TIMMY SAYS - THE SEALED MAGIC MARKET IS A BUBBLE

[@Mid-Tyr]

“Throne of Eldraine, also known as Throne of Eldraine.” Me: “Hmmm, yes. The floor is made of floor.”

[@TenTiggers]

As he grinned his Leonin grin

[@Jaqen-HGhar]

reading the card explains the card

[@latenite.comics4378]

Fact: There are over 80 brands of bottled water in the US alone; crack a fresh bottle open and the “value” goes down 100%. We are all paying for that factory sealed popping sound. ;D I miss the smell of VHS tapes

[@latenite.comics4378]

When is the water bubble gonna pop? lool

[@rocknroller167]

I have to return some videotapes.

[@Lucasacp]

That was not just a Magic video. Not just a financial lesson video. That was a life lesson. Thank you for sharing this! The lessons came in a good and needed moment for me. Keep up the good work! Love your videos and I share them among my fellow brazilian friends that love Magic and business!

[@thealancorp.2394]

The way we portray time is a deception. A leveraged illusion.

[@joshuanorris5860]

Thats some deep thoughts there timmey :P

[@fsmoura]

ur mom leveraged

[@ThaDarkSideBlues]

i think Rudy gets drunk then rants on KZbin

[@ravenatog]

Sounds like my spirit animal

[@andrewo7318]

I think he does a few sniffle bombs

[@ThaDarkSideBlues]

@@ravenatog mine too

[@ThaDarkSideBlues]

@@andrewo7318 haha

[@djdrack4681]

I'm interested to know if Rudy actually even drinks. Despite the 'Rudy' cliches, I suspect he may very well not drink at all, or very little.

[@TealGaming-fb8bs]

Rudy looks like a Division 3 Football coach.

[@jarrettdiperna8370]

"OR some of you 3.6969% women out there. You're not *all* angels. I'm onto you!!" And. "You're probably going to get the exact same return researching, or working, or doing something legitimate." Best lines in the vid. 10/10 Rudy lesson, will watch again.

[@kingkrankSPW]

i've been subbed to Rudy for literal years and have never seen a video where i had even the slightest idea what he talking about

[@joshuanorris5860]

R u a timmey?

[@JamesBrown-ym3tc]

Taco brain?

[@danmayberry6717]

Rudy, you are a damn good educator. Thank you for sharing knowledge and wisdom. Rudy for President 2024!

[@FanEAW]

RUDY FFS STOP HYPING FALLEN EMPIRES, we know your trying to get rid of that garbage fire.

[@fsmoura]

Hell yeah FFS. I ain't taking any chances, though. I'm doubling my position on it ASAP.

[@andrewmartin4586]

I like how he randomly changes which line means sealed and which line means expected value

[@timothyswindell4924]

Andrew it made more sense when he reversed it to me. lol.

[@fsmoura]

_Random Rudy_ with _Chaotic Investments_

[@aidancohen7533]

ye the switching was waky

[@ClausRow]

Rudy is just a good dude. I love it and I love magic.

[@garryarganis5801]

to be honest i subbed to this channel for the booster openings but dude what a great video.

[@DM-qm5sc]

Rudy has been making videos like this lately and I think that if we keep upvoting and saying good things he will keep it up

[@filippodardi2180]

I'm a filthy first world millennial which came on board for the Lilis and giggities, but goddamn doesn't this hairy man give solid advice.

[@jakx2ob]

I think there is still an old video were he explains that he won't open booster boxes on camera.

[@joshuanorris5860]

Ugh... Timmies....

[@opticnirvana]

@@jakx2ob Yes, they are still on here at the beginning, stated there were too many channels doing that. ...but hey, making money just opening a box. Sounds like a good investment of time on another person's dime.

[@Stormskip]

Instructions unclear: Licked dirt and hugged a cactus. I suddenly don't feel like it's a beautiful world anymore

[@Futureguitarist15]

I'm sure people in 2005 would have laughed if you told them OG ravnica would be $700+ in 15 years. I talked to an MTG veteran once who said they used to write on wastelands as proxy cards because they were shit cards back then... Hindsight is always 20/20.

