Understanding Societal Collapse with Complexity Scientist Peter Turchin

What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? Is there any way to stop history repeating itself today? Peter Turchin has mined 10,000 years of data to find the answer.
Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable - by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it.
In this live event, he will present a ground-breaking account of how human societies work, explaining how, when the shifting balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, elite overproduction leads to state breakdown. It happened in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War - and it is happening now.
#PeterTurchin #ComplexityScience #SocietalCollapse #PoliticalTurbulence #SocialBreakdown #EliteOverproduction #StateBreakdown

[@john1425]

So ironic to listen to the host talk about the problem while simultaneously being unaware he is an example if it.

[@daffyf6829]

Although I get what you're saying, I doubt he is unaware. I get the feeling he was given the directive from his boss to protect the elite that academia relies on for donations.

[@john1425]

@@daffyf6829 Just seems like run if the mill Trump Derrangement Syndrome and Climate Cult stuff.

[@blaeks]

They are castrated and fearfull.

[@aslkdjfzxcv9779]

ah, irony. have you considered your part in the collapse?

[@vannoo67]

I get the feeling that the whole audience were Aspiring Elites

[@woof7679]

If the revolution happens this interviewer is one of the first to go.

[@Andimlikerawr]

lol

[@Solsys2007]

Well said

[@blaeks]

The most vanilla talk about societal collapse published these days. Impotence at its finest. They are castrated and fearfull. No one will bother to touch these...

[@Solsys2007]

@@blaeks Fear the person that has nothing left to lose, and an axe to grind, they will do any job they deem "necessary".

[@blaeks]

@@Solsys2007 true

[@jasonmoser8957]

Host wrecked this talk

[@1ireneaustin]

Wrecked like screeeeeeeech BANG

[@georgeflitzer7160]

It’s not just competition but needed cooperation is necessary

[@wlim1260]

I'm watching this in July 2023 while France burns with looting. This feels so prescient.

[@teddybearroosevelt1847]

The French always protest. It’s just what they do and what they’ve always done. Same shit, different day

[@deathbycognitivedissonance5036]

​@teddybearroosevelt1847 These recent riots were not "The French." Pull your head out of the sand.

[@jonspengler5891]

That’s multiculturalism

[@eaglesrule1415]

This interviewer could easily be an advisor to our corrupt political elites. Why our society is in the sad state it is in. Honestly oblivious to their role in our societies decline. From Hope and Change which I bought into to five million people kicked out of their homes and executives keeping bonuses with taxpayer dollars. After covid worse than ever. CARES Act is latest example.

[@ArthurSchoppenweghauer]

He knows damned well that mass immigration benefits wealthy elites at the expense of the native population. He knows it and doesn't care because he's a rootless globalist.

[@calumroche2851]

41:15 Why would we not want elites wiped out and capital appropriation?

[@cgoble72]

I know, if the solution to an occurring societal collapse is to double down on climate authoritarianism, the person is obviously missing something foundational (about structural demographic theory). It is utopian thinking on par with "if everyone converted to Christianity" or "if everyone gave up their possessions an labour for a true communist state". The way to test if an individual follows science or dogma is to ask them 'clean hands' questions (from Atran's "In Gods We Trust"): if Trump policies le to a decrease in the wealth pump as Turchin said at one point, and if that also shut off the immigration pump which may (or may not) lead to real wage growth for commoners due to labour shortage, would you support such a thing or not. The answer to that (on both sides) is why this societal collapse will not stop and hasn't yet hit bottom

[@dshepherd107]

Same feeling here

[@TheJoshuacheng]

Sums up today’s UK in general (especially southern England)

[@georgea44]

Interviewers political biases didn’t help this flesh out interesting topic. Real shame.

[@brianwheeldon4643]

Biases or poor questioning.

[@jamesbryson575]

Agreed

[@Natty183]

Awkward interviewer. I could feel Turchin's reactions in my body. He did a great job off trying to transmit the information he wanted to though.

[@jtzoltan]

The interviewer ironically buys into the corrupt veneer of nonsense that current elites use to veil the wealth pumps running hotter than ever before. It's like he's presumed the Democrats in the US or Lib-Dems/Labour in the UK are doing their best to get us out of the poly-crisis, gosh darn-it, but greedy MAGA Republicans are whipping up a white-lash.. it's like, no, these elites in the Dems especially ramping up since the Clinton admin and for longer in the UK have been breaking down the social contract with social engineering and unsustainable spending, counterproductive policy, undermining education and social capital, etc. They have much more to do with the breakdown than the populist right movements. So do the business and Neoconservative elites that captured the Republican party a long whilr ago. George Bush Senior was the director of the CIA in the 70s and his son kicked off the most recent run of US wealth pump Imperialism that Obama and Biden extended. People have to escape blue team red team manipulation. It's the Uniparty.

[@DouglasHPlumb]

Right on, like the problems didn't start with fundamental changes of law that allowed those with a different personality to enter our politic. This guy is establishment.

[@akasetkya6253]

Reminds me of the saying”Give the devil a horse and he will ride straight to hell”

[@paulheydarian1281]

Except that the Devil is a hermaphrodite.

[@akasetkya6253]

An evolutionary process that seems a future option for us if the fertility researchers are correct. Parthenogenesis!

[@gen21617]

Good saying. Who is the devil in this argument and why is he going to hell?

[@j-dub.d-tray]

If one plans to upload a conversation to youtube, they should pay attention to audio production quality. Really does a disservice to the audience and the speakers

[@gilianrampart8514]

Sounds fine to me!

[@michaelfried3123]

@@gilianrampart8514 I had to crank my speakers to hear it, I think the microphone he was holding is sub par.

[@deborahdean8867]

I agree, I cant hold thos to my ear for an hour. I can see how their voices fade as soon as they move their hands slightly, so I think the mucs are inferior but wish they'd increased the volume. Its especially necessary with a guest with a heavy accent and talks fast intermittently and mumbles.

