The LFP 4680 Battery Cell // + LFP with Tesla Silicon

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The Limiting Factor

The Limiting Factor

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 453
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Notes: 1) The 78% figure for the packing density was conservative. By staggered the cells, the packing density can be increased to ~90%. However, CATL/BYD are in reality closer to 400 Wh/l max than 450 Wh/l max, so I was aggressive there. That is, the estimate I provided would still be a good template. The math itself could have been dialled in better, but the results (250 miles), is still a good metric (in my view). 2) Although my assumption is that Drew was implying that the structural battery meant the 4680 structural battery, it could also mean a prismatic based structural battery. It's also worth keeping in mind that Tesla frequenly changes direction with their development plans and their thinking may have developed since Battery Day.
@motofunk1
@motofunk1 2 жыл бұрын
Jordan, curious on your take. After battery day I made some estimates based on the presentation. I came up with the following. I modeled range based on a Model 3. 4680 Per Cell LFP - 80Wh Nickel Mag - 110Wh High Nickel - 120Wh 4680 Structural Pack - 960 Cells LFP - 77kW, 329 Miles, $2900 Cost, $37/kW Nickel Mag - 105kW, 448 Miles, $4180 Cost, $39/kW High Nickel - 115kW, 492 Miles, $5200 Cost, $45/kW It will be interesting once we see production cells and vehicles. I hope that the biggest surprise is going to be in charge time. I think Tesla is sandbagging on this for 4680. I am guessing we will see at least a 50% reduction out of the gate, with up to 75% possible with tweaks over time.
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
@@motofunk1 Nice! More aggressive than I would have been, but not out of line with the information we've received from Tesla and Sandy Munro. That is, it's a matter of interpretation, but I can't fault the stats above. I'm just thinking of all the challenges they'll face and the increasing prices we're seeing in raw materials.
@motofunk1
@motofunk1 2 жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor True, rising material costs will have an impact, but I don't really count that. I just look at my cost estimates as 2020 dollars, time adjusted for inflation will happen. Thanks for the feedback.
@johnnymonsters9717
@johnnymonsters9717 2 жыл бұрын
I feel their structural pack are for all batteries moving forward. Elon said the best makers of products are toy manufacturers. He is trying to create less variations not more
@castortoutnu
@castortoutnu 2 жыл бұрын
It's π/4
@bobhoward1241
@bobhoward1241 2 жыл бұрын
Why are you not the number 1 you tuber regarding Tesla? Your analysis is literally amazing and informative.
@rivengle
@rivengle 2 жыл бұрын
Cause it ain’t clickbait, good or bad.
@roddlez
@roddlez 2 жыл бұрын
and it requires a basic level of engineering and technical competency that goes over a lot of peoples' heads.
@tommckinney1489
@tommckinney1489 2 жыл бұрын
Jordan's videos are technical in nature and most people don't bother with technical details. Other KZbinrs are more financial in nature which appeals to a larger audience. Personally, I'm interested in the technical details so kudos to Jordan. But I agree, his subscriber numbers should be in the multiple 100 thousands.
@rogerstarkey5390
@rogerstarkey5390 2 жыл бұрын
@Bob Howard He is, for those who pay attention.
@greengold6705
@greengold6705 2 жыл бұрын
This is a science learning channel not a marketing channel like most other Tesla channels.
@glenncornwall4331
@glenncornwall4331 2 жыл бұрын
I love how you present your material without any kind of hype.You present your material in methodical logical manner knowing the breakthroughs are not quite there at this time.
@kstaxman2
@kstaxman2 2 жыл бұрын
As always your coverage of batteries can't be excelled. The depth and accuracy of your research is beyond anything else out there. Thank you!
@alisonl6767
@alisonl6767 2 жыл бұрын
Another brilliantly detailed but completely understandable for a total pleb, like me. 😁 ....and the fact that, "the illustrious James Douma" supports your channel, is THE unparalleled nod. Love it ! Congratulations!
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
🤜🤛🤠
@douglaswatt1582
@douglaswatt1582 2 жыл бұрын
Another exceptionally thoughtful and erudite analysis by the Limiting Factor
@SergTTL
@SergTTL 2 жыл бұрын
I gotta say thank you to the author for such a high quality content and thank you for everyone supporting such a content. You guys are awesome!
@Qattea
@Qattea 2 жыл бұрын
I just recently found this channel…it’s pure gold
@edwardmorpeth5988
@edwardmorpeth5988 2 жыл бұрын
EXCELLENT PRESENTATION with logical structured thinking. Other communicators are guessing, with very little thought, are often calling others idiots. My viewing is limited to those with original well scripted ideas & meaningful visual backing. YOU ARE TOP OF THE LIST..
