What Does the Future of Space Travel Look Like? - with Chris Impey

The race to explore space is speeding up, Chris Impey looks at the astronomy and technology to bring people to the last frontier.
Chris' new book "Beyond: Our Future in Space" is available now: geni.us/futureinspace
Watch the Q&A: • Q&A: Our Future in Spa...
From private sector efforts led by SpaceX and Virgin Galactic to a new space race between the US and China, human space exploration is set to take off in the coming years. Chris Impey explores the history and landmarks of the international space program, gives a snapshot of the current dynamic situation and plots the probable trajectory of the future of space travel.
Chris Impey is a professor and deputy head of the department of astronomy at the University of Arizona. His astronomy research focuses on observational cosmology-using telescopes and other instruments to study the large-scale structure and evolution of the universe. He also does research on education and science literacy.
This talk was livestreamed on 24 June 2021.
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0:00 Introduction
0:47 Space is Big
0:59 A Scale Model
2:00 Early History
6:05 Leonov Space Walk
7:03 Going to the Moon
8:29 The State of Space
9:18 That sinking feeling...
10:07 Meanwhile in China...
11:26 The Private Sector
16:00 Space Travel is Still Hard
17:43 The Economics
18:36 Economic Model
20:58 Room at the Bottom
22:25 THE INTERNET
25:08 The future is here...
26:01 On the Horizon
26:43 Stairway to heaven...
28:35 and mining asteroids
30:20 Jobs on Mars
30:24 Beyond the Horizon
30:32 THE GREEN MARS
32:36 Reaching for the Stars
34:22 Neighborhood Earth
34:37 Suspended Animation
35:10 Chinese Moon Base
35:43 Virgin Europa
36:18 Off-Earth Baby
36:29 Permanent Mars Colony
37:05 Exploring Alpha Centauri
37:15 Von Neumann Probes
37:54 Teleportation Test
38:37 Mastery of the Solar System

[@williamarmstrong7199]

This should be showen to every child who is starting secondary level education at 11 years old!

[@andycordy5190]

Loved the comparison between the cost of the movie Avatar and that of the Kepler telescope. A thought so rich in meanings.

[@Ulnvtcydr]

Some fascinating and inspiring ideas in this presentation. I thoroughly enjoyed it, thank you.

[@adrianworley7060]

These ideas for terraforming Mars all sound great, but ignore the lack of a magnetic field. The reason Mars has such a thin atmosphere is the "solar wind" is "blowing" it away.

[@kezzaman]

We can create a magnetic field by laying a single cable around the planet and passing a current through it

[@apexpredator1018]

@@kezzaman Except there would be people there. Mars is NO JOKE to terraform safely. It may be "possible" to do so, but it ain't gonna be easy.

[@kezzaman]

@@apexpredator1018 you might be the god of understatements

[@apexpredator1018]

@@kezzaman Here's another: Tell Musk to fund ur idea 💡 He TALKS about occupying that planet, but he still hoards over $100 BILLION. What he's claiming is borderline impossible, unless he blows his "fortune" on it haha

[@kezzaman]

@@apexpredator1018 haha. OK i'll give him a call 🙃

[@W00PIE]

I don't think that the big leap can be achieved with better rockets or improved propulsion, but with a space elevator. It might seem far away, but according to an ESA expert (Markus Landgraf), there are surprisingly low technical barriers to overcome. Most importantly, we need to make progress in material science, in the field of carbon nanotubes. There's progress being made, but industrial applications currently don't need longer structures, therefore research on that topic is currently not in focus. I wish one of the big global private players would realize the potential that lies in this field. It would be a giant project, but once we build it, the bottleneck of getting up there will disappear. I hope I'll live long enough to see it.

[@thirteenthstyle2493]

Look up the us navy’s railgun. Magnetic launch.

[@JL-pc2eh]

@@thirteenthstyle2493 most things would be crushed by the g-forces, including humans

[@apexpredator1018]

Why don't U make it?