[@funnyguyinlondon]

The host keeps making value based arguments on crazy shit like net zero, just transition, policies on which are actually causing more emiseration to the poor contrary to narrative. The author smartly skirts away form affirming the implied value judgement on those nutty ideas from the host

[@achenarmyst2156]

The dominance of materially based arguments got us into the global ecological crisis that might well wipe humanity out in the long run. So value based arguments are urgently required. In a closed system, which our planet is, immiseration of the poor is only preventable by „immiseration“ of the rich.

[@qMartink]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/pKekk357bZKdj6M

[@Liam-B]

For me, this kind of thought plugs right in with Eric Hoffer's, "The True Believer". That said, I am also pleasantly surprised yet refreshed at the poignancy of the questions, and with the simple yet precise language used to really illustrate the ideas Turchin shares. I always appreciate well thought out communication with a sincere yet empirical human being, especially if said human being is a bona fide expert.

[@peacesound1101]

A sober analysis, so much a sober perspective "backed by fact" and running parallel to intuition; it gives me shivers...

[@ShivMathur]

read my book “Social Pandemic” - A Terminally ill Modern Society

[@tjunglec]

The early 70s is when we lost real money. Its not a coincidence. Fiat money puts the cantilon effect on steroids.

[@daffyf6829]

Precious metal currency was an improvement to granary based currency because gold doesn't rot or get consumed. Paper money representing precious metals was an improvement to precious metal coins because it can't be split or shaved or otherwise reduced. Fiat currency is an improvement on precious metal based currency because it is way more efficient and less costly than storing, securing, maintaining and transporting precious metals.

[@ScarletKnightmare]

​@@daffyf6829Fiat money cannot be split or shaved, it can be created out of thin air. Are you taking a piss?

[@marcariotto1709]

@daffyf6829 Simply isn't enough physical PMs to back world money and grow like the world did and use it for industry also.

[@judytaquino6412]

"Absolute power corrupts absolutely." Remember the Stanford Prison Experiment 1971?

[@mikepj67]

It’s a flawed experiment, influenced by the person conducting said study. Has been tried again with different results everyone was rather helpful and nice to one another.

[@dinnerwithfranklin2451]

Except that in the Stanford Prison Experiment they excluded psychopaths and sociopaths. The elite select for those traits.

[@screenarts]

Absolutely

[@carlopoy1251]

I can't believe how many educated people like this interviewer still choose to believe that oligarchs mean it well and "don't conspire like a medieval king would do"... Also: Who explains to this idiot (interviewer) that creating jobs is just a matter of political will and that the main reason why that political will is lacking it's because the oligarchs (who, as evidence suggests, own all of the Western governments) want to be the only ones who determine wages?

[@silentmajority9162]

Oligarchs are never mean well but it seen to be an inevitable when society develop.

[@neovxr]

We are conflating definitions of elites. 1. those who contribute on high levels, because they are educated, knowledgeable, inspiring, and have talent of leadership. Practically a benign meritocracy. 2. those who have money and power, and their power is a result of networking and meddling with human communication, for instance control over media by ownership structures and advertising schemes.

[@adriankovac1943]

I know highly capable Silicon Valley engineers who are great capable people but their ideas are so out their that they can help nobody

[@dinnerwithfranklin2451]

I'm not sure that conflation is accidental.

[@neovxr]

@@adriankovac1943 no doubt, but can you give us a name or an exmple?

[@deborahdean8867]

All they mean by elites are people who have alot of money and social position, standing or power.

[@BobQuigley]

Here in Us Reagan and Friedman unleashed greed. It became law in some states and practice in the entire country that corporations have only one command. More money for stockholders. Simultaneously companies dropped pensions. 70 million boomers were chained to this model. Today their retirements are nearly 100% dependent on corporate dividends, splits etc. This group, my group, are following Mr Turchin's iron law! We want more more more. More houses vacations clothes jewelry and on and on. Our stocks can never drop. We invest more in risky businesses. Insider trading is now normalized. We well off rarely if ever have tax audits. All as we spew 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases pollution into our shared atmosphere while doing deep damage to the biosphere which is the source of all life.

[@gregoryburne5251]

“The glorification of greed” , I’d say was the start…

[@jamespier7801]

Yes, Reagan and Friedman are the ones responsible for human beings being greedy. There was no sign of this greed until they arrived on the scene. 🙄

[@thewrightoknow]

Greed is in every persons heart, I know it is in mine! When is it enough?

[@gordonpepper1400]

@@thewrightoknow Couldn't disagree more, greed is produced thru ideology. We could easily set up a society whereby greed was not a dominant attribute at all.

[@thewrightoknow]

@@gordonpepper1400 I think the heart of man throughout the history of mankind is self evident that selfishness is in every person, even those who think not.

[@shamster7182]

The recipeients of the wealth pumps response to the threat of pitch forks has been embracing as a facade so called woke capitalism (ESG), e.g. in western countries aggresive support of lgbtqia (whilst the same corporates completely ignoring in eastern cultures).

[@casteretpollux]

Exactly : CIA sponsored the Neo Marxists.

[@freonsp]

Exactly, and no one explains that better than James Lindsay

[@dinnerwithfranklin2451]

Exactly, but the whole "woke" machine has a second purpose. It also discredits the "Left", in that they have labeled it leftist and people aren't smart enough anymore to examine that.

[@tom-kz9pb]

Aggressive support for LGBTQ? We were treated like felon criminals under the law even in "liberal" Massacusetts, in my lifetime. The ones most bringing about societal and global collapse are the gay-hating, Christian-embracing authoritarians like Vladimir Putin, who constantly threatens nuclear war, disrupts global grain supplies, kills hundreds of thousands, creates orphans, Same for Trump, who calls global warming a "hoax", while unprecedented climate disasters are occurring around the globe, and called covid a "hoax" before it killed over a million Amercans. You can try to scapegoat gays, just like Christian professional bigots have tried to blame gays for hurricanes, earthquakes and 9/11. But your collapse is mostly due to your own choices, Your collapse, in the eyes of a gay man, is fully your just deserts. I no longer dream of real justice, or to change you, or to try to make friends with people like you, All that is left is a desire to watch your bigoted ilk fall into the mass graves that you've been digging for yourselves.