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Always great to hear from you Edward 🙌
@Clark-Mills
@Clark-Mills 2 жыл бұрын
You can't easily make a structural battery with a prismatic cell; prismatic cells need cages to contain their (limited for LFP) swelling and the long format isn't conducive to torsional loading. A honeycomb structure with a depth relative to "diameter" (which may be why Tesla chose the 4680 ratio/format) allows for a true structural pack. How they physically lock the cells together, regardless of format, will be interesting though.
@awebuser5914
@awebuser5914 2 жыл бұрын
The trick is that the current incarnation of the Model Y "structural" pack, really isn't used for significant structure! The Berlin (and Austin) Model Y's are still a complete unibody, with essentially just the floorpan missing! The "structural" body in white is a fully-stressed form, with all the lateral and torsional stability of the old design. The structural pack adds the lateral cross-bracing for side-impact protection, but beyond that, it's really just a floorpan that is bolted into place versus welded/glued. Munro and others will inevitably look it over, but 4680s in the "structural" pack will probably NOT be part of the functional structural rigidity of the pack, and honestly, you could argue that a Model 3/Y pack is "structural" since the cell blocks are extremely rigid and directly fastened to the pack casing. Basically, the Tesla structural pack is a production optimization (seats, etc installed from below), not a significant effort to actually make the pack part of the vehicle's stressed structure. I always find in comical when Tesla fanbois state that Tesla are based on a "skateboard" platform when that is categorically incorrect. ALL current Teslas are unibody vehicles with separate drive units installed independently from below along with a battery pack hung underneath, which has ZERO to do with the actual skateboard concept. A fully-developed EV skateboard will be a structurally-complete system that is the drive units and battery as a complete unit, onto which varying body styes could be mounted.
@Clark-Mills
@Clark-Mills 2 жыл бұрын
@@awebuser5914 The Y has multiple modules which are then installed/wired into the pack. The structural pack is effectively a big module removing the concentric casing and with the cell honeycomb giving the stiffness. Your common timber bedroom door contains a weak honeycomb sandwiched between two planes and the doors are very rigid.
@awebuser5914
@awebuser5914 2 жыл бұрын
@@patreekotime4578 Ummm, I'm not sure what your point is, but the bottom line is that the 4680's are really a stop-gap concept and so-called "structural" unibody Model Y's (the ones with no floor) being built in Berlin and Austin WILL have alternate packs available in a year or so using exactly the same body, so the concept of the 4680 being critical to a structural pack is obviously incorrect. It's trivial to create a so-called "structural" pack with cells smaller than a 4680, it may be less mass-efficient, but that's essentially irrelevant.
@Dave5843-d9m
@Dave5843-d9m 2 жыл бұрын
@@patreekotime4578 Many motorcycles use the engine as a stressed part of the bike chassis (frame). There is no reason why 4680 cells stacked in staggered rows between cooling plates cant be extremely rigid. If the hollow box of a bike engine is rigid enough, the packed-in cells of a battery pack would be incredibly stiff.
@joeabad5908
@joeabad5908 2 жыл бұрын
Did not understand much but enjoyed the whole 30:15min presentation.. your voice is hypnotic...
@Bryan46162
@Bryan46162 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Jordan, for another well researched and reasoned video! It's becoming increasingly difficult to find, reasoned, fact based discussion about any of this stuff out there as people seem to be hardening into uninformed, unmovable positions.
@denismilic1878
@denismilic1878 2 жыл бұрын
I finally found a channel to learn from it about batteries. Kudos.
@gridcoregilry666
@gridcoregilry666 2 жыл бұрын
Amazing explanations even for someone like me, who has no educational background in any of these battery topics. It really helps to affirm the investment case of TSLA. Thank you!
@dr-k1667
@dr-k1667 2 жыл бұрын
Jordon you are a credit to the Tesla Community and Investors. I always enjoy your work and now feel that the lead Tesla has only continues to grow. If I have understood you well, Tesla has OPTIONS and that means FLEXIBILITY which also means they have even more control over their DESTINY that leads to their DOMINANCE so that my outlook for the company as a whole only cements, but it also shows how precarious legacy automakers are in deciding which form factor, chemistry and ability to scale in order to even be in this game. There is so much here, I may just watch it again! Thank you so much for all that you do and for your Patreon supporters that allow you to do such deep dives.
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Oh hey thanks man! I appreciate the kind words. Amen - Tesla has options. That's as important as anything else.
