The Man Who Wants Us Dead

The biggest bomb doesn't explode how you would think. Let's explore the population bomb.
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The Population Bomb by Paul Ehrlich: amzn.to/3Mo3lH5
10 Reasons We’re Wrong About the World by Hans Rosling: amzn.to/3FELJDc
The Ultimate Resource by Julian Simon: amzn.to/3MlE3JM
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The most pressing threat to civilization is us -- and paradoxically, we’re also the solution. When Paul Ehrlich published “The Population Bomb” in 1968, he ushered in an era of doomsday predictions that we’re still in. There are more than twice as many people in the world now than when his book came out, and Ehrlich insists that the population bomb just hasn’t gone off yet.
But optimists like Julian Simon see something else happening. They acknowledge that man-made threats of destruction are not only challenges we can solve -- and that we’re in a better position every day to eliminate our problems -- but that we’re also better off for it.
The philosophical differences between Ehrlich and Simon led to the most famous bet in the world, a bet over natural resources that was really a bet about the future of the human race. And as wrong as Paul Ehrlich has proven to be, we’re so hard-wired to think like him that it’s actually perfectly reasonable to conclude we’re perpetually facing disaster.
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Twitter: / kevinlieber
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Research and Writing by Matthew Tabor
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Editing by John Swan
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What did you think about the population theory of The Population Bomb by Paul Ehrlich? Subscribe for more science, history, and education videos every month!
#Education #Science #Vsauce #History #doomsday #Humanity #populationbomb

[@Vsauce2]

Subscribe to the Foundation for Economic Education: bit.ly/feeyt

[@guy-]

Feet?

[@adamferguson5468]

Next stop, Prager U gravy train?

[@planecrashcorner7283]

@adamferguson5468 I wouldn't be surprised if Ben Shapiro funds the next video

[@dothedrew93]

I’ll pass.

[@travelsizedlions]

Already did! Their stuff is great

[@jack.h99]

Overpopulation alarmist fans vs human prosperity enjoyers

[@user-ik8tb5qh7c]

How you comment so fast if the video is an hour long?

[@jack.h99]

@@user-ik8tb5qh7c Because I had a general idea of where the video was going and what the main point was going to be.

[@GameTimeWhy]

​@@user-ik8tb5qh7cmuch like our protagonist, he saw the writing on the wall.

[@ShatteredKnight]

@@jack.h99 It felt like 5 minutes

[@captainobscurity491]

​@@ShatteredKnightamongus

[@dracotoy]

"Im not wrong, its just that every single every person and data point is wrong. Because im peer reviewed" he is DELUSIONAL

[@TheBigChoomah]

1 In 10 are starving today.

[@dracotoy]

@@TheBigChoomah starvation has never been a supply issue, its a logistics and transportation issue. Learn what the actual problems are first

[@TheBigChoomah]

@dracotoy It's cruel to adopt a dog when you have a 0% chance of being able to feed and water it properly is it not.

[@mastpg]

​@@dracotoy...never YET. There is zero evidence to suggest that "yet" shouldn't be included. The problem with dismissing the carrying capacity idea is that all your data is backward looking. Furthermore, there's the legitimate concern that every addition human is a burden the global system. Can we ally technology and efficiency such that we won't also need to engage austerity and mortal sacrifice...? Well, there isn't an answer other than "maybe" or "we can expect a self-correction" or "we don't need to be worried about it yet"....seriously, no definitive statement of nth level optimism can exist. Furthermore, if at any point we decide that another stage of human action is needed, are we sure we won't have already passed the point where the carrying capacity maximization we've already embarked upon won't make that new stage impossible?

[@revmsj]

@@dracotoyit’s also a tyranny problem.

[@trime1015]

Doomsayer: YOU WILL ALL DIE, UNLESS YOU GIVE ME POWER Doomslayer: Not true, here is why.. Doomsayer and crowd: You are EVIL, you want us all to DIE.

[@ulischmidt03]

*BFG Division plays*

[@corticallarvae]

It’s about better education…. Not indoctrination . Great dialectic though.

[@metalmike570]

@@corticallarvae Yeah, let's not elect Biden again.

[@Gernot66]

@@metalmike570 Hä?

[@metalmike570]

@@Gernot66 You're right, he's not really a war monger I guess.

[@Lone432345]

What Ehrlich wanted sounds a lot like eugenics.

[@DrDeuteron]

that's what got Miliken canceled, but if it's for The Planet, you get a pass.

[@THEScottCampbell]

I read "The Population Bomb" as a child. I've learned a lot since then, and not from that book. You learn more about the psychology of Paul Ehrlich from that book than about anything else. China took Ehrlich's advice and their country is collapsing on itself. People aren't butterflies.

[@rd264]

the book is correct re overpopulation, its the root cause of the dysfunctional and sad state of the World today.

[@joshmiller9783]

They definitely didnt take his advice they had their own population boom they couldnt support.....

[@metalmike570]

You don't think the USA is collapsing. I got news for you.

[@user-kz3fl7bq3n]

and communism, alot of communism, god thats alot of communism.

[@bubbajones6907]

Ehrlich is basically a feminist sustainability guru.