[@SuspendedLogic]

His thesis probably won’t get much elite media coverage.

[@harbifm766766]

Most of the elites that control universities , media , banks, and libral Tribe people believe the same marxis ideas or ideals this ignorant person spaw...

[@subcitizen2012]

You mean mainstream. Academics and their interviews and lectures are usually regarded as elites anyway, of which he's been doing a lot lately promoting his book. I'd ditch the ideologically loaded elite word, it's been overused to the point of being meaningless. Anyone with job security is an elite, but too often thats loaded up to mean a faceless enemy in control of everything. A lot of figures and alternative left media are referencing and quoting Turchin, that's how I found him. mainstream news media also doesn't usually cover theory as need though, it covers events mostly. So I'm not sure why you're even expecting them to do that, you're just setting yourself up for disappointment. Allegedly Turchin predicted Jan 6th though, not sure if that's explicitly true yet. Not sure if CSPAN books is still around or whatever, but maybe he'll start popping up and embraced by the elites, as you would put it. Anyway, you're expectations are too high, and your terminology loaded. The media you are talking about doesn't generally cover things like this because it's not a news event. Maybe if the book is successful he'll be featured for short interviews and clips, like the occassional academic that becomes mainstream along with current events. Or maybe it's all a big conspiracy to hide the truth from us because elites be eliting. Most people would get lost and/or resent what Turchin is presenting anyway, the masses aren't ready to self reflect or take self responsibility. It's not the illuminati we have to worry about, it's the illiterati that are so easily swayed by the winds of capital.

[@Knaeben]

"Elite" media is all just propaganda.

[@vintinoo1924]

You're so smart.

[@Vscustomprinting]

problem is affluence, not elitism.. top 25% shittin on the bottom 75%, and the 75% dont realize that 9ettin9 on the top 25%s level i unsustainable... o well

[@charlessoukup1111]

Good analogy ..more & more players scrambling for fewer and fewer chairs, removing not one but several chairs each round ... It's gonna get physical fast.

[@hilaryporter7841]

That was the sort of conversation that requires time to digest. Thank you.

[@paulheydarian1281]

I suggest taking a mental laxative. 😏

[@a.randomjack6661]

@@paulheydarian1281 Is that what you used to shit your brain out? 😁

[@gen21617]

It is telling that these ideas are new to you. The question you really need to ask is who owns our political infrastructure and how do we implement democracy more democratically?

[@dwdelve]

6:16 What are you doing trying to rewrite history? Get your facts straight you lying $#@%

[@churblefurbles]

Not only are they not new, they are dilluted to appeal to what seems to be a lefty audience. Demographics and other important factors left out.

[@Amfortas]

Wow all our issues just happen to be related to solutions that involve giving the government more money!

[@craigs8505]

You mean giving rich people more money?

[@stephendalton1648]

You mean more taxes?

[@TheKrouton]

Unfortunately that seems to be true. The only time in U.S. history, and one of the few times in world history such massive wealth inequality has been reversed without mass violence was the Progressive Era after the Gilded Age.

[@Ikbeneengeit]

If you're the 1%, then yes.

[@screenarts]

Government is the creator of it own currency. Government debt is sovereign debt and can be spent directly into circulation. Demand for government money debt, is created by it must be used to pay your taxes. Private banks inflate the currency through fractional reserve lending. Lending what they don't have at interest, and the interest, the loan principal was never actually created. The private banks collect actual created hard currency in loan payments. Money for nothing total controle for free. Federal reserve bank is a private bank originally for profit until most American people took gi bill loans and went directly into debt to the private banks. There is a whole history to how we got here they don't want you to know. I can't teach it in a chat. So do your self a favor stfu until you understand the debt based economic system. Your government doesn't need to barrow money its a sovereign. NY banks wanted 40% interest to fight the civil war. Lincoln simply printed 500 million in greenbacks fought and won the Civil War with it. Read!!!

[@LongDefiant]

Interviewer doesn't want to lose his seat at aspirant chairs

[@downandout73]

Increases in wages & social security need to be indexed to inflation, or it's useless.

[@dinnerwithfranklin2451]

That seems to make sense so I have to ask why they haven't been indexed to inflation (and things like COLAs have been removed). The obvious answer for me is that to index these things to inflation means less profit is there to extract with the "wealth pump"

[@downandout73]

@@dinnerwithfranklin2451 I have to say, I think you're right.

[@angelosenteio]

The only time in human history that working class people had upward social mobility was under the threat of communism. We need a true left political party to remind them of the alternative.

[@tom-kz9pb]

I was not sure that there was anyone left who had that insight. Bingo. It is the wealthy who most fear Marxism and communism, the real reason being that they simply don't want their stashes, good life, and ill-gotten gains touched. The little people are suckers for the rich man's propaganda, so work against their own class interests, But capitalism, in addition to waging vicious, no-holds-barred open war and covert war on anything to the left of Reagan, also has had to make concessions to the little people, precisely to ward off the chance of their being seduced by the Marxist siren song.

[@john1425]

Hate that the interviewer dragged the level of discourse down so low with his own narrow political worldview.

[@ScarletKnightmare]

You know the "activists" who throw paint on priceless Rembrandts? That's this interviewer.

[@yossarian67]

Turchin mentions the elites fighting each other… which got my excited for the Musk and Zuckerberg pay per view cage match. Woot

[@bruceclark4754]

Did he turn on his microphone. Cant these clever people manage to produce good sound quality?

[@casteretpollux]

It is a rule of relativity. As intellect increases sound quality decreases.

[@mavr1215]

Wow! Stop lecturing and let the man talk!

[@attilathearmenian]

That point in the 70s Turchin speaks about is us getting off the gold standard.

[@timothykalamaros2954]

Interlocutor was asking some good questions but yes it was awkward. Turchin is a genius

[@JebacPresretac101]

Sure, if plagiarizing Marx makes him a genius, yes, he is.

[@prattfan]

Interlocutor is obtuse

[@rexxx4fun]

Daniel Schmachtenberger's Consilience Project is a quite good place to start in this conversation.....