@KenLord
@KenLord 2 жыл бұрын
I came here to say "but they said ...", but you beat me to it and covered it :) Another great video.
@Curacars
@Curacars 2 жыл бұрын
Great video again, probably have to watch it a few more times to completely get it
@KingLutherQ
@KingLutherQ 2 жыл бұрын
Great video! It's likely that Tesla is already developing LFP energy density and chemistry. And as soon as they hit a energy density that is satisfactory, they will apply it to the 4680.
@weljenks
@weljenks 2 жыл бұрын
Can’t wait for your sodium ion series since it can match present day LFP density and is theoretically far more abundant and inexpensive!
@toth1982
@toth1982 2 жыл бұрын
5:49: the picture here shows a situation when the cells are not in honeycomb order. The pictures we have from Tesla suggest a honeycomb order, which uses the available space better. Based on my calculation in this case the packing density can get close to pi/(2*3**(1/2) ) == 90.69 %. (only close, because at the borders things get a bit worse).
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Please read the pinned comment. It would have saved you some time.
@michaelvandermeer5852
@michaelvandermeer5852 2 жыл бұрын
One of your best Jordan!
@aussie2uGA
@aussie2uGA 2 жыл бұрын
If I understand it correctly, from a marketing perspective, LFP could then be positioned as a standard energy source providing great range but lacking ultimate performance. The nickel could be positioned as an up sell for its lighter weight and higher performance?
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
It could, but I'd think it would be better to use Nickel for the upsell. (as always, I don't claim to have a monopoly on the truth) You have the right idea: You can play around with form factor and chemistry to suit a particular need. There is no 'One Best' solution and it's about product-market fit.
@richardalexander5758
@richardalexander5758 2 жыл бұрын
A large portion of what I know about batteries is from watching your videos. Thanks very much!
@trent_carter
@trent_carter 2 жыл бұрын
I see two most probable paths for LFP in Tesla vehicles: 1. Tesla makes 4680 LFP in house 2. Tesla buys Prismatic LFPs from Chinese suppliers I don’t see the advantage of Tesla spending the r&d and more so the distraction of engineering resources when they can buy off the shelf with enough supply at reasonable prices. I agree both would end up in structural packs.
@edwardmorpeth5988
@edwardmorpeth5988 2 жыл бұрын
(1) Tesla 4680 manufacturing plants are certainly designed to handle LFP electrodes & electrolytes. (2) Tesla vehicle & storage production is effectively limited by cell availability. (3) Tesla has stated it will purchase as many cells as outside manufactures can provide . (4) It becomes a question of how fast Tesla can increase its in-house manufacturing.
@ellipsisfan
@ellipsisfan 2 жыл бұрын
Bravo! This KZbin video presciently anticipated Tesla's generally unexpected use of LFP chemistry in the Giga Austin Model Y's structural 4680 Battery Cells.
@DSC800
@DSC800 2 жыл бұрын
Thinking out loud: Why not use both chemisties in the same car? If LFP has a long cycle life but less density, have a 40kwh pack that is used first, then draw on a 40kwh NCA battery. Even better, have the LFP pack provide power for cruising and then draw on the NCA pack for hills, accelerating, etc. Effecively reduce the cycle time on the NCA by half and the LFP is cycled twice as much.
@markumbers5362
@markumbers5362 2 жыл бұрын
Excellent. Isn't there a recharging advantage with the 4680 design? Be interested if there is any difference in recharging speed between prismatic and 4680s.
@imaro2358
@imaro2358 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Jordan! This video exactly answers my questions about 4680’s. Can’t wait for your video on sodium.
@phila.6521
@phila.6521 2 жыл бұрын
I'm interested in the use of lithium phosphate, from low grade spodumene, as a substitute for lithium carbonate in LFP batteries. Seems to remove a step, as well as make use of lower grade resources.
@PEOdysseus
@PEOdysseus 2 жыл бұрын
thank you! you have a great "radio" voice. easy to listen too.
@vico566
@vico566 2 жыл бұрын
I always look forward to your analysis.
@archigoel
@archigoel 2 жыл бұрын
In the recent call, Tesla clearly said that LFP will NOT come in 4680 form factor, due to fundamental issues of the cell chemistry. Also, all stationary storage will go LFP.
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
You didn't watch the video from what I can tell. I said stationary storage would go LFP.
@danielfreeman4765
@danielfreeman4765 2 жыл бұрын
@archie, yes i recall vividly Elon stating this.
@wirtschaftsrationalist412
@wirtschaftsrationalist412 2 жыл бұрын
As always I understand like 15% of your videos. But i am very greatful for them!
