As India’s red hot economy set to be world no. 3, reality check on how it stacks up with China, US

#cuttheclutter #indianeconomy
There’s much celebration around the fact that India is now the 5th largest economy in the world, ahead of the likes of the UK. IMF projections see India climbing two notches higher within the decade, leaving behind Japan and Germany. But how exactly does India compare with its regional rival China, which is currently the 2nd biggest economy in the world? Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta offers some data to explain the economic strides India has made, where it stands, and just how reasonable its comparisons with the US and China are. Ep 1266 of Cut The Clutter.
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[@shubhamsonawane3432]

Title says works no 3 !! Correction required

[@ahmedkhan-bi8lv]

Why no episode on titan submarine implosion yet?

[@debashislaha1313]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/r4itqXh8l95nmJY

[@gautamdevchakravarty8207]

When comparing GDP it's okay to compare with nominal GDP but when using per capita income we should consider GDP PPP per capita as most of the consumption is domestic only, after all a burger in US costs far higher than that in India (If just the nominal prices are seen)

[@Vshwdkshnh]

First, Uncle Gupta is taking Chinese GDP numbers at its face value. But China is world’s No 2 economy. Considering, in 1995 Japan was $5T and today its $4.8T due to real estate and now demographics crisis. China has both things hitting them at larger scale and same time. China will never cross $15T. Currently, China GDP is between $10-12T, 2nd largest for sure. Growth of China is over. It is upto India how they take advantage of that, and I have full faith that India will never loose and opportunity to loose and opportunity, and forever be in lower income trap.😵‍💫

[@souvikdey5422]

65% of Indians involved in agriculture contributing to only 12% of our total GDP.... agricultural policy reforms are essential to put India into double digit growth trajectory

[@praveenkaurwar3188]

Farm Laws were so necessary

[@sid8285]

Farm Laws were the essential reform needed which has been trashed forever now.

[@iamghani]

Yes, giving importance to agriculture, introducing laws, introducing education degrees and getting the technology and machinery creating dams and irrigation canals will solve two issues. Increase in economy & climate challenge. Soon world will run out off food and food security is going to be bigger challenge in 2300. India must be prepared. Food is going to modern fuel. Lands are not going be to fertile like before. Production reduces and demand will increase.

[@adityarajeshwakade8279]

Poor coverage of farm laws. Media only showed protests not the meaning of the LAW!!

[@deus_ex_machina_]

@@iamghani Small scale check dams will harvest rainwater without drowning land and displacing communities like large dams do, and soil must also be preserved by preventing erosion and curtailing tilling and overuse of chemicals.

[@Erinmills98]

I don’t know how but you’ve managed to package an unbiased analysis that is more entertaining than the sensationalized segment of economic and financial news. Thank you for your efforts to be the signal and not the noise. I understand that the economy is currently in a downturn and that we must wait for things to get better.

[@simonbad]

As hard as it may sound you can plan for the recession. If you are working, find extra work and get an Investment advisor. Protect your deposits by having enough cash in short term fixed income. Then cut your expenses, minimal insurance, cut utilities.

[@IrenaDolinsek]

@@simonbad I think the current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner. that's why i enjoy my day to day market decisions being guided by a portfolio-coach and for over 2years+ and I've netted over $800k.

[@AstaKristjan]

@@IrenaDolinsek Even if you have a humongous income you still need to draw up futuristic plans because anything can happen. One could lose one's job or whatever. Investment cannot be overemphasized. About your advisor, how does one reach pls?

[@IrenaDolinsek]

@@AstaKristjan Jennifer Puckett Hunter She's a reputable tutor who showed me that profits can be produced in both bull and downturn markets. She talks about investing, insurance, making sure your retirement is well-funded, and searching for methods to create a volatility buffer for investment risk, among other topics.

[@krishnapillai2595]

@@simonbad For truth, see ‘China Uncensored’ ‘Serpentza’ ‘laowhy86’ ‘The China Show’ ‘China Insights’ ‘Lei’s Real Talk’ ‘The International Insider’ ‘China Observer’

[@karthik7486]

The citizens need to start behaving like citizens of a big economy now. We Indians are infamous for our indiscipline and uncleanliness. We need to change that primarily. Describing cities as beautiful chaos is just a backhanded compliment. So we all need to change at an individual level first. The country will develop on its own.

[@Tom-fw6bx]

How? Hike for 1000 mile to home?

[@killstreak4767]

​​@@Tom-fw6bxe's asking for a behavioural change not any cost related change.. Suppose you come last in your class but if your attitude will be like the topper, you'll automatically perform in a better way

[@ExploreIndia_ByRajeev]

Exactly these habits make the society better and functional, discipline is what created developed economies in the west and Japan,Korea,China, but in india everyone does what he wants to do, and hurt the economic prospects of a country . If People accept disciplined lifestyle ,good education and mindset change to businesses and manufacturing rather doing jobs .

[@krisgopi_8]

@@ExploreIndia_ByRajeev agreed but if you notice and observe Indian people, most of them instead of getting matured in the age of technology n internet are not putting efforts to evolve to sync with times. And we are massively populated country. At one point I had said earlier in our country people take more time , much more than what was expected to mature because India is the land of recycled people.

[@raunak7461]

For this change we need to become 10 trilionn dollar economy in 2030

[@kortyEdna825]

Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.

[@shannonsally455]

My main concern now is how can we generate more revenue during quantitative times? I can't afford to see my savings crumble to dust.

[@carssimplified2195]

@tudorrwilson That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?

[@carssimplified2195]

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[@ravinunna1168]

I'm not sure about other states but in Telangana I really see the difference. I'm from a small village in Telangana and I see huge difference in the people's living standards as of today when compared with year 2010. Almost all the old houses in my village a demoslised and people are constructing beautiful minimum 2 bed room homes with marble floor, sealing. When I climb my roof and see houses nearby almost all the houses have atleast one AC. Some have 2. I'm seeing cars moving around all the time in the streets which I never imagined. In 2010 only 1 or 2 homes had a car. Now I'm 30 years old. When I was in my 10th standard, which was exactly 15 years ago, I remember when people used to request us to use our land line phone, some would request us for ice cubes from our fridge and some even borrowed mixer grinders to prepare Dosa and Idly batter. But today there is no house in my village without these electronic items. People's living standards increased a lot. Edit: Telangana GDP per capita is already $4,000 which is 3Lakhs+. India average per capita is Low because of states like Bihar, UP, WB, MP, Jharkhand and Rajasthan. I know UP started attracting huge investments under Yogi govt and is going in right direction. But the remaining states are not doing much to attract investments.😞

[@wayfaringstranger579]

Jai telangana!

[@NoMustang273]

Irrespective of all this competition we are still doing a good job in improving our own lives. In 15-20 years this country will be a much nicer place to live than it is today. We should ultimately celebrate how much of a difference we're making.

[@Butunmallick7851]

It's everywhere,it's bcz things have become cheap even though we say inflation is high

[@deepomouli]

Yes,the only relevant comparison is with our own past.As long as we continue to do that we are doing fine.

[@ddsharma9793]

Absolutely Telangana is doing extremely well. It's all due to quality of human resources Telangana possess.🙏

[@pspsdan]

If USA has high inflation then its nominal GDP increases, if India has high inflation then the rupee will depreciate and nullify India's nominal GDP growth. Thats the advantage of USA having dollar as reserve currency.

[@harrisonamerican2371]

Yeah u got it

[@AKumar-co7oe]

US can also do it only up to a point. There's a possibility that over printing leads to devaluation for them as well - but the threshold for them is higher. UK faced this recently where they thought they could get away with reserve-currency-like behaviour and ended up depreciating by 20%+

[@patelaakash267]

@@AKumar-co7oeit’s already happened. The inflation on milk, bread, and eggs is 76%.

[@subhmaypatra5562]

But he's talking about Real GDP growth and not Nominal GDP

[@pspsdan]

@@subhmaypatra5562 that is nominal GDP number he is talking about from IMF WEO 2023 database.... PPP wise India is rapidly reducing the gap.

[@victordashmohapatra3546]

GDP per capita is reflection of Individual Productivity, in West if a company aims to 2x its production they hire more machines, in India if a company aims to 2x its production we hire more people. Amount of work done per person hasn't changed.

[@rajx7120]

Lol! You think, it is easy to hire 2X people in India? Our labour laws, make it harder, to build factories greater than 100 workers. New labour codes increase it to 300. But for Bangladesh, the size is 1000.

[@Arvindchauhan-qv6gd]

​@@rajx7120a complete crap...

[@TheUndertaker2408]

We cannot hire machines. India needs to generate employment at Large scale.

