Warner Bros In a Downward Spiral

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Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 31

@mcribprime6594 3 ай бұрын

There’s a massive problem with WBD right now, they have effectively cut everything they can and have lost significant trust with lots of creative talent in Hollywood. 11.2 billion depreciation in 1 Quarter is absolutely staggering, and yes they have paid down some debt they are at a point were they can’t really cut anymore and now have to start selling or leasing assets. DC under Gunn maybe a success but he has turned a hell of a lot people off to DC and he had a major negative impact in DC theatrical gross last year which was freaking abysmal. If you started investing in WBD following the merger then I feel sorry for you because it’s been a torrid couple of years. The next 6 months, with further projected loss of advertising and the complete loss of the NBA (most pointless law Sue in history) will require serious questions to be asked about WBD leadership. 74% stock drop since the merger ouch!!!! For anyone who started investing following the merger you probably would have been better buying a lottery ticket.!

@Edward-vv6xj 3 ай бұрын

Several points. Losing the NBA hurts but not too sure paying over $2B a year makes sense. You say Gunn was the cause of all the bad DC films last year? Really? I think Gunn was brought in due to all the bad DC films last year. Finally, I suspect the 10 season upcoming Harry Potter series is going to be a huge success. Plus throw in the new Superman movie, DC Universe and even Lord of The Rings.... I think WB will have a lot of exciting content. They just need to keep paying down the debt and churning out good content. There will be another Sex in the City, Sopranos, GOT... soon.

@mcribprime6594 3 ай бұрын

@@Edward-vv6xj I said Gunn is one of the reasons the DC did so bad last year, he had direct influence over Shazam II, The Flush, including the removal of several scenes including Henry Cavill. Which infuriated the DC fanbase big time, he then ordered massive reshoots on Aquaman II and removed Batman from the movie. Gunn is a nepotistic narcissist who vile disgusting comments on kids turned me and countless others off for life. I hope you enjoy his superman movie but I won’t be giving him a freaking penny. As for Harry Potter, an interesting one and has the potential to be huge yes, but with WBD slashing costs on house of the dragon the number 1 show in the world they have a lot to prove. Lord of the rings should be left alone the Peter Jackson trilogy extended cuts are the definitive Lord of the rings, look how horrible rings of power was received lol 😂 They should leave that well alone. The NBA, the NBA is second to soccer the most watched sport in the world, without it WBD will take a substantial hit moving forward. The bottom line like I say, WBD has cut pretty much everything they can are now 74% stock drop since the merger and have suffered significant company depreciation.

@Edward-vv6xj 3 ай бұрын

@mcribprime6594 hbo is spending $20 million for each episode of Dragon. That's likely the most expensive show being made right now. Concerning Gunn. I see you're one of these holy people who have never made a snide rude or overtly bad remark. They guy made some bad Twitter posts like 15 years ago. Oh the shame. Go woke or go broke, right? Please. Get over it. Gunn's legacy with DC will start later this year and certainly next year with Superman. I actually really enjoyed that latest Batman too. Interested to see Penguin.

@aightm8 2 ай бұрын

Depreciating intangible assets like goodwill isn't a negative thing. Investors today are getting a tax break, from investors in 2021 who overpaid for the acquisition of warner.

@aightm8 2 ай бұрын

Also the law suit is not pointless. They may very well win it or get a large settlement

@aightm8 2 ай бұрын

Almost everything you're saying is valid. But is this not reflected in the valuation, free cashflow multiple of 3X versus disney which costs 20+X. Its priced for bankruptcy which looking at the debt schedule seems nearly impossible. You also said in the video they are losing money. But depreciation of intangible assets is the reason they are "still losing money". They have the same free cashflow as Netflix, albeit declining. An investor buying today is essentially benefitting on the back of 2021/2022 discovery investors who acquired warner at 25 or whatever it was per share. Depreciating IP and goodwill isnt "losing money". Its saving money by reducing the tax burden

@Club-Dreamiverse 3 ай бұрын

There could be a possibility that NBCUniversal buys out Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount Global and Amazon MGM Studios if that's possible.

@zomba4377 3 ай бұрын

you forget that disney and wbd will be partners coming this august with the bundle so even if disney will be a top dog it's gonna drag wbd with it against netflix, the value in this deal is unparalleled, at the same time venu is coming in a short bit so disney actually bought the nba package for both companies since again it's gonna be a shared platform

@Edward-vv6xj 3 ай бұрын

NBA viewers have been a slow decline for over a decade. There is no need for WB to spend billions. Best to invest in international sports (soccer, cricket, tennis, hockey, etc) that are extremely popular especially since MAX is only beginning to expand worldwide.

