Travers Day Preview 2024 Saratoga

#saratoga
Preview of the 2024 Travers Stakes from Saratoga Race Course. Fierceness, Sierra Leone, and Thorpedo Anna are entered in this grade one race.
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[@derbyologist]

Who do you like in the Travers Stakes 2024? Free Tip Sheet for Travers, Saratoga, Breeder's Cup, Saratoga Derby Day 📒 Sign Up. derbyologist-1689.ck.page/2020ebfe81

[@austinthomas9068]

8 to win and 8 / 1,2,7 trifecta key 🔑. Fierceness is the best 3yr old right now.

[@omarguerra2646]

Excellent analysis Craig. Considering the pace of the race, my exacta is Sierra Leone Dornoch

[@derbyologist]

Yes lots to think about in this race this year - enjoy the card Saturday.

[@willmorrisusa]

Wouldn't it be something if we got a neck & neck stretch duel between Fierceness & Dornoch & Sierra Leone closing fast !

[@derbyologist]

The Alabama was a good race, a two horse duel down the stretch would be good.

[@willmorrisusa]

@@derbyologist yeah , & I'm guessing that Fierceness on the outside Post is better for him & not a lot of other horses , so he'll have plenty of running room. He just gotta get the distance now !

[@nicotuanoiii4930]

I agree with you! I like Sierra Leone too! If he Runs Straight he has BIG chance to Win!

[@derbyologist]

Well I'm not sure he will run straight, but hopefully he can win.

[@Jetsfan365-h3f]

I'm with you on Sierra Leone I don't think he's the best horse in the race but I do think he's best at the distance I just hope he's not cooked

[@peterbrown7884]

fierceness wins race and horse of year

[@derbyologist]

Yes, I believe he is three year old of the year if he wins this, not sure about Horse of the year, would need to win PA Derby or Breeder's Cup Classic for that.

[@sammydylan9775]

Dornoch just holding off Unmatched Wisdom

[@derbyologist]

Dornoch the Division leader going into the Travers.

[@Rick-vc5cw]

Play the next Superfecta box with the two the three the seven and the eight

[@derbyologist]

Enjoy the Travers Day Card.

[@nolinrogers]

why do u think chad entered that other horse with early speed? did fierceness run a good race last out? does the haskell winner do well in the travers? & last when the last time a filly won the travers? now u have the winner.

[@bubsh.2033]

I'm going to give Honor Marie a shot. Thanks for your analysis. Hope it is a good race.

[@derbyologist]

Yes Honor Marie has a shot. Good works. Enjoy the travers.

[@scottcarr2871]

Honor Marie is the most Fresh horse and i think thats important in regards to this 10 furlong race

[@derbyologist]

Yes he is fresh and the Belmont track favored speed.

[@blkmoney1066]

I don't like Thorpedo Anna's post for the traverse do you think it will be a problem for her to get her position especially if she doesn't get a good start what say you?

[@derbyologist]

I think the post is OK, I think they will save ground and let Dornoch go to the lead, If Unmatched Wisdom goes with Dornoch that helps Thorpedo Anna.

[@Rick-vc5cw]

@@blkmoney1066 I think it certainly will be a problem but not the biggest problem by far the biggest problem is this horse is not fast enough speed figures are nowhere near The Big Three and if that isn't enough the horse has to also run an extra furlong this horse will not hit the board

[@user-ns8dq6ui5s]

Thank you sir

[@derbyologist]

Enjoy the Travers Day Card

[@user-ns8dq6ui5s]

I'm hoping you'll handicap some of the other grave One races as I'd like to check out the pick 3. What kind of in the back of the mine been thinking Sierra Leone looks like he's getting stronger

[@gretafields4706]

I am rooting for Thorpedo Anna.

[@derbyologist]

Hoping for a fast track and good race.

[@Rick-vc5cw]

Torpedo and is a great Philly but when you look at that torpedo Anna and you compare it to Super Filly Rachel Alexander those numbers are nowhere close those speed figures the source is going to have to run an extra for a long these three super heavyweights this horse is not hitting the board

[@gretafields4706]

I think she has a chance. Her trainer suggested several times that she hasnt been fully tested yet. (This is her test). I am not good at comparing horses by speed fractions. McPeek said, in low key, that her speed compares pretty well with the colts. I am still learning to use Thoro-graph. Y'all can block me if I sound too dumb, but I'll just go wide then😤

[@Rick-vc5cw]

@@gretafields4706 that's a b******* lie because there's speed figures are significantly lower than the big three other cults in this race and when you look at the speed figures of let's say Rachel Alexander when she ran against the boys she was sporting speed figures that were consistent with the top Cults at that time she has no chance to win against these big three powerhouses he's also got to run 10 for longs which she has not done in my opinion she will not even hit the bord

[@imisstrance]

It’s between Dornoch and Unmatched Wisdom.