[@tubusingh]

​@@TheUndertaker2408India has not developed because of such primitive socialist ideas....You increase new opportunities there in the free Market for employment... you create a large talent pool...but you don't employ 1000 people in a single company where requirement is of 100 people...And to increase production capacity, quality, productivity and to maintain global standards and compete with the globe, you have to acquire machines.... you must adapt machinary and automation in key sectors in this fast changing world...If you don't adapt new ideas and new technologies and new form of income sources and employment opportunities, you will simply die in this highly competitive globalized free Market because of lack of productivity and adaptability...

[@arindambaisya]

@@tubusingh That's exactly right! Socialist ideas like these have their hearts in the right place, but completely miss the point. Automation and scalability are what India needs.

[@siddhubabaji]

Hope we Indian's remember that we have a very bad habit of celebrating before real victory, & indeed we should be happy about our growth but also remember and always remember that we need to keep working very hard to keep increasing the growth rate of our country.

[@RoamingDoctors]

We should celebrate as it gives positivity. Only positive attitude towards life will make us progress. Others will hv more GDP growth due to their large economy. So their little growth with cause more GDP change.. but we indians will catch fast as more n more women are gng to work. PPL are investing education..

[@deus_ex_machina_]

@@RoamingDoctors Optimism should be tempered with realism. Female labour force participation is lower now than decades ago, and we could be heading into a middle income trap, where our labour becomes too expensive for cheap manufacturing, but productivity and skills aren't enough to become a high-income country.

[@urrasscal8380]

yeah! should had done popul. xchange after 47' partition, premature celebration of independence was the main fault .....iindia's main problem is iislamb , 2nd economy ( need double digit growth) 3rd unemployment 4th defense preparedness 5th embrace full capitalism with robust regularity system 6th massive investment in R & D and infrastructure & etc.

[@Butunmallick7851]

@@deus_ex_machina_ u want a country employed or females employed?first come out of these exclusive traps

[@Maverick-zo4kc]

India remained weak and poor for a long time because of KHANgress party's disastrous economic policies. And yes, it is right that China is way ahead of India currently but it is not impossible to catch up with China. We can do it. We are heading in the right direction.

[@carlorodriguez771]

With changes in the economy leading to instability in the stock market, some individuals may face a decrease in their investments in an effort to benefit from the current market conditions, I am considering liquidating my $725k portfolio consisting of bonds and stocks. Someone else in the same situation? Please tell me in the comments!..

[@Reymason317]

would suggest you thoroughly evaluate the companies you have invested in and their estimated future performance, as we may expect to see the market decline further. To minimize stress and improve efficiency, it might be wise to seek the assistance of an investment advisor to help restructure your portfolio and identify any underperforming investments to offset. This approach has been successful for me and has reduced my stress levels.

[@carlorodriguez771]

@@Reymason317 I have been exploring the possibility of utilizing advisors to help navigate the stock market during these uncertain times. However, I am still evaluating their potential effectiveness in providing the support I need.

[@Reymason317]

@@carlorodriguez771 Christy Val D'souza is an esteemed coach known for her proficiency in her area of expertise. You probably might have come across her. I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and i reached out to her afterwards. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can carry out a quick internet research on her name for more info. I basically follow her market moves and haven’t regretted doing so...

[@carlorodriguez771]

@@Reymason317 I was considering changing my investment strategy and planning to sell certain positions. As my retirement is coming soon,I became increasingly stressed. After thoroughly researching Christy Val D'souza on internet, I concluded that I had made an informed decision. Thank you for this Pointer. She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her too.

[@mg.f.9023]

India importing value added goods from China and exporting raw materials to China tells the whole story.

[@madleon81]

Ask Pappu what MoU he signed

[@TheSoLuna2]

Yeah, when Congress decided to reward China with an access of Indian market, it killed Indian msme. Look no further than Sivakasi. However, that is ending and our MSMEs have rebounded. Eventually, we will see lower exports from China. Another thing - India is doing small value adds to components we are importing from China. Until we catch up, this story is here to stay.

[@Sagar251291]

China also imports raw materials (like commodities or metals) before they create the materials needed for finished products in India. Instead of looking at just the consolidated value, rather observe the Gross Value Add for that product i.e. the amount of money value that your supply chain component added to the final product. (India's Value Add is around 18% for mobile phones as per Goldman Sachs analysis). The focus hence should be how can more value adding processes are done in India like Fabrication, Research in Chip Design & IPR and not low value add like mining or purification etc.

[@wionporky9937]

​ Dose Indian got the capability to replicate or excel what the Chinese had done?

[@Butunmallick7851]

@@madleon81 we can't blame any party🙄it's the system we live where babus want to sit ND eat

[@sudhirnayak8086]

There appears to be an obsession with comparing with other economies in Indian media. The focus should be on improving the GDP per capita, poverty numbers, human development indices, life expectancy, pollution metrics etc. These appear to be rarely discussed.

[@nln729]

Well said, still large part of population had to live on free ration. So all these figures of growth of no sense if the fruits of growth is not reflected in the people’s lives.

[@tito98496]

100%

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

Let's be realistic. India will never be a developed country in it's lifetime. Even if India grows, it will get stuck in the middle income trap forever. India will also face major resource shortage due to overpopulation and face the wrath of climate change. India's resource base isn't large enough to support an economy too large either. Also the West and China can sabotage India in a jiffy if it grows too much. Also most Indians don't have unity and are still backward minded and tribalistic. Corruption and being unethical has become so deep rooted that it's become impossible to fix it. Also, the number of talented Indians leaving India is increasing at an alarming rate every year and many of these Indians who left India brag about India being the next big thing which is extremely comedic. The most mind boggling thing is that even if God comes down from heaven and says that India will never be a developed country, pa jeets will call him anti Indian and continue living in their fantasy of India being a developed country. To conclude, India may improve in some areas, but it always stay a corrupt 3rd world uncivilized sh8hole. Hence, forget your dreams of being a developed country pa jeets. India is an utterly failed experiment. Adios

[@sanju-rm7vy]

I have failed to understand the reason for ctc . Either you want us to apologize for celebrating for reaching five trillion economy or look at China and USA with awe . In the end you want the government to take a deep breath and say we have nothing to celebrate . But has the government stopped working on economy ? Have we stopped improving on economy . If so your ctc is praiseworthy .

[@rag12307]

100% correct, per capita income is what matters. Many really work very hard here for very less money, it’s becoming impossible to lead a family in cities with such high housing costs and high taxes going to state governments and they are providing sub standard facility

[@Kortneylove-1]

My number one money rule is "diversification" and funny enough, I learned this late, almost too late. You must never put all your eggs in one basket. As one who has been into Real Estates for as long as I can remember, I made my first million earlier this year from stocks alone (used the services of an expert though). I also experiment with a couple of other things. Imagine what the situation would have been given the current housing market if I were solely banking on it. Goodluck to us all!

[@danielchen2857]

...Very sound and realistic... I am also a victim of this... Recently lost a lot in the FTX saga... You mentioned using pros, if its not a problem. do you mind telling who or recommending a good one? I could definitely use the help of one right now... I look forward to you replying...

[@savedhayden]

facts only

[@Kortneylove-1]

@@danielchen2857 Funny enough, I can honestly relate. I don't know if I am permitted to go into details on who I worked with but his name is "Adam Abraham Keith" and you could look him up. I'm not so sure he takes on new people right now, but you could try.

[@titanjack3118]

@@Kortneylove-1 casually strolled into this thread and boom, I know this smallish man. Once attended a fundraiser he was also in attendance here in Vancouver,, calm looking man with with a funny accent,, He's in the States though, I doubt he works with non residents,,,

[@danielchen2857]

@@Kortneylove-1 thanks

[@sandeepvk]

_We compare ourselves with China just like Pakistan compares themselves with India_ :)

[@AKumar-co7oe]

at least we are now growing faster than china consistently

[@Myanmartiger921]

Pakistan is a akula class failed state which cant pay for its underwear(as machinery is imported) or petrol since 1971 50 years even before than it paid for it by American aid and Bangladeshi export money.

[@poushalinag7942]

​@@AKumar-co7oeChina is 17 trillion economy and still growing by 5.2%. In their peak, they were growing 10, 12% whereas India is just growing at 6,7% at its peak.

[@JitzyJT]

@@AKumar-co7oe bruh!!! China peaked over 12% during it's prime.......That too consistently for years

[@TheUndertaker2408]

@@poushalinag7942india has grown 10 percent during congress rule of mr. Singh

[@mailtorajrao]

It's a bit obvious Indian economy can not be compared with US & China. It's not a fair comparison... That in the last 5 to 10 years it has done excellent work in digital & physical infra & spaces to propel to be a future middle income economy (That a UPA2 type govt will set everything back by 5-10 years is also a certainty)

[@vineethg6259]

Perhaps you should try comparing GDP growth rates in UPA years and Modi years and see if you notice any difference. And, while you are there, check the unemployment statistics too.