[@dayz112]

in 2001 i bought 60 wastelands at very low price. Too bad i sold them all in 2012 :(

[@bradwynarts7047]

As a guy that bought OG ravnica and sat on it for 6 years, selling at around $400 a box, no it was obvious if you paid attention. I got the idea of buy and hold seeing Urza's Saga boxes three years out of print selling for $250, which during print was about $65 a box at a LGS. I also heard about a shop owner holding multiple cases of sets for years and then selling them. Combining the two, I did it. Ravnica block, Time Spiral, Mirrodin, some old ball boxes as well. I got a pre order deal for Khans at I think 540 a case when I saw they had fetches, running to the store on a Sunday because it was about $25 off everyone else's pre orders. I did it as a long term hold. There's been squat for movement until Pioneer. I looked a couple months back and I think it was like $110 a box. Now SCG has them at $180 sold out. It took much longer to get that doubling than I thought I would, but I did get it, and faster than the stock market too. And I'll keep them until I either really need the money, or I'm looking to a flip and reinvest. Hell, if I had the spare capital, I'd buy another case or 4. There is plenty of money sitting on the table right now with a brand new format springing up.

[@mikelegault9344]

You're a shining light against ignorance. I'm glad you do what you do.

[@FecklessSpoon]

anyone else watching this video in 2030 when Modern Horizons 2019 is $1000 a box>

[@jeremyt2904]

Watching in 2021 and Fallen Empires is $1000.

[@scratchking3205]

Rudy, I invested my 401k in to Fallen Empires. Am I going to be rich? My 401k was $18.19

[@ang3r3dv3t]

Love this video Rudy! I have shared it so much. This is one of the most common discussions. This breaks it down and helps see the inner workings. Also 25:32 is hilarious hehe

[@CHRISG612]

The problem with this video is it doesn't take into account demand. Supply may dry up but so will demand as the Magic population die out

[@dimitriousdevilboon7714]

Exactly. Find me someone who will pay $1000 for a box of Lorwyn.

[@blindey]

It could. I think people will still want stuff if it dies. But it could. It'll be a fun ride till it does, for me anyway. And idk about 1000 but a few boxes were sold over this month in the last few days for 800.

[@sherwoodccm]

Totally. If this was true, he would never sell any booster boxes of recent sets because he’d be giving up huge profits. And the people willing to pay for Revised or Fallen Empires will eventually get older, and new magic players won’t feel any nostalgia for the old sets. Nevermind the impact of digital only magic, which might not ever replace cardboard but will still be how many kids learn.

[@TK_GX]

i randomly found this old video. really good advice. you never know what the future will bring. be careful but be mindful.

[@brettboylen3231]

Thanks for the longer videos in this style, Rudy,

[@aloneiplay26]

I only watch Rudy cause he can rant for 30minutes straight with no awkward silence or editing.

[@2Lainz]

I wish I had this power.

[@PawzBrownMTG]

Thanks RUDY your a good man. Appreciate all you speak about

[@josephpaivajr4782]

Rudy tries and keeps it real with us with small bits of satyr here and there. Gotta lvoe it

[@rwxstudio7173]

That's so weird. You mention gas station robberies and one of the stations I work at got robbed this morning.

[@muramasa24]

Thank you for that knowledge sir.

[@woody1337lol]

woah what a suprise! prices go up when stuff gets more rare, who would have thought that after watching this channel for 3 years

[@Aaron-wv5si]

I think some of your viewers are also greatly undervaluing the price of nostalgia. I grew up playing this game in the mid 90s and I’m old enough to look back on those times fondly. A couple hundred bucks to draft with my brothers and relive the good old days, even for just a night, is no big deal to me. I’ll remember that night for a long time to come, there are a lot less valuable things I could spend the money on in that regard.

[@ih8people]

The next un-set should have a mythic rare named "Rudy, Evil Investor" costed .69{B}{B}{B}

[@FreneticZetetic]

"Everything is relative, and it's very difficult for the human mind to accept that." Brilliant.

[@JeffBoski]

Here for the heist strategy

[@robertcarter4212]

"Why would anyone pay to crack these boxes?" You never smelled a pack fresh card from the 90s? Youre missing out. That scent is physical joy

[@fsmoura]

and aphrodisiac

[@TheHiobs]

I love fallen empires, i have a sealed Box at Home. In EU its even more expansive per Box FE

[@Scorch428]

You have to factor in , tho, that thousands more people are holding boxes today, especially after 2015. This means the supply will be greater for longer. So when Modern Horizons becomes as old as Revised is, it might not be worth the 7k

[@Scorch428]

The reason those old boxes were worth so much is that almost NO ONE was holding them back then. When it comes to making money, you always have to be first at something. After its public knowledge, its too late for the big bucks. You get the chump change.

