The Rarest Thing to Ever Happen in Phasmophobia (0.007% Chance)

Welcome back to Phasmophobia! In this video we bring back your absolute favorite challenge: Ghost Gambling! And this was the most incredible run yet. I still cannot believe what happened in this video. You are in for a TREAT! ENJOY!
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NOTE: This video was recorded on Phasmophobia update v0.7

[@Kev1nTheKev1n]

the chances of that happening is so statistically low that i’d have a better chance guessing the same random ghost twice and getting it right both times

[@therobotofknight6525]

SPOILERSSSSS

[@poisonbcm5275]

@@therobotofknight6525 it's not even a spoiler

[@sheudoww]

The chances of you getting some btches is so low that you'd have a better chance guessing the same random ghost twice and getting it right both times

[@Jaddwhisp]

I’ve done that too many times

[@souland3566]

@@sheudoww projecting

[@nitram.9621]

8:44 if people wonder why insym knew it was an oni, it is because an oni is more visible during a hunt than any other ghost (It doesn't flash invisible as fast as other ghosts)

[@ponglenis9273]

Yeah, I am using the phasmo wiki a lot during insyms videos, bless you for sharing your knowledge

[@vcool122]

what about the yokai?

[@superdreamsgames4587]

@@vcool122 ghost ignored him during the hunt even with his flashlight on, because yokais cannot hear or see electronic equipment from far away as any other ghost

[@sj_milk_]

Youve never had that? 😳 is that rare?! I've had multiple times , FIRST time it happened was Prison it was bloody perfect 🤣

[@collinkaufman2316]

How does he have this knowlidge

[@Karismir]

I'm expecting something crazy like he spins banshee, walks in with the paramic and it immediately screams

[@Kev1nTheKev1n]

the wheel spun demon, then the ghost was demon, the next wheel spin was ALSO demon and the next game was another demon too fair good reason to why its a 0.007% of occurring so yeah

[@Karismir]

@@Kev1nTheKev1n the stars really aligned on that Jesus

[@PubicGore]

I haven't seen the video yet, but judging by the probability on screen, it's fairly obvious that he's going to get the same ghost (or the same spin) three times in a row. However, I don't think getting the same spin thrice consecutively would warrant as much of a reaction as is present in the thumbnail, so the only conclusion is that he gets the same ghost three times in a row. 100/24^3 is approximately 0.007, the number present in the thumbnail.

[@aduritecam]

That actually happened to me a couple weeks ago! I walked into Ridgeview doing no evidence, I took a para mic, opened the door, walked in and it just screamed at me.

[@livedandletdie]

@@PubicGore And he didn't get them consecutively or even 3 times. Only 2 times, which is 0.17% and then another such instant of the same which in this case was an independent roll. And not what the wheel spun. So while I agree that 3/4 games with the same ghost is also unlikely, it's a lot higher than 3 ghosts in a row. It's 0.027%

[@ArcticGorilla47]

41:40 - 42:13 I do not skim over important parts, because Ghost Gambling is actually really fun to watch! The chat losing it in the feed is always hilarious to watch no matter the situation.

[@daminmaley1813]

MY COINS

[@morwe_]

@@daminmaley1813rip

[@KaihanDTuna]

Insym : what's the worst thing could happen? *pull tarrot card *Death card Insym : ah F*ck *Ghost was behind insym Insym : AH F*CK!

[@michalwamp]

11:36 for searchers :)

[@Atlessa]

Could have been worse though: Hanged Man

[@morwe_]

@@michalwampthank u man

[@xshock__]

@@michalwamp lmfaooo legend

[@EpicPico0625]

The biggest Jinx in history is "what's the worst thing that could happen?"

[@NagaFTW]

The fact that one person said "Safest all in ever" makes the double Demon moment so much greater than it already is

[@luke-hq3pr]

Spoiler

[@NagaFTW]

@@luke-hq3pr what u doin in the comments before finishing the vid?

[@luke-hq3pr]

Ur mom. 😃 OOOOOoOOoOOooOoOHhhhHhHh GUYS I GOT HIMMMM SSISKAPAJE OHOOHOHOH

[@Casta2]

Yeah I dont understand those people calling for spoilers. The comment section is literally a place to react to the video so of course the reactions will include part of the video that it is reacting to.

[@cryabovtit]

@@Casta2you realize youtube shows top comments right? so theyre not avoidable? 🤡

[@PineyJustice]

Yesterday I got hunted and killed from full sanity on regular professional 8 seconds after unlocking the door. Ghost was an Onryo Map was sunny hills restricted Ghost room appears to have been the hallway just inside the set of doors off the lobby towards chapel. Walked in door, running towards basement stairs to hit the breaker, the second the lobby doors opened my flashlight blinked once and ghost was right on top of me, I assume the ghost was blowing out candles in the chapel.

[@Icedonot]

@@thegamerboytgb4350onryo’s have a chance to hunt after blowing out 3 candles, regardless of sanity

[@adore.amelie]

do the candles start on in the chapel? because of your recount i’m assuming they do? also the way you worded that made it sound really funny loll

[@PineyJustice]

@@adore.amelie Yes, Yes they do. And apparently they count. 8 seconds from opening the door to dead, and there was absolutely no possible way to react or survive. And that was before the refresh when dying cost you about 2000$ which really hurts.

