How Ukraine's Refinery Strikes Destabilize the Entire Russian Economy

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William Spaniel

William Spaniel

Күн бұрын

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@SawedOffClown
@SawedOffClown 9 ай бұрын
The reason for the consistent spike is that is when Econ 102 students are introduced to dutch disease and look it up before the midterms Your welcome
@jabloko992
@jabloko992 9 ай бұрын
*You're welcome
@mightywurlitzer
@mightywurlitzer 9 ай бұрын
Well done sir 👏
@paddington1670
@paddington1670 9 ай бұрын
youre* god damn college students
@kingace6186
@kingace6186 9 ай бұрын
It is a smart decision to use William's videos for studying.
@Lotusblue234
@Lotusblue234 9 ай бұрын
😳😂 Damn you're probably right tho! 💀
@dylandarnell3657
@dylandarnell3657 9 ай бұрын
"Russia can't sell oil, the money runs out, and the war ends." It's always more complicated than this, and you always do an excellent job of explaining how. Thanks!
@Felix28Blessed
@Felix28Blessed 9 ай бұрын
But they sell to china for cheap
@Omega0850
@Omega0850 9 ай бұрын
@@Felix28Blessed If they sell it for cheap, their profits are much lower, which has the same effect, just not as strong. (its also much more expensive to ship oil and gas to China rather than Europe)
@sylviamaresca8852
@sylviamaresca8852 9 ай бұрын
I so LOVE this channel. Complex issues reduced to understandable information without condensation. Love the humor, and oh my, the lines, I love the lines on the map.
@govinda102000
@govinda102000 9 ай бұрын
Yep. And this is how Ukraine will take down Putler. Economically. Only a matter of time. Putin is then deposed and then the invaders will retreat to Russia.
@concernedcitizen780
@concernedcitizen780 9 ай бұрын
Russia would be at war if they had no money.
@mrmoyd3072
@mrmoyd3072 9 ай бұрын
chatgpt: "Dutch Disease" often sees a spike in interest around March because that's when many economic reports and analyses are released, including those related to oil and gas industries, which are commonly associated with Dutch Disease.
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 9 ай бұрын
That would make sense!
@tacotown4598
@tacotown4598 9 ай бұрын
Chat GPT being smart is wild
@brewswillas6635
@brewswillas6635 9 ай бұрын
Chat GPT is still pretty dim. The reason there's an apparent spike in searches for "Dutch Disease" around March is actually because that's when symptoms of Dutch Elm disease in trees starts becoming noticeable. So, blame it on the arborists.
@ItchyTrigahFingah
@ItchyTrigahFingah 9 ай бұрын
It was dumb to use the dollar as a weapon of war in the first place! From the start we should have made it clear with force that the invasion was unacceptable! IMO
@MattBellzminion
@MattBellzminion 9 ай бұрын
@@Gametheory101 All of these explicably caused spikes would be dwarfed, however, if Taylor Swift or Beyonce were to drop a song with a lyric mentioning Dutch disease -- for ex., likening her overreliance on or obsession with a particular guy to her own personal "Dutch disease".
@sechran
@sechran 9 ай бұрын
"Dutch Disease" isn't imposing enough. It sounds like something you'd get from persistent bike strain. They should call it something like, “Spiraling the Nether” - give it a real flavor of doom.
@gideonmele1556
@gideonmele1556 9 ай бұрын
Dutch Doom Drain
@casnimot
@casnimot 9 ай бұрын
"Spiraling the Nether" - Depending on the industry. It could also go "Brown-Chicken Brown-Cow", if you know what I mean.
@JoeyP946
@JoeyP946 9 ай бұрын
as a dutch guy when I first heard Dutch disease I was thinking of an STD. I'm glad it's not
@k3v1n73
@k3v1n73 9 ай бұрын
how about neder-fucked?
@Dommifax
@Dommifax 9 ай бұрын
@@JoeyP946 maybe because of syphilis originally being called French disease?
@okn654
@okn654 9 ай бұрын
Danish version of having your cake and eating it too: You can't sell the fur before the bear has been shot
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 9 ай бұрын
That’s grizzly
@jeroenslaghout
@jeroenslaghout 9 ай бұрын
That's cool, we have exactly the same saying in the Netherlands. "je moet de huid niet verkopen, voordat de beer geschoten is."