[@mailtorajrao]

@@vineethg6259 True but let's compare the GDP Growth numbers after adjusting for inflation.. annual unemployment has largely been flat in the last 30 years (World Bank)

[@betterbhagalpur8837]

SG.. Since you are talking Economy today, there is one metric that is not much discussed You have already presented GDP per capita, as one of the importance metric. 👍🏼👍🏼 One more metric to consider here is Ranking of Countries as per Export. Here India stands at Rank 18. So we might be in Top 5 big Economies, but we are decades away from being an Export Giant. Even tiny Netherlands export is more than twice of India.

[@getquickinternational184]

Thanks for this vital info

[@aarthirajaraman7453]

India is now 5th, we are the 4th largest exporter of automobiles, 7th largest exporter of electronics and 3rd largest exporter of medications

[@rameshpudhucode6862]

If you extrapolate US population to China it is around $117 trillion. German population to China it is around $70 trillion.

[@HarshPatel6293]

Population increase beyond a certain point doesn't result in corresponding economic growth, which is why US and other developed nations are not trying to rapidly increase their population otherwise their standard of living would drastically decrease.

[@wionporky9937]

Yes, there are still plenty of rooms for the Chinese. If the GDP per Capita of Chinese is "Half of US" the Chinese GDP will be bigger than US, Europe and Japan combined. 😮

[@NoMustang273]

​@@HarshPatel6293No one is saying that. They're pointing out how huge their economies would be if they had the same population as China but keeping the high incomes. It shows how far behind we and even China is.

[@DSMEAKASH]

But is it possible for Germany to have a population like us...no So ig your theory is absurd

[@wionporky9937]

@@DSMEAKASH The point He trying to make is India high GDP is because of a huge population and not because she is rich😁

[@rajeshsookram3038]

Yes you are correct. For India to narrow that gap it has to grow at a minimum rate of 10% .

[@vikramganasen]

Sadly can’t see that happen

[@sooryaganesh6370]

For that we need to grow our manufacturing sector, and increase exports

[@Butunmallick7851]

If it was 5-10 yrs ago,it was possible 🤔but now it's nearly impossible bcz if USA ND eu sees us growing so fast they will make changes in rules,involve us in unnecessary conflicts,stop giving developing nation advantages

[@dragonjpt1195]

No that is not enough.. 12-15℅ needed.. Well, currently we are expecting 6.1% for next fiscal year.. Also, the cyclic slowdown to Indian economy is also nearing which occurs in every 4-5 yrs

[@rajendranmuthuru1769]

Thinking of all the corruption taking place everywhere,the system of governments in deep negativity, caste religion incoherent, dishonest politicians and bureaucrats aiming millions of wealth making by any means.India is nowhere near advanced countries.

[@248harish]

It's good when CTC keeps things in perspective. It not only tells us how much we have to change as a country but also as an individual.

[@AA13494]

whenever the govt tries to bring reforms, yeh lefty aa jate hai protest karne.

[@bikramsingh7768]

Yes. Andhbhakts need to start seeing.

[@drindianguru1]

@@AA13494 Why is the right wing so weak that it goes on its knees with small protests. They should have firmly said no.

[@Thoughtflux]

Per capita income matters the most. Income affects happiness. Today we are one of the most unhappiest places on earth. We need to change that.

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

India may grow fast at random points of time, but it will never become an advanced economy. To be an advanced economy you need to have a per capita gdp of $20000, a high hdi rank, strong technological and industrial prowess. Look where India stands in these parameters. Countries like Russia, Malaysia, Mexico and Brazil could not transition to advanced economies and whether China will make it is unknown. If these countries couldn't make it, then there is no way in hell India will become an advanced economy.

[@prayagkumar2242]

India cannot achieve its economic potential without making education accessible to ~350 million dalits and adivasi population. Affordable education and upskilling of most marginalized people is required to enable them to contribute in nation building. We have been wasting big chunk of human capital so far.

[@vijayakumarsamuel7748]

This has been purposely done to keep a section of populace ignorant, and slavish. The business in India wants the Adivasi lands because of its rich mineral wealth but dont want to compensate them , when they try to defend they are called naxals, if NGOs go for their defence tey are called Urban Naxals, Foreign funded terrorists. On the one hand our guys sign up Climate Change Accord but on the other hand we dont mind destruction of our pristine forests call it development to 5T economy.

[@Myanmartiger921]

And healthcare atleast till age of 21 25. Add to that clean water Internet and few more things.

[@prayagkumar2242]

@@Myanmartiger921 Couldn't agree more. I have seen a few examples of educated adivasi youngsters working to make live better (in education and healthcare) in tribal regions of southern Chhattisgarh.

[@fwefhwe4232]

but the problem is that govt run schools have teacher reservations on the basis of caaste (occupied by these daalits and tribals) and they are paid hefty salaries (60k INR per month), equivalent to fancy DPS schools. the only way forward is removing teacher reservations, filtering out bottom 20% of teachers every year (based on board results) and getting fresh recruits. It should show in improved classroom quality. Also, selling off existing govt schools to pvt players is also a good option.

[@GundaDhur-h6p]

@@fwefhwe4232 [but the problem is that govt run schools have teacher reservations on the basis of caaste (occupied by these daalits and tribals)] No, that's not the real problem. The teacher recruitment is highly irregular. There are more hundred thousand single-teacher-government-schools in India. If you conduct an actual survey of all the school teacher's in India, you will find a high representation of upper caste (a.k.a "meritorious") teachers. As compared to UCs there are very few graduates among dalits and tribal communities. The supply itself is less. Same is the case with IITs. Out of ~5200 professors, only 170 are from SC/ST community! That doesn't mean we blame poor quality of research in IITs on upper caste professors. [and they are paid hefty salaries (60k INR per month), equivalent to fancy DPS schools.the only way forward is removing teacher reservations, filtering out bottom 20% of teachers every year (based on board results) and getting fresh recruits.] Salary is not a problem, lack of accountability is. Government school teachers are highly unionised. This method of filtering of "bottom" 20% teachers is highly reductionist. Who will guarantee if the top 80% is sincere ? [It should show in improved classroom quality.Also, selling off existing govt schools to pvt players is also a good option.] Poor teaching quality has nothing to do with the caste of the Teacher. lack of proper teacher training, abysmal infrastructure is the major issue. Privatization cannot solve everything. Buildling and developing human resource is not same as airline or railway business.

[@anchitdutta3627]

I agree with the need for caution in our optimism. But while this serves as a reality check, SC Garg’s article exaggerates it by calling it alarming. There’s nothing alarming about it, because Indias GDP base is way too small. If America even grows at 1.5% their economy would record a greater increase simply because their base in 7X of ours. This fact should keep us Indians humble, but NOT alarmed, like SC Garg liked to put it

[@nacpatil]

Leftists and idiots who follow them are beyond repair in india!

[@amanarya4915]

Totally agreed

[@anuragchakraborty8766]

Yes but what should alarm you Gobar Bhakts is that 1 Billion Indians are living in poverty

[@amanarya4915]

@@anuragchakraborty8766 what is your metric ?? 1 billion is a lot that almost like 70 percent of the total Indian population

[@surajbiradar9827]

When you have a low base the growth needs to be very high to expand that base rapidly, and not mediocre 5-6%. China registered 10-12% of growth at its peak. And the worst part is the government ministers and many people in India have already declared victory in economic terms. And they think merely surpassing an economy of a country of 68 million people by a country of 1.4 billion people is something revolutionary. The amount of delusion is what is really alarming.

[@tito98496]

Our GDP and it's growth rate is something to be proud of. However I still believe GDP per capita is a better metric to gauge a country's prosperity, because it sheds light on wealth distribution.

[@JitzyJT]

per capita doesn't shine light on wealth distribution.......wealth distribution totally depends on the size of middle class

[@sankalp6872]

Per capita GDP in PPP terms is a more complete indicator.

[@Thanuraj97]

Wealth distribution doesn't come from Per capita it's just Total GDP / Population its gini coefficient that explains, US has High gdp per capita but China has achieved better income distribution and savings for people. us high gdp is attributed to it's big tech giants, and fortune companies who do business all over the world and make huge Revenue which will benefit Billionaires and Govt majorly while workers live from paycheck to paycheck.

[@showmethemoney824]

did you forget to add the population to your equation ... also don't forget the freebies

[@TheMemeGuy124]

We need to grow the economy before we excessively focus on equality. If there is no growth everyone will be equally poor.

