No, That Watch is Not an Investment - Collecting Watches in 2025

[@JamesCarian]

Tim, as someone who has purchased, traded, and sold several watches over the past 5 years - I can attest that you are spot on. I've never bought a watch with the intention of selling it. But when I have sold, because something else more interesting came along or I changed my approach to collecting, I've lost money every time. Like you shared about your JLC, if we considered ourselves investors in this space we'd have to go down in history for having the worst returns of all time 😂 Thanks for the great episode, hope your year is starting out well! Cheers!

[@the1916company]

Thank you James. I hope this new year brings its best for you and yours. Best, Tim

[@clintonshiells3095]

I watched this afterwards. What an amazing amount of valuable information! Many thx Tim

[@the1916company]

My pleasure! I wish I could have expanded on all the topics, but my Monday was crazy. As a fairly improvised and extemporaneous episode, this worked out better than I'd expected. Best, Tim

[@SpookyConcepts]

Tim and team, I love these more free form shows! Thanks for putting this one on!

[@the1916company]

Thank you! I'd like to shoot more in the future. I had to record three entire inventory shows for the other channel and some shorter-form videos in addition to this show, so I knew it was going to be wrist shots and then a bunch of winging it. While I like the uniqueness of my highly-illustrated live shows, this episode was a welcome reprieve on a day when I really needed every minute. Best, Tim

[@FirestormAA]

Missed the Live show, catching the replay....... always awesome!

[@the1916company]

Thank you for supporting the show any way you can! Best, Tim

[@benshnall9009]

Great episode as always, Tim + team!

[@the1916company]

Thank you! For a fairly stripped down presentation, this felt like a blast to share and cast. Best, Tim

[@TheArgentavis]

I find Tim's insights on Bitcoin to be the most logical I've encountered so far. Another excellent episode, as usual! 👏 Happy New Year, Tim, and the entire team at the 1916 Company! 🎉

[@the1916company]

It just seemed logical to focus on the bitcoin endgame. Will it be spent as a coin/currency? If not, then it's not really money. And if it doesn't have an end use, then it's not a commodity, either. So, each sits on his pile hoping somebody else will pay a premium for the privilege to sit on that pile. Spending the Bitcoin entails forfeiture of the supposed endless upward value spiral we're assured will follow, so spending is avoided. Also, note my total inability to market my videos. If I were more inclined to bait clicks, this videos would have been titled "Bitcoin vs Patek Philippe" or some such ridiculous thing. It would have more views, too. Best, Tim

[@TylerKTanaka]

15:06 I really appreciate & respect Tim’s take on the IWC Ingenieur… I like it a lot, I love it when I put it on my wrist… but the price for what it is, yikes 😩

[@the1916company]

It's a great watch, and it's definitely the Ingenieur we've been asking IWC to make for years. But the price... challenging. Right now, the potential 8-year warranty and more sustainable aftermarket pricing make this look like a great used buy. Best, Tim

[@TylerKTanaka]

@ completely agree Tim. At $9500 or anywhere sub-$10k it’s probably one of the standout & hit pieces of the last year

[@MichiPlank]

I can't imagine anything more goofy than trying to convince an AD via wshowing them online-shittalk on an iPad to give you a discount lmao

[@the1916company]

And yet, I wouldn't mention it if it hadn't happened. Several times. Best, Tim

[@jire9831]

Missed the live show Tim. Happy New Year. People always fail to account for the opportunity cost when thinking about watches as investments.

[@the1916company]

Very true. I've seen an average of 5% on some money market funds - basically cash - over the last two years. Hell, I've never owned a watch that gained 5% per year! Best, Tim

[@the1916company]

And while cash has been good to the tune of 5%+, equities have returned double digits without having to own anything too speculative or risky. Best, Tim

[@Ryan_Tinney]

Another terrific show Tim and team.

[@the1916company]

Thank you, Ryan! Best, Tim

[@nicholasmesick4020]

Can we discuss for a second how STACKED the first viewers wristwatch check was… 😳

[@the1916company]

I like to open with fireworks! Best, Tim

[@Greysprunkiyay]

lol hype trash. Guess you’re a normie…nothing wrong with that.

[@nicholasmesick4020]

@@Greysprunkiyaysettle down lol. I never said I wanted all of them, or any of them. Just commenting on the selection

[@BobbyDazzler888]

Annoying hype. 🐑 Look at me, look at me.

[@abhaig]

My thoughts exactly😂 hype fest start to 2024 with lots of Rolex bling😂

[@Greysprunkiyay]

In fairness, Tim, your company was one of the main drivers of FPJ hype back in the day. There’s always astroturfing going on with FPJ, Rolex, PP, AP etc.

[@the1916company]

Not really. Most of our asking prices reflect previous auction prices - the market - rather than attempts to set new price ceilings. Public records of transaction prices are what drove the Journe hype, and we don't leave any. Best, Tim

[@Greysprunkiyay]

@@the1916company oh. LOL

[@BobbyDazzler888]

@@the1916companyballs. Before covid and the masses of youtubers, ‘you’ and ‘mclovin’ were creating the fjp hype

[@BobbyDazzler888]

@@the1916companydeleting comments?! Truth hurts…

[@the1916company]

@@BobbyDazzler888 If anyone's deleting comments, it's not me. All of this OPs comments are still visible. Best, Tim

[@david.9633]

Thank you for the wonderful video and words of wisdom, Tim.

[@Kogemate]

An investment generates cash flow. Buying a watch "to make money" is actually a pure speculative buy. There is a very interesting yt video of Warren Buffett about this difference.

[@the1916company]

Well, speculation has its place. It's just not for amateurs and not for those who can't afford to lose. Even at the highest levels, long-term investment strategies tend to be the winners when paired with sound fundamentals and clear long-term goals for the investment. Best, Tim

[@torontowatches9709]

Tim you’re the greatest! Love your reviews and assessment of the watch market!

[@the1916company]

That's extremely kind. Thank you for watching! Best, Tim

[@clarkmackintosh891]

I want a GMT or Dual time watch $10k or under. Been waiting on a GMT Master II for 5 years and counting (even with buy history). Does anyone have any recommendations? I live in California and tend to be more business casual in daily attire given my profession. Also, am open to Swiss, German, and Japanese brands in particular. 🙏

[@Molloy1951]

Commenting just for the algo. Have a great 2025, Tim!

[@the1916company]

I appreciate that! Best, Tim

[@allanlai_]

Fair to compare 5227 with LF when latter costs much more?

[@the1916company]

Given the volume disparity, it's fair. The 5227 would cost the same amount if Patek made only 250 per year of the model. That's probably around how many micro-rotor autos LF makes per year. Best, Tim

[@allanlai_]

@ hadn’t thought of it that way. Thanks for the perspective!

[@rolfo8601]

wierd how the hivemind works. literally just bought a rieussec

[@the1916company]

That's just a beautiful mind working its magic. Well bought. Best, Tim

[@masterwatch]

Markets will go up and down in 2 year cycle. Experienced business people will build a business to cope with this but what you really need to know is what the market is doing in 4 years time as getting that wrong can hurt. In the Watch business chasing the trend will inevitably disappoint as by the time you've followed the trend, the buyers will have moved on. Better to set the trend rather than follow especially in watches.

[@DCbell5]

Some wisdom being handed out for free.

[@the1916company]

I hope it proves useful. Also, I hope it's not viewed as self-serving. Within the limits I face working for a vendor, I try to be as frank and direct as possible. Best, Tim

[@lamentate07]

The decline in China has no doubt contributed greatly to some of the problems in the watch market because that is where most of the growth has occurred in the last 10-15 or so years. Hong Kong, on the other hand, has been a big market for luxury watches for decades. According to reports I've seen, Omega depends on China for around 29% of its sales while Cartier is at 15% and Rolex at 12%. At the lower end, Longines has a staggering 68% dependence on China, and since the entry/premium space is largely a volume game, unlike AP, Patek etc, that doesn't bode well for these companies, at least not in the short to medium term. Having said that, eastern markets still have massive growth potential, so while interest will taper off in the west with time, the east will pick up the slack.

[@CESONER]

This one is exceptional. Saved for reference. And lol I can not get any device to show me the live stream. 🤦🏻

[@the1916company]

Thanks for supporting the show! We had some YT problems of our own tonight, so I feel your tech problems big time. Best, Tim

[@CESONER]

What was that fun watch co we’ve never heard of? Sounds like Jon Dunan?

[@alecleamus3280]

“but never buy Breguet at retail”…like TGV did! 😂

[@BobbyDazzler888]

Who? The exposed fraud?

[@localheroEd]

As per Tim’s prior show on when to buy new or preowned, TGV made the right choice for him. Depreciation is only an issue for sellers, provided you’re comfortable with the purchase price. And no, TGV is the Urban Gentry not the disgraced Time Piece Gentleman (TPG).

[@the1916company]

@@localheroEd That's important to remember. Sometimes, an individual will choose new for personal reasons. And no innocent acronyms deserve to get lumped in with T*P*G! Best, Tim

[@hanwenlu]

The growth in Japan market is, at least, partial due to the relative weakness of Yen and proximity to China. Lots of Chinese tourists actually travel to Japan and shop luxury products. I suspect the growth is not sustainable.

[@BobbyDazzler888]

First part true, second part untrue. Very minuscule numbers of chinese buying watches in japan. The growth will implode as the stores are overstocked are watches are becoming less in demand because of the trickle down of watches being sold to real customers in AD’s.

[@realchuckp]

come on, tim... exports (wholesale) are not sell-though, there are insane amounts of unsold inventory at dealers worldwide. the watch industry is in real trouble. suppliers are facing huge drops in order volumes and having to let people go. winter is coming. buyers market but it will also be sad to see the industry contract. less variety and less craft.

[@JamesAlexander14]

I never buy a watch as an investment. If you want an investment, buy gold, property or well researched stocks and shares. Watches I buy because I like the model. Period.

[@visiondecalee-o4f]

You should interview a few crypto bros who went from no-watch to FPJ overnight

[@BobbyDazzler888]

Nobody wants that

[@DavidWilliams-zn2nc]

And the Rolex haters start 2025 as they finished 2024….. absolutely green with envy 🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️!!!

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