[@samthestache8]

Optimism in regards to the state of the world? This is a breath of fresh air. Its been far too long since I've seen or heard anyone talking like this and having good things to say.

[@insederec]

I need it like I need oxygen to breathe. Feels like I'm suffocating on second-hand twitter takes.

[@allanshpeley4284]

@@insederecWhy not just pull the plug? Who needs that garbage?

[@insederec]

@@allanshpeley4284 I don't have social media.

[@alejandropulidorodriguez9723]

​@@insederecgot suspended on twitter, best thing that ever happened to me

[@Dave_of_Mordor]

​@@allanshpeley4284 well you still need to keep up with the state of the world, right?

[@kathrynck]

Only one? I thought there was a whole club, which meets every year in Switzerland.

[@jonathanalexander9881]

You know what's crazy about that? The amount of people who know about the fact that world leaders meet yearly to discuss the direction of our lives and yet we can do nothing about it.

[@kathrynck]

@@jonathanalexander9881 I keep thinking that surely not every world power is thrilled with the WEF... and that Davos might be an unusually dangerous city to live in as a result.

[@metalmike570]

The WEF

[@metalmike570]

@@kathrynck No more dangerous than any other major US city.

[@KMF3]

Exactly

[@FernandoFonseca1]

Oh man, thank you so much for this. In the world of 5 minute attention span, you got me hooked to the entire video and enlighten me to think beyond the evident bad news presented to us. Thank you for this from the frontal top of my brain.

[@LifeAsANoun]

I think there's less and less space for intellectually honest in-depth content about serious subjects. This was really something. Very well done.

[@SuperLifestream]

I was hoping 99942 Apophis was going to hit earth. but it wont :(

[@user-ct6sy5ky8p]

There are less and less intellectual people, we are doomed! 😂

[@Jako1987]

​@@SuperLifestreamIt would be quite a show. But good that it doesn't hit.

[@tieegg]

You watched the Ken Ham vs Bill Nye debate too?

[@Nooticus]

agreed ^ Thank you so much Kevin

[@Allanfallan]

I feel like the ideology that leads people to thinking that everything will only get worse is very similar to the ideology that humans couldn't have built something like the pyramids. If enough people come together to work on a problem, there's very little that humans can't overcome.

[@getphuked2]

Disagree, look @ the power man has now. What's the only thing they can think to do with that power? GREED.☹

[@redgreen2453]

I guess the thing holding me back from getting any sense of optimism from that is that it really feels like most of the world’s problems are also _caused_ by people and that we only solve them when our backs are against the wall and we absolutely have to

[@custos3249]

Yeah, but most people are coming together behind capitalism rather than acting in their own biological, fundamental interests.

[@mixstardust429]

Yeah, it's why fascists and neocons are pretty much always conspiracy theorists, Malthusian philosophy is on its face built entirely on lateral thinking, making connections between every possible cause and saying that they're all the same. Problem is, of course, that Malthus is wrong. We aren't hungry, lazy masses seeking to only breed and eat, in fact most of us are very willing to put in work and thought into not only improving the world but sustaining it.

[@mixstardust429]

@@redgreen2453 Yeah, but the people who mainly cause those problems are typically the type of people who are Malthusian and/or Machiavellian, so what we should do is limit that type of thinking because it's exactly what results in it happening. If we look at the 1927 Einstein-Bohr debate (fifth solvay conference), we can see the brightest minds of the early 20th century all gathered together, around half of them are Jewish. If the Malthusian, Machiavellian Hitler would've got the world as he wanted it, most of those scientists would've been killed. It isn't ever a realistic proposition, because it only works for those who have or are seeking power and control, and not for anyone else

[@williamwakefield1017]

Unbelievably fantastic video. Some of my absolute favorite and most resonating messages and stories are the ones that have come from here on Vsauce2.

[@ninjaslayer9248]

Ngl, idk why I didn’t know what he was hinting at💀 but when I finally heard that “You” at the end, it kind of made me rethink everything and as someone who likes to think of myself as a person who can probably do a little more if I actually put my heart into it, it made me tear up thinking about the callings I never got to answer and how different life would’ve been if maybe I did do what I wanted instead of trying so hard to appease the people around me which is mostly my family. I think I’m done turning my back on the world and would want to start now by doing better for not only me but to potentially my future generations’ home and being🙏 take care everyone and be safe out there

[@kallista5194]

Idealist, which is an organization, so it ends with the abbreviation of the word "organization"

[@user-eo8kx1dk7f]

I didn’t tear up but I did notice I’ve become a bit pessimistic over the last three decades. One thing I learned from this video, I’ve been concentrating on all the negative things happening and not enough on how to change it for the better. My mother tried to convey positive theory’s to me early on and I laughed at her. I’m not laughing now but I sure feel more optimistic for the future. 😉

[@XXXoXXoXXXX]

That's funny. I cried there too.

[@Templarzealot89]

Thank you for making this. Not enough people are making content like this. The world is in desperate need of some hopeium

[@FirstNameLastName-okayyoutube]

I didn't like how the video started because I thought it was going to be nihilist porn.

[@sandyago4735]

​@FirstNameLastName-okayyoutube oh... then make your own. I look fwd to watching

[@emanym]

Not enough for me. I still do not trust nations with high birth rates.