[@georgeramapuram]

The fact that we are 3 rd shows that we are growing faster than many but maybe the gap grows with China and US. Thats ok. Lets still celebrate the small wins while we are 3rd largest economy in the whole world in our generation's lifetime. Isnt that wonderful ? As Indians, lets dream for 2nd. It will happen! If not today or tomorrow, atleast in our kid's generation :) ❤

[@sectumsemparium]

Sure , but you will still be poor, while the top 1% hold all the wealth. keep waiting for the wealth to trickle down.

[@sectumsemparium]

FYI an avg american has 500$ in this bank account. we will be the same if we continue on this path

[@merebaap8370]

Your kids generation? That's being just way too optimistic. Lot of things can go wrong if there is no path correction by the govt. If India grows at this rate and China grows at half of India's rate it will take India at least 50 years to level. Your kid might be saying the same thing as you.

[@jkardez4794]

You must be a kid to celebrate something mundane like that . One can understand uneducated people behaving like juveniles over a questionable statistic - ever stopped to count the number of those living BPL . Nominal GDP is for pseudopatriots.You must be a kid to celebrate something mundane like that . One can understand uneducated people behaving like juveniles over a questionable statistic - ever stopped to count the number of those living BPL . Nominal GDP is for pseudopatriots.

[@monumeena348]

Stop cringing more now . Just accept the truth

[@mg.f.9023]

We need to support all small n medium industries. Not just put all India’s assets in the hands of two industrialists!

[@rajx7120]

Not support. Make them grow ! This supporting business, keeps them small. To make them grow, we need labour reforms.

[@TheUndertaker2408]

Punjab is known for MSME’s and Punjab has one of the lowest poverty rates in the Indian Union. Because of this Ludhiana and Jalandhar are in the top 10 wealthiest cities as the wealth is distributed more equally among the population of this cities.

[@Butunmallick7851]

It's ur narrow minded thoughts😏u think shark tank owners r not employing msme?

[@pruthvimeka3259]

I just don’t get why if a small and medium industry wants to grow the 2industrialists should take a hit. It’s like if you want to grow the only way you can do it is by bringing the other guy down. Those 2 industrialists are reliable very reliable. Better let them stay as is. Sure we can help grow the others. No need to bring down those 2.

[@brajeshsingh2391]

Some good points there. I agree that comparison with Us is meaningless but gap between India China widening is a point. Especially given the fact that India has now overtaken China as most populated country.

[@zakquen]

More population will drag down india

[@saureld2229]

I think certain things have to be in place for the economy to take off, India has leapfrogged in terms of the service sector but we completely bypassed manufacturing, almost jumping from an agricultural to service sector. when manufacturing becomes more formalized, Land and labor reforms are in place and infrastructure is sufficient to seamlessly transport raw materials to factories and finished good to ports then the rate of growth will increase until then it's a steady march to set these things up in the first place.

[@TheSoLuna2]

Agree.

[@sreedharch3025]

We all need to focus on water harvesting for securing better lives. Just high income or GDP is not going to feed our population, we need to focus on birth control more than extending life expectancy to manage better resources for all. With automation going to play a large role, high population will negate per capita income and ppp.

[@cheeho9698]

It has been proven that the service economy is not the "real economy". You have to generate wealth to service it. Wealth generators are Raw materials resources and Manufacturing. The Ukraine war showed that even sanctions on Russian services like the SWIFT system does not work because it has a real economy of raw materials like oil, gas, minerals and agricultural products. It also has a manufacturing sector. Economists are now re considering Service importance in an economy.

[@mithu11]

Chinese growth is because of their government,Indian growth is despite our judiciary, bureaucracy and leaders…

[@johndoe-vc1we]

Chinese growth is because it's a western assisted economy since day 1 of their liberalisation program 😉

[@mudra5114]

Chinese growth was because of their high labour productivity in manufacturing compared to other third world countries.

[@mudra5114]

@@johndoe-vc1we True for India too.😉

[@johndoe-vc1we]

@@mudra5114 India is not an assisted economy. We do not have a peace dividend even today which China has enjoyed for the last forty years and Japan & Germany enjoyed for twice as long. Those two are also examples of assisted economies. Everything China has achieved today is due to the US. Can we say that of India. No you cannot. Everything India has achieved comes from India. India's growth is therefore unstoppable.

[@Aashu299]

@@mudra5114no, it’s not. We are a consumption based economy not export based like China.

[@anonymous-cg4ot]

Nice perspective. Since I knew our gap with China has been widening, I was never satisfied with our growth rate. We have to grow in double digits, put all our energy in accelerating evonomic growth, aggressively push people above poverty line, make sure they get quality education and spend more on R&D. We have to do these. Only then, we will be in a respectable position in 2047. Otherwise, the world media will then how wasted Indian potential has become in these 100 years. We have a LOT of catching up to do.

[@Myanmartiger921]

Not realistic till 2047 if we can achieve 60 70 percent of no 2 whoever it is or become no 2 that would be more than enough. 2047 is just 24 years away 2057 67 I understand.

[@adityasarda5118]

Love the comments section here. Just talks about economy in general. No Politics, no partying sides. Just honest talk about India and how it has performed & how can we improve. ❤

[@deepaklegaldeepak]

The government should shelve more money to people to fund their businesses. It is darn difficult to get a loan to set up a small unit even now.

[@oliverqueen8439]

Thank you for providing a refreshing reality check instead of merely touting India's growth narrative. I value truth over one-sided stories, which seems increasingly challenging to find in today's media landscape. This perspective not only provides a more balanced viewpoint but also inspires me to research the significant factors contributing to China's massive growth. By doing so, we can identify strategies to accelerate India's pace of development.

[@umak5128]

He reminds me of my old school master who says - OK, you have improved from the last test, but the class #1 person is still beating you by a lot. Baby steps Shekarji. Once the base grows to 5T, getting to 10T is a lot easier than going from 2.5T to 5T. Just how mathematics work

[@Dara_107]

And wasn’t it something that motivated people to score better? ( especially the ones who were close to top ranks). As an Indian I am happy with the progress and I am excited about the future but that will only happen when baby steps are at least adolescent steps and problems are solved intuitively.

[@msdadsfsx]

no thats not how it works. rate of doubling remains the same, 2.5 to 5, n 5 to 10 same time if growth rate is same.

[@NoMustang273]

​@msdadsfsx Yeah but the point is that it multiplies. It took 7 years to go from 1 trillion to 2 trillion and I think 5 years to reach 3. Now those are not that huge on the grand scale but once you reach 5 trillion, in 7 years you reach 10 and then 20. Basically our economy becomes massive very quickly.

[@msdadsfsx]

@@NoMustang273 that was not ur initial point, doubling time remains the same.

[@braillgebra1706]

​@@msdadsfsxhe said easier not faster. Even though doubli time remains same the economy adds more trillions in the same time interval when the base is higher

[@kalpavrukshg8853]

I think the problem is with the people we are not accepting that capitalism as a system with regulations is best known method for growth and who ever is in opposition attacks that idea. For example, farm laws (opposed by congress)and retail in FDI( opposed by BJP), although I think withdrawal of farm laws was a bigger loss for Indian economy recently

[@zikrbrar3937]

Yea for u everythjn is relTed to farm laws .... !! Let me ask u somethin .. a+b+c is needed to grow W , and product is Z when its in market .. lets say in 1980 .... So wen u shud have asked for.farm.laws , as it was to implement swaminathan s resukts .. anyways .. now a,b,c is increaswd , A , B ,C ..... like petrol ,diesel , sprays , seeds , labour , trqxtor , every thing .... The slaaries whixh were 200,300 is now 50000, 60000 ..... same way diesel , labour , everything is icreased at same rate ... and price of final product ,is also invreased by same perventage almost .. so this is understandable , corect !! But only thing which doeznt increase by even 5 th or 6 th part of yhat perventage is W, .. Wow !! So , farmer has to buy and pay everythinh at todayz price and his crop s final product also goes on todays price .. but only time , that prodixt is useless ,whrn its at farmers fields . Now , dont say provessing - lol .. how its possible ???? If u usdd to spend 10 to make w (20) and maerket proce was 30 lets say .. and now U spend 30 to make anf market price is also 90 .. but W is priced at 35-40 hardly .. and that price also they d9nt want to pay .. they dont wany to make msP must ,whixh is already a loot . But No , we wont even pay that minimum amount .. therr s no need of subsody and any fxkin thing , jus if real proce wd have been paid .. farmer hardly gets , as muxh money tp zpend on next crop .. its just that they dont stop doin it .. and those who were saying they buy rice and everythin .. so yea, u pay the companies , and not farmers !! U r paying correct ,but they not even paying minimu. To farmers , and dats y he owes every1 . And u psying for rice , doesnt solve farmers issue .. ( it was for pepple who said kaun sa ehsaan kia kisaano ne - muft mein to nahi dia ) .. anywyqs actually , india was food def3cirnt , and punjqb, hatyana , up, brought harit kranti . Mad3 india atam.nirbhar ,, bhar dia desh ko anqaj se . But actually it will ultm .ately destroy our lands very soon .. den we wont evevn ask msp . We should have stopped long back .

