Much Higher Unemployment Next, Market Bubble 'Unprecedented' | Dhaval Joshi

Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist of Counterpoint at BCA Research, discusses the coming impact of monetary policy on the U.S. labor market, as well as the extreme valuation premiums that U.S. stock markets have relative to non-U.S. markets.
*This video was recorded on May 20, 2024
Dhaval's last interview with me: • What Happens When ‘Big...
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0:00 - Intro
1:00 - Market bubble
4:48 - Superstars vs. everyone else
14:00 - Long-term U.S. stocks returns
16:14 - American "exceptionalism"
22:00 - Labor market and recession
30:42 - Gold and Bitcoin
#stocks #economy #investing

[@TheDavidLinReport]

Will you be allocating assets outside U.S. markets? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe! Dhaval's last interview with me: kzbin.info/www/bejne/h3zRZX6tbap5pM0si=L3d199SFkIqQOie5 FOLLOW BCA RESEARCH: Website: www.bcaresearch.com/ Twitter (@bcaresearch): twitter.com/bcaresearch

[@borisdodgingbullets]

Yes. 95% of my assets (rental real estate, physical gold, and equities (mostly energy and commodities)) are now outside the U.S.

[@CoolestGuyInTheRoom]

10% can be allocated to 3 very solid ETfs covering foreign the need for foreign exposure.

[@Theresaa12]

I was recently laid off from Twitter, which has been tough. Thankfully, I saved about $600K and am looking to invest it in the stock market to generate dividends for my monthly expenses.

[@RickWatson-xu6gw]

Thats when you hire someone to manage your money. You need a financial-advis0r straight up! Even while $600k might seem like much, one bad decision might seriously deplete it.

[@benitabussell5053]

A good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisors in exploring new markets, but over the past 10years I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure.

[@Debbie.Burton]

I've been considering but haven't been proactive. Can you recommend your advisor? Could really use some assistance.

[@benitabussell5053]

*Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

[@ConstanceSperl]

I don’t know how but you’ve managed to package an unbiased analysis that is more entertaining than the sensationalized segment of economic and financial news. Thank you for your efforts to be the signal and not the noise. I understand that the economy is currently in a downturn and that we must wait for things to get better

[@AlexzanderMckenzie]

As hard as it may sound you can plan for the recession. If you are working, find extra work and get an Invest--advisor. Protect your deposits by having enough cash in short term fixed income. Then cut your expenses. Minimal insurance, cut utilities.

[@SterlingSingler]

Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.

[@Hannaa22]

Even if you have a humongous income you still need to draw up futuristic plans because anything can happen. One could lose one's job or whatever. Investment cannot be overemphasized. About your advisor, how does one reach pls

[@SterlingSingler]

My CFA Camille Anne Hector, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

[@Hannaa22]

I promptly did some research on her. She can control herself well. Her credentials are solid, and it seems like she was the subject of a careful examination. Foreign investors from countries other than the United States can also use her services

[@Aarrenrhonda3]

The stock market rise is finished, but I'm not sure if stocks will immediately rebound, continue to fall or swing in a narrow range for a few weeks, or if things will drastically deteriorate. I'm feeling pressed to increase my $450k reserve.

[@Peterl4290]

It is more difficult to build a good financial portfolio, so I recommend that you seek professional assistance. You will then obtain methods that are tailored to your How does one go about finding a capable FA? I appreciate the notion of using their services, but it's too bad that stock market meltdowns have recently become commonplace.

[@larrypaul-cw9nk]

That is correct! You don't have to be a perfect investor; all you need to do is seek assistance from an expert. Despite having no prior investment experience, I began investing in 2016 and profited almost $900k that year.

[@sabastinenoah]

How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?

[@larrypaul-cw9nk]

Her name is “Vivian Carol Gioia” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like

[@sabastinenoah]

I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to send a mail to her and let you know how it goes.Thanks for sharing truly!

[@deanmyers453]

Gold will be the last man standing with silver boots on !

[@SuperPowderpig]

15% of employees work for profitable companies while 85% of employees work for struggling businesses.

[@maxangeles6279]

I don't see the booming economy in the USA???? where is it???

[@Angry_Bob]

I think it’s all on the fantastic 7. Which imo runs 100% on technicals.