@HaukeLaging
@HaukeLaging 9 ай бұрын
The Germans agree: "Man soll das Fell des Bären nicht verteilen, bevor er erlegt ist" Kind of funny, though, that the German version is more liberal than the Dutch one... ("should not" vs. "must not") 😆
@human4116
@human4116 9 ай бұрын
You can sell produce before its been harvested
@jonathangrenier104
@jonathangrenier104 9 ай бұрын
Same in french
@hazardousmaterial5492
@hazardousmaterial5492 9 ай бұрын
Dear mr. William Spaniel, Gazprom has recently announced a financial loss of 7 billion for the year 2023. Since this is for the period before ukraine started hitting russian oil industry on a regular basis, i'd like you to make a video about how this will affect russia in 2024
@karlrambo2987
@karlrambo2987 9 ай бұрын
The March bump on your Dutch disease video coincides with international political science and economics classes topics and paper preparation at universities. All students hope for a video to save them from (careful) reading of assignments. That’s my hypothesis, at least.
@stargazer-elite
@stargazer-elite 9 ай бұрын
Last I checked, the US never directly said to not target oil refineries it has stated multiple times essentially that “ whilst we don’t recommend this action, we won’t disapprove of it either”
@MrWhitmen1981
@MrWhitmen1981 7 ай бұрын
It’s election year, if the Democrats win then go ahead. 😂
@ReadableLetters
@ReadableLetters 9 ай бұрын
You did pretty good on the pronunciation of Groningen
@ronald3836
@ronald3836 9 ай бұрын
Agreed. But I was hoping he would try to pronounce Slochteren.
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 9 ай бұрын
Hard pass on Slochteren!
@larsrons7937
@larsrons7937 9 ай бұрын
@@Gametheory101 7:01 - The easter egg, your book inserted next to Elvira Nabiullina in the photo. Good joke. I checked Kriminalin's homepage, unfortunately she didn't have the book in the original photo. It would have been wonderful if she'd had. Thanks for all your videos, always informative and instructive. Cheers from Denmark
@C4Vendetta
@C4Vendetta 9 ай бұрын
​@@Gametheory101Slo-GGGGHHHGGHH-teh-ren, you can do it I believe in you
@christophorfaust2457
@christophorfaust2457 9 ай бұрын
Excellent analysis! Clear, to the point, and most rewarding, says, “we don’t know”, when we don’t know!
@ulvitron
@ulvitron 9 ай бұрын
I really appreciate the quick, but not rushed, video explaining the stratigic goals of Ukraines attack. Thank you
@isakgronkvist5871
@isakgronkvist5871 9 ай бұрын
IT HAS GONE 2 MINUTES SINCE RELLEASE YOU COULD NOT HAVE WATCHED THE ENTIRE VIDEO IN THAT TIME
@sleepybokchoy
@sleepybokchoy 9 ай бұрын
@@isakgronkvist5871🗿 unless he watched it at 5x speed, it’s called multitasking
@MarvinWestmaas
@MarvinWestmaas 9 ай бұрын
@@isakgronkvist5871 It also likes to mention something as if the aggressor orcs are the one's 'under attack' and it got 13 likes right away. So either disgusting orcs or an orcbot, all the same to me though just imagine me pointing and laughing at them... loudly 🤷‍♂
@ronp2644
@ronp2644 9 ай бұрын
​@@isakgronkvist5871lmao 😅
@Apollonos
@Apollonos 9 ай бұрын
@@isakgronkvist5871 You haven't heard of Evelyn Wood Speed Watching?
@lorenard993
@lorenard993 9 ай бұрын
March is the start of tourism season in Holland and people are worried about catching dutch diseases while over there so every march we see a spike of confused and mildly annoyed new viewers
@Robbiebert14
@Robbiebert14 9 ай бұрын
Hahaha really?? That's so funny! I was very curious but that makes so much sense! 😂
@UKnowIfUKnow
@UKnowIfUKnow 9 ай бұрын
Close but not quite. The surge is a result of college students getting back from spring break and trying desperately to figure out what that rash is. There's also a surge in searches on sex blindness and horse hair toxicity... whatever that's about!?!
@velisvideos6208
@velisvideos6208 9 ай бұрын
That's crotch disease.
@andrewharrison8436
@andrewharrison8436 9 ай бұрын
That's actually a testable hypothesis - do the number of downvotes surge as well?
@unduloid
@unduloid 9 ай бұрын
Dutch disease = starting to like Heineken.
