The Fight for Ukraine with Peter Zeihan & Daniel Bilak | Global Alts -January 31, 2023

Peter Zeihan, geopolitical analyst of @ZeihanonGeopolitics , and Daniel Bilak, Ukrainian Volunteer Serviceman and Partner at Kinstellar, discuss the status of Ukraine's fight against Russia. They discuss key battlefield dynamics, current global repercussions and long-term implications for the world.
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Time Stamps:
(0:00) - What is the situation like in Ukraine?
(3:59) - How do you think this will end?
(7:32) - What Peter sees for the future?
(10:57) - How should investors think about this situation?
(16:20) - What it will take for Ukraine to win and investing with Russia
(19:46) - Demographics
(23:20) - Sanctions
(27:20) - What the west will do

[@iconnections2984]

Thanks for watching! Be sure to LIKE & SUBSCRIBE for more videos with leading experts on world affairs, investing and more 👍

[@QuizmasterLaw]

Ukraine will win. This ends with Putin dead or in the docket for war crimes.

[@chrise842]

I thought that was Klaus Schwab sitting next to Peter Wouldn't have surprised me to see hardcore globalists united.😂

[@nickbryantfyi]

Zeihan is the happiest doomsayer in the world. I love his vibe, sometimes i don't even realizing he's saying everything is collapsing.

[@TheAnkurp09]

Propaganda

[@jeffreystanley7884]

Peter is a smart man who has been right for well over a decade and people are finally realizing it.

[@carlfrye1566]

He does seem calm for a guy who says the world is going to sh#t. Does he have a secret "safe place" to go live in?

[@TheAnkurp09]

@@carlfrye1566 it's in amerikaaa obviously

[@nickbryantfyi]

@@carlfrye1566 absolutely, his cabin in the highlands of colorado

[@dinosaurdude5668]

Great video, thanks for posting

[@davidtexter913]

Please post date of this conference. Helps especially as new dynamics unfold. Thanks!

[@bob-rogers]

It ended Feb 2, 2023.

[@noahway13]

I wish that were a rule for all posted videos. Would be so easy to do. Like, I'll watch a podcast, and the guest says, "I'll have a book coming out next month!" You don't know when it was posted, what month, even what year.

[@iconnections2984]

Jan 31, 2023. Added to title.

[@gregparrott]

@@iconnections2984 Thanks for adding the date. This really helps.

[@fpham8004]

I like Peter Zeihan's cheerful optimism.

[@fotogwaii]

dillusional

[@AnarchistHamster]

😂

[@FirstLast-kh2ks]

Facts suck for idiots like you. What is it like being wrong all the time? Do you ever notice a pattern?

[@scleeb]

😂😊

[@curtiswilken4912]

Go watch a COL MacGregor video for some balance. Uncheer you up.

[@zacharyferreira2469]

I have heard Peter Zeihan speak on Ukraine and Russia almost weekly since before the war began. This is the first time I have heard him state he believes there will be a nuclear exchange with Russia before this is over, whether Ukraine wins or loses. That is a genuine shift in his perspective that he has not stated before.

[@Sarah-sv6wg]

First I heard it from him too.

[@ludwigvonsowell5347]

Same here, although he is of the opinion that the US just has to nuke putin, putin has too broad of a target and no specific target could topple the US.

[@cwpo1973]

That's not what he said. He elaborates more in other talks, but he said if Ukraine loses, Russia will then push farther beyond Ukraine, and that WILL become a fight with NATO which Russia will starkly lose, and that will lead to a last resort nuclear exchange initiated by Russia. All of this is to explain why it's so important to prevent a Ukrainian loss and to prevent that awful scenario.

[@zacharyferreira2469]

@@cwpo1973 I have also heard him say many times that a victory over Ukraine would bring Russia into direct conflict with NATO. Perhaps it was just a different choice of words but I have never heard him say that a conflict with NATO ipso facto entails a nuclear exchange. I have heard him say previously that in a direct conflict with NATO he viewed the use of nuclear weapons by Russia to be unlikely because it would bring the full military force of NATO against the Russian regime that would all but guarantee the end of life for most or all of the power circle around Putin on a very personal level. (Basically Putin knows he is dead if he ever used a nuke) But here Peter said quite starkly: “there will be a nuclear exchange”. That to me is sounds like shift in his assessment of the risk, a change in his view of Putin’s propensity to use nukes to bring the war to NATO or even a change in his view of the likelihood of NATO to retaliate with nukes after a Russian first strike.

[@zacharyferreira2469]

Note Zeihan’s view as of 5 months ago. A much less categorical, much more skeptical view. Yesterday he was quite categorical and convinced. kzbin.info/www/bejne/earLnJWmeKiSe7c

[@VitaminStudios]

This was NOT long enough, I could listen to both of these guys for hours!

[@samuelroselli138]

Why?

[@DrGitpaws]

Yes. A VERY complicated world we live in, but this is the first step. Getting reliable sources who support democracy and yet won't hide the real world problems.

