafts? Same for the engine manufacturers.

[@090giver090]

@@jacobunofficial1146 China gets A LOT more money from EU and US than from Russia. They might make occasional "favours" to Russia in obtaining some peaces here and there but nothing too serious to upset their main moneymakers.

[@stephen_101]

@@TheNixie1972 They could produce PMA parts. And as Chinese operated airliners like 737s / A320s and A330s are retired from their fleets, tearing them down for spare parts and repairing components could be lucrative.

[@Vladdy89]

There is a good Russian word for all of this "Pizdets". It goes to all Russian economy. Here is an example of this word usage: CAP: Descending to 600 course 360 Aeroflot 821 F/O: Take it take it CAP: What do you mean fucking take it (Bank angle, Bank angle) CAP: I can't do it either (Bank angle, Bank angle) F/O: Other way other directions (Bank angle,Bank angle) F/O: Fucking hell CAP: Well F/O: What the Fuck are we doing? (Bank angle,Bank angle) ATC: 821 contact tower approach 127.1 F/O: Fuck! CAP: Pizdets! SOUND OF IMPACT END OF RECORDING

[@ladderzombie]

Hasn't something very similar in terms of maintenance and spares been the case in Iran prior to JCPOA? They certainly made do with what they had, but it obviously greatly decreased the overall safety of air travel in Iran. It will probably be the same in Russia now, only on a much larger scale. (And a sad return to the 90s when I remember flying in Russia was also rather unsafe and there were a lot of crashes)

[@scroungasworkshop4663]

I wonder how much of this stuff “Vlad the Invader” took into consideration before he made a move. Even us people at the bottom of the world, seemingly a million miles from all this feel for the people of Ukraine. Stealing another country, killing people and probably sending a lot of the people of Russia into poverty just to satisfy one man’s egotistical ideology is simply incomprehensible to me. Wishing all the people of Ukraine 🇺🇦 the very best in their fight for their country and freedom. Cheers Stuart 🇦🇺

[@davidmacdonald1695]

Well said - and don't forget we are in an ever-shrinking world. This means we all inhabit the same neighbourhood, irrespective of precise geographic location, hemisphere etc. Australia is highly relevant in geopolitics these days and is one of the strongest beacons for freedom anywhere. Long may it remain that way.

[@fuzzblightyear145]

There was a great episode of a British comedy series in the 80's ("yes, Prime Minister") that even then described how the then Soviet Union wouldn't start an all out war, it would be the "salami effect". They'd take a little slice of Poland here, a piece of LIthuania there; thinking that the West wouldn;t join a war over little skirmishes. We did nothing over Crimea, nothing over the initial Donbas fighting, so he probably thought we'd do nothing about Ukraine either. (even waving his "Nuke" card around.)

[@scroungasworkshop4663]

@@fuzzblightyear145 One of the many great British comedies. I absolutely loved it. A hospital with no patients is very efficient 😂😂😂