The Pain of Pre-Match Football Trading

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[@MichaeITheGreat]

I think a better way to pre match trade in football is to look for situations that have not been taken into account by punters in the early market opening. For example, this weekend Brighton were playing Bournemouth. Brightons odds opened at 1.38 which to me seemed to way too short because they had to play Athens on Thursday in Europa whilst Bournemouth had a full week of rest from their last game. Brightons odds just before kick off went out to 1.53 so I ended with a £1.3k free bet on Bournemouth to win. I don’t think the market had taken this into account when the market first opened. It’s something I often look out for. One I’ve got my eye on is Wolves v Aston Villa on 8th October. Villa have opened at 2.08 away from home despite the fact they play in conference league on Thursday night. I also like to compare the odds for similar games from the same team in the past to see if I can validate my argument. Villa were 2.15 to beat Burnley away (similar calibre team to wolves) if anything wolves stronger so 2.08 with a Thursday night game represents value to LAY imo. It is also more likely that Villa will be forced to rotate which could cause the odds to drift even more. I would also keep an eye on results and performances leading up to the match. If Wolves lose heavily in the build up and/or villa win handsomely I’d consider exiting the position as market perception changes and therefore the odds. Hope this helps.

[@stevekent3991]

The problem with cup competitions is that it’s difficult to calculate the odds to know what the value price is for a home win. You shouldn’t be using your football knowledge to work out probability and hence implied odds as our football knowledge is flawed. You need to use prematch stats but that’s straight forward for league fixtures but not straight forward for cup fixtures. My football knowledge told me that Bayern had no chance of getting a result against Man City. I would have backed Man City at 1.3 for a home win, 1.7 and 1.6 is huge value. It’s printing money value based upon my football knowledge. Although there is no such thing as a dead cert, it was as close as you are going to get for a high profile match. I am not surprised the price came in as punters see huge value to back. This is the problem with using football knowledge to ascertain value odds. Your football knowledge is different to everyone else’s football knowledge so you thought value odds for Man City winning were around 1.8 ish. I thought value odds would have been around 1.3. I haven’t lost any stakes betting/trading on Man City matches this season but I have lost stakes on Bayern Munich matches. Bayern very inconsistent, Man City consistent, easy home win. Real Madrid this season haven’t been as consistent as Man City, I have lost some stakes on Real Madrid fixtures this season so there is always a bit of doubt when they have let you down multiple times before. Chelsea, who knows what you are going to get with them, any doubt in punters mindsets causes uncertainty. Real Madrid home win was not a dead cert. Stick to league fixtures where you can calculate value odds based upon pre match stats rather than using your football knowledge. Alternatively just bet/trade goals in play, easiest and most straight forward way to grow your bank in my opinion.

[@sebrimifta3811]

yes but even if you win 5 times with those small odd one loss will take every thing and that's even if you win 5 times consistently which is highly risky, but thanks for you're effort I will consider it for my ACCA 👌

[@stevekent3991]

@@sebrimifta3811 I was making the point of the flaw of using one’s football knowledge to guess value odds. My football knowledge says Man City would have won that fixture 8 times out of 10, giving them a 80% probability of winning, implied odds of 1.25, add a bit for Betfair commission, 1.3 minimum value odds. You can bet at 1.3 all day long as long as Man City win that fixture 80% of the time. Odds of 1.7 and 1.6 offered huge value hence why punters brought the price down with heavy backing. If you can bet at 1.6 and 1.7 and win 80% of the time, there is huge profits to be made, it’s not surprising punters were backing Man City at those prices. Kie, with his football knowledge estimates value odds around 1.8 ish. He gives Man City approximately 55% chance of winning and expected the price to go up and didn’t understand why the price didn’t go up. That’s his opinion that Man City only had above evens chance of winning, the market with their pool of individual football knowledge thought Man City had a higher probability of winning hence why the price went down pre kick off. For cup competitions, it’s difficult to accurately calculate probability and implied odds but it’s straight forward with league matches which makes it far easier to spot value rather than trying to guess value from opinion (our individual football knowledge). BTW, it doesn’t matter what odds you bet or trade at as long as it’s value and you achieve the minimum required strike rate. If you bet at or above value, your bank grows long term.