[@charlesbadrock]

Good pick to win he'll need to run straight but the projected fast pace scenario sets up his strength as a powerful closer

[@derbyologist]

He needs the fast pace, I'm still skeptical a little of him at ten furlongs, but, he has a shot.

[@charlesbadrock]

@@derbyologist Agree in the Belmont Stakes which was run at Saratoga it was a speed bias track for those 4 days back in June so he was racing against the bias and ran 3rd he'll be heavily bet again in this Travers so I really don't see any value on him right now I don't plan to bet the race but of course that could change by Saturday

[@charleslockhart6778]

Dornoch is the best horse in the 3 year old division this year and I think he proves it again here. I see the filly as the main threat early but feel confident Dornoch will show his dominance on the turn for home and put her away. I expect the main competition to come from Sierra Leone with a stirring stretch run similar to the Remsen in which Dornoch fights on to prevail in a thriller.

[@derbyologist]

Dornoch is the leader, and we could have a Remsen type rematch this weekend. Enjoy the Travers.

[@gregorycampbell3828]

I like Sierra Leone as well, only if he races on the inside. I would hate to put money on him and he does that shift-in thing he does and gets disqualified. I will use Irads horse in all positions for trifectas and superfectas as well. Go Get Em!!!

[@derbyologist]

Enjoy the Travers card on Saturday.

[@lewesleyacklin1408]

Yea go get em boy🐎🔥🔥

[@sigimendoza1983]

I like Batten Down progression. He still has room for improvement and 10 furlongs suits him. Using Thorpedo Anna and Sierra Leone underneath

[@derbyologist]

His Jim Dandy was a good race, Fierceness got the jump on him, but at ten furlongs, Batten Down is more of a grinder and may like the distance.

[@lewesleyacklin1408]

Yeaahh lets get it Mid summer derby im boxing em 🐎🐎

[@derbyologist]

Let's Go, Saratoga!

[@gretafields4706]

I like the fast speed fractions that Batten Down shows in the replay you posted. I don't think closers will catch Thorpedo Anna because I don't think she will slow down for them to pass. I think Dornoch or Batten Down may start a pace race with her. I reserve the right to change my mind🤔

[@derbyologist]

Thats why we have a week to figure it out.

[@gretafields4706]

Right! I have a lot of replays to watch!

[@Rick-vc5cw]

Torpedo Anna has been a very very nice filly however I've compared her speeds to Rachel Alexander to try to determine whether she's really a superficial or not torpedo Anna's speed figures are nowhere near Rachel Alexander's she's a 96 or 97 there is no way that she's going to be able to compete with these three Heavy Hitters plus she's going an extra Furlong I don't think she's ever ran 10 furlongs there is no way that that horse is hitting the board

[@Rick-vc5cw]

I can't understand why we would go with batten down batten down couldn't even finish on the board in the high school and now the horses going to be running with better horses not happening

[@gretafields4706]

I was just looking at his time fractions in the race that the Derbyologist jusgt replayed. He looked fast enough there -- I thought. I remember a good race he had. But maybe I better go look at history again?? This is why they tell you to "take notes". You forget! I am being lazy, not taking notes!!!!!

[@user-wm7mp2fl1p]

The Thorpedo has the best draw hence the race is ready made for her as the shortest distance between two points is a straight line hence the Thorpedo has the ability to get to the lead and save ground on the rail up front Of Course Dornoch and Fierceness will be with her but she just has to keep her straight line advantage to her advantage end of story

[@derbyologist]

Could be the way it plays out. Enjoy the race.

[@scottcarr2871]

Sierra Leonne doesnt like to load in the gate. The only reason he won the Blue Grass was because he took foreever to load. The rest of the field waited too long with weight. That race is no good tbe field was stressed before the gate opened ! He is also bit compromised and likes to lean. Horse has serious issues but because he's Chad Browns horse no one wants to acknowkedge his serious issues

[@willmorrisusa]

Even though Fierceness ran not long ago- Winning the Jim Dandy.... He had 84 days rest in between Kentucky Derby & the Jim Dandy ! Should have plenty in the Tank !

