Hearthstone: F2P of the Old Gods #2 - Pirate Temptation

[@askmiller]

For those curious, the reason it's not 50/50 for the stormwind basically comes down the the fact that the damage it can do is limited to whole numbers. In order for the stormwind to survive, you need at least 7 shots to hit your face out of the 12. The chances of that happening is [(12 choose 7) + (12 choose 8) + (12 choose 9) + (12 choose 10) + (12 choose 11) + (12 choose 12)] / 2^12 which is equal to about 38.7%. Which means it dies 61.3% of the time. It would be exactly 50% if dealing 6 damage killed it 50% of the time. Because dealing 6 damage kills it 100% of the time, you're leaning quite a bit towards killing it.

[@CustomMap]

Great explanation!

[@kkokay4]

Nope, it either dies or it doesn't, therefore 50/50 Kappa

[@askmiller]

+Morgan Murphy you either win the lottery or lose, therefore 50/50?

[@askmiller]

+askmiller kappa

[@bobson_dugnutt]

Yeah, so if it was 13 shots on a 7 health minion you'd get 50/50 chance of killing it. On average the minion would be hit 6.5 times, which is kind of like killing it half the time.

[@alexmitchell3210]

4:30 *Challenge accepted. I'm gonna try solving this statistics problem and I'm showing my work.* The C'thun has 2 targets and 12 attack. There are (2^12) outcomes. Of those outcomes (12!/6!/6!) or C(12,6) will have precisely 6 damage hit the stormwind champion. That number comes out to (924/4096). *BUT THAT'S WRONG.* This is only one possible way the champion could die. It could be killed from the 6th attack onward, not just the 12th. The above is just the chance that the 12th and final attack is the one that kills the champion. The chances are, for each potentially fatal attack launched: attack 6: 1/64 (2^6) outcomes, only one results in a dead champion attack 7: 7/128 (2^7) outcomes, (7!/6!) result in a dead champion attack 8: 28/256 (2^8) outcomes, (8!/6!/2) result in a dead champion attack 9: 84/512 (2^9) outcomes, (9!/6!/3!) result in a dead champion attack 10: 210/1024 (2^10) outcomes, (10!/6!/4!) result in a dead champion attack 11: 462/2048 (2^11) outcomes, (11!/6!/5!) result in a dead champion attack 12: 924/4096 (2^12) outcomes, (12!/6!/6!) result in a dead champion Convert them to percentages. Making sure to subtract the previous successes from the remaining pool: 1/64 = 1.563% TOTAL SUM: 1.563% 7/128 = 5.469% TOTAL SUM: 1.563% + 5.469% of 100-1.563 = 6.947% 28/256 = 10.94% TOTAL SUM: 6.947% + 10.94% of 100-6.947 = 17.127% 84/512 = 16.41% TOTAL SUM: 17.127% + 16.41% of 100-17.127 = 30.726% 210/1024 = 20.51% TOTAL SUM: 30.726% + 20.51% of 100-30.726 = 44.934% 462/2048 = 22.56% TOTAL SUM: 44.934% + 22.56% of 100-44.934 = 57.357% 923/4096 = 22.53% TOTAL SUM: 57.357% + 22.53% of 100-57.357 = *66.964%* *I estimate a 66.964% chance that a 12 attack C'thun kills a 6 health minion on an otherwise empty board*

[@TheJinsup]

it's actually just a binomial type this into wolfram or something (sum((12 choose n)0.5^(12-n)*0.5^(n) from 0 to 6 this is the probability it hits face 0 to 6 times summed

[@bobson_dugnutt]

I can't spot your error, but I'm pretty sure the correct answer is 61.28%. I ran a numerical simulation with 10 million trials. Here's the code (python): from random import randint ITERS = 10000000 results = [] for _ in range(ITERS): minion = 0 face = 0 for _ in range(12): if minion >= 6: face += 1 else: hit = randint(0,1) if hit: minion += 1 else: face += 1 results.append(minion) died = sum(1 for r in results if r >= 6) pct = (died / float(ITERS)) * 100 print('Minion died in %0.3f%% of runs' % pct)

[@defrte]

Argh my head this is why im in accounting yall crazy with these calculations

[@drinkmehearties]

Problem can be solved by using the cumulative distribution function. Wolfram: Sum[Binomial[12,i]*0.5^i*0.5^(12-i),{i,0,6}]

[@Dartshart]

All of you are wrong, because you forgot to include the derivative of Avogadro's number, which when substituted into a Pythagorean sequence and multiplied by the speed of light equals exactly...32.33. Repeating of course

[@MrGeorgeFlorcus]

C'Thun has some pretty epic quotes. "My dream ends. Your nightmare begins." "Flee. Screaming."