@Attackz 3 ай бұрын

They should Just lease IP to competitors. They have brillant IP that could rake in cash.

@aightm8 2 ай бұрын

But they do already rake in cash and they are doing a joint venture with Disney+/Max

@benjaminbritsch1749 Ай бұрын

that would be stupid. They have to roll out their own services and attract more DTC customers - a no brainer in the long run! What they need to do are more joint ventures!

@benjaminbritsch1749 Ай бұрын

I dont agree. WBD needs to roll out their service world wide (what they are doing) then they need more bundles... Bundles are the future! Warner Bros and Disney bundle not only in the US and Netflix can't compete in the long run.

@CameronWaldorf-c4i 3 ай бұрын

This guy doesn't seem to understand much about financial analysis.. saying WBD is loosing money?? The generate free operational cash flow of 8 billion a year.. which they are using to cut their debt at staggering speed! In 2 years time, their "pile" of debt will have been reduced to almost no debt. Then you are left with a business generating a monster cash flow, valued at peanuts (for now). Let alone the massive pipeline they have coming in.. 9B$ impairment on good will is completely irrelevant to the profitability of the business.

@aightm8 2 ай бұрын

Technically on a GAAP basis. But depreciation is pretty irrelevant when it comes to good will or their IP. Versus depreciation of buildings and equipment which is a real cash cost spread out. That sentence really irked me as well, definitely some bias in the video. Most of what he's saying is true. For example Disney being a better business. But fails to take into account that WBD is 1/7th the price based on multiples

@drstone1167 2 ай бұрын

🆘Woke liberal incompetent run WBD/ CNN stock now trading at $8.08 on 9/23/24 is now down over 70%the past 3+ years and stock chart below ⬇️ shows the decline. Remember WBD fell sharply 6.75% in August after taking $9.1B impairment charge. Warner Brothers Discovery / CNN is Absolutely incompetent run company. CNN fake news is a clown show just like MSNBC democrat propaganda network of liars. WBD Investors let’s not forget 🆘Warner Brothers Discovery is run by woke liberal incompetent $overpaid$ management and the stock performance is all the proof you need. WBD stock is down 70% in value the past 3 years. Also CNN which WBD owns is liberal biased fake news network and a propaganda arm of democrat party; they lie to viewers 24/7 just like MSNBC 🤡 clown show does daily. It’s time Warner brothers discovery shareholders start a class action lawsuit to recover some of $money$ they lost because of total mismanagement. 🆘Well run companies over the past same period are up 30 to more than 60%. Which proves my point how poorly WBD/CNN is run

@drstone1167 Ай бұрын

🆘 Warner Brothers Discovery/ CNN management my WBD stock was worth $34.63 per share when Trump was President and on Friday 9/27/24 it closed at $8.38 per share down 75% in value under WBD failed leadership and Biden/Harris failed economy. The WBD stock chart below ⬇️ doesn’t lie like your woke liberal bias reporters do daily at CNN Fake News. 🆘CNN Fake News: Here are some of the reasons why Donald Trump will be re-elected President, regardless of the biased liberal constant negative lying fake news. Kamala Harris the past 3 years and 9 months have been a nightmare for average American family and she owns it. The liberal biased fake news people may cover and make excuses for Harris but you can’t fool the American voters who have been living this nightmare. ❌So far here are 3- of the proposals VP Kamala Harris said she would do if elected president. 1. To fix prices on corporations 2. To raise corporate tax rates from 21% the 28%. 3. Allow Evil Baby killing Abortion for women through the 9 month of pregnancy in all 50 states. ✔️Remember Kamala Harris you were appointed the border Czar by Joe Biden. How did that work out for our country? Over 10 million illegals later pouring in the country, along with criminals, gang members, terrorists and drugs that have killed 250,000 Americans. Many of the illegals have raped, robbed, and beat police and US citizens. That is a fact. If you couldn’t do the job as border Czar as vice president, how the hell are you going to do a good job running the whole country? Life was much better under President Trump 4 years ago with low inflation, low gas prices, low food prices, low mortgage interest rate, lower costs for heating, electric bills, auto insurance and home insurance and we weren’t involved in funding 2- wars. ✝️God help us all if voters are dumb enough to vote for radical democrats Harris & Walz, and the liberal fake news folks lie about their radical failed records and we have voter cheating that helps get the two radical liars elected.