Wagner Group Embraer EMB-135BJ RA 02795

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#blancolirio #flyingeyes #aviationsafety #ntsb

[@blancolirio]

More info by Denys that strongly supports a missile strike: kzbin.info/www/bejne/bnmVd3qrmZhqiLM

[@kristinwinter5006]

You Ruskie trolls never sleep!@@dietervolke7811

[@mcloutier5]

Very thorough report by Denys.

[@dietervolke7811]

However, there was no direct confirmation that Prigozhin, who was known to take numerous security precautions, was dead. A second jet belonging to him, which was also in flight, turned around midair after the incident and later landed at Ostafyevo airport near Moscow. Chatham House Russia analyst Keir Giles said: “It is known that multiple individuals have changed their name to Yevgeny Prigozhin, as part of his efforts to obfuscate his travels. So until we know for certain that it’s the right Prigozhin, let’s not be surprised if he pops up shortly in a new video from Africa.”

[@Mywhtjp]

No explosions were reported. Probably straffed by machine guns.. quieter but they accomplished their goal. Sadly.. Just watched the first part of that video.. He's got nothing on you as far as his knowledge of airplanes and your resource of identifying them..

[@mcloutier5]

Everything russian is maybe/maybe not. But Denys’ report is very thorough.

[@2011blueman]

We know it wasn't an accident. I'm surprised anyone was willing to pilot an airplane with him on it, and anyone else was willing to be on board.

[@zlm001]

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. They may have been Wagner pilots though.

[@tinytattoomike7943]

💯

[@HokieJuju]

Yeah it seems a little odd that there were 3 pilots on board but from what I’ve seen, they were all Wagner pilots.

[@psikogeek]

"This is your captain speaking. Please welcome our VIP passengers, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Mohamed Atta, and D. B. Cooper. Enjoy your flight, everyone."

[@mcnultyssobercompanion6372]

Seriously. I'm floored that he was flying into Russia, and apparently fairly often, from what I read this afternoon. I mean, even if he wasn't on that plane, _someone_ high enough to launch missiles clearly thought he was. If he's alive, I'd suggest he takes trains from now on. Not that I have any love for the man. Slava Ukraine.

[@tubefr71]

When I first heard the news, my immediate reaction was “I want to hear Blancolirio’s analysis on it”. So as always, thank you!

[@aviatorel32]

Putin promised Prigozhin that he won’t be prosecuted, and he kept his word.

[@jonathanmvkhai]

A man of his word.

[@fighterjetsteve]

Vlad said prosecuted...... he just didn't mention assassination.🤔🤔

[@christopherstewart7707]

Prigozhin should have stipulated that he get immunity from not only legal prosecution but immunity from missle strikes. It always pays to get the best lawyer…

[@mcahill135]

Well, in a sense he was prosecuted. Not in a court of law, but, at 33,000 ft

[@raymondclark1785]

Shows putler was willing to use Freindly fire on 9 others to get his revenge

[@Gregorius421]

Worth noting that ADSB data was lost at FL280, not when the aircraft impacted the ground. Circuits were severed while flying.

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

Of course it was. It exploded in the air. Wladimir knows his business.

[@dougall1687]

FR24 over on facebook gave a more detailed analysis of the vertical speeds recorded by various receivers, and there seem to be 2, maybe 3, final data points with a very rapid descent rate (c. 7,000 ft/min). So the initial event doesn't appear to have completely disabled the flight systems.

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

@@dougall1687 Meybae some vigilantes climbed onto the wings and tried to stitch them together but their cheap russian strings did not hold up.

[@dougall1687]

@@wolfgangpreier9160 I think the point is that if the ADS-B was still functioning during the initial parts of the descent, then the avionics were energized at this point (either by battery or engines) and so both CVR and FDR records should be available covering the event itself and early consequences. Although assuredly this will not be made public.

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

@@dougall1687 Where did they shoot it down? Over Russia. Who has the best electronic warfare in their own country? Russia. Questions about ADSB make simply no sense in this case. I was always wondering why the russians even allow ADSB signals in and out of their land. But who knows what a russian thinks?

[@nicklovell5872]

Thank you Juan. Your assessments are always clear clear and informative and easy for the layperson to understand.

[@purplesprigs]

Please, everyone, lay off the conspiracy Kool Aid. He is dead. Also, JFK was not killed by the Keebler elves and I am not D.B. Cooper...or am I?

[@Blxz]

What a truly unlucky turn of events. Could have happened to anyone. Anyone flying over Russian airspace who also happened to carry a passenger that had acted against the Russian head of state, that is.

[@rabidbigdog]

Yes indeed. MH17 springs to mind.

[@anthonymaddison9588]

Treason is punishable by death in many countries including the USA.

[@Markle2k]

There were a lot of VVS personnel who would not mind making a “mistake” like his guys did when they shot down the Il-22M. Poetic how they descended in much the same way.

[@Brad2117]

Well said. I almost missed the second paragraph lol

[@fuzzy1dk]

not only against the head of state, afaiu he was running around in Africa because GRU wanted to replace the Wagner group there with their own people, so they also wanted to get rid of him

[@jamesm3471]

The only reason this Legacy jet crashed is because Yevgeny Prigozhin couldn’t fit out its window. In all seriousness though, my heart goes out for its crew.

