The Problems with Russia's Gasoline Crisis Run Deeper Than It Seems

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Russia has instituted a six-month ban on gasoline exports. This seems like a bizarre tactic to use given that fuel sales are supposed to fund the war in Ukraine. Today, we delve into the Kremlin's logic. The story is partially about Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. It is also partially about Western sanctions. But the crux of it is the Russian home front, and the Kremlin's need to keep Russian citizens from getting frustrated with the war.
0:00 Russia's New Gas Export Ban
1:29 The Effect of Ukrainian Drone Strikes
6:51 The Effect of Economic Sanctions
8:53 Influencing the U.S. Elections?
12:03 Russia's Electoral Constraint
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Kremlin.ru:
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[@BooleanDisorder]

Hello from Sweden, fellow NATO members!

[@worldpeace8187]

Welcome Sweden 🇸🇪

[@timmommens901]

Hello Sweden 🇸🇪 Like those colors 😊

[@irBribe]

Welcome to the club glad to have you? Any Russians bother you let us know.

[@Elendrian]

I'm down the street and across an ocean, but it's good to have you in the neighborhood

[@RenegadeElite101]

Welcome to the team Sweden!!! We’re glad to have you!!!

[@artistny0000]

Also war uses up a lot of additional petroleum products.

[@Kevin-bi9nf]

more than ANYTHING else

[@harleyquinn8202]

Also because Russian economy is overheating and uses more energy

[@teosandev6116]

gotta prep for very special military op part 2

[@IDFCClan]

russia isnt even fully invested in the war yet wait till next year when the elections are all over and things go into full swing @@teosandev6116

[@adrianlang6550]

Although there a lot less Russian tanks, mobile artllery pueces and BMP’s to refuel!!!!! The damage to the coastal Black Sea refinery must have made a big dent in exports of refined products. Ditto the Lukoil reginery in Volgograd which only finished a major upgrade using a lot of German and American oil tech partners.

[@allisongretsinger322]

Your conclusion about the Kremlin's concern for public opinion reminds me of the famous Klemens von Metternich quote, "You can do many things with a bayonet, but you cannot sit on it "

[@eriks.9730]

😂

[@lloydgush]

Have you been to twitter, tumblr or devian art? Some people will take it as a challenge. Reality is weirder than mr. Slave.

[@concinnus]

@@lloydgushTrue. Some of my friends are fond of the saying "anything can be a dildo if you're brave enough".

[@nvelsen1975]

Wasn't it Yeltsin who said you can build a throne of bayonets, but can't sit on it for long?

[@MaxwellAerialPhotography]

Might you by any chance be a fellow historia civilas or kraut enjoyer?

[@staticgrass]

Oil fields require constant maintenance in parts, processes, technology and talent. It takes money to pay for all of this. Close one of these and production will decline. Close off all of them then production will start declining by 10% a year. Check out Russia's oil exports in their totality and you will see that as a whole Russia has been cut off from these resources.

[@user-gy2xk4ot8f]

In 2023, Russia produced 527 million tons of oil compared to 535 million tons in 2022. According to Deputy Prime Minister A. Novak, a slight decrease in Russian oil production in 2023 is due to the commitments made within OPEC+ to balance the market, and the country's production potential is much higher. This has nothing to do with sanctions at all. The profit from the sale of oil increased due to the higher price.

[@jameswyre6480]

Plus, many to most facilities are located in very harsh and/or remote regions and are unusually in need of maintenance and the lost Western expertise.

[@davidford3115]

@@user-gy2xk4ot8f Wishful thinking. OPEC+ failed to meet previous year's production quotas. They only announced a drop so as to more accurately reflect ACTUAL production numbers. There was little change in oil commodities delivered to the market, hence that had very little impact on the price beyond speculators acting like hypochondriacs.

[@u2beuser714]

​@@jameswyre6480 they lost western expertise that doesnt mean there are no substitutes that doesnt mean there are no russians knowing how to maintain them and havent learned.

[@user-gy2xk4ot8f]

@@davidford3115 The price of oil in 2023, just like in 2022, fluctuated in the range from 75 to 95 dollars /bbl. and this despite the fact that half of Europe was in recession. So, the impact of the OPEC deal on the oil price cannot be denied.

[@johntracy9398]

There was always gasoline shortages in the old Soviet Union. After the fall western oil companies entered and built new refineries using western catalytic cracking technology to produce more gasoline. They've pulled out. No western technicians or spare parts to maintain these operations.

[@u2beuser714]

Assuming that those western technologies couldnt be substituted with russian ones. Its not high end technology after all

[@kennethferland5579]

A loss of catalytic cracking would be consistent with refiners producing less light fraction hydrocarbons like gasoline. If we see an incressed prodction of heavy fractions then that would support this theory.

[@georgethompson913]

​@@u2beuser714it actually is, a lot of oil production is cutting edge.

[@johnridout6540]

@@u2beuser714 There are no Russian ones. Only a handful of Western companies make them and it is quite high end.

[@Zayackanibal]

do you guys seriously belive that country that can enrich uranium-235 or send people to space can't distill fucking oil?