[@rainofsolace]

mistake in description: 17:52 Pack Opening* but the video was amazing, just helping out ;). love the f2p series, can't imagine how much work it would be!

[@trojancell]

There are explanations in the comments if you want to see details on how to do the statistics problem but the calculation can be found by doing 0.5^12 + 12(0.5^12)+ 66(0.5^12) + 220(0.5^12) + 495(0.5^12) + 792(0.5^12) + 924(0.5^12) =0.6123(rounded). This means it is 61.23%. I did simplify it as this is for people who want to do the calculation themselves so it's easier to do 0.5^12 instead of 0.5^r)(0.5^n-r) every time. If any of you have questions just comment and I'll answer.

[@GuidoFawkesAnonymous]

Thanks for these videos. As a new comer to hearthstone it is nice to see that you can do alright with F2P decks. It is also nice to watch someone who knows what they are doing since I know nothing about this game.

[@Zero_Shift]

Okay we're suddenly on an asian server and the comments are full of math counting how high the chance to kill a 6/6 with 12 bolts is

[@Lesquidliestone]

Coincidence? I think not!

[@hisokamorow3611]

+Chris Lewis whats midrange?

[@Lesquidliestone]

Big Brody Midrange is pretty much what it says, in the middle. In the context of Hearthstone, midrange means a mix of early game minions, mid-game minions, and a few late game minions for good measure.

[@Edlin261]

Your Free to Play is one of my favorite HS Streamer things. Also love the Deck Teachings.

[@greatwhitnorth]

My favourite of your series. Awesome stuff!

[@happyzackful]

Trump you are an inspiration. You make the game seem exciting and fun. Great job!

[@thejunkface9187]

This is so awesome. Can't wait for part three.

[@CroniusXP]

TYPO IN DESCRIPTION "17:52 - Pacl Opening"

[@FeZaCx]

I like the F2P journey !! Keep up

[@micy9308]

im happy this guy just opens the packs like a normal person and not do that bs i doing circles with the pack for good luck, saying a magic word or taking ages to hover over each one.

[@RealClassixX]

Bringing two decks to legend would be the dankest, spiciest Free2Play in the history of history.

[@barutjeh]

Odds of the 6 health minion dying in 12 hits are about 61%. You can consider it a basic binomial distribution, since, while it can't actually recieve hits after the 6th, that doesn't matter for the "does it die or not?" calculation.

[@Karavusk]

So lets assume the hero and the minion both have 20hp (they cant die) and you play cthun. Now you have 12 "shots" with a 50% chance to hit the hero or the minion. How big is the chance that the minion gets hit atleast 6 times. As far as I understand it, it isnt 50 50 because a tie (both get hit 6 times) counts as a good outcome. That means we have 1 situation more that is good. Just like jousting in Hearthstone for example. The chance that you lose is a lot higher because a draw means you lose

[@Roiben100]

so are you saying its a 50/50 when it would hit face 9 times and minion 3 times?

[@95BWG]

I just calculated the probability that a maximum of 6 missiles hit the face (the same thing really). Then you can just use the cumulative binomial sum to calculate the probability that X

[@CrabSpu]

WAS DYING AT BASE C'THUN THEN I ACTUALLY DIED WHEN THE MAGE PLAYED HIS OWN BASE C'THUN

[@katakaGTX]

Love your FTP series trump

[@Sasa19780]

For the guys that have problems with intuitive understanding of C'thun-stormwind problem. It would actually be 50% if C'thun had 11 attack. Lets put it this way, if there was 1 health minion on the board and C'thun had 2 attack it is obvious that there is more than 50% chance of killing the minion (it would be 50% if C'thun had only 1 attack). So in conclusion, if you want to have 50% chance to kill the N health minion on otherwise empty board you must have 2N-1 attack C'thun.

