The Recession is ABOUT to HIT | George Gammon.

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00:00 The Recession is Close.
01:30 Inflation from Easing War vs Pandemics.
06:36 Deflation & the Yield Curve.
12:26 What the Fed Does Now.
📝Disclaimer:
This video is not personalized advice for the viewer.

[@edder2000]

We had 12 recessions last year

[@eyelovecolorado2195]

Do you know basic math? We had only 11. 😂

[@endofquoterepeattheline7516]

Lol

[@uroszecevic1389]

He became boring with every day recession

[@tactileslut]

If they can call it "rolling" and spread it out a bit the official numbers can opt out of showing it.

[@cryptowire]

Recession Recovery 😂

[@robinpowell5408]

I'm going out on a limb here and say that any declared recession won't happen until after the election. 🤔

[@pietrovalsecchi1680]

Indeed!

[@rfreeman5012]

No kidding, we have been in rolling recession since q4 2022.

[@SolidNate99]

Why be scared? Recessions are only temporary

[@NoWastedCalories]

@@SolidNate99recession can lead to depression can lead to collapse.

[@SolidNate99]

@@NoWastedCalories why waste your time worrying about collapse? America is so incredibly prosperous. Nothing is collapsing anytime soon

[@thisguy1920]

@@SolidNate99lol everything is collapsing but everything is fine.

[@SolidNate99]

@@thisguy1920 sit on the side then bro. Have fun w that

[@michaellenahan9830]

George has an old school way of debating where he actually attempts to understand the others position to the point he could explain it and respectfully disagree but possibly have a hint of openness to being wrong. We need more of this type of discussion in our society.

[@peter5149]

Gammon predicting a crash?!?!? I am shocked. Shocked!

[@forester057]

100% Grifter!

[@travismartinson1813]

We had the recession in 2022 the government just refused to admit it.

[@wearetheremnants1615]

February 2023 was the official start of the "technical recession"

[@zedzed5276]

99% of people don't care about recessions. the only thing that matters is whether tech stocks go up or down.

[@RichardTN]

Kevin thinks the Fed is somehow engineering some precise tuning of the economy. Meanwhile, in reality, they just sit there for a year and do absolutely nothing. 🤣

[@ghostarmor87]

😂😂

[@shancunma6001]

sometimes doing nothing is the best thing you can do.

[@vince1376]

ThIs TiMe Is DiFfErEnT

[@terryo1463]

The news keeps saying we are not in recession but I can’t buy all my groceries and only fill my tank half way and can’t eat out cause even McDonald’s is expensive but I still make the same amount of money. I don’t know what I am gonna do if this isn’t recession.

[@cwill2000]

George is the old bull and Kevin is the young bull standing on the hill looking down at the field😊. Great discussion.

[@MetalBum]

Except George is the old BEAR

[@suzit242]

No full time jobs available. People are working 2 or more jobs right now. We are already in recession. Google laying off over 1,000, Twitch and Amazon laying off. Read the headlines this last week.

[@kevinarrevillaga926]

We heading to depression

[@BasementBerean]

Shields up! Brace for impact!

[@cybergigafactory]

Wow, thanks for this video! Another gem IMO. Greatly explained. 👍

[@roflchopter11]

Did we actually expand manufacturing? Are we so sure that physical assets are what limits production? Or did we pour a bunch of money into the finance sector, which doesn't actually produce anything? If companies want more sales volume, why won't they lower prices?

[@smcg1938]

Because the products being sold where purchased in a inflated market. The company I work for has been very agile and we still have some products we are taking some losses on just so we can stay in a good spot. The fed will have to lower rates to not choke the economy into a recession.

[@jim7700]

they rationed during the war, which they didn't during the lockdowns....

[@wearetheremnants1615]

Cyber tech stuff doesn't count as production

[@TritonTv69420]

machinist here... was laid off in November. This year is going to be cray cray!

[@SMoore-vj7bt]

Elephant-in-the-living-room that the clown🤡Kevin missed is that supply chains are bottle-necked now.💡We are only two strait blockades away from supply chain disruption up the wazoo.🤦‍♂And China needs to lower their GDP thus needs war as C19 only helped them for 2 years, c.f. How China Trapped Itself by Michael Pettis at Foreign Affairs.

