The Low Success Rate Of MLB 1st Picks

[@ThurstonCyclist]

Seattle taking Ken Griffey Jr. is the greatest number one draft pick of all time. Because if they hadn't drafted him, they would no longer exist as a franchise. How many players can you say that about?

[@carbiv]

How come?

[@ThurstonCyclist]

@@carbiv Because without Griffey, there's no way they make the postseason in the 1990s, the franchise gets sold, and then gets moved.

[@internetzenmaster8952]

@carteriv There's a reason Safeco Field (now known as T-Mobile Park) is known among Mariners faithful as "the house that Griffey built". If he, as the face of the roster of madlads in the 1995 Mariners, didn't go on that insane hotstreak at the end of the '95 season to zoom past the Angels to win the AL West Division. Sure, outfielder Jay "The Bone" Buhner famously summed up the team's mentality when asked about the wildcard for the postseason ("Fuck the wildcard! We're winning the whole division!") during that stretch, but Griffey aka 'The Kid' was the _face_ of baseball at the time (and obviously the Ms). It's a long distant memory now, but that season is what saved the Mariners and created several generations of Mariners fans. You have to realize that the team was almost sold 3 years earlier and would have been relocated out of Seattle (as the Pilots [who became the Milwaukee Brewers] had done after only playing in the 1969 season) to some god-awful place like Tampa Bay because their had been such low enthusiasm for the team back then.

[@jeffjones8866]

Griffey really did save Seattle he is the greatest mariner got to love Ichiro too.

[@fortynights1513]

@@ThurstonCyclistIt seems like a no brainer now, but I read somewhere (I think it was in the book Out of Left Field) that George Argyros almost didn’t take Griffey and wanted to take someone from his hometown (he’s a Newport Beach guy). That would’ve done the franchise in.

[@shaunnichols1743]

I think you also have to consider just how broken the player scouting and development systems were in the 60s-70s and even into the 80s. The picks have been more successful in the 21st century because we have gotten better at figuring out what makes a good player and how to develop them.

[@unkledoda420]

Advancements in the sports medical industry have a lot to do with it as well. There's plenty of injuries where nowadays a guy gets surgery and they are back on the field in a year or whatever, back in the 60-80's many of those injuries either ended a guys career immediately or they could never play at anywhere near pre-injury level.

[@Jlundeen]

Being a Mariner fan, their having arguably the two greatest first picks of all time is one of the few things I can be proud of in our organization's history.

[@jonnyblayze5149]

But you didn't though

[@treytonlandplayz3151]

@@jonnyblayze5149Ken Griffey Jr & Alex Rodriguez. Pretty nice, honestly.

[@jonnyblayze5149]

@@treytonlandplayz3151 indeed, nobody said they werent. Albeit with the PED usage not sure you can include Rodriguez in there. I would i dont give a hell, dude was dope.

[@jonnyblayze5149]

@@treytonlandplayz3151 and if we're being "honest" like you said its not that hard to be the best no1 overall pick ever. I mean nothing but bums have been chosen since the draft started in 1965. Theres maybe 5-6 worthy guys chosen 1st since 65 to now.

[@SkylerMillerTheBronxProject]

The Dorktown series was very good tho

[@marleymakarahmusic9050]

Hochevar reinvented himself as a reliever and was a part of the legendary royals bullpen during the World Series in 2015,

[@warlordofbritannia]

He had a couple of good seasons as a middle reliever, but that still puts him in the D tier of no.1s

[@PTrep2727]

You had to show Rick Mondays HR against my beloved Expos, too soon. ⚾⚾🇨🇦🇺🇸

[@Kyle-gi2jb]

My team is one of the few that drafted a HoF #1 overall, Atlanta and our boy, Chipper. Love baseball. Definitely my favorite sport.

[@jameshartman3630]

I think it’s this way because it’s like trying to make an nba mock draft for 2025, you don’t really get to predict how these guys will do when they’re already pro level, you gotta predict how good of pros they’ll be before they’re developed into pros

[@orangezapinator7450]

This video is high quality. You deserve way more subscribers.

[@Ryan-zl3bn]

Simple reason, baseball is harder than any other sport

[@cake2806]

That is Very debatable

[@jstrahan2]

"You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball". And you run. Seems easy.

[@Balibaliadashi]

@@cake2806Not really. The skill sets required for non pitchers are so different from each other that you essentially have to be good at two sports. For pitchers, the amount of strain put on an arm makes that just this side of impossible. I’m more of a basketball fan but I wouldn’t dispute it unless you are going to pull something like cricket into the mix. Even there, the specialization required isn’t as severe.

[@LatinxGoyslop1994]

Maybe if baseball is the only sport you've ever played, it is. Hockey is infinitely harder to play, harder to be good at, and harder on the body

[@jomamackdaddy]

Baseball player skills translate to every sport if you don't include football linemen. Take a baseball player and put him in any sport, and he will look adequate. Basketball players' length makes them look ridiculous in just about every other sport. Let any player in any other sport try to hit a baseball that includes Michael Jordan. The hand-eye coordination of baseball translates to any other sport. That's why the most recent generation of great qb's have a background in baseball.