[@HoneyBadger80886]

​@Angry_Bob we're not part of the 1%. "Our" booming is eating under a roof.

[@gaminglikeapro2104]

Booming in the US means a month-away from homelessness so a good 80+% of Americans are booming.

[@joechan8549]

Only on TV and the pump and dump stockmarket, if McDonald, stark, target have big problems, you know we are in Recession. 70% of people living from paycheck to paycheck

[@ZenStrive52]

​@@Angry_Bob mechanicals you meant? I think if it's technicals there would be a prolonged bearish period for now

[@darrenphilip247]

My spouse and I are adding a variety of stocks/ETF to my present holdings for the long term, We've set aside $250k to start following inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, I believe it is a good time to capitalize on the market for long-term gains, but it wouldn't hurt to know means of actualizing short term.

[@leedavis3639]

We have learnt in investing journey that you can't control the market but you have the power to control your actions in the market.

[@MooreScott-hd5fz]

Even with the right technique and assets some investors would still make more than others, as an investor, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again.

[@finleysterling562]

That's correct. At first, I wasn't too pleased with my gains compared to my previous performances, I was doing so poorly, I thought I needed to diversify into better assets, so I got in touch with an investment-advisor. That same year, I pulled a net gain of 550k, which is about 10 times more than I average on.

[@darrenphilip247]

How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?.

[@finleysterling562]

Ethan Grayson is one of the finest portfolio managers in the field. He's widely recognized; you should look him up.

[@saltydog1196]

Can't fix a ponzi! This will end badly! 😢

[@sudo2998]

He's got an interesting point about AI versus networking. Networking was such a force multiplier for social media (along with faster internet speeds), but AI so far is specific to this company versus that. 🤔

[@joechan8549]

Ai can only make money $20.00 for Chat Get Plus, more like Netflix but Netflix do not have to buy 40,000 Ai nvidia chips.

[@ironmikehallowween]

I didn’t realize there was a market outside the US. Who knew?

[@deanmyers453]

lol

[@graceamsterdam5404]

What would be a cue for the crypto to arrive? Rate increases? Serious gov spending reduction?

[@mattg8431]

We've heard this many times, but the market keeps going up

[@MikhailFromUSA]

Tired of waiting

[@trailguy]

Then it simply must be time to buy! lol. The market keeps going up because the government keeps juicing the economy with a trillion dollars of deficit spending every 100 days. Gold knows this.

[@prolific1518]

Just like the establishment is changing the mortgage refinance rules, the establishment will prop the market until Biden's reelection. All this is fraudulent vote buying

[@valuetainer3437]

don't worry, the collapse will come, the only thing you need to pay attention to is the 2 vs 10 Year yield, they are still inverted, btw, the longest inversion EVER, this is a brand new RECORD, what does that mean? That the recession will be as bad or even worse than 2008, maybe the worst since 1929, I don't know what the central planners will do to mitigate that, maybe launch a Worldwar3? a CBDC? Some black swan event where it would justify doing some absurd thing. If the curve is still inverted it means the recession hasn't hit with full force yet, you need to wait for it to uninvert (the so called bull steepener in the yield curve) and then mark 5 months down the line, that's when stuff hits the fan if this stays inverted for 2 more years guess what? The bull market will continue for 2 more years! But this won't be inverted forever

[@c.m.c2024]

⁠@@valuetainer3437it isn’t the worst ever. It was 700 days or so inverted in 1929. I think in the next month or so we will pass 2008 in inversion and will have then been the longest since 1929. They have no plans to cut anytime soon. If they wait till November I think it will be past 700 day inversion.

[@ramsineivaz]

Love how thoughtful and intelligent Dhaval is with responding obviously his brain is operating at a different level!

[@ntfsntfs5282]

I found his answers too difficult to understand. Maybe it is a curse of knowledge of his, trying to sieze the unseizable. Try figure out the answer to this question 24:24. He was asked on skilled vs non-skilled labor. While answering age and COVID suddenly pop up

[@graceamsterdam5404]

A question re companies doing better outside the USA: so companies who work world wide (customers) are the saver bet? Then we are back at the Mag4-5 and NVidia.

[@SD-gw5vm]

Amazing interview. This guy had me glued to the video the whole time

[@issenvan1050]

What is a shorter-term complexity?

