Tesla 4680 - Semi Update and Analysis

[@imagineoneday]

Warren, I really enjoy and value this format like you used to do when you were still in the U.S. on Sundays. I’m glad to see you returning to it. Your analysis is excellent. All the best.

[@WarrenRedlich]

I would like to get back to livestreaming to, at a consistent time, but it's hard to do that for personal reasons and time zone.

[@TecnamTwin]

​@@WarrenRedlich I almost never watch livestreams, but I do enjoy your commentary as it's always value added. Thanks for doing what you do man.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Thanks. I enjoy doing livestreams but they generally do not perform as well as edited videos.

[@mrmariusi]

TLDR. 4680 are essential for the Semi. The Semi needs ~40000 * 2170 cells/truck, but it will require only ~8000 * 4680, making the battery pack easier and cheaper to manufacture. Similar story for ALL non-LFP cars.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Yes

[@onekoolguy4921]

Good informative program Warren! I am in Reno today. Did you know that Tesla has a huge amount of undeveloped space in the industrial park here. Contractors have told me that there lots of upcoming projects there.

[@WarrenRedlich]

I did not know that. Cool!

[@mylimomelbourne4757]

One of the most profound things said was the few drivers that have been ask delivering soft water drinks say there never ever want to go back to diesel semi they love EV Tesla semi, , the saving are incredible with an EV semi, once we see Tesla semi on the roads it’s game over, that’s the EV tipping point for the world, public don’t realise how much fuel a diesel semi uses Melbourne to Perth: Approximately 1713-2055 litres of diesel fuel, costing approximately $3343-$4007 , 40 hrs 3500 k’s. that’s one diesel semi one trip one way,

[@nguyep4]

The economic for Tesla semi is way too good. Spreadsheet talks.

[@markplott4820]

people forget Tesla semi was Developed by Jerome Gulien - former Cascadia and TESLA sat down w/ Tesla ICE semi Drivers to make the BEST Tesla semi.

[@LJ-jq8og]

GO WARREN 💪❤

[@davemilke3110]

Great comments over the video Warren - well thought out and informative.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Thank you

[@helmutshotthesheriff1942]

Nice hearing you again 😊👍

[@WarrenRedlich]

Thanks!

[@markplott4820]

Warren - cybercell is NMC 955, as opposed to NMC 811 early 4680 & model Y. and Tesla is working on NMC 975 . btw NMC 955 is high nickel w/o silicon. and DBE but not cathode, yet

[@TecnamTwin]

With DBE cathode and silicon, capacity could easily be >20% higher.

[@markplott4820]

@@TecnamTwin - must be careful not to fracture, otherwise Thermal runaway.

[@tryhardfpv5351]

If the demand for Semis is based on diesel replacement but if the EV versions are so much cheaper to operate then surely there will be higher demand to replace your existing trucks sooner than you would have. Demand may be 300k or 400k per year instead.

[@ssanpeterson]

OUTSTANDING VIDEO!!

[@WarrenRedlich]

Thanks!

[@justinmallaiz4549]

Your forward looking and closing statements were spot on

[@WarrenRedlich]

Is that a good thing?

[@justinmallaiz4549]

You know it. 🙂

[@jonathangrande9516]

Warren, remember you use to have a battery model back in 2021? And that model showed when Tesla hit production of their 100th millionth battery that the stock would be work $10,000? Yea, good times.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Pretty sure I did not connect it to their millionth battery, but nice trolling

[@johntolkien9629]

@Warren What does IAA stand for ? The International Motor Show Germany or International Mobility Show Germany, in German known as the Internationale Automobil-Ausstellung (IAA - International Automobile Exhibition), is one of the world's largest mobility trade fairs.

[@rollincampbell1]

Thank you!

[@WarrenRedlich]

You're welcome!

[@PatKunst]

Hey Warren, thanks for the detailed information you give. I saw you had a t-shirt that you had designed. Nice job! I also have one that I think could be a hit. I really don’t want to pursue it though. I was wondering if you wanted to see what I came up with then you can decide if it’s something you want to tackle. I’m not looking for any compensation, I just want someone to move ahead with this if they believe it will sell.

[@mlhutche]

In Run on Less thousand mile day they show about 90% charge in one hour

[@Munich81245]

great analysis from you 100% right

[@markplott4820]

Warren - keep in mind, elon said Tesla would be making 4680 in multiple chemistry, like LFP.