[@888netg]

Not on a planet with an atmosphere maybe on a moon with no atmosphere and low gravity

[@SimonSozzi7258]

3:01 Not just curiosity. México was a major hunting ground for Mammoth.

[@JesseRedmanBand]

Maybe the Fermi Paradox means that no civilization ever overcomes the vastness of space and that the most we can ever hope for is visiting the bodies within our own solar system.

[@AttilaAsztalos]

Statistics alone suggest that somebody, somewhere WILL travel to other systems - if nothing else, then via (possibly hybernating) generation ships if nothing else. Then again, I'm not buying the whole "light speed limit" thing either - we're a bunch of surprisingly crafty fuckers, and I'm SURE that given enough time we'd find some sort of loophole to get there much faster; unfortunately, the "given enough time" is our Achilles heel - one good look around is enough to explain why "enough time" might be a serious problem for the human species.

[@DigDougDig]

@@AttilaAsztalos sooner than you think. A few months, the first fully functional all electric Sub Light Impulse Engine will be finished and ready for independent testing.

[@vmwav598]

Danke schön.

[@SlowToe]

Hope 🙌

[@jacobellinger8027]

I can understand why some people don't think we did, if we've gone this long and technology had gotten this far and yet we still haven't been back I would start to question if we ever went. ... IF I was more paranoid that is.

[@shakursmith4862]

Yeah I can also understand. I feel like it’s more so a failure of the public, and education system, to educate people on modern physics and space travel

[@clown134]

but also there's no real reason to go back. we went, we saw, there was nothing there

[@bilbodilger897]

Might be a tenny tiny bit optimistic but i am all on. This story of space conquest makes impatient yet at the same a little sad, probably everyone alive as of today won't live to see it all.

[@DigDougDig]

Have hope, a few more months, science fiction is becoming a reality. The first all electric Sub Light Impulse Engine is being assembled now, then independent testing.

[@bruinflight1]

A great analysis and hopefully eye-opening and motivating for the West. And when you assert 'nobody can own the moon', that assertion is based on who controls the narrative, and the people controlling the narrative are changing.

[@center__mass]

True. One thing we know for sure is we will not believe one thing the USA has to say about anything.

[@danarchist74]

Where did Chris get the information that the Chinese "military industrial complex" has merged with the Chinese space program? I ask due to the fact that United States spends $1 trillion a year on defence and China 1/10th what the United States spends on defence.

[@a.n.3171]

Did anyone check the numbers on the scale model? The earth has a diameter of roughly 12000km. In a 1 to 10 000 000 scale that would be 1.2m If the Sun were a 3m ball it would be about 100 times its diameter from the earth, that would be 300m.

[@conradspamer2077]

No, was too busy getting into a twist about having my time wasted by a Gr 8 level presentation. My calculator concurs.

[@yousuck6222]

If that is the future, you can have it.

[@jonathanbyrdmusic]

Fantastic exploration of all these ideas. Thank you.

[@RasakBlood]

An interesting and fun video. But anyone comparing blue origin and spacex and place them at the same lvl is just not paying attention to the reality of the space industry. One is yet to reach orbit and the other put more mass into space then the rest of the world combined last year.

[@dylangtech]

When you talked about the "8 or 9% of Americans" I was like "oh boy..." but I guess it's better than pretending that isn't a thing here heheh. Your presentation is great! Exploration for God, for glory, or for gold is not new, but we can do it to lifeless worlds without the moral question. Space access may become the next technological revolution. For the last 50 years it was computing. Now we can use these extremely small, powerful, ans efficient computers for something grand. For resources, money, scientific advancement, and technical advancement.

[@eternisedDragon7]

No, physical space exploration risks forwards-contamination which risks kick-starting evolution of life and thereby the suffering of millions of species' populations at any point in time throughout billions of years, and hence is a macro-criminal act of daring to play god (or risk doing so), and ultimately for this reason, physical space exploration will gladly forever stay a matter of the past, an ethically immature civilization's former grand burden of criminality.