[@p.d.stanhope7088]

Agreed. Most of the Petro Engineers (specializing on Sweet) working in Russia were foreign workers. Mainly from the UK, Germany, Netherlands and the U.S. They all left voluntarily after the invasion 2 years ago. The Soviet Union's education system collapsed in 1985 and the post Soviet governments of Yeltsin and Putin haven't modernized it since. The last generation of Russian engineers prior to the 85' collapse are now in their early to mid 60's if they haven't already left back in the 1990s. Huge problems indeed for Putin.

[@doodsrem]

So petroleum engineers are only found in Europe? I would like to know your sources as it is a very interesting read. Thank you

[@mikesmovingimages]

@@doodsrem Those who are lacking in basic knowledge and understanding of the industry should listen more, read more, and demand less. Petroleum engineers are not FOUND, they are MADE. In SCHOOLS. Most of those schools, and the best ones, are in the West. You're welcome. Now go read more.

[@ArtisZ]

Good rusobot rebuttal! Lovin' it. ​@@mikesmovingimages

[@doodsrem]

@@mikesmovingimages Mike I would love to read more if you can provide sources or prove your point. Otherwise, this is just a gust of hot air from a guy in central PA.

[@yelenazayakina1506]

🤣🤣🤣

[@eversor10]

Lines on Gas?

[@lombardo141]

🧐hmmmm

[@BVasquezp]

Gas on maps

[@davidford3115]

@@BVasquezp THAT is one map I want to see. Namely the oil and gas deposits under Donbas and Crimea which are at the heart of the Russian invasion.

[@lloydgush]

Lines on russian gas stations.

[@nunya___]

@@lloydgush Maps in line at Russian gas stations.

[@General12th]

Hi Dr. Spaniel! Another eggcellent video!

[@nvelsen1975]

Got to keep egging him on to produce more.

[@OdyTypeR]

In a media environment where everybody's an eggspert, he is the Egghead I trust. And the jokes keep getting more eggsceptional with every video. _Cracks_ me up everytime. Too far? Guess I shouldn't put all my puns in one basket 😢

[@matejbenko8268]

propaganda

[@General12th]

@@matejbenko8268agitprop

[@kentonian]

Ukraine have attack a weapons factory. The trouble is with a small long range drone it’s hard to do major damage to them. Whereas an oil refinery or steal works can cause a lot of extra damage from the materials at the sites combusting.

[@AL-lh2ht]

Yea weepn factories can pretty much be moved anywhere and its not as complicated as you would think to build guns, unguided bombs, simpler tanks, and bullets. But steal and refining oil is extremely specialized and difficult and cant just move them or swap it out.

[@Kay2kGer]

"maintainance" remember, before the war, the gas delivery from russia to germany was reduced because of "maintainance". hence the price for oil got higher. it was ordered to achieve certain things in germany: pressure to open nordstream 2, tighten the price to have more money for the war, reduce german gas reserve so germany gets more dependend in the next winter.

[@davidford3115]

But when your customer simply changes to LNG, such pressure tactics actually backfire. In response to the invasion of Ukraine and the fear of a deep freeze in the winter of 2022-2023, Germany looked elsewhere for its energy needs.

[@Nala15-Artist]

You might be mistaking natural gas and GASoline here.

[@Kay2kGer]

@@Nala15-Artist it was not about gas and gasoline but the fact that russis is banning their export for the reason of "maintainance"

[@Kay2kGer]

@@davidford3115 yes but before the war the excuse of russia was also the word "maintainance" so same with the situation of the ban now.

[@davidford3115]

@@Kay2kGer That may have been the claim, but the "customer" on the other end isn't buying it anymore. That changes the equation.

[@tullochgorum6323]

I have a neighbour here in the UK who is an expert in oil production and who has worked in the Siberian fields. He believes that the withdrawal of Russia's western production partners will lead to increasing production problems, as they don't have the internal skills and technology to maintain the fields and pipelines. So it's not only refining that's the issue - it's production and transportation too. They are restricting the export of domestic fuel - but revenue from crude exports has also collapsed by 50%, according to official Russian figures. This is likely a combination of the sanctions and increasing production issues.

[@timtrewyn453]

Puts a dent in Russia's belief that they are exempt from entropy.

[@spxram4793]

🤣

[@OmniAlthegreat]

++ clown

[@OmniAlthegreat]

if you believe this I have 300 acres of Florida prime swamp just for you

[@ptonpc]

@@spxram4793 Joined Jan 27, 2022 Hello vatnik! How are the potato rations?

[@chillxxx241]

Russia is hurting way worse than these videos can explain. They tried to ask China for loans this week, but were denied. Many of the soldiers in Ukraine haven’t been paid since December. They are hoping they die and don’t have to pay.

[@eliseleonard3477]

It may be that maintenance is taking so long because major changes have to be made to install equipment that doesn’t require sanctioned parts and servicing.

[@davidford3115]

That is probably the best explanation I have heard which fits the data points. And it is one that neither the Ukraine shills, nor the Russian Bots want to acknowledge.