@Blade70
@Blade70 2 жыл бұрын
Catl really revolutionizing LFP battery tech. I hope more variety and innovation for all companies.
@rioriggs3568
@rioriggs3568 2 жыл бұрын
Amazing video once again Jordan!
@vaclavmatousek3007
@vaclavmatousek3007 2 жыл бұрын
That is so well researched!
@spadkins
@spadkins 2 жыл бұрын
If we suppose that different form factors are optimal for different battery chemistries, might not the diameter of the cell be the deciding variable? My hunch: Tesla's batteries will be all cylindrical (none prismatic) and 80mm high. This will make them all work in the same battery packs, and Tesla will be able to adapt its manufacturing techniques the easiest. The different chemistries will all have different optimal diameters though. What do you think? e.g. Nickel 4680, Manganese 5480, LFP 6680, Sodium Iron 7280. (I made those dimensions up for illustration purposes, as I don't have any insight into how to calculate the optimal form factor.)
@tommckinney1489
@tommckinney1489 2 жыл бұрын
i think the logical path would be for Tesla to offer LFP in structural 4680 packs. I think the reason they offer LFP in prismatic form now is because they aren't (yet) using structural battery packs (giga cast frames). Once they roll out giga cast frames, they'll use 4680 in all of them and forgo prismatic. So, for the model 3/Y, my guess is they will eventually offer the RWD version (previously SR+) with 4680 LFP and a range of around 325. The LR version will use NCA and have a range of around 400. Just my 2 cents worth.
@WelldoneGuarantee
@WelldoneGuarantee 2 жыл бұрын
Oh, I'm waiting for them. Did apply to production Model Y already?
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
I don't understand that question. Not sure which them you are referring to and which region of Model Y production
@roddlez
@roddlez 2 жыл бұрын
According to the investor's call, Austin-built Model Y's already are running around with 4680 structural packs. It's just a matter of time until these are being sold to customers. My guess is that they are working out how to sell these along side the older Freemont-build Model Y's, since they could have significant weight and/or battery performance improvements.
@rogerstarkey5390
@rogerstarkey5390 2 жыл бұрын
@@roddlez Maybe a larger question is "What happens to the 2170 cells from Nevada if Texas starts with 4680 and Fremont pivots (temporarily?) to lower range LFP cars?" ....... Options. 1) Sell them. 2) Powerwall, until such time as and LFP alternative is available (If constrained, most LFP would go to commercial projects??) 3) Install a 4680 line in Nevada to serve the Semi, then as it ramps, staged replacement of the 2170 facilities.... ? Just thought of another one. 4) A "low range" 2170 vehicle, non structural, smaller 2170 pack?
@roddlez
@roddlez 2 жыл бұрын
@@rogerstarkey5390 interesting, but it will be at least a year before Texas produces enough vehicles to meet CURRENT monthly demand. Also we have every reason to believe that demand will be even higher a year from now. Just not sure how they will handle the different Model Ys in the interim.
@milojan1379
@milojan1379 2 жыл бұрын
@@rogerstarkey5390 I don't know what is a deal with Panasonic. It is possible that they have to meet some buyer's quota.
@fitzcarraldo2004
@fitzcarraldo2004 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you for your great analysis. In particular when you showed how the energy consumption efficiency of Tesla gives them a competitive advantage to use the LFP chemistry. It is now so obvious - because of the way how you explained it.
@wmartonejr
@wmartonejr 2 жыл бұрын
Jordan Sir - can you share in your show notes your recording set up please? Love the sound and image quality.
@greengold6705
@greengold6705 2 жыл бұрын
Great video Jordan also really liked your interview with Dave Lee investing.
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Hey thanks man!
@Klemeq
@Klemeq 2 жыл бұрын
Well of COURSE different batteries have positives and negatives. That's how batteries work! /s
@kennyg1358
@kennyg1358 2 жыл бұрын
Punny
@roddlez
@roddlez 2 жыл бұрын
You're officially discharged from this conversation.
@rogerstarkey5390
@rogerstarkey5390 2 жыл бұрын
I was SO close to commenting, but it was too bad even for me.
@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck
@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck Жыл бұрын
@@rogerstarkey5390 Roger, we appreciate your neutrality…
@astranc
@astranc 2 жыл бұрын
Great video as always. Perhaps take look at C4V's batteries. Prismatic, Cobalt free LFP, structural packs apparently tab less and using dry battery electrodes. Sounds very familiar
@GowthamNatarajanAI
@GowthamNatarajanAI 2 жыл бұрын
Can you comment on Manganese replacing LFP?