[@deltavee2]

A solid hour with both of them would almost suffice.

[@vidinius12]

bc lies sounds good

[@TheStringBreaker]

*Great insights from Peter and Daniel!* Excellent line of questioning from the host as well!

[@hagestad]

Daniel is talking absolute rubbish by saying EU is not trading with Russia anymore. Guess where our oil comes from. If not directly from Russia its from Saudi Arabia. And saudis buy that oil straight from Russia. Everyone in EU just pretends not to trade with Russia.

[@lapserdak24]

​@@hagestadstill a good , means less money ends up in Mordor. Not good enough perhaps - push your elected officials.

[@colacurciolaw7745]

The comments below show rare respect for each others' opinions. Thank you all for reminding me of KZbin's potential.

[@brandonboi9465]

Until peter zeihan pointed it out, I never thought of the EV revolution "not" being possible. We thought oil politics was bad enough. But in order to have a green revolution we need a whole host of other countries AND we still need Iran, China, Russia, etc. In order to have one PLUS we need to somehow double, triple, quadruple, and so on, all the major inputs. And I don't think a lot of people who want an EV/Green revolution have ever considered the amount of strip mining and industry that will be needed in order to pull it off. Yikes.

[@LRRPFco52]

Imagine if Russian, Chinese, and other countries with these resources are bribing US politicians to support "green" energy in the US.

[@brandonboi9465]

@@LRRPFco52 Makes sense from a political standpoint. If you can help convince a large percentage of the U.S population to believe in green revolution with a religious fervor, you guarantee a level of leverage against the U.S since they couldn't do it without you. Much less quell the voices of said people.

[@andsoitgoes631]

@@brandonboi9465 Our backs are now up against a wall, we have no choice but to disengage from dirty energy. The lifestyle that we have enjoyed for so long is about to change.

[@stan3452344]

Batteries are not the answer for all the reasons mentioned. True EVs will need different energy source. Producing batteries is dirty and can be net negative for the environment. Wait until we have to deal with disposing of all the solar panels and vehicle batteries. It won't be easy or clean.

[@brandonboi9465]

@@stan3452344 I get that point. (Which is true). But it's the procurement of the resources needed that will be untenable. If for any reason a conflict were to brake out that interfered with shipping the whole system could grind to a halt. Say in a hypothetical scenario, the United States winds up in a country wide wrecking war. (Idk? Say aliens? Lol). The entire world would be unable to produce electronics ranging from semiconductors,chips, motherboards, solar panels, etc. Because of one reason. 90%+ of the high grade silica quartz needed is mined in North Carolina

[@serge4274]

Wow, amazing! ❤

[@demven04]

Great speeches, great guests, thank you!

[@learn-to-read]

What a powerful discussion. Every day I become more convinced that life is still worth living. Semper Fi - Thank You 😍

[@tedgayer336]

Thank you for your service.

[@FMartini1960]

Only if we don’t have a nuclear exchange

[@bearwill4737]

@@FMartini1960, The defective damaged brain that has caused this all, has to be excised, I was hoping his people would do it & save the planet. Disabled Vet, praying for world Peace & Freedom to all mankind.

[@arthurpeters1996]

Seriously, the world is exciting

[@sjones5616]

Life is always worth living Marine. Semper Fortis.

[@pcka12]

Belgium was created as a buffer zone following the Napoleonic Wars!

[@OoO-rf2gt]

Belgium is like the space between a person's ears after getting shot in the head.

[@johncahill3644]

I’m an old guy and I’ve been watching the world change and shift for a good while now. I will just say that Peter Zeihan is very good at posing problems, but not as insightful at seeing likely solutions. Where he sees chaos, I see a re-shuffling. All in all, I lean towards Daniel Bilak’s point of view. But we’ll see soon enough!

[@alg54]

Well said.

[@alexlucassen8489]

Wel said nr.2

[@EskayDuro]

I respectfully disagree with you Sir. Mr. Bilak's thoughts on a dual power world aren't possible in the future. In my opinion, the world will see the US retract and lose interest in the larger world as a whole...including the EU and Ukraine...Russia is dying of old age and corruption..same as China...it's ALL...EU included.. going to collapse...

[@bobbybrown1258]

Peter zeihan also misunderstamds several fundamental sectors at a factual level which makes a lot of his analysis flawed, as well as his usual hyperbole

[@sandymilne224]

Both are right in some sense. Hard to argue against demographics. If one looks at KZbin videos of European Empires from 100 BC to present, one really gets the fact that empires come and go. Countries come and go. That’s reality and that’s a constant. So get used to probably another 30 countries being in existence as the current empires break apart. War is always a constant too so never forget how to defend yourself and find food because if you want to survive, those two things make the difference between life and death for you and your family.

[@Kimmbaap]

Can clearly see how emotions clouds judgement.

[@thomasschaefer9312]

awesome discussion..

[@MattBargain]

As much as I like Peter, he really has figured out how to make a show out of geo politics and come up with lots of absolute arguments. They are nice and easy to understand but the world is more complex than that.

