This Is Why Condos Are Suffering The Most (GTA Condo Real Estate Market Update)

[@Stormshfter]

The point of building condos is for people to eventually live in them. The greed took over on too high of a level, the developers, presale buyers and flippers forgot that part when they squeezed 12 more units on each floor. Now there all built and no one sees themselves living in a shoebox.

[@justinjones5281]

Go to Japan.

[@arethereanyuniquehandles]

@@justinjones5281 Yes, but that's not Toronto, people want and expect some space. Japan not so much.

[@carenlook7902]

You are right. Canadians are fighting to keep their standard. Their government was selling them out to global parasites. They tried to flood the country with the world's sewage . Let's see if the political opposition has the balls to do what Trump claims he will on day1. Maybe that will force builders to wake tf up

[@billferguson1368]

I'm sure a lot of Joe and Jane amateur investors HELOCed their houses to get in on a "sure thing". Now? It's time to pony up; many might be forced to sell their houses to help with any monies owing.

[@GreenBeanGreenBean]

who let you out from your trailerpark? how many people have sued you for giving faulty advice on your failed fb scam page.

[@billferguson1368]

Furthermore and FYI, the condo market is also under a great deal of stress here in Greater Vancouver. Asking prices are falling hard and fast, inventory levels are exploding, sale prices are seeing "lower highs", many sale prices are seeing a return to their 2016 (or lower) purchase prices, today's buyers are getting "more for less", developer pre-sales are in the ditch (per MLA Canada, the umbrella org. for Greater Vancouver developers, the sales rate for 2943 new condo releases for both October and November was a piddly 15%), public sentiment has shifted to the downside, many Joe and Jane flippers are now stuck with product they can't sell and, they will continue to be undercut at every turn by continued developer discounts and incentives (which has been underway for quite awhile now). What to do? Failing a sale, Joe and Jane will try to rent out what they can't sell; "some" money will be better than "no" money; especially with a cash-flow negative unit (and, there are oodles of them). So, rising rents = more supply = falling rents...and, that is now well-underway. To add insult to injury, once a unit is rented out, it becomes an even tougher sell; today's buyer's want shiny and new. And, as it now stands, they certainly have more and more to pick and choose from. Our mess isn't being widely reported, though, the local media continues to maintain a virtual News blackout on what's really going on out there. Crickets.

[@robertscott8336]

@@GreenBeanGreenBean You must be really scared.

[@GreenBeanGreenBean]

@@robertscott8336 scared of what? prices goin on up.... and I've been investing for decades my mortgages are very small so the cashflow is very big, especially with rates down again. you clowns are posting 100 times a day on every real estate board the same trash, nobody cares what you think.

[@carriemaybrun1904]

Condos are terrible - period!! Worthless - fees are stupid high - taxes are ridiculous for little box rooms...costs of parking is pure criminal - only idiots would ever consider a condo in ANY location.....watch what happens in southern Ont in the next 12 months to ALL condos....Toronto is always finished.....Barrie. too......wait for it...

[@johnf321]

Excellent comment.

[@owelonacliff]

Thanks for sharing this perspective, Santo! I think your hypothesis has solid potential to hold true next year. That said, I noticed something when running the numbers for the GTA (Toronto, Peel, York, Durham, Halton). The data doesn’t seem to add up to 1/3 (Freehold) vs. 2/3 (Condo) for tenanted properties. Could it be that irrelevant listings-like parking spaces, lockers, vacant land, or farms-aren’t being excluded? As of December 16th, my calculations showed 23.8% (Freehold) vs. 24% (Condo) for tenanted properties. Still, I completely agree that the influx of new condo completions (estimated at 29,000) will have a significant impact on GTA’s condo MOIs and could drive price adjustments in 2025.

[@teamsessa]

I appreciate your analysis. I used tenanted and vacant properties as an estimate for investment properties.

[@Opinionated363]

Excellent analysis.

[@davidbalcon8726]

What’s the proportion of small (

[@James-n8z6w]

Seems like the Oct / Nov Toronto condo sales are much higher than previous months, possibly due to lower int rates. With today's BOC 0.5 cut and future rates cuts, it will be interesting to see the numbers the next couple of months. Santo may need a 85" Samsung TV to prepare for the huge spikes in the spring.

[@resp0nse_beats]

lol...I like that! A bigger TV needed to encompass the spike. 😄

[@billferguson1368]

More like "lower prices". Don't kid yourself.

[@allnikolay]

Thanks for your Analysis!

[@dtnishi1]

Excellent analysis ❤

[@premavida]

Thank you for doing that research. It's crazy results re. investment proportion, in both categories, really. One question: Would the freehold properties be a bit less, because alot of freeholds are rented out only in part (basement, etc) and also owner occupied. Were you able to account for that somehow in the search filters? TY again!

[@parthppatel28]

I bet 2/3 of Canadian real estate is investor owned.

[@GreenBeanGreenBean]

95% of all housing was built with private investor money.... including all housing.

[@parthppatel28]

@GreenBeanGreenBean investors money and private? What kinda investors are they if they have to use their own money.. 😜.

[@edamameme1789]

over 63% of the population of Canada are home owners...so i hope you didnt bet much.

[@stephenfermoyle4578]

can't wait to hear this one!!! LOL they were not built with anyone who actually WANTS to live in a CONDO. we know the difference, that is NOT the issue. we all know about the flooding/ investor ...they are all /most /all AWFUL

[@ArnabSaha-y1i]

I would love to see separate videos for discussing the freehold townhouses segment, which is definitely a big market in itself especially in a pricey market and additional price stimulus due to the increased mortgage eligibility for first time homebuyers effective from 15th Dec.