[@Milen983]

It is not hopeiun, simple truth.

[@sanriosonderweg]

@@Milen983 Leaves out dysgenics.

[@Leron...]

I really needed this video. Thank you, non-Balloon Kevin, for all of your hard work in putting this information together and reminding me about our ability to overcome the odds.

[@Cancellator5000]

Yeah, very inspirational. I need to avoid the doom and gloom and focus on what I can do to make the world better more.

[@normalhuman512]

I'd like to thank balloon Kevin, too, for the emotional support he provides

[@voice2skull.]

Don't go popping his 🎈

[@Pandaemoni]

I read the Population Bomb in my late teens and I definitely got the impression that the "People people people" Erlich was concerned about were the brown people of the world. I lived in NYC at the time, and we had the same population density as Bangladesh, but he wasn't at all concerned about sterilizing New Yorkers.

[@patientzerobeat]

It wasn't about population _density_ in any particular local area, but about population _growth_. The USA and other "western industrialized"" countries had (and have) very low population growth compared to, say, many African or Asian countries The skin colour was tangental to the demographic. The mere fact of having a crowded apartment, neighbourhood, subway car or even entire city wasn't the entire story. Furthermore, have you ever even been to, say, Manila or Kathmandu or Dhaka? They're WAY more dense than NYC, which is only 25% as dense as the most dense city. NYC isn't even in the top 100 densest cities.

[@Pandaemoni]

@patientzerobeat My impression reading it was that he was clearly disgusted by the "people, people, people, people" he saw in India, not by the mere growth rates of the population around him. He didn't emphasize growth rates in that passage. But he never evinced any such disgust in describing densely populated cities in the western world, which I suppose _could_ have been coincidence.

[@jeronimo196]

Maybe the conditions related to children starving to death - while their parents continue to have more children - had something to do with his disgust. Or he's a disgusting, evil racist. When in doubt, always assume racism, that's what I say.

[@patientzerobeat]

@@Pandaemoni, I think you need to experience a truly high density area of the world, which will make NYC seem like nothing to get all hot and bothered about. There is simply no comparison.

[@Pandaemoni]

@@patientzerobeat It's been a while since I was a teenager, and since then I have been to Bangladesh, Manila, Delhi, and a few other places thought to be very crowded, though I am not sure what places you are thinking of. We have not seen the problems Erlich predicted on the scale he asserted they would manifest. While every place has its challenges to be solved, I have come to think of people as the solution to most problems, not merely as problem-causers whose very existence is to be regretted. I also still believe, obviously, that Erlich's palpable disgust was, in part and perhaps subconsciously, a result of a certain racist sensibility that saw population growth as a real issue, but high non-white population density as a reason for true disgust. Maybe that is not true of the man, but, if so, he really should have edited The Popularion Bomb a little better to remove that implication. At the time I read it, I found it convincing, but a little racist. That then led to me reading other, more recent, studies on the same topic where I learned the book was largely wrong in its dire predictions (at least in the time frames it was predicting those problems). Still, nothing I read changed my opinion that the book would have even more persuasive if the pointedly misanthropic passages were less targeted at non-white populations than they seemed to be. Still, llike the quatrains of Nostradamus, we can read the book to be a prophesy of future disaster even though it was not proven right in its own age, but I think that requires a generous reading of some of the predictions. For example, global warming is a problem, but thus far the greatest cause of that problem has been the western world, not the places that had the highest poplation density. It is possible that will change at some point, but historically the issue has been caused more by the affluence of countries than it has been by their high population growth.

[@shaunh1725]

“Adding more people causes problems. But people are also the means to solve these problems.” It seems that Ehrlich understood the first part, but Simon understood both the first and second part of that quote.

[@danpaz9485]

Not if you have the adequate resources to educate, than they may end up not contributing for a society, instead bringing more people without the means for them to solve the problems. Its more of a capitalist problem and to some extent compliance amongst those who dont see the problem with the system and its exploitation under the guise of the market

[@SidMajors]

I feel like the saying “If the only tool you own is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail” can be said about many people looking at the globe as a whole.

[@Donaithnen]

Two things which need to be emphasized but are often glossed over when talking about Simon's philosophy. 1: In order for more people to fix more problems those problems need to be identified. Ehrlich was correct in identifying potential problems, it was only his prognosis that was incorrect. While he was shouting that everyone was doomed other people were actually solving the problems he identified. There's nothing wrong with identifying problems and publicizing them even if (or especially if!) those problems are then solved and the potentially dire consequences never come about. We couldn't have fixed (for example) the Y2K bug or the Ozone hole if people hadn't identified and talked about those problems first. 2: More people can solve more problems _if_ they're educated and not trapped in poverty. One of our first goals as a species should be to eliminate poverty and guarantee education for everyone. Even if world birth rates continue to go down (as currently projected) a future population of 4 billion people who are all well educated and self-sufficient will be able to accomplish far more than our current population of 8 billion people living under a system of rampant and widespread inequality.

[@andrasbiro3007]

The problem with that is Malthusians want less people and more poverty to preserve resources. That's on of the fundamental flaw of their thinking. The other big one is the assumption that resources are finite. In reality we are just very inefficient with some, which can be fixed with better technologies. For example if Africans would have access to the same technologies and machines that American farmers use, nobody would starve, they would be struggling with obesity too. And that's still super primitive compared to what's already possible at lab scale.