[@gags730]

They have over 40 refineries. (US has about 135)

[@richardarriaga6271]

I'm sure they can get sanctioned parts. Won't be cheap, though. And oilfield expertise won't be cheap either.

[@torehaaland6921]

​@@gags730 44. And many of them are gigantic. All of them at an increasing risk of seeing some vital components break down.

[@matejbenko8268]

Russia is part of OPEC. They dropping production every year. They want oil prices to go higher. The summer season always needs more oil. That is why this export limitation will end on 1st September. Russia will keep low gas prices in the country, while other countries will pay more to get oil. This has nothing to do with the war. IT IS A DEAL BETWEEN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES IN OPEC

[@johnmgovern7111]

A year or so ago Peter Ziane told us many the Russian oil wells are in the Siberian Tundra which required US TECH people to operate the wells the Which freeze out of production and the western expertise left at the beginning of the war. Perhaps this is what is happening now.

[@Hunkeykung]

Correct *Zeihan btw

[@davideternal6291]

That idea has flaws. It assumes that there is a lack of customers and that the flow of oil can't be diverted.

[@Paerigos]

@@davideternal6291 yes but the maintanance issue still persist, you cant keep any technology running indefinitely. Here the issue is likely different- amount of Gasoline in Russian crude is generaly lower then in Brent. hence to get same amount of gasoline Russia would be accumulating lot of other shit.

[@matejbenko8268]

Russia is part of OPEC. They dropping production every year. They want oil prices to go higher. The summer season always needs more oil. That is why this export limitation will end on 1st September. Russia will keep low gas prices in the country, while other countries will pay more to get oil. This has nothing to do with the war. IT IS A DEAL BETWEEN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES IN OPEC

[@GojiMet86]

And just like that, Transnistria is now asking Russia for protection to help its economy against "pressure" from the Moldovan government. Boy, oh boy are these breakaways in for another type of economic surprise......

[@nvelsen1975]

The Russian-occupied part of Moldova has lost half of its entire population across 20 years, and most of those who remain are old. They're already done.

[@basila33]

you don't need to use quotes when talk about pressure on Transistria (not "Transnistria"). They are in real blockade and in danger of humanitarian catastrophe. Nothing funny here, dude.

[@basila33]

@@nvelsen1975 so let old people die, is that what you want to say?

[@nvelsen1975]

@@basila33 Statistics prove that old people seem to really be into that stuff yes. 😉

[@viktorgv7937]

​@@basila33Which blokade??? they cannot travel, trading, etc??? what a BS

[@andrewc662]

Venezuela is the example of how sanctions hit oil production. It didn't drop off in a day, it was a slow burn, but the house burned down eventually. If the Russians had the capability of extraction technology they would have sold it to Venezuela, but they didn't because they don't have it.

[@TheSiyasss]

Lol keep lying to yourself

[@andrewc662]

@asss Venezuela has the largest oil reserve in the world, but their production has fallen steadily over the years. They were once the richest country in all of Latin America, now they are one of the poorest. Russia is one of Venezuela's closest trading partners, so tell my why won't Russia help them extract oil?

[@richardarriaga6271]

​@@andrewc662Venezuela also has terrible corruption and mismanagement.

[@chainest7660]

​@@richardarriaga6271so does russia. The utilitiy failures recently points that out

[@Despoina_Nyx]

From someone of Venezuela the sanctions here were not targeted at that. People overblow what was sactions targeted at mainly individuals. The sactions are nowhere near the same. I can use paypal, I can buy stuff from the US I can use international services online without a VPN. My Russian friend does not. The Reason Venezuela lost it's industry was cronyism and corruption. Giving the industry away to friends that mismanaged it until they killed it. It was something that was seen happening even during the times with Chavez because this place was just another oligarchy. It's also why most of our food production was basically decimated, it has only recovered because it's a lot easier to do that compared to an industry that requires a lot of expert in the workforce. The Sanctions in Russia could work but only due to Russia's own mismanagement and bad logistic also if Ukraine attacks oil silos or other oil infraestructura.

[@gags730]

Russia has around 40 oil refineries from what I can gather from searching.

[@doughooper9918]

I hear they only have 8 export facilities.

[@Zegezer]

The thing is that most of the refineries convert oil into fuel oil and diesel. Which are used (almost entirely) in the military sphere. And the small number of refineries that process oil into gasoline (of various grades, but mostly 95) are either disabled due to drones, or simply not productive enough to cover enough of the needs of the population, for this reason there were great concerns in the agricultural sector. And yes, I forgot to say, the refineries that were originally designed to produce gasoline and have good productivity are foreign. For example, the recently damaged refinery was technologically extremely advanced, if not one of the most advanced in the world, it was built by Lukoil. And its repair (let's assume that sanctions in this area are working properly) is not possible in Russia.

[@QnA22]

Not sure if it's Euro 95.here in Mongolia we notice the Russian production drops. Generally 1st to go is 95, then Diesel and lastly 92. In Siberia and possibly all Eastern regions, most tank 92. It's about 40% cheaper. Engines receive a different setting in combustion.