[@sgtNACHO]

Agree. I like him and his book. I think he has alot of well researched assumptions. I have listened to many many many of his talks and what not and he knows how to sell a presentation. Very smart, very knowledgable, and his ideas should be given quite a decent amount of credence. However he does see everything from a kind of A+B=C so C-B=A kind of thinking. I think he is right about globalism decreasing, at least without a huge leap in some form of tech. Definitely right about demographics. However I think he has bought his own kool-aid a bit. Pessimism is generally right about general things and very wrong about personal things. Overall tough times ahead, but America is too invested into the global system to just stop caring about it. We could, and we could do it easily compared to everyone else, but we aren't going to rip off that band-aid until we have no choice.

[@buddermonger2000]

​@@sgtNACHOWell we're running out of choice. There's less and less places to put the money and we're less and less willing to put our military overseas in other places. We're less and less willing to subsidize the whole world at our own expense, and believe me, it's at our own expense. America is a lot less invested in the global system than you realize as well. It is number lowest 4 for trade to GDP ratio above Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Sudan. And remember that half of THAT is Canada and Mexico. The US and Mexico can genuinely go home tomorrow and it'd basically not notice because they really only trade with each other. The only critical import left in the US is semiconductors which are being built in the US and Mexico as we speak. It's over we're going home.

[@RawandCookedVegan]

"There is a cost to doing business with tyrants and autocrats.". Exactly.

[@MrSergecj]

7:30 - no chance you are going to Crimea this summer for a holiday.

[@realdemocracy11]

Great talk. Interview Brian Berletic next. He's the best on this issue.

[@MurderousIndifference]

“We fight, we die…. I mean you know figuratively. I’m not into dying, that’s for someone else to do.”

[@j.e.a.6213]

Who said this?

[@docr8197]

This is the best,well presented explanation and humanistic presentation of this conflict that I've seen. I've never had a canadian make me feel good about being an american. Our country has done many things I'm not very proud of- but as a global power its what we as a people stand for, the " what's the right thing to do" motive that really is the basis for our country's greatness. Not our economy, not our military,not our pollitics but our desire and love of independance and individual rights - self respect. And he's a Canadain/Ukrainian - wow - thank you !!!

[@JOMFRUHOLMEN]

bless ur country

[@jwjw832]

Extremely aptly said, man. I was really moved by the canook's first 5 minutes and one can tell he is speaking from a good heart...

[@sempressfi]

Yeah I've had Ukrainians thank me/us while doing some OSINT work and it never fails to catch me off guard in the best way when it happens, whether in that context or hearing it in a general context like this video. Like you said, we have had some really effed up times and many of our fellow citizens have been on plenty of the wrong sides of history in moments that it really matters but this past year...it gave me a boost I didn't know I needed to see the way the majority of us have been standing together. And the world in general. Have worked with many Europeans, some people from Africa, a few from S America and Asia...really humbling and gratifying to work with them and work to do my small part in helping Ukraine and democracy Slava ukraini!

[@DianaDeLuna]

​@Sempress Героям слава! And yes, this year has inspired me in ways I never expected. And the feeling of camaraderie with people in so many countries. It's been a tragic but amazing uplifting year.

[@MrR40388]

A nuclear exchange is too high a price to pay for the freedom of Ukraine. Diplomacy is the only solution.

[@richsmith4363]

I appreciate Daniel’s view of principle.

[@SDCSW3333]

@cpscott15 I’m really curious what you think of their assessment on the war in Ukraine?

[@4LordaeronGLHF]

Germany (and other european countries) have re-opened their old coal plants in order to restore sufficient energy and heat. It's not as cataclysmic as one is lead to think when listening to Mr. Zeihan.

[@melangehans]

There's also no sign of a "collapse of the german industrial base" as he keeps harping on about. I just saw him in a talk saying "if you want a BMW buy it now because it'll be the last ones produced" which is just unbelievably stupid. He seems to have some valuable insights but his blatant american chauvinist biases really makes me question his wisdom.

[@ramonschliszka6332]

Germany opened their coal mines because they decided to shut down their nuclear power plants. It’s one of the reasons Putin started the war as he must have believed to get away with it. And seeing the German reluctance to deliver weapons, he was right. Thank god Germany is not the only country in Europe.

[@careylymanjones]

@@melangehans Much of German industry is based on petrochemicals. No petrol, no chemicals. Germany didn't just use Russian oil and gas for fuel. It used it for feed stocks. Germany doesn't have enough oil and gas to heat their homes AND run their chemical industry. BASF is moving capacity to the US, where oil and gas are readily available.