[@tarico4436]

Shout out to the Schmack! He makes this guy look like an eager high school student. I've only watched the first ten minutes of this video, and am done with it. Yes, some of my hesitancy is because of his heavy accent, but he's not really getting into any juicy meat and potatoes. Ten minutes of the Schmack and I was hooked; have since watched several hours of his talks.

[@gilianrampart8514]

​@@tarico4436you are strange

[@vladdumitrica849]

Countries with parliaments (representative democracy) are in fact oligarchies (few lead). In order to be a true democracy, the decisions of the Parliament should be submitted to the approval of the citizens. The "fatigue" of democracy occurs when there is a big difference between the interests of those elected and the voters, so people lose confidence in the way society function. As a result, the poor and desperate citizens will vote with whoever promises them a lifeline, i.e. the populists or demagogues. The democratic aspect is a side effect in societies where economies have a strong competitive aspect, where the interests of those who hold economic power in society are divergent. Thus, those with money, and implicitly with political power in society, are supervising each other so that none of them have undeserved advantages due to politics. Because of this, countries with large mineral resources, like Russia and Venezuela (their share in GDP is large), do not have democratic aspects, because a small group of people can exploit these resources in their own interest. In poor countries, the main resource exploited may even be the state budget, as they have converging interests in benefiting, in their own interest, from this resource. This is what is observed in Romania, Bulgaria, when, no matter which party comes to power, the result is the same. The solution is modern direct democracy in which every citizen can vote, whenever he wants, over the head of the parliamentarian who represents him. He can even dismiss him if most of his voters consider that their interests are not right represented. Those who think that democracy is when you choose someone to make decisions for you without him having to consult you, are either a fool or a scoundrel. It's like when you have to choose from several thieves who will steal from you. It's like when you have to build a house and you choose the site manager and the architect, but they don't have the duty to consult with you. The house will certainly not look the way you want it, but the way they want it, and even more surely you will be left without money and without the house. It is strange that outside of the political sphere, you will not find, in any economic or sports activity, someone elected to a leadership position and who has failure after failure and who is fired only after 4 years. We, the voters, must be consulted about the decisions and if they have negative effects we can dismiss them at any time, without to wait until the term to be fulfilled, because we pay, not them. In any company, the management team comes up with a plan approved by the shareholders. Any change in this plan must be re-approved by the shareholders and it is normal because the shareholders pay.

[@lelin70]

I so much agee with your comment. But… As with popularism where politicians will say anything to get to power, people tend to vote for short term gains. Is that all good? Since the world around u dont work that way the direct democratic model wont provide for long time planning that is needed to always make sure your society is not taken over by another state that on long term plans to conquer more land and resources including the place where u live. Looks like we humans cant figure out a model that works long term and even if we could we dont seem to be able to stick to such a model over time. And we are only human, humans apear with different driving aspirations and tend to use whatever model from marxism to democarcy to justify their personal gain.

[@louistan7560]

The US and the UK are the best examples.

[@thurstonhowellthetwelf3220]

Ecological overshoot, resource depletion, population, bio physical economics..put them in the mix.. energy is key to explaining our past /future trajectory..

[@subcitizen2012]

50 years of oil reserves left and 100 years of uranium left, and still limited resources and ability to access renewables at scale. The dystopian future is a bit scary to say the least.

[@gen21617]

So is the corporate hostile buyout of the global political system.

[@TEKim-lk6op]

New energy sources will do very little to benefit the "lower classes" since this new energy will only be controlled by elites. Same with any technology. It doesn't help all unless it is free from elite control.

[@Amfortas]

Wow all our issues just happen to be related to solutions that involve giving the government more money!

[@Adnancorner]

@@subcitizen2012 50 years of oil reserves says who ? Iraq alone is using few of the oil fields and majority are unused and are closed after the 2003 democracy installation by western nations. Iran Venezuela is sanctioned with 3 or 4 largest oil reserves.Giant reserves in Kazakhstan and Caspian basin, where did you find the information of 50 years ? There is not enough copper to "transition" to Green dream.

[@lustgarten]

Ask the 1000s of tech employees fired how that employer concern is working out.

[@MarkPoserina-xj5ft]

The workers became obsolete. That’s why they became obsolete. Like the flight engineer and navigator in an airline cockpit. A corporation’s primary responsibility is returning shareholder value. Plain and simple. Instead of fighting it, own shares in companies with growing revenue and improving margins.

[@johnhagan-zr4pm]

You don't "undo this" You endure it

[@ChrisAthanas]

6:19 that’s not what happened at all but the created media reaction by the ruling elite is exactly what Peter is referring to

[@subcitizen2012]

What if that's what the ruling media elite want your to believe?

[@matttorrence2900]

That’s why I don’t think the sky is that bright, cause he could not see through the propaganda.

[@kateoneal4215]

This guy's great! I've listened to several of his talks.

[@augustusomega4708]

ETR !!

[@michaeljensen4650]

The presenter however could not be more full of shit. Everything he said was a repetition of old views and arguments which are nothing more than propaganda. How do people like him live with themselves. Oh I forgot, they have no conscience.

[@coreyhingley6196]

Any recommendations?

[@jamesx9881]

Audio Quality?

[@superdeluxesmell]

I’m old enough to remember when priests were the “scientists” of the apocalypse.

[@NapoleonGelignite]

Priests didn’t give us computers, medicine, space flight, etc It’s a pity you can’t see the benefit of the scientific method and can only go as far as ‘I like/don’t like it’.

[@superdeluxesmell]

@@NapoleonGelignite They kiiiind of did though. There would be no science without the work of Catholic and Muslim members of religious orders in the Middle Ages. I’m not going to list the priests in the modern era who made deep contributions to the enlightenment. Anyway, the irony is that you’re the small minded person who is putting words in my mouth and fabricating a straw man. I made no comment about the scientific method. I was commenting on eschatological thinking, which is what a lot of climate change discussion is. Anyone with an understanding of the history of thought can see the straight line going from Greta Thunberg to Noah’s Ark. You’re clearly just another internet NPC who wants me to be some sort of Republican denier of everything. A boring and heavily unscientific presumption. Bye.