[@Dudebug2000]

Yo, Jens. Gotta question for ya. First off, thanks for all your work. And second, have you considered making a little thing under his deck tracker, that tracks cthun's stats? Kinda like you did with nzoth? Just wondering. Thanks again!

[@ZergrushEddie]

A free to play run with freaking Warrior... We have come a long, long way since the only Warrior deck was Wallet Warrior.

[@kerithkordas7041]

"Pirate temptation" sounds like a nauticly themed adult novel to me

[@lolosh99]

I would read it

[@Wherrimy]

I hope he goes with Pirate Warrior, Druid is too boring.

[@tossover6490]

It's not like pirate warrior is any more fun.Although "play on curve" decks like Druid are boring,I'd rather watch that than a face deck

[@kawaiarinokripperino9719]

+Tossover6 id rather watch face decks then cthun decks, because they actually take skill unlike cthun decks where you play shit on curve

[@meltdown4126]

The only thing involving skill in this game may be trading and face decks avoid that whatever it takes.

[@As_Her]

+Atlas Face decks taking skill? Are you listening to yourself buddy? Lol

[@MrGoragor]

+Meltdown Glitch I disagree. It's more about knowing the opponent's deck. Knowing what cards he can play and make decisions based on that. Even a ten years old can count and trade properly. (Attention: Bad English)

[@Cypherpala]

I am pretty sure I have come across you in Ranked or Casual. Can't remember what you played but I do remember it was a good Match!

[@griffinj1204]

I look forward to these F2P's every expansion.

[@MlemDotaPersonal]

For people wondering about the C'Thun killing Stormwind Champion not being 50%: There are 12 possibilities for the 12 pings; 0 hit face, 1 hit face... up to 12 hit face. If 7-12 hit face (6 possibilities), the Stormwind Champion lives. If 0-6 hit the face (7 possibilities), it dies. Therefore it is 7/13 chance that the Champion dies.

[@MHSlypher1]

I understand the principle, however its not possible for the 0 hit face up to 5 hit face scenario surely as once 6 don't hit face there is no other target but face for the remaining 6,

[@karbonkeldiedonk]

not really right? There's way more combinations to hit it 6 times than to hit it 0 times for instance

[@Kefka2010]

Ok, thanks. Best explanation.

[@MlemDotaPersonal]

If there's no other target for the remaining 6 they don't matter really, if you're looking solely at whether the minion is dead or not. It isn't the most clean way of explaining but the maths works out, if you apply it to Arcane Missiles you see why it's a 50/50 to kill a 3/2 minion with it also. If 0 or 1 hit face the 3/2 dies, if 2 or 3 hit face the 3/2 lives.

[@MHSlypher1]

The logic is sound, just the way of explaining it with a 0 hit possibility is not

[@odedkhazon8542]

It says "Pacl" instead of Pack in the description at 17:52 pack opening, just letting you know :D

[@stanime3065]

5minutes in, so what are the odds of cthun getting that kill? i don't know how you'd calculate that

[@andrei281193]

If I have all the adventures and I'm also free to play, what would you guys recommend for starter decks/with some replacements for Druid and Hunter?

[@PurpleMountainsMan]

Pirate warrior would be an awesome watch :)

[@WyldeTripKY]

I hope he ends up going Warrior because it's more fun to watch than C'Thun Druid. Opinion: Me

[@husamfahmi7499]

