The Real Estate Timing Model Continues to Indicate a Severe Housing Correction is Coming!

[@patrickm9953]

Great Video, nice to get some insights into the Phoenix Area too

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. Thank you. It still amazes me that everything cycles. Once one recognizes that, it becomes easier. We are just due. Michael Douville

[@denissmith3658]

Good work big guy…

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your kind words. I experienced the Real Estate Crash of the Paul Volcker era. I was 29. It devastated me. I was totally unprepared for a catastrophic downturn. Prior to the downturn, my life was really good; making money and spending every dime...We have just lived through one of the greatest RE Bull Markets ever...this is NOT the norm. One of my goals is to prepare for a very possible repeat of the GFC; get out of debt, build cash reserves, protect your Income, and keep your credit pristine. Michael Douville

[@user-dr8us5cr4u]

Subscriber from Florida. like your videos.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. Florida is a great long term Market. It may be ahead of itself at the moment. Michael Douville

[@mle3857]

What do you think about Boise? Prices headed down as well?

[@jibberjabber-fm6pb]

inventory exploding in naples fl but prices not really coming down

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for the comment. Inventory rising comes first, then as competition for buyers heats up, prices start to decline. If the Market is severely slowing, the lowest price sells which creates the new lower comp. I believe the Downside of the Market will mirror the upside and 3-4% per month declines are very possible. Florida is a great market, but it is based on Hospitality and serving the retirees who have no potential growing the Income consequently capping the revenue. The retiree's purchasing power is generally fixed or severely limited. Their spending is guaranteed to decrease. Look for Florida and Texas to correct severely. Michael Douville

[@pictureworksdenver]

Low interest long duration debt transferred risk away from the household sector and onto the financial sector. While CRE may be In persistent decline, an environment of structural supply shortage prevents a similar correction in housing.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for the well thought out comment. I cannot agree with you more. Housing is in short supply; there is plenty of demand. However, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a Demand Destruction by raising rates so high the affordability factor has skyrocketed. It is Payment not PRICE that dictates what families will buy. Either rates come way down or Prices come way down! Michael Douville

[@alexanderpetrov7027]

I can see the real estate market cracking here in Maryland

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for the comment. There are only a couple paths that can be taken to correct the imbalance in affordability. The reality has always been what the monthly payment will be as the deciding factor to purchase, not the price in all but the higher ranges. Certainly, at the foundational level of the first-time homebuyer. To resolve the imbalance, interest rates need to drop drastically which would result in incredibly higher prices freezing out the very people meant to benefit, or prices need to drastically correct which has been the rhythm and self-correcting mechanism for centuries. Michael Douville

[@alexanderpetrov7027]

@@michaeldouville690 Thanks Michael, the last real estate crash was an absolute blessing, enabled my 1st home purchase as a 23yo. Maybe this is the break that gen Z needs

[@JohnDoep]

I know you don’t see any major crashes in Arizona specifically but surely there will be some price contractions ?

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. Phoenix will not be immune from the retracement. During the GFC, tens of thousands of Contruction workers left Phoenix in search of work elsewhere creating a vacancy problem for landlords; any over leveraged investor lost their property when the market value collapsed, and the property sat vacant. Phoenix is no longer dependent on constant growth and construction. However, markets in Texas and Florida have a huge construction dependency. Research is showing construction layoffs have begun; it will not just be the over-leveraged investors that suffer, rather the whole community will be affected by the loss of retail, entertainment, groceries, utilities, tax revenue, etc. As far as Phoenix is concerned, and this will be the same across the US, affordability needs to be restored. That can be achieved only by lower prices or lower rates, probably a combination. Could Phoenix retrace 15-30 %? I sure think so! Michael Douville

[@billjames3030]

Michael please run for President. America needs a very smart person like you running our country. 🇺🇸

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for the comment. I love my family; politics is brutal. However, your point is well taken. All of us need to KNOW who the candidates are. My wife takes weeks checking the background, the affiliations, court judgments, bankruptcies, etc. There are many candidates that should not make decisions for us; we seem to not take elections seriously and we have paid the price. Michael Douville

[@frankmuller73]

subscriber from perth/ western australia , I guess that will be worldwide effect

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comments. I love City Beach! My sons went to 3rd and 5th grade at a Catholic School in Perth. What a great place to live. I learned to LOVE Footie! Unfortunately, I believe Australia follows the US with a lag. However, the Natural Resources of Western Australia will keep your Economy vibrant for decades. There is also coming a shift in the US Dollar coming and OZ will definitely benefit. Best, Michael Douville