[@deborahdean8867]

@@NapoleonGelignite that's not what he said. He said protests used to be the ones delivering apocalypse speeches, the 'scientists' of apocalypse.

[@GeorgeTsiros]

now it is programmers!

[@NapoleonGelignite]

@@GeorgeTsiros - you seem ok with programmers making your phone useful. You should go back to chalk and blackboards.

[@christinesmith1499]

Omg, Chris Hedges has been telling us this for 15 years, it’s time to act now, Jesus, Mary and Joseph!

[@nejcj1]

Yes, I really like the idea of renaming sociology into complexity science. :D

[@thesh1ttyactivist]

Really great conversation, however I'm confused as to how speakers can both talk about a coming collapse yet repeatedly endorse the policies of one of the two corporate political parties as the solution?

[@Truthkindnesslovefunhealth67]

Very biased interviewer.

[@beliefpropagation2421]

It's predictable criminality that the closed caption regularly replaces "immiseration"with "immigration"

[@haraldthi]

An interesting analysis. Only, I find it incomplete fot various reasons. So do you really think you are going to help when you are yourselves a part of the problem?

[@araki916]

Think of elitist, Ivy League and exclusive colleges. I would submit that tech-elite and the coupling of concentrated media are catalyst to a post-dystopia culture/society. Couple that with AI/ML systems that will reduce free will and will accelerate pre-determined social engineers. "Things are getting weird. "😅

[@michaelfried3123]

GO BUCKS!

[@MrRollingEgo]

Fortunately, free will does not exist.

[@pwcrabb5766]

I hope that the man's book is more clear than his spoken thoughts. 😢

[@bradleyholland4881]

Spoken thoughts are only ever as clear as the mind that receives them.

[@kharmalade544]

Yes, the main impression I came away with is that society may soon collapse under the weight of its academic fads.

[@jtzoltan]

​@@bradleyholland4881true, but intelligibility of the message matters. Internal coherence. You can also have 2 intelligent minds who can't connect despite competent messaging. Extreme example: one speaks modern English only, the other one Old Anglo Saxon English only

[@bradleyholland4881]

@@jtzoltan your example is not extreme, it is absurd because such an example doesn’t exist in reality. And who said that intelligibility doesn’t matter?

[@Padraigp]

​@@bradleyholland4881or the mouth thats speaks them In fairness he speaks wirha. Jeavy accent a loap and speaks wirh an odd cadance. Its not exactly weird that somone would find his speech difficult to comprehend.

[@briskyoungploughboy]

Not disagreeing with Turchin's "wealth pump" proposition, but I guess because he is a social scientist rather than an economist, and more aware of industrial capitalism because of his age and background, he only recognises @9:50 the falling proportion of wages relative to productivity since the 1970's as the means whereby money is "pumped" from workers to employers. He doesn't mention the parallel massive rise in financial capitalism, causing household debt to both make falling wages possible without crashing the economy (since aggregate demand = wages +new credit), and to grow to be the biggest part of the pump- from household income to bank's shareholders.

[@KimSooAcu]

Great conversation, GREAT information. I don't agree that we need the elites. That may be true in organized society, but I no longer want that.

[@atticustay1]

We don’t need elites for organised society.

[@KimSooAcu]

@@atticustay1 id like to find out.

[@ianboard544]

It's semantics. You are going to have to have some people running things. Once you have that, you have elites. Call it what you want.

[@derek8149]

This line of thinking is a sign of revolution. There are always elites and hierarchies in society. No such thing as a utopia where everyone contributes to decisionmaking and leadership equally and everyone receives the same amount of wealth and resources. Last I heard they tried that in the Soviet Union and communist China, and ended back into an oligarchy where a few elites controlled all once more, and killed tens of millions to get there. Even in nature there are always hierarchies in every animal group. You may not want it but it is a law of nature and cannot be avoided, only tweaked

[@ScottStentenFilms]

thanks for this amazing and great,,,but you guys could call this "The Weatlh Pump" instead of Understanding Societal Collapse with Complexity Scientist Peter Turchin,,,maybe you will excerpt the highlights and change the title,,, not complaining love it, but showbiz works for a reason,,,thanks again

[@timothygrayson]

Wealthiest nations bring about a feel good factor with reduction of social discord. Economic decline tends to signify a collapse of social intergration. The antagonism towards immigrants increases and family ties can weaken. But, the solution does not lie in economic prosperity in fact it destroys the natural world, increases social disparities around the world and spoiling the harmony between ethnic groups because we denude natural resources. Blaming Russia and China will ultimately denigrate relations and trust and only bring warfare. Capitalism relies upon a endless supply of resources which the Western empires have enjoyed for many centuries but the halcyon days are finished and in a civilised world we should be sharing resources and consuming less. Poverty is natural but suffering is unwelcome. Boxing in ethnic groups into economic ghettos is not a solution as it will break the link between us and our natural world. Some nations are too wealthy enriched by centuries of exploitation of nature. If I can survive on a tea cake then why not another? Greed and self worship has undermind compassion and realities of our impact on a finite resource. We need to live in smaller communities which survive through local resources but do not desire wealth but a rational essential to life on earth. 29:02

[@achenarmyst2156]

Thank you 👏

[@vancecookcobain]

Sounds like Marx describing Historical Materialism. Dude was really ahead of his time

[@jdsbusa]

Less than 10 minutes before biases started showing.

[@free_at_last8141]

Did you forget to turn the microphones on?

[@dlschweppe]

Oh joy. At the interviewer's blatant misinformation regarding Jan 6 2021, I stopped watching.