[@ryansatchell2302]

I don’t think your thesis is incorrect or crazy. I think it explains the exact environment we were in post GFC. 0 rates and QE kept a mask on the fact that we’d otherwise have been in an extended depression. This is why our debt has grown more since the GFC than the 230 years prior. What I believe your missing however, is that this strategy is much less effective when already in an extreme inflationary environment. Your only hope is that the fed times it exactly right, so that the excess inflation runs off before the deflationary pressures(AI, softer job market) become too strong. Otherwise, they’ll have to send stimulus checks not because of a pandemic. But because unemployment is too high. And I don’t think any government or FED official is stupid enough to do that. My opinion: too much faith in the Fed has almost never worked out. They will likely be too early(and inflation reanimates) or too late(and a recession occurs). Great discussion and content as always!

[@ohioguy727]

Remember they said robots and AI would make life easier for everyone but it's actually getting harder and harder 😂😂😂

[@forester057]

I’m still waiting on my sex bot though 😂

[@JasonAldeann-bt4xf]

We better pray it doesnt turn into a depression..

[@brenthazel]

We've been in a rolling recession for 18 months.

[@brewdog8568]

I move freight up and down the west coast and half the Midwest. We have been in a Recession 😂 I talk to a lot of working class people and they all have the same thing to say.

[@1ChristopherCampbell]

Blue collar workers complain about the same old things constantly.

[@Robyn-Hood]

Thank you 🎉🎉🎉 Too bad you guys didn’t microphone check😢

[@scott-gy6fe]

Yes, both are underwater

[@Danieltkb25]

Every year the recession is about to hit

[@Tommywonders]

My guys! This is cool

[@jim7700]

bigger question is, when is kevin going on vacation??

[@sharadpatel9207]

Kevin, a 10 year expansion period idoes not historically hold water. Normal expansions last 4 to 6 years on usual. We had an expansion from 2010 or so due to the FED holding rates as low and long as they did.

[@mcgowee]

Great info. I wonder how the ease of buying and selling bonds has changed the yield curve. My grandparents would buy bonds but they had to drive to a broker and fill out paperwork. I can buy bonds instantly sitting on the toilet.

[@brianscott1978]

Very possible we are seeing the after effects of a recession that has already happened. I think depending on how far away Tesla or anyone else is from getting bots into factories might be the real recession everyone is looking for. If it happens in the next year or two.

[@pietrovalsecchi1680]

Excellent video!

[@marliegay4888]

Every year someone will be saying we will be in a recession in a few months so if it doesn't happen this year like it didn't happen last year in 2025 look out.

[@DRIFTROX]

Has first rounds of stackhack financial advice been completed and given out? Thkx

[@sadiejones7991]

In the good ole days the fed reacted to the economy, now the economy reacts to the fed. Go figure

[@stoneddoggie]

Omg i hate trying to come back to a video for it to be deleted, what happened to the main interview that was posted this morning or yesterday?

[@RexFinance]

My argument is that yield curve inversions anticipate financial crises, which can turn into credit crunches, which can cause recessions. The yield curve correctly anticipated a financial crisis (SVB), but because the Fed acted so quickly and effectively, we're unlikely to see the recession. The yield curve predicts the Fed's policy cycle, not necessarily the business cycle.

[@alexwalker5645]

We do want job loss. That is the only way to reset the housing market and the auto industry. The federal reserve said that in the beginning of this rate-hike cycle.

[@Shane-yx2hi]

Love the shirt

[@henrybeadlejr4640]

Interview Ken Fisher sometime. He seems to be always correct. Neil Cavuto had him last week on Fox Business

[@brianspencer7173]

Kevin, I never hear you consider the complexity added by the WEF when doing financial analysis. Why?

[@lipostube]

Gammon always sees crashes 🤣

[@wearetheremnants1615]

Technically we never recovered from 2008

[@BrianDavis-no6gy]

Thanks guys , Our "Leaders" seem to be working hard on producing a "War Time Economy" a "World War Time Economy" !