[@cheddar2648]

_one cannot make an omelet without cracking a few eggs_ --The New York Times

[@bluejew6969]

The crew were likely Wagner pilots so I wouldn’t feel too bad for them

[@TechGorilla1987]

@2:57 - "Ass over teakettle." Now THERE is a term I have not heard in a while. Mum used to say that all the time. Good memories.

[@rkoczewski1]

It was not a missile It was not a bomb It was not a crash It was a “special military landing”

[@kbg990]

Special Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly

[@james_chatman]

😆😆😆 I shouldn't but these people have actively made the world a worse place. Won't be missed.

[@hb1338]

@@user-jh4xk3ml1q Incorrect . Putin usually waits for the initial palaver to die down before acting, maybe because he thinks revenge is best served cold, maybe to lull the victim into a lower state of alertness.

[@wngimageanddesign9546]

LMAO!

[@brucedickson6019]

10.0

[@guyver268]

Just because his Prigozhin's name was on the passenger manifest doesn't necessarily mean he was actually on board. I can think of good reasons he'd like everyone to believe he was.

[@navinstrument8353]

Interesting perspective

[@TheWilferch]

That was my thinking too at first when all that was reported was that his "name" was on the list.....but his name and the names of some other high ranking Wagner people were on the confirmed body count / naming list issued by the crash authorities. That all said...yes, it's a report from Russia, so maybe not truthful overall given the history.

[@gmcjetpilot]

You don't think Putin former KGB was NOT able to positively ID Prigozhin was on plane (eyes on him)? It was a missile as crash scene pictures leaked out of plane (wreckage) is full of small shrapnel holes. Why shoot plane down? So when Prigozhin's is never seen again will you agree he is dead, or will you say this is a coverup so he can "go on the lam". Prigozhin's was just in Africa with his Wagner murdering psycho mercenaries killing woman and children. He was not hiding. Reports say he was one of the dead, Be skeptical but don't be ridiculous. These "hits" (murders) are normal for Putin. Anyone who criticizes him or opposes him ends up in jail, dead or both. Not to judge but to be clear we do it in America. Jeffery Epstein, a string of deaths around Clintons... this kind of thing happens...by evil people.

[@Transilvanian90]

Possible, but that's just speculative. Until we have evidence of anything, it's presumed he was there and died.

[@dong4617]

I'm sure the FSB knew who was aboard before they shot it down.

[@adrianinglis5922]

It was only a matter of time but I thought he would have fallen from a 6th storey window like so many others.

[@j2simpso]

For a leader like him, the number of stories he has to fall from increase greatly.

[@Dave-ei7kk]

I think this is a case of killing 7 birds with one stone. (Plus the flight crew who were probably incidental casualties).

[@montepickett3]

Yes I thought he would catch "3rd floor window cancer"

[@BoMcGillacutty]

Clearly mass suicide.

[@Relkond]

I’d figured on an accident - something that could be plausibly denied. This seems quite risky. If there’s shrapnel holes in the aircraft, that’s going to give credence to the idea of a shoot-down, which can serve as justification for Wagner to pull some dumb $#!%

[@tao5664]

Juan, I love how as an American you kept a straight face when you said "and we're never going to get the straight story as this happened over in Russia" Greetings from Australia

[@hobnob4224]

Yep, same as in the good ole US of A. Probably hit by a magic bullet.

[@JimMork]

When did we get a straight story about the invasion of Iraq. Let's not get too haughty here.

[@andrewf2]

The last guy who crossed Putin committed suicide by shooting himself in the head. Twice.

[@robertstennett7566]

According to the Russian investigating team it was a hand grenade that exploded in the interior of the plane.

[@alanaldpal950]

Well, like so many other Russian Big Wigs, Prigozhin died from a great fall…. Much higher than the usual apartment window

[@badmonkey2222]

It's actually quite comforting to know that he most likely had the whole way down to think about the atrocities he committed in Ukraine. Good riddance.

[@jhgming]

@@badmonkey2222He probably wasn't even thinking about that. He might have already been dead in the air, or he might have been thinking about and hoping for Putin's downfall, we'll never know

[@bullfrogger1208]

Well, at least you don't call bullets to the back of the head "suicide".

[@Blxz]

The higher you reach the greater the fall. Never more true than now.

[@c1ph3rpunk]

@@jhgmingwas he even alive when boarding.

[@Hans_R._Wahl]

Thank you very much for picking this up - and for the recommendation to Denys!

[@kevinmansker8649]

In various screenshots you can see the right wing and most of the empennage is missing from the fuselage

[@HokieJuju]

I was thinking it looked like one of the wings was missing but it was hard to tell in the video.

[@c1ph3rpunk]

Nyet. These aren’t the wings you’re looking for. It took off that way, it wasn’t me.

[@germansnowman]

There is a second video that shows it quite clearly.

[@pistonburner6448]

GRU placed the explosive charge into the Embraer's wing-mounted main landing gear enclosure. Boom -> wing comes off.