[@ComotoseOnAnime]

@@TheLevifrancisco You could even say it's a "Problem that's been identified and in need of correction." lmao. Because overinflated importance is just as deadly as enforced ignorance. Overabundant emissions could have been solved ages ago if we went full bore into nuclear power instead of "renewables" that are hardly renewable considering all the resources that go into making wind turbines and solar panels that don't even have a long term plan on how to recycle those resources. Meanwhile we have places like France that run almost entirely on nuclear power and doing great meanwhile Germany going full bore into renewables and suffering for it. Yes pointing out problems for people to solve is important but make sure they're actually problems in the first place. Take for instance the "Homelessness problem." in the US isn't a homelessness problem, it's a drug and mental illness problem, homelessness is just a side effect and you can't fix the drug and mental illness problem by giving people houses or even the opportunity to buy houses. Not to mention California and New York Alone contribute to over 40% of the united states homeless population (600k for a population of 340 million btw), so one could argue that the US doesn't have a homeless problem when two states with 1/6th the country's population is contributing to nearly half it's homeless population.

[@odinata]

Our first goal should be to grow at a sustainable level. 4 people can live in your house in relative comfort. 4000 in your house and tell me how "rich" everybody is.

[@odinata]

The real problem is that the RICH want more people and more poverty, because only poor people work. Rich people aren't going to mow your lawn, clean your house, make yoiur food, pack your meat, or farm yoiur fields. Thats why the rich LOVE poverty , immigration, and the hig fertility and squalid living conditions that the masses are forced to endure. Its the new slavery.@@andrasbiro3007

[@odinata]

How about 8?@@TheLevifrancisco

[@PopeSaltyI]

What Simon and the "more is better" crowd don't seem to take into consideration is: Many of the increases in food production have come from "rob Peter to pay Paul" sorts of solutions. We cut down rain forests to gain farmland. We tap into rapidly-emptying aquifers to irrigate crops. All the Simonesque optimism in the world doesn't change the indisputable fact that we have an ever-growing population on a finite world. We have been able to push that limit, but that doesn't mean the limit does not exist. Eventually, Eldrich will be right. It's just a matter of when.

[@shaungrundle3236]

Yep

[@2drx4]

I'm glad you made this one. Alarmism always sells, and often leads to policy that is far worse than what would have happened without centrally planned intervention.

[@Trahloc]

It was so good to see Hans Rosling get recognized in this. The world lost a great man when he left us.

[@andy-the-gardener]

one down, 8 billion to go. oops no, its nearly 9 billion now lol

[@kimitohanahala8674]

​@@andy-the-gardenerhere hoping to see the 69 billion

[@TheDunestyler]

@@kimitohanahala8674 let's go to space... also: ya better do your part! breed af.

[@Tore_Lund]

@@andy-the-gardener Except Rosling was wrong. He was only concerned about what current wheat production was capable of feeding. He was not concerned about what the planet can sustain.

[@andy-the-gardener]

@@Tore_Lund roslin certainly was wrong. big time.

[@IndrasChildDeepAsleep]

This should be the standard for educational videos (and it goes WAY beyond many on this platform). Thank you for doing this for everyone! I've been watching Vsauce and Vsauce2 since I was a kid. Much appreciation.

[@beamshooter]

same here. showed my younger cousin (highschooler now) and he got hooked watching the classics

[@v2ike6udik]

DeepAsleep :D MördörLuciferian fake Mocking other MördörLuciferian. Can you please be honest and tell the lamb they are completely dead.

[@intellectually_lazy]

in'net didn't be when i was a kid

[@intellectually_lazy]

you had to irl walk, up hill both ways, mind you, down to a brick and mortar retailer, what we use to call a "store", and buy our vsauce in a jar ,and try not to drop it on the way home (jars were glass then)

[@IndrasChildDeepAsleep]

@@intellectually_lazy Was the Vsauce in a heavy sugar syrup? Or was it in creamy chonk condition?

[@NClark-lp3bq]

Thank you for making such, probably one of your most touching and impactful videos yet :)

[@jeffrussell7753]

Well put and thanks for taking the time and effort to spread this !

[@seoulbrotherno1]

This is a great companion video to "The Man Killed for Saving the World." The story of Ignaz Semmelweis can make you feel like there is no hope for humanity -especially when it is paired with Planck's observation that "science moves forward one funeral at a time." Thanks for pulling me back from the brink!

[@maxs007]

Thank you. This type of journalism is needed. You combined the factual and emotional aspects of this discussion in a beautiful and vibrant way. Thank you for using your finite time to inspire the next generation.

[@user-iu8cb2bx4h]

you're a different one brudda

[@Aspect.04]

@@user-iu8cb2bx4h brudda dog, da dog wit da brudda on 'im

[@daMillenialTrucker]

i am inspired to eat more mac n cheese while watching vsauce2

[@MrZoomZone]

Once accustomed to your presentation style I found this a stunning good presentation with a great summing up and with clear oration that can be listened to while eyes elsewhere if need be. Thank you.

[@dr.jamesolack8504]

‘accustomed’ being the key word. The ‘style’ wore me down to a nub.