[@buddermonger2000]

Energy and heat does not industry make. Remember that the reason they had enough leftover stock for the winter was that they lowered industrial production to prioritize those for the citizens. Great for living conditions, terrible for industry, and continued economic growth. Now, because of that, energy costs in Germany are simply significantly higher for industry. Most industry can not run at the scale that it did before the sanctions. Like someone else said, those petrochemicals are vital, and so BASF is now in Louisiana to try to ship it back to Germany. That is not an optimal model and shows that stuff is probably going to shrink. Coal also means that there is no green transition. The only thing is that national collapses do not necessarily imply that a country simply goes off the map or something like that. Even if the German economy completely broke and they had a crunch of 50% reduction in GDP, people would still live lives and they'd probably have power etc. Even in wars when the government surrenders and the whole country is occupied so the country is removed from the map, the people are still there and they live their lives. They will still go to work, hang out with friends, go to bed, the whole nine yards. It doesn't mean what you think it means.

[@jiminy82]

​@@melangehansGermany is now in recession... and it only appears to be getting worse. Might want to reassess your own bias. BMW sells 1 in 3 cars to China, think that is remotely sustainable?

[@ranradd]

Great talk. Thanks for posting.

[@Tibetan-Phosar]

Where can I find the full length of this conversation?

[@ucake]

Located in Belgium, I can testify his observation on Belgium 28:56 is 190% correct

[@lindamarsh3335]

I just love the Canadian , Daniel. Praying for Ukraine, and peace and freedom for them, very soon.🙏❤️🙏🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇲

[@JoseLopez-vp8vu]

Go join them they need your help

[@arthurpeters1996]

@@JoseLopez-vp8vu Ukrainians don’t need bodies. They need weapons.

[@karinfroller7403]

Thank you, Linda. You are a good hearted person. And no, Ukraine is not asking it's allies to send their soldiers, let alone their civilians, they just ask for weapons and ammunition.

[@Btn1136]

@@karinfroller7403 oh they take our money too

[@crhu319]

Deport him. He's not a Canadian.

[@dylanstraub9612]

Don't back your enemy so far into the corner because history has shown that never ends well.

[@gutstompenrocker]

I was wondering why Peter hadn't posted new material over the last couple days. As a side note, that girl doing the interview is pretty hot.

[@johnross278]

Two fantastic men... May God bless them both and all they stand for. But come on, Zeihan is the Sh..! He just rocks it powerfully.

[@sugarfreedom]

The solution is an economy of experience instead of extraction. It’s time to realize that expanding industry is not the only way to expand opportunities. Art, sport, personal development and culture create minimum waste, maximum joy. Go local, or go extinct.

[@TrevorEMayo]

tell me where can I buy a dashiki and learn how to rub two sticks together?

[@andsoitgoes631]

We have not choice about moving away from dirty fuels. Our backs are against the wall now. People will now change, because they now have no choice but to change. Fossil fuel companies will do everything in their considerable power to prevent this....

[@TrevorEMayo]

@@andsoitgoes631 Hmm. People are going to have a choice between a significantly lower standard of living or burning fossil fuels. I wonder what will they choose?

[@sixtyfive0]

Oh if horse could fly

[@gandydancer9710]

"Art, sport, personal development and culture create minimum waste..." Yeah, let's all eat art, between making a living taking in each other's washing.

[@timwilkinson3139]

They go from there will be a nuclear exchange to ok how will this effect markets?

[@David-ek4fh]

There it is! Investors.

[@IncongruousJones]

That's a fantastic looking shirt Mr. Bilak is wearing! Слава Україні! Героям слава!

[@hidonte]

Thanks for delivering the right information to the mass

[@patclark2186]

Good stuss. But I wish the title would time/date stamp them

[@josephhartmann6976]

28:55 Belgium ^^

[@dubrulphilippe3815]

Im from belgium, and "Belgium" is pretending to want to give tanks for Ukraine but in reality we don't want to give Anything! We just need to pretend because we don't want geo engineered earthquakes or bio attack from us neo cons !

[@inisus]

I'm from Belgium lol

[@josephhartmann6976]

​@@inisus Is it True what he is saying? I don't think so. By the way I am from Austria.

[@gillandcleveford5925]

It's so weird to see the contrast between Peter's fantastic shirt, jacket and tie combo and the frumpy socks and shoes.

[@jayl271322]

First interview of this type I've seen that had "y'all" in the intro.

[@faithmacgregor340]

Go get em! Victory for Ukraine!

[@jakubjodlowski8416]

Wow

[@jankowalyk7301]

Great discussion.

[@sarahofswords]

Peter Zeihan popping off like the astronomers in "Don't Look Up."

[@FreemonSandlewould]

This is the NeoCon version of Charlie Sheen's "Winning!"

[@lovman]

Daniel Bilek - future political leader for Canada, after surviving this war, if he chooses.

[@123axel123]

Survivking? He is just wearing self styled hippie Ukrainian uniform. Too many people like him and Ukraine will lose the western support. He is simply too aggressive. Wouldn't stand a chance in Canada

[@mclarenscca]

My theory is that, within the next decade, or decade and a half, it wont matter! We will be worrying about how we ALL are going to survive the upcoming cyclic events!

[@whazzat8015]

Jan 30 - ⁠Feb 02, 2023 ? I hope Zeihan's tailor has got his eyesight back, since then. " Ukraine is just a step." old Cossack saying

[@arthurkineard7356]

I liked it.