[@adore.amelie]

@@PineyJustice Ouch-

[@Galaxywolf666]

A few days ago I got an emf 5 and got killed because it spawned on top of me my torch hadn't flickered because it hadn't hunted for more that 1 second I was seriously unlucky for that

[@user-vz4nk1kv9j]

My psychologist: where did you start gambling? -Well, it's a complex question

[@PoltieBoo]

For me it was those one basket draws where you put a number of tickets in the box for which basket you want and if you win you get the box and i won twice so thats my start of my addiction 😔

[@soonmeekim930]

With new years coming up, it could be fun to see Insyms top “most startling moments”, “most funny moments”, “most fun moments with CJ and Psycho”, etc.

[@av-sp1wo]

Has anyone noticed that everytime Insym yells "im gonna die im gonna die" he almost never dies 😂

[@rafaj3101]

Yea lol

[@martinmadsen8957]

Hello

[@martinmadsen8957]

He yells nooo

[@lonewolfheart1697]

Always makes me smile when Insym drops a new video! Merry Christmas everyone!

[@mrbread8830]

You too, merry Christmas

[@bibisgood4620]

loving the always consistent uploads that you are giving, make sure not to burn yourself out though. it is important to take breaks everyonce in a while and truly focus on yourself!

[@EponaTrekka]

I feel like panic running through the house screaming "Nooooo! What are yoooou?!" is something every phasmo player can relate too, new or old XD

[@linzielizebet]

“so how did your gambling addiction start “ “Well it’s a long story but it started in a place named Tanglewood with some ghost and a man in a awesome rainbow sweater” 😂😂 Always enjoy these gambling streams though not sure my points do 😒😂 Thank you for the upload. Take care ❤

[@TWGuardian]

I'm seeing a misconception in the comments so on Insym's behalf I'd like to try to clarify the mathematics and why he's correct on the chance of 0.007%. A number that appears in comments below my own: 3.01408179*10^-6, or 0.0000301%. This is not wrong, but it's also not what is being calculated here. Half of the importance in calculating probabilities is to be very clear in what _exactly_ the situation is. This incorrect value is an approximation of (1/24)^4. Insym's value is an approximation of (1/24)^3. The difference is in the first wheel spin, and the error made in various other comments is that we don't actually care about the result of that first spin. The first spin gave a demon, but that only became significant when subsequent rolls also resulted in a demon. To put it another way: before that first wheel spin, we didn't know we ought to be looking for a demon. A probability of (1/24)^4 is correct if the question is 'what are the odds of the wheel and the game both selecting 'demon' twice in a row', but although that is the case here, it's not accurate. And that's because it isn't really important that this stunning coincidence happened with a demon per se. The stunning coincidence is in the fact that the wheel and the game aligned twice and on the same ghost. There is no added significance to the fact that we got a demon specifically four times in a row. Insym's value is correct because we don't care about the first wheel spin. Because before that wheel spin, we aren't looking for any ghost in particular. So we aren't interested in what that first wheel spin gives us. What we are interested in is the odds of the game agreeing with the wheel (1/24), the odds of the wheel then picking the same ghost _again_ (1/24) and the odds of the game picking the same ghost again as well (1/24). Multiplying these THREE probabilities gives a probability of 7.233... times 10^-5. We multiply by 100 to get percentages, and we are left with 0.007233...% which Insym rounded to 0.007%, which is valid. To put it another way: the selection of the ghost can be likened to 24-sided dice. The 'incorrect' number is the probability of 'what is the probability of getting the value '18' four times in a row'. What Insym calculated is the correct answer to the actual question, which is 'what is the probability of getting any number four times in a row'. In this case we don't care about the first roll of the dice, because we're not looking for any value in particular. What we are instead looking for is the probability of the three subsequent rolls agreeing with the first roll, which is (1/24)^3. The upshot: mathsym is on point.

[@spectreC2]

Chill the fuck out bro

[@TWGuardian]

@@spectreC2 You just had to be condescending for no reason, huh? 😐

[@hermansfood]

But isn’t it still a 1/24 chance to get the first demon?

[@TWGuardian]

@@hermansfood correct, but it's only after the first spin that we start looking for that specific result. It doesn't really matter that it's the demon per de, the thing that is so amazing is that Insym got the same result four times in a row. The first roll gives result X, and the next three rolls each have a 1 in 24 chance of also giving result X. To put it yet another way: the probability of rolling four demons is (1/24)⁴, but remember: that probability also holds for four revenants, four spirits, etc. Given that there are (at that time) 24 ghosts in the game, if we write out all (24)⁴ unique sequences of four ghosts, there are going to be 24 sequences containing only one ghost type, and each of these has a (1/24)⁴ probability of occurring. So the probability of having the same ghost four times in a row is 24×(1/24)⁴ = (1/24)³

[@hermansfood]

@@TWGuardian oh

[@Aztrict]

*picks up the tarot cards* “what’s the worst that can happen?” *pulls the dead card* *AUDIBLE TERROR*

[@Andicus]

Insym: It's all demons? Game: Always has been.

