THIS Tesla Share Price Model PREDICTS the Future

[@Flyingbadger13]

You are a quant legend. You accurately predicted the electoral seat numbers. Very well done on the risk adjusted fair value. Beautifully done sir.

[@jobhakdi]

@@Flyingbadger13 thank you for your kind words! More coming this week :)

[@ramon2786]

Yes - Jo is a perfect candidate addition to the cyberbull team

[@gioelestendardo2819]

hyperbull I would say

[@RealRadNek]

​ @gioelestendardo2819 You ain't kiddin' on that. I'm a bull, and will be thrilled with a Cathy Wood base case or even her bear case by 2029 but $10,000 by 2030? I would definitely be a happy camper but I just can't see that. That kind of meteoric rise would have to shatter all known records in heaven and on earth from all eternity.

[@Harmsyx]

I love these kinds of videos, so glad to hear you will try to do weekly 😀

[@jobhakdi]

Thank you that’s great to hear! Yes I will get to a weekly cadence in December :)

[@johnmajewski1065]

Excellent forecasting format thanks- perfect is very difficult objective however what else is there to aim for? Thanks

[@Pcorrea908]

Looks great, Thanks Jo for your modeling

[@chuckbulot6603]

Excellent presentation with full explanation of the origin of the final numbers.

Good conclusion! In the future you need to be a capitalist. If you have a high status, high paid occupation now doesn't matter, if you only spend your money. Investors will rule the future.

[@kingjtjt]

Great Video Jo, you are really really good at forcasting and working with data and probabilities. What I am wondering is, you did not put in macro for risks I believe. However isn’t it realistic that some bigger Macro Crash will happen in the coming years or do you think that’s not likely or it will not impact Tesla or the stock price to much at least not for optimus or robotaxi, other risks I would have in mind would be war and maybe issues developing between musk and trump which is unlikely imo but possible

[@MatchaCocoaDog]

I sure hope so! Fingers crossed!

I am really looking forward to an update and some sensitivity analysis. Thanks for the great work, Jo!

[@kingfish806]

Spot on including risk into the model. I model and revise constantly. I do it because my largest fear is selling too early. Good stuff young man✊

[@jobhakdi]

I am not selling this thing any time soon - I think I am actually being conservative and especially FSD will be likely be de-risked significantly in the next 6 months. If Optimus Risk goes down to 20% and FSD to 30% over the next 12 months, all these numbers effectively double. But I am disciplined about taking off risk, it needs to be clearly proven and visible improvements.

[@maybesomething555]

It's been a week already. Can't waint for another video!

[@jobhakdi]

This week is FIRE, I will be live every day for the first time - I started with the new "Tesla Trading Monday" video today to kick off the $TSLA week. Tmw comes another trading video, and then we are going more strategic about Robots, Civilization and Babies (on Friday!)

[@mipaco01]

Thanks! I like the no emotion fact-based approach. Keep up the good work!

[@jobhakdi]

I am all for emotions but for predictions and modeling the future they have to stay in the waiting room ;)

[@Elizabeth-vl5lb]

why only 1,000 thumbs up. Mr. Bhakdi is a spot on genius.

[@jobhakdi]

Thank you :) I really appreciate it

[@newby_tradr2883]

Great breakdown. Thank you for sharing. Any thoughts on revenues generated from licensing the FSD technology to other manufacturers?

[@jobhakdi]

I can cover this in a future video - short version: it’s only a marginal addition (in Tesla terms) but a very nice source of additional cash flow.

[@newby_tradr2883]

@@jobhakdi I see, thank you for that. Are the legacy auto manufacturers days numbered? Also, that was a great conversation you had with Pejjy. You're insights are mind blowing; especially the impact that Optimus will have in our society, industry & economy. Thank you again.

[@jaylinn416]

Very helpful analysis. Thank you!

[@mrmarkyrichards]

Exceptional work - truly exceptional Work 🙏

[@jobhakdi]

Thank you, I appreciate that!

[@cybergigafactory]

You are the Warren Buffet of the future 😂 Hopefully not as dead 😎 Thanks for your model, great assumptions.

[@jobhakdi]

Since I am the Warren Buffet of the future, I still have some time left to live ;) Thank you for your great feedback

[@MrSportsandmore]

Vielen Dank für dieses tolle Video! Lg aus der Schweiz....