[@derbyologist]

Yes he had a lot of rest before Florida Derby and Won and before Jim Dandy and won, now he has less rest and has to run further.

[@gregorycampbell3828]

I would really like to agree with you on that, but his win/lose pattern still seems a bit of a concern. I also think it should be his race to lose, but I have to use him in all positions for the trifectas and superfectas, just in case. GO GET EM.

[@ValePlace]

Doesn't work that way.

[@willmorrisusa]

@@ValePlace Not yet ? 😶

[@user-wm7mp2fl1p]

History is in for the making as Thorpedo Anna a filly will make the colts look silly at the end of the race end of story

[@paulcharpentier7095]

Well what a great field of course but I'm going with door knock beneficiary Lyon wins it wouldn't break my heart

[@derbyologist]

Dornoch should be tough and the price should be right 5/2 or 3/1 most likely.

[@ragnarelliswyatt4130]

Fierceness does what he does and bounces. Dornoch gets overtaken by Sierra Leone at the wire

[@derbyologist]

Fierceness might bounce, Dornoch should be tough and I expect a 3 horse battle at the 1/8 pole.

[@stephenpatulak1120]

78 bx just gonna get to far ahead the both of them

[@willhendrickson972]

I don’t understand people sticking with Sierra Leone. Could he win? Absolutely, but he’s had perfect opportunities and never delivers. I’m trying to beat him from the exacta too.

[@derbyologist]

nothing wrong with that strategy, on two can finish in the exacta, so you have to try and take a stand against someone in this spot.

[@MikeSmith-bq5iw]

Thorpeda Anna is the best filly since Rachel. That's more than good enough to beat this average bunch of colts! 1/2 cold exacta.

[@derbyologist]

Boom

[@Rick-vc5cw]

Torpedo Anna torpedo Anna is a wonderful filly does not however have the speed figures because when you look at Rachel Alexander speed figures and you compare it to Rachel to torpedo Anna it's not even close and she's going to have to actually go an extra Furlong there is no way that she is going to be able to beat all these three heavy weights I do not think she will even hit the board

[@KellyCostello-qs9nf]

U really think Dornoch, Sierra Leone and Fierceness are average? I would know!

[@KellyCostello-qs9nf]

U****

[@MikeSmith-bq5iw]

Ann's has only had to run as she has had to. Hernandez has never set her down. You think when he does Saturday she is not going to respond?

[@scorpionl6335]

Sierra Leone and Dornoch with Thorpedo Anna, Hone Marie and Batten down. Fierceness to be fish for him to swallow. Good luck for every body. Very

[@derbyologist]

Let’s hope for a fast track

[@anthonyrazza1344]

Dornoch wins the Travers, Sierra Leone once again finishes 2nd.

[@derbyologist]

Dornoch is a long distance grinder, so he should be up close early, he runs better on the lead, and I assume they will go to the lead.

[@willmorrisusa]

Rooting for Fierceness to break his every other race pattern ! 😂 👊

[@derbyologist]

Should be fun to watch.

[@willmorrisusa]

@@derbyologist exactly Derby O ' ! Travers is special to me , cause when I was a boy & through my teens- I always thought it was the Jockey who mostly controlled the outcome of a horse race ! When I watched Forty Niner hanging on & Fighting down the stretch to beat his half brother Seeking the Gold by a nose.... I knew then that it's mostly the horse & his / her desire to beat the other horses ! The proverbial " Light Bulb " went off in my head ! 😊

[@gretafields4706]

I agree, based on seeing horses race in pastures and riding some. There are horses that really fight to get ahead. There are horses (Zenyatta) who love going fast (like their jockey), and dominant horses that really hate a butt in front of them: They will nip at anybody in front and demand the front spot. I rode a horse on a trail who did that. He wanted to get in front to gallop to enjoy it. I wasnt a good rider and never could stop this. He ran thru fences twice to get to mares. The vet thought he was a stag. But there are plenty geldings who are aggressive too.

[@willmorrisusa]

@@gretafields4706 U just gave me a flashback to the 2010 Vanity Handicap when Zenyatta came from last place & way outside, to run down St. Trinians for the W !

[@gretafields4706]

I saw all her races. I thought she ran for joy. I never saw a horse paw like that. Maybe she was just saying, I'm ready to go!

[@kadabagiriyannanagaraj5319]

Thorpedo Anna, will win easily,,

[@derbyologist]

Some big races and this year and still seems fresh.