@rkirby7183
@rkirby7183 9 ай бұрын
India had already stopped buying Russian oil, mostly, because of the threat of secondary sanctions, and because they could get oil almost as cheaply from much closer suppliers in the Persian Gulf (with no Red Sea problems). And NO, Russia can't repair much of anything not only because the parts come from the West, but because the people that built and maintained their petroleum industry were mostly from the West, and they have left and won't come back. And refineries are complicated things.
@damonedrington3453
@damonedrington3453 9 ай бұрын
Yea that’s what a lot of Russian supporters seem to think. They appear to be under the impression that you can just jury rig refineries to work if you don’t have the proper experience
@jannegrey
@jannegrey 9 ай бұрын
A lot of their experts indeed came from the west but not all of them. Not to mention that a lot depends on where exactly the drone hit. Refineries are somewhat easier to repair on average, because a lot of the area is made of stuff that while important to make refinery operational is not that difficult to repair (pipes and stuff). Plus if need be there are specialists in Kazakhstan and other countries that might provide some assistance with knowledge for the right price and they don't have to be on site even. But yes, if a component that requires a lot of expertise plus foreign parts is struck - then it will be difficult for Russia to repair it quickly.
@augustuslunasol10thapostle
@augustuslunasol10thapostle 9 ай бұрын
@@jannegrey im pretty sure it took 6 months for one of the refineries struck a long while ago to be back to functional not full capacity but functional and refining, meaning you could kill the russian energy industry faster than it can repairs refining who the fucks waiting for russian gas and oil when the middle east is right there
@Spanner249
@Spanner249 8 ай бұрын
India is always working in its own interest, but having a strong US counterweight to China is absolutely in their interest. India is traditionally a large Russian Arms purchaser, and often hasn’t been a fan of US relationships with Pakistan. Ultimately as Pakistan has moved closer to China and the Chinese Indian border disputes antagonize their relationship, India is navigating a very interesting version of Real Politick
@VangelVe
@VangelVe 8 ай бұрын
@@Spanner249 India is buying 1.4 million bpd from Russia and selling the distillates to the EU. I do not see how people can claim that India is siding with the EU or US. In fact, it seems to be moving away from the US as the State Department is meddling in its elections as it does in all elections.
@chas4life
@chas4life 9 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 9 ай бұрын
Wow, that was incredibly generous. Thank you!
@markuskristersson4663
@markuskristersson4663 9 ай бұрын
Thank you Spaniel for keeping us updated on current events regarding the unjustified war in Ukraine.
@BVH495
@BVH495 9 ай бұрын
as a dutch person, apology accepted
@dfsilversurfer
@dfsilversurfer 9 ай бұрын
🤣🤣 Thats funny . Its great your able to move on with an apology, i fear if it were called american disease they'd be asking for reparations . lol !
@LimyTheFox
@LimyTheFox 9 ай бұрын
The reason your videos are getting more views is because you’re awesome ❤
@SerenityMae11
@SerenityMae11 9 ай бұрын
How do his nuts taste? 😂
@tetrazene3876
@tetrazene3876 9 ай бұрын
A great pairing with this would be Perun's "Why wartime economies don't collapse (until they do)"
@angmori172
@angmori172 9 ай бұрын
Generally, no single factor is going to determine war. Sanctions might not be as effective as hoped for, but every little bit adds up. You know how it goes - slowly at first, then all at once, when shit collapses.
@pastForgetting
@pastForgetting 9 ай бұрын
Tipping points are like that.
@systemchris
@systemchris 9 ай бұрын
Everything happens slowly until it happens fast
@flipw3605
@flipw3605 9 ай бұрын
And those of us outside, or the regular Russian person, will not see the deterioration on the inside but only the final collapse. It was the same with the fall of the Soviet Union. It surprised the wider world but the rot had been growing sight unseen to us.
@TheSkyGuy77
@TheSkyGuy77 9 ай бұрын
It's always slow change until it goes down real fast
@jackthorton10
@jackthorton10 9 ай бұрын
Like a dam creeping with hidden cracks before the dam bursts
@mikaelcronholm
@mikaelcronholm 9 ай бұрын
The unit shown at 45 seconds looks like a CCR, Continuos Catalytic Reformer, or Platformer. It converts Naphtha in gas form to hydrogen and high octane molecules that are used for hydrogenation of the diesel and to boost the octane rating of naphtha to turn it into gasoline. (Yes, it's actually a little more complicated, but I'm not writing a book.) Striking that unit would not completely stop production in the plant, but it is a very valuable piece of kit.