[@denninosyos]

The initial smoke plume looks like it comes from aft-right. I think an AA missile hit it from aft- right and tore the tail and right wing off. If it was an internal explosion in the cabin I'd think that the cabin would've been a bit more torn up and right wing still attached or in proximity of the falling main fuselage.

[@MrMonoTracer]

Professional pilot here: Experience shows that it is very difficult to open a window of a jet aircraft inflight, even harder for a person to fall out of it. However, this problem can be solved when the window itself, with the airframe attached to it, falls out of the sky - with the unlucky person on board…

[@RockandRollWoman]

😂😂😂

[@Hans_R._Wahl]

Indeed.

[@RockandRollWoman]

You should have far more 👍👍👍. No one else has been able to reconcile this "accident" with the storied history of other Putin critics and their window-related accidents. I laugh every time I contemplate your elegant solution. 👍👌🤣🤣🤣

[@MrMonoTracer]

@@RockandRollWoman Thank you😀👍!

[@gcrauwels941]

Someone showed some pictures of the tail section separated from the main impact and a section of wing consistent with SAM damage. I knew it was coming, just didn't know when. What he was doing still in Russia is baffling.

[@cockatoo010]

Right. The continuous rod warhead of a 58E6 missile (fired by a Pantsir) is designed to cut trough the target after detonation. Although some in the comments are claiming that the pictures of the wreckage show small holes peppered trough some surfaces, which would be more consistent with a blast fragmentation warhead from something like a 9M317 from a Buk (small holes were peppered throughout the cockpit of MH17, for example) or the missiles from S300

[@gcrauwels941]

@@cockatoo010 Interesting. Would be consistent with large scale control surface failure.

[@djinn666]

Anyone dumb enough to start a failed coup against Putin's inner circle is dumb enough to stay in Russia afterwards.

[@ChrisRaynorMD]

I was waiting to see what your assessment was on this. Thanks for the update!

[@keithrosenberg5486]

I saw a photo that seemed to show shrapnel holes in a partly intact piece of the aircraft.

[@cee5050]

That white "cloud" at 4:50 reminded me of the same kind of cloud when they shot down the Chinese balloon.

[@NFlight]

Wing missing, engine and tail gone. Missile.

[@jamescollier3]

first and only camera footage!

[@JoeKyser]

​@jamescollier3 yeah true, we are making assumptions here. No doubt that plane was blown down. We just dont know if this is part of a true story

[@timb8095]

Pentagon are now saying, not missile

[@richardlincoln8438]

Special military intervention.

[@NFlight]

@@timb8095 Heard that too.. Vlad says it was Wine Crate Bomb that was loaded last minute. The FA messaged her family about "an unexpected delay". We'll never really know.

[@Maynardtkrebs]

1:04, large white object above falling Embraer is not falling. Appears to be another aircraft. Embraer is missing one wing and tail plane. Jet noise doesn't'' sound as if rotating, so I'm thinking it's a shoot down.

[@jamesonpace726]

We all knew this was coming, surprised it took so long. Unless Prigozhin's not actually dead....

[@SalisburySnake]

Or was already dead? Seems odd to do it in such a way that outsiders can't confirm it was really him.

[@JimMork]

Maybe he's sneaking off to Argentina.

[@doublebass1985]

its missing a wing, plus the way it falls is indicative of a loss of wing the way it steeply dives down and then kinda flutters and then dives again.

[@Aviation1400]

There’s another angle of the crash that shows the legacy in what appears to be missing it’s left wing and at least both horizontal stabilizers

[@manofcultura]

The fact it’s not breaking up. I would surmise it’s a MANPAD that hit it. An A2A or SAM would do enough to shred a civilian craft of that size.

[@runrau9275]

Yes, also still photo's of the stabilizers a few miles away in a field.

[@lonnywilcox445]

@@manofcultura 28,000 feet would be at the high end of effective MANPAD range. Most of the A2A missiles have relatively small warheads, just enough to get the fragmentation portion up to 6,000fps. It will blow chunks off a plane but not likely to shred it a la Top Gun. My guess is this was an IR seeker A2A missile. Why IR? Because even a "civilian" plane used by someone who runs a mercenary group is going to have a radar warning receiver in it. With an IR missile the attacking plane wouldn't have even had to turn on the radar to get an IR lock. They wouldn't have known they were being hunted until the plane was falling out of the sky.

[@badmonkey2222]

​@@manofculturamanpads can't reach 25000 ft it was either a BUK or an S-400

[@vstaritz]

@@manofcultura Not really actually. It comes down to some level of luck but the Ukrainian 737 that was shot down by Iranian AA over Tehran couple years ago was airborne for quite a while before it eventually hit the ground. It was directed where it eventually crashed. It is a much bigger craft but it was a static SAM that did it. A Tor or Buk afair.

[@hernanhernandez3861]

"Truth is the first casualty of war..." great quote.

[@Hans_R._Wahl]

Yes!

[@cozysouth]

Accidentally flew through the path of a missile. Never guessed that was going to happen.

[@mikemontagne2703]

Inadvertently flew into the same bowtye shaped pre-fragmented maelstrom that makes up the warhead of a Buk 9M38(?)....