[@misternobody9801]

Nice

[@sjlouvieify]

13:43 LALALAND! WE HAVE BEEN IN A RECESSION!

[@markpaperhanger2481]

It has to do with lowering interest rates that is it

[@benj1236]

*I dont know why anyone would think that? 🤷‍♂ I mean, companies have been laying off people left and right.*

[@MrTBify]

I think the difference between now and pre 1930's. If we have a loss of revenue today. Increased deficits from social safety nets and increasing rate of borrowing the downturns have greater magnitude of impact from smaller shifts in the economy today then in the past.

[@MH-hd1fu]

Kevin, is it possible that we could have moderate deflation in 2024 and 2025 to return prices to pre pandemic levels?

[@tactileslut]

WTF audio? It sounds like you're conserving flash storage and had the recording device in a pocket.

[@lyleburlingame2276]

How long has George been saying that and to buy gold ?

[@_SheriBen]

"About to?" 😂 Where 👏 have 👏 you 👏 been?

[@Richard-cq4kv]

Multiple States are already in recession.

[@nicksaylor3288]

Black and Decker ain't making gps guided tomahawk missiles. It's way harder to retool for war, war is way for technicals rather than mechanical.

[@edmundsutro]

Soft landing!!! 🛬

[@kittysaywut]

Anytime now bois

[@learnprogress6618]

Great ur make it happen. Anything got bucks ,

[@sjlouvieify]

11:00 In your example of U.S Treasury bond yield spreads... Does it in 1928 compare to 2024

[@jamesblackard1127]

Remember when n 2021 when they came out and said the wanted to bat inflation with quantity control .... So we are getting less product with hirer prices. I am a contractor in residential construction and I will tell you the prices are through the roof and add on family groceries it's insane!!

[@Dressy7]

Monetary stimulus acts with a lag. If the Fed reacts to inflation that’s too low or even deflation, it’s too late, deflationary spiral will happen. Theyll need fiscal stimulus and A LOT of it to stop the deflationary train.

[@lampali]

Hey Meet Kevin, can you do a CyberTruck test drive video?

[@sjlouvieify]

18:11 Who knows? Got an answer for ya young buck..... It's called history! The "New Guy" always tells everyone it's different this time!

[@TeslaEVolution]

3/12 Kevin!!!! 3/12 Nivek!

[@FilipeSilva1]

This is the beggining of a depression.

[@FilipeSilva1]

not the beggining of a soft landing.

[@SuperCatbert]

It’s just number fudging. Everyone is under more pressure and is taking less for the work they put in. The treadmill is going faster and faster and more people are falling off

[@jeffcann9159]

We’ve had 7 recession in the last 3 years.

[@endofquoterepeattheline7516]

I really wish I knew what the hell you are talking about lol…but I’m still here trying to learn 👍

[@davidkw9]

I want deflation. We need things to get cheaper.

[@Happycat8385]

Things seem like there heading in the right direction where I live I'm sure escalated wars and other variables could change this as stated by dude in video but that's just a variable right now....at least for now im paying 2.75 a gallon for gas rather than $4+ and if i strategically shop and look for sales especially on meat and load up my monthly grocery bill for 3 ppl is down about a third depending on the month give or take a few %

[@Happycat8385]

Getting my yearly furnace servicing was crazy imo 300 bucks a dude was in my basement for an hour tops

[@350zLeMans]

But Janet said we had a soft landing😂

[@Dustin101]

Im not sure what manufacturing we actually do in America besides Bombs and Defense does anyone know?

[@sjlouvieify]

18:00 Wrongggg!

[@phillipevans6448]

_About_ to hit? Better late to the party than never.

[@shawnaning101]

Kevins opinion of the FEDs control of rates is misplaced. According to a line Kevin read on one of his livestreams from I believe from the FED minutes said market rates had gone against what the FED was trying to achieve with rates. The rates are an indication of market sentiment. With the exception of the overnight rate the FED has little control over rates, they are only a market participant with a large balance sheet. I feel like (yes my opinion) the FED seem to follow rates not control them. I could be wrong.