@panan7777
@panan7777 9 ай бұрын
For YEARS. They also don't have the tech to produce quality gas, so they will start producing Ru low quality, which will burn out all new car engines. After this war, Ru will be a third world.
@phoenix211245
@phoenix211245 9 ай бұрын
There was unconfirmed talk of domestic fuels getting reduced in octane content and environmental metrics to something like E3 or lower. Given that cars and parts are significantly more expensive now, and the double whammy of a recent report that over 40% of the oil on the market is counterfeit, that could really hit the people hard in a couple of years. Just to look at the numbers here, my uncle's car is around 50% more expensive if he sold it right now than it was brand new when he bought it 5 years ago.... People simply won't be able to afford a new car if the engine on their old one gives out. Sure, will take a few years for that, but we are in the third year of the so-called "SVO" here, with no sign of it stopping.
@yurykomarinskiy9497
@yurykomarinskiy9497 9 ай бұрын
Appearently dutch disease is studied in universities/schools in march. So any Dutch disease search might have a spike. But especially you might be in recomended list for several teachers.
@Scaredycat55
@Scaredycat55 9 ай бұрын
Thank you for your unique perspective and the great work
@mage1over137
@mage1over137 9 ай бұрын
So March is also my birthday month, so it makes sense that videos I like would be advertised more that month than other months.
@ronald3836
@ronald3836 9 ай бұрын
I tend to spend my birthdays watching videos about Dutch Disease, too.
@wimdejong5399
@wimdejong5399 9 ай бұрын
A brilliant presentation. Thanks!
@djangogeek
@djangogeek 9 ай бұрын
The explanation you gave for "Dutch Disease" is very similar to that of the "Cantillon Effect." After a quick google search I found that indeed what we know of today as Dutch Disease was articulated in the special case of a gold mine in Cantillon's Essay on Economic theory. Interesting stuff!
@Molagmal
@Molagmal 9 ай бұрын
Dutch here and born in Groningen, I have to say that you did quite well on the pronunciation! It's a though one 😉
@chipsatterly4902
@chipsatterly4902 9 ай бұрын
Another thought provoking analysis!! Thank you!!
@a.e.rivera-weaver8175
@a.e.rivera-weaver8175 9 ай бұрын
Great episode, thanks for such detailed information!
@marlenfras5490
@marlenfras5490 9 ай бұрын
Good reporting. Thank you. Strong democracy.
@georgesbrassens5334
@georgesbrassens5334 7 ай бұрын
Thank you so much! Very clear explanations and easy to understand for foreigners who learned English at school!
@ВикторФирсов-е9ф
@ВикторФирсов-е9ф 9 ай бұрын
17:35 The pic is not from Apollo 11. The 11 didn’t have the rover.
@blobnate
@blobnate 9 ай бұрын
Great video! Thanks for sharing.
@gigabyte128
@gigabyte128 9 ай бұрын
ur views are spiking cause ur an amazing channel, u should have 10mill subs, not 600k, lines on maps, and at the same time u give us the news, with no bullshit, not too long, not too short
@Caylynmillard
@Caylynmillard 9 ай бұрын
Thanks for the vids! I watch every one twice.
@enricomigliorini9612
@enricomigliorini9612 9 ай бұрын
Me too, as I usually get to the end and feel like Prof. Spaniel explained everything very well, and I did not retain any of it.
@no_rubbernecking
@no_rubbernecking 9 ай бұрын
When Ruzzian petroleum industries are a trending topic, YT AI triggers a wave of referrals to that video on Dutch disease. The latest spike is driven by the sudden tsunami of Ukrainian hits on refineries. The previous one was around a crash in oil and gas prices, which is having a massive impact on the retail price of fuel in the U.S. in both directions (both during the crash and the rebound.) This in turn is becoming a central topic in the Biden v. trump saga.
@nas4apps
@nas4apps 9 ай бұрын
Not so ... Russian refined fuels exports was not that big. See were the locations are !! Not quite super-tanker spots. And gasoline is not typically piped over large distances. Regional sales were supported, like to neighboring countries (and those are many), but crude is the main Russian fuel export. Important though: no refineries: no gas at the station: angry people! No kerosine for planes, no diesel for trucks ... no logistics and all halts!! Now: it grinds! Good shots by Ukraine!! Putin just needs to snap his fingers and retreat from the military operation...