[@richardparker3273]

What a refreshing take on the state of things. It's nice to see some optimism, based on reasonable observation and analysis.

[@epicfilmer2474]

Hey, loved the video, just one small issue near the end. Chinas current extreme poverty rate is absolutely not below 1%. Maybe in CCP reported figures that’s true, but outside of any major city center the vast majority of people are in that extreme poverty window. The China Show does a great job in showing off the reality of China as former residents of the country, and I highly recommend giving them a watch. :)

[@TheOriginalDocPsycho]

Thank you for this video. I was doom-scrolling the internet and falling deeper and deeper in to depression and misery. Your video lifted me up and out.

[@EmeraldView]

😂 Time is short. Wage slave and make some KZbinrs "rich" in the final days.

[@kimitohanahala8674]

Wish you the best, man.

[@TheDunestyler]

There was never a reason to be doom-scrolling.

[@stereo-soulsoundsystem5070]

lolol adhd+depression are two buddy

[@box-botkids3267]

The ending of this video was poetic, tragic, and hopeful. It's videos like this that fulfill the original promise of the internet.

[@way-13]

An unbelievably beautiful video. Almost like a publication or lecture. Thank you for having such an analytical, well thought and informed script. This is just. Just. Just so good.

[@Biosquid239]

Its great to see a video like this. Its difficult to articulate to people just how powerful humans are when it comes to finding solutions to problems and progressing. Its just hard to see, and as you said your brain just doesn't want to think about it that way either which makes it even more difficult. More people should be aware of this stuff, its just a nice mindset to be in imo

[@user-ik8tb5qh7c]

The homeless man you see in the street eats as well as a man from a thousand years ago

[@carsonhunt4642]

Lmao. Sort of hard to achieve, create, or innovate any creative solutions when our society essentially just wants wage slaves to manage the status quo. The amount of talent that goes to waste in America, for many reasons (politics, “need the next check, little opportunity for smart people.) is absolutely sickening. The boomer system of misery loves company is a massive shame, arguably the biggest failure ever of humans. End of the day we prove we are emotional after all, not logical as we wish.

[@user-ik8tb5qh7c]

@carsonhunt4642 no opportunity for smart people in America? You get any proof for that or just making up something

[@thomascromwell6840]

​@@user-ik8tb5qh7cthe average man ate every day, had shelter and worked. If he was away from civilisation , he could hunt and fish in lands and waters that are now privately owned or prohibited from use because we have hunted so many land species to extinction.

[@user-ik8tb5qh7c]

@thomascromwell6840 no seasoning no spices no good fruits or vegetables no charity from others

[@ukrainewarroom8410]

This is probably the best, most thought provoking video ive ever seen on youtube. Well done!

[@bertpasquale5616]

This may be the best thing I’ve seen on KZbin all year. AWESOMESAUCE!

[@pheresy1367]

Wow! All this was going on in the background while I was growing up. It was never spelled out like this, but I remember school teachers relaying Ehrlich's rap... I remember kids from religious families totally discounting it. I was in 9th grade when our entire class watched a documentary about "the population bomb". I watched The Tonight Show regularly too. This video filled in many of the gaps in my understanding of that time. I graduated HS 1973.

[@jakemelinko]

I remember hearing about it and not believing it

[@ChillinWithTheCapuchins]

Today was the first time I noticed the click sound at each transition in the video. And it's not even always the same audio clip. What awesome details in the editing!

[@LunaErosStudios]

Good presentation but I have to ask.... Where the hell did you get a bomb casing from?!!!

[@niyanlan8928]

Breathtakingly good video. Fantastically written and excellent production - thank you for being a voice of reason in today’s world.

[@NorbertFuto]

Amazing story and lesson. It is unbelievable how can you produce better and better videos every single time.

[@TheRenxl]

This was wonderful. It articulates so much that I haven't been sure how to express to others and I thank you for teaching me about history and science, but also for entertaining all of us along the way!

[@thomasetavard2031]

I am in the Julian Simon camp, for sure, even though this is the first-time hearing about him, at least in this level of detail. Thank you for making this and explaining both sides of this subject matter as it gives us a better understanding of the issues at play. We cannot correct something we do not know about even though we can tell there is a problem.

[@sparkybob1023]

i love your enthusiasm and this video. There are so many concepts here. Its hard to determine the 5 most important points as every point gets the same kind of ALL CAPS, treatment, This is meant as a kind criticism. My brain would like some modulation. so that i can pick up the important parts.. like a chorus in a song. There are limits i would expect at some point.

[@bkind2every1now93]

This would mainly be avoided if more of the world understood the demographic transition model. Over time, countries develop economically, socially, and demographically, and their birth rates eventually tank with the development of a more industrialized society. Already in countries like Germany and South Korea, we can see fertility rates fall BELOW replacement rate, so their populations are actually declining. That is eventually where our most updated and unbiased models predict the rest of the world is heading. Hans Rosling, referenced in the video, has an incredible talk somewhere on the internet entitled ‘Don’t Panic’, Jennifer Sciubba has an awesome TED talk called ‘The Truth About Human Population Decline’. Thank you for expressing these ideas in such a clear and compelling way, Kevin!

