The Future of American Power and Influence

[@codymills1647]

Amazing how Peter was 100% right with redoing trade deals even with Trump as president.

[@007kingifrit]

ESPECIALLY with trump as president

[@darrenyoung9737]

Bilateral trade deals are because of Trump. Except with Trump they emphasize Main Street, not Wall Street. Wall Street financing is akin to the buggy whip. Without war, and nation building, there is very little need for wall street. Exactly what Donald Trump has been advocating for 30-40 years. Please don't think the middle class and Blue collar workers haven't been appreciating his America first view for decades.

[@vanillasnowx]

@Maxwell58SSC almost carbon copy. ive managed to have seen a few topics that he touched on that where not in the other videos of him. For example i saw one where he was speaking to a bunch of people from Cali about energy and how they were gonna be last state to use oil because of the geography of the continental us. Not only are they pretty much the last state (according to him), as the rest of USA stops importing oil and the markets will go to Asia, Cali will be the last destination for oil tankers from the middle east. IF there is war in East asia, he said itll be difficult for Cali to get their energy. There just a few slides that focused on them, everything else was the exact copy. So i would say like 95% lol

[@juniorjames7076]

@@darrenyoung9737 "Without war, and nation building, there is very little need for wall street.." I would very much like an UPDATE to you comment, in April 2023, as we are in the midst of the UE/RU War.

[@kilpatrickkirksimmons5016]

Peter Zeihan can speak with an airy confidence that might set some bullshit sensors off, but when you look back at his past remarks he's been largely on the money.

[@josephsmith3908]

I've been watching Peter for yrs and he's spot on

[@scrappy1859]

Wow, 5 years later, Peter Zeihan was way more accurate than anyone else on the panel or anyone in the audience

[@jeebus6263]

29:35, TPP is going to get done ! PZ: well... Mod: i would bet on it!

[@juniorjames7076]

Peter is the only one on this panel who isn't a grifter invested in keeping the rest of us stupid.

[@m1863m]

Five Years Later, Joseph Nye sounds outdated and Zeihan sounds like he's reading the morning headlines.

[@JoeBlow-fp5ng]

I have been watching Peter's old videos lately. Saw one from 2014 last night, and he was 100% correct on all his predictions from the shale technology trajectory to the collapse of Venezuela and the military retrenchment of the US, long before Trump was a candidate. Very impressive and well thought out analysis. And some excellent questions by Ian Bremmer, another fine geopolitical mind.

[@meganh9460]

I did the same, he was right even down to a side comment he made about tanker wars.

[@fredrickm4436]

Even in this video Peter predicted America pulling out go Afghanistan.

[@scbrew1825]

Here's to you, Peter the Great. Your books should be mandatory in high school to open the eyes of the young before colleges force feed their kool-aid on them.

[@RummyAndKoch]

Zeihan predicts the rise of Trump in this video - Skip to 29:00 What a badass, Zeihan is my hero. Nye is a living god.

[@1Reevee]

Well peter was right

[@1Reevee]

Also nukes for mother Poland yass! *edit said bikes instead of nukes for the longest time, my bad i made a typo

[@Longlius]

Peter was so right it hurts.

[@listener523]

Yep. Just watched half of a post-Trump presentation he made. Word is he's working on the next book now.

[@kpgngr]

He's the best

[@everythingisfine9988]

Peters is now 50% correct. And in a couple years he’ll be 100%. Everything going in the direction he’s suggesting. That’s one hell of a crystal ball 🔮

[@MadM0nte]

I'm starting to realize that the greatest gap between Zeihan and those who disagree with him is age. These old folks genuinely lack the youth to radically transform their perspectives in the way Zeihan has. To abandon the Bretten Woods system that seemed so inherent in the world order.

[@MadM0nte]

@Ham Sarris geo-politics is a young man's game.

[@ismaelcoronajr]

Agreed! A young man's/women's game...

[@alexchen4518]

WOW! Peter really nailed it on the 2016 election. Trump really is renegotiating all our trade deals.

[@juniorjames7076]

Peter is the only one on this panel who isn't a grifter invested in keeping the rest of us stupid.

[@freedomrocks7821]

Professor teach analyst deal with the real world. Peter is spot on.