[@WarrenRedlich]

I don't remember Elon saying 4680 in LFP

[@markplott4820]

Warren, volvo foe instance produces both COB & conventional in the EU market, others too

[@lesatkins42]

European semi has flat front design to minimize the overall vehicle length for ferry operations so it may not be required by regulations but operators will want it.

[@markplott4820]

they ALSO make Conventional.

[@markplott4820]

W- Pepsi drove +1200 miles in 24h, full load bottles.

[@WarrenRedlich]

I think it was 1100 miles, but still

[@DCGreenZone]

Fire Suppression system is essential for the Semi, for all the good it will do.

[@mlhutche]

Mainteance is about half that of diesel

[@markplott4820]

more like 95% less.

[@mlhutche]

Pepsi says with max weight thy're getting near 1kwh for a mile

[@markplott4820]

Tesla semi is the NEW butterfly, while everyone else is making faster horses ...😂

[@SparkySho]

Really

[@xlargetophat]

Just think of convoy mode.. where trucks can link up to brake the wind resistance

[@sspoonless]

Careful. Don't even conflate "SWAG" with "prediction" - much less "promise". You're setting up for failure instead of success.

[@markplott4820]

W - for now Tesla is giving Pepsi & Tesla VIP Tesla mobile service for all semi in operation. this will scale back as semi enter production next year.

[@markplott4820]

W- the Tesla semi has a flat floor for folding cot or sleeping bag

[@PB-ms4xv]

Do they use a 4680 batteries for mega pack?

[@WarrenRedlich]

No

[@markplott4820]

Warren - Tesla is taegwting ZERO wait times for Megacharging. by charging at loading & unloading. And driver swaps & break.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Agreed. Most charging will be at customer depots. Megacharging will make sense for some use cases.

[@mlhutche]

Semi 4680 use

[@markplott4820]

Warren - keep in mind Tesla/Pepsi built FIRST of its kind Megacharger corridor in NV to SAC to Fremont, Modesto & Fresno , Lathrop.and built dedicated Tesla semi service center near Pepsi Fresno.

[@daveblock]

So? Pepsi got everything free

[@markplott4820]

@@daveblock - Pepsi paid for their share.

[@daveblock]

@@markplott4820 It was a grant for the state of California….thats the money they used. Clueless

[@markplott4820]

@@daveblock - Pepsi also installed SOLAR & Megapack as well. Tesla built Megacharger @ own low cost.

[@markplott4820]

@@daveblock - why , not use free money? let someone else take it away ? clueless.

[@PB-ms4xv]

What about 4680s for mega packs?

[@andromedach]

My question about the semi, are they charging to eighty , ninety, or higher? given the size i would suspect it can be fast charge at a reasonable rate past eighty percen

[@WarrenRedlich]

I'm guessing they charge to around 95%, but it would depend on where they're going next. Charging to high levels doesn't hurt the battery if you drive shortly after charging. Only hurts if you leave it near 100%

[@markplott4820]

depends on Route , if OTR long range they can wait to Charger at Depot , rather than STOP to charge sooner. arrive @ Destination 5% SOC.

[@johnd01]

I would like to see Tesla break out the SuperCharger P and L

[@WarrenRedlich]

I don't think it's big enough to deserve that yet. Might never be.

[@johnd01]

@@WarrenRedlich@WarrenRedlich, I hear several new sources say that the government spent 8 billion on charging stations and only got 8 stations out of it. I do not see how that can be true. I know the government is running fiber to homes miles from the nearest house rather than having Starlink connect to them. Starlink would get a lot of money, but it got canceled. The deep state does not like Elon. Look what the FCC is doing about launch times.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Yep

[@tomdrewenskus8167]

Warren, Tesla bought a wireless charging company a couple of years ago. I thought this was going to be for charging semis going forward. But, I did not hear Dan talk about wireless charging. Any thoughts?

[@WarrenRedlich]

I don't think it's for semi. The company they acquired was pretty low on charging power. I think they want to roll it out for regular cars and for robotaxis. Maybe an in-home-garage solution as well.

[@MattAllen-gr6fy]

I need home charging. I drive local (about 350-400/day). I need a charger I can plug in overnight and charge in 12 hours. If I could do that with current numbers for fuel savings, I'd pay $250k for a Tesla Semi and $20k for a charger. Charging is key

[@daveblock]

You could not get that much electricity to your house

[@MattAllen-gr6fy]

@@daveblock I believe it's possible. I'm next to a main line

[@daveblock]

@@MattAllen-gr6fy No it’s not. It’s pulling as much as an office building.