[@itsOZone]

yeah most scientists think the world population will hit about 10b then cap off, birth rates in some places are already lower than rate of death. across the world the birth rate is already 30% lower than it was 20 years ago. all it takes is for the birth rate to fall below 2 children per woman on average and you have a population decline.

[@MathiasMartinWR]

Its a model predicated on the association between 'development' which is a construct derived from multiple different variates and birthrates. No guarantee that industrialization is the causation given the total lack of control in this observation (good luck funding an experiment to actually test any of this though). Seeing mental and physical health issues are also skyrocketing with these developments I tend towards the hypothesis its a change in food and environment that has led to the declining birth rates and rise in poor health outcomes. Still only a hypothesis though. Basically we have set natural selection to hyperdrive because of the rapid change in environment and food over the last century. Declining birth rates are those being selected against. Its also something I think we could address if we actually took the metabolic epidemic seriously.

[@monad_tcp]

@@MathiasMartinWR "No guarantee that industrialization is the causation " It is the causation as you don't see it on any previous human era. We have the entirety of the human history as control. Its only now that's different.

[@0zyris]

@@MathiasMartinWR A large proportion of children in developed societies are not planned. They are "happy accidents". Our carnal desires used to result in families of six to eight kids. Then we invented birth control and in two or three generations that dropped to around two. Emancipation of women and the desire for modern possessions also pressured towards smaller families, as it was no longer automatic that the ladies would stay at home and cook and reproduce. The blurring of gender lines and the collapse of the "traditional" family also causes fewer families with fewer children. Developed countries adjust this situation by attracting migration from underdeveloped countries, either intentionally or not. Those from underdeveloped countries tend to have larger families for the opposite of the above reasons. In the UK, for example, the indigenous population (of which I am one) is decreasing while the overall population is increasing.

[@toseltreps1101]

​@@MathiasMartinWRlul, you talk about a lack of a control experiment while making perhaps the stupidest of all guesses 😂😂😂 way to expose yourself as cognitively impaired

[@Arterexius]

I used to follow the Venus Project, back when Jacque Fresco was still alive and I still use one of his quotes whenever I hear the doomsday folks ring their bells. "If you think we cannot change the world, it just means you're not one of those who will"

[@philabu7376]

Probably the most important piece you've produced... so far.. thanks

[@pclark3389]

Please keep making longer content like this

[@leftyknox72]

This is reaching levels of optimism that you would normally see in a Vsauce 1 video. Keep up the great work!

[@sinenomine4540]

since when is unhinged hopium and ignorance "good work"?

[@simonpuech432]

Thanks for your videos! I've followed you for quite a few years now and I am especially moved by the ones you've put out in the past 1-2 year! Looking forward to seeing more incredible videos :)

[@slatebook2384]

The most interesting video about catastrophic tendencies I've seen in years. You have done a very good job here. Thank you.

[@jensphiliphohmann1876]

This is a really inspiring video. I have to add that, paradoxically in a more prosperous societies, people tend to have less children, probably because they are confident that their children will grow up and have children themselves.

[@casteretpollux]

Also worked too hard to have proper time for family

[@claudealpha2090]

Only one comma separates "Do something, stupid." from "Do something stupid." Loved that

[@rpgcraftsman520]

That ending for Julian Simon reminds me of the tragic irony of Vincent Van Gogh. Van Gogh was a man whose art was universally panned in his day, to the point he committed suicide. Nowadays, everyone loves his art, and everyone who knows Don MacLean for more than American Pie knows his story. The only difference I can see is their respective chosen fields.

[@BecomeUncancellable]

This is heroic work to put something like this together. You've also done a great job at making it presentable enough to show to a total oblivious normie. Bravo Vsauce!

[@maxheadrom3088]

Mr. Vsauce ... I have been away from your videos for a while - it wasn't planned, though. I must say, once again, that you made one of the best videos I've ever seen - and I'm not only talking about KZbin videos: the one about how Wallgreens knew the dude's daughter was pregnant before he did and that then went into talking about how people die. A masterpiece of depth, relevante and conciseness (or however that word is written).

[@landonrice]

Damn dude, that last monologue was fantastic. Probably your best video to date.

[@ArtForSwans]

This recent (?) trend of science KZbinrs using facts and evidence to dispel doomsday pessimism is super refreshing.

[@collinstanton]

Truly enjoyed the show. Shared to my social media.

[@ericstephenbrenner]

This video was very important for me, thank you. My step-father was a fan of the club of rome and I got fed with the negative "we are all gonna die"-attitude while growing up. The last 30 years however, I observe the world with my own eyes and tell my wife since years that I can see that everything is slowly geting better. My wife is still pessimistic, giving the political right-shift that seem to occur in the world and so on. But I can see that the young people from today think vastly different than we did. There is teen-idiocy still and it will be here forever, but the general state of even the youngest ones in our world is getting better, their ideas and thoughts are way more constructive than ours back then. My own daughter is way more educated then we could ever be, because we simply had not the possibility to hop on to he internet and educate ourselves more thouroughly. But regardless of that, I needed this video to realize that even when seeing that the world is indeed getting better with baby-steps all the time, I still had the doomsday mentality burnt into my brain I was educated on as I was a child myself. Progress is slow, but it happens. Thanks to this video, I can finally get rid of some of the stuff that cloged my brain. Thank you.