[@codysodyssey3818]

I would love to be the fly on the wall as these two men just have a conversation. The combination of their finely tuned intellects and their complete respect and civility to one another was so refreshing.

[@mikegregory6528]

Peter continues to be right.

[@theramedita-terapeutickame8129]

And here we are 2023 Japan increasing military budgets, trade renegotiated, shale production high, Polan while not yet armed with nukes, send heavy military equipment to ukraine..Sweden in NATO. I think i am listening to Peter from now on.

[@juniorjames7076]

This is a beautiful representation of the a "changing of the guard". Two "old fossils" deeply invested in keeping the rest of the population stupid, lying to us about how globalization is here to stay (ha ha aah!) and a honest, realist Analyst representing the new direction geopolitics is going.

[@dswellhauser]

Peter got it right...from 2021 it looks wildly prescient.

[@mrrgb4954]

Damn, this aged well.

[@josephsmith3908]

Peter was so on point holy shit

[@Mr1159pm]

Watching it in 2022 and scoring the predictions 🍿

[@johnkim5125]

I feel bad for Ian to suppress his urges as a moderator. Damn shame, I would have rather watched Zeihan and Bremmer debating with no time constraints. Love when the great mind clashes. :(

[@JoeBlow-fp5ng]

Yeah, that would be more interesting to me too. I hope they do debate.

[@chairde]

China like Russia has serious internal problems. Urgers and Tibetans plus others are restless. Now workers are demanding higher wages so much so that things are made cheaper in Mexico. The Chinese are also due to a serious downturn in its shaky economy.

[@alloomis1635]

if china's economy is shaky, that of usa has subsisted on printing money since nixon. when the world goes off the usd, thud!

[@ssssaa2]

Why do you think that the Chinese economy is shaky if it is growing several times faster than america and not even slowing down all that much? It is literally, right now, growing faster year after year than america has EVER grown in it's entire history over the same period of time percentage wise.

[@LordInquisitor701]

Have you ever heard of the term the bigger they are the harder they fall China’s economy is growing fast but when it finally crashes it’s gonna be very Painful for the Chinese It really sucks to be Chinese you finally back Been a major power in the world only do you have it come crashing down again

[@Ganderco]

A seedling grows much faster than a full or half grown tree...but the mature tree is still much bigger and much stronger and stable.

[@winomaster]

@@ssssaa2 The advantage China has in it's current growth is that there is all this modern technology to accellerate their economy. They don't have to invent it. It free for the taking. What is harder to do is to develop all the tech needed to move past where the US is today. The US is leading with oil fracking, electric cars, autonomous driving, the Hyperloop transportation, and likely fusion power. Some people once thought Japan would surpass the US. But they sorta caught up and stalled.

[@ernestwagner6842]

Pater, Ian and Joe in one room. What a delight :)

[@jeebus6263]

Did you watch Pater Pen as a kid?

[@MrHiti123]

I think the largest things I see in this debate from the autumn of 2019 is; 1. Joseph S. Nye made some very excellent points about the world, but from the viewpoint of the old guard who was used to there being an "adult in the room" (pre-Trump and populist emergence), thanks to the U.S. inserting its influences whenever and wherever it pleased in the later 20th century, the CIA in South/ Central America, Multi-NAtional Corps in South East Asia and Nato in Europe and Turkey. 2. Zeihan actually has some a very well rounded and thoroughly researched basis of geopolitics, something that I think Nye, and what can be grouped as the old guard, seems to lack. On my deep dive of Zeihan, I've heard him speak extensively on demographics, geography and the depth of existing militaries. Things that will matter as trade becomes less globalized if the U.S. withdraws it's perennial support from certain regions of the world. 3. The Trump era of the U.S. and it's foreign policy and the stance on international trade, which has been disruptive and exacerbated the rate of change Zeihan predicted that the world would take in it's transformation. - I straight up think Nye did not expect the U.S. to elect Trump or anybody deviating from the traditional politicians of the American political class because if he did he would have spoken less certainly.

[@fredrickm4436]

Peter predicted America pulling out go Afghanistan.

[@jeebus6263]

We're only here for Zeihan, let him talk!

[@martinan22]

"We wont leave the ME because we are interested in human rights" BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Good one! HAHAHAHAA! Yea!

[@Ditchyourbox]

Martin Andersson correct... and you would hardly know that peculiar place called Israel even existed in the Mid east.