[@MattAllen-gr6fy]

@daveblock Yes. We have shops around. Really only takes the right inverter and panel.

[@daveblock]

@@MattAllen-gr6fy No. Try an eight story office building coming into your location. That’s the power requirements.

[@davenkaopua4512]

Hi

[@WarrenRedlich]

Yo

[@Michael-il5wd]

they stated it uses .8 kwh per mile, that's only about .12 cents in many states in America!

[@nettlesoup]

That cannot be right. In a follow-up post on 𝕏, they mentioned that they were targeting as low as 1.2 kWh/mile for the semi, but they're not there yet. Did you mean 0.8 kWh/km maybe? That would be more like it.

[@WarrenRedlich]

I think they're going for 1 kwh/km goal, or better

[@Winnetou17]

@@nettlesoup Have no idea where that is from, but if the semi is not at the weight limit (like Pepsico when delivering Lays chips), I think it can do 0.8 kWh/mile

[@johnd01]

I do not see team drivers doing long haul will be able to drive as many miles. Commercial Truck Drivers must take a 30-minute break after 8 hours of driving and a 10-hour break after either 11 hours of driving or 14 hours since coming on duty, whichever comes first. The Team driver goes on duty when the other driver has to take their 10-hour break.

[@WarrenRedlich]

It doesn't have to solve every problem right away. It will have less than 10% market share for at least 5 years, probably 10.

[@WarrenRedlich]

I mean of all trucks on the road. It might get 10% market share of new sales quickly.

[@johnd01]

@@WarrenRedlich I think it is an excellent route truck. The diver picks the truck up at the local terminal, runs a route, and then goes back to the terminal to pick up his car and drive home. That would cover a lot of trucks.

[@markplott4820]

Warren - dan priestly said Tesla would make semi in multiple Variants.

[@markplott4820]

W - all tier 1 battery oem in china are making 4680.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Where have you seen that Mark? Please email me wredlich @ gmail

[@LB_59]

They will ramp much higher in 2025, once giga Berlin starts to get going with their installed and completed building. I’m sure they were waiting for the dry cathode process to be finished.

[@markplott4820]

Warren - use case for Tesla semi will change HOW semi are docked , they can operate inside of commercial buildings w/ ZERO emissions.

[@daveblock]

Just stop. That’s nonsense

[@markplott4820]

​@@daveblock- already happening , see Giga NV

[@daveblock]

@@markplott4820 Buildings have loading docks. They are not building new ones. Just stop.

[@markplott4820]

@@daveblock - Tesla built dedicated Tesla semi pull in service center, in Fresno. and Tesla semi making delivery inside GigaTX.

[@markplott4820]

@@daveblock - it's happening, it's a FACT

[@markplott4820]

Warren, so Tesla semi as is street legal in EU , but unlikely to sell any in EU

[@WarrenRedlich]

I think they will sell in EU

[@markplott4820]

@@WarrenRedlich - sorry, to be clear , probably wont import from USA to sell in EU. it will sell from Berlin factory , to EU Directly.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Yes I think they will build a factory in Europe, and one or more in China.

[@georgeginsburg545]

I thought the best use of 4680 batteries would be for structural battery packs for the model Y, and eventually the model 3

[@markplott4820]

still possible w/ 4680 in all USA Factories.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Standard range M3/Y can use LFP which is not 4680. Chinese battery makers are making structural packs with LFP cells. Semi and Cybertruck are the ones that benefit most from the energy density and other advantages of 4680.

[@georgeginsburg545]

@@WarrenRedlich Since LFP batteries don’t provide as much range, I’d still like to see Tesla produce what we were waiting for from a few years ago, i.e., a Model Y (and even a Model 3 eventually) with a 4680 structural battery pack sandwiched between a front and rear megacasting. This would provide a simpler vehicle with less parts, and therefore less potential rattles. I think the only vehicles produced by Tesla that were close to this, were a few vehicles with a 4680 structural battery pack and a rear megacasting that were sold to Tesla employees to test out.

[@WarrenRedlich]

I'm not sure if they'll go in that direction. The future is robotaxis, and in that future Model 3 and Y might become less important. They're still going to want standard range vehicles with LFP. Both CATL and BYD make structural pack LFP battery packs.