[@Don.Challenger]

Yes, well who hopes to fall out a window, off a balcony, down an elevator shaft, slip fall down the stairway - sadly this venture was merely from greater altitude and the armored vests would only expedite their fall from greatness (as it were). Mr Putin strikes from afar; however, that killer is no godlike Apollo.

[@oldschoolman1444]

Poor airplane!

[@MichaelOfRohan]

Lol we knew he was dead the moment he opened his mouth against russia.

[@kamakaziozzie3038]

Classic Hillary body count

[@Saabjock]

I worked on the Legacy 600 model several years ago. They don't just fall out of the sky in that fashion. There is absolutely zero forward component in that video. While extremely blurry, it looks like most of the empennage is missing which would explain the freefall. That aircraft either took a missle in the aft section or some type of explosive went off in either the aft baggage or in the hell hole.

[@phillee2814]

Metal on the external panels that survived the post-execution fire all had the edges bent inwards, so the penetration was outside. From chef to roast is unsurprising, exactly 2 weeks after the Wagner mutiny.

[@robertstennett7566]

@@phillee2814 According to the Russian investigating team it was a hand grenade that exploded in the interior of the plane.

[@phillee2814]

@@robertstennett7566 And according to the fox, it was somebody unknown who raided the chicken coop!😂🤣😂🤣

[@LarsLarsen77]

That's what happens when your weight and balance is radically altered by a missile/bomb.

[@hb1338]

Most Russian military explosions are started by somebody smoking in the wrong place.

[@nickwind2584]

As far as unsolved mysteries of Russians falling out of windows goes, I say Prigozhin wins the world record for highest altitude. 😂

[@skayt35]

Putin fled a largely unprotected Moscow during the Wagner mutiny, and afterwards had to publicly shake hands with Prygoshin, in Belarus, outside Russia. Putin was ridiculed by the whole world, including the Ukraine, and even the Russian TV propagandists had trouble portraying this as strength. It was widely considered as the deepest humuliation for him since he took office as the head of Russia. The record downfall of Prygoshin was the minimum which Putin could dish him.

[@Confucius_Says...]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@ctwalston1565]

Yup

[@bruhdabones]

@@skayt35you know what they say, the bigger they are the harder they fall 😂

[@orchidorio]

Prigozhin was PUSHED out the window!!!!!

[@ugiswrong]

RIP Prigozhin, you were an excellent adversary, very entertaining

[@stevekerr4538]

We could coin a new phrase for this incident being a ‘crash of convenience’ for a certain leader

[@maxmoo3275]

This does NOT benefit Putin.

[@nathandanner4030]

Ron Brown comes to mind.

[@uwekonnigsstaddt524]

@@maxmoo3275Ron Brown benefited Clinton

[@moshet842]

@@maxmoo3275 How do you figure?

[@Mentaculus42]

@@maxmoo3275 Warnings to the elite in Vlad Land!!

[@danroll81]

I was surprised a few weeks back to see footage of him disembarking a Robinson 44 helicopter. He sure was confident enough to fly anything!

[@EdwardKilner]

I’ve been a serious amateur photographer since 1971. How come I never seem to point my camera into the sky and catch an initial explosion on an aircraft carrying an infamous person? I am very sorry for the loss of the 3 crew members. Another war crime, I’m sure.

[@jamesphillips2285]

Cellphones are often poorer cameras; but are easier to have on-hand.

[@badmonkey2222]

War crime? What the ones he committed? This guy was a mass murderer of children an elderly people his people killed Ukrainian pows with a sledgehammer, there's nobody going to miss that thug the world is a much better place without this monster. And what's actually quite comforting is the fact that it looks like he had that whole way down to think about the atrocities he committed and Ukraine before impact. Good riddance.

[@notreallyme425]

What a coincidence!!!

[@bigd4366]

They probably heard the explosion and got out their cell phone.

[@jerseyshoredroneservices225]

Because as hard as you try, you cant be in as many places as all the other people with cameras. Dont think of this video as being captures by a person, it was captured by the network of people across the world. Also, I suspect that you haven't been shooting in a target rich environment such as a war zone.

[@davidpowell3347]

something to remember is that when a breakup or explosion at great distance and/or altitude occurs there is a delay of on the order of a couple seconds or more between when something wrong first can be seen and when the initial sounds from the explosion are heard by a ground observer. There is a formula for determining the distance from the observer if the exact time of the delay is known. The same thing as trying to determine the distance from a lightening discharge to an observer who compares the time of the visible flash to the resultant "thunder" (lightening discharges might occur over a longer time than an "instant" and can have great length causing the initial sound to come from more than one point of direction towards the observer and have some duration) I would think an out of control falling metal aircraft would make a great deal of aerodynamic noise different than normal flight noise more or less all the way from the precipitating incident crippling it to the ground impact

[@zambia61]

Really enjoy your channel. Thank you for your hard work in providing excellent factual content.

[@Tony_Airlines]

The entire left wing and both horizontal/vertical stabilizers are gone with engines still attached. There is a second bystander video where, if paused just before the aircraft disappears below the treeline, the bystanders got a top-down view of the crippled aircraft and you can make out the right wing, fuselage and engines.

[@crushingvanessa3277]

Glad to see your take on this. You explained a lot looking at this from a normal accident view. Interesting to is that they identified him so quickly. Or is that a normal amount of time.

[@russlehman2070]

It appears that another enemy of Putin has met with an unfortunate accident. Funny how that keeps happening.

[@badmonkey2222]

Keeps happening? It's been happening for 20 years, any political rival of Putler either falls out of window gets poisoned to death or is in jail or breaking rocks in Siberia, or in this case eating a surface-to-air missile for lunch. Nothing surprising at all. It actually surprises me though that he got to him before the Ukrainians did because they wanted him more than they wanted Pootin for what he did and Ukraine and the murdering of Ukrainian civilians and pows.

[@larryfisher7056]

Don't forget that his organization was supposedly involved of cheating Hillary out her "turn".....

[@alexanderordinary2110]

Yup, in russia death by "putinitus" is very common....

[@vonfragesq7145]

Looks like Putin took a page out of the Clinton playbook.

[@wreckum56]

Sounds like a Hillary deal.

[@sheldonsmith5662]

There were two Wagner jets in the air. RA-02748, a Legacy 650 was ahead this jet, RA-02795, a Legacy 600. Is it possible that Prigozhin was on the other Wagner jet?

[@perkinscurry8665]

The fact that his name was on the manifest doesn't necessarily mean he was on the aircraft, just that someone wants us to think so. I think authorities were a little to forthright with this information for me to believe it without some skepticism. Wouldn't surprise me if he was killed in a basement somewhere and his body dissolved in acid and that his name was put on the manifest as a cover.

[@mcnultyssobercompanion6372]

I mean, I wouldn't put anything past Russia, but you'd have to get to Pregozhin first. My guess is, particularly since the failed coup, he was surrounded around the clock by a small army of well-paid mercenaries armed to the teeth. Why send in a commando squad to do all that fighting when you can just remotely shoot his plane out of the sky? Anything's possible, but this arrogant stooge had apparently been in and out of Russia several times the past few months. Russia appears to have been ready this time. I won't celebrate the violence, but I won't mourn this foul man. I say good riddance. I mourn every Ukrainian civilian who's been murdered as well as every brave Ukrainian fighter who's fallen. Slava Ukraine.

[@richardpark3054]

Or maybe he's already enjoying champagne and ouerduerve in Argentina. He was/is a powerful & savvy mercenary with decades of experience. Is it beyond belief that he's arranged to be 'killed' and, therefore, disappear?

[@jasoncarswell7458]

If the Russians tell you it is noon, assume it's actually midnight.

[@Pentium100MHz]

@@richardpark3054 No, it isn't. He could have easily got a body double to fly in that plane with his passport. I'm sure the bodies in the ground are quite mangled by the crash and a possible fire, that identification may take a while. But, he was on the passenger list and maybe his passport was found in the wreck. Of course, if he was not on the plane, then he will be really quiet for a while, plotting.

[@OceanSwimmer]

​@@Pentium100MHz Spooky thought! Putin won't sleep easy until DNA confirmation is made, if possible.

[@REB4444]

No way they would know this quick that there were 10 dead bodies. When a plane crashes like this, there are body parts everywhere. Plus they were burnt also, so it would take days to determine how many bodies there are. This plane was clearly brought down from how it was coming down. For the life of me I can't understand how the Wagner guy thought it would end-up any other way after he rebelled. He was a dead man walking the minute he made that decision.

[@robertstennett7566]

They would have had to file a flight plan which would include the passenger on board.

[@fungalcoffee]

Honestly at this point i wouldn't call it an accident. I guess all Wagner's leaders falling out of the same window would be too obvious for the Russians

[@Gregorius421]

Nothing is too obvious for russians, but there wasn't a window big enough. /s

[@NotAnonymousNo80014]

Try starting a private army in the US, than turn on the establishment. You won't even get to your plane and it will be all over the news as a warning to others.

[@aleclitvinov]

i think a section of a wing is missing, and the trail we see is not smoke, it's fuel from a ruptured tank.

[@ElectroAtletico]

Dang, he didn't get pushed out of building, he got BLOWN UP!!

[@davied5496]

Yeah, I’d be good to have that that flight if you were talking about between the 737 in the Embro AFB do that one in the future if you can

[@donmoore7785]

Arse over teakettle is a favorite expression of my dad's.

[@vadim7590]

to translate the lady filming, aside from cursing, she does say it was shot down.

[@id10t98]

That wasnt a plane crash. That was debris falling from a plane that blew up.

[@armandozahariade1171]

Look carefully at the plane in the movie, it doesn't seem to be in the Embraer Legacy 600. This one in the clip seems to have the engines under the wings. Maybe I'm wrong.

[@Deltarious]

Photographs of the wreckage *clearly* show the wreck displays perforations that can more or less only be from the shrapnel created by the detonation of a missile, they're very distinctive and pepper at least one side of the aircraft

[@idanceforpennies281]

Yeah. Everyone is talking about a SAM.

[@FPVMystique]

I'd expect damage more congruent with the use of a continuous-rod (CR) missile rather than a peppering.

[@idanceforpennies281]

What ??? @@FPVMystique

[@jamescraig4479]

​@@idanceforpennies281A continuous rod warhead that upon detonation, forms an expanding ring that slices through airframes...

[@badmonkey2222]

There's also video of what's left of him, well what's left of his upper half at least.

[@tecnaman9097]

The only thing we know for sure is that Girkin didn't pull the trigger this time. So is this the end of Wagner now? As Mr Churchill said of Russia "It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma".

[@ricklowers8873]

Juan, at the point where you paused the video; it appears the aircraft is falling tail first at that point. “Tumbling” is about all you can say for how it came out of the sky.

[@hewhohasnoidentity4377]

Actually I like JB description of "ass over tea kettle."

[@OOpSjm]

It lost the tail and started tumbling.

[@dfxl6587]

Juan, Is that smoke trail against the blue sky at the beginning of the video typical of a missile or rocket attack on an aircraft? Here in Germany they showed slow motion zoomed in views which seem to show the tail and one wing missing.

[@christopherrobinson7541]

The smoke is the proximity fuse detonating.

[@tadecker82]

Considering it's owned by Wagner, this was OBVIOUSLY not an "accident". I guess it's safe to say that the leadership of Wagner has been "removed".

[@richardpark3054]

"Don't count your chickens before they're hatched."

[@jasoncarswell7458]

They're counting on people who think it's "safe to say".

[@jacksos101]

A private jet and a few lives is a pretty cheap price to pay to enjoy a wealthy retirement sipping cocktails by the beach someplace far, far away...

[@JimMork]

Does someone in Wagner now get a promotion? Someone more docile?

[@kittonsmitton]

Thanks he was on the passenger log some say he was absent.

[@jasoncarswell7458]

I am still unconvinced that Prigozhin would be so stupid as to put both himself and his XO on the same aircraft... and then put both their names on the passenger manifest. I'll believe it when I see the bodies.

[@kevinmadore1794]

Amen. Why would a guy of his stature fly over the heart of the Russian Federation in a jet registered to his company knowing full well what Putin does to his enemies? It makes zero sense.

[@truracer20]

It's the new USSR, nothing can be believed from them.

[@feelincrispy7053]

Yep I’m with you. He’s known to have many body doubles as well

[@harveywallbanger3123]

Agreed, it smells like maskirovka. But we'll find out quickly because Wagner won't be able to hide the death of their leaders for long if it's true.

[@mvd4436]

He knew that if the govt wanted him gone, he'd be gone anyway. He violated the terms of his exile and had to go

[@RogerHanks-z2e]

Hi. Thank you for what you do Brother. I have read alot of comments. This aircraft was more than likely shot down by a air to air proximity missle. What most people don't understand is that the missle was more than likely fired at a distance of 30 to 40 miles away. It could be 50 to 60 miles away depending on the missle that was used. The missle type doesn't acutely hit the aircraft but instead it explodes in the proximity of the targeted aircraft also the aircraft isnt taken down by a explosive warhead if you will, but its taken down by small shrapnel from the missle warhead exploding next to the aircraft. Covert operators have been know to use nuts and bolts and other commen materials in these types of missle to cover up thier handy work, but a tell tell sign of foul play is lots of holes throughout the fuselage of said aircraft, not saying it happen to this aircraft? But just saying? Take care. Hawk out!!

[@tedstriker754]

The way it was falling flat like it was, it seems the horizontal tail was gone, And most of the wing is gone. If the tail was intact, it would have probably been nose down like a missile. It was a fuselage in a flat position. That kept it's speed down somewhat as evidenced by intact pieces like an engine, cockpit windows.

[@jordillach3222]

Some photos of the wreckage show what looks like shrapnel dents and perforations on the fuselage which suggests a missile strike. Actually, that bigger cloud of smoke looks very much like a missile blast.

[@robertstennett7566]

According to the Russian investigating team it was a hand grenade that exploded in the interior of the plane.

[@Morpheus187]

That was shot out of the sky planes don’t just drop. It was at 21,000 feet. It should be going forward but it dropped.

[@jtknapp3261]

It looked like it was missing the empennage from what I could see, an in-flight breakup of some type.

[@donwoodward2615]

Yes shot down

[@adamdobrzanski6631]

Def shot down

[@glenmcgillivray4707]

My hypothesis is explosives next to the engine. Remove tail authority, imbalances thrust output, cripples the aircraft. And who would think to look on top of the engine Nacelle. Except anyone expecting potential assassination. Tragic loss of life for Putin's ambitions. Yet not surprising. Suspect Wagner will continue to be a thing regardless.

[@Sshooter444]

they never stall and flat spin?

[@PauldeSwardt]

Shout out to the Brazilian Embraer Legacy 600 - Goto private jet choice for private military leaders!

[@JimMork]

Flawed. Can't outrun ground to air missiles.

[@user-pf5xq3lq8i]

If that is true then the mechanic could have planted something. The way it came down like a lawn dart suggests the wing was blown clean off.

[@marlinweekley51]

The Russian military were ready to film it from probably many angles before they shot out of the sky.

[@haqvor]

They have found parts of the aircraft a few km from the crash site. From what I saw the paint matches the vertical stab and another part that looked like one of the elevators. It remains to be seen if Prigozjin was actually on the aircraft.

[@deniseellenburg649]

Wow! Someone actually caught this crash with a camera! Wild!

[@avflyguy]

Not sure if it has anything to do with anythings, but saw an article (if I recall correctly) by AvWeb that stated these Embraer's were subject to Sanctions, and as such was unable to obtain critical parts. The article also stated that it was common practice (while sanctioned) to take parts of the other 8 aircraft to keep them flying, while one was a 'donor' plane for the remaning fleet.

[@neilwarren5067]

Yea, a missile warning system would have been classed as a critical part in this scenario. Could have made all the difference, damn sanctions!!

[@dski8097]

The puff of white and grey smoke is a signature of a missile proximity detonation. That jet was shot down by a sophisticated surface to air missile.

[@cockatoo010]

doesn't need to be sophisticated. Pretty sure an Igla (Soviet MANPADS) could shoot down a business jet.

[@uwekonnigsstaddt524]

The sound of jet engines can be heard. Perhaps a fighter shot down the jet

[@ericvonp]

Plane was at 25k ft high. That’s to high for that

[@АндрейСтечкин-Васечкин]

@@cockatoo010" Igla" is valid up to 5-6km only,if im not mistaken. It was rather a missile from the "buk",or smth similar.

[@dale2540]

If it was shot down, wouldn't it blow up? Seeing they just took off & full of Fuel.@@uwekonnigsstaddt524 . I see this as something blew up from inside the jet, blowing the tail end off... hard to say.

[@arthurcutting9227]

Did you see the new video of the missing wing from this aircraft? The landing gear is extended and the wing is in fairly reasonable condition considering. What happens if the gear is lowered at cruising speed?

[@sergeyvyatkin]

You are confusing cause with effect.

[@localcrew]

Looks like the “Donuts on a Rope” contrail like from a fast, fast missile. That’s a thing, isn’t it? Some intel guys could chime in here.

[@aidenschvatkok5732]

I haven’t heard anyone mention donuts on a rope contrails in years

[@jmi5969]

No intel necessary, just googlemap Kuzhenkino and see the military bases around it. There's all sorts of SAMs and AAMs.

[@localcrew]

@@aidenschvatkok5732 I try to work it into conversations as much as possible.

[@Kevinmaino]

Hey Juan, would love a breakdown of the ferry flight Embraer with the Gol 737 in Brazil.

[@JohnTrombley]

You are right on top of these events, Thanks

[@richb313]

Thanks for adding your experience to the list of people questioning this crash.

[@poneill65]

I saw reports that the tail and engines (which are back by the tail) were found some miles away from where the fuselage and wings fell. Most likely an anti air missile that targeted the engines and blew the tail off (if not a bomb in the rear)

[@OOpSjm]

Correct, the tumbling debris in the video is just the main fuselage.

[@somaday2595]

But what about the sound of the engines?

[@poneill65]

@@somaday2595 Apologies, I slightly mis-spoke,.. At least one of the engines stayed on the fuselage (it's seen in the wreckage) and was possibly still running while it had fuel. I believe I read the tail section was found with "an" engine,.. maybe so, maybe not, but the tail/elevators/rudder were certainly found miles from the fuselage, there's pictures and locations published.

[@thomasbell7033]

Thanks again, Juan. I'm an aviation writer and I appreciate your narrative approach to these incidents, refusing to engage in outrageous speculation before all the facts are in. We pilots are compulsive second guessers.

[@jonrobinson6046]

Best information from Juan once again. Great job

[@Markle2k]

Embraer, but not a 135. It was a Legacy 600. Private jet.

[@ToddTheJoker]

Be interesting to know who was on that plane and if they may have been hated or a thorn in the side of somebody powerful?

[@737tech]

He had many enemies

[@paulstaney325]

Glad you bothered to report this incident, was hoping you would, always enjoy your clean, consis analysis of these events. As always, my hat's off to you Jaun. Keep up your excellent work !

[@daneast]

Just saw another camera shot of it falling (amazing how many people caught it from the ground - they must have heard an explosion which prompted them to look up). The plane is clearly missing a wing - appears to be the port side wing. Also apparently a wing was found two miles away from the wreckage.

[@beachbum77979]

I'd love to read the translated transcript between the "accident" aircraft and ATC. 795: Mayday Mayday Mayday! ATC: Nature of your emergency? 795: We blew up! ATC :Souls onboard and fuel remaining in minutes? 795: No one on board has a soul, so Zero. Fuel remaining, three minutes of avaition vodka. ATC: Cleared to land, any runway. Will you evacuate on the runway? 795: We already zhit out pants, we promise not to evacuate on the runway. Please roll the vodka tankers though. ATC: You need the number to call the airport lounge? 795: Ready to copy....Standby...BLYAT! ATC: Confirmed. SPLAT!

[@AB-vc7ox]

Russians hit it with a missle. Wagner leadership supposedly aboard. edit: lots of coverage on blogger channels following the war.

[@j2simpso]

It's gonna cost Putin his life I reckon.

[@fungalcoffee]

​@@j2simpsoI'd put money on it that Putin ordered it to be shot down

[@michaelmoore7975]

@@fungalcoffee Yes, correct. To all you Главсеть ольгинские тролли. The boss is dead. Putin's chef has run out of recipes. I told you almost a year ago what was going to happen. Now here it has happened. Do you remember what I said would happen after? I'll say it again, Putin leaves no threads hanging loose. He always trims them off. Too late now, you should have listened.