[@Zegezer]

@@QnA22 I absolutely do not rule out that I could have made a mistake, thanks for correction

[@QnA22]

@@Zegezer It's not that i know for sure. It's just an observation really.

[@hmm7258]

Are you planning to make a video on transistria/ already made one?

[@jpablo700]

No. Transylvania. We need to know what Vlad the Impaler would do using game theory during this modern time.

[@nicholasgutierrez9940]

@@jpablo700 Vlad the chad ruled Wallachia

[@ptonpc]

@@jpablo700Vlad never met a stake he didn't want to shove up someone. 'Fun fact' the stakes were not sharpened as depicted, that was considered too merciful. Instead they were more rounded. So it hurts more and takes longer. There is the story about one of his servants gagging at the stench, Vlad had him impaled on a longer/taller stake so he was above the smell.

[@arturobianco848]

Hmmm don't think thats going to play a major factor in the war. Thats unlesss Russia can take odessa wich if they can we are already F...ed.

[@timtrewyn453]

One US refinery down for maintenance is usually cause for a retail price increase. It's a case to have two national refineries to moderate oil industry behavior and provide refining capacity for contingencies.

[@kenwhitfield219]

Speculation, though, is very different from physically punching someone in the gut! Price speculation is about guessing the impact of bad news. Reducing profit taking ability is a much more real consequence.

[@timtrewyn453]

@@kenwhitfield219 We are OK with regulating the profits of electric utilities. National refineries would not be outright regulation, they would be more like the TVA and BPA providing the national government with benchmark information on the industry. No doubt there would be some real hard ball in Congress about what national refineries could do. But sometimes there really are contingencies that the market just is not ready for, e.g. 1973 Arab oil embargo. Two unscheduled refinery outages could not only disrupt the national economy but also national security. Under normal conditions national refineries could simply be moderating federal costs of purchasing fuel or providing additional refined products to allies under stress. Look how Europe's low capacity for ammunition production is affecting Ukraine's defense.

[@gags730]

The United States had around 135 operable petroleum refineries. As far as building new ones in the last 20 years I think that is more of an issue. The last major U.S. oil refinery was built in 1977 in Louisiana. Refineries constructed since then really don't produce much and I believe they refine less than 50,000 barrels when they went online. The oil business is getting tough in the US because of the 'climate'... literally. The more restrictions we add here the more we pay and it still gets made abroad as the appetite for petroleum will not decrease anytime soon...

[@nazarm6215]

The drawback of JIT infrastructure vs AOT.

[@georgethompson913]

​@@gags730which I'd why nuclear is the future, the cleanest and greenest of our non renewables.

[@enemixius]

Yeah, I was thinking something similar. The export ban serves to stop the exporters from redirecting even more of the remaining production to exports. At the same time, it's a lot more politically favourable to say "we do this to protect our citizens from rising global prices" than to admit it has anything to do with war losses.

[@First-Last_name]

They have been selling raw untreated crude oil at near cost to produce. Not only does it hurt now, but it is destroying their capacity to process crude. Destroying much of their industry.

[@pflernak]

They havent been selling at cost. They have been selling at above the price cap of 60USD while extraction supposedly costs them 10 to 20USD per barrel.

[@matejbenko8268]

Lol, you know more about the CIA and the whole world :D Nobody knows the price of Russian oil. Because the whole world ignores the Western countries and Russia is the main figure in OPEC.

[@richdobbs6595]

Refineries always produce a suite of products. The amount of different products a refinery makes is dependent on composition of the crude oil, the operating units the refinery has (which can convert potential blending stocks for one product to blending stocks for another product), and finally the operating goals for the refinery. Now, the storage associated with a refinery is closely tied to the products. And damage to particular operating unit might mean that you can't make as much gasoline or diesel as they want. But in almost all cases it is wrong to say that a particular refinery produces gasoline or it does not. I guess that this is actually "all cases", but I'm open to someone providing a case of a refinery where they produce no gasoline or no diesel.

[@paulfelkner6749]

Yeah, from what I know a refinery that starts with crude oil produces a number of products, mostly gasoline, diesel, kerosene, propane and a boat load of other products. You can tweak the process to produce a little more or less of almost all of the products. Never heard of a gasoline refinery. Additionally, I would think that that Russia would have a shortage of diesel and kerosene and an an abundance of gasoline considering that the war efforts need very little gasoline.

[@richdobbs6595]

Truth in advertising - I worked as petroleum refinery engineer from 1980 to 1984 before going to grad school and getting my PhD in chemical engineering.

[@davidford3115]

An interesting example of this involves CITGO and the Venezuelan connection to the refineries owned by that company.

[@richdobbs6595]

@@davidford3115 Sorry, I don't understand your point. Can you elaborate on it?

[@gags730]

Good comment because a lot of people think that they just make one fuel or another. They don't know how many different products come out.