[@NotPoliticallyCorrect407]

Correlation between company buy backs and stock market highs might be a good indicator 🤔

[@kenselin]

ABSOLUTELY! Ken, Toronto, CANADA

[@user-br2zp3bk6f]

I know quite a few people who are 50+ who voluntarily left the workforce during COVID. But, they are finding that when they apply for jobs, they get very few interviews and no job offers. Not sure if it is softening of the job market in IT or if it is a little bit of age discrimination where companies prefer to hire younger/cheaper resources.

[@user-ys5qp4bq4s]

Costco north of 50x P/E, PG more expensive than LVMH... This is Nifty Fifties bubble 3.0(2.0 being late 90s)

[@ZenStrive52]

So many dollars being liberated from bonds seeking to live somewhere, so why not gold and the market

[@joechan8549]

My friends have a hard time finding good jobs, even then said there are 10 jobs for each person.

[@TruthMovementIsCool]

Very sensible

[@graceamsterdam5404]

Would the higher end of the labour gap not be filled by generative AI supply? (Ofcourse the same goes for manual work that can be robotized). So… many what ifs. Exciting times ahead.

[@issenvan1050]

How should BTC behave during a recession?

[@TOMinPDX]

If the stock market goes down bitcoin will go down.

[@friendlychat34]

​This was certainly true in 2022 when tech crashed but have the bitcoin ETFs changed all this? Will Bitcoin truly function as digital gold next time? I honestly don't know. ​@@TOMinPDX

[@Sam-uj3qh]

What a fantastic guest!

[@gfght210]

If I took a shot of whiskey every time this guy said “sort of” I would’ve died from alcohol poisoning 10 minutes into this discussion.

[@andrewstewart7425]

I like his take. Well done.

[@Elsa-qy9hr]

"99.99% of companies haven't done particularly well." Do you see the game here? Have you not REALIZED YET that 'they' are bloodsucking the majority of investors, while a tiny few are gaining everything?

[@Chuck68ify]

The GDP isn't much good for anything, per capita and ajusted for inflation may help.

[@user-of3gn9lr9d]

Focusing on presales for the best returns. Revux is my top pick!

[@ampiciline]

David , there is a huge dichotomy in your guest argument .... He says: " labor supply" is dropping in much higher rate compared to "labor demand" and as result we are having sticky inflation or high inflation THEN , he added ; "Generative AI "is NOT going to be acting like web. 2 effect , as far as profitability for magnificent -7 . Well, what your guess is missing is that " Generative AI" WILL be drastically increasing " labor supply " by X 10 , without needing a human being ( labor participation or immigration ) doctors , teachers , uber drivers , truck drivers , pharmacists, soft ware engineers , CPA and pilots , flight attendants and so many other jobs or labor supply) will be replaced by generative AI VERY easily AND filling up the GAP between ( labor supply and labor demand ) ..you see the huge dichotomy in his argument .

[@ampiciline]

@@Arteshir lol

[@unreal513]

Legit guest

[@RAHANHussain-Sk]

Swapped my alts for BTC and Revux. This presale is a no-brainer!

[@kishorgurjar5652]

BTC and Revux are my main holds, maybe adding some ETH.

[@michaelbananas461]

Can somebody please correct me..but it seems obvious why the US is an outlier in terms of its reported recent economic performance... firstly, unlike most other countries, most borrowers in the US are on longer term fixed rates, which means there would be a lag with the higher cost of borrowing or refinancing...and secondly, unlike most other countries, the US is going bananas with fiscal spending... Its a bit like the whole world was on a inflation drug high, and the rest of the world took sleeping pills and passed out..but the US has both continued the drug binge and taken a zoloft to take the edge off. Are we supposed to believe that this party animals continuous partying is a sign of strength?? No, you dont look at the drug addict with dilated pupils 3 days into a bender without sleep and think "wow, this person is in so much better shape than those folks who took an uber home and passed out on the couch"

[@Chuck68ify]

That's a good one!😅

[@chefandy72]

Immigration has been a race without a direction. Productivity will trump immigration. And a real discussion about displacement, the majority of immigration has been unskilled and on the side burner a discussion about education being a public institution and not an industry.

[@NikulZala-fn3cm]

Revux is shaping up to be the best ICO this year. Get in early!

