What If Reagan Had Died in 1981?

[@Alex-yy5wo]

Then it would’ve been another victim for the curse of Tippecanoe

[@helpyourcattodrive]

Your channel is awesome, my man. I love it all, the use of maps, the salient topics, your expertise. Much appreciated. No one else has topics like yours that I’ve seen.

[@JoshuaDHSW]

Great video. History would’ve been so much different without Reagan (mostly for good imo, but some not so good). Reaganomics is the reason the deficit is so high and the reason the middle class is worse off, so I hate Reagan for that. Also, although Reagan wasn’t as nuts as the Republicans today, I think Reagan’s extreme patriotism led the way to the Trumpism we see today. Something I will say about Reagan that is positive is that Reagan did help end the Cold War very well. Could another President have done just as well ending the Cold War like Reagan did? We’ll never know. But needless to say, Reagan definitely led our country in a different direction

[@JohnAsmith-rw6uo]

You full BS. Keep drinking the fascist left Kool-aif comrade.

[@StanSwan]

In fact Bill Clinton is more like Trump than Reagan ever was. Just say no matter the crime the economy is good/great and so what if I sexually assault anyone I want? You hatred of Reagan is really not founded on facts.

[@vinista256]

The connection with Trumpism is definitely there. RR was the first to utter the words “Make America Great Again,” and both RR and DJT are icons of that decade of glorifying wealth and greed.

[@randyjero4664]

I was a 10 year old home sick from school. My Mother and I watched this scary day. Just discovered you. You have so many great videos. Thank you!

[@SeanMunger]

Thanks so much! There's a lot here, hope you enjoy.

[@randyjero4664]

Also just subscribed to Age of Confusion. Will begin my listen today.

[@timnewman1172]

I was a freshman in High School... I remember they had an announcement, then rolled out the TV's and we all watched the news the rest of the day.

[@marklandwehr7604]

I was 9 at home I watched it on C-Span we had recently got cable Ronald Reagan was my aunt Catherine j landwehr employee he sold my great-aunt's modern kitchen for General Electric😊

[@TheAwsomeSawse]

I think the fact that this was just an “attempt” set us down the darkest timeline.

[@Aurun30]

yeahhhh nah dawg

[@capitollimitedproductions211]

I’m as much a Reagan hater as anyone, but from a humanity standpoint that’s very disrespectful.

[@xp8969]

​@@capitollimitedproductions211considering how disrespectful Reagan's presidency was to humanity it can be argued that ending it would have been a moral good

[@custos3249]

@@capitollimitedproductions211 Wishing deserved misfortune on evil people, especially given continued damage to the American populous, isn't disrespectful.

[@PrinceofDrill]

​@@Aurun30😂

[@williambamann1845]

This is a great video... I forgot that Reagan was only a few months into his first term when that happened.. Great idea / concept!

[@averydaymond1560]

This “what if” made me instantly think of the 1988 election. Had Reagan died Bush likely would’ve won in 84 at the top of the ticket then be not eligible for the 1988 election. Dukakis was at the top of the ticket on the democrat side in 88 and I think we would’ve ended up with a president Bob Dole in 1988.

[@the_black_douglas9041]

I love these what-if scenarios, so well done Sean. Do you think the Cold War continuing on indefinitely would have prevented the economic rise of China? I wonder… Fun fact - the band DEVO were having a contract dispute with Warner Bros around the time of the Hinckley attempt. To get back at Warners, DEVO used one of Hinkley’s “love” poems about Jodie Foster as the lyrics for a song, which had the effect that Warners had to pay royalties to Hinckley.

[@brucetucker4847]

At 11:45, you left out Andrew Johnson, who ran for re-election in 1868 but did not win the nomination. However, Johnson was from a different party than the president he succeeded, and it was the Democratic nomination he sought and failed to win in 1868.

[@CommonSense1993]

Also Chester Arthur, Millard Filmore, and hell even John Tyler, they just failed to win the nomination

[@hectorlabbe]

Very interesting! This gentleman knows his subject 😉 Thank you!

[@AuoraWolf5911]

Finally somebody answers this

[@donovandelaney3171]

Garfield was killed by his doctor. Not his shooter.

[@JLFAN2009]

The doctor did not shoot him, though: you're viewing the matter through the lenses of modern medicine, which did not exist as of 1881. That both Garfield and McKinley could have been saved by the medicine that saved Reagan is basically an acknowledged fact -- as is the fact that Reagan likely would have died, had he been treated by the same type of doctors who treated Garfield and McKinley. That's just how things go ...

