The Biggest Mistake That Created America's Housing Crisis

[@kevinmilligan9555]

Joe, @ the 13:02 minute mark you touch on supersized homes, compared to shrinking families. We have a terrible cycle of wanting more and bigger dwellings, but not enough income to afford the bigger home and the children to fill the bedrooms. Perhaps expectations on what a house is, or what home can be, needs to be reimagined? There is going to be a building boom in NC and California over the next few years, and I wonder if they will re-think housing this time around.

[@Manausa]

Those are great points @kevinmilligan9555, I think the positive solution requires a nationalized solution. Right now, all local communities are trying to figure this out on their own. If we could create a "Housing Czar" of some sort, the Federal Government could provide assistance and guidance (and funding) so that communities can start planning housing out, not just letting the private sector carry the load. The reason why Texas cities are doing better than most is that they have better land-use policies, we should be paying attention to Austin, TX and copying their approach.

[@alicewade6215]

@Manausa, at the 13:37 time stamp you said: "It's like trying to solve world hunger by making bigger plates instead of more food." Perfect analogy.

[@Manausa]

Thanks for the feedback @alicewade6215, I'm glad you liked it!

[@TheZeedler]

Let's go, Joe!! I love this show!!!

[@Manausa]

Thanks @TheZeedler, it's great to hear from you again.

[@MaryJones-mm7qk]

I had never seen the statistic that home values have grown 6x faster than wages since 1980. Wow!

[@Manausa]

That's a great point @MaryJones-mm7qk, I had not seen it either until I read the USC report. It's no wonder we're in a home affordability crisis.

[@johndefalque5061]

Families are shrinking while houses and cars are growing!

[@Manausa]

so true @johndefalque5061

[@nkchenjx]

Insurance and property tax hurting people too at rocking high prices than people giving up buying.

[@Manausa]

That's a great point @nkchenjx, I believe nationally they have risen 51% since pre-pandemic.

[@zachurich5046]

People under 40 aren't looking for bigger houses... they're looking for any house that's not 300k and needing an additional 100k in repairs immediately to make the house safe to live in.

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your views @zachurich5046, it's more confirmation that what we have been building has not been what we have been needing.

[@user-ms3ko5gn8e]

I bought in 2007 then sold on 2015 to care for my widow mom, before the huge pay boom of 2021.Now we can't afford to buy that home back even if we wanted to. That house has more than doubled sense we sold. My husband also had more work in 2007 than he did/does now. So I'm assuming this crash will be much worse when it does finally happen. I think we are in the beginning part. High inflation and stagnant wages will not turn out well. Either prices fall or we will have unprecedented amount of homelessness.

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your experience @user-ms3ko5gn8e, and there are a lot of people in your situation. Unfortunately, the under-building for the past 20 years is leaving supply as low as demand, so prices are protected unless we have a huge economic recession. And more unfortunately, you are right about homelessness, it is growing for the first time in a long time.

[@kajohnson1261]

@manausa, it seems like more and more analysts are jumping on the supply side shortage. I wonder if the new President will get on board with this.

[@Manausa]

Me too @kajohnson1261, fingers crossed 😀

[@CuriousObserver-0152]

@@Manausa and me as well

[@CuriousObserver-0152]

This has to be the worst time ever to be a first time homebuyer. How can they afford to get into the market.

[@Manausa]

@CuriousObserver-0152, it's the worst I've seen in my 34 years in the business. When I started, rates were at 9.5%, but affordability was still much better.

[@GenerationX1984]

The only people I know who own more than one house are rich people and baby boomers. There's a "housing shortage" because too many jerks own more than one house.

[@Manausa]

I appreciate your frustration @GenerationX1984, but you're talking about tens or hundreds of thousands of homes at most, and the uber-rich have been around during good times and bad (meaning their numbers are expected in the home count). The federal government spent the past 20 years altering loan programs that have discriminated against the young and the marginal credit buyers, removing a portion of the market that builders used to provide. 20 years of not building starter homes leaves Millennial and GenX buyers in a bad place, unless you are very wealthy.

[@Manausa]

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[@shanedavison7473]

Actually the home builders have created a market that is great for profitability. They have intentionally underbuilt to be able to sell houses at an inflated profit. It's funny that you say the experts got it wrong when they actually got exactly what they wanted.

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your opinion @shanedavison7473. Are you saying there is a cabal amongst the 300,000+ homebuilders in America, where they all have agreed to build fewer homes? I find that hard to believe (though you're not the first to comment on this). I think it's more due to inflation. Builders can only build what the top 1/3rd need, so we see very-high appreciation for those in the bottom 2/3rds. It's a serious problem that needs tackling fast.

[@Kirk-oj6qm]

They are not done, the correction is coming. It's a correction, houses are generally over-valued at least 40%, and with buyers out of the market, it will correct. Businesses that were buying all the homes, have loan maturity problems in 2025, the math for rental business doesn't survive the loan maturity adjustment. All you need, is another 6-14 months of patience.? Bidding wars info on this video, is only accurate geographically, and in higher end home.s This video, is borderline mis-information in my summation. I would advise you to check out reventure content, the info there is much less biased towards a reliance on the industry. Do not trust data from a anyone associated with the NAR, its washed.

[@Manausa]

Thanks for the feedback @Kirk-oj6qm, I guess this is the first video of mine you have seen. I produce market reports each week from numerous sources, from FRED data to Zillow to Redfin, NAR, NAHB, ICE, etc. This is just one. Most analysts and sources agree that prices are protected by the serious undersupply of homes. Builders can only produce at the upper levels, so we're still seeing rapid appreciation at the lower price points. The home affordability crisis is far worse than 2008, and everybody thinks prices will crash. The only way I see prices crash is if the economy crashes and millions lose their jobs. In 2008, there were 4M+ homes for sale, today, 1.1M. The supply is so low that it will require an external impetus to bring down prices. Of course, that won't be true in every market, as real estate is local, but it will remain true for the US housing market overall. Thanks for commenting.

[@manleynelson9419]

Say you're a liberal without saying you're a liberal.

[@Manausa]

Funniest comment ever @manleynelson9419

[@manleynelson9419]

You're getting your information from USC in the Urban Land Institute which have an agenda

[@Manausa]

@manleynelson9419, everybody has an agenda, that's why I do reports from as many different sources as I have time to review.

[@manleynelson9419]

Joe you normally just repeat statistics and things like that which you know are all over the place but I appreciate it but

[@Manausa]

@manleynelson9419, that's kind of the point. I'm seeking solutions, I'm looking everywhere. You have to admit there are numerous intersections (from this video and others) that are showing the path out of this mess.

[@manleynelson9419]

Climate change is not why Los Angeles burned. Holy crap.

[@Manausa]

That's an interesting statement @manleynelson9419, why did LA burn?

[@manleynelson9419]

Policy makers are causing more regulations and cost at every level Land is the real issue. You're oversimplyfying, regurgitating and prognosticating. It is nauseating.

[@Manausa]

@manleynelson9419, didn't you already say this?

[@manleynelson9419]

Policy makers are causing more regulations and cost at every level Land is the real issue. You're oversimplyfying, regurgitating and prognosticating. It is nauseating.

[@Manausa]

@manleynelson9419, and what are you doing?