[@berhanegebriel3155]

Have you ñoticed that the big arçh m is upside down in every store júst like Justice Alitto's US flag?

[@user-qz8ow6qn5o]

Expecting Revux to go 100x once it’s live on Binance.

[@defunctuserchannel]

DAVID: We haven't left. No one will hire us.

[@bassocantante51]

NO JAB/ NO JOB PRIVATE SECTOR NEW YORK IS STILL IN EFFECT… CONTRACTORS ARE BLACKBALLED FROM GETTING WORK W/OUT CLOT-SHOT

[@chrismcconkey9543]

When will people understand that relative valuations and PE ratios mean nothing anymore . The asset prices reflect the debasement of currency. It’s not that complicated. If you want to sit around and wait for PE ratios of 11 you’re going to be waiting one hell of a long time

[@bdek68]

Of course they don’t matter? Not does the inverted yield curve, the LEI, two consecutive quarters of negative gdp. What matters is the deficit spending, endless QE, bailouts, while ruining our future generations and their prosperity! Nonsense

[@user_anamika0]

Insider tip: Revux is going places. Don’t miss out!

[@omkarsuryawanshi333]

Revux is the hot topic in my crypto chats. Rising star for sure!

[@haze1123]

Excellent guest!!!

[@prempremdevil4740]

Betting Revux will pump before XRP does.

[@levratalex4929]

Great content

[@graceamsterdam5404]

I am listening for like 5 min and I already like the nuanced thinking. Keep up the quality ! 🙏🏼

[@JLamont45]

HuH??!!

[@scepisle4970]

Bitcoin.......

[@CoolestGuyInTheRoom]

Only guy on the planet without a Twitter, solid content though. Very insightful 💯

[@TB-LivingFree]

LeaveAnyComment &ThumbUp 4AIgos

[@deanchristie3829]

Exceptionalism: UK in the 1930's; the European economies were destroyed during WWI.

[@RD-kz4wr]

Worker supply under demand? Is this 2022? Cause it's opposite today mr Joshi! More unemployment = supply in employment is not above demand lmfao.

[@Tracytriangle]

Dollar milkshake theory 🥛

[@prolific1518]

That guy is a delusional goofy

[@thehungergames8918]

ETH 💪🏻💪🏻🙋🏻💁‍♂️

[@Heshkinp]

Good speaker

[@jimmyhumania]

The guy has no idea about bitcoin, let alone crypto 🤭

[@nadruik9890]

He had me till he started predicting bitcoin 6 figures, with all his other analysis this made no sense at all as bitcoin trades on liquidity only as it has no actual value itself completely debunking his first 30m sentiment.

[@maxangeles6279]

good speaker here.

[@tomkarnes69]

In there 50's venerable to the sniffles OMG, get over it. If in fact you drank the Covid Koolaid and lined up for the jab, abandon all hope

[@patrickpontee7985]

This interview is very confusing.

[@Heshkinp]

Maybe its a you issue, one of the best guests in a while

[@kenselin]

I agree. ONE OF THE AXIOMS OF HIS THINKING is the USA is still, a great rich nation and NOT A FINANCIAL BASKET CASE LOST IN THE WILDS because of THE BUCKET OVER ITS HEAD. (Ha! Ha!) Ken, Toronto, CANADA

[@Notaslave1961]

David get out of here! The Hair is orbital 😊out of this world! 🧑‍🚀

[@justinwiedeman5017]

You totally lost me. The logic goes in circles. Nomarly I will be nice and thankyou. Not this BS David.

[@MileyHumphrey-ql4jp]

What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.

[@Joseph-zw3sb]

Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out.

[@Joseph-zw3sb]

I searched for her full name online, found her page, and sent an email to schedule a meeting. Hopefully, she responds soon. Thank you

[@DVan-ew3il]

David, please interview Tom Lee. He is very smart

[@user-eb3pi4tv9k]

He really isnt, but he does look like an Asian Elton John😂

[@prolific1518]

Just a pumper being carried by Biden. He says nothing important.

[@cm-uy6ec]

David you devil, get harry (the bearish cat) dent back on

[@user-eb3pi4tv9k]

This guy is smoking something

[@Stefanie-qj7lw]

Lately i got interested in crypto but has no idea how to go about it. Can anyone Help with a reliable tra-der?