[@epluribusu9430]

Haaaa! Hope his tailor has moved on.

[@ChatGPT1111]

What, you don't like seeing the top of his horizontally striped socks?

[@pseudoscientist8010]

Those ties are a norm...

[@pseudoscientist8010]

Those ties are a norm...

[@inkeldinky]

If a comment advocating against supporting UA seems fake, it probably is. People in forced labour camps are forced to post these kind of things. Keywords to look out for are references to Russian or Chinese talking points, like the disaster in Ohio.

[@kevinburke2446]

You sound brainwashed as fuck and idiotic. Fuck ukraine

[@SynchronicitySOS]

Most of these folks were whining about sending money to Ukraine long before the train derailment in East Palestine. It was never about Ohio. Just more culture war bullshit.

[@r.a.5086]

@@SynchronicitySOS That culture war has just found its way into Texas' water and neither Biden nor Kamala bothered to take a couple hundred mile trip to see those people--but Trump did. Check yourself and get your priorities straight.

[@mr.goldfish7473]

im glad youve joined the party but stuff like that has been going on since 2001

[@dennyo3992]

It's getting more difficult to pick the russian trolls apart from the Fox News viewers!

[@greenhammer3263]

What does he mean by fight to the end?

[@qcc9062]

Not bad

[@bohdanburban5069]

Belgium isn't waffling now. Epic.

[@reelguyoutdoors5536]

Daniel lost me at "we are going to rebuild green".

[@jpipaj]

Truth.. the rebuild would by the way of fossil fuels

[@listener523]

Yeah and Ukraine as a model for a new order. Now I kinda hope they lose.

[@xqt39a]

I have always thought Ukraine will be thrown under the bus. That will be very sad

[@mvonwalter6927]

and also the tyrants vs democratic societies dualism when no one in the west seems to have any issues providing protection for, and doing business with, the gulf states.

[@musingsbymarco5001]

And Peter lost me at "we can't do the EV revolution". The guy's understanding of batteries and EV's is so bad that I get embarrassed for him when he talks about it. He's so smart about many other things, but what often happens when you see a generalist speak about an area that you're an expert in, you realize you can't trust generalists in all areas. It gives me doubts about some of his other views but they seem much more straightforward so I'm inclined to believe him in most other things.

[@ahkee369]

Peter Zeihan is here to promote his books & talks. To do that his predictions must capture your senses of fear, anger & compassion. Don’t take what he said seriously. Mostly fictions.

[@TheDev139]

As a Belgian .. cute remark Peter

[@hagestad]

Entire Europe feels that way

[@heidi22209]

Ukraine: "we love a challenge!" Russia: "if he dies, he dies "

[@Niko-iv4ch]

I worked for Halliburton. We always felt like it was the least ethical companies. But if it discovered an error where by it underpaid its employees. It would correct the error. I can’t say that for other companies I worked at.

[@TrevorEMayo]

The unethical always have lots of profits to share if they choose to do so.

[@palmbeachcitizen]

Under paying their employees wasn't the problem.

[@willmcfarland1455]

Wow. Where have we heard all this before?

[@tux1968]

Where?

[@vtecro1826]

Jim Sim... these 2 guys know exactly what is happening what is coming the whole planet must take notice . There are big changes coming people need to think about economizing using less natural resources what there is needs to be distributed evenly .or countries will fight over what is available .potential for more loss of life .this applies to all parts of the planet .

[@randycastillo1353]

If you listen to one zeihan lecture you have heard them all

[@apenguingames4305]

Not true, but when you ask him the same questions he gives the same answers.

[@espn2829a]

@@apenguingames4305 I wonder where he gets his stats about Russian military in Ukraine from. Probably the same source as rest of the fake news Western media.

[@duckling9854]

He is just like Gordon Chang. Talking n predicting. Nothing came true.

[@johnf8064]

Yeah, so what? He's a geostrategist. Geology has it's own time, and doesn't change much.

[@gusgee1337]

I suggest you read Diamond's "Guns, Germs and Steel" and "Collapse".

[@pjohnson81]

The joke about Halliburton is a very scary double-think example. Halliburton is incentivized to leave Russia anyway given their terminal demographic, and as we know with the war and Iraq in 2003, they would be incentivized to prefer to rebuild Ukraine. I’ve liked Zeihan’s work but he may have admitted something pretty nefarious between the lines

[@samuelroselli138]

Isn’t it always really about the discrepancy between who bears the risk (indoctrinated lower enlisted) and who profits (MIC CEOs and shareholders)? Oh, sorry. I forgot the west and Ukraine is Mother Theresa, Putin is Hitler, and this isn’t about insiders profiting at all. WMDs in Iraq anyone? How about those German f104’s?