[@graystripe187]

👨‍🚀🔫👨‍🚀

[@DAVIDSONson315]

Hey Insym I think I've got a challenge which could be interesting to use in your future streams. It's called the "Drop & Leave" Challenge The requirements are: - Professional difficulty. - All items put into the truck. - Diaplayed speedrun timer for chat. How to play the "Drop & Leave" Challenge: - You're only allowed to pick up an item for 1 time. (Two EMF's -> each can be picked up for one time) - If you drop an item you are not allowed to pick it up again. - Placed items also count as dropped. - A EMF reader is only allowed to be used for 1 minute (timer for that one EMF starts as soon as you enter the house (again)). Afterwards it has to be dropped. Chat can tell you when the timer has run out. So interaction with the community should be there. Why that challenge seems like a good one: - You have to use all items in the truck. - You will encounter many situations because of your limited inventory where you want to drop something to pick something else up. So there's always the thought lingering in your mind that you have to sacrafice an item. For example do you drop the camera and lose the 3 pics you have left to be able to pick up a smudge or a lighter. - You can adjust the difficulty of the challenge by... ...only adding one of each item into the truck. ... shortening the EMF timer. ... applying the 1 minute rule to all electronic devices. (timer of all electronic devices in your inventory starts as soon as you step into the house (again).) ...use of different difficulties.

[@Cyber_Dystopian_Duck]

Yes. Just yes. I wanna see this now.

[@deyo286]

But if the ghost changes rooms the challenge wil become impossible

[@likesc00b59]

@@deyo286 but you could just not pick up the duplicate of that item in case?

[@DAVIDSONson315]

@@deyo286 Would you please explain how a ghost room change makes this impossible? I tested the challenge for 4 hours as a newby to Phasmo (with a 2 minute EMF timer) and ghost room changes actually made a missions even better. I also took situations into consideration where there were no items left and in those moments I could always rely on how I would figure out the ghost in a 0 evidence run.

[@deyo286]

@@likesc00b59 ok take the emf reader for example, if it changes room more than twice the run is over.

[@riaheals7372]

THAT 2 DEMONS IN A ROW GAVE ME SO MUCH GOOSEBUMPS I SWEAR

[@BraghDaMan]

21:40 That shit happened to me and got me killed on Willow. The ghost broke the music box - played at the front door to the house - from the basement, suddenly appeared in the living room with me, and caught me without a place to go. The ghost never appeared until I was dead. It wasn't due to sanity either because I'd just walked into the place.

[@Dreamingshrimp]

i started watching your videos yesterday not knowing anything about phasmophobia and now i really enjoy watching your videos. also merry christmas

[@h2oQueen]

What an amazing moment, back to back ghost type! It was the best experience witnessing it live and experiencing it together with everyone! 🎉😄

[@Grilled-Cheese-Obama-Sandwich.]

"its the worst thing that can happen" death card waiting in the deck: am i a joke to you?

[@gothboi4ever]

The guy who said “it’s a 75% chance to be demon” when the odds were 3/5 😂😂😂

[@kodiewillems5718]

I remember once I was messing around with my friends... I played the asylum (pre rework) and we ran around for a good 10-15 mins with little interaction. I ended up guessing it was a spirit and it was 😂😂😂 Purely unlikely but thought it was cool to have happened

[@keithgoh123]

Almost every time it's a demon and I ask it to write in the book, it decides to hunt instead.

[@RivkahSong]

11:37 "What's the worst that could happen? ...ah fuck." Insym no! Never challenge the power of worse! It will ALWAYS set out to prove you wrong; typically in the most frustrating or humiliating way possible lol. Seriously tho I am flabbergasted by that 2 in a row first guess demon. Talk about astronomical odds! 😂

[@nitram.9621]

The funny thing with ghost roulette is that mathematically you can "always" win against the chat by comparing the real odds (lets say 1/24 in the first roll) to what the chat bets. Like the first bet is always 300k believe to 3-5M doubt, so around 1 to 10-20 when you have 1/24 chance to land right. Meaning that by voting doubt first roll and betting always the same amount, chat is on average gonna give you coins no matter what. If you notice chat is voting really hard on doubt (>24 to 1), then you can just vote on believe and win on average again.

[@sharingheart13]

I do want to confirm that the wheel getting the ghost right on the very first try already did happen with an Obake. That Demon was actually the second time it happens.

[@alanyang7801]

Heyo Insym! This was definitely one of the most epic times I’ve had on stream! It’s also my bday today, so it’s cool you posted this one hell of a video today too! Have a good one!

[@steelebennett4788]

The chance of this happening including the demon being picked as ghost by the game and the wheel back to back is modeled as (1/24)^4 because 2 for each selection, .000301% meaning the probability of this happening is 1 in 120,000,000 or 120 million, this will most probably never happen again @insym

[@alexharkness5080]

100/24*3 2 for the wheel and 1 for the ghost being same twice in a row aka 0.00723379629%

[@steelebennett4788]

@@alexharkness5080 no, both are 2, and second thats not how percent works, thats the chance of the combination happening spaced out throughout the video, it being in a row changes it goofball. you cant just multiply it by 3 or 4 it has to be raised to the power of the number, thats how statistics works, so for the wheel and game to line up once its like 1/576 because (1/24)*(1/24), and for the second run because it is a NEW wheel spin AND a NEW Ghost chosen by the game it would be (1/24)*(1/24)*(1/24)*(1/24) or (1/24)^4, now go do that in a claculator. 24^4 is equal to 2,796,352, so since divided means out of, the probability is 1 out of (in) 2,796,352(0.000301%) where yours would be 1 in 13,810. i was wrong about my earlier said 120 million, i did the math wrong; However, This is much smaller than your probability, goofball.