[@jobhakdi]

Oh wie schön, Zuschauer aus dr Schweiz! Liebe Gruesse aus Texas :)

[@lukasfoo]

I like your thinking. I hope your projection are right for FSD and Optimus.

[@maybesomething555]

JO, thank you so much for this content! This exactly what was missing in the community- going into details of these models. Can't wait for another episode!

[@jobhakdi]

Thank you for this great feedback! I think more precise and quantitative content is key, we have a lot qualitative discussions from the other channels (which I like and use), but my job is to translate all of this noise and signal into numbers, timelines and thresholds so we can take effective action.

[@johnomalley3795]

Yes, I hear you

[@trent_carter]

I really love the way you model DCF. And yes, without a time for both price target and the DCF timeline the numbers aren’t relevant so good job.

[@salcipres8556]

No - Very glad to find your content. You’re pragmatic and data driven risk based analytics are a breath of fresh air in what can be a sea of snake and mirrors. I love the living and learning model approach your are taking along with the non financial big picture perspective you offer for contemplation. Well done. Enjoy Austin and Lakeway. I lived in Cedar Park for 20 years. It’s evolved a lot and is still a very nice place to live. It’s a bit land locked for me now, but I visit family and enjoy the culture. Hook’m Horns!

[@jobhakdi]

Thanks Sal, and great to meet you! Stay tuned for more :)

[@mickeymcintire7621]

Great content. Glad I found it. Matching the technicals as well.

[@franksfortnitegamingchanne4229]

Very enjoyable video Jo, have subscribed

[@jobhakdi]

Thank you and welcome on board!

[@composer7325]

Excellent , thank you.

[@julianrobinsonespino]

Thank you Jo for simplifying complex subject like price modeling for a long term Tesla bull like myself who’s conviction is based mostly if not all on fundamentals and belief in the vision. This further consolidates that conviction.

[@mrapp8918]

Vielen Dank, Herr Bhakdi. Sehr nützlich! 💪🧠💰🤖🏎️

[@jobhakdi]

Sehr gerne !

[@benashenden-g4j]

great analysis as always Jo, thanks mate

[@jobhakdi]

Very welcome

[@m5dragontechsavvy399]

Awesome analysis and explanation on future $ targets. Thank You for sharing !

[@MrKatanaSan]

Jo - You need to be invited in the Cyberbull team! Nicely done, very clearly explained - Thank you sir!!

[@jobhakdi]

Tell them! I am happy to come on. I have some interviews with multiple cyberbulls (Herbert, Brian, Xander, Jeff ) coming out hopefully this weekend, I met them at the Tesla event in San Louis Obispo earlier this year.

[@gustavodiaz4689]

Been looking forward to this

[@kundic4647]

Just wondering which past modeling works that you;ve done, so we can compare with this work on Tesla? Say, did you do AMZN, SHOP, TTD, PLTR etc etc. to see if your modeling really works. THANKS MUCH!

[@jobhakdi]

@@kundic4647 I am very focused on Tesla since that’s (by far) the best return/risk ratio in the market I can find. I will have every Monday a weekly trading strategy coming up and also mention my performance (alpha over a Tesla core position) for transparency

[@Swizzenator]

Well done Jo. What happens when the stock splits?

[@jobhakdi]

There will be many stock splits along the way - my price target assumes of course no split, but splits are easy to calculate. If the stock splits 2:1 and then 5:1 again, a 10,000 PT becomes a 1,000 PT for the stock after the split. Technically, splits tend to lead to short term rallies but that’s just a side note and doesn’t matter long term

[@Swizzenator]

@@jobhakdi Thank you. Is there a formula when stocks split or random to each individual business?

[@jsprowse]

@@Swizzenator Stock splits are done by the company at their own discretion, there is not formula or requirement. It is usually done to encourage retail participation and keep the price under a few hundred dollars so the average joe can buy some shares, but this is less of an issue now that you can buy partial shares for any amount of cash. More critical is a reverse split, where the stock price drops so violently that the company has to combine multiple shares into one share in order to keep the stock price high enough to stay listed on a given exchange (see: Nikola).

[@Swizzenator]

@@jsprowse Big thanks for educating us new folks.

[@OptimusPrime.]

Fantastic models. Would it be possible to know how you projected revenue from Robotaxi and Optimus bots? Another analyst has assumed that Tesla will "lease" these and manage fleets. I have not heard Elon mention this apart from only selling what they make. This means a vast difference in revenue. Maybe its worth doing 2 price projection models, one if Tesla lease Robotaxi/ bots and another if they only sell them. Thanks for all your work.