(Warning: It is a loong read!) I think quite a few people got it right, but I'll throw in my 2 cents in case it helps anyone. Important point: Assuming the minion has 12+ health, then the mean value IS a half-half split of damage, it is the "Expected Value" and it represents the mean outcome of a random variable, Still: "Expected Value = 6" DOES NOT MEAN "Prob(6-6 split) = 50%" (Correct) (Wrong) Check out this simpler example (Minion does not die here): 4/4 minion 4-missile barrage (M1: Missile1 M2: Missile2 M3: Missile3 M4: Missile4 F = Face Min = Minion) Total Outcomes (16): M1 --> F M2 --> F M3 --> F M4 --> F (4-0 split) M1 --> F M2 --> F M3 --> F M4 --> Min (3-1 split) M1 --> F M2 --> F M3 --> Min M4 --> F (3-1 split) M1 --> F M2 --> F M3 --> Min M4 --> Min (2-2 split) M1 --> F M2 --> Min M3 --> F M4 --> F (3-1 split) M1 --> F M2 --> Min M3 --> F M4 --> Min (2-2 split) M1 --> F M2 --> Min M3 --> Min M4 --> F (2-2 split) M1 --> F M2 --> Min M3 --> Min M4 --> Min (1-3 split) M1 --> Min M2 --> F M3 --> F M4 --> F (3-1 split) M1 --> Min M2 --> F M3 --> F M4 --> Min (2-2 split) M1 --> Min M2 --> F M3 --> Min M4 --> F (2-2 split) M1 --> Min M2 --> F M3 --> Min M4 --> Min (1-3 split) M1 --> Min M2 --> Min M3 --> F M4 --> F (2-2 split) M1 --> Min M2 --> Min M3 --> F M4 --> Min (1-3 split) M1 --> Min M2 --> Min M3 --> Min M4 --> F (1-3 split) M1 --> Min M2 --> Min M3 --> Min M4 --> Min (0-4 split) The "2-2 split" is 6/16 (37.5%). However, look at the whole picture: 0 hits on minion = 6.25% 1 hits on minion = 25% 2 hits on minion = 37.5% 3 hits on minion = 25% 4 hits on minion = 6.25% You can see how the 3-1 split is just as probable as the 1-3 split (same for 4-0 & 0-4) --> Expected Value = 2 hits on minion. So yes, playing this card will get you on average 2 hits on the minion. BUT the main take away is that there is a difference between "Wanting a mean outcome of 2 hits" & "Wanting EXACTLY a 2-2 split" As for the case of minion dying mid-cast. Check this example: 4/2 minion 4-missile barrage Q: "What is the probability of minion dying?" A: "The probability of being hit by 2 or more missiles" 0 hits on minion = 6.25% 1 hits on minion = 25% 2 hits on minion = 37.5% (Dead) 3 hits on minion = 25% (Dead, 1 missile overkill goes face) 4 hits on minion = 6.25% (Dead, 2 missile overkill go face) 6.25% + 25% + 37.5% = 68.75% As for the "Expected Value of hitting the minion", it is clearly no longer "2", since there is no longer a chance of 3 or 4 hits on a minion. You can go to my breakdown above and manually edit every 3rd/4th missile aimed at a dead minion to "F", then calculate the "Expected Value".....But Trump did not ask about the "Expected Value of minion hits" :D To tie everything together: Those percentages that I acquired via tedious manual breakdown? They can be simply calculated via the formula of Binomial Distribution. Hopefully that made sense :)

[@WickedDealer]

I started a new F2P account at the end of last month, from the extra 10 Old Gods packs I got a Golden Twin Emperor Vek'lor, needless to say every deck in that account is currently C'Thun based.

[@fluffybunny6454]

Lol, the Pacl opening in the description. Rip Jens's career

[@SquidwardAF]

27:56 not coining healbot is a missplay imo

[@alexluna6238]

Nah

[@BruceWayne-qh2ji]

Not really Senjin wasn't a immediate threat and you always want to save the coin until its necessary

[@RobinHood3000]

I'd disagree with that idea about the Coin -- sometimes it's better to use it early to gain an early tempo advantage and take the initiative away from your opponent. Otherwise, if your opponent curves out well (especially if they're playing a tempo-oriented deck), you're playing from behind the whole game and die with the Coin in hand. That's my opinion, at least.

[@matteopuccio5802]

I think that the Coin should be used for curving out when you are more controllish, or tempo when you are more aggressive

[@lequinow]

It play's horribly against fireball, and then you end up with a shit turn 5 that still can't deal with the sen'jin AND you don't have the coin anymore.

[@QxDShaDowZz]

It's 100% because trump always prays to the RNG gods when he wakes up, smart man ;)

[@blyjd91]

Never thought there would come a time where someone tries going F2P with Warrior. Boy, have the meta changed.

[@simonnick8422]

The many faced god and his servants having no name? Just a quip about C'thun or a specific pen and paper universe?

[@all_time_Jelly_Fish]

4096 possible outcomes, 2510 ways 6 damage can be dealt to the minion. 2510/4096 is 61.2 %. If the C'thun had 11 attack it would have been 50:50.

[@liak8786]

Something that just occurred to me: If you play a 2/3 followed by Shattered Sun Cleric, you end up with a 3/4 and a 3/2. Which can be achieved by playing a 3/2 followed by a 3/4, too. So actually, you don't win anything if the Cleric finds a target. Am I missing anything?