[@pride1165]

@@steelebennett4788 It's 1/24 for the wheel being right the first time. Another 1/24 for the wheel choosing the same ghost and then another 1/24 for it being right again. So it's a 24^-3 probability for that. If we talk about it being specifically a demon, we multiply in another 1/24, but we're not talking about it being demon.

[@pride1165]

The wheel being right the first time is a 1/24 probability and not 1/576. This is because the probability is "the wheel chose the correct ghost" and the wheel can choose 24 ghosts out of which one is correct. It would be a 1/576 odds if we have our probability be something like "the wheel chose a demon which is the correct ghost"

[@iridescentshards]

it's 1 * (1/24) * (1/24) * (1/24) chance of wheel spin picking a ghost = 1 chance of that ghost being the ghost (chance of getting a specific ghost) = 1/24 chance of the wheel picking that ghost again (chance of getting a specific ghost) = 1/24 chance of getting that ghost again (chance of getting a specific ghost) = 1/24 = .00007%

[@-perp-4444]

the fact that you also rolled it twice makes it more like 0.000003% chance

[@kirby8964]

yep!!

[@sampvp134]

19:00 where it starts

[@oxydoreduction2483]

king

[@Una_Nacht]

Keep it up insym 🤭 really love your gameplay..

[@leancuisineable]

Im surprised no one has done "Clue" with phasmo.. at the start is going to be a Jinn in the Kitchen with the mirror. I guess with 24 ghosts it wouldn't be easy. This game was great tho. super entertaining. Its great that Insym keeps like reinventing the game.

[@Lanathepenguin]

9.28 "alright not a great start for the believers" if only you knew LOL And i was a believer ever since 🙌 this was genuinely one of my favourite streams and videos ever. ** spoilers ** Mainly bc i won on BOTH DEMONS! what a time, so much fun!

[@ashleymakesedits]

Same dude 😊

[@Nicolas-x3k]

9:28 is correct timestamp, for you guys on mobile out there.

[@captainsnowflakegames952]

If I remember terminoligy correctly, its called "the gamblers falicy". the idea that a chance increases or decreases based on how many times a certain outcome happens.

[@retro7663]

The Idea could be seen as a form of a Schrodinger's equation as we do not know the value (1/24) of what the ghost will be while receiving the 1/24 on the wheel, therefore at the point of spinning the wheel the ghost could be in limbo being any one of the 1/24 therefore it would be 1/24 * 1/24 for the chance that the wheel guesses correctly

[@sacarya1]

One time me and my friend played tanglewood three games in a row and all three times it was a Banshee, located in the foyer and the pajama girl ghost model. Never seen anything like that happen again

[@Deoxyskian]

Dang

[@ExoPhaz]

Hi this was funny as FUCK and insyms vids are just relaxing he just has the right amount of talking and his dedication of streaming every day even if he's a bit sick as long as he can speak. And insym to me has the title of "The Goat Of Phasmo". He looks at pretty much every comment no matter how old the video is.

[@Manic_Pixi3]

Ikr? And in my opinion the comments during the stream make it even more funny 🤣🤣🤣

[@abiubunifu8308]

I've always wished they would do an Australian mode for an april fools. Just imagine the truck guy speaking in an australian accent, the ghost cussing you out during a hunt with his australian accent. Players wearing a t-shirt and shorts..

[@JusstJess222]

Let’s goo! Gamba is my favourite I hope you do more of this! Thank you for the video ❤

[@passionfruii]

the ghost gambling videos are some of my absolute favorites

[@aSnOoPi]

I always enjoy watching your videos no matter which game no matter what u want to do because you are great my man ♥

[@sussyguys.]

i wish i had a better pc to play phasmo especially with you cause all skills i've learned were from you

[@samanthamagness208]

I should not be watching this near the middle of the night but I am 😂. I have terrible anxiety while watching your videos but in the end it’s worth it.

[@sweet-squids]

I was looking at a different tab and came back to Insym being chased by the Oni, made me laugh so hard lol

[@eliottbitter1181]

Hi Insym. I love your videos and content, but I’m just saying I would love to see you doing another ghost explanation tutorial since the last one was so long ago❤

[@dragroch5536]

GeoAlchemist won both Demon ones winning Top 4 highest rewards on both (highest on on the second). What a lad.

[@youtubetest4639]

Question: When the ghost possesses the light and turns it red, does that count as turning on a light which means it can't be a Mare?

[@MassiveP00]

Just a ghost event, I’m not sure if that hints towards it being a mare but I doubt it

[@torucchi]

I'm already having PTSD from all the points I've lost because of that ghost LMAO

[@snowmesha]

I was there! And I was a believer! I'm so happy this happened to me!

[@psychoticax645]

Around 7:00 in, i noticed he said it didnt stack, which should be obvious for everyone watching, he already started a game, meaning the ghost was already chosen. This backs up the fact it is just a singular 1/24 chance of guessing right. The whole thing with that, was he already had his run started, which that one guy completely disregarded.

[@TheJanstyler]

Thats not how that works. Its doesnt matter that he already started. What has to happen for 2 1/24 chances: "I want this specific ghost (i.e. Jin)(1/24 chance) AND I want the roulette to pick the same one (1/24 chance)." What actually happens: "I dont care what ghost I get (no chance involved. The result is the same for 24/24 ghosts) BUT I want the roulette to pick the same ghost (1/24 chance)." He was absolutely correct, and it has nothing to do with the game already being ongoing, because the ghost he gets in-game doesnt matter. You can see it as (24/24 or 100%) * (1/24). What you are talking about is (1/24) * (1/24), which is not whats happening here.