[@jobhakdi]

Yes, I will go deeper into the model and each revenue stream, starting this Thursday for FSD when I discuss a HARD CATALYST that was just unlocked by Tesla that is overlooked!

[@OptimusPrime.]

@ legend, thank you. I just subbed so I don’t miss it :)

[@jasiaci1]

Brillant video, well done!

[@jobhakdi]

Glad you enjoyed it and thanks for watching !

[@robbstewart921]

Great video and love the call out on Adam Jonas.

[@jobhakdi]

Haha yes that was fun. To his defense, he is the first to stick his Wall Street neck out for Optimus, which is laudable. But saying 485 and then discounting to zero makes literally no sense

[@robinblaauw8104]

Its funny how just now we are trying to model in Optimus. Knowing elon once we finally realy understand the impact of optimus he discovers a new businessmodel 😂 Like going into passanger carying flying drones as an example or something else creazy.

[@marythetallone02]

Great video! Great idea! I think the key man risk is much higher and the competition is lower, but I love the idea of assigning a risk factor to help estimate the future price. There's probably also a 1% catastrophe risk, but we aren't due for another one of those til next decade.

[@jobhakdi]

The key man risk seems high, but when you look historically which great entrepreneurs died, there are basically no examples. Steve Jobs doesn't count, because it wasn't sudden and there was half a decade of preparation for the transition. That's (in a macabre) way a best case scenario, because the founder becomes aware that transition needs to be very well and urgently organized.

[@bnjiodyn]

Love it! I founded and ran a robotics startup years ago within a big tech skunkworks -- it would have been awesome if the corporation had any vision and courage but instead decided to focus R&D on their core (legacy) business. I also have strong conviction that bots will start scaling long before robotaxi. Bots can make a lot of mistakes while still forcing adoption. They can be inferior to humans in every way as long as their COGS ratio is better -- which isn't hard to do in America (especially if we reduce immigration).

[@bnjiodyn]

I have a much lower the risk from competition though, it's highly unlikely foreign bots (esp Chinese) will be allowed at scale in the US -- because of national security, it's like having a draft army on call.

[@adolfocano8690]

I am not an expert but it looks pretty good to me, good job! 👍

[@ellapario6315]

Thanks much for so generously sharing this interesting approach. I wonder if it makes sense to time weight the risk. So the risk of certain events like tech failure is higher in the early years and decreases as time goes on. Just a thought !

[@jobhakdi]

That's certainly correct - at the same time, keeping models simple makes them sometimes more effective. I rather wait until we have a de-risking event, then adjust the numbers and they all go up - makes it more obvious how powerful these events are.

[@LanceWhite]

Following closely Jo! You mention the biggest thing for short term divergence from your model I think and that is sentiment driven buying and selling pressures. Agree there should be a magnetic pull back to the model overall. Ideally a second set of numbers would be following this with a real time data feed from something like X and the say the options market or other sources that fed a Neural Net or ML model to forecast this divergence factor. Having said that. I think what you are doing is the most important forward price data of the two. Thanks again Jo!

[@jobhakdi]

@@LanceWhite you are welcome! I am thinking about posting deltas between current stock price and my trajectory in X

[@jkimo1178]

Jo, great content. You need more exposure. Perhaps you can get on with "Brighter with Herbert" and the Cyberbulls as a guest. Also, a conversations between Cern Basher and yourself would be highly informative. Have him on as a guest.

[@jobhakdi]

That’s a great idea - I have an interview I did with Herbert and the cyber bulls come out next week what yes I will work on getting together with Herbert. Cern would also be great, and Adam Jonas and Dan Ives

[@jkimo1178]

@@jobhakdi Oh great.... I also emailed Dillon Loomis from Electrified. I think you'd be good on his channel as well. Sure hope you are correct about the future stock price -- I have quite a few shares.

[@StewartRoatan]

Thank you for this video. Good work.

[@nigelsmith186]

Looks good to me - I'll take it any day.

[@TonyaPenelope]

I literally had to pull over while driving to let this sink in.

[@jobhakdi]

You mean you don't have autopilot ;) glad you liked it!

[@andych82tube]

Thanks for sharing your model, would love to hear how you trade the stock, options, leverage, etc. Obviously, not financial advice

[@jobhakdi]

@@andych82tube tune in this week, just published a video on tactical options and another coming tmw. Then one weekly just on trading and options

[@patricksikora4789]

Hello Jo, Zuerst einmal, Grüße aus Frankfurt! Kurze Frage, wie erklärst die die 255 B DCF Core für 2024? Hier fehlt mir der Link zu den aktuellen Quartahlszahlen/Jahreszahlen, selbst wenn wir etwas für Q4 unterstellen. Sonst ein sehr starkes Model!!! Ich würde es super finden, wenn Du verschiedene Risikostufen einbauen könntest, bspw. sehe konservativ (hohes Risiko) bis sehr niedriges Risiko, einfach, damit man verschiedene Szenarien hat. Danke Dir! Viele liebe Grüße!

[@jobhakdi]

Thank you for the great feedback! Different cases for projections are certainly possible, but at the same time I like to stick to a central predictive trajectory for demand and margin, and then adjust that single trajectory if something happens (otherwise it gets too complex and it loses power). The Core DCF model uses 2024 revenue + margin numbers and then makes some basic assumptions, including 20% annual growth long term, 8% opex and 20% gross margin. Very simple. Fundamentally, I am factoring in energy growth and improving auto positioning with OEMs going out of business, but CHina rising (kept in check by US and European tariffs)

[@chorianopoulos2002]

Fantastic job. Thank you so much!

[@chorianopoulos2002]

Jo, you mentioned a TSLA trading strategy that you were going to implement on Monday. Any further info on that?

[@jobhakdi]

You're very welcome!

[@zegoflorida]

TSLA, TSLY and a Model 3 Performance with FSD (for future robo-taxi)… multiple IRONS in this 🔥

[@jwlafferty]

I was a TSLY shareholde and then I started selling TSLL covered calls. Way more option premium and growth.

[@zegoflorida]

@ guess I should look into that as well - so many plays to be had when one has confidence in the underlying’s momentum… Bought some MSTY last month after studying what was potentially happening at MSTR. Company has been on fire since… lucky I didn’t sit that one out another month… CONY has made a nice rebound as of late as well… Guess you could say the compounding of all these eft’s (dripping the divi’s) has me fired up. Sure was a dark year up till recently - but my thesis seems to be working better now…

[@brakmaster]

Great video and a quick peek into your thought process. The only way FSD produces zero deaths is if there are no more human drivers on the road and that won't happen for at least another 20 years. FSD will ultimately need to prove that it is a better driver than 99.999% of all human drivers. When it inevitably does get in an accident the priority needs to be on occupant safety rather than the vehicle structure. I think Tesla has already made strides towards this direction and that's why it is the best when it comes to safety and crash tests. A $10.000 share price is way out there for me right now. I would be very happy if it hit $3000 though as that's when I become a millionaire based on the shares I hold today. I am still accumulating though...

[@danbrownlie]

Regarding the apparent contradiction between Adam Jonas’ optimus net present value and price target: there is no contradiction. One is what he thinks that part of the business is worth, and one is his guess about the price at a point in time. He’s not alone in thinking the market is underpricing Tesla.

[@dhui777]

Tesla is at PE about 100. I don’t think Wall Street is undervaluing Tesla.

[@jobhakdi]

My criticism is this: he says Optimus has a 485 NPV but then completely ignores that revenue stream in his PT. I know why: Wall Street analysts currently don’t price in future revenue streams (that don’t currently exist) into their models. I am calling that practice out because it’s creating the WRONG price targets

[@danbrownlie]

@ But the price target is what he thinks the price WILL be, not what he thinks it SHOULD be. If he doesn’t think the market *will* recognise the value of robots, it should not be in his price target.

[@peterdeuschle78]

Guten Tag Herr Bhakdi, habe Ihren Kanal leider erst kürzlich entdeckt und gleich abonniert - vielen Dank für Ihre super Arbeit. 2 Punkte habe ich. 1. Es gibt im deutschprachigen Raum leider kaum etwas auf dem qualitativen Niveau Ihres Kanals und vieler weiterer tollen Kanäle in Englisch (die in den Kommentaren auch schon erwähnt wurden). Wäre es auch dnekbar, dass Sie eine deutschprachige Version der Videos publizieren? 2. I disagree with you disagreeing! Es gibt nichts "perfektes" mit 0 % Sicherheitsrisiko in der Technik. Es kann nur möglichst viel getan werden, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines (schweren) Unfalls so weit wie möglich zu reduzieren. "0" wird diese Wahrscheinlichkeit nicht erreichen. So gesehen, wäre FSD nach Ihrem Ansatz nicht möglich. Ich sehen den Ansatz "FSD muss x-mal sicherer sein" für den korrekteren Ansatz. Ob das jetzt Ihren Risikoansatz von 44 % ändert oder nicht, sei dahingestellt. PS. bin trotzdem sehr dankbar für das Video und Ihre tolle Arbeit!

[@jobhakdi]

Vielen Dank! Deutschsprachig unfortunately isn't feasible (too much work to do a separate channel, and mixing content is bad for performance), but I am happy to come on as a guest with a German speaking channel - there are some cool investing ones. I am thinking about adding more commentary about geostrategic impact of the robots on Germany and Europe - there is a lot to come! Regarding 2) - perfection is important in this specific case, because the PR downside of a Robotaxi death is horrendous. There are ways to compensate the risk, mainly through remote operating teams and warning systems that make them takeover, which is what Tesla will launch mid of next year (is my bet). I observed an important signal about this and will do a video on Thursday about it

[@LightStylePro]

Thanks for sharing. I have a slight disagreement with your assumption about people. Customers who use Uber assume the driver is above average, but still not in the upper 0.001% of all drivers. I am certainly witness to this. They seem to be “above average”, maybe by one standard deviation. That’s being generous. And yet, people choose Uber under the probability of one fatality per every 600,000 miles traveled.

[@jobhakdi]

@@LightStylePro my concern is that an accident with death or injury with no driver present will create horrendous headlines and they basically need to avoid this even at scale for the first few years. That’s very very difficult and requires to be thousands of times safer than human drivers

[@kellquist2210]

Regarding Perfect Robotaxi. I do not think that you need perfect. In rail you work with SIL levels that basically tells how safe a system must be. in Rail often SIL4 for the most critical systems .

[@jobhakdi]

You solve the problem with remote operating teams who take over - Check back on Thursday for an in-depth video on this.

[@4jgh]

Wow, wow, wow, yippee yo yippee yay🎉

[@keithgilbert835]

So I should keep holding my 4000 shares? Ha😊

[@jobhakdi]

Wow 4,000 is pretty good! No investment advice on this channel, but …. Congrats

[@karltownsend7838]

Next 5-10 year market cap Vehicles $1T Energy $1T FSD/Autonomy/Robotaxi $5T Optimus $25T Total $36T

[@fernandoalcoverde399]

Do you think buying Tesla right now at 344 is too expensive? Do you think the stock price will drop down to 200-250 again?

[@oggyoggy1299]

@@fernandoalcoverde399 It won’t go under $300 again.

[@mariocorrea5848]

You are excellent

[@jobhakdi]

@@mariocorrea5848 haha that’s very nice to hear, thank you for your kind words

[@karlschleifenbaum5793]

This was a good model with a level-headed approach. I think the political involvement of Elon might raise the key man risk, though.

[@goukux5908]

Bhakdi in my limited experience has been right more than he's been wrong so it wouldn't surprise me if this happens. He should publish a tracking sheet of predictions he's made and actual outcomes. I think it would shine him in a very good light.

[@jobhakdi]

Thank you that’s very kind. My X account is a good ledger and I am trying to document it there publicly.

[@johannel8104]

Thanks Jo. You have a good track record on major predictions and although I find some of your statements and the values here ludicrous, I hope you are somewhat right! FSD is not as risky as you think. People have died in many semi-autonomous vehicles already and many other accidents and inconveniences have been caused by these vehicles. You expect FSD to be perfect. Define perfect. Something that never breaks, never fails, always does exactly what it should, requires no maintenance, cannot be improved ever and lasts forever? Name me ONE perfect product that existed in all of history or today? Perfect is a fantasy. People said the same about automobiles when horses where the status quo - it was called 'a menace' because of the dangers it posed. Also, I find the notion that Optimus will be for sale within a year ridiculous. Optimus cannot even walk properly. It cannot match a human in general dexterity, strength, finesse and speed in basic actions, not to mention the actual understanding and skill to do anything useful. Tele-operations use is the only way for at least another 3 years. The physical mechanics of the bot are still lacking and won't catch up for another few years. IMO you underestimate FSD and over-estimate Optimus. I have been using FSD v12.5.6.3 since last Wednesday and the E2E highway stack is TRANSFORMATIONAL! City driving is much smoother too but functionally not better on this version because the focus was on getting the first iteration of E2E highway into users hands. V13 will do for city driving what v12.5.6.3 did for highway driving IMO. And within 3 months I think it will approach 10k disengagement free miles in all but the most trying conditions. Reducing 3k global auto deaths per day and reducing the 10k people daily getting permanent disabilities from auto accidents is more important than perfection. Don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. NO technology is perfect. Not even close. Sorry, but it's an absurd notion. I still hope you are correct on the finances, but your takes on FSD needing to be perfect and Optimus being in production and for sale within a year is just not sensible to me. Of course I am not as smart as you (I really respect your intelligence) and I am a bit more of a pessimist, but I cannot buy these two horses.

[@jobhakdi]

Great points! My concern with FSD is public perception - I know nothing can be perfect, and I am aware FSD made amazing progress. I am just simulating what happens once the first major accident with human damage occurs - it’s going to be very bad and potentially set back regulatory approval . Optimus, on the other hand, faces much less of that risk. When it comes to projected progress for Optimus, I am factoring in an exponential progress trajectory because of what I see in AI. It seems far fetched that Optimus is ready to sell (as a pilot) end of 2025 , but I do think I will be roughly right about it (maybe early 2026). There are too many reasons , both carrots and sticks , why Tesla has to move fast; and the technology is on a massively exponential trajectory

[@johannel8104]

@@jobhakdi Thanks Joe. Optimus has its dangers too. What if it falls on a (frail) person and injures it? Worse, what if it accidentally drops and kills a baby? That will be waaaaaaaaay worse than FSD causing a lethal accident. I agree. Public outrage against FSD after a fatal accident will be bad and amplified by the fraudulent media. But regulators and sober minds and powerful people who want to make money from this will push through this if FSD is quantifiably safer than human driving. And. When people use it they will WANT it to be legal. Right now v12.5.6.3 is BONKERS on the highway specifically. City street driving will get there soon too AND CONTINUE TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY. TSLA will hit $1000 next year. People have already died using FSD and AP or when Teslas have caught on fire. The media has done their utmost to spin every occurrence of these events as devastating and 'Tesla bad'. Unsupervised FSD killing humans is unavoidable (all technologies kill people or get used to kill people in some way shape or form). Luddites will Luddite and human psychology doesn't change. As for Optimus. Even if AI is improving fast enough to enable rapid and effective training by late next year, the mechanics of Optimus will not be good enough by then. Optimus is still way too slow and fragile and the hardware part of it won't be reasonably solved for 24+ months IMO. But. I hope you are right. Optimus is worth 5x to 10x FSD and Robotaxis.

[@anandaweliwita404]

👍👍👍

[@quaterman1270]

I don't know if you are doing this, but you have to adjust the risk for later years on the price. I would for example assume that by 2028 the regulation and technology risk should be removed. I would actually thinkg 2026 but just as an example.

[@jobhakdi]

You are correct - this is the first iteration of the model and there is much more to do - but everything I need to add will just further increase the future share price. So this is the first take version with a conservative bias

[@josephchan2050]

This is great .How about recession ? it can cot down he price 50% easy.

[@jobhakdi]

Depending on how severe it is, a recession doesn’t impact my model too much on a strategic level. But you are right in the short term (

[@josephchan2050]

@@jobhakdi ; Thanks , So, roughly when will recession next year and will this also occur in year 2026 ?

[@michaelbone6894]

Don't know why everyone doesn't model like this. It's logical and quite simple. It's just the basic statistical concept of expected value applied to company value.

[@jobhakdi]

Exactly - what I found is that great modeling doesn’t use complex components, but becomes complex because of the multiple layers of components (which each one being simple as a standalone). Another challenge for WS analysts is that my models use a certain discretion (for example, the risk in each dimension: that number is a bit of a gut feeling exercise), which makes my models much more accurate, but also harder to defend for institutions. Banks want highly defensible models that are mostly wrong, rather than discretionary models that are correct

[@RealRadNek]

I sure hope your model is right but I do have reservations as you model far exceeds the Cathy Wood model.

[@jasiaci1]

Cathy Wood doesn't model Optimus just Core and FSD

[@RealRadNek]

@@jasiaci1yes, I knew that but Cern Basher does and they discount heavily because it is unknown what it will ultimately be, share price that is. Company valuation Cern does but price prediction he does not because the share price is unpredictable. Just stick with Tesla as they continue to execute and even buying at $350 today, you will have at least a 5 bagger by 2030. Just saying, let’s not get to carried away. There are always unknowns.

[@jasiaci1]

@@RealRadNek Agreed, a bagger for 5X by 2030. I'm confident 5X to 30X band by 2030 is not completely absurd. I hope so, I have 19,590 reasons (shares) to believe in it 😀. Also, the world will be a more prosperous, safer and hopefully happier place should Elon/Tesla execute flawlessly!

[@RealRadNek]

@ that’s a boatload of shares. I thought I had a boatload. At $1000/share I will retire with much more than I thought possible. Needless to say, my wife and I are talking about starting a foundation to give a lot of it away. Trying to figure out how to leverage the lion’s share for Jesus. It will be fun giving it away to make an eternal impact in people’s lives across the world.

[@jobhakdi]

CERN does a great job, but his discounting model is a bit crude - he mixes cost of capital with actual risk which makes it more vague and confusing, and uses a 10-14% discount rate. It’s cleaner imo to separate the different dimensions of discounting (risk vs cost of capital) out. Company valuation and share price are pretty much interchangeable btw - I am trying to be as clean and clear as possible and always strive to get to a clear share price target on a time line

[@Michael-il5wd]

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[@Fearinator]

Hi mate, great model! Iv had similar predictions on much more simple math, and I’m IN. 1/3 of my assets and 1/3 of my retirement. Here what concerns me, and would be great for someone to cover. Tesla is going to be the biggest company ever, but how big can it get when it starts to absorb all the investment cash. Even if the share price only gets to 10k that’s a 40t market cap. 33 Apples or almost as big as the entire current US stock market. That means new money needs to come into the market, right now there is about 6t on the sidelines… mayyybe if the whole world starts allocating to Tesla (and they will) there is probably enough liquidity to grow to here. But even a conservative 30k in the 2030s share price is a MC of 120t, that’s bigger than all the world’s stock markets. I was looking for some basic measures to put this into perspective next to. There is only 200t “money” in the world. All investments at 0.5 - 1t …? Yes, especially bots in the long term will vastly expand productivity, but in the shorts term it’s going to replace more jobs than we invent new ones and put large pressure on government services who’s tax revenue from people labour diminishes while their burden like a UBI / social security will increase. If you have any thoughts around this or have modelled anything I would be very interested in them.

[@jasiaci1]

You make some great points, I have Jo reads them

[@jobhakdi]

I do ! Response above

[@jobhakdi]

Good points. 1) the market cap of a company is not the money that has to go into it. Technically, you could get to 100T with just you paying me 100$ for a Tesla stock I sell you for $100, assuming a lot of stock splits , if no one else trades. In other words, all these market caps are not really needing that amount of money in the market. It’s just a consensus of buyers and sellers at any given point. This consensus over time approximates a 10 year DCF value. In order to get to let’s say 100T, all Tesla has to do is to convince everyone that it will generate 100T in discounted cash flow over the next ten years.

[@simonmeade6611]

Jo you are incorrect saying Robotaxis need to be thousands of times better and basically zero chance of fatalities. If you can reduce the chance of death or injury by say 50% you would do it. On your logic we would not have seat belts or airbags as people still die.

[@jobhakdi]

I disagree - the reason being that I am thinking about PR risk. Imagine there is a robotaxi fatality (one). It’s going to be horrible and escalate right to the regulators. In politics, it’s not about statistics, it’s about emotions, votes and media

[@marks3453]

God forbid it happens but what is the share worth if something bad does happen to Elon? Is there a contingency plan for him? Does someone else take over the future plan of Tesla?Always wise to prepare. Thoughts??

[@jochemjellema2663]

Governments that want to limit the number of robots to protect human jobs should certainly be taken into account!!! I think that is the biggest risk

[@jobhakdi]

I have two videos coming that discuss the geostrategic impact of humanoids. Bottom line: governments will be forced to embrace maximum implementation and rollout speed of robots!

[@natsidruk86]

2500 is more than enough for me. 10 000, then i have to burn the money to spend it all LOL

[@LarryH49]

It is not possible to have no deaths be FSD. If it is 1000 or 2000 killed per year but motor vehicle deaths of the rest decrease from 40,000 per year to 22,000 per year then it would be worthwhile.

