The Game Of Lies

[@Vsauce2]

ANYONE WANNA TALK ABOUT XENOGEARS? Huge thanks to Ridge for sending me my new wallet, supporting Vsauce2 and my coin flipping habit. Here’s the site if you want to check them out! > ridge.com/Vsauce2

[@maxhoflock]

I DO!! I want to play it so badly. Have you played that publisher's other Xeno game, Xenoblade Chronicles?

[@Cameron-rc5ef]

Xenogears is amazing

[@primeroforjesus]

The answer is 8!

[@KeldonSlayer]

Welp jokes on you I recognized 8! instantly and knew the answer thanks to you reminding me earlier in the video @1:13, I've memorized factors of 2 and 12 factorial and below

[@whitemageserenia]

Xenogears is actually one of my favorite PS1 era RPGs/visual novels. I say /visual novels because well... let's not kid ourselves here, there's more story than there is actual gameplay! Though the few gameplay elements that there actually are, are absolutely great, and hell, the story is pretty damn good too!~ I can't really say the same for the Xenosaga series though..

[@Differentox]

Reminds me of movie theater food. If a medium is $6 and a large is $7, getting a large seems like the obvious choice when they're actually both way overpriced. The solution is to sneak a microwave in your purse and pop your own in the theater

[@maenmallah6337]

They did this experiment once where they had only small for 4 and large for 7 and most people went for small. Then, they added medium for 6 and low and behold, way more people got the large one. When they were asked why, they said they get a much more quantity for just 1$. Basically, marketing people use this trick by inserting a dummy option to push you towards a different decision.

[@austinpowers9360]

Large popcorn gets a free refill tho and i eat all of it anyways

[@Epsi_Cron]

Screw bringing the microwave! Instead, bring the entire kitchen!

[@dashcrawford56]

Vlogcreations actually did this

[@Differentox]

@@maenmallah6337 Yeah wasn't that on Brain Games?

[@johntaylor9381]

I started adding the numbers, not multiplying. I’m off to a really bad start.

[@peNdantry]

Don't feel bad -- I did exactly the same :)

[@HeenaPatel253]

Lmfao

[@PivotalShrimp]

I guess you could say... things just aren't adding up in your favor.

[@SG2048-meta]

@@PivotalShrimp nice

[@daychild_]

Same and I guessed 20

[@newsoupvialt]

I guessed "40,320" for A because that's the number you said right before. My media comprehension is too good to fall for your tricks >:)

[@SanneBerkhuizen]

I guessed 8! And I was right :')

[@verme8444]

K

[@joelewis8416]

ok genius

[@T4zchi]

I did the same thing

[@NStripleseven]

Sanne Berkhuizen ok lol

[@dinonuggiesguy4847]

Mom:OMG he's going to say his first word Vsauce2: WRONG!

[@alwaysw1ns]

Well that's kind of ironic isn't it

[@ashmanideep6253]

@@alwaysw1ns Yeah he just proved that he was wrong instead of her mother

[@philmenzies2477]

This comment brought me to tears

[@bravecow69420]

He just proved that this is not his first word

[@ReReCoil]

0:51 "You'll have exactly 5 seconds to solve the one you chose." Me: *Laughs in pause button*

[@xuly3129]

Anchoring also works on the (I V vi IV) chord progression.

[@eithanloma6637]

THEY SAID YOU CAN ESTIMATE IT SO YOU DONT HAVE TO LAUGH ABOUT IT

[@jacobwiens659]

Me: Panics in 2x speed

[@standupyak]

Scientists: "your brain is capable of having 1000 trillion operations per second" Me: 3 take it or leave it

[@elektroyvlogzzz6927]

@@xuly3129 yeah I know what music theory is

[@sjorsfarla3767]

Lets be honest guys the beginning and the ending of the video where okay but the middle part, damn that was some good stuff

[@ignaciomartinchiaravalle]

You've made my day with this comment XD

[@maximzaporojan6966]

Why was it actually tho

[@xwhite2020]

I'm at the start and it's a wasting my time.

[@Antonio-wh8lh]

@@maximzaporojan6966 It’s a reference to 3:55 I believe.

[@maximzaporojan6966]

@@Antonio-wh8lh That's not what I meant

[@schonjon]

Group A: 512 Group B: 2250 Me, an intellectual: 8!

[@luciousdefanto]

Same wkwk

[@BeetoBeeto]

Dude I thought that same thing and said, does that count?

[@maybenat]

You, an intellectual: presents the problem in a different form you can still 'purify', therefore not solving it

[@nojomyth]

I knew that 5! is 120 and 6! is 720, so 8! is about 56x this number, 50*700 ~ 35'000, 60*700~42'000 Last 2-3 seconds were just approximating that it's between 40k and 41k

[@ananshasheta926]

@@maybenat Is it an answer? Yes? Then its an answer. Thats like saying 4/6 isn't the answer to 1/6*4. A solution doesn't need tj be simplified. Anyway thanks to my class liking factorial I actually kinda got it right the moment I saw 8! As the answer because memorized it.

[@derekliu793]

jokes on you i have factorials up to 10! memorized

[@skatinggamer8441]

You have achieved... THE GIFT xD

[@Cheese001]

Copied

[@Gustavo-po9bd]

Why memorize if you can calculate right now

[@furqaancoatwala382]

Lmao

[@derekliu793]

@@BramLastname agh i have trouble iwth being specific sometimes, so no good catch though ;)

[@asdefree]

I was going to argue "when's the last time you got tails 7 times in a row?" then proceded to flip a coin 7 times and felt dumb when all 7 were tails

[@MirunaNero]

I once got 40ish heads in a row with a penny as a kid. I was really bored

[@Davis...]

@the Painted panda ya got karma

[@kazzyanddecchan733]

@Devinater Just as likely as any other 40-ish sequence. However, I get what you mean, because a sequence containing at least one tail is more likely than all heads.