[@brucetucker4847]

@@JLFAN2009 Some think Garfield might have lived if he had received no professional medical care at all. The bullet didn't kill him, he died of an infection that was possibly caused and certainly exacerbated by the doctors probing his wound with unsterilized instruments and fingers. OTOH the infection may have been inevitable with such a deep wound. Garfield's assassin claimed at his trial that Garfield was killed by malpractice, not by the shot, but from a legal perspective that argument had no merit then and still doesn't today.

[@bulkvanderhuge9006]

@@brucetucker4847 Lincoln's Doctor did the same

[@guillemedina7908]

I thought of the fucking cat

[@58twright]

I always think of that too

[@Icecool1981]

There is one interesting side note to this question. Had Bush succeeded Reagan, he would have had to appoint a new vice president according to the 25th amendment. That person would have become the SIXTH vice president of the United States in just EIGHT years!

[@Thirteentheon]

I know that this is a two year old video, but it is a bit odd seeing House of Leaves buried in there with all of your history books lol

[@matthewrobinson2172]

I’m surprised you suggest the 1981 tax act was primarily responsible for the subsequent recession when it was a fiscal loosening as far as I’m aware. Surely the Paul Volcker monetary tightening was the driver of the recession, usually presented as necessary to squeeze out persistent inflation.

[@bengeorge9323]

amazing vid, well done

[@4CardsMan]

At one point, Reagan almost agreed not to respond with nuclear weapons to a Soviet attack in Europe. His advisors panicked and talked him out of it.

[@CanadianMemorials]

very nice video

[@StephaniJohnson-o8t]

It was my impression that Bush may have known more about the Iran Contra than Regan did. Bush was

[@robertortiz-wilson1588]

Exactly.

[@otisdylan9532]

That very well may be, since in general, Bush was better informed about things than Reagan was.

[@sartainja]

Very realistic presentation of “what if” history. Found it interesting, engaging, and informative - the very best type of history. Thank you for preparing and posting your videos on KZbin. Find them very entertaining compared to the AI generated content that has taken over the platform like kudzu.

[@janerkenbrack3373]

When someone poses an historical what-if question, my mind always goes to an early Saturday Night Live episode hosted by Kirk Douglas, where they asked: What if Spartacus had a Piper Cub? So I was prepared to be amused. But that was actually quite interesting. There are far more things that might have shifted in America, such as the direction and rise of modern fascism. Would the death of Reagan have accelerated that? Or stymied it?

[@brianarbenz1329]

SNL also had a skit very applicable to Sean’s video - A panel discussion late in 1981: “What if Reagan had Lived?” The panelists agreed that the outrageous skyrocketing of the federal deficit would not have happened, the nation would not be in a severe recession, and the proposal that ketchup be counted as a vegetable on school lunches would certainly never have happened under such a nice guy as Reagan.

[@janerkenbrack3373]

@@brianarbenz1329 Lol!

[@brober]

For Murica's vanished middle class, Reagan was the crunch of the grave diggers spade.

[@bulkvanderhuge9006]

Excellent analogy

[@robertortiz-wilson1588]

Such a cliché and delusional comment.

[@bulkvanderhuge9006]

@@robertortiz-wilson1588 It's only cliché and delusional to a Fox "News" watcher.

[@sebastianbelcher5354]

​@@robertortiz-wilson1588Delusional? Reagan proudly waged open war on the working class.

[@michaelkappes8226]

@@robertortiz-wilson1588 nothing delusional about it -- Reagan's economic policies decimated the middle class -- which is why when someone complained to GW Bush about having to work three jobs just to make ends meet, he replied with "Uniquely American, isn't it?"

[@cmderinchief]

An interesting listen!

[@timnewman1172]

What if Al Haig actually was in charge?

[@SeanMunger]

Given the chaos of the Reagan administration, he probably was.

[@fshoaps]

Gary Hart wins the nomination in 1988 I say.

[@endodouble6691]

"Fortunately for him and everyone" Debatable

[@vinista256]

Interesting counterfactual … I totally agree that Bush would have handled the AIDS pandemic better (he famously named young Anthony Fauci as an example of a “hero” in one of his debates with Dukakis). I also doubt whether Iran-Contra would have happened on his watch. Not sure about whether his SCOTUS picks would have been better, though-he did appoint Clarence Thomas, after all.

[@TangledUpInBlue631]

America might not have needed to become kinder and gentler had Reagan been stopped.

[@thekidfromcleveland3944]

I have 2 questions: 1. Would Bush have been a advocate of the 600 ship navy program and thus reactivate the 4 Iowa Class Battleships 2. Does this change the likelihood of the Challenger Disaster ever happening in the first place

[@robertbowman9108]

What does a 600 ship navy have to do with the shuttle blowing up?