[@jamesexposito7172]

Sounds as if Nye is speaking in terms of how things USE to be organized and understood in his time and Zeihan has a reorganized understanding. The outcome is very clear.

[@Mr1159pm]

12:52 accurate prediction

[@cadeholbrook2454]

that politically motivated question was dumb; the US lack of socialism doesn't make us hyprocrites

[@SuperToughFish]

'No doubt' TPP will get the go ahead. Phew.

[@jeebus6263]

3 yrs later... Lol

[@m1863m]

"TPP is likely to pass... I'd make strong argument." Sorry Ian, that comment didn't age well.

[@leftwingersareweak]

Oops...so much for the prediction on TPP!

[@lesliehlopez7594]

About the best discussion for the general public. Thanks for it.

[@liveyourbestlife1513]

The man who speaks at 45:30 is Dick Garwin...one of the greatest Physicists in history. He has a wikipedia page.

[@kpgngr]

Bremmer: "TPP is gonna get done" lmao. I can't believe people take this hack seriously.

[@redcoltken]

Nye was right about cyber and Japan having nukes. I am starting to see how its a very complex world

[@richb2229]

Great predictions by Peter! But even he didn’t anticipate how Trump affects Trade.

[@codysodyssey3818]

To be fair. Nobody predicted Trump. (Except the Simpsons)

[@jeebus6263]

Actually his whole point has been that the US doesn't need to care... the decoupling may not have been inevitable but he did predict it.

[@telluwide5553]

Zeihan did mention a renegotiation for a second NAFTA... Zeihan has also since changed his stance on Japan..

[@liveyourbestlife1513]

I'd like to see how Peter would respond to a course on Western colonialism or Feminist deconstruction of Western culture. How would he deal with the nativist ideas of returning land to the natives? How would he respond to the opioid crisis? How would he react to Stanford students demanding that "Western culture has got to go"? How would he respond to the reconquista movement to return California, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas to Mexico? How would he react to the Green New Deal and banning the use of all fossil fuels? What would he say to a soldier who gave his limbs for his country and is then told that he has male privilege and toxic masculinity? How would he respond to people who vote to make these policies a reality?

[@frankcrosby6222]

Lol. Such nonsense

[@p0ma147]

These are not geopolitical macro economic problems. He wouldn't consider reacting to this nonsense.

[@Bobelponge123]

LiveYourBestLife what???

[@vanillasnowx]

he mentioned the drug cartels led by El Chapo, were producing heroin of shit quality, in a more recent video. the heroin was converted into opioid pills that sparked the opioid crisis in America

[@northkoreakp834]

thank you for your video, No Comment

[@Hannodb1961]

Anyone who thinks moral cosiderations play any role in international affairs are exceedingly naive. No one interferes in the internal affairs of another country, unless you have interests in that country that makes it worth your while. The moral argument is just for public consumption, a tool to reduce said interference, it is never the prime reason for such interference.

[@jeebus6263]

The only person in that room under the age of 35 was holding the mic.

[@justincheng3922]

Note also the similarities between Mr. Zeihan and Mr. George Freidman, his former colleague at the original Stratfor, and the shared underlying worldview, emphasizing that terrestrial geography determining difficulty of military sustainment transport as a function on primary resource extraction and human demographic and capital geography, along with "historical cycle aggregate momentum" of, what I think are more offensive ("Mearshimerian"), realist state-on-state tit for tat dynamics. Geographic friction against military sustainment, and, obvious and overlooked up and comer hegemon tit for tat competition, as the pith of our path.

[@yang-woolee8995]

Hi ! You doing good jobs, I was born before the Korean War,was once U.S.A. Peace Corps/Korea and one of the U.S.A. DoD CONTRACTORS,personally ,when it comes to National Security,there shall no concession,remember Pearl Harbour,Dececember 7,1941,your patents shall be encryped,and visas shall monitored before being issued and renewed,many thanks,y.w.lee, take care.

[@moymoy123ish]

I love Peter’s theory .

[@carlabing124]

American blood true inside me

[@janvandebong]

Zeihan talked waaaay less and said waaaay more

[@juniorjames7076]

Peter is the only one on this panel who isn't a grifter invested in keeping the rest of us stupid.