[@sifutube9662]

​@@stevekent3991 dude how to find value bets??

[@agussetyawan4347]

Im not bet on ⚽ again I try chance 50/50 like over/under, odd/even, hdp I try play odd/even and play odd always then 60% lose on 10 match I try over under and play always over then its same 60% lose on 10 match Whatever you choose look like they know and tag you user id when you must win and when must loose. So system not allow any player win with their mechanism score. Look stupid but that what I think 🤔 Sorry be stupid 🙏

[@emoscar886]

Shows you've put in alot of hard work in trying to figure out what works... Look deeper and you'll see what many others aren't seeing, that's the profit zone.

[@sebrimifta3811]

you're nearly there but keep researching and try to consider every single details

[@MrHunk1989]

Kie, You only trade in Football at evening and Weekend right or do u trade other sports such as horse racing and Golf ?

[@zenzonesleepandrelaxationm8170]

I forgot to add 15 minutes before KO is best and get out about 1 min before, if you get a situation where you have a stake in that wont be matched either hedge for a loss or scale the stake before ko for 1 tick below buy point to 5 ticks (5 increments), i usually scale if the potential loss is manageable and cash out if the pot loss is more than i can handle. I also reduce the stake as the game nears KO, so 15 minutes ill go in at 10 or 20% at 10 minutes i reduce to 5-10% and within 5 minutes i reduce to 5%, the idea being to have as little as possible running into live if you dont get your scalp matched. cheers

[@temp911Luke]

I think you should focus more on things like WOM rather than what people may bet on :)

[@JP-Esq]

A couple of things here, a minor one being that you underestimated man city's performance level (and the markets perception of their performance level). Easy to get wrong when comparing across different leagues. Use an ELO rating to get a better starting grasp. However, the bigger problem is that to pre match trade you need to focus more on the order flow instead of an opinion of the event. For example, your opening lay at 1.67, the lay book % was about 99.3. Look to only open trades (when laying pre-off) when it's 99.8% or higher. Also, scaling in and out of positions can also make it easier to turn your book profitable. Pinnacles odds (especially if you can accurately estimate how to remove their margin) will give a really good "second opinion" over where the odds "should" be. Their odds do move though so you need to keep an eye on it.

[@robiroka]

what do you mean by removing pinnacles margin? how do we do that? :)

[@RedaKhlouf-dr1pb]

6:12 man city to qualify 1.5!!!

[@adamdigman3823]

The charts...Trend vs Uncertainty perhaps? Wonder what was on the telly that day in terms of news and so forth. Maybe a lot of city hype that day drove sentiment? Sometimes you have sound logic and that's great, but the market isn't always driven by logic.

[@lewiemit]

There are various keys to pre-match trading. You need to keep a close eye on Pinnacle odds. Their traders will often move their lines closer to their opening odds, particularly if there's been a big pre-match move. You could also scale out your position. Perhaps you should have scaled 30-50% of your stake out on Real Madrid first thing in the AM? This would have given you greater margin for error in the event of a price correction.

[@DusanOravectravelandearn]

maybe good idea pre game trading /backing & laying/ for draw result instead of trade favourites ,

[@germanjurado953]

Hi Kie

[@madhusudanraut8861]

Bro I am from india I have lost by placed back 1 rate Back rate 400£ in a match FCK VS heidenhrim how i would recover it Money doesn't matter to me recomend me one of best current soccer Tipper i would thankful 2 u.

[@DusanOravectravelandearn]

hi, what about to look values of lineups before kick off instead to look past forms?

[@alexmajoni]

i see your bank balance is growing, spill the beans on your formula

[@sambailey9949]

depositing more

[@garysibthorpe4056]

Wow your 2 bets looked spot on, I think you could think about this all day and come up with no reasons why that has happened

[@paccosondoors9921]

I love how you explain things sir.i want to contact you directly.. give me a link sir