[@Jondiceful]

Other possible implications 1. State of repair- if the corruption that thwarted Russia's invasion of Ukraine extends to other industries like oil and gas production, such maintenance may be critically needee. 2. Manpower- between COVID, an aging population, and now the war, it is going to be increasingly difficult to find trained and able-bodied labor to maintain operations across many critical industries including oil and gas. Six months may sound like a long time for maintenance, but it's not a crazy amount of time to invest in training new workers. 3. Knock-on effects- with so much production going into the war, there is potential for shortages in various non-war components to arise. The extent of this particular issue would be difficult to quantify, but it is an inescapable consequence of such a war draining materiel and personnel and other forms of capital out of the economy. 4. Red Sea?- global shipping is being disrupted by the Houthis and this is going to complicate many supply routes. For a nation already forced to rely on imports from countries willing to risk sanctions, such disruptions will make supply more difficult than for other countries. How much is an open question. 4. New sanctions- the newest raft of sanctions targeted Russia's shadow fleet that was exporting vie creative sanctions-dodging methods. The effect on Russia's oil and gas exports will not be zero. Enough to warrant this move by Putin? Probably not. But Russia will have to find new strategies to bypass western sanctions, and this is one convenient way to buy time to do so without losing face.

[@tmike_tc]

Your additional analysis is wonderful, Sir. Like the recent Russian military aircraft losses this year, the trained, skilled, and experienced aircrews are all but irreplaceable, let alone manufacturing modern, new airframes and systems while actively engaged in invasion and taking into account the severe demands being placed on working-aged Russian men.

[@commonsense82]

We have a huge refinery in the city where I live. They shut down every year for about a month and a half for maintenance. I would then assume Russia hasn't been doing yearly maintenance so it will definately take half a year in you haven't done it in a few years. Now that they are losing some refineries from drones they are probably thinking we better do this now before they break down and have no gas.

[@jetserb]

yeah Russians dont know about maintenance 😂😂😂

[@matejbenko8268]

Russia is part of OPEC. They dropping production every year. They want oil prices to go higher. The summer season always needs more oil. That is why this export limitation will end on 1st September. Russia will keep low gas prices in the country, while other countries will pay more to get oil. This has nothing to do with the war. IT IS A DEAL BETWEEN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES IN OPEC

[@Elongated_Muskrat]

Its a shame for Ukraine but support is dependent on them damaging Russia's long-term capabilities economically and demographically. It will be interesting how it affects Russia in the long-term though. Its hard for Russia to stay relevant when they're repairing petro-state infrastructure and ramping up artillery production when your opponents and even China are investing in AI and drone warfare.

[@richardarriaga6271]

Far right parties in Hungary, US, Estonia, France seem to back Russia beyond any economic justification. It's about power and hate.

[@philippefutureboy7348]

16:11: Did you say “eggcellent”? 😆

[@peterwolf4474]

and eggs port ban ; )

[@philippefutureboy7348]

lol

[@ericmason8718]

Dr. Spaniel, I have to say, as a labor econmist, you do a wonderful job explaining labor markets! I got a great chuckle when you described Russia's labor policies as nuts. You could not be more right!

[@don-cw1yz]

So Russia is having a problem producing Gasoline and diesel fuels. Sounds like a refinery problem. Remember when Russia was worried about getting a natural gas pumping terminal that was being refurbished in Quebec Canada? Canada would not ship the rebuilt natural gas terminal until the US said okay due to sanctions against Russia. It was needed to pump natural gas into Europe. That tells you Russia does not have the in-house capabilities to service complex oil and gas equipment. Refineries require maintenance, there are thousands of valves in a refinery. If Russia can't produce those valves then they have a problem. Countries like the US and Canada produce those valves. Don't change the valves you risk fires at a refinery. So Russia being unable to ship finished petroleum products may be because they are having problems getting the tooling needed to maintain their refineries.

[@spxram4793]

Russia's pre-war export markets for diesel, gasoline, naphta and all the rest was mainly Europe and Turkey. Europe banned such imports a year ago. India and China demand to import crude. And Russia, Venezela, Iran are happy to deliver, but India imports now more from Iraq, as they do not want to pay in russian rubles as Moscow demands. There is really enough crude on the market, and Russia also cannot really escalate prices by a war - they are on war already. Moscow f*cked itself entirely.

[@D.N.A.23]

Russia dont accept rupis its to low for the ruble

[@dmitryletov8138]

You're delisional Russia exported around 10% gasoline of total production in the country

[@richardarriaga6271]

​@@D.N.A.23Rupees can still be traded internationally. It would be dumb to not take it if you could pay for oil production.

[@pflernak]

@@richardarriaga6271 Sure but such trades would likely demand their own discount. Besides China and India have their own refineries, they can add that value themselves and Russia is currently not in a position to be picky

[@afg-media]

Some type of refinery. One of the St Petersburg strikes hit and ignited the coal section. the facility is a combined facility. Yes it is oil as an export hub, but it also refines and the third use is as a power plant. The plant captures syn gases - using Coal gasification. These facilities in russia rend to combine and mix production and the one near St Petersburg was not just storage tanks for shipping. There is the blanket "an oil facility" in the mainstream news and then in-depth where pictures, from the explosion, matching with prior sat and/or specific zones are identified in a facility. One needs to dig a little deeper for that.