[@ANGunz24]

Paying for old sealed product is buying an experience not an object. Drafting Urza's, cracking childhood packs, etc. People pay for the experience not the resale value.

[@DeMichelePoker]

Hi Rudy, here is something for you to consider. The value of sealed product is literally the cost of production + extra fees that people are willing to pay on top of it. If the cost of production for printing boxes of cards goes down, there will be more in circulation, and the price may drop. If someone were able to compete with WOTC on price for packs by selling packs for $1 a piece of their own game, Wizards might have to drop their own prices down to match the new gaming company. The reason why packs currently cost about $2.25 a piece is that it is very hard to print packs and sell them for a cheaper price than this, for anyone. This is largely because ink is so expensive. If ink were to to somehow drop in price, booster packs could also drop in price. You assume that there will always be a premium for magic cards and that the aging of these packs will make them more valuable. You may be correct. But the bottom dollar price of these packs is what is costs to make them.

[@lancetibay1526]

MTG Pioneer with Michael DeMichele What you are saying doesn’t contradict what he is saying - He is saying that the price of the box is relative because it’s based against time. The price of a new box can be $10 or $1,000 and it wouldn’t matter, because given enough time, the price should appreciate from it’s starting point. That’s is what he communicating here. If you have the financial wherewithal, it is better for you to invest in sealed product, than making your money flipping singles, because the amount of sealed product, with time, will decrease. And the gap between EV of a set vs the price of the box will generally increase with time - EV will either stagnate or decline while sealed boxes will continue to appreciate. This reasoning will only breakdown if WOTC, hypothetically, suddenly produces (for example) Unlimited Starter Deck Boxes and the market is not able to determine the difference between the 1993 version and the 2020 version. Then the price of Unlimited Starter Decks/Boxes will collapse because there are now more supply than before.

[@DeMichelePoker]

Lance Tibay who said that I’m trying to contradict Rudy? I’m not. I’m a big fan of his. Anyway, not everything goes up with time. Look at comic books. You can buy old ones for less than a buck. But I agree that investing in mtg boxes could be a great business plan.

[@jenniferlord1487]

Rudy is there a big price difference between Zendikar boxes w/potential treasures and those without potentials? I read that only the first wave had the treasures. If that's true, I've never understood whether there's a truly reliable way to tell the difference between the boxes.

[@dragonlord8582]

I believe Rudy did a video on the zendikar boxes and how to tell if they are first print of not. Was maybe a year ago.

[@gnome_de_guerre]

In school i kept mishearing it as Big Ass Spread. i still think of it that way in my head to this day.

[@NeoN-PeoN]

Rudy, come on. The heist ain't about the money. It's about the ride. Hit me up, grease man for hire.

[@joshuanorris5860]

Hahaha

[@Redactex]

way to keep it real rudy, youve helped me keep my life progressing, keep doing what youre doing brother.

[@AFPride0764]

Facts, i had a sealed box of M5 a few years ago and when i seen they were going to reprint sylvan library i sold the box for $400 and today the box is valued around $700. its true when he says that ppl really dont care about the cards in the box

[@kasper1787]

LOL 2022 rudy you are still here. I m Glad!!!

[@ZERO_42069]

Now in 2022 fallen empires selling for $650 to $850

[@BasedinReality1984]

As a new Timmy to the space .... these videos are great

[@bjrnlarsen4925]

Ursa sage EV 400$ , Box 3K (13%). Revised EV 1000$ Box 7000$ (14%), Tempest EV 300$ box 2000 $ (15%), Fallen Empire EV 20$ box 300$ (7%).

[@samyravs7792]

Wow

[@xslasherdreaded6476]

I love this kind of vídeos,with that you help the new players with your experience

[@jakepfeffer4836]

I’ve lost interest in magic but yet I’m still watching you because every video you teach me something new about the market and I love the way you teach it. (I plan on majoring in some business related field)

[@mtgdog5657]

At least MTG is in a better place right now than Pokémon... My God, 2019 was a shitshow for Pokémon. Makes MTG dealing with Hogaak and Oko seem trivial by comparison.

[@randomrandom1050]

Because time passing and older booster boxes became hard to find because the number of disponibility is decreasing.

[@dennisyoung6122]

Some of the prices have spiked up in the last few years. 2-3 years ago I bought a Stronghold box for 600. You needed to pull a Mox and Queen for the box to equal that total price(I pulled 2 queens and no other 50+ cards). The price started rising rapidly since then and now pulling 2 queens and 2 Mox and you will barely meet the total price, if not still lose. I see either card prices spiking upwards, or box prices spike downwards in the future.