[@wiamlaamoumri2375]

I think all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fees attached

[@wiamlaamoumri2375]

Evelyn Turner is the professional that guides me and her optimal returns are really impressive

[@Nathan-om8es]

Yeah, I believe investing with a professional is the optimal approach, as it mitigates the risk of significant losses. Did you genuinely know her? I was under the impression that I was the sole beneficiary of her guidance through the challenges of trading.

[@Sofia32872]

Seeing a remark regarding my manager Evelyn Turner is quite energizing. It was just like this when I first met her a few weeks ago. Having started with just 4k about 2-3 weeks ago, I have already made it to 21 k. She is very remarkable!

[@melissaziglar6620]

Goodness gracious I'm so excited seeing Ms. Evelyn Turner been mentioned here also. Didn't know she has been good to other people too, this is wonderful because I also started with a KZbin referral like this

[@Claytrz]

Another doomer video from david lol go figures

[@patriciomora9663]

Buy, buy, buy

[@HoneyBadger80886]

​@@Arteshirno one invited you.

[@HoneyBadger80886]

​@@patriciomora9663in truth, I have been saving all my life. Only now it's not fiat trash in the bank. I save in #bitcoin & PMs.

[@Mark-pb8kj]

Do you really think everything is going to be okay? I dont have a normalcy bias so I don't know

[@TEAMSGAKASHGAMER]

For the bull run: DOT, FIL, SOL. Best ICO? Definitely Revux.

[@issenvan1050]

How should BTC behave during a recession?

[@HoneyBadger80886]

It's not a dollar derivative. It's got It's own path. It's separation of Money and State now. Buy a little NonETF bitcoin and self custody. In 10 years you'll be glad you did.

[@davidjaylaw1920]

NSA paper How to Make a Mint: The Cryptography of Anonymous Electronic Cash from 1996 explaining the concept of SHA-256? Cryptographer on the NSA paper named Tatsuaki Okamoto/vs. Satoshi Nakamoto and their Obvious similarities? An Enviromentally friendly Blockchain 'computer game' that needs to use 200 Billion kilowatt-hours of Electricity/ 117 million barrels of oil per year? Chivo Wallet rolled out in 2021 in El Salvador, with currently less than 1% of business transactions actually being completed using BTC? The Greedy push for SEC approval to monitor & control Several Spot ETF'S operated by the likes of Deceptive Black Rock, Fidelity & VanEck? BTC was supposed to provide Stable, Affordable, Secure and Fast transactions, and it's currently failing to provide the majority of these qualities. Is BTC really the Monetary Savior for humanity? or yet another NSA/CIA psy-op playing off of our GREED to gain trust/acceptance into crypto, only to intentionally crash BTC and eventually usher everyone into their state mandated Safe and Effective Dystopian CBDC? If only JFK's head was still here to help explain it more clearly to us all...

[@davidjaylaw1920]

BUTTcoin a Limited Supply of Absolutely NOTHING

[@davidjaylaw1920]

NSA paper How to Make a Mint: The Cryptography of Anonymous Electronic Cash from 1996 explaining the concept of SHA-256? Cryptographer on the NSA paper named Tatsuaki Okamoto/vs. Satoshi Nakamoto and their Obvious similarities? An Enviromentally friendly Blockchain 'computer game' that needs to use 200 Billion kilowatt-hours of Electricity/ 117 million barrels of oil per year? Chivo Wallet rolled out in 2021 in El Salvador, with currently less than 1% of business transactions actually being completed using BTC? The Greedy push for SEC approval to monitor & control Several Spot ETF'S operated by the likes of Deceptive Black Rock, Fidelity & VanEck? BTC was supposed to provide Stable, Affordable, Secure and Fast transactions, and it's currently failing to provide the majority of these qualities. Is BTC really the Monetary Savior for humanity? or yet another NSA/CIA psy-op playing off of our GREED to gain trust/acceptance into crypto, only to intentionally crash BTC and eventually usher everyone into their state mandated Safe and Effective Dystopian CBDC? If only JFK's head was still here to help explain it more clearly to us all...

[@davidjaylaw1920]

BUTTcoin a Limited Supply of Absolutely NOTHING