[@matejbenko8268]

so? in the US in the last 2-3 years, many gas and oil facilities had explosions and were destructed. Did you hear about any problems? Russia is part of OPEC. They dropping production every year. They want oil prices to go higher. The summer season always needs more oil. That is why this export limitation will end on 1st September. Russia will keep low gas prices in the country, while other countries will pay more to get oil. This has nothing to do with the war. IT IS A DEAL BETWEEN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES IN OPEC

[@Alexandragon1]

Thx for the video!

[@moozo3931]

These videos are insanely high effort, great work.

[@Gametheory101]

Thank you!

[@adrianlang6550]

Lots of this has been covered by others but i do really like the way William pulls things together. He does of course cover some fresh ground. Excellent listen.

[@kenwhitfield219]

Also, the western fears that supplying Ukraine with longer range missiles that can strike deeper into Russia is made mute by Ukraine’s ingenuity of adapt drone technology into long range strike weapons. Besides, attack drones are very very cheap when compared to precision strike weapons.

[@davidford3115]

Well, and the long-range weapons Ukraine has developed domestically have been used on targets in Russia demonstrating Ukraine's restraint and self-imposed limitations. In essence, they have already proven they can be trusted with those western weapons by demonstrating how they would be used by domestic weapons.

[@jackthorton10]

And thus the concern is mute

[@gags730]

@@davidford3115 Ukraine needs to focus on the war/front lines. Hitting a refinery here or there is not going to change anything in Russia nor will it improve their own issues. It seems they need every dollar to support the war so why bother hitting targets that are nothing more than PR headlines that have no effect on Russia .

[@geoffhaylock6848]

​@@gags730reducing refining capacity is more than a pr stunt.

[@arturobianco848]

Ah getting so sick of our leaders not just giving ukraine that capability with the restriction they can't use it on obvious civillian infrastructure. And oil refenery's aren't strict civillian infrastructure.

[@donalddalley7274]

The public's concern over inflation is one thing. Having the national wealth fund run out of money will cause a whole different world of hurt, bother for the government to pay for the war, and to the pensioners who will be cut off from their pension funds. Oh, boy!

[@frankdegroot3732]

Very cold winter in Russia Broken heating systems wasting fuel All adds up Supply and demand

[@richardtabor8686]

ty for the content! always love the humor and sober analysis.

[@ScottRawdin]

William thank you for this excellent presentation.

[@lupusdeum3894]

Well done, as always! 😊

[@dacoolist]

These videos are just getting better and better. Keep up the awesome work William!

[@tmike_tc]

Another display of the power of Political Will. Excellent job Mr. Spaniel.

[@garyklimitchek45]

Brilliant as usual!

[@harvesteasternedge]

Thanks !!

[@Miamcoline]

Excellent analysis. Very helpful, thank you!

[@headsup2433]

Lots of things to think about here, I like the way you submit all the info and leave it up to us. Well done , thankyou.

[@HothVeteran]

Alright but how does this effect Lebron’s Legacy?

[@redacted3610]

Increased private air travel costs for him

[@Gametheory101]

The slight fuel price increase will make living on the West Coast less attractive, and as a result he is more likely to finish his career back in Cleveland. True story.

[@HothVeteran]

@@Gametheory101 this makes sense! Hopefully this means Cleveland will draft Bronny as well! Darius Garland and Spida will help win the championship as well when Lebron comes back.

[@gags730]

I'm waiting for Greta to reply before I make any comments myself.

[@jdocean1]

LeBron has enough money to not have to worry about gas prices 😂.

[@willieshueh1404]

Excellent

[@chalupacabre1616]

Refinery maintenance usually occurs seasonally when products are reformulated

[@alexandrebelinge8996]

we need a new name for an "election" with only 1 candidate or know outcome.

[@NemesisDawn]

Russia's GDP rose +3.5% this year despite over 16,000 western sanctions. Most of India and Chinese oil is imported from Russia. Even Saudi Arabia is buying Russian oil. I'm not a Russian sympathizer, just a truth seeker and the facts don't back up the narrative. Russia is doing just fine and the Wests policies are just making Russia stronger.

[@Alobster1]

But if you don't support the narrative you are a bot or Putin himself.

[@stream2watch]

GDP rise due to military spending. This is not a difficult concept. COVID cheques do the samee and the price is inflation. This runs at 7% in Russia and the base rate is 16%. Three times higher than most of the west.

[@zacklewis342]

@@stream2watch The vast majority of Chinese oil comes from the Middle East. Saudia Arabia does not buy oil. Russia is doing anything but "fine". Sanctions take years to play out, but they are quite effective, just ask Cuba, North Korea, Iran, etc.

[@anthonyjames5966]

Great thanks

[@Ununpentium]

I enjoy your content so much. Huge Thanks! I am always amazed who you can post so regularly such in depth analyses with a great video as well. Keep it up! :)

[@bernkondret9981]

Russia does not have the domestic high skilled energy sector personnel to properly maintain their vast "oil" resources.