[@felixroux]

First of all, why did you go out of your way to flip 7 coins. Also, the probability of that happening is 1/2^7 or 1/128 which is about 0.75%

[@enzoeijsermans4161]

When's the last time you got Thhthtt?

[@luminolic_black8286]

Jokes on you, I have the first ten factorials memorized.

[@TheLittleViridianFighter]

I only memorized the first 9 :(

[@milaandahiya]

@@TheLittleViridianFighter I did a double take on this lol

[@manuelsputnik]

U are a pro

[@arjunchawla2248]

Same

[@eitansegev]

I am 50 first dumb kids

[@mobileterrarian8860]

Oh, this is why when I have a random number generator from one to a thousand, the number 1000 felt much luckier than 243 even though they have the same odds.

[@Tymczaq10]

well in 2d6 throw, getting 12 is more lucky than getting 7

[@MythicByrd]

@@Tymczaq10 True, but in a 1d12 throw, getting 12 is the same as getting 7. But the reason the OP finds 1000 much luckier than 243 is probably just because 1000 is a number most people find more important thant 243

[@venn7257]

@@MythicByrd 1000 is a sort of "landmark" number, especially considering that it is the highest possible resulting number in their example.

[@francis4650]

I actually guessed 40.000. That’s it! That’s the epitome of everything I’ve ever done. It’s only down hill from now on.

[@ankandatta6683]

lmao

[@ankandatta6683]

tho i guessed like 10000 ish

[@BobertJoe]

I guessed it exactly because he said what it was like 45 seconds beforehand

[@ofiryaffe8223]

Me too

[@slowsatsuma3214]

40 is pretty far from 40,320

[@thatonedude-6819]

“The people who solved problem A estimated 512” Me who guessed exactly 512: .......

[@user-je1hi6jy1i]

same i choosed 514

[@jasexavier]

I started rounding prices up when I was a teenager and learned about the 9/10s of a cent at the end of all gasoline prices. So, $0.98 9/10s = $1.00 in my head. I've been doing it so long I barely see the decimals anymore.

[@themathematicstutor4092]

Kevin: Right? Also Kevin after 0.001 seconds: WRONG!

[@JustinY.]

Thanks Vsauce2 for our weekly existential crisis with this video.

[@Superb_Fellow]

hi justin

[@turbomeows]

I go to micheal to think, I go to jake to ponder, I go to kevin to cry

[@gay_madilynn]

A fresh Justin Y comment.. interesting!

[@mural_emperor_5639]

stop fallowing me

[@YawgmothWasRight]

When your first comment dies so you make a new one.

[@ProneTurtle]

“Everything I say is a lie.... except that....and that....and that...” -Peter Griffin

[@harsh3624]

And this.

[@isaiahdahler8933]

This sentence i just said is false.

[@harsh3624]

@@isaiahdahler8933 which sentence? It's a joke. I understood him.

[@isaiahdahler8933]

@@harsh3624 I said the sentence I said was false, not his/her's. I was also saying a joke.

[@ԱրամՔերոբյան]

LIAR

[@horseraddish5179]

“I’ll do my homework later” Kevin:

[@thecarman3693]

I taught a group of adults (in a college night class) and asked if anyone would play the 46 number lottery of pick-6 with their numbers being 1-2-3-4-5-6. All of them said no because they felt such an outcome would never happen. Yet those who did play had no issues playing their 6 number picks. Then I clearly explained that both outcomes were equally unlikely. Yet, they kept on playing.

[@rubenthijs746]

"Yeah the end was terrible. But the middle was really good" - Game of Thrones

[@gernottiefenbrunner172]

The beginning was also really good though, so it doesn't count.

[@david_ga8490]

- Toradora

[@jimmyh2137]

@@gernottiefenbrunner172 The beginning was bad because you get a million characters thrown into the mix and you get lost for a long time untill half of them are dead and the main cast starts to delineate better.

[@unknownability4257]

“You’re lying to yourself “ Me: what changed

[@AxxLAfriku]

GAGAGAGAGAGA!!! I watched this video and it is really not that good compared to my perfect videos. GAGAGAGAGA!!! This is NOT self-promotion! This is the reality! This is the world! We are the people! Don't disl****ke my vide*****s, my dear sli

[@kingacrisius]

@@AxxLAfriku What a terrible self-promotion tactic. And yes, it is still self-promotion even if it's true, which it isn't.

[@AxxLAfriku]

@@kingacrisius dont talk to me

[@unknownability4257]

@@kingacrisius lol wtf is wrong with him

[@legendgames128]

AxxL I assume you are a manager of the store that wants people to buy expensive stuff using the tactics described in the video? Oh wait, you didn't watch the video.

[@magicjello4633]

Michael: questions life and science Kevin: does cool math stuff and has a white board Jake: makes movies

[@Memorywholed]

I appreciate the honesty about video game pricing. Everyone today is so much more rich than they were even just five years ago.

[@bergeronscores605]

5:20 Well a mix is more likely than having all coin flips show the same side. There are only 2 ways for every flip to show the same side: all heads or all tails; every other possibility is a mix of some sort. The mistake is believing that any specific or exact sequence is more likely than any other. A mix is not a specific or exact sequence because it only eliminates 2 possibilites.

[@Xidnaf]

i'm confused, were we assuming that the likelihood of a coin flipping/dice rolling sequence being the real sequence is the same as the odds of getting that sequence in the first place? aren't those two different things?

[@lukec1471]

Xidnaf??????? Wow I didn’t expect that. No videos ever again?