[@GreenBeanGreenBean]

Condos actually outperforming housing...... if the price gap between houses and condos is shrinking (which it is), that means housing is dropping faster than condos, or condos are going up more than houses. Condo completions will peak this summer aka in the next 6 months, as they complete in spring and summer and not the winter.... so 2024 completions are already done. Then after 2025 it is down 50% and going to nothing new being built for the next 10 years. Most power of sales are houses, because of the sheer amount of debt it takes to buy a house. Also, if a condo is empty while it being sold and it is close to being a new completion, that is the builder trying to sell the unsold inventory.... not an actual investor...... no investor closes and then lets the unit sit empty collecting no rent. In fact, most of the first 7 minutes was wrong.... stick to just reporting the numbers plz. Most of the available inventory of condos is 3 bedrooms and studios, the types of units few want..... that is what is pushing MOI up for condos whereas 1 and 2 bedroom units have the same MOI that houses do.

[@Hoser584]

We need these preachers to fully disclose their dealings over the last four years so we can see all the prices they pumped up with sellers, all the deals they made with all the insider information they had, and what they bought and sold behind the scenes.

[@dimitrychekov1136]

So 2/3 of condo owners are investors. My guess is many of these people have a primary residence. Maybe they even took out a HELOC to buy the investment condo… or two. How does ☝️this mess not bleed into freehold prices as more condo investors fold in 2025?

[@edamameme1789]

you're talking about a very small segment of condo owners who cant afford to rent it out + pay an additional $500-700 per month to carry their unit. Everyone who bought before 2022 is actually making a profit if they sell their condo now, and their costs are fully covered by their tenants. The only people who are screwed is people who bought in 2022 or later...and from that segment, only those who cannot afford what they bought, not everyone.

[@dimitrychekov1136]

@ only people who bought after 2022 are cash flow negative?

[@tudvalstone]

Because prices doubled in the last 10 years + int rates and fees.. and they're basically shoe boxes in the sky?

[@deeblack5814]

Too many small box costing too much Then add the fees

[@Pink-Sushi-jp]

Salvation is coming. BOC just dropped it by 50 pts. New construction cost is still higher than what is on sale. So the future price is going to be higher.

[@billferguson1368]

Such nonsense.

[@fingersm]

@@billferguson1368look at cities that shrank. Ir Detroit. Houses for free!! Guess the cost to buikd is negative

[@fingersm]

😂😂😂prices will go much below cost to build. Go look at history 1989-94. 1/2 off was minimum. High end was decimated. All started with condos, just like now.

[@billferguson1368]

@@fingersm Something tells me he's never seen a full-blown housing bust before.

[@justinjones5281]

@@fingersmunemployment was over 16% in Detroit alone when that happened. There is no large scale manufacturing jobs in Toronto that would disappear overnight. Detroit also went bankrupt. You do realize that the United States is different than Canada. Toronto gets most of the tax dollars from Canada. To much infrastructure to allow such a situation to occur. Can’t just point at things and say durrrrr!!!!

[@WhoTube277]

A THIRD of freehold properties in the GTA are "investor" owned? Jesus. This country's in for some severe pain to come.

[@billferguson1368]

Here in Greater Vancouver, condo asking prices are falling hard and fast, sale prices are seeing "lower highs", many units are re-selling at their 2016 purchase prices (or lower), potential buyers are now getting "more for less", inventory levels are rising, developer pre-sales are in the ditch (per MLA Canada -the umbrella org for Greater Vancouver developers- October and November pre-sales were a piddly 15% of the 2,943 new units released), buyer sentiment has quickly shifted to the downside, condo "flipping" is a long gone memory, Joe and Jane "investors" cannot compete with developer discounts and incentives (underway for quite awhile now)...this overall market is shaping up to be the biggest RE bust this region has ever seen.

[@JamesMcNeillmcneilmortgages]

Who was working at Toronto Planning?

[@1964Loukas]

There are more condos coming ( and one day soon there won't be ) ...but where are people going to buy when there is no more construction space ???? It's a " U shaped " recovery...prices will skyrocket....don't sell if are able to hold on !

[@billferguson1368]

Such nonsense; give it a rest.

[@robertscott8336]

Yes, southern Ontario, with 118 people per sq. km is the new Manhattan with 72,918 people per sq. km.

[@AliKhan-bu1fp]

It’s only a temporary blip in condo segment. Future of housing is condos. This whole idea of owning & living in single family homes is old school and impractical with sky high prices. Time to be practical and settle for less and be at peace

[@10mudpuppy]

No.1 😋

[@adamnarbeaux5898]

This isn’t new news

[@-Nab-]

2027 onward will be fantastic times again for condo investors

[@reality1984.]

Condo investors are going to get a lesson in business.

[@butwhytharum]

lmfao now you're doing power of sale... also known as the bank is owed money and they are forcing the "owner" to sell the property they leveraged to obtain that money.

[@teamsessa]

I’ve been showing a monthly Power of Sale chart, almost every month, for over a year now.

[@andrewmccoll1582]

Condos will be the only option to homeownership in the future - it's just price. So owner occupied ratios will go up in the next few years.

[@resp0nse_beats]

When folks realize they cannot afford a home....the condo market gets pumped hard. 📈

[@billferguson1368]

Rubbish; no one "has" to buy anything let alone an overpriced condo. Some people always "have" to sell, though.

[@resp0nse_beats]

@@billferguson1368 Have fun living in a treefort then!

[@billferguson1368]

@@resp0nse_beats Yeah, sure; whatever you say.

[@hill4377]

Lmao. Why don't you do a "search" for freehome owners who borrowed against the house to buy a condo. Bahahah. And you aren't "dumping" anything. You are toast.