[@BCSTS]

Please explain.....I missed it...but am somewhat suspicious of him...& is he has hidden agenda

[@pjohnson81]

@@BCSTS He made a joke about how EVEN Halliburton who is borderline unethical is cutting its monetary gain from Russia’s energy industry. it’s understandable to be concerned about hidden agendas. However for the most part, beginning with Peter’s 2014 book, there are ALOT of good reasons that what he is saying is valid as to why Russia invaded Ukraine, and why the US should support Ukraine. On one hand the public shouldn’t try to be the ones to draw conclusions based on incomplete information, even if it (hidden agenda) simplifies their world viewpoint. That being said, we should be watchful of our leaders and industry to repeat the mistakes of the 2000’s.

[@moosehead4497]

Notice the audience they speaking to, ultra rich financial types. All of them looking for their next buck.Double speak is normal practice

[@moosehead4497]

And yeah. Its always about the oil and gas. Everyone seems to forget that US Miltary and NATO still currently occupying 1/3rd of all of Syria. And it's also the same part od the country where the oil and gas is and where Russia wanted to build a pipeline. Crazy coincidence right?

[@briancase6180]

Yes. For the US and the West, arming and supporting Ukraine with economic aid is the best deal we could hope for. Russia will make trouble beyond anything we can conceive if we don't diminish their military now. Russia has managed to wake up, unite, and expand NATO better than we could. Russia has poked Ukraine into reminding the US and the West in general that our democracy does matter, that our way of life--the rule of law--is worth fighting and sacrificing for. Thanks Ukraine! Go Ukraine! 🇺🇦

[@Kavala76]

Where does this "3 day" claim come from? I'm not aware of any Russian ever saying that.

[@user-wm5rt9pw5l]

In the first week of the war, Russian propaganda published many articles and news in which they predicted the fall of Kyiv within days. From there it started.

[@fotogwaii]

"it's amusing" did i hear that right ??

[@partofme100]

Daniel Bilak is such a dreamer! Not a speck of realism in his thought process. (That's why this war is still going on) Good that Peter Z, is there!

[@djblame8954]

He is winning the hearts and minds of Americans in light of the upcoming election...Reverse propaganda

[@123axel123]

Dreamer but also very aggressive and unlikable. I dont trust people like Bilak

[@HaaraaldEriksson]

Well it's clear why: he is a propagandist - he has to be. His mission is not to inform us, or have an enlightening debate that uncovers new truths about the course of the war. His mission is to rally support - in- and outside of Ukraine. So he has to cheese up his words.

[@10317]

Daniel struck me as idealistic. But his heart is in the right place. I agree with Peter and the last words he used were eye opening (go back and listen) maybe chilling. I don’t know what Putin was thinking when planning this war. Did he think the United States was falling apart? That’s silly we are always bitching. But the minute we hear the star spangled banner (national anthem) and see the American 🇺🇸 flag everyone stops and holds their right hand over their heart. We do this right before every sports game. Grade school, high school, college and professional sports. You people in other countries need to know that. And the song we sing comes from the war of 1812. Freedom is very deer to Americans. We just remember what happened in World War Two and we don’t want another one. So I hope Putin refrains from going nuclear. That would be disastrous for his country. That was what Peter was alluding to. Sorry to make this so long.

[@123axel123]

@@HaaraaldEriksson I support Ukraine but people like Bilak makes my think that both sides are corrupt and rotten. Would you buy a used car from Bilak?

[@HoopsKevinski]

"We weren't supposed to be here". He shoulda looked square at Peter *"When (Not If) Russia Wins"* Zeihan when he said that.

[@carlcascone3073]

Who is the host?

[@barcode6495]

Peter the convoy was 20 miles long and now it was 40 miles long. That is peter

[@MorphousInfinity]

Daniel Bilak had to have the last word, ironically a power move more suited to Putin than to him...

[@allenfromalameda5691]

He’s literally fighting a war for survival so it’s important to remind everyone, everywhere, all at this once that although it feels remote and contained, the outcome of this war will shape the next century.

[@hagestad]

@@allenfromalameda5691 not his survival. he would just go back to Canada if s..t hits the fan

[@thomasjacks936]

Major conflicts, tensions, and now war in recent history are most often if not exclusive to Democracy versus Autocracy/Dictatorship. Putin sees the chronology of Democracy's spread (Arab Spring, Ukraine, etc.) and cannot allow this to happen in his country (a small version was attempted during the last Russian "election"). His concept of power cannot exist within a Democracy. Hence, this is not so much a USA or NATO versus Russia - although these are the rally cries from the Kremlin - as much as the expansion of Democracy versus Russian Autocracy. Zeihan speaks to the logistics of Russia's strategy for security, but their concept is steeped in how countries have changed and are changing in the past 20 years. For those who try to understand Russia (not sympathize) by "blaming" the bordering threat of NATO, one must first conclude how many countries has NATO attacked (offensively), annexed, or empirically colonized? None, ever. Even if Russia wins, imagine how crippled they'll be at wars end. Peter explains how bad they are at conventional warfare and how human numbers are their only non-nuclear strategy. Imagine a vulnerable Russia at wars end, even if they win against Ukraine - where Poland could easily defeat Russia's residual military in short order......this is where Russia's nuclear weapon use becomes most dangerous, in my opinion.