[@purigoswami4925]

Nobody saying there is no gap but it takes only two decades to close gap with good growth rate . Till 2050 china and usa will not grow too much but india will be

[@rohitnijhawan5281]

100% agree but the caveat is that, for that to happen you need to build high quality infrastructure at blazingly high speed like China has done. In addition you need people to be confident in the rule of law, insitutions and governance. Can that happen? I don't know. Can a person in India be relatively confident that they won't be hurt on the road? If they are hurt an ambulance will arrive in time If the ambulance takes them to a hospital, their bills will be covered by the insurance of the party that caused the accident... All of these things are part of an economic system that is functioning well. It might take another 30 years of progress for India to get all that.

[@jkardez4794]

Keep smoking CBD .

[@urrasscal8380]

it is far far better to be in the 3rd best in economy than none..... but iindia's main problem is iislamb 2nd need double digit gdp 3rd unemployment 4th inflation 5th infrastructure etc...

[@wionporky9937]

At the current Indian economy size. CHINA is having a sustainable double digits growth for 40 Years. 😮

[@NoMustang273]

​@@wionporky9937That's not true at all. China was at India's size in 2007 and went from double dig to single around 2009 onwards. Still high but not at the 10% it used to be. China's economy might slow down significantly in the coming years but we'll have to see

[@jaswantsokey1877]

The fact still remains that it is also the per capita income that stimulates GDP. India performs poorly here compared to the other countries in particular China, Japan and the Western economies of European countries.

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

Let's be realistic. India will never be a developed country in it's lifetime. Even if India grows, it will get stuck in the middle income trap forever. India will also face major resource shortage due to overpopulation and face the wrath of climate change. India's resource base isn't large enough to support an economy too large either. Also the West and China can sabotage India in a jiffy if it grows too much. Also most Indians don't have unity and are still backward minded and tribalistic. Corruption and being unethical has become so deep rooted that it's become impossible to fix it. Also, the number of talented Indians leaving India is increasing at an alarming rate every year and many of these Indians who left India brag about India being the next big thing which is extremely comedic. The most mind boggling thing is that even if God comes down from heaven and says that India will never be a developed country, pa jeets will call him anti Indian and continue living in their fantasy of India being a developed country. To conclude, India may improve in some areas, but it always stay a corrupt 3rd world uncivilized sh8hole. Hence, forget your dreams of being a developed country pa jeet. India is an utterly failed experiment. Adios

[@-Neutron-Star]

One of your best Cut the Clutter episodes! I am always cautious when speaking about India’s growth story! I visited China just before the Pandemic and I was completely amazed at the scale and quality of growth China has achieved!

[@cheeho9698]

Glad you came to China.

[@vip129870]

Where was this “reality check” when China was beating Congress for 10 years? 😂

[@merebaap8370]

Very much here but at that time you might be doing something good or you were a kid with little interest or understanding of politics and economy. And most importantly your mind was not poisoned by hate, hindutva and hypocrisy.

[@Victor-y9g1w]

sg was sucking his thumb and you know what else of sonia and rajiv

[@jkardez4794]

So you don't like reality checks like the Congress .

[@Myanmartiger921]

10 years? More like 30 35

[@JitzyJT]

that's why congress is removed......

[@user-vk1bm]

Mrs shekhar gupta by 2030 indias gdp will around 7 trillion and china around 30 trillion thats roughly 4 times but now its 6 times bigger than ours , I think that as our economy grows in 15 years this ratio will down to 2

[@tejesheconomics4072]

😂😂 but our currency depreciates so badly.....we may never be their....please understand instead of doing bajan

[@arunsar7893]

The article was pointless and so is this episode of cut the clutter.

[@sprinkleroilfish]

Yup. All this talk of GDP growth an all. Ground realities are so bleak.

[@arunsar7893]

@@sprinkleroilfish Ground realities change eventually. One needs to see the delta/change rather than seeing absolutes.

[@surajbiradar9827]

Yes, because anything that doesn't praise the supreme leader 24×7 is pointless. When you don't like the facts discredit them... Nice strategy

[@arunsar7893]

@@surajbiradar9827 The article and the cut the clutter episode was about Indian economy and it's comparison with Chinese economy, which in my opinion is pointless. It's like comparing a 5 year old with a 20 year old and saying look how much taller the 20 year old is. Facts are the same, perspectives are different. And I really can't help if someone is stupid enough to conflate assessment of Indian economy and with that of the PM.

[@surajbiradar9827]

@@arunsar7893 If you read carefully, the article is actually about the false sense "everything is excellent" narrative In India when the facts say otherwise. And how this Premature celebration, the self congratulating nature of India masks rationality. For eg. When the Chinese economy was of our size, it grew by 14.23% and the average for the decade hovered around 9-10%.and we are going gaga over mediocre 5-6% growth. A country with 1.4 billion people having the same economic output as a country with 68 million people is considered as some revolutionary achievement here.

[@braillgebra1706]

Tbh GDP at purchasing power parity is much better measurement of standard of living. I don't know why economiser and experts are so obsessed with nominal gdp while talking about poverty in the same breath

[@nsevv]

Nice that is fast! india just opened economy about 3 years ago.

[@mayanksingh0044]

every 20+ min video from SG is a cause of celebration. we need more like that

[@brainymandar6]

India is still the only country where poverty is celebrated and becomes an election slogan. This is happening since 1970s when Indira Gandhi said गरीबी हटाव Modi in 2023 says मैं गरीब का बेटा हू. Modi is even far more economic left than Indira Gandhi. We are still not liberated economy as we should be. I see an average Indian still has an aversion or a guilt to show the material richness. West is a happy, healthy and great place to live because they have embraced materialism openly. Indians by and large still take a pride in the outdated virtue like "Simple Living and High Thinking". All these have a collective impact on us as a society and our politics and hence economic policies.

[@JitzyJT]

In India even providing basic necessities like bathrooms or toilets are celebrated as election campaign....let alone poverty

[@mudra5114]

Say "Simple Living and High Thinking", but be corrupt and greedy in reality.

[@nagbalkur1365]

Few comments 1) There was a recent Goldman Sachs Report few months ago, said by 2075, US, China and India all would be around $52 trillions. So, India is behind, today, but it'll catch up 2) There was a presentation by Ruchir Sharma in NDTV, Indian economy was 5th in the world in 1947 (primarily due to most of bigger economies getting destroyed due to World War II). So, Mr. Sharma's point was, India is where it was 75 years ago ago. He makes it clear that, while world grew spectacularly after World War II, India due to its socialist closed economic policies, grew at about 3 percent. 3) Overall, most experts say China with all its headwinds, will grow slowly, and with India growing at higher rate, the 6 times differentiation that China enjoys today, will come down in another 10-12 years when India reaches $10 trillion mark

[@bloodwargaming3662]

Those are projections mate and Goldman Sachs isn't the best for these kinds of economic reviews , IMF World Bank data are more reliable

[@ashishkumar-gz8vz]

Keep on dreaming...1st india wont reach 10 trill in next 10 yrs ..and china even at 3% will keep increasing the difference even if india grows at 7% .

[@rajagopalans.v.5068]

The reason why China is much ahead of India in economic growth is due to the following factors: 1. China adopted market economy in 1970s while India adopted market economy only in 1990s. China had clearly a lead of over 15 years and had become a manufacturing hub for the world. 2. Taiwan, a major manufacturer of electronic goods and computer hardware before China, invested heavily in mainland China and moved many of its manufacturing to mainland China. 3. Hongkong before it merged with mainland of China, was a leading Financial Centre and a free economy, thus paving way for major funds to be poured into China. 4. China being a one party autocratic regime, was able to take economic and labour decisions faster than a democracy like India. 5. China developed and modernized its infrastructure very fast which in turn helped sectors like Steel, Cement, etc to become huge and thereby achieving high economies of scale. 6. Huge manufacturing facilities helped China provide jobs and lift majority of Chinese population from poverty. 7. Unfortunately India did not focus much on manufacturing sector even after liberalization and instead focused more on Service sector. While service sector helped improve the economy, it could not lift a huge lowly educated population out of poverty. Only recently India has started looking at manufacturing as thrust area to provide jobs for the masses.