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Already on it: twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1486821592533544971 As usual, there'll be a quarterly video.
@GowthamNatarajanAI
@GowthamNatarajanAI 2 жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor Yes, that is the tweet. May be Tesla can only make Manganese and high Nickel batteries and just buy LFP from CATL. Especially if Manganese batteries are closer to LFP in terms of Cycle life and cost but have density advantages over LFP. Then they could stick with 4680 format.
@rogerstarkey5390
@rogerstarkey5390 2 жыл бұрын
My take. Manganese Nickel will be a thing, but still contains Nickel, with the associated costs and supply issues.
@Bunny-pr8gw
@Bunny-pr8gw 2 жыл бұрын
Gonna sub to your Patreon soon as I get home from work. I don’t know anything about batteries but I love Tesla and I found this breakdown of their new battery fascinating.
@mikehill1613
@mikehill1613 2 жыл бұрын
Amazing analysis. Dang, you’re so brilliant.
@neillaldegheri9259
@neillaldegheri9259 2 жыл бұрын
Great content, superb delivery! Thanks for spreading science and hope
@pavelviltres
@pavelviltres 2 жыл бұрын
Excellent work. Question: where is Lucid in the 22:11 chart?
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Hey man! It's not my chart, if you look you'll notice a credit to Sawyer Merritt. Besides, neither Tesla nor Lucid are the gold standard for range. Lightyear One is.
@navderek
@navderek 2 жыл бұрын
Awesome videos. Happy to support your channel!👍
@alstud1
@alstud1 2 жыл бұрын
Your channel is fantastic. Full of real info/facts so well explained that instead of being confused after watching, I feel informed. Thank you sir!
@joshualewis3337
@joshualewis3337 2 жыл бұрын
Isn't max (hexagonal) packing density of cylindrical cells 0.9069 and not 0.78?
@danoberste8146
@danoberste8146 2 жыл бұрын
I wonder if his estimate took into consideration that the pack has to have less cell density to be used as a structural component. (?)
@CorwynGC
@CorwynGC 2 жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor NOPE. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circle_packing Why not just look these things up before you misinform people?
@roddlez
@roddlez 2 жыл бұрын
I was thinking the same thing. Every mathmatician knows this: a honeycomb pattern is more spatially efficient than square-packing.
@roddlez
@roddlez 2 жыл бұрын
Just look at 7:50. Honeycomb.
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
High Josh! I made an error on that one. Staggering would increase the energy density. I actually covered this in my Big F'ing Cell video but forgot it. Regardless, the end result in reality would be similar because I was overaggressive with CATL/BYD energy density figures.
@YTYTYTY7
@YTYTYTY7 Жыл бұрын
I'm curious how TESLA is managing the LFP battery in the cold temperature. As you mentioned in the video and as many have said, LFP is bad in the cold winter. Is Tesla managing it by preheating the battery when the preheating the cabin is turned on? Is that how they are able to warm the battery and use the battery in the higher temperature range, so it is not so much affected by the cold temperature? If this is so, LFP is such a viable option for cars even in cold climates.
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor Жыл бұрын
Preheating and dialling in their software. People have done videos on using a Tesla battery in like -30 C
@DLWELD
@DLWELD 2 жыл бұрын
In the comparisons of blade to wound cells I'd like to see what the actual "active square footage" is of the 4680 battery material - ie unwind a cylindrical cell ( to get a biggish rectangle) and compare with the active area of a blade battery. Plus be good to see and compare the length of electrical path to the poles (tabless makes for very short paths) - so, how does a blade compared on this???
@castortoutnu
@castortoutnu 2 жыл бұрын
Remember that a power train efficiency can only improve so much. The better it is, the harder it is to improve and the less it will have an impact on range.
@krisvandermeulen253
@krisvandermeulen253 2 жыл бұрын
Have you had a look at the One battery that seems to be two types of chemistry used - in different modules- in one battery pack?
@jamesowens7176
@jamesowens7176 2 жыл бұрын
Another fine video with excellent explanations and well-sourced data. I love your channel!
@seant1325
@seant1325 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Jordan for another great video. This would be assuming that the maxwell dry battery electrode technology is compatible with the LFP chemistry...
@ChicagoBob123
@ChicagoBob123 2 жыл бұрын
Isn't the Blade battery shape better? Better heat disapation and packing ability?
@OhmicContact
@OhmicContact 2 жыл бұрын
Yes my favorite channel!!!!!!!
@nat3llite
@nat3llite 2 жыл бұрын
You are so good at this. Thank you.