[@ManuelGarcia-ww7gj]

In war, it is necessary to coerce your allies as much as it is to defeat your enemy. In this case, President Rubber Tree decided to coerce Germany into staying on our side and not making a compromise with Russia. I think that was a very bad decision, but then I think that the man's abilities are very similar to those of a Rubber Plant.

[@amuroray2505]

Bad decision to not side with a goverment that kidnaps children and murders people in the street all in the name of national security? Lol

[@andreash7920]

Capital is like energy, it will not disappear with a old, dying generation but it will be entailed to the younger generation

[@badgerdad777]

I think Peter has good points/statistics and may be correct but he leans towards the doom and gloom and drama side so my click-bait red flag always comes up with him. Still, many of my beliefs of how this plays out, at least globally, come from what I've gleaned from him.

[@nomadtv6009]

When studying statistics and data, one plans for the worst while hoping for the best, no?

[@J-Woke]

The doom and gloom is him facing reality and being honest about his perspective

[@sgtNACHO]

Yes. I believe Peter knows what he is talking about, but we would have to really fuck everything up to just give up on the global system completely. We are way more interconnected then ever before. Short of WW3 or something Idk if globalism will ever truly die off, just really slow down a bit.

[@BashoStrikes]

Russia "may" break apart? Russia is breaking apart as we speak. I have a number of Russian friends, living in Russia, all of which don't agree with this war at all. They all have said they would rid their country of Putin and his wealthy ruling class of cronies in an instant if they could. So when one generally refers to "Russians" and "Russia" one must consider which group one is referring to - the average person, like most average people around the world, who generally doesn't agree with their rulers, or the ruling class perpetrating this horrible act.

[@xfactorb25222]

Break apart as in "Russia", becomes 10 to 20 different areas/countries... like the collapse of the Soviet Union.

[@BashoStrikes]

@@xfactorb25222 Not as these guys are referring to - breaking into different countries. That may happen eventually. It appears to my friends in Russia more average Russians don't agree with their government than do, and that number is growing - internal social breakdown.

[@Leto2ndAtreides]

It's a somewhat universal problem that modern governments and militaries are a little too powerful for citizens to overthrow even if they are corrupt. And the trend will likely continue, making governments increasingly less accountable to the people.

[@msmaryna961]

I see Russians living in the West proudly supporting this genocidal war. Putin is not the only driver of this war. Russian chauvinism has been around for centuries and is not exactly a hidden characteristic of their psyche. Time to accept Russians for who they are. Let them be medieval and focus on improving the rules-based world.

[@BashoStrikes]

@@Leto2ndAtreides That seems to be increasingly true with the U.S. as well.

[@dyu007]

Rebuilding Ukraine will not not be easy.

[@GetMoneyFuggBidges]

27:31 Nerdspeak

[@jameslecka8085]

Note: even the ever neutral Swiss are re-thinking military aid to Ukraine...the bloody Swiss yet!

[@karltooley7034]

I think there may be an eastern European union in the future. Peace for Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@Original50]

Yeah, but which Western-friendly crook will run it?

[@karltooley7034]

@Original50 who knows they are everywhere always

[@hansericsson7058]

Peter Zeihan is a miracle of knolege, and we just have to face this now. The world we lived in for all our lives isnt coming back. First we got to help Ukraine with more stuff to win this war, there is no other way out of this and the faster the better.

[@hagestad]

Yep but his take on getting cut of from Russian resources is bullshit. Russia still sells oil and everything else they have. Only difference is they are using other terrorist states like Saudi Arabia as a pawnbroker

[@TimSullins]

Jan 30 - ⁠Feb 02, 2023

[@petersadow3810]

Bilak brought me to tears comparing the founding of the US to volunteers in Ukraine.

[@charlesmyre7016]

I thought of that months ago, though I am not sure how far to take this analogy. The USA won its independence, from the mother country that didn’t think it was a separate nation, with the help of England’s arch enemy, France and 30 years later fought the War of 1812, to keep it’s independence. Now, England is our closest ally. Ukraine declared its independence in the early 1990’s, with the help of Russia’s ‘archenemy’ and 30 years later is fighting again against Russia. Who will be it’s closest ally in the future? The sad part is that America’s foreign policy is run by the same people who gave us 20 years in Afghanistan with what result. Our debt will eventually have its reckoning.

[@jessehorstman]

Even though he plans to vacation in Crimea this summer after Russia falls apart, this guy recommends becoming a compliance officer because in the "freedom believing" Ukranian Europe enforcing sanctions against Russia will be a reliable job for a lifetime.