[@First-Last_name]

Actually a problem. Their capacity is crumbling.

[@thomasjones8588]

Thanks for this. It was very good.

[@yclept9]

Competitive advantage, not comparative advantage. Comparative advantage is why the economics department secretary walks papers to the dean's office even though the economics department chairman walks faster than the secretary.

[@jdam7331]

Brilliant analysis 🧐

[@SuperMagnum2011]

Excellent.

[@jackroutledge352]

Thanks for this. It's worth noting that this is a little out of date now. Ukraine has continued to focus on refineries in the weeks since, and Russia is looking at at least a 10% reduction in refinery capacity from the strikes alone. That's in addition to failures from lack of spare parts and expertise.

[@IanKjos]

For the record, although refineries are somewhat specialized to their ideal feed-stock and product mixture, they generally have at least *a bit* of flexibility designed in so you can turn some knobs and adapt to market conditions. The uncertainty around six minutes comes not only from a secrecy campaign but also from that flexibility.

[@neolithictransitrevolution427]

Naphtha (the light hydrocarbons distilled at the top of an oil refinery) = Natural Gas Liquids (the light hydro carbons heavier than Natural gas seperated at a Natural Gas purification plant) =Condensate (light hydrocarbons heavier than Natural gas seperated at well head) All three are basically the same mix of chemicals just from different places in the oil and gas infrastructure.

[@fraumahler5934]

Great analysis, as usual.

[@PaulStatz-xl3em]

Naptha is often used as a paint thinner and solvent for cleaning industrial equipment ect

[@pesokpesok]

great video - thank you!!!

[@BruceLee-xp5fc]

4:25 a newspaper whoa

[@Paul_Lenard_Ewing]

Another big Russian problem is about a 3rd of their public transportation of Buses and Trains are virtually permanently down because they need Western parts to repair them and new imports of Asian made trains and buses are very unreliable and break down frequently. Everyone may have a job but can they get to it and home??

[@richardarriaga6271]

If they are conscripted and sent to a meat wave, they don't need public transportation

[@Aesthetic_Dialectic]

This is probably the most deranged thing I've seen in a while. My dude, believe me, we're fine on public transportation over here in Russia. I live in a smaller city and I can get on any bus I want in 5-7 minutes, and get to anywhere in my city in 20-30 minutes. Around 70% of the busses are Russian-produced using locally sourced or Chinese parts and run on natural gas/electricity. The fare is around $0.30 and I can pay for it contactless, with my phone. You wish you could have that wherever you live, I'm sure.

[@robertstuckey6407]

Hey is your book a good way to start studying what makes effective peace? After that any other suggestions?

[@JohnSmith-ti2kp]

@robertstuckey6407--Effective peace starts by being so big and strong that the enemy is scared s---less to even thinking about an attack and making it so expensive that he can never catch up. Ie. U.S. vs. U.S.S.R. 1984-1989

[@robertstuckey6407]

@@JohnSmith-ti2kp im not sure its so simple. For starters you cant rely on always being the biggest game in town, and definitely not forever.

[@marcbrasse747]

Maintenance is nonsense. A full stop is economically devastating. Offset maintenance ( = taking one or very few refineries out at the time) can even be used as an excuse for price increases.

[@vaporisedair4919]

Oil refineries don’t produce just one product, normally all. There are units within a refinery that distillates the various fractions and then send it to other units that produce the final diesel gasoline etc.. Depending what was hit an impact on part of the production might be impacted or all.

[@future_me_6067]

Rolled steel from the steel plant could also have been used for storage tanks as well as military.

[@MattttG3]

Good job, pretty good job on this one Bill

[@MrMarcosema]

The bottom line is that they can't export refined products because of a number of reasons and it will not get better. This will cost them 10 billion in lost revenue for 6 months

[@luminyam6145]

That was a good video, thank you.

[@geezzzwdf]

oil refineries are built the same way because the refining. processes are the same ,, just look at satilite photos in those photos look for the crude cracker or boiler it would stand out being a 5 to 7 story huge waterheater-like kettel with pipes at regular stages to drae off the hydrocarbons as they get heated up and an flare off poll with flames coming out of it . 2 very easy things to spot

[@jonathanlanglois2742]

2:30 You kind of glossed over the fact that there are several different grades of oil and that some are more desirable than other. Depending on its composition, it will yield a different mix of finished products. Mixing several grades of oil might be required to get the finished products that you are looking for.

[@UninstallingWindows]

I heard from some russian economists that the reason for the ban is that the local population started to protest and got pissed off about high gasoline prices. The prices are high because oil companies find it more profitable to export the oil than sell it at a lower price to local population.

[@jayduke8554]

Awesome 😎

[@jager6863]

Refined product is more profitable than raw crude. The fact that they are banning exports means they are in trouble.

[@VladimirRUBY]

then why does the United States export oil?)))