[@hardyje1915]

can't the rockefellers afford to keep the audio in check

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

It's interesting to see how wrong Peter Zeihan's argument about US foreign trade volume was. US foreign trade in 2019 was 5.6 trillion out of US total GDP of 21.43 trillion. That's like 26% of total GDP. The reality is that the US economy is becoming more dependent on foreign trade.

[@kennybautista8218]

How much of that is imports and trade deficits? I think Peter is onto something. The US has been increasingly decoupling from the world stage and yet the nation has been increasingly more dynamic. Please don't take this in an aggressive manner, i genuinely want to know.

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

@@kennybautista8218 The Ukraine crisis clearly shows how dependent the US is on foreign imports. Practically every decoupling must be subsidized by the government.

[@kennybautista8218]

@@2KSnSLifestyle Well, not the US but everyone else. The US doesn't depend on imported grain or oil. It is actually a net exporter. We had a spike in oil, but an increase in production has but smoothed that out. If anything to your point I would say some components of US manufacturing have been delayed, but i would say that's more from supply shock rather than the war itself.

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

@@kennybautista8218 Not really. The US is a net oil exoorter but the US still needs to import a certain type of oil. Why do you think gas is expensive in the US? As for manufacturing the US simply doesn't have the sophisticated supply chain and most important the millions of skilled labor that China has. It's the reason why the iPhone is still made in China.

[@poorandimmature]

good talk

[@vishmonster]

Thought provoking stuff.

[@winomaster]

The problem I have with Peter Zeihan is this:. In his books he talks about a US disengagement from the world. But he stops short of saying this would be a bad thing for US interests. My understanding is that US Grand strategy has been to prevent the rise of regional hegemons like Russia, China, and Iran/Islamic State. And by that way, no one can become large enough to challenge us militarily. Imagine Russia possessing all the people resources of Europe. Imagine China supported by all the resources of Asia. But Peter Zeihan pretends that America could retreat to the American hemisphere without consequence. Robert Kagan in his book, "The World America Made" suggests at the end that Americans have a hard choice ahead of them. The current weariness with our burdens is very much a consequence of the decades long war that began with 911. But this endless war is being pushed on us as a way to allow free rein to those states that would like to become rising hegemons in their region. (Russia, China, and Iran.). Would it be wise to let them win? So many Americans imagine we would be much better off to turn our back on the world and hide in our hemisphere. They felt the same before WW2. We stood by while Germany tried to take over in Europe...and while Japan took over Asia. Our old trading partners became became slave states serving the economy of the fascist powers. Many fell under the control of the Soviets at wars end. So, did isolationism work out then. No, we spent a large fortune restoring order to the world. Do we dare allow the world to fall into such disorder in a nuclear era?

[@innosam123]

winomaster He makes the argument that China and Russia are screwed due to Botha’s demographics, and the former’s high levels of Debt to GDP.

[@kennybautista8218]

Well, you have to see it from a different perspective. Peter is arguing a couple of points chief among them are the following: The US has been subsidizing world security. Also, US has not really staked their economy on globalization. Let's elaborate the US engagements in the world were more geared towards allowing trade to happen for everyone, especially our partners. Keeping our forces spread on bases, basically kept bad actors in check around important places e.i. Strait of Iran, Red Sea(Egypt's canal), Mediterranean sea, and South China Sea. This here becomes my own opinion Iraq, and Afghanistan were US corrupt political class making wealth for themselves. The US has deficits with the majority of our partners. The US doesn't really depends on exporting to those countries. If the US becomes as selfish as them, the US could start not guaranteeing that your exports reach their destination. Also, the US is slowly but surely starting their internal industry up again

[@solomonavandy7992]

How, when

[@Jj-xl3xg]

Why am I getting a 'Context' warning under this? Really, KZbin?

[@kaltwies]

Did this dude guarantee tpp? That prediction didn’t last 2 years. Fake smart people! 🤷‍♂️

[@alfredthepatientxcvi]

42:40 the oldest people are the wisest.

[@francoluissotomayor3123]

Zeihan, talk PUERTO RICO 🇵🇷

[@codysodyssey3818]

Why? No one cares about Puerto Rico when it comes to foreign policy

[@winomaster]

Does anyone even understand why the US bothers to keep PR as a possession. They are purely dead weight. Give them their independence.

[@codysodyssey3818]

winomaster it’s a strategic position in the Caribbean

[@vanillasnowx]

@@codysodyssey3818 back when cuba was communist, right? now its a strategic position against who?

[@codysodyssey3818]

@@vanillasnowx What does Cuba have to do with anything? It's just a forward position for the US Navy into the Eastern Caribbean and Central Atlantic.

[@frankieshankly703]

I dont know why I cant reply Martins comment but I totally see his point, USA have never put human rights on the high priority list, only if their oil interests are threteaned they act with force. And of course the Israeli lobby blocks any reasonably politics regarding Palestine

[@ryan00035]

Interesting analysis by both but its telling now a few years later how Peter Zeihan was on the money. I still dont see things panning out any different. The professor is just too vague and non committal to pin down with anything substantial.

[@112deeps]

Human Values! The moment it becomes American its open to hypocrisy and laughter

[@rrketc2]

Autopilot last 25 year!!!!??? How many countries were bombed by that pilot?

[@rybojames4111]

As many as was necessary.

[@MadM0nte]

J P He's probably trolling. Fan stanner's statement was trying so hard to be profound that he had to be made fun of. America's shitty auto-pilot led to a bumbling waist of time that killed people.

[@ismaelcoronajr]

True, But i guess we are looking in instead of out now...

[@bonkersblock]

Geez! Mentioning Netanyahu name in that council constitutes as blasphemy! 🤣

[@thomasborgsmidt304]

Very perspicious remark: Putin is not a brilliant strategist, he is a brilliat tactician. Though as to that last, I have my doubts.

[@ismaelcoronajr]

Do you still feel that way, After the election?

[@redcoltken]

Well .. How do you feel about him now?

[@Rahvin1230]

moderator is freaking loud. inside voice please

[@jimarger8533]

Why are so many American. Co4rporation trying so hard to accesss Chinese consumer market?

[@jesuisbecoming6636]

What did Edward Snowden reveal ? 😎😎😎

[@jesuisbecoming6636]

Who wannabe a Google spy ? 😎

[@aaron4848]

I don't understand why Peter can sit there. Even I can produce better analysis than him.

[@offmeds2nite]

In general both speakers weren't saying anything non-obvious.

[@billybobhobnob101]

I'd like to ask some questions 1. Why would a declining work-force be a bad thing when computers, and robots are going to replace so many workers ? isn't worse to have too few jobs than too few workers. 2. European Union and Japan are in much worse economic shape than China, What happens to the US if they fall into a depression, Austerity is as popular as a full diaper what if social unrest and a massive turn left is what happens, how does that effect the US. 3. In these scenarios with China it's always like America doesn't have a problem in the world even though we have historic levels of wealth inequality, crumbling infrastructure, a west and midwest that gets a little more short of water every year and little less able to grow food, higher education that is becoming unaffordable and less high paying jobs overall.

[@aromardu]

billybobhobnob101 "European Union and Japan are in much worse economic shape than China" Um, the majority of Chinese citizens still live in the empoverished countryside. They're not going to solve their gigantic social issues any time soon. In comparison to population percentage, the West and Japan have a higher state of living on average than the average Chinese.

[@billybobhobnob101]

in 2011 China's urban population exceeded the rural population and yes Japan and the west have a much higher standard of living but the trajectory is down while the Chinese trajectory is up.

[@enlightedenlightment1065]

+Oink Oink He's terrible, doesn't even update what he says unless there's no other choice.

[@rrketc2]

China has already 'passed' the US in technological innovation, manufacturing output, and military capabilities. What are these bozos talking about?

[@dustydaisy2658]

If that was the case China would own tiawan

[@rrketc2]

Well, China is smarter than that. They don't need a military conflict when they are already winning the currency and hence trade wars. Furthermore, who needs Taiwan?

[@paulcharles2457]

no they haven't what books are you reading where is the proof just another self hating American preaching about our doom when no country can in the history of the world has what we have now our geography our economy and our technical know how is second to none we will survive and thrive no one is even fucking close

[@rrketc2]

Hilarious! Thanks, you really gave me a great few minutes of laughter. hahahah....awesome!

[@paulcharles2457]

How so Mr stanner

[@leftwingersareweak]

Oops...so much for the prediction on TPP!