@no_rubbernecking
@no_rubbernecking 9 ай бұрын
@@nas4apps I was speaking of the recent spike in views of the old Dutch disease video. However, it is unquestionably the case that U.S. retail fuel price increase correlates with the refinery hits. The petroleum market is global. Every barrel of anything that Moscow has to keep for itself that would have otherwise been sold to e.g. India, is a barrel India has to buy from someone else, which would have otherwise diluted the global market price.
@nas4apps
@nas4apps 9 ай бұрын
@@no_rubbernecking 👍 ... markets are emotional. Those Russian quantities are unlike Houston or Rotterdam, much smaller...
@no_rubbernecking
@no_rubbernecking 9 ай бұрын
@@nas4apps True that's emotional, but another truth is that it's dominated by North American price speculators who own or control massive storage facilities which they deploy for use in controlling wholesale prices. And they also tend very strongly to a particular political party which happens to not hold the White House or the U.S. Senate at the moment....
@giovanni-ed7zq
@giovanni-ed7zq 9 ай бұрын
not really, its impacting russian diesel and gasoline prices inside russia but its creating a bottleneck of excess russian crude which they have to sell on the international markets to chinese and indians at a deeper discount than the 30 percent they are giving them currently. it doesnt affect crude supply, but rather diesel and gasoline supply inside russia. also affects russian jet fuel because its a by product of gasoline production. you see the russians dont have the western experts or parts anymore because they left and because of sanctions. so if russia turns off its drilling pumps, there is a chance they wont start up again and its expensive to turn pumps off. as well if you turn off your pumps too long and it turns into winter, the pipes freeze and crack and takes a long time to repair and its very expensive. the russians found this out in 1990 when they shut off their pumps and they froze and cracked all their pipes and it took 20 years to repair it all with exxon mobile experts. its why when russia lost 82 percent of their gas sales to eu by pipeline, they didnt stop pumping gas but they burned it. because if they turned off the gas pumps and the pipes froze and broke they cant fix it. so russians just burning their gas cuz they cant sell it to anyone else right out of the well head.
@scottsammons7747
@scottsammons7747 9 ай бұрын
A deep dive into the corollation to Alaska. And a projection for Alaska as a State, would be interesting. Starting out as a raw materials extraction colony, moved into territory status, discovery of gold led to population boom, moved into statehood, followed by petroleum industry finds and development leading to further population boom, growth in services housing etc. Now there is a demand to eliminate oil extraction in the 49th State while continuing to do so in other states. Alaskan economy is oil, timber, fishing, tourism, military defense bases, air transport of goods and to a lesser degree mining. There is virtually no manufacturing or value added processing.
@paperandmedals8316
@paperandmedals8316 9 ай бұрын
Gazprom just reported a $7B loss down from a $31B gain, so a total loss of $38B. How was that not mentioned? That would suggest huge numbers of customers gone. Oil r efineries have nothing to do with NG.
@V_for_Vovin
@V_for_Vovin 9 ай бұрын
It's almost like less natural gas is consumed when the winter months end
@oohhboy-funhouse
@oohhboy-funhouse 9 ай бұрын
NG is hard to transport because you need to convert it to LNG when transported by sea. Pipes like Nord Stream are a very cheap way to transport gas. iirc Russia has only one LNG terminal which been hit. Europe was the biggest customer. Russia has to burn off the surplus or risk being unable to restart. Not surprised they made a massive loss.
@paperandmedals8316
@paperandmedals8316 9 ай бұрын
@@oohhboy-funhouse no shit, hence the massive cash loss.
@ForageGardener
@ForageGardener 9 ай бұрын
​@@oohhboy-funhouseburning off NG doesn't cause a profit loss. Lost sales, or insufficient prices, or capital expenses do
@mishmohd
@mishmohd 9 ай бұрын
Q1 is for the streets
@Matt.Willoughby
@Matt.Willoughby 9 ай бұрын
The "Aftershock" graphical effect was beautiful. .
@Malignant88
@Malignant88 9 ай бұрын
I'm from Groningen, and for a non-native, you're absolutely fine.
@goldenfeather5416
@goldenfeather5416 9 ай бұрын
17:33 The duct tape fix of the fender happened on Apollo 17, not Apollo 11. It was a great video regardless
@jeffsiegwart
@jeffsiegwart 9 ай бұрын
Great News!
@richardtabor8686
@richardtabor8686 9 ай бұрын
Ty so much continued great content.
@36cmarti
@36cmarti 9 ай бұрын
The Duct Tape was used on the Apollo 17 mission to fix the Rover.