[@optionmillionairebstudios]

There will be another crash. Just dont be a bag holder and buy the dip like your life depends on it.

[@dougellis2216]

WW2 inflation....what about the war tax thats never left

[@thirdeyeliquidators329]

George Gammon thinks that always lol

[@rowddyone3570]

What we are at a recession?

[@thetiredtourist3927]

oooohhhh noooo

[@tauronval1404]

Omg omg omg sell everything! Sooner or later we get it right!👌🏻 Bullshit it’ normal at some point will be a recession…

[@RestfulSlumber]

Conclusion -who knows?

[@quentinjohannes8396]

What are we calling the current recession?

[@bjohns347347]

Great choice for an interview. Also please consider Lyn Alden.

[@scott-gy6fe]

How will a recession affect House hack?

[@IraSavatgy]

AI isn't gonna cause deflation, I mean it will, but the feds target is always above zero. This is why real inflation is way higher than they say it is. Prices should naturally be decreasing from automation but the money printer keeps them from doing so

[@TiagoRamosVideos]

👌🙏

[@dialecticalmonist3405]

"Recession" is a meaningless word. These rich people have no idea we HAVE BEEN IN A RECESSION because they go off to eat and fill their gas tanks and go on vacation like it's nothing. They look at numbers to determine "recession", but these numbers are all meaningless nonsense because the definitions have been altered. But none of this affects their lives, so they continue to argue about meaningless terms like "recession".

[@gerardoulloa8320]

Recession this recession that 🙄 just let it happen the more we talk about predictions the more likely we will repeat history just because we tend to be dumb like that. Plus every state has their own policies in regards to everything like for example I doubt in California we will see a huge drop in homes due to the help that Newsom has provided for People. Idk I just feel like more people are making more money and living with family making it harder for them to default on their loans and bills. 🤷🏻‍♂️ we just have to look at every perspective and not just jump into conclusions.

[@giborchayil]

All by design...babylon just babyloning...🤡🌎

[@dattajack]

War recessions are short lived. Economy went up most of the Iraq war no?

[@ClownTrader1]

I thought this was an interview with George. Not you talking about your own interview.

[@JohnJohnCrusher]

Wishful thinking bro

[@nicksaylor3288]

Cash guys are almost always wrong. You miss out on wealth if you purely follow their advice

[@forester057]

Yep this guy has been 100% doom and gloom grifter for 3 years. Stock market meanwhile is straight up.

[@ryanhaney]

You're underestimating AI.

[@saurabhksharma]

Haha 10 year boom cycle, yeah right no chance of that happening before a major financial collapse

[@tr5946]

Did u film this on a potato

[@martinxlive5]

Wth? Did you do your interview in an interigation room?

[@ceezthaday]

A lot of speculation going on here.

[@_schonwald]

Gammon

[@purplerings1969]

This is going to be the real one after the last 11 fake ones recently

[@sagig72]

good video as always. Bottom line: The Fed should cut already, now in Jan (not Mar, certainly not May). It's better for Fed as well as everyone they will NOT be forced to cut 50+ basis points, but can go through a series of 25 basis points cut to create the soft-landing. For that to happen - they should start cutting already before it's too late forcing them to cut more rapidly. It's exactly opposite to them being late on rate hikes which made them go through these rapid hikes! They should learn from that.

[@lyleburlingame2276]

No. Then inflation will take off. We need some more turbulence

[@SMoore-vj7bt]

Fed will not be cutting (or not much or for very long) because of war. Elephant-in-the-living-room that the clown🤡Kevin missed is that supply chains are bottle-necked now.💡We are only two strait blockades away from supply chain disruption up the wazoo.🤦‍♂And China needs to lower their GDP thus needs war as C19 only helped them for 2 years, c.f. How China Trapped Itself by Michael Pettis at Foreign Affairs.

[@oloscarlopez8]

It’s either a recession prediction or ww3 headline from this channel. No wonder the channel views have plummeted

[@sconchee]

Stack that and….drive safe. Elon knew from several feet away. Still brilliant you are, though.