[@thekidfromcleveland3944]

@robertbowman9108 no does Reagan who was a advocate of the teacher in space program not being there mean that initiative still goes thru which means the pressure cooker known as sts 51L isn't a thing so it easier to justify a delay till warmer weather. It's two different questions

[@timnewman1172]

​@@robertbowman9108Money... lots of it. Reagan spent Trillions on military/defense without much accountability. Reagan wanted a big American "win" to vindicate the Viet Nam war, and was willing to bet the economic future by rampantly expanding the National Debt...

[@Cre80s]

@@thekidfromcleveland3944 That's a massive stretch. If you're suggesting that Reagan simply expressing support for just one of the hundreds of missions that one flight was expected to perform is the cause for too much pressure to continue despite the danger, then such a pressure would obviously still exist if Reagan was dead, it would simply be postumous, "in his memory", not unlike Kennedy's for the Apollo missions. That aside, that's probably the most absurd "six degrees of Kevin Bacon" breadcrumb trail of blame. Fruity in fact.

[@bwweaver78]

I thought that Tyler and Johnson each wanted to run, but the Democrats wouldn’t nominate them.

[@robertortiz-wilson1588]

Yeah.

[@richardbecker7421]

I don't think there is any doubt that Bill Bradley would have been the Democrat's nominee in 1988.

[@elanless-rs7nr]

the early 80's recession was the result of the fed increasing interest rates to address inflation

[@motored6089]

Exactly. It was a calculated and deliberate effort by Volcker more than anything associated with Reagan. Tax cuts take about 2 years to have any effect anyway. Rate adjustments, however, are much more immediate. Reagan was the best President of my lifetime and he presided - nay, created - a truly great period in American history. No decade since has been as great as the 1980s. Sorry, 90s apologists: you kids were too young and you missed the better decade.

[@CaptHiltz]

And we still have a huge and unecessary problem with guns in the U.S.

[@spaghettimeatballs6352]

A much better world

[@Frozo-nt2ky]

No

[@Ilovemylife920]

just no

[@slambam2665]

@@Frozo-nt2ky yes

[@slambam2665]

@@Ilovemylife920 just yes

[@michaelkappes8226]

Unpopular opinion here, but I think this country and the world would be in a better place if Reagan had not survived the assassination attempt in 1981.

[@jec1ny]

The deep recession of 1981-83 was not the product of the tax cuts. It was the product of the Federal Reserve's decision to hike interest rates to 21% in an effort to crush the runaway inflation Reagan had inherited on taking office. This precipitated a massive contraction in money supply and credit. The decision was mostly pushed by Fed chairman Paul Volcker and remains controversial among economists and historians to the present day. While the recession was severe, the Fed's shock treatment is generally credited with ending the long running inflation that plagued the country throughout the 1970s and early 80s. Whether lesser measures might have worked remains a subject of often heated debate. That said, you are correct that the tax cuts, coupled with massively increased military spending, caused a huge explosion in the national debt which Reagan's successor Bush 41 had to deal with. To his credit, Bush made the politically unpopular decision to raise taxes which likely cost him reelection in 1992. Beyond that I don't really strongly disagree with your "what if" guesswork. But history is shaped by events, with often weird and unpredictable consequences. All that I am comfortable saying with certainty is that if Reagan had died, the world would have been a much different place.

[@otisdylan9532]

I don't agree with the inflation being entirely inherited. Reagan's large deficits were a contributing factor, and those were caused by the tax cuts and the high military spending. So indirectly, the tax cuts played a role in the recession, but I'll agree that the high interest rates were the primary direct cause.

[@robertortiz-wilson1588]

SDI especially, along with near unprecedented military spending, psychological scare tactics, diplomatic, and bold inspirational rallying in renewed self-assurance and convection, and not only containing, but rolling back communist movements worldwide were all vital for wearing down the Soviets at unprecedented speeds and magnitude. It was from this increasingly hopeless position, that the party heads eventually agreed to nominate someone like Gorbachev. He in turn not only feared SDI, but eventually became willing to incrementally liberalize in exchange for access to global markets, and Reagan’s constant pressure slowly being released. Without this, relatively increased media access, increased information flow from in and outside the Soviet bloc, and increased allowance for voicing dissatisfaction from newly emboldened citizens would not have taken place as they had and to such a relatively quick and “sudden” degree. This also goes for concessions on lessening the heavy hand of the military and oppressive authoritarian state apparatus at home and abroad. Taking their chance and initiative brought an end to the Eastern Block one by one. Then finally the Soviet Union, out of time and popular will, itself crumbled. I would also just like to argue that having less strict constructionist Supreme Court justices on the court doesn’t make it more moderate unless one has very specific criteria for how to define the so-called, moderate. I would argue and phrase it that it’s simply a different legal philosophy. One that has precedent as a position all the way back to the Constitution’s ratification. What I’m getting at is that from another point of view, the moderate position could itself be closer, strict constructionist views for what the Constitution allows as a “rule.” The first major tax bill may have contributed to the recession in someway, but in many ways a relatively minor recession was likely needed regardless. It’s also important to remember that Reagan worked with the Democrat controlled Congress on taxes several times. Meaning at times, Reagan relented and allowed for slight temporary tax increases. He arguably finished what he set out to do with the tax cuts he got passed in 1986 (No flat tax could be obtained.) The cuts incentivized more job openings based on the numbers. More citizens got to keep and then utilize more of their paychecks, which helped them feel more secure and benefited the wider economy. As the money supply was also being tightened in direct relation to the domestic economy and interest rates still high from an actual responsible Fed led by Paul Volcker, stagflation was eventually broken, and interest rates could go down. Stimulating more accelerated, but balanced growth overall for nearly the rest of the entire decade, and arguably continuing on with different degrees tax variations into the 90s. I agree with you that Bush likely didn’t have the full will, let alone the rallying ability, to continue to push for what Reagan had overall across both of his terms in office. I very much appreciate you pointing out what a tragedy it would’ve been had Reagan actually been another president that was assassinated. The distressing national mood would likely have been that the pain of the 70s had continued into the new decade that was supposed to be more one of hopeful and renewal.

[@deafviolinist]

shadow fire will lead us.. up and to the right.. up and to the right

[@donovandelaney3171]

The Star Wars program was created to be the next Space Race. They were going to build space stations in space and on the Moon.

[@dogvom]

I think Ted Kennedy would probably have run again in 1988 in this new timeline. And he would very probably have won.

[@rjford3306]

So basically if he died we would be in the “better” timeline is what I’m getting 🤔

[@robertortiz-wilson1588]

Absolutely not.

[@maxsonthonax1020]

How come you're such a fan of nothing-burgers?

[@TheStarTrekApologist]

The Recession had nothing to do with the Taz cuts. I mean it is not only to close but it was more caused by the Feds raised interest rates. It was more a resudule of the Carter Admin. It takes many years before the Tax cut would benifit the economy. If anything it probably would pulled us out of the Recession. The Defict was a result of all the deals that Regan had to make with the the Democrat majority just to get it passed. It is possible that with the death of Reagan not so many deal would have had to be made. It may have been imperitive to Democrats to vote for it, for Reagan if he had passed.

[@motored6089]

Exactly. It was a calculated and deliberate effort by Volcker more than anything associated with Reagan. Tax cuts take about 2 years to have any effect anyway. Rate adjustments, however, are much more immediate. Reagan was the best President of my lifetime and he presided - nay, created - a truly great period in American history. No decade since has been as great as the 1980s. Sorry, 90s zealots: you kids were too young and you missed the better decade.

[@brucetucker4847]

Al Haig would have been in control.

[@orion10x10]

Sean, I appreciate the facts you present but sometimes you say something like "thankfully Reagan got away" which makes me want to stop watching

[@orion10x10]

He worked AGAINST the Actors union who helped his career which lead to him becoming president, not to mention the war crimes that go without saying edit: YOU BRING UP THE CONTRAS AND STILL SAY IT'S GOOD HE GOT AWAY??? 😂 bro, it feels like an edgy joke

[@SeanMunger]

However much I may disagree with a president's politics or priorities, it doesn't mean I would cheer at the prospect of him being killed by an assassin. That's taking politics too far, I think.

[@averinthine]

@@SeanMunger you take great pains to humanise the subjects of your videos, which is commendable, but this stance fails to extend the same courtesy to all the untold numbers of people whose lives are destroyed by the very real outcomes of political action. i wouldn't expect you to cheer at the prospect an assassination, that wouldn't be a historian's job, but neither is it a historian's job to cheer at the failure of such an attempt, and i think it's disingenous to portray this as a case of mere disagreement. as a matter of historical fact, some people would've wished for reagan to have died, at least some portion of them would've likely been tangibly better off in some way if he had, and your speculative claim that his survival was fortunate "for everyone" distracts from your otherwise sound analysis for no clear reason.

[@orion10x10]

@@averinthine Eloquently put

[@orion10x10]

@@SeanMunger Personally I think Reagan took his politics too far with the contras, neoliberal economic policy and the myth of the welfare queen.