[@josefigueiredo8022]

I feel sorry for the Ukrainian people if this guy is supposed to be defending them 🤷‍♂️🙈

[@simihillbilly]

Follow the MONEY... Who is Daniel Bilak? Daniel Bilak, Ukrainian Volunteer Serviceman and Partner at Kinstellar. Wikipedia on who is Kinstellar? "Kinstellar is an international law firm operating in Central and Eastern Europe, Turkey and Central Asia. It was formed in 2008 from the Bratislava, Bucharest, Budapest and Prague offices of Linklaters, and has since expanded into Bulgaria, Kazakhstan, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. The firm employs more than 250 lawyers, with a focus on business law in emerging markets." Who is iConnections? "iConnections is a team of professionals who are passionate about the investment industry."

[@romannumeral5547]

It's wondeeful to see a really intellectual and focused discussion on Ukraine/Russia war. Beyond the internal ramifications of each country but the effect on global economics. The world has become a lot more complex in the last 50 yrs requiring different approaches and strategies in solving world problems. However, I highly doubt that the average Ukranian is thinking of anything other than getting Russia out of Ukraine and ending the war. That should be the focus of the West. All of this talk about resources is fine and there's no doubt that corporations like Haliburton or even countries are trying to figure out how to game the situation. We can't deal with everything at once so let's deal with the current threat first. There's no getting around the fact that this is a war between political ideologies no matter how you sugar coat it.

[@MrRoundwound]

You couldn’t be more wrong. The West should never have broken their agreements to not push any more to the East. The west needs to stop provoking.

[@pinkyandbrain123]

Tough audience. Not a single clap after the first guy spoke

[@123axel123]

Thank god

[@willmcfarland1455]

Riiight…

[@thunderrun777]

I have no clue why Peter Zeihan isn't running for president, a calm sensible, rational man....not a fossil not an ego maniac...just a smart man!

[@vulcan2519]

no need for that, the CIA already controls the presidency

[@mikedeuel953]

The first four words of that comment are irrefutable.

[@nomadtv6009]

Think you just answered your own question.

[@crimeajewel]

Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@gee3883]

Belgians make great waffles and chocolates!

[@peterflohr7827]

Soft power!

[@ISAAKKUSH]

I was drinking Belgian beer while watching this. It's not useless...

[@voidstarq]

22:50 Say, did the Germans ever decide to restart that nuclear power plant? "Meh, wouldn't help, it'd take like 8 months 'til we could get it online" is what ISTR hearing them saying, like, 10 months ago.

[@gfdickson]

Kind of surprising that no one on this comment thread seems overly concerned that a thermo nuclear war is being predicted as likely.

[@andrewdawson5281]

I'm looking forward to it putting an end to my sorry life.

[@triquepersonalwork6369]

Wars rarely ever end with one side winning, there is almost always a negotiation

[@Khalkara]

A negotiation of surrender is still a surrender. Meaning you lost at that point.

[@BlessedAreTheCheesemakers]

Belgium catching strays out here

[@teresayoung8898]

😅Peter you with Forum ?

[@yeapsoon3115]

How much does BALDIE earns promoting for the military industrial complex?

[@Rjsjrjsjrjsj]

How much do you earn being a shill for Russia?

[@yeapsoon3115]

@@Rjsjrjsjrjsj .. one zero zero % pro Bono for the free world. You? .. very likely pro-war stooge!

[@123axel123]

Will make money for reconstruction. Clearly he styles himself as a warrior and fighter.

[@bspilcker]

Australia can supply the world with minerals, and we produce enough food for 200mil people without really trying.

[@zibbitybibbitybop]

It won't be remotely enough, the amount of minerals required for the stated green energy transition is an order of magnitude larger than our current and projected mining capacity globally. There's a really good video by Mark Mills talking about this, go look it up.

[@briancase6180]

I think there are lots of places that can be scaled up to supply more raw materials and even food than are currently produced. For example, there's a real effort now to produce lithium from an old inland sea in California; is estimated that it will be the largest supplier of lithium in the world if it's built. Same with geothermal in the Western US. Of course, we know the story of fracturing to extract oil and natural gas in the US and Canada. Etc etc. I'm sure there's a similar story for Australia. Thanks Western world!

[@54Rocketeer]

And your point is what exactly, the population of the world is eight billion and counting

[@bspilcker]

@@54Rocketeer it goes to 10bil then starts to reduce rapidly. Depoluation is the biggest human problem, that no one says anything about.

[@bspilcker]

Inverted triangle population demographic.

[@KawaiiKasai]

Um, I need my $14 a month. I don't remember signing up to donate on a monthly basis, I don't even remember anyone asking me if I wanted to

[@vanillasnowx]

Lol ok You pay taxes, you vote your representatives and they vote/speak for you on the senate floor and majority wins on what to do with said taxes

[@kostian8354]

Peter is funny, it was indeed 40 miles convoy. Or 60 km

[@davidbarry6900]

And it didn't stop only because of being out of fuel, but because of a few vehicles (at front and back) being hit by Ukrainian anti-tank weapons, causing a LONG traffic jam.

[@kostian8354]

@@davidbarry6900 and then they got out of fuel

[@kostian8354]

@@davidbarry6900 also large columns were attacked by air force of Ukraine. Su-25 and Bayraktars