[@cbarcus]

Recent US industrial policy is driving innovation and market creation to boost fundamental economic productivity over the coming decades. Too many people are focusing on the renewable energy provisions, and ignoring the economic potential of hydrogen and advanced nuclear power. This new industrial revolution will create an abundant sustainable economy. Excess abundance can be used to provide a generous universal basic income, so full employment is not necessary for social stability. This new policy is among the most important in history, and if political stability can be maintained and the provisions properly shepherded by devoted stewards, the windfall in wealth will be unbelievable. We should start seeing an explosion in growth within a decade when the new technology begins to rapidly scale. Once it gets going, it will be a lot easier to decarbonize the rest of the planet. To raise the planet out of poverty, we can start by trying to double energy per capita to the level of Western Europe, which will increase the global economy from around $100 trillion to somewhere between $200-300 trillion. Cheap sustainable power will enable mass recycling, universal air conditioning and heating, mass desalination, and even carbon capture to reduce the atmospheric concentration of CO2 back down to pre-industrial levels. There is no certainty that the energy transition will happen in time. Political and social instability can give rise to empires as opposed to the economic integration of democracies. Climate tipping points could take warming to a point where it becomes self-sustaining, despite the decarbonization of industry. Hotheaded maniacs could open Pandora’s box by using nuclear weapons in desperation and revenge.

[@harlanmueller7499]

Well, let us hold. Our goals are not net 0. That doesn’t produce the energy is jacks up energy costs, and it’s damaging to the firemen.

[@neovxr]

Youth - Revolution - War In our time we have lots of tricks in place Youth is being lured into new crusades, hypermoralistic education, so they don't revolt against elite but fight on behalf of elite. There are reports about the voluntary mercenaries for Ukraine, Palki Sharma had a report about the training camps with interviews. It showed eliticist ideology and hypermorality among them. Arab Spring had a problem that no one seems to understand. First, it was gaslighted by the Facebook algorithm, they overestimated themselves. Second, in every extended family in Egypt and other countries there is a policeman and a higher military person. They have good reputation in their families, other than in the West. They took over the situation on the ground and in the families, and after some difficulty, youth lined up behind them again.

[@timothykalamaros2954]

Talk to some lawyers - the law bosses definitely wan to immiserate the lower strata. Literally, and not accidentally!

[@mohamedseleem]

i love the scientists are trying to rediscover historical dialectics without ever reading Hegel or Marx, fascinating people these positivists

[@joejohnson6327]

Turchin went to university in Moscow in the '70s, of course he's familiar with Marx. All Soviet high school students had to take Marxism classes.🙄

[@ofnair]

Turchin has read Marx, and his theories do, partially, incorporate Marx insights. He does, however, reject Marx as being some kind of allknowing God. And he also incorporates Malthus, a guy Marx hated.

[@subcitizen2012]

Lol, alright. What does that make you then? Something else so easy to refute out of hand?

[@evanhadkins5532]

Toynbee 2.0?

[@casteretpollux]

​@@joejohnson6327If they had been seriously studying Marx hard to see how the 80s and 90s happened.

[@richardharvey1732]

Hi The Conduit, this is the first time I have watched one of your videos. This guest clearly has his brain switched on from the start, he correctly dismisses any use of collapse-ology if for no other reason than such events are always occurring and the only relevant issue is the location and perspective of the observer. Sections of human communities are always traversing similar dynamic states, from generation to degeneration, the only thing that really varies is the scale. There are clearly some fundamental principles implied by the fact that periods societal and economic growth are always followed by periods of decline, there must be some primary drivers for this to be so consistent. So far all any of us have been able to do is describe the trajectory of various historical events in mechanical terms that do indicate a sequential series of causes and effects that suggest the primary cause of failure is inherent from the start, there are some factors in the initiation sequence that pre-condition the outcome. It will be here somewhere that some primary theory could be derived and I start by suggesting that there could be some aspects of human biological nature that inclines us to making false assumptions about the environment around us that leads us to making bad decisions about the deployment of resources I am inclined to start by listing all the assumptions that are currently in the public domain and examine each of them for empirical evidence in order to establish which of them qualify as cognitive delusion and which of the might have some foundation in reality. Suddenly I find myself swamped by the plethora of unsubstantiated assumptions that have no supporting evidence, among them are concepts that no-one feels competent to question, such as the intrinsic value of democracy, the idea that any other person could be more competent to direct your life than you can, that any other person is actually capable of acting properly in the interest of any other. There are many others that appear to me to be instrumental in the whole edifice of regulation and control, much of which seems to be related to the deep sense of insecurity that is so common in 'normal' humans, that feeling is more than enough to direct people to seek the protection of others perceived to be more powerful or competent. All sorts of other normal human characteristics play into this including the aspirations of the small cohort in each population that qualifies as an elite, a term which. I seek to avoid because it is too simplistic. What I mostly observe is the docile compliance of all the victims of tyranny as a primary driver of that tyranny. By this point I am of course facing a situation where it is clearly the weaknesses in human perception that allow most of the mis-direction and error and if this is actually the case then what we experience is nothing more or less than this species living according to the nature of its form and that makes such future ebbs and flows entirely natural and predictable. Cheers, Richard.

[@sturam30]

Okay, yeah 😵‍💫

[@hilaryporter7841]

Rather concerned that the first assumption you saw fit to put forward for investigation was democracy. My first assumption would have been to question why it is that greed drives the so called elite and and why enough is never enough. When we have the answer to that we may find ourselves on the way to a more peaceful future.

[@richardharvey1732]