[@jliang70]

I am quite surprised that there has been no thumb up for you. Every single points you made reflect what happened in China and what is happening in India in the last twenty years. Apart from that China is also heavily invested in technology so it can keep its economy continue to grow, this is why now we are seeing they are surging with an EV industry. Chinese government and private sectors invested 660 billion in scientific research and development that is 10 times that of India, Chinese government also invested 3.5% of its GDP in education that is about the same with India, but the size of Chinese economy means it invested 3 times more than India in education.

[@KushalTripathi]

No one talks about productivity. Increase in the productivity is the direct indicator of employment. Everyone talks about just GDP figure.

[@qiangliu5950]

If you consider urbanization rate, life expectancy and agriculture labor ratio, Japan, South Korea and China's GDP growth rate was around 10% when they were at a similar stage as India. Thailand and Malaysia were at 7~8%

[@cheeho9698]

China's economy is about 5 times the size of India's. For every one percent Chinese growth it is equal to 5% of India's. Simple maths, for every 1% Chinese growth India has to grow 5% just to stay even.

[@Tatpunjiya]

Under congress we grew at 14%, under fakeer we grew at 6%. Fakeer also made our debt 3 times in the same period

[@aswinrraj6949]

Do you have any idea where we were when we got Independence ? In 75 freakin years this is the first time we have a proper leadership which sees this nation as it's family and not the other way around 🤣 Try traveling you might understand what a fakeer is.

[@Myanmartiger921]

Agree we should make sharia equal to science

[@vinodhkrishnan]

Always great to be a realist and well captured Shekarji. While becoming a 5 trillion or 3rd largest is a natural factor when 140 crore people will have to consume something or the other daily , our real test comes with what we spend on innovation and education , thus setting for the big stage in real terms and luring the best talents across the globe. That's the greatest focus we need to amass our whole energy at.

[@Power0fNow]

Got it. The message is Stop celebrating. You will never succeed. Just give up. Sounds like my dad when I was growing up.

[@gauravk1290]

I highly admire Shekhar's journalism and analysis. I regularly watch #cuttheclutter at 1.5 speed since I used have a complain about his slow news/data delivery. Thanks #youtube for making this feasible! Anyone else here like me, who watch this show at 1.5 speed to save time while grasping best news n analysis stories?

[@deus_ex_machina_]

Shekhar ji's leisurely and rhythmic pace enhances impact and helps me unwind. Playing content too fast saves time, but it might reduce comprehension and long-term recall. I find KZbin's increments of '.25' to be too coarse, podcast players usually increment in steps of '.1'. On PC I use an extension called 'Enhancer for KZbin', which lets you increment in steps of '.1' with the mouse wheel. On mobile, there's not much you can do, except watch on a mobile browser with such an extension or use an alternative KZbin client like Vanced.

[@vedalee246]

@@deus_ex_machina_ i have time for his endeavors

[@ghatak580]

for young speed is good, but many aged wants his slow journalism 😂 good that we have option of speed, so no problem

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

Let's be realistic. India will never be a developed country in it's lifetime. Even if India grows, it will get stuck in the middle income trap forever. India will also face major resource shortage due to overpopulation and face the wrath of climate change. India's resource base isn't large enough to support an economy too large either. Also the West and China can sabotage India in a jiffy if it grows too much. Also most Indians don't have unity and are still backward minded and tribalistic. Corruption and being unethical has become so deep rooted that it's become impossible to fix it. Also, the number of talented Indians leaving India is increasing at an alarming rate every year and many of these Indians who left India brag about India being the next big thing which is extremely comedic. The most mind boggling thing is that even if God comes down from heaven and says that India will never be a developed country, pa jeets will call him anti Indian and continue living in their fantasy of India being a developed country. To conclude, India may improve in some areas, but it always stay a corrupt 3rd world uncivilized sh8hole. Hence, forget your dreams of being a developed country pa jeets. India is an utterly failed experiment. Adios

[@mahantkumartiwari312]

Since we are celebrating the current success doesn't mean we are ignorant of what else is there to achieve. There will always be work to do, and everything takes time- you don't always sound intelligent by being pessimistic.

[@sectumsemparium]

yes we need to work hard and make more money for the top1%

[@surajs5913]

​@@sectumsempariumno we need to make sure that everyone is equally poor...

[@agnimitram340]

​@@sectumsempariumlet's make everyone a beggar. That will be awesome 🎉🎉.

[@jkardez4794]

@@surajs5913 Only two fat cats getting richer..,

[@karthik7486]

@@sectumsempariumit means you don’t have the brains and the hard work to become rich. You just want to sit on your lazy ass blaming Ambani adani and expect thr govt to give you all the money. Just get lost from the country if you only want to shot on the country but aren’t optimistic abt it. We’ve got plenty of ppl who just point out problems. We don’t need more of your kind. You are just a burden and a drag on the system that’s it.

[@anuragdas9400]

It would be ludicrous to think that we are growing faster than China, 4% growth on a base of 17.7 T$ is still higher than a 7% growth on a base of 3.39 T$.

[@sundareshanal1849]

Subhash Garg always had an open grouse against the Modi govt as he was probably sidelined. He has been niggardly and petty in not giving any credit the govt after hevfell.out of grace.

[@truthseeking6611]

And SG likes to lick MMS's a$$ any chance he gets.

[@tejesheconomics4072]

😂😂...So it is his wrong to give a reality check.....you just do Bhajan....modi set Target of indian economy will be 5 trillion in 2022 previous year😂😂.....which we will not reach till 2028.....😂😂😂😂....so all govt including modi are Chutiyas

[@mg.f.9023]

Garg has pointed out the Fact. Fact is a fact

[@kkumarbspl]

Hi, You are checking on dollar value on per capita but we also need to understand our cost of leaving is very different from US. Coffee is 10/- whereas i US in will be 200/- in INR terms.

[@amannarang9344]

He cleverly tries to pull India down , every time something good happens in India

[@tyrant_hermit]

Facts don't care about your feelings.

[@bauwndule]

India's "red hot" economy is 122 in the world on a per capita basis.

[@bugged1212]

You do realize that if the GDP increases, it leads to higher per capita income. Basic math 101.

[@atokimruk937]

Obviously a jihadi. How come you don't see it in terms of PPP.

[@sectumsemparium]

Thats why am still poor, atleast we can look forward to beat bangladesh in the future ! Print is part of GODI media they actual truth but gave a made up version.

[@sectumsemparium]

Also we have the higest wealth gap of any country, but shekar will kiss the ass of capital owners and say we are doing good on paper so be happy

[@sprinkleroilfish]

Yup. All this talk of GDP growth an all. Ground realities are so bleak.

[@peacelover2002]

I would say, we don't need double digit growth for 3-4 decades. Just having double digit growth for one decade will do wonders for India. China had just 6-8 years of double digit growth. Rest were 9% or so. We just have to make some tough policy changes which might not be possible in democratic India.

[@rahuldeshpande913]

Nice economic analysis. But one should not forget that more entangled the economies of countries are..one can expect to see such statistics. The rupee depreciation has played a role in current dollar terms....so would like to see what are the gaps in terms of PPP. I think there one would expect to see much less.

[@kamaldelhi1999]

Shekharji is like ..If a student who was lagging very far behind others ,increases his pace and is about to come to no. 3 in race ...instead of encouraging him and looking at this as a silver lining ,one starts looking at all the statistics to put him down .Hats off to you Shekhar ji for doing so much hard work to find some logic to make Indians pessimistic about coming to number 3 in a few years from now . By the way ,I hope you have read the recent opinion of world experts which says that China's economy is much lower than what it projects as the statistics are totally fudged in a totalitarian state wheras US economy is at the highest pedestal only because of dollar being a fiat currency ...and both economies are poised for correction in next few years. But these facts are not suitable to the narrative which Mr Shekhar wants to build .

[@Mahindra-fn4sw]

Kamaldelhi brilliant thought provoking reply

[@sumitchadgal3977]

Who was looking for skip option in the beginning when ad was being shown

[@ralluriutah]

While, all this is true. It’s not simple, even after cutting the clutter. The true measure of GDP should PPP. A gallon of milk in America is far costlier than a gallon of milk in India. In PPP India is about $11 to 12 T. China and America aren’t that far away, around 23 and 18 respectively. So yeah, a wholelistic picture with PPP & CPI are required to gauge the strength of an economy. India is not weak, we will only get stronger vis-a-vis China & America.