@ddegn
@ddegn 9 ай бұрын
Thank you. I didn't remember which Apollo mission it was but I knew it wasn't Apollo 11. In case anyone cares, the rover wasn't included until Apollo 15.
@spontaneousirony7043
@spontaneousirony7043 9 ай бұрын
If march is about the halfway point of spring semester for college students, they might be researching dutch disease for economics classes
@kleinweichkleinweich
@kleinweichkleinweich 9 ай бұрын
at 01:50 I spotted Gerassimov dressed up as a dutch wind mill
@UncleJoeLITE
@UncleJoeLITE 9 ай бұрын
We call this "Maladie Australienne" down here. Merci d'Australie à Mr Spaniel, great explanation.
@jackthatmonkey8994
@jackthatmonkey8994 9 ай бұрын
Groningen was pronounced rather well. Our pronounciations of "g" and "ng" (both are very different from eachother) are unique (and therefore difficult) in Western languages. Its funny. People laugh at German (the language of Germany) for being 'ugly', but in a day-to-day sense, Dutch is rougher than German. "How are you" in Dutch is "hoe gaat het me je" and in German its "Wie geht es dir"
@nuts4ships
@nuts4ships 9 ай бұрын
The "dancing red dot" at the beginning of the video is quite complementary to your 'lines on maps.' Enjoy your works and keep up the fine videos (and books).
@Asrtyulg
@Asrtyulg 9 ай бұрын
In march of this year several other content creators were talking about Ukraine's refinery campaign.
@imager8763
@imager8763 8 ай бұрын
Great video. I'd love to see something about how far the US economy could handle it's debt (possibly an impossible request).
@OutletVibes
@OutletVibes 9 ай бұрын
I come for the history/news and stay for the Find Waldo game
@raypotter9268
@raypotter9268 9 ай бұрын
Kudos on the book placement. I thought I recognized my book and wonder if she would give you review on Amazon.
@oohhboy-funhouse
@oohhboy-funhouse 9 ай бұрын
Washington's fears of higher gas prices has been misplaced. They never asked where the distillates were going, if they did, they wouldn't care. Few want the distillates because they can refine the oil themselves, get the value added, the fractions they want, export the surplus. Doubly so if you can get the raw material for cheap, lowering gas prices. However, secondary sanctions would increase the price, so the allies are taking the $70 win, letting the foreign refiners pocket the difference. We haven't factored in who is paying for transport and smuggling overhead. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia is paying, as China/India has taken Russia to the cleaners from the start.
@augustuslunasol10thapostle
@augustuslunasol10thapostle 9 ай бұрын
India has stopped buying russian gas and oil for a while now
@OldGuy2-m4c
@OldGuy2-m4c 7 ай бұрын
Americans will pay $6 a gollon for milk, or $15 for sodas... but elections are won or lost over $3 oil
@MrCcristof
@MrCcristof 8 ай бұрын
Excellent analysis ❤
@General12th
@General12th 9 ай бұрын
Hi Dr. Spaniel! You can't sit in two chairs, but you can read two books on the invasion in Ukraine.
@danielsteiner7088
@danielsteiner7088 8 ай бұрын
Lets also realize that not only are parts less available but the US companies are no longer prominent in the repair and operation of petrol industry
@yurilytviak9066
@yurilytviak9066 9 ай бұрын
Dang. We had our hundred some year old elm trees devastated. That was my first mental picture.
@RenegadeSound
@RenegadeSound 9 ай бұрын
I'm sure that occurred to Elm trees in UK too .
@Marc98338
@Marc98338 9 ай бұрын
2:30 I live there mate, appology accepted. ❤
@mauritsbol4806
@mauritsbol4806 9 ай бұрын
Algorithm favours videos a year or two years old, because it picks up on that (on the topic of war) videos are more relevant 1 year after publication that 6 months. Could make sense. Seasons are relevant for (some) videos, enough that an algorithm just starts recommending and seeing if a video is relevant one year on
@luminyam6145
@luminyam6145 7 ай бұрын
That was great, thank you.
@beautifulsmall
@beautifulsmall 9 ай бұрын
Well done Cameron, standing forward with unrestricted use of arms, how many weeks will we wait for the rest of Europe and the US to stand alongside.
@lehazyo
@lehazyo 9 ай бұрын
Thanks for the video! I am from Russia and I am not familiar with the phrase about fish from 9:39. The closest we have is 'without work you won't catch fish from the pond', rhymed in the original (без труда не выловишь и рыбку из пруда).