@@hilaryporter7841 Hi Hilary porter, thank you for such a sensible response, my issue with the concept of democracy is based on its fundamental flaw! that the majority is always wrong!. When I first encountered this I was a bit put out by the sheer dogmatism of the claim but further investigation reveals that the underlying issue is the because any suggestion that a majority will vote for has to be so weakened and diluted or otherwise compromised that it is of no value!. More recently I have uncovered another more serious problem, relating to the fact that absolutely all of us live as separate individuals in our own space with our own sets of values and interests, while some of these o=are we have in common with others we cannot ever expect to live in any form of fully homogenous culture, this for ever precludes any sort of majority rule. The much more interesting topic you mention is the issue of primary motivation, that it would be nice to be able to understand why some people put such short term short sighted ambitions that we see as greed, those that I have met and talked to use a number of ways to justify themselves, the most common being some obscure reference to a distorted picture of evolution that 'explains' such selfishness. Sadly this falls apart at the first logical test where we find of course that sensible collaboration with other people can yield much greater benefits as long as you will allow others the freedom to do good things. For long time I considered the possibility that there might be some primary emotional driver or drivers and here we find some interesting ideas. It seems to me from observations of myself and many others that one of the b=natural characteristics of humans is quite high levels of emotional insecurity and anxiety, like others I thought that the origin of such feelings had to be some external events or agency and that stimulated the desire to control those events and agencies in order to suppress the feelings. I quickly found that nothing I could think of worked however hard I tried!. In the end I gave up trying, and guess what, with the pressure off everything seemed to change!, now I see others apparently still trapped in the same endless circle of effort and search for a security they don't even need. This could account quite neatly for why some sad individuals expend unlimited effort and resources to get richer and richer while getting more and more desperate. This is of course a major over-simplification, given that each and every one of them is on a similar but divergent path. each with its own unique agenda. There is one last small point that I feel I should try to make, when I was quite young I was sure that all I had to do was find out out what was going on and how it all works and I would be able to get some sort of grip on things, in my early thirties I began to realise that I had managed to resolve most of the mystery but it made absolutely no difference! we all us carry on doing things in the same weird ways regardless, it appears that not only do none of us ever have any real control over others we have even less over ourselves, everything that happens is the consequence of earlier decisions, by the time we realise what is happening the die is cast and all we can do is roll with it all. Then we get caught up in the next unpredicted round. I very much doubt that we mere humans have what it takes to behave in properly sensible ways. I suppose I do still hope to be proved wrong, perhaps you could be the one to do that!. Cheers, Richard.

[@BigHenFor]

Lol.

[@BigHenFor]

​@@richardharvey1732Sadly, your position isn't always correct. The majority isn't always wrong. It's just not right all the time. No-one is, including you. Ideas are definitely organic in that they evolve according to their environment, and deciding between one and another is rarely clear cut. Compromises often have to be made for progress to be possible. Uncertainty is a constant, and operating in that requires wisdom, which is hard work. So, the back and forth between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism about the human condition is a feedback loop that has consequences. So we should concentrate on the inputs. GIGO applies in every system.

[@shamster7182]

Is min wage a good way to turn off the pump? I think rather it just shifts the allocation of the available wage pool.

[@craigs8505]

Tax the rich. That or eat them.

[@EmpressEris]

Seize the means of production, deterrence, and automation. Replace the elites with a federated AI system.

[@stefanschnabel2769]

So many absurd and unhelpful questions asked. Why?

[@ArthurSchoppenweghauer]

The moderator's mic is way too loud compared to Turchin. Whoever was responsible for the audio should be fired.

[@averayugen7802]

Offshoring should have been made illegal long ago.

[@subcitizen2012]

This is one of the big ones. I haven't looked at other countries, it's probably similar, but for US and UK, supposedly there's enough money off shore they belongs in the respective systems and economies they the interest payments alone on that wealth are the entire tax base of the two nations. Our governments and our people have been robbed blind, and there's an air of complicity everywhere, it's why we seemingly can't reappropriate those funds.

[@davidotness6199]

But, but.... Freedumb!

[@toi_techno]

The chairman trying to defend the wealth elites by saying they are just passively and inadvertently enjoying the flow of wealth upwards was a very weird moment He must enjoy hanging out with rich people 🤠💵💶💷💴🤑

[@GeorgeTsiros]

WE allow the elite to exist. WE permit them to amass such wealth. They are playing a game and we PLAY ALONGA

[@brianwheeldon4643]

The key part of the issue at stake for humanity is the privilege far too many people assume is their right because they're have sufficient quantity of what ever passes for the legal medium of exhange to effectively destroy the biosphere. Here wecome up against criminal abuse of laws, treaties, people, planet and other life forms. We can't even get ecocide written into the treaty of Rome. Meanwhile we have eloquence everywhere in talks like this, and it's very likely all listening are a part of this extractive criminal class. Perhaps it's in our nature, yet we tell ourselves we are the clever species? But clearly not clever enough by a long way

[@stephendalton1648]

Few minutes in I realised the stark politicial bias and switched off

[@AdamGeest]

One way to constrain the elite would be to democratize the workplace. A democratically run workplace would channel the wealth pump more effectively without chasing away the elite.

[@jondavidgriffin]

That sounds incredibly inefficient. What kind of workplace to you spend your time in?

[@AdamGeest]

@@jondavidgriffin what is inefficient is our current economic system. Every 4 to 7 years it tanks leading to lost job opportunities, layoffs, etc. The current economic system also tends inexorably toward economic inequality, effectively imploding on itself. Any of the reforms we put in place to curb this tendency and turn off the wealth pump are eventually undone. We tolerate the inefficiency of democracy in the political sphere because democracy beats other forms of government. If democracy is so great why not democratize the economy? Arguably, without a democratized economy we cannot truly have a democratized political sphere. The workplace is where we spend some of the most productive hours and years of our lives. Why should our status as democratic agents end when we go to work?

[@jondavidgriffin]

@@AdamGeest you are making a couple of assumptions that shouldn't be made. Firstly that economic inequality is a bad thing, and secondly that democracy is a good thing. I don't agree with either.

[@AdamGeest]

@@jondavidgriffin Go be a slave in a capitalistically structured business where the man takes more than half of the value you add to the company away from you. Please do so in an authoritarian country.

[@jondavidgriffin]

@@AdamGeest what are you, like 19 years old or something? I started my own business. It's easy and cheap to set up you just need good ideas or a strong work ethic, or both.

[@johnhagan-zr4pm]

As is the generation of leaves, so to of men: At one time the wind shakes the leaves to the ground but then the flourishing woods Gives birth, and the season of spring comes into existence; So it is with the generations of men, which alternately come forth and pass away. -Homer, The Illiad, Book Six

[@VichoBandido]

How is it that these people are so blind. The man is there, speaking to him about the dynamics of societal breakdown, and the presenter is just blinded in his narrow views. If the guys read the book, he sounds like didn't understand it.

[@Dragito5555555555555]

Man says tech isn’t hiring foreigners to replace native workers. Bruh what is the country of India?!

[@jackgoldman1]

Honest measures, gold money honest results. Dishonest measures, credits, debts, crypto, pixels, digits, and of course we collapse.