[@NoMustang273]

You're comparing PPP to China's nominal GDP. They're at 30 trillion. Granted the gap is smaller than the nominal GDP gap but it won't reduce much even by the end of the decade. After another 20 to 30 years it'll come much closer

[@mg.f.9023]

Democracy is what the Chinese people cannot enjoy as poor & rich in India do. Freedom of individual is priceless.

[@Rising._.Thunder]

Nobody gives a damn about democracy if they are enjoying much better living conditions and lifestyle. If China removed Immigration laws, half of India would gladly move to Chinese cities

[@Tom-fw6bx]

U can pee anywhere

[@mg.f.9023]

@@Tom-fw6bx Andhbhakt of BJP was caught peeing on a tribal! Every one need not be like andhbhakts 😅

[@jliang70]

But most of the Chinese people are not jealous of the democracy you have. China has better living standard for its citizens than India, a safer society, with better health care system. Freedom without the living essentials is nothing to be proud of.

[@kannanv8981]

Human development is not only the economy but spiritual, cultural and family values. I am sure the Indian values have grown multiple times in the last few years than in the past and comparable to other countries including USA and China. In the last decade, India"s contribution to human development like Yog have immense contribution than adding trillions of dollars to the economies.

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

India may grow fast at random points of time, but it will never become an advanced economy. To be an advanced economy you need to have a per capita gdp of $20000, a high hdi rank, strong technological and industrial prowess. Look where India stands in these parameters. Countries like Russia, Malaysia, Mexico and Brazil could not transition to advanced economies and whether China will make it is unknown. If these countries couldn't make it, then there is no way in hell India will become an advanced economy.

[@surajbiradar9827]

We indians need to shed this attitude of premature celebration/self congratulations and going gaga over miniscule achievements if we ever hope to become a truly developed country. There is a marathi proverb which perfectly describes indians. "अर्ध्या हळकुंडावर पिवळे होणे" Which Means, hoping to finish your haldi ceremony with only half of a stem of turmeric"

[@AdityaYadav-wi1yk]

Its being stated everywhere that India'a current GDP is 3.73 trilllion usd, even on wikipedia. But here he says that we'll be 3.73 trillion by the end of this financial year. So who is wrong here?

[@prafullsingh7872]

We need to do much better and also try to attract much more manufacturing and invest lot in R&D to accelerate the quantum of growth

[@Victor-y9g1w]

get to work instead of wasting time here.

[@akashrocks825]

Thanks to additionally powered ministers that matters we are a vibrant economy

[@sectumsemparium]

you joking right ?

[@SkpalTube]

​@@sectumsempariumWhatever he is smoking seems to be really good.

[@berserkhorimiya]

@LibertyUnion-uz7qz this is happening on back of increased government investments via borrowing which isn't that difficult to do, our private investments and FDI as percentage of GDP are a fraction of what they ought to be at this stage.

[@bloodwargaming3662]

​@@berserkhorimiyafdi is falling to the ground aldready , manufacturing fell 13% this year

[@RenewPassion]

​@@berserkhorimiya correct, gdp by government debt and spending is not sustainable! It gives a false sense of positivity, benefitting few already ultra rich business men! Grass root level fact check, common man is struggling to meet his ends! Distributed wealth will only improve India as an economy!

[@sidharathjain3091]

Should have also mentioned GDP in PPP basis

[@sourabhpatil23945]

It doesn't matter just Google it we are already 3rd largest economy in PPP, yeah but Per capita is worse.

[@jkardez4794]

Don't make it too complicated for the andhbhakhts.

[@Myanmartiger921]

@@jkardez4794andh namazis think sharia is science.

[@Myanmartiger921]

@@skarr7985not pandit just 1 pandit. A retarded 🤡

[@JitzyJT]

you mean per capita? in purchasing power parity (ppp) we are doing good.....

[@purushothr5959]

Good Analysis, Kudos 😊

[@manishrastogi3959]

India is doing much better than others and as an Indian working in a global business environment … I can feel it

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

Let's be realistic. India will never be a developed country in it's lifetime. Even if India grows, it will get stuck in the middle income trap forever. India will also face major resource shortage due to overpopulation and face the wrath of climate change. India's resource base isn't large enough to support an economy too large either. Also the West and China can sabotage India in a jiffy if it grows too much. Also most Indians don't have unity and are still backward minded and tribalistic. Corruption and being unethical has become so deep rooted that it's become impossible to fix it. Also, the number of talented Indians leaving India is increasing at an alarming rate every year and many of these Indians who left India brag about India being the next big thing which is extremely comedic. The most mind boggling thing is that even if God comes down from heaven and says that India will never be a developed country, pa jeets will call him anti Indian and continue living in their fantasy of India being a developed country. To conclude, India may improve in some areas, but it always stay a corrupt 3rd world uncivilized sh8hole. Hence, forget your dreams of being a developed country pa jeet. India is an utterly failed experiment. Adios

[@rohitmalaga9369]

The best economics class I have ever attended, thank you professor 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

[@naturemeditation3751]

You will definitely fail your next economics exam be it macro or micro

[@bhai857]

better study hard, and get enrolled in a good college.

[@abagwe9887]

Once per capita income reach 4500 dollar we will start growing faster and gap with china will reduce....

[@atokimruk937]

This is positive news and is one step that in a series of steps that a country needs to take. Yes, you can always look at gdp per capita to give it a negative tinge but you can also look at PPP/ capita to give it a positive tinge. As always " it depends". As a frequent business traveler across the globe, I have a favorite hobby of going to local stores and markets to check prices of everything from food to toothpaste to clothes, etc. Food prices in India are easily the lowest in the world and so are many other things. But your IPhone and BMW ( you don't need either) cost the same. A salary in Zurich or Dan Francisco looks fantastic on paper but the costs there are astronomical. Obviously just being 3 rd largest economy is not enough though it is a cause for celebration and one vital achievement. The next steps is to increase the % of middle class while increasing their incomes. Rome was not built in one day and neither will Indian prosperity. Good govt policies can expedite so that you don't need to wait long for parity. But quality of life can be enhanced dramatically when you manufacture locally and make most things affordable aligned with your currency and incomes.

[@karamjeetsingh9737]

first i came to this because i see india is growing and now i'am leaving depressed because i saw china and America are way ahead of us .

[@syrss7510]

Indian rupee has depreciated 33% and not 20%

[@bharatisamurai4614]

Good show, thank you! India has to grow at double digits and for that, you need iron-fisted leaders to clean up the dirt and organize, regulate every little thing so that it's silky smooth ticking like clockwork.

[@mg.f.9023]

We need to start inventing/manufacturing better clocks than just import them… point is we need innovation not just slogans 😅

[@jitentiwari]

It only proves what a first mover advange means and that India's socialist past still influences India's future.China started reforming three decades earlier.Three decades down the line is when India can achieve parity with China in the real sense. As of now, we can only compare ourselves with our own past. One more factor is PPP, in that term we are only 2.5 times less than China, and China itself is ahead of the US.

[@bloodwargaming3662]

Without the socialist past india would be like Angola or chille or Bolivia , right wing economics only grows when the bases of education healthcare are and thank Fully under visionary leaders like nehru and Indira india grew quickly in those areas , why do you think the it sector in India boomed ? Simple Pakistan Bangladesh didn't have those highly educated English speaking individuals and high tech skills , without iit and nits which was under socialist regimes india wouldnt have the advantage it had in the 90's . 2) the internal conflicts and external conflicts india faced itself was the biggest hurdle for growth which homogenous countries like China didn't face

[@PraveenKumar-hu4xf]

​@@bloodwargaming3662 nehru visionary? That man single handedly destroyed india in every possible way. Denying un seat to not liberalising the economy 😂

[@sagarpaul7934]

​@@bloodwargaming3662that is called the celebration of mediocrity , what the socialist government of india has done n still we have a socialist government, how many iits and nits nehru made , if he had made 1000 of iits n nits, then I would give him credit, nehru should have focused on primary education, he didn't, n our primary education system was one of the worse as sub Saharan african country. Our cities looks dirty, hideous no sense of urban planning, nehru as the first prime Minister didn't do urban planning with grid , no urban mangament, third rate policing, Third rate judiciary, at least soviet union or Mao did at least industrialization of their state but no we are lawda ka civilization, your stupid argument is like indra g did nationalization of banks n insurance companies n it helped us, in what terms didn't they gave any benefits to the people of countries but one thing they did sure make corruption and red tapism rampant. The data is evident of thar fact that till 2014, only 32 percent of this country had bank accounts, only 60 percent of country had any sort of insurance till 2014 , but no Sar socialism helped us Sar, we are secular sir, but we didn't even go through secular civil code , because we have to appease the people sir , who were responsible of partion Sar,. This same soclist energy let us down , unless socialist were not die down in this country I would never have hope for this country, this country will never be developed not in my life time not even my kids lifetime. N little bit of development or things we see in this country are after 1991.