[@hexisplus9104]

This is one of the most important videos that has been on this channel. Mainly for understanding behaviours of politicians and other groups around the world.

[@macsnafu]

Wow, what a great video. You presented it so well, I wasn't even sure which side you would fall into until about half-way through. More people are part of the problem, but also, as you noted, part of the solution. More people means more ideas, more creativity, more division of labor, and so forth. I'm with Julian in the optimistic camp. I had a college professor who suggested that as our food production has historically increased, the amount of food per person was being lowered. That was back in the 80s. But any study of history and agriculture and food production has shown that this is not true. More people than ever are being fed, and it's a pretty good quantity and quality for most of them. And, as already noted by other commenters, wealthier nations tend to have fewer children, regardless of the abundance of resources. And the Tragedy of the commons really deserves its own conversation, because Hardin seemed to not define his situation very well. Or just assumed that most of the world would remain un-privatized. The fencing of grazing lands in the 19th century West proved that privatization of resources is an effective way to prevent the tragedy of the commons. In short the doomsayers make the mistake, among others, of thinking that wealth and resources are a zero sum game, and the more someone has, the less someone else must have. Fortunately for humanity, this is not true. In spite of, or perhaps even because of the increase in population, wealth has been dramatically increased in the world, and resources seem to be stretched and used more effectively, so that resources don't seem to be running out any time soon.

[@dangerousdays2052]

Wrong. The planet's resources are finite. Hoping that more creative people will be born won't change that. Optimism is just a lie that you tell yourself so you don't have to face reality.

[@rodylermglez]

At the very least those two weren't accelerationists. Now THOSE really want us dead.

[@k4rli_475]

i feel like this video has whiped away many of my problem just like that. i am very grateful for it thank you so much. :)

[@CinnamonToastKing]

Ill be the first to admit it.....I was very doom and gloom over population growth. Id still argue I am being ignorant and thinking to myself, "well what about X,Y, or Z?". But I can also say this video has really helped change my views for the better!

[@andrasbiro3007]

It's crazy that people are still afraid of overpopulation, when we are facing population collapse, which is far far worse. Most economic and political issues that we are struggling with today are consequences of the aging population, which precedes the collapse. If you don't believe it, just look up the birth rates and age distribution.

[@naniyotaka]

@@andrasbiro3007 We still have overpopulation… 8 billion is too much, it’s time to shrink. Governments should start figuring out a new pension system which is more sustainable.

[@AndrewManook]

We have a distribution issue not overpopulation. @@naniyotaka

[@M4421-O]

@@naniyotaka We could probably afford to sustain and maintain a population up to 10 billion with the right combination of factors/economic movements/policies all things considered As quality of life rises, people reproduce less because there's less imperative to do so. If we can raise general quality of life worldwide then we don't have much to worry about and it'll plateau at about our maximum.

[@odinata]

Its crazy that you haven't been to a major American city, or Mumbai, Shanghai, London...@@andrasbiro3007

[@Kaizentry]

I have a few moments where I forget how well us humans can work around any crisis and could use some more optimism, usually because of all the negativity being thrown around. This only reaffirms that all of us needs this kind of optimism.

[@numbersix8919]

The Ehrlich-Simon bet was about metals only. These are extracted virtually at the cost of capital investment only and at the expense of immiserated societies in the neo-colonial periphery. What if the most critical commodity of that era - petroleum - had been tracked instead?

[@bitchplease123]

The one finite resource is time, not human beings. There are 8 Billion of us now. Very little of the earth, sea and sky within our atmosphere has not been touched by our meddling. ‘More people, more scars upon the land’ said John Denver. And he was right. Having fewer children also allows you to give each of them more of your time, attention and resources. Folks freak out when they encounter wildlife in their backyard. We have so much suburban sprawl now, where do you expect them to go? We’re squeezing them out of their natural habitat.

[@sentientflower7891]

Elon Musk bought twitter for $44 billion, now you can buy it for $15 billion. Julian Simon was right!!!!!!!

[@ghostmantagshome-er6pb]

When I was a kid in the 70s the "BIG LIE" was we were out of oil. Not the embargo, but we were out of oil. We sucked it dry.

[@klondike444]

Not true. America's conventional oil production peaked around 1970. Economic circumstances allowed fracking to increase US production again for a while from around 2008, but world oil production has now peaked. Since humanity depends on oil, this video is garbage.

[@jaerockchalk3216]

just subbed thanks for talking about these things !

[@chrishammock4544]

Man. That held some power. As you spoke at the end, I could hear the tremor of Simon trying to punch through the ignorance of our own instincts. Some times we must speak with heavy gravitas to force the truth into our collective minds. Seeing you snip the fuse from the bomb as you channeled Simon into your words was fantastic. I will share this with my students. And try to shout through their phones, ignorance, and boredom. Well done. Very well done.

[@Cats-TM]

Wait..along with WWI and II is this what inspired Star Trek's Eugenics War? My house always had milkweed around it and when I was younger my mother would take the eggs and raise them until they were able to fly. She spread around milkweed a lot because of the butterflies. I now have a sense of milkweed whenever I walk through forest preserves and such because of my mother. She is now attempting to grow native plants for the wildlife. Necessity is the mother of invention.