[@Jvavolerpareil]

Very interesting content, but sound is not very good. It sounds like you're speaking in a smartphone.

[@user-ix3uy5zd2i]

is time travel to past future really possible i want to do i am from india please help me out

[@ColonelEviscerator]

NASA's budget as a percentage of government budget has shrunk yes. NASA's budget as a percentage of GDP has remained more consistent however, so we are perfectly within our rights to criticize them, especially when they're not efficiently using what they have and allowed two shuttles to explode through negligence.

[@shakursmith4862]

i wish this would have focused more on current space objectives, like moon and mars bases/colonies, reusability, space debris and potential space conflicts. Just seems a little counterproductive to introduce people to space elevators and worm holes if you’re not really going to go in depth.

[@deeiks12]

Yes, and it also had many factual errors.

[@oliverwilson11]

Counterproductive to what goal? If it makes people think that humans living in space is infeasible fantasy then that's good because that's true

[@shakursmith4862]

@@oliverwilson11 is it true though? Haven’t we had people living in space for months at a time on a spacecraft that was built 24 years ago? I don’t see how it’s infeasible, or a fantasy. I just think the guy could have talked about more realistic ways to visit space and stay for longer than we can currently. Not cryo sleeping and other silly ideas

[@oliverwilson11]

@@shakursmith4862 Yeah they have to come back after a few months otherwise they do too much damage to their bodies. Nobody lives in Antarctica even though there are always at least a thousand people there, there's no medical reason why you couldn't live there your whole life, and attempts have been made for decades to establish permanent settlement. Living in space is infinitely less practical.

[@TravelGamerKpopper]

Asteroid mining could bring down the price of rare minerals in order to develop more technology and make more progress in other areas!

[@franksmith7247]

Goddard's first flight was in Massachusetts rather than Minnesota.

[@Jesus.the.Christ]

What is the criteria for giving a Royal Institute presentation? Writing a book?

[@lavie403]

Chris Impey is a professor and deputy head of the department of astronomy at the University of Arizona.

[@Jesus.the.Christ]

@@lavie403 that's not criteria, that just listing his credentials.

[@lavie403]

​@@Jesus.the.Christ You can contact them on their web site (sorry youtube don't accept the link). On the web site: "Recent Discourses have been presented by Nobel prize winners, Fields medal winners, scientists, authors and artists - all from the eading-edge of their field. All our Discourse speakers follow in a long tradition of world-leading talks at the Ri, including the first public liquefaction of air by James Dewar, the announcement of the electron by JJ Thomson and over 100 lectures by Michael Faraday."

[@Jesus.the.Christ]

@@lavie403 Whoosh. I wasn't asking about the credentials required, I was spewing an insult for having such a lack luster speaker who presented quite a few opinions instead of fact.

[@mileshall9235]

​@@Jesus.the.Christ 😂😅😅🥸🥸🤡🤡

[@jimvandenakker7076]

Hi Chris yeah great work Chris it looks like there's faces carved in that hill back there and they look like they put a fake hill in front of it trying to cover it When I use a powerful mag that's what I'm seeing Thanks again for your hard work Chris

[@ClannCholmain]

Guys, it happened!

[@glenndennis6801]

Too bad there are so many mistakes in this. Others have pointed out some. I would like to add the "Lindbergh prize"; The Orteig Prize was a reward offered to the first Allied aviator(s) to fly non-stop from New York City to Paris or vice versa. It was won by Lindbergh but he was not the first to fly transatlantic. British aviators John Alcock and Arthur Brown made the first ever non-stop transatlantic flight in June 1919.[1] They flew a modified First World War Vickers Vimy[2] bomber from St. John's, Newfoundland, to Clifden, County Galway, Ireland. There was also an airship that made the flight across and back. From Wikipedia.

[@gt1man931]

We aren't going anywhere notable nor going to thrive anywhere outside of our Earth atmosphere for decades and decades, more likely a century or two away. Here is hoping we last that long. 🥂

[@shakursmith4862]

Unless we send bots to do the work for us

[@Kinvesu]

It's amazing that china is doing all this catch up, innovation, surpassing us, allocating huge budgets to their military and space programs etc etc etc yet, they still receive humanitarian aid. Mind boggling.

[@plasmaburndeath]

number one issue I always have with "oh we are limited with what we can get to orbit with current technology" Kind of sayings is this: We *Could* Have *SeaDragon* a Huge Dumb Rocket capable of easily doing 100+Tons to Low Earth Orbit, But in discussions on that Rocket to many experts say "Oh we have no need and nothing we have would need such a large rocket to make it usable" And I am all like, "DON'T You guys ever talk to each other!?" We don't need nuclear when we can make SeaDragons and launch all the stuff we want very cheaply quickly, then do Nuclear from the Uranium Mined in space, much cheaper and safer, and a lot less controversial than trying to send Nuclear stuff up in rockets from earth.

[@Ryo-sd9rx]

Pretty sure Elon is surpassing Jeff by about 80 billion now

[@shakursmith4862]

Did this man really just call starship the ITS!? Catchup dude..

[@W00PIE]

I think we should call it Bob. Yes.

[@JoshsBookishVoyage]

Great discussion of history, but I found the central premise of the talk to be a much smaller (and less satisfying) part of the discussion. I'd like to know your motivation to assert that long term suspension is actually within reach. A very quick web search suggests nothing new has happened to make this seem like real science. I'm disappointed to see that promoted so carelessly.

[@shakursmith4862]

Agreed! It’s seems like he went back and read his own book to prepare for this.

[@JoshsBookishVoyage]

I'm also curious to see a deeper look at how likely it would be that we saw life. For example. lets say they've traveled the entirety of the galaxy. Lets even see how many lines they could feasibly do within the lifespan of the galaxy, then assume they've done them evenly spaced throughout the galaxy. Or we could assume they'd restrict them selves to the habitable zone of the galaxy. Then lets ask how far we can feasibly see (and perhaps speculate on the capabilities of future tech). How close do they have to be to identify life on earth or in our solar system? If you want to speculate on the likelihood of ET Life finding us, lets take it to its logical conclusion.

[@HebaruSan]

Let's do life extension instead. Then instead of freezing our bodies, we'd just need to find a way to keep ourselves occupied for 1000 years in transit.

[@johnhanson6039]

Biggest concern is this has data mostly from 2018 or so, should be this year or at least last year

[@shakursmith4862]

Agreed

[@arthurfarrow]

With a large number of engines in the first stage of the ITS, I am reminded of the Soviet N1

[@michaelsommers2356]

I think Impey is wildly optimistic. Among other things, he completely ignored the effects of radiation and low gravity.

[@apexpredator1018]

He does temper his enthusiasm with realism. His predictions are not unreasonable (e.g. China's / 🇺🇸 moon base before a mars colony)

[@michaelsommers2356]

@@apexpredator1018 Not enough realism. As I mentioned, he completely ignored radiation and low gravity. He simply assumed that humans can conceive in space, and that such babies will be perfectly healthy. And where did he get the idea that asteroid mining would be cheap?

[@simonjones1638]

@@michaelsommers2356 He presents some nice ideas though

[@michaelsommers2356]

@@simonjones1638 Such as?

[@simonjones1638]

@@michaelsommers2356 I didn't have any particular idea in mind, I just enjoyed hearing about the potential of space travel.

[@michaelelbert5798]

Minding right?

[@Bestape]

They don't need to make the money back circa 18:50 ? They aren't worth that much because of raw cash fyi.

[@wktodd]

Your scale is wrong if sun is 3m Neptune would be nearer 20km away

[@TheDanEdwards]

"Your scale is wrong if sun is 3m Neptune would be nearer 20km away" ??? Neptune is about 30x away from Earth, compared to the distance to the sun.

[@fascistpedant758]

If the Sun was 3m, it would be ~300m away. Neptune would be ~9km from the Sun.

[@wktodd]

@@fascistpedant758 Yes you are correct . 9km not 2km as stated in the lecture or my 20km guess 8-)

[@walnutclose5210]

There is more than enough speculative-to-the-point-of-being-fictional science, and just plain ignoring of economics, in this to have disqualified it from the Royal Institution. I really expect better from RI.

[@Youtubechannel-po8cz]

And many Americans believe the earth is only 5000 years old. !!!

[@N0Xa880iUL]

Idc anymore. Let's look at our future on earth first.

[@kezzaman]

I think looking at our future on earth is the reason people want to leave

[@kamipls6790]

@@kezzaman and ppl will bring the problems with them. Super filthy rich will be there first anyways. We are doomed.

[@N0Xa880iUL]

@@kamipls6790 Exactly. Spot on.

[@cameron1376]

@@kezzaman 😆

[@NomadUniverse]

The pic at 8:20 ish I believe is the first untethered spacewalk ever performed and the anniversary of that was just last week.

[@johnwalton9855]

I think the earth might be bigger than 10 million times the size of a wallnut - should it not maybe be ten trillion??

[@apexpredator1018]

18:00 If these billionaires are so eager to develop space travel quickly, why are they HOARDING thousands of MILLIONS of 💰? Can't they self-fund their ambitions?

[@joansparky4439]

thats not cash, its what their companies/shares in them are worth.

[@apexpredator1018]

@@joansparky4439 Except it's their OWN wealth. They still hoard MILLIONS in cash. Don't make excuses for the insane. They have too much money for any 🐜 and buy ridiculous things instead of solving 🌎 problems

[@joansparky4439]

@@apexpredator1018 Look mate, I am overall supportive of your moral opinion, but the way you go about it is simply wrong and will not solve the issue of some being wealthy at the cost of the rest. Just look at history.. did anything change? No. We always land here. So why would this time be any different? You have to dig deeper to understand what is happening to come up with a proper solution. Musk, Bezos, etc. are not even the worst of them.. they are actually the ones who do use their money to do stuff with. There really are hoarders and absolute nasty pieces of work, that do exactly what you describe, but even that is based on what society lets them get away with, why blame them for being successful at 'survival of the fitests individual'? Is it's the lions fault when he catches a baby antelope? Or the fox a mice? Or the ant colony a caterpillar? Same here. You have much more to learn to see what the real problem is.. good luck

[@markpanko7732]

It dose not and will not exist until the riddle of gravity is solved

[@pegasusted2504]

ITS??? Bezos is bigger in space than Musk? He never was. Hasn't been to orbit. Can't make engines apparently. How does Shepard compare to F9, F9H? it doesn't go to orbit so it can't. Considering this is by the RI I am amazed at how poorly this has been put together? Is this actually a new video or was it made a few years ago? That may explain it more.

[@yianlei5045]

fantastic talk, except the teleportation part

[@SulixD]

It is totally unreasonable to completely disregard the possibility of stuff like warp drives. Sure it is just science fiction right now .. but who knows how far our science will evolve in the next million years?

[@intothevoid2046]

Another pretty naive outlook, I am sorry to say. It neglects, like so many other predictions, the growing problems humanity will have to face, or is already facing, on earth. Spaceflight might be driven by billionaires but only as they see a return of investment. Every technology listed in this video only evolved because it served a very broad range and large number of people who are willing to pay only small amount or money for it. Technology that doesn't solve problems on earth, like climate change or geopolitical situations will stay government funded and therefore lose funding as problems on earth keep causing rising costs. Elon Musk does not risk his own money for all his projects. they are funded paid launches for other purposes than getting to mars. For the majority of people actual interplanetary spaceflight will remain something that needs public money and the acceptance for spending that money on space endeavors will depend on how life on earth is developing. And that is not looking good.

[@LuciFeric137]

Mankind doesn't need the stars. The solar system is rich in resources.

[@theeverythingalmanac6299]

Why do people think it's cool to fawn over billionaires?

[@andykod77]

Warp bubbles is the future is it not? I saw a video stating so, or was I click baited yet again?

[@byrnemeister2008]

Click bait I’m afraid.

[@speedingatheist]

I find it very troubling to hear a guy fail to mention all the empty promises and actual fakes made by a musky guy. Not to mention a very big drawback of settling on Moon or Mars: it's Moon or Mars. Very few people would be willing to endure 'life' in a box in a toxic desert.

[@bluepaint9923]

china's chauvinistic ambition???

[@groznyentertainment]

Why didn't he mention venus landing?

[@Jesus.the.Christ]

Impey is ignoring the simple, basic economics that indicate there will never be a Martian colony.

[@apexpredator1018]

Never say never because "never" is MUCH longer than u will exist 🐜

[@Jesus.the.Christ]

@@apexpredator1018 There is no reason to have families living on Mars. There is zero economic activity to pursue. Impey is simply isn't clever. Not sure why he was given 40 minutes.

[@mustafizrahman2822]

1st

[@sicfxmusic]

Now you're under everyone

[@PipoBones]

Lol this guy simping for bezos if he thinks BO is anywhere near SpaceX . This guy has said some sus things in this talk.

[@W00PIE]

True. That really feels strange. SpaceX is _miles_ ahead of Bezos, a completely different order of magnitude. Uncle Jeff did not even reach an orbit yet.

[@JohnBarrett-gk3mr]

So out of date...

[@conradspamer2077]

All round a very weak presentation? This guy seems to be more concerned with space corporation politics that space itself. Musk is obviously way ahead of Bezos and Branson but just gets added as a sort of afterthought to the roundup of private space initiatives. As he gets into more detail of course there is nothing else really worth talking about. What really bothered me though was the apparent regurgitation of the naive perception that getting into space is about lifting a certain distance from the earth (rather than tangential velocity). Perhaps we should make a collection to send this astronomy professor straight up to the 250 km level he mentioned. Inside the craft there will be a pamphlet that explains why 140 000 km is the lowest sustainable geosynchronous orbit.

[@sevex9]

TONE DEAF. NOGAF.

[@oneworldonehome]

It looks bad because not only will we first have to contend with the growing challenges here on Earth, but also because when we exit the Solar System, we shall find ourselves in territory owned by others. Not only is the universe full of life but there is an alien intervention happening now on Earth, from those opportunistic races that seek to take advantage of our difficult situation. For those who wish to find out more about this, I recommend reading The Allies of Humanity briefings and the teachings of The New Message from God. They make the situation crystal clear, and I would bet my life thousandfold that what they present is the complete truth.

[@N0Xa880iUL]

wow

[@shakursmith4862]

Ivan. Nothing is worth betting your life. (Trust me, I’m an alien 👾)

[@thelastninja4825]

well we dont have any future on earth so why not

[@scottessex952]

electromagnetic propulsion systems you take a alumimum.shaped craft and place an electromagnetic field around it and you interact with the magnetic fields... also electromagnetism has the power to bend water around it so the oceans are also a.possibilty.. rockets are and never did work in a vaccum.

[@W00PIE]

Rockets never worked in a vacuum? 😄 There's nothing magical to it. Do some reading. The physics behind it is really easy to understand.

[@scottessex952]

@@W00PIE lol gasses cant exsist inside a.vaccum...

[@W00PIE]

@@scottessex952 Wrong. A "vacuum" is always just an approximation, there's always stuff in between, even in intergalactic space. Besides that, it does not even play a role here, because the propulsion comes from the conservation of momentum.

[@scottessex952]

@@W00PIE google gasses in a vaccum.. whos lying...

[@scottessex952]

@@W00PIE rockets are primative... we already have electromagnetic capabilities.. 👍

[@darkstarpyro5358]

You start the video off by lying about men going to the moon. The moon is moving away from us? really? lol

[@byrnemeister2008]

Yep, it’s really moving further away. We can measure it. We know why. Transfer of energy from Earths spin. What’s your doubt?