[@mikafiltenborg7572]

💰TSLA 2900$ in year 2030. Warren Redlich 💰 (I agree🤑👍)

[@davidmaisel8062]

Nobody wants a robot, VR glasses, or Twitter. Im glad I sold in 21.

[@jrsands]

Why pipe up?

[@sempleinvest906]

Are you going to make a video on Chris Norlund? i hear he likes Elon

[@WarrenRedlich]

I don’t think so

[@inqwit1]

The thing missing here is knowing the actual costs to purchase, repair and run a diesel truck. No thumbs, you could have taken time to get that information.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Thanks. Video was long enough as it is.

[@markplott4820]

EZ to find ONLINE.

[@WarrenRedlich]

but good feedback

[@markplott4820]

Meanwhile, other ev chargers are having melt down in SO CAL, broken, faluts, offline, not communicating w/ cars , TESLA is not affected.

[@daveblock]

@@markplott4820 What about the grid going down in areas …..add more cars and the more it goes down.

[@markplott4820]

@@daveblock - FAKE NEWS . I live in CA , ZERO outages since 2020 ? besides grid is adding Renewables ALL the time , mostly Wind & Solar w/ battery storage. 2023 my Public Power paid me $50 , in 2024 they paid me $80 . CA is not adding ANY more NEW Nuclear, Fossil Fool powerplants but adding lots of Solar, Wind, Battery. so are EVERYONE else in USA. Nuclear , and Fossil Fools for Energy are in HISTORIC Decline , many STATES Deleting coal , over SWB - Solar, Wind, battery.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Heavy adoption of EVs in Scandinavia and China, no grid problems.

[@markplott4820]

@@daveblock - NORWAY nearly 100% EV , no grid problems. and it SNOWS there. CHYNA more than 50% EV , no grid problems.

[@daveblock]

@@markplott4820 Norway citizens buy EV’s as a second car and do not get rid of their ICE vehicles…..they need those for winter. In fact, there are more ICE vehicles in 2024 than the previous year. Norway basically pays people to buy the,, they are running a tax deficit now. In no place EV’s compete with ICE in a market where no government subsidies exist EV sales plummet. Look at Germany fanboy.

[@markplott4820]

W - Mexico potential market for semi.

[@daveblock]

@@markplott4820 Nonsense. No charging

[@markplott4820]

@@daveblock - Pepsi and Tesla did NOT have Megacharging before 2023 , in less than YEAR , built Megacherging corridor in NV, LV, and CA.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Mexico makes a lot of sense.

[@daveblock]

@@WarrenRedlich Zero charging so makes no sense

[@WarrenRedlich]

Northern Mexico has superchargers. I forget where the line is but somewhere in southern Mexico they vanish.

[@markplott4820]

Warren - joe tegmeyer said Tesla was developing nmc 975 at TX.

[@WarrenRedlich]

I think it's 955 but yes.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Actually maybe 973 or 937?

[@WarrenRedlich]

The 3 is cobalt, the 7 is manganese

[@markplott4820]

Warren - 4680 is not for use in smaller vehicles, 4680 is high nickel for long range vehicles. LFP/LFPM is better for General vehicles, but Future model Y may use 4680, and semi plant will probably use 4680 cybercell.

[@markplott4820]

W - definitely....... definitely......in China - rain man.

[@johnnybeaujean]

One million 4680's will make only 125 CT's

[@WarrenRedlich]

I think your math is off.

[@markplott4820]

UR way off.

[@alanrickett2537]

Central Spain would like a word will you Warren

[@WarrenRedlich]

About what?

[@WarrenRedlich]

Cual palabra?

[@lawsnewton]

EV > Hybrid

[@markplott4820]

correct EV , can mean many things, like range extender, Hybrids, fcev, and BEV. but BEV is only one that's 100% electric.

[@xlargetophat]

Trucker gets a shower and wash laundry.. full charged and on the road

[@markplott4820]

but, where is 100 millionth gm ultium battery, .....no where.......lol😂

[@SparkySho]

Wrong battery chemistry

[@SparkySho]

“ The Limiting Factor “ major assistance on this video tytyty for his knowledge

[@BlondieSuperdog]

Tesla has made very few of these. One has caught fire blocking highway traffic for 15 hours. A megapack has been needed to provide a boast to local power in order charge quickly. Until there is a better sell; the Semi will be limited to short haul and very costly. A better battery tech would expand the role and hopefully cost less and burn less.