[@Tryaxor]

Well, it's like playing a 2/3 on turn 2, then playing a 3/4 with charge and a replacing your 2/3 by a 3/2. It also allows better trades if a 3/4 hits your opponent's 2 drop and still lives.

[@liak8786]

Ah, that's true. The partly charge. Thanks for pointing it out!

[@mariobrowser123]

Cleric is very situational, for example If you are missing 1 damage, you can buff the card with the cleric to kill it but a normal 3/2 does pretty much nothing to the situation

[@mariobrowser123]

29:00 uses the cleric to help kill a minion

[@trysephiroth007]

Also being able to buff minions like Acolyte of Pain or for this deck Twilight Elder gives value in addition to the 1/1 stats on a minion that can attack.

[@kkme7]

I think Warrior is the best class to start off with, even though he has better Druid cards at the moment. Disneyland Warrior is great and so cheap, it can carry him a long way until he gets a better collection to switch to another deck.

[@MAPLESTORlES]

For anyone wondering, the chance that he kills the Stormwind Champion IS 50%. I don't know where Trump is getting his calculation, and I would love to hear his thought process, but there are 2 targets, with 12 opportunities to hit. Based purely on math (assuming there is no hidden game mechanic that favors minions over face), then it's an average of 6 hits on the champion, and 6 hits on face.

[@MAPLESTORlES]

EDIT: The chance he kills the Stormwind Champion is 50% because it has 6 health. if it was a minion that had a different health value, the chance of a KILL would be different. However, the chance to hit the minion 6 times, and the face 6 times remains 50/50. This is, of course only if the minion has over 6 health. If it had less than 6, again the chance changes because you cannot hit a minion 6 times if it doesn't have 6 health.

[@TheMrBigBadBrad]

You're wrong. If it does come down to 6 damage on each (I.E a 50/50 split) then the outcome is the death of the card. The only outcomes it won't die are 5 to card 7 to face and above (to the face) which is somewhat less than 50%

[@prozacdick]

+Anthony Man but the cthun tendrils(magic?) calculate each shot with 50/50. Basically every time it fires it makes another calculation. I believe that would mean it's not a 50/50 chance of killing the 6/6.

[@MAPLESTORlES]

Yeah, you're right. The potential outcomes hitting face/minions are 12/0, 11/1, 10/2, 9/3, 8/4, 7/5, 6/6, 5/7, 4/8, 3/9, 2/10, 1/11, and 0/12. So there are 13 outcomes total, 7 of which hypothetically result in death of the champion. So it's 7/13 chance to kill, which is about 54%. My bad.

[@TheMrBigBadBrad]

Anthony Man It's actually an even larger chance than that. There are more combinations that result in the other combinations. But take the 12/0 outcome there is only one combination of outcomes that result in that.

[@ThePiptheman]

That Claw play was basically a Dennis play right?

[@TheUnb3atable]

I had extreme deja-vu while watching him trying to get the silithus swarmer to work, am I the only one? Does he do that in another videoaswell, or did the matrix glitch for me?

[@TheOffspriiing]

Im pretty sure that the 12/12 c'thun had a 50/50 chance to kill the stormwind?

[@TheMrBigBadBrad]

f it does come down to 6 damage on each (I.E a 50/50 split) then the outcome is the death of the card. The only outcomes it won't die are 5 to card 7 to face and above (to the face) which is somewhat less than 50%

[@darkbull5386]

moved to Texas? what do u think about kd leaving the thunder

[@JazzakRavenshade]

The probability was 0.61279296875. Twelve trials, .5 chance of success per trial. At least six trials required success. The probability of getting at least six hits (where all extra hits go to face) is that.

[@joaozinho577]

nice project !!! ill follow it !

[@gabriel211297]

add only one blood of the ancient one to your deck and make the enemy wait for the second one to use removal

[@Mathmachine]

Finally about to hit Rank 20. And so the real challenge begins.

[@pms453ft]

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLL biggest hearthstone noob

[@drugdealerinokrippirino330]

whats your rank then buddy?