[@jimmyp410]

All the more impressive that the Orioles just hit on Adley Rutschman and Jackson Holliday in their last two opportunities of picking first overall!

[@chamuuemura5314]

The thumbnail makes Griffey look iffy. One major problem is with coaching and another’s draft depth. Coaching: teams most likely to have the worst coaching get top picks. Depth: so many more players are drafted and scouted in MLB than NBA, NFL or NHL. Much more competition. My first job out of college gave me a terrible coach (boss) and my performance dropped. I got traded and new coach (boss) at my new job helped turn me into an elite performer. My former coach’s organization still flounders due to mismanagement no matter whom they hire. My new coach’s organization seems to be successful no matter whom they hire (if they could turn me around they could turn anybody around).

[@jstrahan2]

Do you happen to mean the Orioles? (for the terrible one)

[@jessehammer123]

Yeah, I’m surprised the quality of the 1st-drafting organizations’ player development systems didn’t get a mention. A team that drafts 1st overall or at least nearer the top of the round is more likely to have gotten there at least partially on the basis of relatively poor player development. A player drafted by such a team is more likely to flame out no matter their underlying talent level. In fact, I would bet there’s a nonnegligible evening out effect in which in later rounds the players drafted later in the round (by more successful teams) do at least as well as those drafted at the beginnings of the rounds despite their lower draft positions.

[@lildurpy]

CAN YOU PLEASE do what if Kailer Murray had stayed with the Oakland A's!?? I wonder if they'd still be in so much trouble. 😭 Love your vid styles I need to see it broken down like this!!

[@Drogon7102]

Even if he was good. He would have been traded for cheaper players.

[@fortynights1513]

@@Drogon7102Not only that, but even if Kyler was good, he’d still be one player on a baseball team

[@jessehammer123]

I really liked Kyler Murray, but with John Fisher in charge he would have either flamed out in the Minors or been traded for worse players in order to further destroy Oakland’s fanbase and thereby reduce opposition to moving them to Vegas.

[@LancasterResponding]

Mark Appel did pitch well for the Phillies during 2022 and I think got an NL Championship ring for his efforts.

[@Brian-nx3yp]

Not putting Joe Mauer in the HOF category aged really well....

[@nrkgalt]

Many phenom pitchers have arm injuries because they are overused by high school and college coaches. MLB should allow teams to create baseball academies in the US for teenagers similar to what they already do in countries like the Dominican Republic. Their coaches would be more careful with the workload of their pitchers.

[@claytonroitenberg7521]

Baseball at the major league level is the hardest sport to adjust to from college & minor league ball some top tier prospects can’t handle how much more quick the game is. Everybody throws hard with crazy movement and can locate. It’s just a different animal. NBA you can have a college kid come in and ball out happens every year multiple guys same with the NFL & even NHL but I would say NHL next when it comes to moving up to the top level

[@daltonfarris]

The cardinals created the farm system and cleaned up signing yougsters throughout the west and southern us. Its no surprise they didnt want a draft to start.

[@benhaney9629]

Is it just me or does Ken Griffey Jr. look good as fuck in his Seattle uniform? I mean no homo but the guy just looks fly as fuck. I mean he looks like a ball player but also like a celebrity… Like a combination of like Willie Mays / Mickey Mantle / Mike Trout / The Fresh Prince / Usher.

[@jackdaniels7653]

It’s okay to be homo lol

[@JesusChrist2000BC]

I always like Seattle's uniforms especially their old school logo and uniform. Navy blue and white is just a classy look.

[@walterbison]

Harold Baines does not belong in Cooperstown. Tony LaRussa's lobbying is the only reason he's there.

[@mavensbaseball]

Not sure if it would effect anything, but if a player is traded and that new player does well then I wouldn't call them a bust for their original team becuase they got the vaule from another player. Also if a player didn't sign, I would look at who the team drafted the next year in the compensation pick.

[@pigoen8821]

Josh Hamilton is not a bust, he won an MVP

[@whywhy3289]

For the team that originally drafted him he was

[@FuckYoutubeAndGoogle]

​@whywhy3289 That's not what a bust is though.

[@whywhy3289]

@@FuckKZbinAndGoogle that’s how the video guy classified it. And Honestly with Hamilton I kinda consider him that for the Rays. He was pretty much out of baseball and had to go to rehab, then after along journey made it back.

[@FuckYoutubeAndGoogle]

@whywhy3289 Obviously, I'm disputing how he's classified in the video, as well.

[@whywhy3289]

@@FuckKZbinAndGoogle I think it was dumb to include guys that were traded, like Adrian Gonzales as busts, but I get Hamilton, he was borderline on his way out of the league before someone took a chance on him, after years of falling apart, So yeah the team that drafted him got nothing.

[@jeffjones8866]

For every Ken Griffey JR,Alex Rodríguez, Chipper Jones, Bryce Harper there is so many failed prospects as this list shows. Prospecting is baseball is nearly impossible.

[@kendraftman]

Can you do a Video that explains why the success rate of NFL QB's in the 1st. Round (and overall) is MUCH LOWER than MLB's 1st picks???