@ursusludens7174
@ursusludens7174 9 ай бұрын
Good video
@dejanbusse805
@dejanbusse805 9 ай бұрын
Theory for Views: The Topic of Dutch Disease is part of a curriculum for Economics/related topics of a given country. So it is being taught at the same time of the year to the current grade. The Active searching for the Topic also could incentivise the Algorithm to show it to other people, resulting in the large spike in views.
@McKushMaster
@McKushMaster 9 ай бұрын
Oh the viewer increase is because I passed out with your video on loop
@Pratt-Hancock
@Pratt-Hancock 7 ай бұрын
Yea, meanwhile in Europe, food and fuel prices continue to spiral out of control.
@Radi0he4d1
@Radi0he4d1 9 ай бұрын
In Russian, the term for natural resource dependency is "Oil Needle", as in needle of a smack syringe
@Ragatokk
@Ragatokk 9 ай бұрын
A strong currency does not hurt manufacturing, for when you can import cheap resources, you have a competitive manufacturing sector. It does however hurt resource extraction. If people import too much made goods you slap on some tariffs.
@WinkelmanSM-3
@WinkelmanSM-3 9 ай бұрын
7:01 your book!
@theeatherlash69
@theeatherlash69 8 ай бұрын
This surprised me!
@pangrowlin3599
@pangrowlin3599 9 ай бұрын
Could you do something on the strikes on Ukraines energy grid, especially the economic impact e.g. Ukraines tax revenues increased welfare spending and obviously the effect it will have on people in winter
@michaelgideon8944
@michaelgideon8944 9 ай бұрын
I read a story about how the Koreans have started cracking down on Russian sourced Naptha. Refined products are now stranded off the coast of Oman. It's unclear if this Naptha is from Russian refineries or from third parties using Russian crude for feed stock. There seems to be a ramp up in pressure on distillates even if the drone attacks are frowned upon. Confusing...
@andrewharrison8436
@andrewharrison8436 9 ай бұрын
Cracking down on Naptha - that's a terrible joke - you get an upvote from me.
@michaelgideon8944
@michaelgideon8944 9 ай бұрын
@@andrewharrison8436 Are you a petroleum engineer to get that one?
@jeffevarts8757
@jeffevarts8757 9 ай бұрын
Re: viewership spikes. Could be a teacher/lecturer/professor somewhere makes a point of listing your video in the spring quarter when they cover this topic, and it's popular enough with the students to get a new viewership cascade from that. Just a thought
@GOPGonzo
@GOPGonzo 9 ай бұрын
War is politics by other means. Politics is economics by other means. Lines on charts will rule!
@jamesgough1887
@jamesgough1887 9 ай бұрын
Excellent video.
@ansoncall6497
@ansoncall6497 9 ай бұрын
my closed captioning covered the book! Great analysis as always.
@jjjones4982
@jjjones4982 9 ай бұрын
In the spring (Mar) people start to notice their Dutch elm trees have fewer branches & weak leaves They look up Dutch Elm Disease or maybe just Dutch Disease.
@cipriancristea2122
@cipriancristea2122 9 ай бұрын
I'm a simple man I see a william video I watch
@RonJohn63
@RonJohn63 9 ай бұрын
12:55 lol that was my exact first thought. 14:08 Do they still teach that in university Macro Econ?
@neoieo5832
@neoieo5832 9 ай бұрын
I just realized that this is a PowerPoint slide.
@JohnVerdon-JohnVerdon
@JohnVerdon-JohnVerdon 8 ай бұрын
Do some research on Fiat Money - Modern Monetary Theory
@burprobrox9134
@burprobrox9134 9 ай бұрын
My theory for the viewership anomaly is that there is some professor or even a curriculum that covers Dutch Disease
@crush3095
@crush3095 9 ай бұрын
5:51 100% you only used hockey as an analogy so you could use this image haha
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 9 ай бұрын
Flip-flopped, actually. Ad-libbed the script change when I realized what was in front of me.
@stargazer-elite
@stargazer-elite 9 ай бұрын
No, he used as an analogy to placate the Canadians I heard many times that it’s getting close to the end of hockey season. We just gotta hold them off otherwise they may stop saying sorry if you know what I mean
@karsten27027
@karsten27027 9 ай бұрын
I have just found you. Very good. Need to look up some of your older posts.
@PeanutsDadForever
@PeanutsDadForever 9 ай бұрын
Thanks for your great videos. 🇦🇺👴🏻
@aes0p895
@aes0p895 9 ай бұрын
my best guess is that people are planning to tour EU in Spring, and it's a second-hand effect of paranoid travelers. thx for the video.
@annet7524
@annet7524 8 ай бұрын
Very interesting!
@joeker1013
@joeker1013 9 ай бұрын
As for the manufacturing and service sectors, you could mention the population drain. Not just people leaving but the people being fielded and killed. Fewer workers pay goes up, inflation, fewer workers pay goes up. I am also wondering about the effect of flooding Russia with counterfeit rubbles, it should be easy enough to get them in through Belarus.
@thatrandomguyontheinternet2477
@thatrandomguyontheinternet2477 9 ай бұрын
As a Belgian, that Gronigen made me fysically recoil. Also good video
@octopusguy5648
@octopusguy5648 9 ай бұрын
Got bless the AFU!
@debbiemilka2251
@debbiemilka2251 9 ай бұрын
OMGosh ! Elvira Nabiullina has a copy of how Ukraine has survived the Russian attack ! I hope your book hasn't given them new methods of prosecuting this war to their advantage. That is very serious news William.
@equolizer
@equolizer 9 ай бұрын
Huh, as a German I've never heard the saying about washing fur without getting wet, but after some googling I found that it does exist, so I can't fault you for that lol
@lazaraza
@lazaraza 9 ай бұрын
One interesting question, what happens with all the labour that becomes idle due to shrinking labour market? The obvious is they get angry, but perhaps less obvious is there will always be the infantry option. And I mean ALWAYS==as the war lasts. So here is the dilemma, the more Ukraine degrades the russian economy, the easier to the recruiters... I like the Easter reference, thanks!
@chrissmith2114
@chrissmith2114 9 ай бұрын
Dutch Disease sounds like fungal crutch rot due to too much time on a bicycle saddle.
@Blake-nz5dr
@Blake-nz5dr 8 ай бұрын
William spaniel how are you doing ? Keep up the great content.
@sleepybokchoy
@sleepybokchoy 9 ай бұрын
again, I’m a simple man. More lines on maps means more upvotes from me.
@WmJared
@WmJared 9 ай бұрын
Sir I straight squawked at the book reveal
@kevinjohnson8220
@kevinjohnson8220 9 ай бұрын
Apollo 11 didn't have a lunar Rover. If I remember correctly the first Rover was on either the Apollo 14 or 15 missions
@MrJdsenior
@MrJdsenior 9 ай бұрын
I think Ukraine's attacks on the fuel infrastructure are justified and correct. And it won't likely end the war, but it damn sure makes it more difficult for Russia to fight it, especially politically. For me the Easter egg was Pootler in the Hockey suit, because I know what happened shortly after that, when he ate red carpet. Not sure if that was the one you were talking about, though...I will see when I get to the end of the vid. Har, har, the Rover fender fix/rocket science, pretty sure this is it. Not much of a stretch for a retired aerospace engineer. It is actually missile tape, though. Kind of just the duct tape of champions. In my day, it was an olive green. It was really impressive stuff, actually. In today's consumer comparison, think Gorilla tape, on steroids. Better, stronger material, intensely strong adhesive. That tape there looks as if it may have been foil backed, another form of it. Damn, got it wrong both times, I should have been thinking from your aspect, not mine. :-) Oh, that troublesome bias! That's one of those, "You've seen that about a thousand times now, John, do you think you might ever incorporate it? I can be a lot dense.
@zvilender247
@zvilender247 9 ай бұрын
By Western standards, Russia has already collapsed. By Russian standards, it is just another day at the office. By objective standards, let it be known that the Russians will not hesitate to cook their pets in order to survive, while the common westerner will most likely panic if they can't find their favorite pastry in the shops one morning. Never judge your opponent by your own standards.
@ButcherOfBeek
@ButcherOfBeek 9 ай бұрын
Could you also draw some line on maps in the rap war between Kendrick Lamar and Drake?
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 9 ай бұрын
Excuse me sir, but those would be "Lines on Raps"
@benholroyd5221
@benholroyd5221 9 ай бұрын
@@Gametheory101 Not "Rhymes on maps"?
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 9 ай бұрын
Best to make a poll and leave it up to viewers to decide 😂
@CraigTheScotsman
@CraigTheScotsman 9 ай бұрын
Think the shooting outside Drake’s palatial Toronto estate is involved?
@monsoonmadness3743
@monsoonmadness3743 9 ай бұрын
Yes ​@@CraigTheScotsman
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