[@gregorynuttall]

Another thought, I think his method is great to inform the present, but it doesn't help to inform what we could build in the future. He's using historical data which can only help us understand the present. That data can't really tell us what we can do. That's what human imagination is for.

[@alexcarter8807]

Love the bottle of vodka right there on the table. Honesty.

[@casteretpollux]

Marketing

[@fercos33]

The interviewer lost me when he referred to the Democratic Party as "the Left".

[@jan_deno8175]

සුරේන්ද්‍ර Covid කාලයේදී අපේ architecture undergraduates ලාට ඉතා වැඩදායක වැඩමුළුවක් කරා.

[@caesars7hills892]

It’s all to do with the money. The wealth pump is facilitated by fiat and cantilion effect. Hard money standard would only allow elites to be generated via merit.

[@annoloki]

That has never been true.

[@caesars7hills892]

@@annoloki The whole concept that this gentleman is complaining about is a wealth pump from seeking credentials without adding value to broader society. Look at James Watt. He discovered half of thermodynamics as an instrument maker. He applied his knowledge to create steam engines. That is what the elites should be doing. To some degree it happens in Silicon Valley. But politics and corporate credentials cuts off people with high barriers to entry and is funded with fiat.

[@slop123456789]

Bitcoin fixes this

[@Ikbeneengeit]

I googled it and got a bunch of conspiracy theory websites. Please state an example of how lowering the interest rate benefits specifically the richest in society.

[@slop123456789]

@@Ikbeneengeit Artificially low interest rates primarily benefit the wealthiest in society through a number of means. Firstly, they can easily access cheap borrowing, enabling them to fund substantial investments and expand their wealth. Secondly, as asset values rise due to increased demand, the wealthy, who often hold significant investments in scarce assets like real estate and stocks, see their wealth grow further. Thirdly, they can refinance high-interest loans at lower rates, reducing expenses and freeing up capital for more investments.

[@lepetitvapophile5054]

'pioneer in the science of predicting... ' : man, Asimov decribed this decades ago, psycho history, and insurance companies and share traders are using this (complex systems/non liners systyems) since the 50's. I appreciate the talk though, (been waiting for his kind of conscience to emerge and it is reassuring to 'not feel I may be mad') but it is faint and weak in its conclusions.

[@HomesteadRanger]

What to do about collapse @homestead ranger

[@jasminealixandranorth]

Abridged version? :)

[@bwryuun]

Perhaps trade stuff for stuff until the monetary system adjusts?

[@Rev-di1vl]

time for the pitchforks

[@alfred-vz8ti]

cliodynamics rests on the notion that h. sap. has underlying principles of action, maybe so, and we can use them to shape society. nope. the drivers of human society may well be simple, but generally not responsive to logic, or justice, or even self-preservation.

[@polybian_bicycle]

There is a human nature that is determined by our biology. Becauae of this shared human nature, humans tend on a societal level react in recurring ways. The reactions are not exactly the same, because culture also influences things, but nevertheless you can deduce predictable actions from this. It is just that we have denied this reality and have been living under the dogma of tabula rasa.

[@johnmitchell8925]

Gonna be really interesting to see what all the new immigration to the United States does to the working class

[@kirstinstrand6292]

We need immigrants; wages are too low for inflation increasing. Corporate America is trying to stay alive on the backs of their workers. 😢

[@subcitizen2012]

We need more immigrants for our capitalism to grow so we can revenue out of debt. 60 million willing immigrants worldwide, and no reason for them not to come except for racism and xenophobia. Barring their entry is part of the reason the foot of our future is getting shot off. Or we can keep devolving into a nationalist diet fascism that blames other ethnicities and culture for our problems.

[@dogukan127]

US immigration has a strategy to it like it or not - as long as the US manages to succesfully "integrate" immigrants succesfully it is what keeps the American hegemony sustainable. Otherwise, USA would have been on demographic decline like rest of Europe and Asia with a lot of older people and few young workers

[@ianpotter2942]

​@@kirstinstrand6292 immigrantion to the US encourages population and society depletion of the nations of emmigration. the people lose out except those exploiting all this for profit and power. not a good policy

[@teenageapocalypseusa5368]

With AI handling all of the service jobs we won’t have much of a need for unskilled voters any more. Could be a tricky situation as we may have to go back to importing doctors and lawyers.

[@garyjohnson1466]

Interesting discussion

[@willardchi2571]

Be nice if I could hear it.

[@rsmith4339]

Shame the recording level was so off it was unintelligable .

[@anthonymorris5084]

Societal collapse? Maybe do a video on fearmongering and hyperbole.

[@contiman1]

Everything traditionally revolves around the distribution of capital, the availability of public goods and opportunities for enrichment for the general population....heh..the French loved their king Louis very much..and when he started doing everything wrong...he was chopped into fine minced beef. .and fed to stray dogs...

[@denverbrown8904]

The host is one of those people who is more worried about how he wishes the universe works than about the truth. His insistence on adding positive spin to everything doesn't add anything meaningful to the discussion...

[@Adnancorner]

How is wealth pump was opened ? in 1971 ? closing gold window going on a printing press to print all the money in the world. That's how the Money sucking pump was switched on.

[@dion6146]

Inserection. The misuse of that term for a riot by the interviewer detracted from this discussion. Social democratic systems hurt people far more than other systems. Where has that system succeeded in helping advanced economies improve.

[@apersonlikeanyother6895]

48:50 We no longer need elites in the sense he means. His perspective is good but limited by his presuppositions.

[@bwryuun]

Almost got to some actual solutions! Here come the pitchforks! Since these 1% aren’t actually changing anything… how do we middle class and other classes do it? Perhaps trade stuff for stuff until the monetary system adjusts?

[@casteretpollux]

Ally with the working classes and expropriation.

[@deborahdean8867]

How about we REPEAL the federal income tax AMENDMENT and the federal reserve act? Its access to more money, other people's money, that they use to effect their interests and which causes greed and bribery.

[@ShivMathur]

Last year I wrote a book titled “Social Pandemic” - A Terminally ill Modern Society