[@pms453ft]

1

[@pms453ft]

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL bet I can beat you scrub fuck

[@pms453ft]

fite me irl

[@dbztitan]

16:45 Huge misplay. Quick Shot the Arakkoa, run 4 hounds into it, last hound, weapon, and hero ability face to set Trump to 2. Trump can only do 14 damage now. Leper gnome and hero ability next turn is a win. Then again, it's Rank 23, so...

[@aidanherbert6614]

I started doing this and i have an almost complete pirate warrior deck missing grom and leeroy

[@Breakfast221]

Lol, I also recently moved from California to Texas. Trump must have gotten sick of everything being expensive in CA too.

[@bobjohnson5280]

I'm doing the exact same thing, a Fresh WotoG F2P account, and I get a Golden Blood of the Ancient. I was like kewl, 400 dust. I disenchanted it, and then the very next pack, I get another one. ;-;

[@LtHavoc]

You moved to Texas? From the Bay Area? D:

[@devinvanbers4736]

nice C'Beast druid deck trump......

[@cfdj43]

the player names not being displayed is a bug with hearthstone, not your computer because the Unicode consortium means all computer characters are recognised by all other computers

[@aceblade]

I've never seen a Hearthstone video generate so many math related comments.

[@Thoughtfulspy]

Are you going to play your free arena draft?

[@KuroroSama42]

The C'Thun thing would have been a 50-50 if it was 11 shots... basically, 5 of 10 shots are expected to go to either and the last shot is a 50-50. The 12th shot increases the odds over 50-50, but it's not as simple as putting at 75%, of course.

[@baronlz]

ok I see people are confused by maths (it's not 7/13 as I ve seen below) let's do it. So we'll pretend the stormwind champion never die, we have a random event of 1/2 happening 12 time in a row. There is 2^12 possible outcome, and 924 (it's 6 in 12=12!/(6!(12-6)!)) of them are exactly 6 hit. There is exactly 1-924/(2^12)=0.7744140625 that 6 hit 6 miss doesn't happen (and 0.2255859375 that it does happen) Since it's binomial there is a symmetry there centered on 6, so the probability that it hit the face strictly less than 6 time is 0.7744140625/2=0.38720703125 It kills the champion if it hit the face 6 times or less. The probability is probability that it hit exactly 6 times + the probability it hit the champion more than 6 times (hypothetically, in fact it doesn't but it will hit 6 times) therefore the probability it kills the champion is 0.2255859375+0.38720703125=0.61279296875

[@eugenijussyrickis8163]

Does anyone know what decktracker Trump's using?

[@nonma2312]

oooooops I forted

[@TheMrBigBadBrad]

cuz all da combos that are 50/50 split result in the death of the card. np u can fank me l8er 4 my font of noladge

[@fed3903]

12 shots, each has 50% chance to hit, 50/12= 600=60 % chance to kill the SK.

[@nonma2312]

thts incredible tbh

[@TheMrBigBadBrad]

Anon Maxima R u (amaz)ed?

[@samuelliu9941]

It depends on who is playing, if Kripp is playing then the probability is approximately 0%, but for the rest of us it's around 61%.

[@archniki_]

you have beast at razorfin hunter!

[@Bennyboy23]

How have I been playing F2P since beta and I have only got to legend once, meanwhile Trump has got to legend with more than one F2P account?

[@Bennyboy23]

Well I do mostly play arena so....

[@kawaiarinokripperino9719]

You dont play enough

[@kawaiarinokripperino9719]

+Max Schipani so does trump

[@TheGrumpySage]

can anyone tell me how to get different card backs ? (apart from the season ending gift)

[@ВарданКазарян-э4ь]

Heroic adventures, first time Legend, Overwatch, HotS

[@qwerty32600]

Anyone know when LoE will be wild n if its worth to unlock it right now?

[@sharanv9182]

maybe in 2 years?

[@madokakaname471]

im from the future and its less than 2 years lol

[@sharanv9182]

lol haha wp

[@andrewstelmach2717]

are you moving to Texas to live or just visiting?

[@andrewstelmach2717]

+xaviercharles so living?

[@Kyrator88]

That warrior game was so sad. Trump drew literally none of the synergy in his deck.

[@PHILTente]

The easiest way to calculate the chance for the Cthun is the bernullie chain in this case : (12!/(6! (12-6)!) )0.5^6 0.5^(12-6)

[@thehelixoflife2682]

I wonder if he'll keep doing f2p runs once he goes through all of the classes

[@raustzeal4212]

why is it not 50%?