@gronkotter
@gronkotter 2 жыл бұрын
Regarding recycling of silicon LFP - what is the status of a degraded silicon LFP cell? Could they be repurposed for utility applications where charge currents are modest?
@joncasamento5978
@joncasamento5978 2 жыл бұрын
Great presentation. I understand that LFP can be charged to near 100% where as the NCA batteries can only be charged to 80% without shortening the battery life. I think this is huge as the advertised range is more closely achievable for the LFP vs 80% for the NCA. I'm not sure that is addressed in the comparisons. Being able to use the full capacity of the battery as well as higher life cycles should make the LFP a clear winner. Now about other chemistries..........
@AbeDillon
@AbeDillon 2 жыл бұрын
One benefit of cylindrical structural batteries over prismatic structural batteries is: cylindrical cells offer structural support from all directions. They act almost exactly like a honeycomb structure. Prismatic cells like the BYD blade are much weaker to impacts perpendicular to the largest face on the cell (what most people would call the "side" of the cell).
@rubenayla
@rubenayla 2 жыл бұрын
Great video! Do you know if there's any difference in the strength to vibration between cylindrical and prismatic cells?
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
An excellent question that I don't know the answer to. It's certainly a concern.
@Solar_Max
@Solar_Max 2 жыл бұрын
Jordan, at the recent earnings call, Elon mentioned manganese for batteries. There are Lithium Manganese Oxide rechargeable batteries, and manganese may be cheaper than iron phosphate. Is it possible that Tesla has a new chemistry up their sleeve?
@phila.6521
@phila.6521 2 жыл бұрын
I think you would enjoy listening to Dr. Shailesh Upreti. Very good video with Ev reporter.
@RockyMountainTesla
@RockyMountainTesla 2 жыл бұрын
Also where is the Xpeng P5 & P7 on your chart?
@richpalmisano1740
@richpalmisano1740 2 жыл бұрын
LIFEPO4 CYLINDRICAL Currently Available: 32700 CELLS; 6000 MAH 3.2 V I think a 46800 LFP would not be dense enough. The format has about 20mah less than the NMC variety. Therefore making a 4680 LFP would not be useful in a vehicle.
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Pack level energy density, scalability, and cost are what matters.
@richpalmisano1740
@richpalmisano1740 2 жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor Jordan I agree on that point and I know you have done the numbers but LFP chemistry as it stands is energy limited. Could future chemistries bring levels comparable? As you stated, maybe. I am excited to see how many companies will move forward with LFP innovation when patents expire. It's going to be a good decade for battery development.
@78katz
@78katz 2 жыл бұрын
Any idea what form factor the high energy density Gotion Hi tech LFP cells are? I assume prismatic, but might they be similar to the BYD Blade format?
@stevem3439
@stevem3439 2 жыл бұрын
👌👌 LFP 4680 with genius silicon doping for energy density is my guess as the ruling form factor from what you say Jordan. Luving it, thnx!
@philoso377
@philoso377 2 жыл бұрын
One limiting factor we kept a blind eye on is the intrinsic thermal handling with tab less battery 46800, regardless of MNC, LFP or any cell chemistry. While 18650 and 21700 can pass current via its welded tab but heat. Heat must conduct heat through the case cylinder wall just because it has a largest case area, while thermal resistance there remains too large in 18650 thermal management. Is a limiting factor because core heat must diffuse through multiple layers of metal-chemical-separator reaching to the side wall. How about this? Since the electrodes are metal, is it a good idea to sink core heat vertically via the case base, the flat portion of cell casing? Answer: yes and no. Yes? It is wise to sink heat vertically. No? A bristle wafer placed between anode-case junction conducts electricity but heat. Why not heat ? The bristle wafer is a good thermal insulator. That is a gating issue, otherwise called a show stopper. Consequences? Over heated chemical affecting cell longevity and safety against a fire or explosion. Remedy? In the first principle view we need a solid junction to pass heat and electricity and not a bristle wafer. In practice we can employ induction heated reflow soldering at the anode-case junction. Each cell takes about 5-10 sec. A carousel of N induction coils can reduce cycle time by a factor of N. Set back? A slight increase battery pack mass by weight difference from wafer to solder. Benefit? out weights the risk stated above.
@peters972
@peters972 2 жыл бұрын
Hi, you quote 78% packing efficiency for the 4680, but showed a picture of them adjacent in a box. I'm wondering if a greater packing efficiency is achieved by the staggered (honeycomb looking) packing of 4680's, greater than 78%?
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Yup, I made a pinned comment to address that.
@belspace
@belspace 2 жыл бұрын
Great video as usual !