[@JimMork]

Are we really going to get truthful information as to who really was aboard?

[@AB-vc7ox]

@@JimMork highly unlikely, truth is exceedingly rare in Russian culture.

[@veravalo]

Great to hear from you on this. Did the person pan the camera to another aircraft at 3:22 in your video here? Could that be the engine noise you're hearing. Possible aggressor leaving scene (?).

[@LtNduati]

I think everyone in the world knew that was not an accident the moment word had gone out that the Wagner group leader was possibly on board and was in Russia

[@halmc8109]

"Ass over tea kettle" one of my dad's favorite expression. First time I've heard it for decades -- thanks for the fond memories.

[@markusp9569]

There´s also a video which shows, that the aircraft was missing one wing

[@moxievintage1390]

I did see a clip with a wing clearly absent--the left one, I believe. There apparently was another aircraft, in their envoy, also in the area--just landed from what I heard. An interesting one for sure. THANKS Juan!

[@artomontonen3722]

Another wing has been found a few kilometers away in the forest. The landing gear is in the down position and a large metal plate is missing from the bottom of the wing.

[@dwaynemcallister7231]

The witness said it was missing a wing and after crash parts were still floating down.

[@imo8249]

Believe you're right

[@KateEmCCOffDuty]

Who’s surprised? Great video as always, thanks.

[@JSBIRD69]

I'd love to ear the Cee Eye Aye's alibi regarding their wherabouts during this crash.

[@flipflopsguy8868]

I'm looking at a photo of the left side of tail section on the ground published by the NYT. which seems to have minimal impact damage but I can't see the section where it was attached to the fuselage because there's a tree conspicuously blocking it, it appears to be broken off right before the engine "Outakes" ?

[@MrShenron89]

I'm actually surprised it took this long. I thought he was going to "jump" to his death from some sort tall building / structure.

[@dougrobinson8602]

The most curious thing to me is that someone shot video of the incident. What was happening prior to the video that interested the videographer? Generally speaking, people wouldn't video record an airplane overhead unless something odd was occurring. Maybe they heard an explosion or saw a SAM launching. One thing is for certain: We'll never really know what happened with certainty, and Russian investigators won't exactly be conducting an unbiased examination.

[@PizzaChet]

That dense cloud to the left looks a lot like the mushroom shape of an air-to-air detonation. No surprise. Just like MH 17.

[@Zarcondeegrissom]

and the perforations and multiple crash sites for the aircraft parts, a lot of MH17 similarities. except one was mostly Dutch/Malaysian/Australian/etc passengers, the other a rebellious russian leader destoned to eventually fall multiple stories out a basement window.

[@gporzio55]

I believe MH17 was brought down by a SAM, not an air-to-air missile.

[@hb1338]

Air-to-air or ground-to-air.

[@earlhuff7847]

@@gporzio55 I don't disagree but at that altitude I lean more towards air to air. My uncle is a retired fighter pilot and we discussed this last night. He is convinced air to air, that white smoke that Juan pointed to is classic prox detonation. I am just speculating but my uncle has seen that stuff first hand and I trust his opinion. The missle could have been fired miles away and the fighter that launched already egressed out of the area. There would be no need for evasive action after launching he is well within his own area.

[@JimMork]

That plane came to mind, too. Difference is that those passengers had done no business with Putin at all. They might actually have been victims of Malaysian airlines management. There was no need to fly over that field of battle. It was a risky choice. Mostly saved a little fuel IF IT MADE IT to the destination. Instead the fuel was splattered all over a battlefield.

[@livethefuture2492]

"The higher you go the further you have to fall", quite literally this time as it would seem

[@paulbervid1610]

Great video. It is sad but not surprising I thought the man was going to die about 6 weeks ago due to indigestion or something.

[@skayt35]

I guess Putin preferred to finish Prygoshin in/over Russia so as not to embarass Lukashenko who provided for Prygoshin stopping his march and publicly promised a safe haven in Belarus, with Putin and Prygoshin at Lukashenko's side on TV.

[@irvmaduro]

I saw another video with a wing missing on its way down. Looking at the trail of white smoke just after the incident in the air, looks like a missile attack.

[@dr_jaymz]

This is no accident. I think you are right the tail is missing and consistent with the way it falls. You can't tell if thats separated at the rear pressure bulkhead or not but it probably is, usually of if the tail separates at 500mph it will result in a bunt which will break the wings - and that might be what the mist is from the fuel in the wings. The white cloud does look like its been hit from outside because I've seen a few with a flash before the object and then a larger cloud behind the object, except you can't see a trail to that point - so I'm going to side on in being an explosive device onboard. And it killed Wagner??? nah... far too obvious. One this is for certain - we will never know what happened. I saw the reports claiming it was a missle based on shrapnel holes, but the tail was also found and is free of them - so another reason I think internal.

[@tomriley5790]

I disagree to an extent - everybody knows what happened, we were supposed to.

[@danstrayer111]

"ass over teakettle'........love that technical aviation jargon.