[@anandparera]

Can someone please explain why it is more than 50%?

[@ColeckZz]

cause it doesn't matter where 6 1damage bolts go, and it doesnt hav to happen in a specified order. as long as 6 of the 12 hit the minion.

[@xavieryeo4172]

Man trump i just came back from learning stats to relax

[@cthuneerinokripperino5423]

Can someone tell me a class that i could use for now i just started whats the est new player class but no mage plz

[@jared6002]

It depends mostly on what you open and what your play style is. Zoo for warlock is cheap but you would be missing some cards because of adventures. Pirate warrior is cheap and so is many of the C'thun decks that are able to bring you to at least rank 10

[@prozacdick]

Mage is really good but okay. Warlock (zoo) is really good for starting out if you have the dust/cards. Cthun Druid is also amazing for a somewhat cheap cost. The legendaries in each deck (I don't know what site you would use, they differ) are replaceable but i suggest crafting them if you plan on continuing to use them.

[@otterhero6229]

I find druid and/ or hunter very easy. Good rogue decks are also very cheap to make.

[@RyuzakiLaw1]

A correction. Brann's second in LOE, not third.

[@phijkchusatanicsalamence4161]

19:35 Watch the whole video before commenting.

[@qwerty32600]

4:38 Why is that so?

[@lamaofamal8245]

19:25 trump is a fishy ! xD

[@ZEGTHEFISH]

Reno is in the first wing though :P

[@RazekiYT]

Am I the only person who paused the video at 4:43 to figure out the odds of killing the stormwind champion? (update: its ~61%)

[@seanolejar3055]

Corroborating the fact that it's approximately 61% chance to kill the Champion. Yay for probability

[@TheIlidius]

tonight on my legend62 acc i played an arena(first time for like 2 months) and I gone 0/3..... I was like "let's just forget that thus thing even exist " XD

[@Driendel]

nameless paladin comeback 8:19

[@ehex3]

I'm so addicated to the F2P series .. 8|

[@rahn45]

Since someone hit legend using a Worgen OTK deck that uses nothing but basic and common cards, could go both Druid and Warrior easily.

[@lukynn8969]

Trump at 24 - Goes against guy with 1:7 Taunt, Me at 24 - Goes against P2W Dragon Mage. Unlucky.

[@nikkiisisawesome]

Dragon Mage? That's not a thing

[@lukynn8969]

Trust me, at rank 24, everything is a thing.

[@tyyw10]

I feel you.... at the lowest ranks I go against the top meta decks and it makes me so mad... lol.

[@pugzfolife3176]

With the Stormwind champion there is a 8.33333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333

[@pugzfolife3176]

Of it surviving...

[@chillstreakfa3496]

PogChamp

[@alexluna6238]

Is this arena? EleGiggle

[@PagingDoctorGuy]

why did you move to texas?

[@ThxMiketsukami]

Go with Pirates Trump!

[@heliosonroblox2429]

22:20 is missed lethal

[@iv4nx3]

where is trump at ? new place ? travel ???

[@Makeveni]

that hunter should have won that. if he quickshot the bog, attack with 4 hounds, and then face with the last hound and weapon, there would be no lethal for trump. next turn hero power and suicide the gnome for lethal

[@virshirevirshul3083]

It's like 61.3%. I ran 100,000,000 simulations with a Java program and had the computer determine the percent of times the Stormwind died.

[@virshirevirshul3083]

import java.util.Random; public class Stats { public static void main(String args[]) { double total = 0d; double killed = 0d; Random generator = new Random(); for (int i = 0; i < 100000000; i++) { int hits = 0; if (i % 1000000 == 0) { System.out.println(i/1000000); } for (int j = 0; j < 12; j++) { if (generator.nextBoolean()) { hits++; } if (hits >= 6) { j = 12; killed += 1d; } } total += 1d; } System.out.println(killed/total*100f); } }

[@archniki_]

i vote for 2 classes or even more :D

[@devonknapp9168]

I made a new account so I can follow along with you with a f2p account it is fun!

[@isaacschlipp8169]

i think the theoretical probability of killing stormwind is 100%

[@sdrowsdrawkcab2098]

"Mark of yashuraj"

[@KarstenOkk]

I don't think swiping the 5/4 was entirely wrong. Would have been a decent enough play.