[@tarunyadav3567]

@@bloodwargaming3662 chille is the best performing country in south america and it is the only one with liberal economics since 1973.

[@tobacco118]

You should asking why didn't India reform before China did? China was destructed after WW2, India was unaffected. Then Chinese civil war, commie madness and famine until their reform Deng Xipeng. What was India under Congres doing for 60yrs?? Meditation.

[@kirandeepchakraborty7921]

The government's fiscal discipline throughout the pandemic years has been the primary driver of India's Economic growth in the last few quarters.

[@GajendraNarolia]

Ur assumption putting Keynesian theory upside down !!

[@syrss7510]

So under Harvard(Brain), India grew by 260%(0.52 to 1.8 trillion). But under Hardwork (Muscle), India grew less than 90% (1.8 to 3.3 trillion) 😅😅

[@tomriddle4110]

its much easier to grow at a smaller base

[@syrss7510]

@@tomriddle4110 how much did Vajpayee ji's rule increase? How come China & US with much higher base, able to grow higher?

[@tomriddle4110]

@@syrss7510 because they supoort capitlaism, not attack our own buisnessmen for sake of muslims

[@syrss7510]

@@tomriddle4110 please don't accuse BJP especially Modiji of destroying our businessman for muslims. Your statement doesn't support facts. Conclusion: under Divisive Muscle power, the Indian growth was 1/3rd of United mind power.

[@sandeepkapoor8969]

India has just started and will climb up rapidly from now onwards. It definitely is a cause of celebration however nobody is saying that we don't have a long way to go.

[@user_chestnut]

since 1990, 'from now no...' was repeated thousands if not millions

[@udaymehta4375]

Absolutely right, Indian economy will become be 3rd largest in the world but average Indian will remain poor. Unnecessarily we are celebrating and patting our back.

[@DipankarNath]

I believe we should also not forget who this economic growth is for. Comparison with dollars only makes sense for items which are imported (or may be when traveling abroad). Indians in India will always buy mostly in rupees, most probably paying high prices only for imported items (since Rupee invariably might still be weak, which by the way will be advantageous for exports). A better measure how well off Indians would be would be probably looking at the per capita GDP in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). However we would probably still feel the pinch when importing oil and traveling abroad, but at least ordinary Indians would be better off. I am hoping we have more people in the private sector, less dependence on government jobs and a more efficient way to carry out agricultural activities so that even small farmers can make a decent living. We definitely should strengthen our services sector (which is I believe is our biggest power) and complement it with high tech manufacturing industry which cannot be easily replaced by cheap labour anywhere else.

[@AjitKumar-mq7zw]

Congratulations on an objective and factual analysis as expected of the SG , one would rather remember.

[@prasadsv1206]

Continuing from where I left off, per capita GDP on a PPP basis shows US is at $ 76,398.6, China at $ 21,475.60 and India at $ 8,379.1. The gap is therefore not as huge as unadjusted data shows (source: World Bank).

[@gautamlakra1131]

PPP value is the only correct way to judge ! You are correct

[@KAN443]

There is Huge Gap There itself 😂

[@yatharthsaxena175]

I admire the critique of our statistics, I believe this analysis completely disregards the flywheel effect. Once you’re big, it’s much easier for you to get bigger. A fairer comparison would be to compare relative growth rate of India with china and the US. Of course we’re not magically going to become the leader of the world, what we should care about now should be if we’re headed in the right direction and if we’re betting on reasonable growth drivers. I fully agree with the notion that we shouldn’t be high on pride right now. Be proud to be Indian but don’t let pride get the best of you. A lot of work needs to be done still.

[@vaibhavuniyal1842]

What magnificent job did garg do during his time to even the gap? Or have Shekhar's paymasters any valid ideas on how to further growth other than bankrupting the treasury by endless revdis and Old Pension Scheme?

[@Victor-y9g1w]

garg was not doing anything while he was in govt. he was running his kirana business. now he is writing these reports where all the information is available on internet. just cut and paste job.

[@mg.f.9023]

Government could do Hindu Muslim and export that 😂

[@cleonii]

It's true that we have to be humble and cautious with our growth, and not celebrate too much. But this feels like we are trying to grab on to any statistic to just rain on the parades.

[@sharvarigc7714]

wow, amazing reality check. Thank you :)

[@paddysubramaniam1481]

Don't compare with China and who (however rich) wants to live there without freedom of thought, speech and action !!! India is a democratic country and under those principles its economy is growing rapidly...that is what people want👍👍👍

[@wingkeungkong415]

You are speaking rubbish Chinese enjoy the best living standard. N freedom in its history You know nothing about China And you want to comment on china You are very funny person

[@Tom-fw6bx]

Indian growth is not sustainable due to the low iq, 82.

[@chinahamyku6583]

It is rare that India still has such a rational and sober media editor. His analysis may enable some Indians to understand how to face reality. Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard University who is a conservative and hardliner on China, published an article entitled "Can India Overtake China to Become the Next Superpower" in Foreign Policy on June 24. His analysis is as follows: India India's economic miracle has been highly anticipated since the early 1990s, but 30 years later, India is still stuck in the stage of expectation. In 2000, China's manufacturing, export and GDP were 2-3 times higher than India's, and now the gap has widened by 5 times. China's GDP is $17.7 trillion and India's is $3.2 trillion. It is worth mentioning that, based on 2000, China accounted for about 7% of the world's manufacturing industry, and India accounted for 1%. In 2022, China will increase to 31%, but India will only account for 3%. In the proportion of world merchandise exports, China surged from 2% to 15%, while India only increased from 1% to 2%. Meanwhile, China's illiteracy rate is 1%, while India's is 25%. In the field of information and communication, which is rich in manpower in India, China appears to be unable to do what it wants. Four of the world's top 20 high-tech companies are Chinese companies, but India has none; China has 50% of the world's 5G communication facilities, but India only has 1%; China has TikTok and other platforms for the world, but India has nothing. Allison cites these statistics and realities, citing former Singapore prime minister Lee Kuan Yew's assessment. Lee Kuan Yew, who has worked with India for a long time, believes that India cannot become a "future country" due to the deep-rooted caste system, sprawling bureaucracy, racial and religious disputes, and the leadership's lack of will to resolve them. Lee Kuan Yew's conclusion on this is: "Don't compare India with China". Arvind Subramanian, a senior visiting scholar at Brown University who served as the chief economic advisor to the Indian government, published an article titled "Why India Can't Replace China" on "Foreign Affairs" last November. It is pointed out in the article that since the early 2000s, India has set off an investment boom, but not many foreign companies have transferred production to India. This is because the investment risk is too high, and the investment policy will change later. The rules will change later too, Indian rules and regulations are always in favor of the Indian chaebols that the government likes. India was also ranked as the most difficult country in the world to do business in the Global Doing Business survey.

[@bernadmanny]

To achieve the growth rate to surpass China would result in massive environmental degradation, stick with a slightly smaller growth rate and reap the benefits for centuries.

[@indopacificworldaffairs5562]

China has overstated its GDP by 40%. Not much growth in last 8 years

[@niku1412]

Shekhar ji, I would appreciate if you can cut some clutter on the true size of Chinese economy and the rumours around it.

[@dgdilipdgdilip2959]

Thanks for finding holes in these figures. What you forget here is, 10 years back, Indians never compared themselves with America or Europe. Today we compare with these countries nonchalantly. PM was not saying we have done everything, but just telling how fast we have moved. Regardless of how much poison you try to put could water on our enthusiasm, we will continue work hard for country

[@AKThakur76]

Going by trajectory of Japan and Germany's economic growth. I will be surprised if we don't overtake them by FY 26. By FY 28, we shd be over 5T economy already. And hopefully 7T by FY 31. We are becoming competitive in logistics slowly, and with properly trained manpower, we should have much bigger manufacturing sector. This is if we are able to manage relationship with US in better shape. Else, we will keep growing by 5-6%.

[@sanketsaitawdekar4440]

Even if there was no prime minister to our country, India would have naturally grown to 5 trillion economy by 2028.

[@rishiraaj.580]

Economy decides your value. 👍

[@jeevinidhinpragadheeshs9998]

The more quickly we come to the realization, the more promptly we can shift our focus towards the right priorities. Currently, it appears that a significant portion of our population is yet to acknowledge that India's growth has not yet attained its full potential growth rate!

[@s.m.9803]

Mind-blowing logic! in 1990 and before 1990 all the way back to 1960, there was virtually no gap between China and India! The gap opened up only after the nineties and yet Guptaji hails liberalization!!