[@Jorthax]

This is why I always buy a crate, open half the boxes, sell the middle-range stuff and hang onto the heavy hitters.

[@7Alberto7]

Alwais love to learn and have a good Rudy lesson

[@fsmoura]

3:24 _let's put it right in the middle_ that's what she said

[@fancyjoey9102]

just checked the boxes are going for almost 900$. legend

[@repacharge431]

The time vs timmy graph aggravates me to no end

[@digitalscribbler68]

Rudy, why does the six-year period from 1994 to 2000 have the same length along your x axis as the 20-year period from 2000 to 2020? We need to talk about your charting skills.

[@fsmoura]

log scale

[@MRYAYOR]

Love the long videos, Keep it up Rudy!!

[@fsmoura]

Rudy's metaphors involve alligators because he lives in Florida.

[@berndschmid8211]

can you say how much inflation is effecting the price?

[@Mktwiz99]

Why are magic singles so cheap with the box price so expensive? Makes no sense to me I’m a Pokémon collector and this would never happen in Pokémon for a sealed box to grow in value and the cards singles to decline

[@nicholasvogel9783]

simple supply, every time a box is opened there are less boxes thus increasing the price. but at the same time there are now more card dropping the card price.

[@Mktwiz99]

@@nicholasvogel9783 so why would anybody every buy the box ? Just buy the single magic cards you like and enjoy 😂 for example the Pokémon booster boxes always have at least 1 or maybe even 2 cards that sold as singles would be more expensive than the total box price. This is why people still buy Pokémon boxes for the chase cards that make it all worthwhile

[@nicholasvogel9783]

@@Mktwiz99 that's the difference between players and investors, think of it like someone that enjoys wine, they buy an old barrel of wine worth a lot and slowly enjoy drinking it themselves or with friends. An investor will look at this as insane. Same with old sealed, those players have fun and thrill by opening boxes.

[@Mktwiz99]

@@nicholasvogel9783 but you wouldn’t in your right mind buy a 1,000 dollar box knowing the best card you can possibly pull from that box is only selling for say 200 dollars that’s the point I’m trying to make

[@nicholasvogel9783]

@@Mktwiz99 you are looking at it from the point of an investor. not the point of a player that want to relive their youth by opening something they were never able to as they were poor at the time. also this person may never sell their cards so they really don't care about the second hand value.

[@opticnirvana]

The old boxes are like a fine wine .....less of them with time, greater demand less supply = higher $

[@rosspalmer3672]

I'm 41 years old, from the UK, and I've a confession to make: I've never tried a taco!

[@sonofyou9086]

You haven't lived then my friend go eat a taco dammit

[@markhoover3743]

Have you ever tried tea?

[@fsmoura]

don't worry, they're disgusting anyways

[@deadso]

Hey Rudy, what's the expected insurance return of these boxes if said boxes get stolen, burned or flooded?

[@ScarredThumb]

When you buy a seal product, on average how long are you expecting to hold the majority of it? 3 years-5 years?

[@benalish5404]

Hard to compare a time when hardly anyone was buying boxes to now; methinks

[@joshuanorris5860]

Hmmmm haha. Naw, dude, people stashed lots of boxes back in the day. Lots. How else would there be boat loads of fallen empires STILLLLLL....

[@VEXX1]

what if its already zero degrees where i live and i cant see the grass and my trees have no leafs :(

[@joshuanorris5860]

He didnt mention leaves. You can still hug a tree. You dont need leaves.

[@fsmoura]

then brace yourself for winter is coming

[@pokemon19922]

Rudy! I make 50 dollars a week down at my local Taco Bell. I just sit out front with a sign saying “trying to invest in throne of pound town eldraine special sauce edition “ and people throw cash at me all day. Well long story short I took out a 6 million dollar loan and used every penny on these collector boxes. You told me too and now I hear Wotc did a reprint of 500,069 throne of eldraine collector boxes! I’m upset I might have to sue the Timmy master

[@agrandesubstituicao]

Sealed boxes are always the best but you must understand it’s hard to store them. It certainly requires money upfront

[@Shannon_Vlogs]

20:33 aaahhh! He’s onto us!

[@cheevocabra]

As time goes on the number of unopened sealed boxes falls and the number of opened singles from the same set rises.