[@cannibalbananas]

It's crazy to think that in my lifetime, the population has nearly doubled (1.78x).

[@JimBoom92]

while fertility is going down super fast...

[@paulgoogol2652]

​@@JimBoom92😏

[@charleyhoward4594]

Ehrlich was born in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the son of William Ehrlich and Ruth Rosenberg. His father was a shirt salesman (unrelated to the German scientist Paul Ehrlich), his mother a Greek and Latin scholar[14] and public school teacher.[6] Ehrlich's mother's Reform-Jewish German ancestors arrived in the United States in the 1840s,

[@TheBurningWarrior]

Ehrlich is the perfect example for the ancient saying "let the cobbler not go beyond his shoe" or the Babylonian "learn of jewelry from jewelers, not bricklayers." He was absolutely right about butterflies, but was not content to restrain or at least qualify his commentary on matters beyond his expertise.

[@IdealisticDog]

Excellent video - the utility of information is paramount to general internalization of it -- good news has little utility, little action, whereas bad news has significant utility in risk avoidance.

[@ApotheosisStone]

Kind of confuses the premise a bit to see 46:05 then follow it with 46:22. Elon is notorious for trying to have way too many kids and being a douche that we kind of think of as evil. I don't know if it was best to include his comment there.

[@tamsynspackman7090]

Wow, this was powerful. What a great overview of a complex subject.

[@spoddie]

34:37 Just to split hairs, but you can't make copper from other metals.

[@KMF3]

Yeah I wondered about that. And it's not splitting hairs. It's very important to be accurate.

[@burkean]

I was wondering that, too. I guess you could make copper from another metal if that metal were bronze.

[@mohabmeshref]

That is a brilliant topic to talk about at this moment in time. Thanks Kevin❤

[@EspHack]

this isnt a black/white issue, there IS a limit to how much people we can fit somewhere before war breaks out, but thanks to our ingenuity and tech we keep raising that ceiling, so its a rate of growth vs improving efficiency rate that we should adhere to for best results, if only this nuance could be easily understood by everyone...

[@_SimpleSam]

I would argue that we aren't anywhere near that limit, and neither will our great grand children be. Much of the planet is uncolonized and/or under colonized.

[@pillarmenn1936]

@@_SimpleSam Lets not tear down more forests and jungles shall we?

[@susansmiles2630]

Thank you for your wonderful work and message! Excellen!

[@msheart2]

"Isn't the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn't it our responsibility to bring that about?" 
~ Maurice Strong, founder of the UNEP

[@tgfje]

What an amazing video! Watched it fully and you bet i'm using these arguments you've presented here to fight for positivity in our lifes.

[@romeodahl1283]

Wow, this actually really opened my mind. Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World - and Why Things Are Better Than You Think is now on the TOP of my reading list.

[@stephenskinner3851]

Thank you sir. You get my vote. Happy New Year to all.

[@jp12x]

This video is proof that you are a person who makes life worth living. Please keep up the amazing work! Thank you!

[@AG-jj3lx]

Doomsayers generally never innovate, produce or invent. They only compound the issues.

[@TorQueMoD]

This is one of the best videos I've watched in ages. Seriously. I shared it with all of my friends and family. Thanks for making this :)

[@jasonnickson4173]

I need content like this. Thank you for the video. Great work

[@TinkerYellowmane]

I just found this and ... they way you presented the information ... ... LITERALLY ... made me shiver. It was such full of hope ... Thank you for this, especially now.

[@Nooticus]

This video is absolutely exceptional. I really wasn't expecting it to be this great, and that's why I think this video has a sadly low amount of views, despite being so incredibly well-researched, and basically the quality of a dissertation. I can see why you haven't uploaded for a while Kevin and its absolutely understadable considering the absolute quality, complexity and length of this video. Thank you!

[@michaelmoorrees3585]

38:30 - Notice, no mention of tungsten's use in incandescent light bulbs. 25 years ago those accounted for the grand majority of the light bulbs. Now they only account for a small percentage, in niche uses. LEDs have taken over most of the lighting uses. Even in some niche areas, such as replacing xenon strobe lights, too.

[@andrewhoyle1521]

This is one of the best KZbin videos I've ever seen. This is an example of the good that exists on these platforms in spite of all the bad thats also their

[@tinaw.5538]

Wow. I actually teared up at the end. So many people never hear often enough just how valuable they are. Lovely. 😊❤

[@Omegawerewolfx]

That's just optimistic nonsense, a blanket used to hide you from the truth.

[@detectiveofrivia311]

Beautiful video. Thank you for highlighting two individuals who represent many in either viewing human life as an asset vs a liability.

[@robogromo3904]

really powerful and well put together video, thank you! if we work together we can build a wonderful future for all

[@MrSen4lifE]

45:15 It feels like that would have hit a lot harder if you said "There's only one _pause_ between" .. Gives the phrase it's proper double meaning

[@chuckgaydos5387]

This reminds me of the U.S. national debt scare of decades ago. People were saying that we have to bring it under control or our descendants will have to pay it. Well, those descendants are here now and the national debt is beyond control, but no one seems to be paying it. We just let it grow.