[@jobhakdi]

I agree that is will be very very difficult to get to zero. But think about it: a single death by robotaxi will be a giant PR disaster. Just imagine the headlines. The numbers are one thing, but public perception is another. I think it’s a problem we have to think through as Tesla shareholders

[@dhui777]

You seem way too optimistic on Optimus. Tesla is not the only company making and selling robots. Tesla does not have a clear lead in robotics like it has in EVs

[@dougm659]

Oh but it does…Tesla has the biggest data set on Earth which it feed to its robots so that they understand the world around them and they are adding to that data on a massive scale every day! No one is within a light year of them! Who else can manufacture robots at gigantic scale as quickly as Tesla? No one!

[@gandyo]

​​@@dougm659not only a data lead. Tesla has a manufacturing lead too. Nobody can scale up and mass manufacture like Tesla can.

[@jobhakdi]

I will do more videos on this - robots are not just hardware , and not just hardware with AI , but three layers : hardware, AI and the application layer. The latter is very poorly understood and described, but will be the central value driver. In this application game , NOONE will use Chinese robots for security reasons. And the only true competition Tesla has in china. Therefore, Tesla will get close to a quasi monopoly in Europe, US and India

[@dhui777]

@@dougm659 Tesla certainly has more data than anyone on driving. But it’s no longer true for robotics. Similarly, Tesla has lead in mass manufacturing vehicles but not robots, though some experience can carry over. However, I do agree tgst Tesla has lead on computational power to train AI over other robotic companies.

[@dougm659]

@@dhui777 each robot that Boston dynamics make costs them over $250k and they’ve been making robots for over fifteen years….Tesla will be making robots for under $20k each within a year and they only started making them a little over two years ago….it’s not a contest!

[@gioelestendardo2819]

man, I really hope you're right but I'm very sure you'll be wrong (I'm a shareholder too)

[@jobhakdi]

In very sure I am right - I will keep covering this weekly and adjust the risk model accordingly

[@GaminHasard]

Technology risk would be an ai that can understand driving without the need to train on billion of miles of data.

[@MeditationMindless]

So based on this my goal is 50 shares then retire 2030 :D

[@ARNOLD5698]

Steve Jobs died…

[@ssing7113]

I agree with FSD being longer and harder then people think. I think the same with robotics. In a fantasy we’d have one bot in reality we have hundreds of different robot designs for task specific. We haven’t found a good solution for an all in one design. And I don’t think that includes Optimus. Also I think Elon risk needs to be far higher. The guy doesn’t test healthy. Overworks. Over stresses. And now with republican more death threats should occur. . He passes we all know no one can replace him in intelligence. We just hope they get a Tim cookie that can print 💰 💰 💰 I cannot agree with pricing as well. The multiples and P/E would be way way too high for comfort given FSD is far out. We have only 4 gigafactories. I’d say cut everything in half… that’s its true values. As Tesla is far from a money printer. Also the transition to no one owning cars which all the rich will have their rolls Royce chauffeurs. That rollout would take a minimum of 60 years. As some keep cars for 10-15 years. Gas is not going away anytime ever soon . . I don’t see it. I have millions in with one stock ( Tesla ) but it’s hype train right now like peak $420 pricing. We’re having to buy down credits and give free FSD. Far from a mega P/E valuation

[@mikekeithr]

There is not even close to that much $ in the world.

[@jobhakdi]

Not yet. Money is a function of economic value, and economic value is a function of value creation, which is a function of labor and technology. With a massive explosion of qualified labor , we will see a massive expansion of value

[@omarkraidie]

Tesla was $180 literally a few months ago AND nothing has fundamentally changed with the business :D. So buy at $180-200 else better opportunities LMAO.

[@Wynzi]

some risk factors has changed like regulatory/politics.

[@organic3132]

Do you even know how many trillions of dollars is that? 😅 that’s simply impossible

[@jobhakdi]

It's 30x from here, meaning $30T. Imagine telling someone in the 1950ies the earth would have 8B humans, US GDP would be $30T 70 years later - they would not have believed it. What we are seeing now is a 10x acceleration (at least) of these timelines. Wait and see....

[@organic3132]

@ I agree, but from 1950s until today we have 70 years. And you are predicting that price for next 6-7 years.

[@chris.foreal]

My model predicts TESLA @ $50k/share Two Days Before the Day After Tomorrow

[@jasiaci1]

Very Witty!

[@loweryjk]

Need a link to your x account

[@jobhakdi]

X.com/jobhakdi