[@Dylthepickle]

I'm having too much fun watching these. These gambas truly make for purely exciting videos!

[@Solar_Flare.]

“What’s the worst that can happen?” Pulls out a death card. “Oh sh!t”

[@STRIDER_503]

Imagine getting bamboozled SO HARD even after SO MANY successful runs. 🤣 GG & You never know what's in store when it comes to Phasmophobia!!

[@roninheart19]

I love your channel and ghost gambling is a great idea; so much fun to watch the reactions

[@51245Thomas]

17:30 Could someome tell me what made him realise it's a yokai? Ik he has much more game knowledge then me, I still play intermediate, but I wanna see what to look for and what's his way of thinking?

[@cjaskew_18]

I THINK it’s because it instantly forgot where he was, couldn’t hear him far away, and went looking elsewhere for insym but I could be wrong

[@Michelle__s]

finally got to play phas for the first time and thank god id watched your videos cause i never woulda known how to loop a damn ghost lmaooo

[@dhruvkeerop1845]

Let's go gost gambling ❤️ Thanks Insym ❤️

[@kanayastourture1162]

Weird comment I just wanna say thank you for uploading these long videos I watch these in the gym to pass my hour start lol and I’ve been wanting to watch phasmophobia so it’s a win win thank you!!

[@booferguy]

“0.007% is never happening again” Sols RNG and TDM:R players: *rookie numbers*

[@duyngaii]

Wdym

[@booferguy]

@@duyngaii it’s a roblox game

[@mrunknown-2003z]

Those Roblox Games. Hah! Pathetic.

[@Voyzuu]

Merry Christmas insym and good job on 600K 🎉

[@Xbigmike17X]

I lost 30k on the Ist demon but the 2nd demon I had a feeling and put 10k down. I'm glad I did. That double demon was some of the most fun I've had on the stream.

[@testpifive9262]

Imagine the ghost, just standing there as he screams to write in the book

[@Doinkison]

I think I need to join the twitch, your streams looks crazy

[@Lanathepenguin]

join us join us 😄

[@TheVodkaSniper]

The guy was correct on the statistics being both multiplied together. So instead of the chances the board predicts the ghost in game being 1/24, its (1/24)(1/24)= 1/576, or 0.0017 -> 0.17% Heres the actual statistics behind this. Our events are 1) spinny board and 2) ghost selection ingame. We must assume both are fair, ergo the spinny board has exactly 1/24 chance to select every single option, and Phas is fair in its selection of ghosts, meaning every ghost has a 1/24 chance to be selected. These events are mutually exclusive of each other, ergo our probabilities are as follows -> Probability of event (A & B) occurring together = P(A) * P(B). P(A)= 1/24 & P(B) = 1/24. Ergo P(A & B)= (1/24)(1/24) = 1/576. Now that we've determined the probability of the spinny board predicting the ghost in game, lets view this prediction being correct twice. Again these events are mutually exclusive so we use the same formula. P(A & B) = P(A) * P(B). But from before we've determined the probability of one of these events is 1/576, so P(A) and P(B) both equal 1/576, so P(A & B) = (1/576)(1/576) = 1/331,776 -> 3.01408179*10^-6 -> 0.000000301 --> .0000301% To give some relatability to these numbers, the chance of being struck by lightning is 1/15,300. There is a higher chance of being struck by lightning than this happening.

[@TWGuardian]

There's an error here, but it's not in the mathematics. It's in the question. The probability that Insym calculated (in the title) is correct. What Insym has calculated there is (1/24)^3, the probability of the same ghost being selected thrice. What you've calculated are the odds of a specific ghost being selected thrice (the fourth 1/24 being the odds of the first wheel selecting that particular ghost). But that's not true: it's (1/24)^3 because we don't care about the output of the first wheel. Let's put it this way. What you've calculated is the odds of the wheel, then the game, then again the wheel and then again the game selecting 'Demon'. But before the first wheel, we weren't even looking for the demon.

[@TheVodkaSniper]

@@TWGuardian Yes, Insym is correct in his calculation of the ghost being selected 3 times in a row, but my original point was not concerning just ghost selection as you have pointed out in your last sentence. At 6:25 Insym specifically says "There is a 1/24 chance the wheel picks the right ghost." The first half of my comment is to specifically refute this assertion. The latter half of my comment is to prove that the spinny board predicting the ghost in game correctly twice in a row is a rarer event than the same ghost being selected three times in a row Here are the timestamps from which I collected my data: 19:07 - Spinny board predicts Demon 32:40 - Result of that game is Demon 34:02 - Spinny board predicts Demon again 43:57 - Result of game is Demon again My calculations in its entirety were to calculate each of these events happening back to back. The spins at 19:07 and 34:02 were both prior to the start of the game. Due to this, we have to take into account both spins as part of our calculations as being 1/24.