[@glumbortango7182]

HE'S REEMERGED

[@Lacie9]

XIDNAF

[@samon101]

it's more like one of the three is the real sequence that was achieved by throwing the coin/dice and the other two were made up, and then it was asked which one was the real one but as the three sequences have the same odds of happening, the result of that "social" experiment should be that 1/3 of people should choose the first, 1/3 should chose the second and 1/3 should choose the third. but instead we end up choosing the sequence that looks more "random"

[@jbw416]

I believe they are the same. The 'real' sequence is another way of saying a given sequence, so we're calculating the probabilities that this sequence of flips/rolls is one of the ones listed. (p.s. used to love watching your videos, hope you're enjoying whatever you're up to atm c:)

[@zenithrium]

"no one ever comes out of something saying the ending and beginning were bad, but that they enjoyed the middle" me, having read homestuck: well so you see actually

[@SirKibble15]

Tab is getting discontinued

[@AO-ly3mv]

@@SirKibble15 why does tab matter Jugglos drink Faygo?

[@Doomroar]

Oh that explains why it is so hard to get into, why it is so popular, and why people who put up with it and read it avoid talking about it, all at the same time!

[@iwersonsch5131]

How I Met Your Mother

[@OneGiantOnion]

Wow I always thought I was real but I think I was just lying to myself :(

[@linobigatti]

U commenting a lot lately

[@jorian_meeuse]

Why is your banner still roud to 200k while you already have 244k

[@onionpie310]

Hello onion

[@vegito1262]

Bruh what

[@zammcut]

What?

[@dante240sx]

When he said “wrong” I just about cried, WHY IS EVERYTHING MY FAULT… jk love you Kevin

[@taughtbytragedy]

This video is so effin good. We are all in denial in soooo many aspects in our lives and we should all stop seeking praise and giving blame because of this. That is the way of the future

[@christophermcclellan8730]

Did anyone else think “eight factorial” and just... stop?

[@MrT------5743]

That's not the answer though. 8 factorial is just another way to state the problem. It would be like saying the answer to 2+2 is 1+3, neither is the answer.

[@dinanmariano]

Unless you're a fifth grader, i'm pretty sure 8! Will be accepted

[@Pablud3S]

@@MrT------5743 that's not the point imo. I thought the same thing, and I just have up, knowing there is no chance to calculate that in 5 seconds.

[@MrT------5743]

@@Pablud3S the whole point was to guess as close as you can to the correct answer. And 8! is not an answer that he was looking for.

[@eadbert1935]

i don't even know what numbers are at this point... i work in [-10,10] or with my calculator and factorials are often subtracted anyway, so more along the lines of 10!-8!, i can't remember when i actually last calculated a factorial...

[@jamesplaysgames8157]

I just started learning probability in math and my knowledge from you has really helped me excel. Thank you man and keep up the good work!

[@AverytheCubanAmerican]

It's true, we all sit on a throne of lies and smell like beef and cheese. Makes sense to me

[@NStripleseven]

Avery the Cuban-American lol

[@andrewknorpp9415]

Avery the cuban-American your everywhere!

[@jeremyd2676]

Two months to rewwtching Elf again.

[@swamp347]

@@jeremyd2676 Im in a production of elf the musical so elf is one of my main focuses and has been since September

[@IslandC0der]

GeoWizard

[@syriuszb8611]

5:15 I would say that 2,1,3 IS the correct answer. Why? 1. We know that one flip supposed to happen. 2. We know/ assume that two flips were fabricated (not a real outcome) 3. There are millions of combinations of random looking flips (like THHTHTT) but there are fewer combinations of ordered ones and only two combinations of all flips being same. 3. So, the probability of one random looking flip is higher than the probability of ordered one, and millions of times higher than all tails flip. So yeah if it would be a real world, I would bet like this. If it would be a simulated in computer (that would create 3 random results, and THEN randomly choose the "real" one, without analysing if 7xT is looking more or less likely) then all options would have same possibility.

[@cheeseburger1271]

I chose A and estimated 40,000. After seeing the other people’s guesses I thought I was so far off, then the answer was revealed and I nearly fell off my chair

[@wawawalululu]

me: oh so it’s 8!, probably like 300 idk him: *revealing it’s 40320* me: …oh……

[@mightbeahuman3442]

Same

[@AbandonedVoid]

Factors are almost always huge, as a rule of thumb.

[@faustoflores3334]

@@AbandonedVoid what if the factors are fractions

[@leafsharp]

Same

[@faustoflores3334]

@@leafsharp lol, no they dont, they become very small

[@mekafinchi]

I recognized the factorial, got distracted by that, and didn’t come up with an estimate lmao

[@carpedm9846]

"Uhhh its. The answer is. Uh. Eight factorial!"

[@JF743]

I recognized it as a factorial and only know 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, but I was much closer to the real answer with my 20 000 guess and I chose the A side too. I'm not invulnerable to biases and knowing that makes me take it in consideration a little more often.

[@mohamedazadabdulrahman3226]

no it is still worse than my 40320 estimate

[@haroldp.sadwood1181]

Yeah, I just remembered that 8! was 40,000 and something, so I would have skewed that estimate a bit as well.

[@snuffysam]

Yeah I don’t have factorials memorized, but it’s not so hard to get the right order of magnitude. 8 x 1 is 8. 4x5 is 20. Those are both kinda close to 10. You can have four pairs of numbers following that pattern (8x1, 7x2, 6x3, 5x4). So it’s gonna be above 10^4.

[@eragon78]

part of the issue with the coin flip example is that it IS INCREDIBLY likely for a series of 7 coin flips to alternate between heads and tails at least more than once. The first example they alternate ONLY once. The third example they dont alternate EVER. The 2nd example they alternate 4 times. So while the PROBABILITY of each specific exact sequence is equal, the probability of flipping a sequence containing only 1 alternation or 0 alternations are both INCREDIBLY LOW, while the probability of a sequence containing 4 alternations is much much more likely. If a friend came to you and asked you which of those 3 sequences they just flipped, the 2nd is by far the most likely outcome since while the exact order is just as unlikely as the other 2, the number of alterations is well within the average probability, while the alteration of the other two sequences is HIGHLY unlikely. So it is MUCH more likely that the 1st or 3rd sequences were faked. Another way to think of this is using the idea of Entropy. Chaotic states are far more likely than ordered state. Randomness tends towards disorder and sequences with high numbers of permutations. So a highly ordered sequence (while just as likely as any other SPECIFIC sequence) is highly unlikely to actually occur, while an "unordered" state with lots of alterations is highly likely TO occur. (Although to a degree. States with 5 or 6 alterations are unlikely to occur as well again because they have less permutations.) So using that type of logic with the understanding of Entropy, the 2nd sequences is the most likely state to have occurred naturally, while the 1st and 3rd states are highly likely to have been faked.