@matteoricci9129
@matteoricci9129 2 жыл бұрын
What about that Tesla model S whit a modified LFP battery from One power, what do you think we're the specs fill factor, density etc do you think they have sacrfied the thermal management to fit it in?
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Model S won't ever use LFP is my view. It's a premium performance vehicle, not a robotaxi.
@unreliablenarrator6649
@unreliablenarrator6649 2 жыл бұрын
Actually, the surface/volume ratio of prismatic cells is greater than cylindrical. It is the packaging density in modules where the aggregate effectively densifies the block requiring another approach to cooling. Small but fundamental point.
@bkinstler
@bkinstler 2 жыл бұрын
As always, great work, and much appreciated for the strategic comparisons. Overall, I don’t think it’s practical for Tesla to produce prismatic LFP, given the additional R&D and production costs. That’s what the CATL and potential BYD deals are for - LFP coverage for the near term, especially in China. In the meantime, Tesla can focus on its own 4680 production lines, and eventually add in LFP chemistry over time, with or without silicon. Plus, As you note, it fits with their design philosophy.
@JulioCesar-bv7co
@JulioCesar-bv7co 2 жыл бұрын
IMO Tesla bought this silicon battery start up in Colorado for one reason SI
@ultrastoat3298
@ultrastoat3298 2 жыл бұрын
Cooling the battery radially seems like a mistake. There is a sheet of copper that runs the length of the jelly role and thermally bonded to an end cap.... why not wick heat from there?
@VincentVanWersch
@VincentVanWersch 2 жыл бұрын
Isn't the production speed and therefore production capacity the main reason to go for the 4680 format?
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
It should, but should doesn't always translate to does
@vaclavmatousek3007
@vaclavmatousek3007 2 жыл бұрын
This shit will make me invincible when arguing with petrolheads. Thanks a lot for the super high quality video, Jordan!
@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck
@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck Жыл бұрын
Nah. There’s no way to spark logical thinking in neuroactively-challenged Petrolheads.
@machoopichoo2
@machoopichoo2 2 жыл бұрын
Hey Jordan, this is probably a dumb question, but when you note the cylinders only take up ~78% of a cube. However, if they are staggered, in a wave shape, can't they be packed tighter, by "nesting" the cylinders?
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Not a dumb question! I forget exactly how I worded this video, but your basic assumption is correct. I'd have to rewatch the video to advise why I took that 78% approach and how it matters.
@machoopichoo2
@machoopichoo2 2 жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor No big deal. I think you were making a valid point overall that prismatic/blade cells can fit tighter. I think BYD is making a structural pack now but I wonder if the pink foam going in-between the cells in a Tesla, makes for a much stronger pack. Thanks for responding. Great channel.
@johndoh5182
@johndoh5182 2 жыл бұрын
The 4680 according to Tesla is the ideal size for tabless Li-Ion battery from what I remember and yes because of the structural battery pack and the removal of framing weight because of it. It seems like a really good solution and when I looked as the prismatic I don't see any way to make a structural battery pack with it. What we don't know is if that same size would be ideal for LFP. If it isn't, they might have to make another format, but going smaller is not good, and going larger I think means losing more space for battery capacity.
@bru512
@bru512 2 жыл бұрын
Would it be practical to have a 50/50 lfp/nickel pack? The lfp could be used first, and then the nickel used when the lfp is exhausted? The benefit is that the pack would last a long time. The downside is that the pack would be twice as complicated. Personally, I think it won't happen, but is a possibility.
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
In my opnion, no. It's easier just to take either chemistry and tweak it for the specific problem you're trying to solve by incorporation two different battery chemistries.
@rogerstarkey5390
@rogerstarkey5390 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks again Jordan! As usual, you've taken my somewhat jumbled thought process, distilled it, dotted most of the i's, crossed most of the t's and I think largely confirmed my thoughts. Going for the second listen but first.... ..... Did you consider the "system efficiency" improvement from weight reduction of the whole vehicle using the structural pack. That may put the *vehicle* into the energy to weight band of the current Nickel pack based cars? ........ Would production rate /physical factory volume be a consideration? If the Wh per hour leaving a given size of factory is much lower for prismatic, that hands the advantage back to 4680?