[@WarrenRedlich]

Megapack does more than boost local power. It allows time shifting, charging itself at low rates and charging trucks when rates are high. If you think Semi is limited to short haul, you didn't watch or understand this video.

[@markplott4820]

Warren is correct.

[@BlondieSuperdog]

@@WarrenRedlich It is limited to short range; the max range loaded is only about 200 miles; then if you are going to charge it at any sort of decent time frame; you need a megapack available. While it may be plausible to charge a slower time frame if the truck needs significant time to be loaded or unloaded; that is rare especially on long haul. So, like Pepsi the trucks go out to deliver and return; within the range possible. If you are not loaded on the return; that is a radius of roughly 150 miles.

[@WarrenRedlich]

"It is limited to short range; the max range loaded is only about 200 miles;" Tell us you didn't watch the video without telling us. OMG that was so dumb. The current version of Semi (they've got about 100 in operation between Pepsi and Tesla) gets 500 miles of range fully loaded over hilly terrain. Some estimate it actually has 570 miles of range if pushed.

[@daveblock]

What we do know is demand for EV’s is plummeting in Europe and down in the US.

[@MattAllen-gr6fy]

@@daveblock and how is that when EV sales are increasing overall?

[@daveblock]

@@MattAllen-gr6fy They are not increasing…..who told you that? They are plummeting in Europe and down from last year in the US.

[@markplott4820]

UNTRUE . demand id Decreeing for ICE & Hybrids. BEV have UNLIMITED Demand WORLDWIDE . Norway 99.99% BEV .

[@WarrenRedlich]

There is no "EV demand". There's vehicle demand. If EVs are superior to gas, then consumers will want EVs.

[@waynerussell6401]

@@daveblock12.4% is how much EV sales grew globally in the first half of 2024, compared to H1 2023. 4,590,947 battery-electric vehicles were sold in the world in the first half of 2024 (H1 2024). 36 markets saw EV sales grow compared to the first half of last year, yet 16 markets saw a decline. 12% is the market share these 4.59M EVs took in total light-duty vehicles sold in the world. In other words, Every 9th (well really every 8.33th) vehicle sold in the world was fully electric. The EV Universe.

[@daveblock]

Get real. Three mega chargers require a $2M mega pack so it’s too cost prohibitive to have a fleet of trucks. Secondly, in testimony to congress there is a Chicago based trucking company that wanted to get just 30 Semi’s, they went to the city inquiring about upgrading the grid, the city basically laughed in their face and said it would melt the grid. Lastly, there will not be any long haul trucking in the US because no trucking company is going to spend millions to install charging so EV’s can get on the roads. They already have 100% of the customer base and make their money inside selling things. And no, a trucker is not stopping at a charging station then going to a truck stop to rest and eat. The semi is a gimmick. If Pepsi didn’t get theirs for free they wouldn’t want them either.

[@nettlesoup]

Three Megachargers delivering an average 500 kWh per fill, 12 times per day (so less than 40% utilisation per day) with a profit of 10 cents per kWh, 360 days a year, gives $648,000 profit/year. Just over 3 years to recoup the $3 million investment. After that it's gravy.

[@daveblock]

@@nettlesoup Just stop fanboy. Nonsense. Three chargers is nothing at a truck stop when it takes an hour to charge…..nobody can wait in line that long.

[@daveblock]

@@nettlesoup Your charging rate is more than diesel

[@nettlesoup]

@@daveblock "it takes an hour to charge" -- every EV hater who's never driven a Tesla. Nobody charges for 1 hour. At a peak rate over 1 MW, a 500 kWh fill is going to be done in 30 minutes or less. Wholesale electricity market price (according to EIA portal) varies by US state and time but average is between 1-5 cents per kWh. Taking worst case, 5 cents + our 10 cents profit = 15 cents per kWh. At 1.5 kWh per mile that's 15×1.5 = 22½ cents per mile. A reasonably low average US cost of diesel in most states is $2.70. So at the best, newest diesel semi truck efficiency of 10 mpg, we have 27 cents per mile. Or 4½ cents per mile more expensive than the worst case for Tesla Semi. And that's before we even talk about less maintenance on EVs, quieter, faster, no local emissions...

[@WarrenRedlich]

Typical truck stop charge will probably be from 20% to 80% in 30 minutes or so. Long haul diesel Semi takes 15 minutes or so to refuel, plus time to pay etc. Tesla charging is automatic so saves time on that part.