[@Exachad]

Oof, I remembered what 8! was after I saw the problem since you showed us "40,320" right before it: was a trigger word.

[@SupremeLeaderKimJong-un]

I could never tell a lie though

[@AJBAXTER7677]

Alrighty then I got one for you Do you ever feel like a plastic bag, drifting in the wind, wanting to start again?

[@VenkataB123]

@@AJBAXTER7677 Those lines are from Fireworks, right?

[@AJBAXTER7677]

@@VenkataB123 Yes, cause I am that unoriginal 😂

[@KazimirQ7G]

I trust you, dear Supreme Leader! 🤗

[@VenkataB123]

@@AJBAXTER7677 😂

[@Beatstruck]

4:50 if someone came up to me and said: "yo, I just rolled 5 dice. You want to bet I got a yahtzee (55555), a full house (22444), or 13445?", I know which one I'd pick. Knowing that there are two wrong answers makes it an easy bet to pick the one that seemingly is more likely. If you had to bet any of these outcomes BEFORE the roll happened, then yes, they are all equally likely - but it's very possible that none of these outcomes will occur. Knowing that one of these three outcomes has to be the actual outcome makes it a very sensible decision to write off the two more 'unlikely' rolls as the fake answers

[@killerbee.13]

Actually, since order doesn't matter in Yahtzee, those aren't all equally likely, which makes it different, but your point would be valid with a different example. Basically, random processes tend towards maximum entropy, and 7 tails in a row is minimum entropy, which means that it is more likely to be fabricated than to have come out of a random process, if you know that both types of sequences exist in the answers.

[@karlboud88]

then he tells you he rolled 12345, so you lose :P

[@MrT------5743]

@@killerbee.13 But if someone were to flip a coin 100 times, it is very likely there will be a series of 7 tails or 7 heads in a row. Long sequences of the same outcome when each is a 50/50 is just as likely as alternating.

[@killerbee.13]

@@MrT------5743 I never said anything about alternating sequences. They also have low entropy. High entropy means an unpredictable sequence, or equivalently, an uncompressible sequence. I can abbreviate HHHHHHH to "7H" (2 symbols), but I can't abbreviate HTHTHHH (A sequence I just flipped) nearly as much (maybe "2HT3H" (5 symbols)). This compression scheme isn't perfect, and the sequences in question are short so the effect is weak, but it's good enough to demonstrate the point. And while there's a decent chance of getting any arbitrary length 7 sequence within a random (fair) length 100 sequence, that's not what the question, nor my own argument, was about, so I'm not sure what your point was.

[@killerbee.13]

@@MrZoolook I was going to do that originally, but decided that making the repetition eager resulted in better results for all the sequences I was looking at. It does mean that incompressible sequences have to be prepended with a 1 though, so it's a trade-off. I could have explained it better but felt the comment was already rather long.

[@koolkid5567]

1:08 Not unless you have the factorials memorized😎

[@kianholden7387]

Oh, you like factorials? Name every factorial

[@sergey1519]

@@kianholden7387 A000142

[@anawesomepet]

1! is 1 2! is 2 3! is 6 4! is 24 5! is 120 6! is 720 7! is 5040 8! is 40320 9! is 362880 10! is 3628800 x! is (x)*(x-1)*(x*2)...*3*2*1

[@OeshenNix]

I got 1-5 memorized

[@danteregianifreitas6461]

I only memorized up to 6, so I tried to multiply 720 by 56, didn't work :/

[@lefthanded3446]

The probability of any given sequence of seven heads or tails throws may be 0.0078125 but the probability of that exact sequence not happening is 1-0.0078125. As the second option is the most chaotic arrangement it seems like the most probable answer just because of how unlikely it is to get tails or heads multiple times in a row

[@Drone256]

You blew it on the coin flip explanation. It is correct that those 3 sequences have equally likely outcomes. You asked, "'Cookie Monster' flipped a coin 7 times. What was the outcome?". A mix of heads and tails IS the most likely outcome from 7 flips because there are many more ways to achieve that. The correct answer to the scenario and question you posed is #2.

[@DekosAnjo]

"You're Lying To Yourself (and I'll prove it)" no need, i already know.....

[@hafsaboumeziane4341]

I was gonna inform yall that my dad went to buy milk and will be back, but dis dude told me that I'm just lying to myself

[@somerandomweeb4836]

No, I am your father

[@KnzoVortex]

What a dummy amirite? Amirite?

[@silverlava1000]

I don't usually leave comments but I have to say something here. Your conclusion about the coin flipping game at 4:15 is wrong because of the way you presented it. Yes, all three of those sequences have the same chance of appearing if you flip a coin seven times, but that's not what you asked. "Massimo Piatelli-Palmarini flipped a coin 7 times, and the outcome was one of these 3 sequences." "Which one is more likely to be the *real* outcome?" The "real" outcome. Implying that the other two are *fake*. As in, created artificially by someone without randomly flipping coins. While all possible 7 long heads and tails sequences have the same chance of being real, they have _widely_ varying chances of being fake. That changes this from a mathematics problem to a psychology problem. "Which one of these sequences is least likely to be a fake one that someone made up?" Looking at the context of the problem, assuming this was a research study, it is *far* more likely that the researchers put TTTTTTT in the list themselves then it is that they randomly flipped it. So assuming the responders were presented the problem in the same way, they actually got it right. #2 is most likely to not be fake.

[@karlboud88]

you earn one smart coin ☺

[@Jonathan-ee4rn]

Came here to say the same thing. That judgement is a question about the psychology of the researchers not about the probability of coin flips.

[@aureusyarara]

actually no, humans are very weird when it comes to simulating randomness. for example ask smeone to draw 30 dots as randomly as posisble on the page. it's FAR more likely that they'll spread them out close to equidistant bc they parse "randomly" as "uniformly". It's way way way unlikely that they'll place all 30 dots say along the bottom of the page leaving it blank. to me, the sequence that looks *least* made up is the TTTTTTT one bc no self respecting human would simulate randomness by picking the same outcome every time.

[@silverlava1000]

@@aureusyarara You've made an incorrect assumption. I never said they were trying to simulate randomness when they picked TTTTTTT. They were researchers, they would've picked it intentionally because it _doesn't_ look random and they needed a control.

[@karlboud88]

@@aureusyarara you are wrongly commenting your pretentious thoughts on a comment you dont understand

[@Verlisify]

My brain shut off after the card flip. I thought the lie expose would be "You are probably still trying to solve the number"

[@Zudexa]

When will you just give up honestly?

[@ethervagabond]

haha, yeah, as soon as he flipped the card over I was like "...nope, don't care"

[@golden_souls2728]

No way I was doing that in my head in the beginning so I just said the 40,320 right before that and wtf I feel like a genius 😂😂

[@Giadanadragon_Gaming]

I saw this notification when telling myself how terrifying the mario 64 piano is

[@65hilary48]

The coin flip thing is perfectly reasonable. Whilst you can't predict what a real coin flip will look like (all events are equally likely) you can absolutely predict what a made up coin flip is more likely to look like. If a human being comes up with the two decoys, they are far more likely to choose a pattern than it happening by random chance. So when choosing the real sequence the most sensible approach is to discount the flips that follow the sort of patterns humans are more likely to produce. It might not be the right decision using statistics alone but when you factor in the element of psychology it is absolutely the correct bet.

[@Greenleaf_]

Yeah, there are only a handful of sequences that look fake, so if it looks fake, odds are it is.

[@Savant_Ananya]

I understand what you are saying but Kevin wanted to show that when choosing between patterns which are equally likely to occur we choose the ones which are most random.

[@andrewditton7226]

I think they're off the mark on this. Takes me back to high school exams where there's 3 levels to a subject, but the question requires a lvl 1 response, and It's multiple choice, so we're restricted by the answers you give us and have no way of justifying the logic behind our response. I.e i understand the math is equal anyway, so every order is equally right answer I.e not wrong answer I can't answer wrong. I don't feel like I'm increasing my odds mathematically, but it covers any human tampering and feels tidy. Projecting this as flawed logic and "lying to yourself" I feel is a little skewed. Vague question often have multiple conceivable meanings, therefore multiple possible answers. If I can answer all of them correctly, but have to guess which meaning is implied than It's a flawed question, not a flawed answer.

[@Wolfen_II]

He did say that people pick what they picked for all the wrong reasons

[@mytwosense]

I was going to say the same thing - the two others were pretty obvious decoys, so it has to be the only one that 'looks' random.

[@SeeTv.]

1:00 answer: 8! (factorial)

[@Alex-fm6jd]

So eight factorial factorial?

[@SeeTv.]

@@Alex-fm6jd No, the parentheses are just to explain, what I mean with the symbol "!" because many people don't know or have forgotten the meaning and if they see the name "factorial" they can google it or they remember math class.

[@Phillip161]

@@SeeTv. Ich glaube er weiß wie du es meintest und wollte nur witzig sein 😂

[@SeeTv.]

@@Phillip161 Ja ich weiss, aber ich habe irgendwie den Drang, exakt zu schreiben, was ich meine xD

[@dragatus]

Clever, but also dodging the answer.

[@thomaswills-virk2503]

You are a Champion Mr Sauce, thanks for the video

[@ckq]

4:30. They all have the same probability to be real, but the participants are right about which are most likely to be wrong.

[@windblazeanims6253]

"You're lying to yourself" I know

[@manuelsputnik]

PepeHands

[@Davis...]

Hol'up

[@phoenixUPC]

2:53 : well, i spent about 1/3 of my time realizing that the questions have the same answer 8! (i was more interested to find out if i randomly picked the easier or the harder question), then another 1/3 of my time trying to remember 7! was 5000 something, and the remaining 1/3 to multiply that by 8 and coming up with my estimate of 40000 something

[@louisadsc]

yeah pretty much same, i knew 5! was 120 then i multiplied it by 6 to get 720 and then just guessed 720 multiplied by 56 to be around 38000 ish

[@SUPABROS]

I just guessed it because I know 1x2x3x4 blabla blqa till ten is 362880 so I tried to divide it soi divided it byt the second to last number and thought near 40k

[@T4zchi]

0:30 6th grade me when I use google calculator to divide 0.00000190734 by 2 and get something "greater than 1"

[@BeetoBeeto]

Wait, * voice crack mode on * huh?

[@ani_n01]

Put it down

[@OeshenNix]

Tell Google that

[@OeshenNix]

Actually a Google bot it will say its right because its lying to otself

[@TheDisclaimer]

The coin thing... Yes the 3 sequences have the same chance. But then deducción comes into play. You know it's a test, and know that there's a higher chance that the resulting sequen was "mixed", since there are more "mixed" posible sequences than "ordered" posible ones. So you tend to think that the most likely answer is that he got a "mixed" sequence when he tossed the coins (option 2) and then choose 2 "ordered" sequences to fill the test.

[@warron24]

I call shenanigans on the coins thing. People didn't bet on sequence 2 because they thought that specific sequence was more likely then any other sequence. They thought it was more likely to be a random-looking sequence. And that's a perfectly reasonable assumption. If you write out all possible outcomes from flipping 7 coins there will be more "random-looking" sequences then "non-random looking" sequences. Take these two sequences: 1. TTTTTTT 2. HTTHHTTHTTHH By your logic the first sequence is more likely because its easier to reproduce (fewer flips to get right). But the second sequence, as anyone could guess, is the one I actually created randomly.

[@LazyPillowCase]

"You are lying to yourself and you don't even know" Me who doesn't even believe anything I say since 4th grade: *I'm four parallel universes ahead of you*

[@alexanderheubel7366]

It sounds more like we are all just bad at math

[@danielrhouck]

Re: coin toss: Yes, all the sequences are equally likely from a coinflip. But we know that only one was real, and the other two are far more plausible from the alternate process “come up with some non-random-looking-to-humans sequences”.

[@karlboud88]

exactly

[@antimartyr09]

the illusion of randomness

[@danielrhouck]

@@antimartyr09 I’m not saying that the sequences have different probabilities if you are *about* to flip a coin; they’re the same. I’m saying that if you already flipped the coin and asked me that question, it’s actually reasonable to say B

[@Blox117]

@@danielrhouck its only reasonable if you assume the coin toss is not random

[@danielrhouck]

@@Blox117 The coin toss is random. The other two options are not. Letʼs repeat the experiment. I just flipped 7 (virtual, random, 50/50, giving 01 instead of HT) coins. The result is one of * 0011111 * 1100111 * 1111111 Which do you think it is? (Sadly online payment is not such that I can reasonably offer a reward for any guess, or I might actually offer you 3 dollars for the right guess) (md5sum hash, for some verification that I didnʼt cheat: cba2b09f2358d7ad5a1a508d1d648c2c.) I can do this many times and about 89% of the time the answer will be 2. About 9% of the time itʼll be 1, and about 2% itʼll be 3.

[@chrisgyro1980]

With the heads and tails one, is it not more of a choice that you're actually choosing between 'likelihood of all tails' and 'likelihood of a mixed sequence'. There is only one chance of all tails, but millions of chances it will be mixed. Therefore the mixed one is the much better choice, you're not interested in what the exact mixed sequence is, but the fact that its mixed.

[@marksverdhei]

I think you got the coin example wrong. Yes, the likelihood of getting these exact sequences are equal, but the expected ratios of heads and tails on a fair coin is of course 50/50 which means 3.5 head, 3.5 tails. This gives us reason to beleive that the first two sequences are more likely than the first one as they are closer to the expected value. You can partition the first two sequences to find that in the same way, the second sequence is more likely to be the true one. Therefore, the intuition is correct.

[@micaelstarfire8639]

He greatly undervalues the extra information he provides when he tells us that the correct answer is one of the three given sequences. That's information that changes the entire nature of the problem.

[@JohnWarosa999]

7:32 What about prices like "$222.22" or "$1212.12". What are they trying to brainwash you with?

[@Nuclearburrit0]

The number 2 obviously

[@JohnWarosa999]

@@Nuclearburrit0 ._.

[@MakerTim]

1:10 virtually nobody Me who knows 8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1 from top of my head

[@doommaker4000]

It is just factorial after all

[@phoenixstormjr.1018]

Photo math 😏

[@TheQueen-qk2ul]

@@doommaker4000 i said 8 factorial or 8!

[@aredjayc2858]

Glad I'm not the only one who memorized 0! To 10!

[@keelanruffner5440]

I panicked guessed 56.

[@davejacob5208]

that example with the 8 numbers to multiplicate is a pretty bad "indicator" of anchoring bias, since the participants of the study most likely just started at the left and based on how far they got, had different outcomes, which they used to base their estimate on the overall end-result of the multiplication on. so instead of anchoring, the reason for the difference is that we read from left to right and, since we are bad at guessing the outcomes of multiplication (/exponential growth), base our estimates on the limited information we have in the first half of the 8 numbers...

[@LeafMaltieze]

Yeah, this video has a lot of issues. I'm actually pretty disappointed in this video.

[@rinrin4711]

"so instead of anchoring, the reason for the difference is that we read from left to right" - the fact that we read from left to right IS one of the reasons why anchoring effect appears. "just started at the left and based on how far they got, had different outcomes" this does not make sense, noone will start to multiply one by one knowing they have only 5 seconds, the answers are pure estimations except from people who work with factorials.

[@davejacob5208]

@@rinrin4711 it is simply a baseless assumption to say that people Do Not try to multiplicate the numbers within the timespan. Even if they knwo the time is Not enough, the task at Hand is about multiplying them, so starting to Do just that is absolutely Not a far fetched idea of how to get closer to the answer. It doesnt even make sense Not to At least think of SOME products of the numbers AT Hand, since otherwise you wouldnt go anywhere towards Findung out the Overall product. So i dont See how you Can assume that they did Not Start with the first multiplications that could have been Made from left to right and to then assume that the behavior of growth is representative. Which would be a consious way of deducing an estimate, based on too little Information, but also on being Bad At foreseeing how exponential growth works. Ne reason to assume anchoring.

[@late8641]

Concerning the coin flip problem, if you had asked "Which one of these do you think he got?" then 1 or 2 would be better guesses because it's much more likely that he would've gotten some combination of both heads and tails than all heads or all tails.

[@jordanvespa720]

But the guesses for 1 or 2 are not "some combination of heads and tails", they are "this exact specific combination of heads and tails". And this is the same probability of getting any other specific combination including all heads or all tails.

[@jademonass2954]

my brain saw the 8! and me, only remembering 6! went with "oh like 700 but higher" and went with 4000 i was still way off but recognizing the 8! helped me

[@jerrin416]

*Reads title* Okay but you didn't have to expose me like that Kevin

[@tyrgannusgaming6657]

Vsauce: Have you ever heard someone say "yeah, the beginning and end of the movie were terrible but the middle was really good" This is literally how I describe The Ring

[@swamp347]

Just reading the title makes me think about Brody the Cuber

[@DeFaulty101]

The question was not "Which of these sequences of coin flips is most likely" it was "Which sequence was most likely flipped by Mr. Palmarini". 7 consecutive heads or tails are considered very special cases by humans, perhaps the most special cases, and so it's appearance in among the 3 options seems more likely to be a result of fabrication. I mean, did Mr. Palmarini keep flipping until he got 7 results that would be difficult to believe, just so he could put those results alongside a more believable sequence, and then ask people which result they believed was correct? I also find it interesting that you never reveal which of the 3 he did in fact flip...

[@bryanleaman5942]

Slight flaw in the heads/tails scenario. The implication was that one of the sequences matched the sequence observed. Since it is very unlikely for the same result repeated several times (aka, there are more ways to have a mixture in the results then there are ways to get the same result), then that answer becomes more likely. If the question was"when you flip a coin n times which of these is more likely to be your result" then they are equally unlikely.

[@bryanleaman5942]

And now I see this has already been discussed to death. Please ignore me :)

[@babyyoda8233]

I chose B, I extimated 8 factorial. Yea I cheated

[@luciousdefanto]

Same

[@gingerinajacket8519]

I chose A, got the same answer, and then noticed these were the same problem.

[@jasonmintzchannel8902]

Me: *chose A* Everyone: *struggling* Me, who memorized my factorials: “4-0-3-20!”

[@frankman2]

Is memorizing factorials useful in any field? Some branches of maths I guess.

[@iantaakalla8180]

When you need to note combinatorics, specifically when you want to choose all n things in a specific order, knowing low factorials are great.

[@TheGrapeApe22]

@@iantaakalla8180 well anyone can calculate low factorials easily in seconds... with enough problems they will naturally memorize them

[@PapaFlammy69]

He attac He protecc But most importantly, he prove. fucc

[@iiballisticpanda]

what

[@Christoph5782]

lol

[@samuelvanorshaegen]

That was terrible. Have a like

[@kermitleninja7310]

for coin fliping, the second choice is not more likely to happen, but choices like that are more likely to happen (a bunch of t and h rather than all t/h like the third choice)

[@wolframstahl1263]

I have to slightly disagree with the coinflip example. Yes, if the question is completely isolated "which is the most likely sequence to occur", all three are equal. But the question is not isolated, it's not a pure math question. Another question is implied: "how likely are the sequences to be made up?". And given that, in the context of the question, I'd argue the all-tails sequence is the least likely to have actually occured.

[@Sir.Ena9001]

Vsause 2: “It’s why 40,320 > 40,320” Thousands of people: Oh boy, this is gonna be interesting

[@lonci2244]

and then it wasnt :/

[@Nekotaku_TV]

He didn't even explain it. Seems like a joke just to make it seem interesting.

[@xPanda25]

@@Nekotaku_TV - Except he did explain it? Lol. 40,320 is 8!, and cards A and B were both 8! but written differently, and people who saw it written in ascending order estimated 8! to be smaller than those who saw 8! written in descending order, therefore 40,320>40,320. The same scenario merely interpreted as being larger depending on the context

[@randokaratajev2617]

Nice tricks made. You probably placed the dices yourself.

[@SwordFishTheFish]

The thing about the coin flipping though, assuming you're trying to guess the real outcome, there's only one outcome where there all tails, but many outcomes where they are a combination of heads and tails, so it's more likely to be some abstract combination than all tails.

[@sharktos3218]

But it's not more likely to be exact this abstract combination

[@sianmilne4879]

Yes, but you're not picking ALL TAILS or ANY SEQUENCE OF HEADS AND TAILS, you're picking ALL TAILS or THIS ONE SEQUENCE OF HEADS AND TAILS

[@SwordFishTheFish]

Yea you're both 100% right that's just how my anchored bias rationalizes it 😂

[@AdmiralJota]

@@sianmilne4879 But you kind of are picking all of them. This is a test on cognitive biases, so the fact that there's one sequences for each of the three families represented (all consistent, mostly consistent with a little variation and completely mixed up) suggests that they were chosen that way on purpose for the sake of the test. And it's much more likely that a genuinely random sequence would be a suitable candidate for the mixed up family of sequences than for either of the others.

[@karlboud88]

@@SwordFishTheFish No you are absolutely right, one of the three sequences is correct, and he most likely did not flip 7 tails on his first attempt! hence its most certainly one of the first 2 answers, if he hadn't specified that one of them was the real one only then would all the odds be the same

[@porter5224]

The technology doesn't matter if the games aren't as fun, and if wages don't increase with inflation then why should prices?

[@zeronothinghere9334]

... Your wages don't increase to account for at least inflation?

[@davidbjacobs3598]

So with the coin flipping, I think the 2nd is still the most likely but not for the reasons you think. If you just flip a coin 7 times, then of course the odds are the same it'll be any of the three options - but that's not what happened here, we know he flipped the coins and THEN scribbled three options, one of which is true. And while "TTTTTTT" is just as likely to actually be flipped as the other options, I think it would be more likely than other sequences to be chosen as a made-up sequence because it feels special and makes you second-guess yourself. Using this logic - not which sequence is most likely to be real, but which two are most likely to be made up - the 2nd option is the safest bet.

[@EvilRamin]

I really like it when he says: Right? WRONG!

[@JackLinton]

I thought I was hyped to watch this video but now I’m questioning even that

[@VikingTeddy]

This was the first vsauce video where nothing was true (for me.) Well statistically it might be. But I don't think I know anyone who would think like he suggested. And I don't understand where he pulled the "no one says the beginning and end were bad but the middle was good". This video was weird man. Edit: Removed needless besserwisserism.

[@ViratKohli-jj3wj]

@@VikingTeddy you have negative IQ

[@JouvaMoufette]

6:10 to be fair, I'd choose sequence 2 not because it's a mixture of red and green, but that it's got the MOST green of any sequence

[@AdmiralJota]

I think to give a real answer, you'd need to know the probability of stopping after rolling five dice vs. rolls a sixth one.

[@kazzyanddecchan733]

Does Kevin have a video discussing the logic of coin flips? The interesting thing about (fair) coin flips is that while any given sequence is just as likely as another, the likelihood of having any mixture of heads and tails is higher than having all heads or all tails, once you do 3 or more tosses.

[@ImaginaryStudios]

Well yeah; that’s because there’s just more possible mixed outcomes. The likely hood of each individual outcome is the same, the difference is that there’s multiple ways to rearrange the mixed sequences (HTH, THH, HHT, TTH, THT, HTT) compared to only one way (HHH, TTT) so even though TTT = HTH in terms of probability, HTH = THH and HHT in terms of numerical result (One tails, two heads) so there’s a higher chance of that number total happening.

[@fos1451]

It’s not wrong to believe that the real outcome is when the coin flip is all tails, the mistake is when you believe that one sequence is more likely than others

[@trophy435]

dont know if the coin flip is really an example of anchoring, since the head-tails mix has has multiple rearrangements while the all-heads or all-tails mix has one arrangement. i get that for a specific arrangement, the probability is the same, but the fact that there are permutations of the head-tails mix makes people believe the mix happens more, and not the anchoring.

[@parinpromchanok6961]

My hypothesis: I think our brains are instinctively wired to assume the state of maximum entropy to satisfy the 2nd law of thermodynamic. That's why we try to choose those answers with equally mixed portion of each item instead of any particularly skewed one. Unfortunately, these questions come with at least 3 separated choices. > Therefore our brain fail to see these answers choices as 3 independent systems. We then pick the one with the illusion of perfect randomness (false perception of maximum entropy) as the most probable answer. With limited time and limited exposure to probability calculation exercise, some people may not be able to use those fragment of a heartbeat to calculate any mathemetically sound answer. The reasons I think of this hypothesis are: 1. I calculated the probability of each independent coin flipping event and knowing the answer right before the actual calculation was done. Not because my brain functions specially, but because my brain has been taught the methodology and the answer beforehand. 2. Human brain can not process 2 totally different thought train at once. Don't believe me? Try remembering the food you ate at lunch 2 days ago the exact same moment that you try remembering the food you ate during dinner the same day. Not quite possible right? Still not believe? Now, try doing 35742 × 55682 The same exact time (in paralell) u'r doing 74377 × 43369 Not possible right? You have to finnish either one first before you can finish the other one. With this condition we cannot calculate and perceive all three choices of those questions at the exact same time. Resulting in our brain assuming them to be in the same system instead of being 3 different system. PS. Thank you very much Kev. Love all these math video.

[@disliker7182]

I think we just don't think logically and use previous experiences that tells us that it's more likely that someone with a perfect score is lying

[@Lttlemoi]

I think some people just take the one random mixed sequence to somehow represent any mixed sequence, thus comparing the possibility of getting any of 126 sequences vs getting one of two possible sequences, thus concluding that the mixed sequence had a much higher probablity.

[@VenkataB123]

Me: I'm not lying to myself. Kevin: *W* *R* *O* *N* *G*

[@TheRandomizerYT]

Someone : This comment is not underrated . Me : *W R O N G*

[@VenkataB123]

@@TheRandomizerYT Haha😂😂

[@BakedPhoria]

Kevin: *shows answer but steers mind where it shouldn't go* My mind: _Yeah that is weird...how is it greater?_ Kevin: Here's two simple math problems My mind: _Oh I'm ready for this, I know it's not going to be simple_ Kevin: 2:17 My mind: _Alright you got me_ Kevin: 4:32 My mind: _2,3,1_ Kevin: 4:52 Me: mf

[@izzy-artmusicvlogs1234]

At the beginning, I just estimated that answer A was...the same as answer B.

[@inpinksuit]

same

[@mantawhitest1895]

I guessed 520 despite picking letter B, but what's interesting about it is I multiplied right to left instead of left to right cause it seemed easier. I started with the smaller numbers to get through multiplication quicker, which basically means I multiplied like letter A instead of B; which resulted in a very close median for letter A.

[@Jako1987]

A mix of Hs and Ts is more likely than a series of T. So if my friend tossed some coins before he wrote the paper I would also have picked a set of Ts and Hs.

[@TheRandomizerYT]

" You are Lying to Yourself..." *O R A R E Y O U ?*

[@MarcoVenustus]

Tlun tluuuuuuuun *music plays*

[@DyslexicMitochondria]

Thats what i say to every flat earther i meet

[@anameisntenough]

hahaha

[@tomhappening]

earth is a square

[@krum3155]

Earth is a doughnut

[@yh3617]

Earth is a dinosaur

[@artorhemhsnaved]

Kevin: you're lying to yourself Brody the cuber : hey that's my line

[@jorian_meeuse]

I cant believe it has 5 likes already, brody is not that well known

[@liamhenderson7367]

YOU'RE LYING TO YOURSELF

[@yoavshati]

Thought of him straight away

[@pyrohack1204]

All these comments about the actual problem and the one thing I heard was Oneonta. Blew my mind for a min. I grew up about 20 mins from Oneonta, in North Alabama. I never knew there were 2. Just thought that was cool, it's a unique name. I really enjoy your content btw.

[@n_logan2350]

Getting 7 tails in a row is nowhere near as likely as getting a mix of heads or tails. Assuming order doesn’t matter, getting 2 tails in a row has a probability of .25, whereas getting one head and one tail has a probability of .5.

[@bartocblackwell3391]

What he was referring to was the odds of getting any particular sequence of heads or tails. No one exact sequence is any more likely than any other. True if you aim is merely for any mix than the odds are a near certainty. But if you want a specific mix of heads or tails in a specific sequence, your chances are just as likely to draw all tails or all heads.