[@TWGuardian]

@@TheVodkaSniper "At 6:25 Insym specifically says "There is a 1/24 chance the wheel picks the right ghost." The first half of my comment is to specifically refute this assertion." He's right though. In this case the order is in reverse: the game picks ghost X, what is the probability that the wheel has also picked ghost X? 1 in 24, since the two events are unrelated. The probability of the wheel and the game agreeing is 1 in 24 and not 1 in 576 because 1. the two events are unrelated and 2. we don't care for any particular ghost, so long as both rolls end up with the same value. Since we're dealing with an evenly distributed, discrete random variable, we can consider this as a game of dice. What you're calculating there is akin to the probability of rolling snake eyes. What Insym is describing is the probability of rolling the same value. It is a probability of 1 in 576 that both the wheel and the game select 'Hantu' for example. But if you were to write out all 576 permutations, you'll see that there are 24 permutations where the game and the wheel agree, one per ghost. So there are 24 scenarios wherein the wheel and the game will agree. Meaning that we have: (1/24)*(1/24)*24 = 1/24. This is also why "the guy" was not correct: we need only take the probability of both rolls into account if we're looking for a particular permutation. This same problem applies to your calculation of the probability, and is why it disagrees with Insym's result. You are calculating the probability of the sequence 'Demon-Demon-Demon-Demon' but that's not the point, because it isn't interesting that it's a demon in particular. That has no added value since the demon isn't any rarer than the other ghost types. Nor did we care beforehand that the sequence was four demons, it could just as well have been four banshees or four mares. So we are again looking for the probability of having a four-long sequence of the same value. And again if you write out all 24^4 permutations, you'll find that there are 24 permutations that only contain the same ghost. So we again have 24 unique permutations, and multiplying your result by 24 yields the value that Insym has. "Insym is correct in his calculation of the ghost being selected 3 times in a row" This isn't entirely accurate. What Insym calculated is the probability of ANY ghost being selected FOUR times in a row. What you calculated in your OP is the probability of a SPECIFIC ghost being selected FOUR times in a row. I hope this makes sense.

[@GrafTepid]

I once had a demon before, wish I knew it was that rare

[@night_ninja3767]

The reason it was rare was because there was 2 demons in a row and the wheel had demon twice in a row

[@PetersExcapades]

demons themselves arent rare its 1/24 chance to get any ghost in the game its the fact it was 2 back to back AND the wheel said demon both times. that makes it super rare

[@yuh_299]

i love the chat saying "bye KZbin" at the end. its so cute

[@Cindershadow]

Insym, sorry about this, but yes technically it is 1/24 and 1/24 when you do the stat math breakdown. It does not really matter, but because you are spinning your wheel and the game at the same time so you are choosing random chance twice. so it is a 0.17% chance that the wheel and the ghost match up, because of the random chance twice statistic. If you just choose a ghost, then you have a 1/24, but because you spin it is twice, random chance has happened twice. When you play the lotto, If you do a random pick vs a pick you choose ever week there is a much higher chance that the chosen pick will eventually show up vs the random pick. (1/49x1/48x1/47x1/46x1/45x1/44)x(1/49x1/48x1/47x1/46x1/45x1/44), because a quick pick and the numbers drawn. So yes the commenter is correct to say it is 1/24 twice. Ultimately the chance does not matter, it is a fun challenge, and the percent rare chance is small enough to not care about the actual stats. Thanks for listening to this TED talk on statistics, If you made it this far in this comment, thank you

[@roymedhurst]

This is still wrong. The game has a 1 in 24 chance of picking any particular ghost. Whichever ghost it picks, there is still only a 1 in 24 chance that the wheel roll will be the same because it is picking from 24 ghosts. Even though there are two "rolls", the odds are still only dependant on them being the same, so it's 1/24. It would only be more if you are saying "what are the chances of the game choosing a specific ghost, such as an Oni, and then the wheel picking the same?".

[@Cindershadow]

If i said it would always be a Mare, then that is 1 in 24 chance Because there is a roll of chance first then a second roll for chance in the game it is 1/24x1/24 I did not write the book of math on statistics, but look it up, this is how statistics of probability works.

[@user-vo7yn6jj3o]

@@roymedhurst Cindershаdow's math is correct. Basically, we say what are the chances that specific ghost (in this case, demon) would be the ghost in the game twice? So, it's 1/24*1/24 which is 0.17%. However, if we asking what are the chances of picking ONE SPECIFIC ghost twice on the weel and twice in the game, that would be 1/24*1/24*1/24*1/24*100 = 0.0003% So 1/24*1/24 for the wheel and 1/24*1/24 for the game combined. Makes sense?

[@roymedhurst]

@@user-vo7yn6jj3o Yeah, twice makes sense, but everyone's arguing about the chances of it happening just once which is what insym was talking about in the beginning. The chances of the wheel choosing the correct ghost, once, is still just 1 in 24

[@roymedhurst]

@@Cindershadow Whatever ghost the game chooses it still makes the wheel getting the correct ghost 1 in 24. The overall options of results equal 1 in 24 x 1 in 24, but 24 of those results are the wheel choosing the same as the game does. It's exactly the same as the chances of rolling 2 dice of any number of sides with the same number. With two 6 sided dice there are 36 possible outcomes but 6 of those are 1&1 2&2 3&3 4&4 5&5 and 6&6. 6 out of 36 makes it a 1 in 6 chance of them being the same. The same applies to 24 options. So even though the game rolls and chooses 1 in 24, the wheel then has a 1 in 24 chance of picking the same ghost. 24 x 24 options, with 24 of those resulting in the wheel and game being the same, so 1 in 24. Statistics aren't always intuitive but they do make sense when you study them closer. This is why Insym was right and got frustrated when someone tried to correct him in a patronising way, whilst being totally wrong.