[@dobi2236]

​@@VladimirRUBY there are different types of oil. The US refining industry is centered around "sour" crude oil, which is full of impurities like sulphur, and therefor is more expensive to refine. This allows the US to import it cheaply, then sell it at a higher rate because we have the industry already in place to produce it, while other places cant afford or dont want to refine it. We export "sweet" crude oil, which doesnt have those impurities, these are easier to refine but sell at a lower rate. This is also compounded by our infrastructure already being centered around "sour" crude oil, so its just easier for us to sell off the crude than build two entirely different refining markets

[@gregash7683]

If Russia has a "war time economy", and it does, every breathing body will be claimed as fully employed whether not not it performs productive work or not. With conscripts and regular soldiers on the battlefront, all regular jobs must be backfilled by inexperienced male novices while working women retain their traditional house wife/keeper roles. Your average 'Alexy' challenge reveals how low tech workers become vulnerable to forced job changes as industrial facilities and refineries close for extended maintenance (permanent hibernation).

[@arturobianco848]

As always a well thought out piece. I do need to check out others more frequent i'm starting to just believe your clipps without checking anymore. Not saying i always totaly agree with you just that you never have made a plausable clipp with the info i could confirm.

[@TheSubpremeState]

Petroleum takes longer to refine. My father was an investor in a company that struck oil in Belize on its first ever drill. The "sweet crude" was so clean they were able to put it straight into Diesel generators. Also when oil prices go up , its petrol/ Gas that goes up first because there is a couple of months lag between the turning of crude into gas and diesel. Diesel will be used in Ukraine mostly except for rocket fuel so the banning of gas means the russian economy will be effected but the tanks won't be sparing any fuel, yet.....

[@albundy7459]

Remember when they sanctioned Russian oil to stay under $60 a barrel? It’s currently at $70.

[@stream2watch]

That is not how the price cap works. Yes, some Urals is sold for more than 60, but if it does, it needs to be run through shadow tankers that can not be insured.

[@SuperMagnum2011]

Thank you William. Slava Ukraini 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇺🇦🇺🇦🤝

[@andrek4619]

And earlier, the Kremlin imposed a ban on gasoline exports, since domestic prices were very different from international ones and exports simply washed everything out of the domestic market, which led to an increase in domestic prices. The people were outraged, which forced the government to resort to non-market mechanisms. From year to year, Russia has seen an increase in the production of gasoline and diesel fuel, and the last 2 years are no exception.

[@richdobbs6595]

Fluctuations in America's gasoline prices have little to do with fundamentals. It's mainly driven by speculation, with a fraction of the speculation connected with speculation about US government policies, both domestic and internal. By the time any fundamental changes the equilibrium price, the market has reacted to it or over reacted to it and has in compensation over or under reacted to the initial move. Gasoline is the commodity that never seems to reach an equilibrium price, since there is constant churn in world and domestic affairs.

[@davidford3115]

Agreed. The price of oil and gasoline has been decoupled since the 1980s. I guarantee that big Oil has storage for refined gasoline so that they are insulated in both directions from the fluctuations in price. One only needs to look at CITGO and its connection to Venezuela to understand this.

[@gags730]

Finally ... Someone who understands things. 'Futures' Thank you for posting this.

[@kennethferland5579]

The problem with the Domestic pacification senario is that unless Russians significant increse gasoline consumption then Russia Gasoline refineries would rapidly fill available storage and face glut situations in which their is litterally no where to put the gasoline, this would potentially cause refinery and oilfield shutdowns which would then cause yet more loss of revenue. Theirfore I think the solution likely lies in lack of capacity. The ultimate test will be what happens to retail gasoline prices in Russia, if they decline sharply then we can conclude that satisfying domestic consumers is indeed the main motive and production was not the root cause.

[@jankuyper8353]

Always enjoy you pov

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

Bold of you to assume everyone in Russija has a gasoline car rather than a dizel one.

[@trueriver1950]

Did i blink and miss the lines on maps, or were there really none this time? In fairness we did have dots on maps

[@baobo67]

Excellent. Thank-you.

[@the_hate_inside1085]

Subsidizing energy, and fuel is something you learn on week one in dictator school. In many totalitarian states gas is ridiculously cheap.

[@true_perplexeus]

Naphtha is a mix of different fuels including gasoline.

[@Fireball4511]

Eggcellent video and explanation.

[@jacobmehring1659]

Eggsplanation

[@evilmurlock]

3:00 heh, the Czech word for Diesel is Nafta. Not confusing at all :)

[@-Teca-]

North America Free Trade Association

[@JohnVerdon-JohnVerdon]

It's not the printing of money - it's the scarcity of resources caused by the war - s scarcity that raises prices

[@macosx10.7lion4]

Fun fact: "nafta" means "oil" in Latvian.

[@jeremypearson6852]

I think the average US consumer is more worried about grocery prices than gas prices. Gas at around $3 a gallon is still manageable for most households. A British expat watching in Florida.

[@kentuckyfried9499]

Uh oh. The sanctions are starting to hit.

[@danielhale1]

Your book ad is too late! I already proactively read it!

[@EdT.-xt6yv]

4:30 exponential attacks

[@yamagata008]

Thank you for the analysis.