[@jonnyblayze5149]

Yeah because they only got 17 games to produce

[@shaunnichols1743]

Define success

[@Will-hc4xv]

Very well written video!

[@peterfox2256]

Stop saying "the MLB." It's just "MLB." Unlike other leagues, it doesn't make sense to add the "the" to the title.

[@jaylenbarnes2.079]

Great Video

[@janetlightfoot1593]

Great video!

[@lildurpy]

Can you please do all Blue Jays forst round picks ever??? 💙💙🇨🇦

[@Therealmrstealyowifi]

11:15 I’m not sure if this was before the all star game or not, but Dansby made the all star team, he was just hurt

[@kod8933]

Phillies drafting recently been a complete bust. It's a shame. Moniak is a bust already

[@benhaney9629]

Hitting a baseball has traditionally been called the hardest thing to do in sports… The saying goes back over 100 years. Name one basketball or football player that was also a fighter pilot war hero. Because I can name like five baseball player / fighter pilots. Including Ted Fucking Williams… Who flew 37 combat missions and apparently set training pilot gunnery score records that stand to this day. Baseball is far from the most athletic sport but it takes the most SKILL. Which is why it’s harder to pick baseball prospects. Basketball and football rely much more on pure athleticism and that’s easier to spot at a younger age. For strength and speed and toughness it’s football, for pure jump out of the gym athleticism it’s basketball, hell for pure endurance it’s probably soccer but for hand eye skill and just pure skill in general it’s baseball. Hands down. Especially hitting. While pitching is just such a rare specialty with such strain on the arm and such a high chance of career ending injury. Fielding is less of a rarified talent and less inborn. It’s more of something that can be practiced and honed but it’s by no means easy. Plus it’s like a whole separate sport from hitting. Again baseball is the most skill oriented sport and it’s simply easier to spot athleticism than skill. Of course work ethic and attitude as well as simple bad luck, mostly injuries, play probably the largest role in the reality of athletic busts… And that goes for all sports.

[@benhaney9629]

Yeah I feel really good about that comment. Argument over. Lol.

[@benhaney9629]

I would at first say baseball prospects players have less of a sample size because they they do a lot of their development AFTER they are drafted (and I see you were kind of going in this direction) but on second thought that’s not really true. Yes the NFL always has high school and at least 3 years of college to look at but the NBA only has high school and a year or two of college usually and baseball teams don’t HAVE to draft a single player out of high school. They can wait for all 4 years of high school or only draft literal pros from other major leagues around the world. Actually I’d say the NHL probably drafts the youngest players and they do much better with number one picks than the MLB. Plus baseball was first on analytics and have always valued stats and like specific detailed player scouting and the reliance on experienced scouts with decades of experience and the respect they get etc.

[@benhaney9629]

The astronaut John Glenn was Ted Williams wingman in Korea and he was also a big baseball fan and he said in his opinion Williams was a better fighter pilot than a baseball player and that if it was only a consideration of what he was better at and not like you know fame or money or love of the game he should have stayed in the Marines. It’s hard to quantify becomes Williams combat specialty was ground attack craft so he didn’t rack up fighter kills. He wasn’t an ace but again he did set records in training and made a famous crash landing after getting shot up that people say a vast majority of pilots wouldn’t have lived through…

[@benhaney9629]

Basically landing at full speed with with inoperative landing gears, so on the planes belly, while it was on fire, with shot up malfunctioning hydraulics. Men really were men back then. Here’s one of the most famous and wealthiest athletes in the country and he served in two major wars. Lost five seasons of his baseball career. (and his chance at a few records including the big one, I mean he hit around 525 home runs so Ruth’s record would have been a bit of a stretch but by no means impossible with 5 more seasons in his prime. He almost certainly would have the lifetime RBI record though. Not that people care about that stat anymore. Because hitting better than anyone else in the most important situations to do the thing, score runs, that the games result is literally based on isn’t important at all…)

[@TKainZero]

You keep saying the dodgers took Adrian Gonzalez first. The marlins did. The dodgers have never had a first pick.

[@cagedtigersteve]

It's proof that MLB is a harder sport.

[@ZaKRo-bx7lp]

I feel like teams have gotten better at drafting and singing undrafted free agents, I mean just look at the Orioles.

[@damitzdesign]

Did he really say the greatest #1 pick of all time is Rodriguez over Griffey?!?

[@whywhy3289]

I mean if you look at the full career, Rodriguez didn’t have to deal with the injuries Griffey did. I still think peak Griffey is better though

[@daltonfarris]

Carlos correa is closer to the hall of fame than joe mauer, or david price imo. Mauer should get in, price is not a hall of famer.

[@jordandennis6794]

Baseball isn't an easy sport.

[@gosato]

adrian gonzalez is NOT a bust!

[@yussepyperez399]

Since when is Adrian González a bust

[@Edo9River]

And if you had to live in LA and listen to the dodgers radio station Rick Monday and Vin Skully pour derision and scorn on any team and player not in the Dodgers or grudgingly the Yankees

[@burningphoneix]

Messy jumbled up video.

[@JamieAtSLC]

Please stop calling it “the MLB”

[@darrenmashl5706]

video is confusing