[@desalsas2626]

For thoses that don't understand the probability explination that insymn gave, the first variable doesn't matter. Just matters that the second matches the first. So the first variable isn't a variable, its a set value. The second is what we need to find out (like the ghost type). Therefore the probability for the game to match the wheel is 1/24. Also!!!! You should bet low on the first ghost and bet higher on the second as you have a 1/24 chance to get it right the first, but a better chance once he gets the 1st evidence, and an even better chance once he gets the 2nd evidence. (I'm too lazy to calculate, but I hope the theory makes sence) Edit: Insym may never get the second evidence so trying to wait for that can also be a gamble.

[@mattjohnson8777]

Sounds like you are describing the monty hall problem but with more words.

[@desalsas2626]

​@@mattjohnson8777 HOLY COW!!! you're right! I didn't even know this was a thing lol.

[@markstone918]

It's always 1 in the total amount of ghosts at first. Then it's 1 in however many are left.

[@blob0000]

The last ghost is probably having Asthma and just wants a spray

[@xxbloodorchidxx6711]

Always a believer lol! Learning off you! You’re the reason I begged my fiancé to get me phasmo. You’re the reason I have the balls to go down to the basement and pull some tarot cards while my friend yells at the door of the house xD you insym alone have given me the courage I haven’t had in many horror games to just balls into a basement and say, “show me a sign” my friend said I have more balls than her. And I just recently got her into the game!!!! Day 4 of phasmo only 5 ghosts right!!!

[@minikkoma]

Does she even have balls 🤣🤣

[@Cookie11_ccookkiiee]

7:10 actually I know at least in the current update it is stacked towards certain ghosts spawning😅

[@yayeert4679]

The chance of the Wheel getting the Same ghost the game picks is 1/24*1/24, however this event happens in 24 scenarios meaning we have (24*1)/(24*24) if we multiply and divide we get 1/24, because we can say the game picks any ghost, probabilty being 1, and now the wheel has to get this ghost, probability then being 1/24

[@Splatenohno]

What’s the worst that could happen - famous final words

[@harry_burnsworth]

I've had multiple ghosts, wraith, reventant and deo each appear 5 times in a row (think it was 4 for the wraith). Regardless, I am doubting the RNG nature of the ghosts sometimes.

[@aqfia]

At 8:00 my peanut brain cannot tell anything

[@angelindenile]

I think I understand the logic behind someone saying its 1/24 twice. (I dont agree though.) For those that are betting, you have to hope it lands on the ghost you want, and then again as the game rolls the actual type of ghost. If you don't care about the ghost type then it doesn't matter, its still 1/24 and a 23/24. But the act of using a wheel adds another layer of randomness, you dont get to guess yourself-- hence the twice 1/24 for people betting on it being that type of ghost.

[@lotte_is_tired]

phasmophobia's ghost type picker is a paid actor

[@PatientSqueaky]

How do I already know this will be way too insane/lucky?

[@KaihanDTuna]

Simple.. if you see insym then you knew he was a lucky guy or insane

[@calgrillz6374]

Because its titled 0.007% Chance lol

[@kyleedwards7634]

Merry CHristmas everyone! I was there ( though i didnt comment cuz i was watching with my phone,and its hard to comment by phone)

[@lonewolfheart1697]

Merry Christmas! 🎄🎅🎁🍾❄️☃️🎉🧸

[@ThatoneguyBLONDIEE]

Bro i swear, he isn't afraid of the demons. The demons are afraid of him.

[@Novaissue]

(spoi) Believers finally won on the first try POGGG

[@athenacutie]

For those people who are confused or wanted a layman's term, I think y'all should know the context first. For the claim that it should be (1x24)^4x100, I think that is true if we are looking for demon twice on the wheel and twice for the game roll. However, the context is that: the first spin of wheel is not included, since it is just roll on what type of ghost that we should predict during the game. We are not looking for demon on the first wheel roll. However, the first game roll of the ghost (1/24), the second spin of wheel (1/24), and the second game roll of the ghost (1/24) are in the solution since what are the odds that demon will be selected. Therefore, it should be (1/24)^3x100, and not (1/24)^4x100. I hope this helps, and context matters. :)

[@doiboiplayswarthunder3980]

Phasmophobia has a low scariness ceiling, after about 150 hours of playing you are no longer scared and then its not fun anymore, im at 110 hours and i want to keep being scared so its more fun, but i wonder if the devs will do anything about this. The game is still great and they put tons of work into it, but once you get good enough at the game you get nostalgic of the days you were terrified.

[@Kooldish]

"Safest all in ever" -best last words

[@sycotic9020]

The chance does stack. It'll be a 1 in 24 to land on a oni for example, and then another 1 in 24 for the ghost to actually be an oni. For both of those to happen together is a 1 in 576 chance

[@melip3114]

And if it happens twice?

[@Mike.yt543]

Yeah but the question isn't "What are the odds of getting Oni on the wheel and in-game?". The question is simply "What are the odds that the in-game ghost matches the wheel?", meaning it does not matter what the wheel rolls, it can roll any of the 24 ghosts, all that matters is that the game also picks the right ghost.

[@micerama6284]

The odds of getting doubles from a pair of dice is not 1/12. It’s 1/6. If we’re not looking for any specific value, it doesn’t matter what the first die we roll is. The only thing that matters is the value of the second die, which has a 1/6 chance of matching the first value. Now if you were looking for a pair of 6s then yeah, that gets more unlikely, but the example you’re referring to in the video (I think) is just referring to having any two ghosts match. In which case, only ghosts after the first one matter towards the probability

[@CameronSalazar2113]

I love how much Insym love to stir the pot between the believers and the non believers by just saying simple phrases and working both corners but still staying neutral at the same time, TBH it a skill not a Hobby, he is truly great at making both sides feel like they lost and won everything all in one session!