20:37 yeah I'm looking at the spread!! 🤩

[@OkOk-xx8it]

trust n the patience of this rudy

[@monkeyimp3541]

Cards can be reprinted but the sealed box will never be.

[@Slo-Mode]

I just want to know what people do with those expensive boxes. Are they mostly just bought to draft with or are people just collecting them?

[@ed-steminator6688]

Revised for $7k? Give me 100 of em!! This is a tough concept to wrap my Timmy brain around but priceless to help us shortsighted people.

[@Stretch213]

Keep it up please

[@Bromeostasis]

Pioneer Horizons

[@andrewo7318]

Rudy Horizons All cards are printed on floppy tacos

[@stephenmacdonald2075]

I like video this most because its not biased.

[@blinddog4288]

Rudy is a smart person.

[@taylorbates4742]

Basically what I'm gathering from Rudy is: Buy 5,000 booster boxes, wait 20 years, sell them and retire.

[@brettlewis2900]

I know this will prob get overlooked, but don't people crack older stuff to try and get high psa/bgs grades of cards that just don't show up on the market anymore? Is that potential value included in this chart or is the only ev taken into consideration raw card values? I feel like the grading of cards complicates this chart a little more.

[@EthanBonardel]

Rudy saved Moogic!

[@miscellaneousmerchandise4160]

The box itself becomes a commodity.

[@clg1082]

Love it Rudy. Starting from facts to pushing your crap.

[@Erebusdidnothingwrongish]

Thanks Rudy. I know it's serious when the Visor comes out.

[@zerokidd21]

But Rudy "opening is priceless"

[@jozefkeresturi2139]

@James Brincefield Why are they brain dead idiots?

[@oxnut9491]

@James Brincefield drafting lmao

[@tygonmaster]

When I said that to a hooker spreading her legs, she called the pimp. :(

[@ravenouspathogen]

An easier way to explain it is this --- When things are no longer made (discontinued), they increase in value. As time goes on, people open the item(s) and that makes the total amount of product smaller - meaning that there is less and less as time goes on.

[@Rubberneck1965]

What's weird is, I've had a dozen vintage/older boxes posted on Craigslist for months and get nothing but joker offers, even after pricing at below market price. I guess people don't understand the fun and nostalgia of opening/drafting a Fallen Empires, Homelands, etc.

[@WolleWip]

Rudynomics: When people make fun of you, you know you're onto something

[@christopherbownes494]

You're missing the fact of cards like the black lotus where certain cards can become more valuable than the pack itself. As well as the fact that boxes which have better expected value than the sealed product are products that get opened, which make the sealed products even rarer.

[@panthar1]

I am surprised people don't understand this. It's supply/demand and collectors desire for it. Take any collectible, it's always worth more in original packaging. That said, I am not convinced this trend will continue indefinitely. While I agree there will always be a premium on unopened packs, I don't agree the margin will keep increasing indefinitely, and it's totally possible that margin will shrink some. At some point it will reach equilibrium where the demand for the cards are equal to the unopened packs. There is already a very low incentive to open the old packs, and considering the supply of both are limited, this will not continue forever simply due to a supply that is limited for both.

[@95Geli]

I dont play magic or own a single card, but I enjoy these videos :)

[@ChipHunter3]

People love to draft old sets. Boosts the market over expected value. That makes sense. Its also the reason why made-for-collectors, non-draftable boxes like Throne Collectors boxes scare me.

[@Habeev07]

No, Rudy, Its 3:00 Am right now for me and I've been pricing boxes for hours. I just bought a booster box each of Battle for Zendikar, Aether Revolt, Kaladesh, and Khans of Tarkir each. What else should I buy? I'm not even a Timmy. I'm a noob Timmy.

[@diggerdog9205]

What was getting caught on the cords pantsless Ruby??

[@IronGiant2790]

Wait, so why exactly does time replace individual card EV? Is it seriously as simple as collectors' demand / decreased supply? Is the nostalgia factor that strong?

[@polishprince47]

Rudy, Lumbergh and the Bob's want to know where they can get a Pink Visor like yours??

[@fsmoura]

yes, but they're smaller, to represent hyerarchy

[@TooSplicedUp13]

The sealed box itself is its own commodity. Yes, cards in the box can affect the price, but mostly it's its own thing.

17:27 "and hopefully this video being online for eternity" 🤣🤣🤣

[@veritas2782]

It's Timmy Time!