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
1) Nope - I was conservative. 2) Yup - But that's a 'should' be true rather than something I can demonstrate or have data on. 🤠
@rogerstarkey5390
@rogerstarkey5390 2 жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor 1) That's what I thought. 2) I agree, seems likely, but time will tell. 👍
@rogerstarkey5390
@rogerstarkey5390 2 жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor P.S.... You're REALLY back in the US, aren't you 😁😁 🤠 👍
@inlinesix1187
@inlinesix1187 2 жыл бұрын
Love the vids man! Always look forward to them! Keep it up
@johnvlg01
@johnvlg01 2 жыл бұрын
great video, dope intro song, left a like (thanks for putting intro song in description👌)
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Hey! You're the first person who's noticed out of millions, lol. Glad it was useful.
@dougtruesdell9937
@dougtruesdell9937 2 жыл бұрын
Recycle LFP at 14:35 - The Lithium will be recyclable from LFP. It will be a water soluble component rather easy to separate from the other materials which are all insoluble. You would get uncontaminated Lithium back. Recyclers will need to separate incoming batteries into type so they apply an efficient extraction for each type. You would not want to process LFP batteries for say, Nickel extraction. perhaps an x-ray emission spectrometer testing each battery as it passes on a conveyer. This would identify which metals are present in each battery and allow efficient sorting.
@danoberste8146
@danoberste8146 2 жыл бұрын
If Tesla has a viable LFP battery available, it takes the extortionist advantage that Nickel and Cobalt suppliers could wield when demand begins to match supply limits. If Tesla isn't over a barrel on Ni Co supplies and can just refuse the pay exorbitant prices, suppliers will have to be reasonable.
@rogerstarkey5390
@rogerstarkey5390 2 жыл бұрын
It's also about the quantities available.
@greengold6705
@greengold6705 2 жыл бұрын
Cobalt is already in trouble the new ncma chemistry reduces the cobalt by 70%.
@evfusion4094
@evfusion4094 2 жыл бұрын
Tesla uses its market power to ensure their supply is at optimal cost. Forget 'extortionist', forget 'over a barrel'. Think optimising available choice of chemistries and relative costs of supply. Nickel and cobalt are scarce and very expensive to mine, iron is abundant and cheap to mine (check out the chemistry). Sure price is a function of supply and demand and higher demand results in higher prices. But this is necessary to fund new mine development (or reactivation of mothballed mines that were uneconomic at previous prices).
@pritambissonauth2181
@pritambissonauth2181 2 жыл бұрын
A video on the Blade LFP battery from BYD, most welcomed.
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Hey man! I don't know if you're referring to the one I already made or requesting one. Regardless, thanks for the comment!
@pritambissonauth2181
@pritambissonauth2181 2 жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor You are right you already made one. Thanks. Any more updates on the Blade cells?
@brettmciver432
@brettmciver432 2 жыл бұрын
I suppose you have heard of the company that put their new battery in a tesla model S and drove over 750miles on one charge? Are you able to do some reasearh into their tech and what they are doing differently?
@REV-EV
@REV-EV 2 жыл бұрын
Jordan, do any of these range estimates include Model 3’s additional weight reduction from the single piece castings and structural battery pack?
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
Nope, I was being conservative.
@REV-EV
@REV-EV 2 жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor my mind is genuinely blown. Great video as always, many thanks.
@hyric8927
@hyric8927 2 жыл бұрын
I'd love to see a deep dive video on Na-ion batteries!
@AbeDillon
@AbeDillon 2 жыл бұрын
Nobody's ever going to use the packing arrangement shown at 5:41. They're going to use a hexagonal packing lattice that allows 90% packing density. The 10% unused space is a perfect place to route temperature-control fluid (for cooling and warming up).
@jasonmajere2165
@jasonmajere2165 2 жыл бұрын
Diy are already going hard on LFP for solar. They use server rack batteries. Will Prowse has a nice channel.
@overamped23042
@overamped23042 2 жыл бұрын
Do you narrate for the Branch Education channel?
@figueiredoeduardo7252
@figueiredoeduardo7252 8 ай бұрын
I bought a Model 3 highland SR (produced in Shanghai). Does it use Prysmatic cell?
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 8 ай бұрын
Yup!
@philoso377
@philoso377 2 жыл бұрын
Page 5:40 is a configuration not taken by Tesla’s structural pack. Tesla use a honey comb configuration with a least dead space.
@MDMTheGladiator
@MDMTheGladiator 2 жыл бұрын
You Have An Awesome Narrative Voice!
@thelimitingfactor
@thelimitingfactor 2 жыл бұрын
🤠🤜🤛
@lwwells
@lwwells 2 жыл бұрын
A less discussed challenge is electrode matching. High nickel and silicon composite anode designs both have high initial irreversible capacities. LFP does not. This means an LFP / C6:Si design would likely require online pre-lithiation. This adds big costs via capital and throughput slowdowns.
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