[@flippinoflippino9401]

I think the chance in the title is wrong, I think you are missing a zero: The chance that the weel got it right in the first game: 1/24 The chance that the weel lands on Demon the second time: 1/24 The chance that is is a demon again: 1/24 1/24 * 1/24 * 1/24 = 0.0000723

[@mihalypeti]

Youre wrong. A ghost is selected, doesnt matter which one, Insym ranted about it why. Its 1/24 the wheel is correct. Then you have a 1/24 chance the game selects that same ghost in the next game. Another 1/24 is added for the wheel to pick correctly. So you end up with 3 1/24 chances.

[@Skylavaosrs]

multiply by 100 to get the percentage

[@Majoris239]

Your number is correct, but it is in decimal form, not percentage form. Multiply by 100 and you get 0.007%

[@noats3213]

7:26 commenter has a point. the chances of the wheel itself picking any ghost is 1:24. but the chances of the wheel picking the correct ghost is not 1:24. since the question is technically 'whats the chance of 2 wheels (the wheel and the game) picking the same thing out of 24 options) 1:24^2

[@noats3213]

what insym is saying doesnt make sense, you cant ignore reciprocation in probability. its like saying the chance of getting 2 dice the same is 1:6 and because the 1st dice doesnt matter

[@retro7663]

@@noats3213 I agree, The Idea could be seen as a form of a Schrodinger's equation as we do not know the value (1/24) of what the ghost will be while receiving the 1/24 on the wheel, therefore at the point of spinning the wheel the ghost could be in limbo being any one of the 1/24 therefore it would be 1/24 * 1/24 for the chance that the wheel guesses correctly

[@TheJanstyler]

@@noats3213 See, you are making a mistake in your thinking, and you almost pointed it out yourself. The chance of having to dice the same is, in fact, 1/6. The chance of having two dice be the same SPECIFIC number (lets say 3) is (1/6) * (1/6). That is, because you have SIX chances of getting two of the same. 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5, and 6-6. ((1/6) * (1/6) *6) = 1/6. So no, the first dice does not matter. The first dice only determines the number the second dice has to roll. My teacher used to call something like this an "event", because you aren't searching for a specific outcome. If you were to want a specific outcome though, you only had one chance to get it ((1/6) * (1/6) *1), which is what you are referring to. In the case of what insym did with this stream, the specific outcome (i.e. Jinn-Jinn) didn't matter. Only the event (two of the same ghost) mattered. Which invalidated the first spin, as all 24 ghosts were valid. His chance was ((1/24) * (1/24) * 24) = 1/24.

[@TheJanstyler]

@@retro7663 Schrödinger has nothing to do with this. I answered WHY the chance is only 1/24 as a reply to the same person you replied to.

[@kaitlynngolsan7653]

He sounded like an astrology girl when he said "omg that is so banshee of you"

[@PoisonProductions_]

Insym is a w math teacher

[@patrickhung1390]

16:49 so funny that the car alarm went off on the tower

[@tntfreddan3138]

Been watching so much Phasmo on YT that when I played with my friend who is lvl 23 and thought I was a noob at lvl 8, I figured out a ghost after one evidence and one ghost event. First I found the ghost room (basement at Tanglewoon), dropped my thermometer on one of the suit cases and placed some salt even though my friend wanted to figure out what ghost it is first. I told him it's easier to find out what ghost it is if we know what it isn't first. As soon as I went down with the dots stick I saw the ghost with the dots. I checked dots. Then when I had placed it and was on my way out, there was a singing ghost event and it happened right where I was walking so I walked through it and it dissappeared. I checked my sanity and noticed it was conciderably lower than my friend's so I checked banshee and he said "no way, we need more evidence". I brought with me the ultraviolet light and saw a handprint on the basement door, checked the thermo and it wasn't freezing but my friend saw ghost orbs on the camera he placed down there. It took us 15 minutes to get all evidence. It took me 5 minutes to figure out which ghost it was XD

[@Zer0_Soul]

at 29:05 the insymbot shows the rules after someone else's message was deleted at 28:53, i'm assuming it's because of the "no caps" rule, but if that's a rule, why are there caps in the rules message, and why is nobody else's message with caps getting deleted? also i know i should be capitalizing my i's and the beginnings of my sentences but i don't know if the same rules apply in here and don't want to risk it.

[@TGameDev]

Lol very true. Its only 1/24 * 1/24 (or 1/576) if you're calculating the odds of it being mare twice in a row since the odds of it being that the first time is 1/24. They probably confused themselves by thinking about each time the odds were rerolled which is a totally different calculus and it then instead becomes "what are the odds that it gets selected three times in a row when halving each group at random" which is not the same thing anyways.

[@nugenplayer2219]

Watching Chat lose it is HILARIOUS

[@Octoborg]

Our brains are terrible at understanding stacking odds. Not only do you need to know how to apply the math correctly, you often need to actively resist your intuition about how it "should" work. And getting the equations right won't help if your mathematical model doesn't fit the situation.

[@MrChez.]

*beautiful melody starts playing* insym: AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH